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Indian companies across multiple sectors have reported disappointing results in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, notes a new JM Financials report. Consequently, their poor performance has triggered stock price corrections for affected companies. The brunt of this weaker than expected earnings was largely borne by consumer centric sectors like FMCG (fast moving consumer goods), retail, and auto, which slacked largely due to dampened urban demand. For instance, India's largest automaker, Maruti Suzuki, reported a 5% YoY decline in its total domestic passenger vehicle wholesales, largely on the back of pent-up inventory. Similarly, Honda reported a staggering 23% YoY dip in its total sales during October 2024. A recent report by Bernstein noted that around 48% of the companies listed on the NSE100 index missed their earnings estimate for Q2FY25, the highest since March 2020. Most companies have mentioned deteriorated domestic demand, urban slowing, macroeconomic risk, and margin pressures as the main reasons behind the dip. "The quarter's earnings have made investors nervous," noted the JM Financials report. The challenging environment stems from multiple factors: softening consumer demand, rising input costs, and companies' limited ability to increase prices. Moreover, this is not limited to just one quarter. Companies have been reporting weak, single-digit earnings growth for the last six consecutive quarters. Data from India Data Hub also suggests that corporate profits of listed companies plunged by as much as 3.4% during the quarter ended September 30, 2024. This is in stark contrast to the year-ago period, where they had shot up by over 40% The oil and gas sector had a difficult quarter, with refiners hit by weak margins and city gas distributors struggling with higher input costs. Financial institutions showed mixed results. While government-owned banks reported strong numbers, microfinance institutions and some private lenders faced massive difficulties with their unsecured loans. Most notable amongst this was the case of IndusInd Bank, which saw its net profits dip by 40% amidst burgeoning provisions, which climbed 87% to Rs 1,820 crore in Q2, as against Rs 974 crore reported in the year-ago period. <h2>Markets head southwards</h2>The selling trend by FPIs has dragged down the major Indian indices, the Nifty 50 and Sensex, both of which have dropped by around 8% since the beginning of this selling spree in October. According to National Securities Depository Ltd. (NSDL) data, FPIs offloaded equities worth a significant Rs 19,994 crore in just the first five trading sessions of November last week. The impact is clearly visible on Indian stock markets. Data suggests that while every sector in October closed the month in red, auto, oil and gas, and consumer durables were the most badly hit, each declining by as much as 10% during the month. Another indicator underlining the inherent weakness of the market was that the month saw only 242 stocks hit their 52-week high, significantly below the usual monthly average of 310.

India Inc. stares at an earnings dearth in Q2, FMCG, auto, and consumer durables falter

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Earnings likely grew for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3.</li><li>Top strategists are eyeing 2025 results ahead of what's likely a mid-single-digit advance.</li></ul>Corporate earnings are on pace for their best non-pandemic year since 2018, and market strategists expect the party to continue in the upcoming earnings season and into 2025.Interest rates and inflation have been investors' primary concerns this year, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-indicators-recession-warning-signs-bca-research-berezin-2024-9">worries about the labor market</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-jobs-report-sentiment-consumers-elections-recession-inflation-mortgage-rates-2024-9">growth</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rates-pandemic-lows-inflation-supply-chain-geopolitical-bofa-mensah-2024-10">rising geopolitical tensions</a> have also sucked up plenty of oxygen — even though economists generally agree that a recession isn't imminent.Through all that noise, S&amp;P 500 profits have steadily risen and are set to end the year up 9.5%, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_092724.pdf">according to Factset</a>. That's the biggest jump for earnings in six years, other than 2021's robust recovery. Analysts believe 2025 will be even better, with growth of nearly 15% in the cards.<div type="image" title="2024 earnings as of Q2" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984264" hostid="261" sizebytes="55446"></div>Business Insider spoke with six investment chiefs, strategists, and money managers about the earnings and economic trends to watch in the Q3 earnings season and 2025 — plus how investors can position their portfolios for success.<h2 id="cb45912e-0004-415b-94ba-d8fc7736b77e">Q3 earnings will give clues about consumers</h2>Barring a major surprise, investors will learn starting in mid-October that earnings rose for the fifth straight quarter. Profits grew 4.6% in Q3, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_092724.pdf">according to Factset's latest projections</a>, though that would be down substantially from the 7.8% mark that analysts called for at the end of June.However, analysts have a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/why-do-analysts-low-ball-earnings-forecasts">habit of underselling earnings</a>. Nearly 79% of S&amp;P 500 firms beat Q2 estimates — partially due to a low bar, though results were quite strong at 11.2% growth.<div type="image" title="Factset beat rate Q2 2024" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984261" hostid="261" sizebytes="37156"></div>"What we've seen over the past few quarters, I really wouldn't describe as 'blowout growth' that sets up for disappointment going forward," said Mike Reynolds, Glenmede's vice president of investment strategy. Mid-single-digit to low-double-digit growth is "pretty sustainable," he added.<div type="image" title="Factset Q2 2024" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984259" hostid="261" sizebytes="29018"></div>Profit margins will be in the crosshairs since <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-august-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-rate-cuts-2024-9">inflation is slowing</a>, said Anthony Saglimbene, the chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. He's also keeping a close eye on signs about the strength of consumer spending, or lack thereof, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-wage-growth-investing-strategy-stocks-to-buy-goldman-sachs-2024-9">as wage growth dissipates</a>."There's been a lot of pricing power — not only in technology, but across a lot of the services and goods sides of the equation," Saglimbene said. "Can you hold profit margins in an environment where maybe your costs are becoming more stable, but demand is starting to slow?"Demand is either softening or steadfast, depending on your perspective. Joe Quinlan — who's head of markets strategy at Merrill and Private Bank, Bank of America — recently remarked that there's a strikingly wide gap between high-income households and those who aren't well off.The strategy chief recently wrote that a mere 4.4% of US households make up 15% of personal consumption, which is the <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA">backbone of GDP</a>. The rich are disproportionately driving economic growth because of the wealth effect, which means they're confident since stocks are rising. Meanwhile, Quinlan noted that <a target="_blank" href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx">roughly 40% of US households don't own stocks</a>."They're the ones — the lower-income households — definitely feeling the squeeze of higher prices. I know inflation has come down when we look at the metrics, but prices for food, rent, insurance — they're still elevated," Quinlan said, adding that this is limiting disposable income.Although weakness among lower-income households is troubling, strategists don't think it will show up in corporate earnings since consumers broadly are holding up."The consumer is pretty healthy," Reynolds said. "There's maybe some warning signs on the margin on credit-card balances and delinquencies, but it's really not enough to break the camel's back on earnings."<h2 id="e9ed5200-3a27-426c-b63a-a65a628a84e6">Why earnings will thrive in 2025</h2>Although investors have only seen about half of 2024 earnings, which are on track to rise 10%, it's already time to look to 2025."As the year continues, I do think it's not about earnings for this year — it's the trajectory of earnings for next year," said Andrew Slimmon, a lead portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.<div type="image" title="Factset 2024 earnings" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984262" hostid="261" sizebytes="29164"></div>Corporate profits should stay strong and can potentially improve, strategists say, provided that the US economy doesn't slow too much."If the macroeconomic picture holds together, there's an expectation that we should see a bit of a re-acceleration in earnings growth," said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.Quinlan agrees and predicted that "earnings will reflect the dynamic and resiliency of the US economy that we just closed the quarter on."Michael Smith, the head of the growth equity team at Allspring Global Investments, said his research also indicates that companies are healthy, at least compared to a few years ago."We talk to our companies quite frequently and do our own work talking to their customers and suppliers, and we really feel like there are still some pockets of strong demand through our economy," Smith said.And even if economic growth comes in light, corporate earnings won't necessarily suffer."There's not always a one-for-one relationship between economic growth and earnings growth," Reynolds said. "You can still see earnings growth at a pretty robust level, even if economic growth moderates to some extent. So again, there's correlation there, but definitely not direct causation."Bears have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-bubble-sp500-outlook-valuations-1929-2000-hussman-2024-9">long warned that this market is overvalued</a>, but unless earnings suddenly plummet, Slimmon suggested that those fears are overstated."As long as Q3 of this year is OK, I think that's where we're going to start next year with close to $280 earnings estimates for the S&amp;P," Slimmon said. "And that is supportive of a stock market that trades kind of closer to 6,000."Analysts' estimates may be ambitious, Saglimbene said. He suspects that Q4 expectations will recede alongside projections for Q1 and Q2 of 2025, though that often happens before quarters."That could be a little bit of a headwind for the market," Saglimbene said. "But again, if we're growing and profits are growing year-over-year, I think the market will look past some of that."Saglimbene later added: "We might not grow by 15% next year in an environment where the economy's growing 2%, but we might grow 7% or 8%. That's a normal earnings growth kind of environment, and I think that's enough to continue to push the market higher."<h2 id="06369d93-53a3-422f-8a02-436b2da92292">3 top places to invest heading into Q3 earnings</h2>When asked which parts of the market look most attractive, strategists consistently identified three sectors: communication services, healthcare, and technology.Large-cap growth stocks have carried the market higher for years thanks to their supercharged earnings. But that has changed in recent months, Saglimbene noted.The strategy chief expects to see broader profit growth, especially in economically sensitive sectors like consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, materials, and real estate. They may also have more upside since they're cheaper."The areas that have not seen the best profit growth, like cyclicals outside of technology, their profit growth trends could actually improve more than expected because the economy is not headed for recession, because growth is remaining positive, because consumers are still spending," Saglimbene said.Smith agrees that industrials and consumer-focused sectors are worth a look, as are tech and healthcare companies. His investing strategy is centered around finding growth stocks on the so-called "right side of change" that also happen to be discounted. He said he's found more opportunities in small- and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-2025-mid-caps-investing-outlook-goldman-sachs-2024-9">mid-sized stocks</a> lately."Money has to find a home somewhere, and it tends to flow to where it gets treated the best," Smith said. "Right now, the relative opportunity is down-cap."

Here's how to invest in the Q3 earnings season as profits re-accelerate despite misplaced recession myths

New Delhi: The merger of media assets of Reliance Industries and the India business of global media house the Walt Disney is expected to be complete by the end of the third quarter of this fiscal, according to a regulatory filing by billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led group. The fair trade regulator CCI has already approved the merger of Viacom 18 and <keyword id="19976122" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Star-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Star India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Star India">Star India</keyword> and NCLT (National Company Law Tribunal) has sanctioned the scheme regarding it. "The companies are in the process of obtaining other requisite approvals for the completion of the transaction and transaction closer is expected in 3Q FY 25," informed Reliance Industries on Monday in its quarter earning statement. The merger of Reliance group-controlled media assets - TV18 Broadcast and E18 - with Network18 Media &amp; Investments has already been sanctioned by the NCLT and was made effective on October 3, it said. Earlier on September 27, the government approved the transfer of licenses relating to Non News &amp; Current Affairs TV channels held by media entities of Reliance Industries to Star India. "The Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, Government of India, vide its order dated September 27, has granted its approval for transfer of Licenses relating to Non News &amp; Current Affairs TV channels held by <keyword id="19976121" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Viacom18" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Viacom18" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Viacom18">Viacom18</keyword> Media Private Limited in favour of Star India," it had said. Viacom18 is the holding company that owns the media and entertainment business of billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries and Bodhi Tree Systems. Both sides are in the final stages of the merger, making some adjustments in the business as per the Competition Commission of India (CCI) directions. On August 30, the NCLT had approved the scheme of merger of Viacom18 Media and Digital 18 Media, holding media and entertainment assets of Reliance Industries with Star India. The scheme had proposed the transfer and vesting of Media Operations Undertaking from Viacom 18 and Jio Cinema into Digital18, which is a subsidiary of Viacom 18. This would be followed by "demerger, transfer and vesting of V18 Undertaking from Digital 18 into Star India". The merger of the media assets of Reliance Industries and The Walt Disney Co.'s India business will create the country's largest media empire worth over Rs 70,000 crore. Earlier, the CCI had said it has cleared the "proposed combination involving Reliance Industries Ltd, Viacom18 Media Pvt Ltd, Digital18 Media Ltd, Star India Pvt Ltd and Star Television Productions Ltd, subject to the compliance of voluntary modifications". Viacom18 is part of the RIL group, and Star India is wholly owned by The <keyword id="19986269" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Walt-Disney-Company" source="keywords">Walt Disney Company</keyword>. Star Television Productions, a company incorporated in the British Virgin Islands, is owned indirectly by Walt Disney. The CCI, however, did not disclose voluntary modifications in the original deal made by the two parties. As per the deal, Mukesh Ambani-led RIL and its affiliates will hold 63.16 per cent of the combined entity that will house two streaming services and 120 television channels. Walt Disney will hold the remaining 36.84 per cent stake in the combined entity, which will also be India's largest media house. Reliance Industries has also agreed to invest close to Rs 11,500 crore into the joint venture to give it the muscle to fight rivals like Japan's Sony and Netflix. Nita Ambani, wife of billionaire and RIL Chairman <keyword id="19916798" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mukesh-Ambani" source="keywords">Mukesh Ambani</keyword>, will head the joint venture, while Uday Shankar will be the vice-chairperson.

Reliance expects to complete merger with Disney's India business in Q3

As the results season kicks in, the <keyword id="20097634" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="quarterly-earnings" source="keywords">quarterly earnings</keyword> numbers of several <keyword id="22405488" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="blue-chip-firms" source="keywords">blue-chip firms</keyword> — such as <keyword id="19906778" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Infosys" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Infosys" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Infosys">Infosys</keyword> and Reliance Industries — along with <keyword id="20837523" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-trends" source="keywords">global trends</keyword> and <keyword id="20223116" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="trading-activity" source="keywords">trading activity</keyword> of foreign investors, will determine <keyword id="22405487" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-market-movement" source="keywords">equity market movement</keyword> in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic <keyword id="22405489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation-data" source="keywords">WPI inflation data</keyword> for June — scheduled to be announced on Monday — will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram. Among major quarterly earnings to be tracked this week are from HDFC Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Auto, BPCL, JSW Steel, Asian Paints, Infosys, and Reliance Industries. "Q1 earnings will be a key focus this week as numerous companies, including heavyweights Infosys, and Reliance, are set to release their results. Additionally, <keyword id="22194639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pre-Budget-discussions" source="keywords">pre-Budget discussions</keyword> are expected to contribute to market volatility," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said. On the global front, a significant focus will be on China. The country is scheduled to announce its GDP and Industrial Production (IIP) numbers, Meena said. "Other global factors to watch include the speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman, US retail sales figures, and macroeconomic data from Japan," he added. Meanwhile, IT services company HCL Tech on Friday posted a 20.4 per cent rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,257 crore for the June-ended quarter and gave a revenue growth guidance of 3-5 per cent for FY25 on GenAI diversification and strong operational execution. "On Monday, markets will react to India's inflation data. Key results this week include Jio Financial Services, HDFC Life, Asian Paints, LTIMindtree, Infosys, Wipro, JSW Steel, Paytm, etc. Also globally, investors will take cues from China's GDP numbers, US core retail sales data, and ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision," Siddhartha Khemka, Head, Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. Retail inflation increased to four-month high of 5.08 per cent in June as food items, including vegetables, became dearer, according to government data released on Friday. Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said, "We expect stock-specific moves to gain traction due to the ongoing earnings season; indeed, IT will be in the limelight due to the good start to the earnings and outlook." In the week ahead, economic data like China GDP, EuroZone CPI inflation, ECB policy, and the US Fed chair speech will be watched by investors to get cues on market momentum, Nair added. On a weekly basis, the BSE benchmark jumped 522.74 points, or 0.65 per cent, while the Nifty climbed 178.3 points, or 0.73 per cent. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 622 points, or 0.78 per cent, to settle at a record closing level of 80,519.34 on Friday. During the day, it zoomed 996.17 points, or 1.24 per cent, to hit an all-time high of 80,893.51. The NSE Nifty surged 186.20 points, or 0.77 per cent, to settle at a record closing high of 24,502.15. Intra-day, it jumped 276.25 points, or 1.13 per cent, to hit a new lifetime peak of 24,592.20.

Trading activity to hinge on Q1 results, global trends in holiday-shortened week: analysts

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks tumbled on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq suffering its worst decline of 2024.</li><li>Tesla missed earnings estimates for the second quarter, and Alphabet's YouTube ad revenue missed.</li></ul>The technology sector led US stocks lower Wednesday, with the Nasdaq plunging 3% as it headed for its worst trading day of the year.Investors fled the tech sector amid disappointing earnings on Tuesday, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-tsla-earnings-call-report-live-updates-2024-7">Tesla missing estimates</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/googl-stock">Alphabet</a> reporting that YouTube ad revenue fell short of expectations last quarter. Tesla shares were down more than 10% at 12:50 p.m. ET, trading at $220.85, while Alphabet shares fell 5% to $174.40."This is the fourth successive quarter of earnings misses, a first for Elon Musk's visionary EV maker," David Morrison, a senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said of Tesla in a note. "The question is how this will affect sentiment going forward? Will today's sell-off prove to be an isolated, knee-jerk reaction which quickly dissipates? Or could it poison the well as the Q2 earnings season picks up?"Investors are eyeing a slew of coming high-profile earnings reports, with Meta, Apple, and Amazon on deck to present their financials next week.On the economic front, Thursday will see the reveal of second-quarter GDP figures, and the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure is set to be published on Friday. The personal consumption expenditures index is expected to show inflation continued to cool last month, with prices rising by 2.5%. GDP, meanwhile, is expected to clock in at 2.1%, higher than the revised first-quarter reading of 1.4%.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after midday on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,456.69, down 1.78%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,015.58, down 0.85% (-342.51 points).</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,469.09, down 2.95%.</li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-signals-flash-outlook-healthy-bull-rally-more-upside-2024-7">There are four bullish signals</a> pointing to more gains ahead for the stock market, Bank of America said.</li><li>There's a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-the-big-rotation-trade-is-from-cash-to-stocks-2024-7">big rotation from cash to stocks</a> — and it could help push the S&amp;P 500 up 17% by the end of the year, according to UBS.</li><li>The stock market is approaching <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-q2-gdp-pce-earnings-drive-stocks-higher-2024-7">two catalysts that could help spark the next leg of the bull run</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-outlook-inflation-housing-job-market-unemployment-economy-2024-7">The Fed is going to cut rates only once in 2024</a> as shelter inflation is too high and the job market remains too hot, Vanguard said.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Oil futures were up. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 0.9% to $77.65 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was up 0.7% to $81.57 a barrel.<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> inched higher 0.4% to $2,417 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dropped two basis points to 4.218%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> inched up to $66,723.</li></ul>

Nasdaq tumbles 3% in worst day of the year amid tech-earnings rout

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tesla closed 22% higher on Thursday, its best day in years after posting strong earnings.</li><li>Analysts at JPMorgan caution that some of the automaker's growth drivers aren't sustainable.</li></ul>Tesla's earnings beat fueled a huge rally for the stock on Thursday, but JPMorgan is urging caution.Analysts at the bank said that while the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-tsla-earnings-call-report-live-updates-2024-10?_gl=1*1b1iqo9*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTc3NDk1OC4zMDguMS4xNzI5Nzc1Nzk4LjYwLjAuMA..#wedbush-analyst-dan-ives-sticks-with-bullish-view-on-tesla-despite-recent-volatility?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">strong earnings</a> should boost the stock in the short term, the automaker's growth drivers might not be sustainable in the coming quarters.The analysts correctly called the big reaction in the stock on Thursday post-earnings, with shares rising 22%, but they added that they see some caveats to the company's outlook. "However, we at the same time see several potentially unsustainable drivers of 3Q's better earnings and cash flow performance."The analysts pointed in particular to Tesla's near-record sales of regulatory credits. Tesla can sell credits it receives for producing electric cars to other companies that don't meet government emissions requirements.It's a hugely profitable business, and the credits generated $739 million for Tesla in the most recent quarter, the second-highest amount after the previous quarter's $890 million. While the credits are a huge profit driver in the near term, JPMorgan analysts said that won't last as other automakers introduce their own EVs and buy fewer credits from competitors like Tesla."Investors should be cautious about capitalizing the earnings generated from these (100% margin) credits, given that one of the tenets of the Tesla bull case is the large scale electrification of the automotive industry," the analysts wrote. "As other automakers broaden their electric offerings, they should over time be in a position to generate their own credits, negating and eventually eliminating the flow of competitor payments to Tesla."The analysts also pointed to large working capital benefits, which they say are unsustainable.Tesla saw a large beat on free cash flow in the most recent quarter, but that was in part due to a large increase in the amount due to its suppliers and other accrued liabilities, the analysts say.Tesla has only ever generated more cash from an increase in accounts payable in one other quarter, but at that time, deliveries and production both grew much faster, the analysts said. They wrote in the note that this suggests that this driver of the quarter's strong cash flow is unsustainable and possibly reversing."Automakers are expected to generate cash from working capital as sales rise, given timing differences arising from the favorable trade terms they enjoy with suppliers, but digging more deeply into the benefit, we note only in one quarter has Tesla ever generated more cash from an increase in accounts payable than it did in 3Q24," the analysts said.The automaker reported earnings per share of $0.62 for the third quarter, outpacing analysts' expectations of $0.51. Its operating profit came in at $2.7 billion, exceeding expectations of $2.0 billion and marking a 54% increase from a year ago. The company also announced that its Cybertruck <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cybertruck-profit-2024-10">has reached profitability</a>.JPMorgan rates Tesla "Underweight" with a December 2025 price target of $135 a share, 48% lower than its Thursday closing price of $260.48.

Tesla earnings have reinvigorated investors but some growth drivers look 'unsustainable,' JPMorgan says

<keyword id="19938772" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reliance-Industries-Ltd" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reliance Industries Ltd" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reliance Industries Ltd">Reliance Industries Ltd</keyword> on Monday reported an almost flat March quarter net profit, while its annual earnings hit a record high on the back of a recovery in its core oil and petrochemicals business and sustained momentum across the consumer-facing telecom and retail businesses. The oil-to-telecom-and-retail conglomerate's consolidated net profit stood at Rs 18,951 crore, or Rs 28.01 per share, in January-March quarter of the 2023-24 fiscal compared to Rs 19,299 crore, or Rs 28.52 a share, a year ago, according to a company's stock exchange filing. The profit was, however, higher quarter-on-quarter when compared to Rs 17,265 crore in October-December period. For the full fiscal FY24 (April 2023 to March 2024), Reliance posted a record net profit of Rs 69,621 crore as compared to Rs 66,702 crore earnings in the preceding financial year. Reliance also became the first Indian company to hit Rs 10 lakh crore turnover in FY24 when revenue from operations rose 2.6 per cent from Rs 9.74 lakh crore in 2022-23. The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business, the main milch cow, posted a rise in profitability annually as well as sequentially, while retail business' earnings rose on new store openings despite lower footfalls. The firm helmed by billionaire <keyword id="19916798" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mukesh-Ambani" source="keywords">Mukesh Ambani</keyword> saw telecom revenues soar as it outpaced competition in subscriber addition and data traffic. While quarterly EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) was up 14.3 per cent year-on-year to Rs 47,150 crore, registering growth across all businesses, the revenue from operations rose almost 11 per cent to Rs 2.64 lakh crore. The mainstay oil refining and petrochemicals business, called O2C, posted a 11 per cent rise in revenue and a 3 per cent higher EBITDA at Rs 16,777 crore in Q4. This was primarily because of "advantageous" sourcing of feedstock (crude oil) for refining business and use of ethane for making chemicals as well as higher domestic product placement, a company statement said, adding exports were down 8.5 per cent. With the consumer base swelling to 481.8 million from 470.9 million at the end of December on a flat per-user revenues of Rs 181.7, Reliance <keyword id="21397660" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jio-Infocomm-Ltd" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Jio Infocomm Ltd" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Jio Infocomm Ltd">Jio Infocomm Ltd</keyword> - the digital services business - posted a 12 per cent rise in net profit at Rs 5,583 crore in the fourth quarter of FY24. Also, aiding the business was rise in data traffic to 40.9 billion GB in January-March from 38.1 billion GB in the preceding quarter. For the full year, Jio posted a profit of Rs 21,424 crore as compared to Rs 19,124 crore in FY23. Profits from the retail business climbed 11.7 per cent to Rs 2,698 crore as store count rose to 18,836 from 18,774. Store footfalls dropped to 272 million from 282 million in October-December 2023 but were higher than 219 million recorded in January-March 2023. Oil and gas EBITDA soared 47.5 per cent to Rs 5,606 crore as higher gas volumes partly offset lower price realisation. The firm's flagship KG-D6 block in Krishna Godavari basin in the Bay of Bengal is now producing about 30 million standard cubic metres per day of gas and 23,000 barrels a day of oil/condensate. The company said its outstanding debt rose to Rs 3.24 lakh crore from Rs 3.11 lakh crore in December-end. After accounting for cash in hand, net debt at Rs 1.16 lakh crore as on March 31 was lower than Rs 1.25 lakh crore a year back. Mukesh Ambani, Chairman and Managing Director of <keyword id="20076630" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reliance-industries-limited" source="keywords">Reliance Industries Limited</keyword>, said all segments of business have posted a robust financial and operating performance. "This has helped the Company achieve multiple milestones. I am happy to share that this year, Reliance became the first Indian company to cross the Rs 1 lakh-crore threshold in pre-tax profits," he said. Performance of the digital services segment has been boosted by accelerated expansion of subscriber base, supported by both mobility and fixed wireless services, he said. "With over 108 million True 5G customers, Jio truly leads the 5G transformation in India." <keyword id="19901342" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reliance-retail" source="keywords">Reliance Retail</keyword>, he said, continued to provide customers endless choices through its robust omni-channel presence. "We continue to offer product differentiation and superior offline experience through stores re-modelling and revamping of layouts. Our digital commerce platforms also provide newer solutions to users with a broad brand catalogue," Ambani said. Strong demand for fuels globally, and limited flexibility in refining system worldwide supported margins and profitability of the O2C segment. "Downstream chemical industry experienced increasingly challenging market conditions through the year. Despite headwinds, maintaining leading product positions and feedstock flexibility through our operating model that prioritises cost management, we delivered a resilient performance," he said. "We remain committed to our projects and initiatives, including those in the new energy segment, which will bolster the company, and help it deliver sustainable growth for the future," he added. 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Reliance Industries quarterly profit stays flat; annual earnings hit record at ₹69,621 crore

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Good morning! Add this to the list of things that might scare you about artificial intelligence: losing your home. Real-estate scammers are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/scammers-use-ai-deed-fraud-title-theft-to-steal-homes-2024-10">using AI tools to commit deed theft</a>, with the owner of a $137.5 million mansion saying they're among the victims.In today's big story, Tesla reports earnings this afternoon with the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-q3-earnings-preview-wall-street-auto-margins-robotaxi-2024-10">focus back on its cars business</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Breaking down the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/starboard-jeff-smith-74-page-presentation-pfizer-13-monitor-2024-10">74-page slideshow</a> activist investor Starboard presented to Pfizer.</li><li>Tech: Amazon's $100 billion data center dream <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-data-centers-delays-costs-power-labor-shortages-aws-ai-2024-10">is turning into a bit of a nightmare</a>.</li><li>Business: A deadly E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-e-coli-outbreak-tied-quarter-pounders-2024-10">sent its share price tumbling</a>.</li></ul>But first, back to basics.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Tesla the car company</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of Elon Musk." height="882" width="1176" msid="114513508" hostid="261" sizebytes="107410"></div>Tesla has spent plenty of time discussing the future, but Wall Street wants to bring the EV giant back to the present.Elon Musk's company reports third-quarter earnings this afternoon, and analysts are focused on its core auto business. Business Insider's Matthew Fox has a rundown on <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-q3-earnings-preview-wall-street-auto-margins-robotaxi-2024-10">analysts' expectations ahead of Tesla's big day</a>.(To get real-time updates on Tesla's earnings, be sure to check out our <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-tsla-earnings-call-report-live-updates-2024-10">live blog here</a>.)Musk has spent time talking up everything but the cars his company currently sells. From robotaxis to autonomous vehicles and bartending bots, Tesla's earnings calls have been heavily focused on what's next instead of what's now.Tesla has good reason to avoid talking about the present. Its sales dropped for two straight quarters <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q3-deliveries-sales-stock-price-2024-10">before righting the ship in Q3</a>. It'll now take a massive fourth quarter for its 2024 sales to eclipse last year's figure.Touting robotaxis and pitching the company as a leader in artificial intelligence has eased the pain (and helped the stock price), but even that has its limit. Tesla's share price is still down more than 12% year-to-date after its flashy robotaxi event <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-cybercar-analysts-self-driving-fleet-ai-2024-10">mostly fell flat with investors</a>.That's why all eyes are back on its core business of selling cars, including the status of its industry-leading profit margins.The report could signal the worst is behind Tesla … or is yet to come.<div type="image" title="Generel Motors photo collage" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114513510" hostid="261" sizebytes="91326"></div>Tesla also needs to worry about what's in its rearview mirror.General Motors' third-quarter earnings report topped estimates, leading to a nearly 10% surge in its stock. Part of its success included <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gm-stock-earnings-crushing-it-suvs-trucks-evs-2024-10">improved EV growth and profitability,</a> writes BI's Benjamin Zhang. GM now holds a 9.8% share of the US market, trailing only Tesla.That comes during what's been an overall tough time for the EV market. (But a good time for any <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ev-pile-up-dealer-lots-deals-discounts-leasing-2024-8">who's in the market for one</a>!)While the industry continues to grow, it's at a much slower pace than a few years ago. Automakers have been forced to readjust their strategy around breaking into the market.Overseas, things aren't much better for Tesla. China, the world's largest auto market and an area of growth for Tesla, has gotten increasingly competitive. Domestic rivals <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-chinese-ev-rivals-record-deliveries-pressure-on-elon-musk-2024-10">recently posted a record month for sales</a>, and China's EV giants stole the show at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-ev-giants-innovation-ai-auto-show-european-rivals-despair-2024-10">Europe's largest auto show</a>.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Former Abercrombie &amp; Fitch CEO Mike Jeffries <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/former-abercrombie-and-fitch-ceo-mike-jefferies-arrested-2024-10">arrested in sex-trafficking case</a>.</li><li>Starbucks just pre-released its sales figures, and they show <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/starbucks-quarterly-sales-dropped-as-it-faces-us-china-headwinds-2024-10">its new CEO has an uphill struggle ahead</a>.</li><li>A Michelin star might <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/restaurants-awards-michelin-star-new-york-city-dining-rent-costs-2024-10">kill your favorite restaurant</a>.</li><li>The Polymarket 'whale' is placing as many as 71 bets a minute <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-trump-vs-harris-betting-odds-polls-election-2024-10">in favor of Donald Trump</a>.</li><li>Bhutan is known for prizing happiness. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bhutan-known-gross-happiness-employees-longest-working-hours-in-world-2024-10">Its people also work longer than any other country</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla" height="683" width="1024" msid="114513505" hostid="261" sizebytes="38178"></div><ol><li>Activist investor Starboard aired its grievances to Pfizer. The hedge fund, which reportedly has a $1 billion stake in the drug giant, recently presented <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/starboard-jeff-smith-74-page-presentation-pfizer-13-monitor-2024-10">a 74-page slideshow to Pfizer</a>. Its complaints included a lack of R&amp;D spend and a failure to deliver on its drug pipeline.</li><li>The bond market is scrambling to recalibrate itself. Bond yields are rising and prices are dropping as <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/treasury-yields-bonds-interest-rates-economy-inflation-election-labor-market-2024-10">traders reset their expectations of future interest rate cuts</a>. Strong economic data and a potential Trump win are believed to be the biggest factors preventing more rate cuts.</li><li>Inside Citadel Securities' massive tech rebuild. Ken Griffin's market maker is revamping the tech that powers its trades as it eyes growth. The goal is to prepare the firm for what lies ahead, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-citadel-securities-multi-year-rebuild-trading-technology-2024-10">Citadel Securities' chief technology officer told BI</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Illustration of an Amazon data center wrapped in an orange-colored electrical cord, with three lightning bolt symbols" height="1000" width="2000" msid="114513501" hostid="261" sizebytes="86046"></div><ol><li>Amazon's data center dream is battling "zombie" facilities, high costs, and labor shortages. Amazon plans to spend more than $100 billion expanding its data centers over the next decade. But the ambitious plan means it's increasingly running into physical constraints. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-data-centers-delays-costs-power-labor-shortages-aws-ai-2024-10">According to internal documents viewed by BI,</a> electricity and labor headwinds are hampering the company's long-term data center growth.</li><li>The plane-tracker who got on Elon Musk's bad side says he's lost faith in big social media. College student Jack Sweeney ran Threads accounts that tracked the movements of celebrities' private jets — or at least he did until Monday, when Meta removed the accounts citing safety concerns. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jet-tracking-meta-ban-jack-sweeney-faith-social-media-2024-10">Sweeney told BI</a> he thinks he was targeted by one of the public figures he's tracking.</li><li>Disney and Apple are on the outs. Disney is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-apple-app-store-hulu-disney-plus-2024-10">no longer letting new customers sign up for Hulu or Disney+ via Apple's App Store</a>, which takes up to 15% of the monthly fees generated by Disney's subscription services. Though the companies are still working together on some projects, the move points to a notable rift in the pair's long-standing relationship.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Illustration of block homes." height="2000" width="4000" msid="114513507" hostid="261" sizebytes="419628"></div><ol><li>Should America be more like Whoville? To bring down housing prices, America needs to break from its cookie-cutter tradition and build more weird homes. These five wacky home ideas could help <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/home-prices-america-should-build-weird-houses-apartments-real-estate-2024-10">create the housing we need</a>.</li><li>The CDC said a deadly E. coli outbreak was linked to McDonald's Quarter Pounders. Shares in the Golden Arches dropped more than 9% in extended trading on Tuesday following the announcement that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-e-coli-outbreak-tied-quarter-pounders-2024-10">one person died and 10 others were hospitalized</a>. A total of 49 cases across 10 states have been reported thus far, but the extent of the outbreak is "likely much higher," the CDC said.</li><li>Does anyone know what Disney's post-Bob Iger plan is? The company's announcement that it would name a new CEO in 2026 — far later than most expected — has left <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-bob-iger-ceo-succession-plan-questions-2024-10">more questions than answers</a>. The stakes are high: Disney flubbed Iger's last exit plan so badly that it had to bring him back after less than two years.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>Billionaire Marc Lasry claims in a new lawsuit that a former employee is trying to extort him for $50 million. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/marc-lasry-sues-former-employee-demanding-50-million-2024-10">Here are the most eye-catching excerpts</a>.</li><li>Diddy's children break their silence on his arrest and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/diddy-children-arrest-accusations-response-2024-10">compare the accusations to 'conspiracy theories.'</a></li><li>Elon Musk's X has made hundreds of thousands of dollars <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-x-america-super-pac-advertising-revenue-2024-10">from his super PAC</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Tesla, Boeing, IBM, Coca-Cola, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>Harvey Weinstein appears in New York court on additional charges of sexual assault.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

Tesla's earnings report will include refocusing on its car business, and it comes as competition heats up

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Amazon is set to report its earnings for the first quarter after the closing bell on Tuesday.</li><li>Investors have their eye on the company's AI initiatives and profit metrics.</li></ul>Amazon will report earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell and Wall Street has its eye on a few key details heading into the call. The company has seen a strong performance so far in 2024, with shares up 20%. Investors are generally feeling bullish on mega-cap tech stocks, with Amazon among the companies at the forefront of the artificial intelligence arms race. The company is developing custom generative AI chips, which could be a huge catalyst for its stock in the coming years, Needham strategists said in a recent note."This is a unique strategic position, and since digital markets have 'winner take most' economics, we are optimistic that AMZN will be one of the 2-3 winners from GenAI," the note said.Investors are also watching for strength in key areas of the company, including Amazon Web Services and advertising revenue. Those areas could be challenged as consumer spending slows. Here's what Wall Street expects to see from Amazon's upcoming earnings report:<h3>Bank of America: Top stock drivers in play</h3>BofA expects healthy growth from the online retailer over the last quarter. The bank pointed to Amazon CEO Andy Jassy's letter to shareholders, which suggested positive progress in retail margins, AWS, and ad revenue — all "top stock drivers" for the company, analysts said in a note. "We expect a 1Q beat, and while 2Q set up has some unusual q/q hurdles, we expect positive 1Q metrics and call commentary to be constructive &amp; consistent with the recent Shareholder Letter ... Given expanding retail margins (robust ad growth with a likely 1Q Prime boost), and expected AWS acceleration, we think the stock is still set up for multiple expansion in 2024," analysts wrote last week.BofA analysts reiterated their "Buy" rating and $204 price target for the stock, implying a 13% upside from its current levels.<h3>Wells Fargo: Healthy trends for the first quarter</h3>Amazon looks to be on a good trajectory, especially when considering that change to its fee structure for its Fulfillment by Amazon program could drive up to $1.2 billion in incremental operating income compared to the previous quarter, Wells Fargo analysts estimated.Retail sales are expected to contribute $725 million in incremental operating income for the quarter, while Amazon Web Services is expected to contribute $350 million."Believe revenue recognized from enterprise cloud migrations still relatively tepid in 1Q but commitments in place for 2H acceleration. View '24 to be a year of cyclical recovery, while Enterprise AI likely more of a focus in '25/'26," the bank said in a note. Analysts raised their price target for Amazon stock to $217, implying a 20% upside.<h3>Goldman Sachs: Top eCommerce pick into first quarter</h3>Goldman Sachs said it was "cautious" on eCommerce stocks, due to an array of headwinds building in the sector. But Amazon is its "top pick" for the first quarter, thanks to resilient retail demand and expected growth in AWS and ad revenue, analysts said in a note."Our industry work and the third-party data sources we surveyed point to online consumer spending remaining resilient in Q1'24. But we see a wide dispersion of results between companies," the analysts wrote. The firm maintained its "Buy" rating and $220 price target, implying a 22% upside from the stock's current levels.<h3>Needham: Top 2-3 "winners" of the AI race</h3>Amazon is expected to outperform across multiple profit metrics, Needham analysts predicted, adding that Amazon will be among the top winners of the AI race that's captivated Wall Street. "We believe that cost cutting, as well as Cloud and Advertising rev growth ... will result in overdelivery of FCF and ROICs, which should lead to a valuation multiple expansion," analysts added. However, the bank noted that Amazon's business still faces risks, including weak consumer demand and rising competition. The firm maintained its "buy" rating and $205 price target for Amazon stock, implying a 14% upside from current levels.

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