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Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], August 8 (ANI): <keyword id="64190" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI-Governor" source="Orion">RBI Governor</keyword> <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> says <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and <keyword id="489239" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-food-prices" source="Orion">global food prices</keyword> have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent." The inflation landscape reflects mixed signals, to which Das said, "<keyword id="21258540" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="headline-inflation" source="keywords">Headline inflation</keyword> eased up to 5.1 per cent in June 2024 due to higher than expected food inflation. Fuel remained in deflation for the 10th consecutive month. Core inflation moderated to a historic low in the months of May and June." RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, outlined the <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> with real <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> of 7.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2024-25 and headline inflation eased to 5.1 per cent in June, on Thursday. Das said, "Real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.1 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. Real GDP growth for Q1 2025-26, this is something which we are giving for the first time, is projected at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." He added, "We have slightly moderated the <keyword id="387719" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="growth-projection" source="Orion">growth projection</keyword> for the first quarter of the current financial year in relation to the projection we gave in the previous MPC in June. This is primarily due to updated information on certain high-frequency indicators which show lower than anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure and core industries output." This forecast marks a slight moderation from previous estimates provided in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in June, attributed to recent updates on high-frequency indicators such as corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output. The inflation landscape reflects mixed signals, to which Das said, "Headline inflation eased up to 5.1 per cent in June 2024 due to higher than expected food inflation. Fuel remained in deflation for the 10th consecutive month. Core inflation moderated to a historic low in the months of May and June." Balancing robust growth projections with a nuanced understanding of inflation dynamics Governor Das stated, "Food inflation which has a weight of around 46 per cent in the CPI basket, contributed to more than 75 per cent of headline inflation in May and June. Vegetable prices increased sharply and contributed about 35 per cent to inflation in June. High inflation pressures persisted across other major food items also." Governor Das mentioned softening in core inflation continues to be broad-based with core services inflation touching a new low in the current CPI series during the month of May and June 2024. Das stated, "The high food price momentum likely to have continued in the month of July also. Large favourable base effects may however push headline inflation downwards in July. The Impact of the revision in milk prices mobile tariffs also needs to be carefully monitored." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in south west monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta das. Das anticipates some relief in food inflation due to the expected pickup in the southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals remain above the normative levels, contributing to a more stable food price environment. Global food prices, which have been on an upward trajectory since March 2024, showed signs of easing in July.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das projects 7.2% GDP growth for 2024-25, reports eased inflation to 5.1% in June

The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> announced the decision of the newly formed six-member MPC (<keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword>) today, following the conclusion of the three-day meeting, which began on October 7, 2024. Treading along expected lines, RBI rate-setting panel left the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the 10th consecutive time, in its 51st meeting today. The decision was made by a majority, with 5 out of 6 members voting for leaving the rate unchanged. This is the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy review for FY25, and the first since three external members were appointed to the panel earlier this month. The tenure of the previous three members had come to an end on October 4, 2024. While the outgoing members include Ashima Goyal (emeritus professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research), Shashanka Bhide (honorary senior advisor, National Council of Applied Economic Research); and Jayanth R. Varma(professor, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad), the income members are Ram Singh (Director, Delhi School of Economics), Saugata Bhattacharya, an economist; and Nagesh Kumar (Director and chief executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development). <h2>Wait and Watch </h2>RBI also changed its policy stance to neutral, while remaining committed to growth and bringing down inflation to its target of 4%. This means that at present, the bank is not inclined to either increase or decrease the interest rates, but will take a call depending on macroeconomic conditions and prevailing factors. "Taking all these factors into consideration, the real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2%, with Q2 at 7%, Q3 at 7.4% and Q4 at 7.4%", he said. As for inflation, Das highlighted that headline inflation had softened significantly in July and August and even food inflation experienced a certain degree of correction during these two months. Keeping this in mind, CPI inflation for 2024-25 i.e. current year is projected at 4.5%, with Q2 at 4.1%, Q3 at 4.8% and Q4 at 4.2%. CPI for first quarter of next financial year i.e. 2025-26 is estimated at 4.3%. "It's with a lot of effort that inflation horse has been brought to the stable, i.e. closer to the target and within the tolerance span, compared to its place or heightened levels two years ago. We have to be very careful about opening the gate, as the horse may simply hold again. We must keep the horse in tight leash, so that we do not lose control", Das added. Most economists had anticipated a change in the central bank's current policy stance of 'withdrawal of accommodation'. This policy stand indicates that any interest rate cuts are presently off the table. However, given the ongoing geopolitical crisis and Fed's jumbo rate cut by 50-basis points last month, RBI may bring about a cut in interest rates, sooner than later. However, since food inflation remains high at 5.42% as of July 2024, experts had also estimated that now might not have been a good time for RBI to bring down interest rates. Moreover, PMI (purchase managers index) indices, which help in gauging the health of manufacturing and service sectors in the country, presently stand at a multi-month low, and even the core sector output is witnessing a contraction after 42 straight months. As Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research had highlighted, the current circumstances are not really conducive for RBI to opt for any affirmation action towards an easier monetary policy. "While the fear of the inflation “elephant” may have subsided with the CPI headline print well within 4.0% over the last two months and a favorable monsoon, the concerns around the stability of food inflation still linger among policy makers. The RBI may wait till December 2024 or February 2025 to make a rat cut, he continued. <h2>Housing sector rejoices</h2>From the point of view of homebuyers, the relatively affordable home loan interest rate regime will continue at a critical time for the Indian housing market - the festive season - amid rising housing prices and tapered sales. Q3 2024 saw average housing prices rise by a cumulative 23% in the top 7 cities even as average prices in these markets collectively rose to approximately Rs 8,390 per sq. ft. by Q3 2024-end, from Rs 6,800 per sq. ft. in Q3 2023. "The unchanged home loan rates are much-needed demand support in the ongoing festive quarter. We are expecting faster sales momentum in Q4 2024 when compared to the preceding quarter. This year's festive quarter may see similar demand to that seen in this period a year ago, if not higher. Over 1.27 lakh units were sold across the top 7 cities back in Q4 2023. Unchanged interest rates will play and important role in achieving and maintaining this momentum", says Anuj Puri, Chairman - ANAROCK Group

RBIs MPC meet concludes today: Repo rate left unchanged at 6.5%

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors need to be wary as sticky inflation remains a risk, Deutsche Bank says.</li><li>The firm detailed five reasons why consumer prices could stay persistently elevated.</li></ul>It's tempting to think the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is over, given the central bank's recent rate cuts and sharpened <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-explained-inflation-labor-market-conditions-outlook-recession-2024-9">focus on the labor market</a>. But it's not yet time for investors to relax, Deutsche Bank wrote on Monday.Though inflation now hovers close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate, it's not yet time to declare victory: prices continue to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">run hotter than expected</a>, and that's happening alongside monetary easing."If inflation does return, this could have very important implications for markets," Deutsche Bank strategists said. "We saw in 2022 how there was a massive selloff across both bonds and equities."The firm detailed five reasons why inflation risks must still be monitored:First, initial interest-rate cuts have been more broader and deeper than expected on a global basis. In the US, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points, citing lower headline inflation to justify its aggressive policy flip.While that much is true, history shows that easing cycles are precisely the time to be cautious over inflation, Deutsche said."If inflation does prove sticky above target today, then that could force central banks to keep monetary policy in restrictive territory for longer," the note said.Second, stimulus momentum in China and worsening geopolitics in the Middle East have triggered a notable pickup in commodity prices.Oil prices have jumped this month as investors adjust to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. After an Iranian missile attack on Israel triggered promises of retaliation, the market has braced for a possible disruption to the region's crude output.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> crude gained sharply in early October, peaking at $80 per barrel. Deutsche noted this as a considerable high, noting that the international benchmark traded below $70 a barrel just one month prior.If Israel's response decimated Iran's oil installations, analysts expect prices to hit as much as $200 per barrel.Meanwhile, industrial metals such as <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/copper-price">copper</a> have also taken flight, after China announced a series of stimulus measures to reenergize its fleeting economy. The metal is a key component in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-copper-iron-ore-stay-stimulus-believers-others-sceptical-russell-2024-10-14/">construction and manufacturing</a>, and can stand to benefit if the world's second-largest economy recovers.Third, odds of a US recession are ebbing as the economy shows signs of resilience that could keep inflation elevated."Much as the stronger news on growth is welcome, it also means that economic demand and inflation is likely to be stronger than it would otherwise have been," analysts wrote.Fourth, September's consumer price index report surprised investors last week.Not only was the inflation reading higher than estimated, core CPI ran at its fastest pace in six months, gaining 0.31%. Core CPI's three-month annualized rate moved up to 3.1%, compared to August's 2.1% print."Although that's only one report, it served as a reminder of how inflation could prove more persistent, and it were the stickier categories in the basket that were holding inflation up," Deutsche wrote. For instance, the Atlanta Fed's "sticky CPI" measure stood at its strongest in five months.Fifth, money supply growth is still accelerating.According to the bank, an increase in this measure can be read as an advance warning that inflation could stay persistently high. This was the case in the post-pandemic period, Deutsche said — though it is admittedly moving up from a low base.The firm cited the fact that in August, US M2 money supply rose 2.0% year-over-year, the highest growth rate since September 2022.

5 reasons why inflation will be stickier than expected going forward, Deutsche Bank says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks rose after cool inflation data suggested more room for Federal Reserve rate cuts.</li><li>The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.1% in August, matching estimates.</li></ul>US stocks rose on Friday after cool inflation data suggested that the Federal Reserve has more room to cut interest rates.The personal consumption expenditures price index, which is considered the Fed's preferred inflation measure, increased 0.1% in August, in-line with economist estimates.On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Index rose 2.2%, slightly below economist estimates of 2.3%.According to Bellwether Wealth chief investment officer Clark Bellin, the data shows that the Fed was right in starting its interest rate cuts with a 50 basis point move last week."The Fed feels as though it has won the battle on inflation and its primary focus is making sure the job market stays steady," Bellin said in an email to Business Insider.According to Carson Group macro strategist Sonu Varghese, investors can thank productivity for the slowdown in inflation."An underrated story over the past year and half is that investment spending by firms has increased productivity, and that's allowed for strong income gains and output even as inflation eases," Varghese said via email.Looking ahead to next week, investors will be laser-focused on the September jobs report, set to be released on Friday.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,750.44, up 0.1%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,357.85, up 0.4% (183 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,192.78, up 0.1%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">Russia's economy is showing signs of stagflation as it reels from the impact of its war against Ukraine.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/david-tepper-buys-chinese-stocks-country-launches-fiscal-stimulus-bazooka-2024-9">Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper said he's loading up on Chinese stocks amid stimulus measures.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/majority-millionaires-plan-vote-for-harris-over-trump-november-election-2024-9">A majority of millionaires plan to vote for Harris over Trump, according to a new survey.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil was down slightly by 0.04% to $67.64 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.18% to $71.47 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was down 0.11% to $2,691.90 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was lower by 3 basis points at 3.772%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was up 0.74% to $65,667.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US indexes gain after soft inflation report supports more rate cuts

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil and gas prices will likely fall under Trump's proposed tariffs, a Bank of America strategist said.</li><li>He said tariffs will lead to a trade war, dampening demand and prices in the process.</li></ul>Oil and gas prices are set to fall amid an onslaught of steep tariffs under Donald Trump, according to Bank of America strategist Francisco Blanch.Blanch says the president-elect's proposed tariffs will likely curb global trade, driving down oil and gas prices in the process."America first means commodities second, and I think we kind of start from that point," he said in a Monday interview with Bloomberg Television.Trump has floated proposals of sweeping <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">tariffs</a> of 10% to 20% on all countries, with the exception of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stimulus-trump-us-election-tariffs-chinese-economy-trade-war-2024-10">China</a>, where the US would impose steeper duties of 60%. As those tariffs heighten trade tensions, that could slow economic growth and lead to higher inflation and interest rates, dampening demand and prices, Blanch's comments suggest.That could have an impact on production, too, Blanch says.In theory, Trump's deregulatory stances and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-trump-climate-policies-ev-subsidies-renewables-fossil-fuel-drilling-2024-7?utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=business-sf&amp;utm_source=facebook&amp;fbclid=IwY2xjawGoeZpleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfLoB8Cl3sA7ngI6j0XqTGKOlLQQq9ktKNJV9_yySewhWgslJ6LnmWQFXg_aem_oIAve7xxBu3McHKWflkroA">pro-fossil fuel</a> views should boost production. Throughout his campaign, Trump promised to lower energy prices by boosting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-lower-gas-prices-exxonmobil-ceo-oil-boom-2024-11">US oil production</a>, saying, "We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill," at a rally in Detroit last month."I will cut your energy prices in half within 12 months," he added.But if prices are lower amid sweeping tariffs, that could mean production slows, too, as producers see less incentive to accelerate drilling, Blanch says."In America, prices determine how much output producers ultimately pull out of the ground, and I think the bigger risk to prices really is coming from tariffs. We have potentially a trade war here," he said, adding that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-recession-fears-jump-trump-trade-war-tariffs-2024-11">trade war</a> is the main downside risk to demand globally.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11?_gl=1*4rar5l*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTk1ODgyNS40MjAuMS4xNzMxOTU5NDEwLjIxLjAuMA..">US oil production</a> is also already historically high, reaching 13.4 million barrels a day in August to hit a new all-time monthly high.There are also some upside risks to commodity prices, Blanch acknowledges.He points to geopolitical tensions, including those in the Middle East and Ukraine. During his first term, Trump employed strict sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and with Marco Rubio appointed as Secretary of State, that could bring such policies back, Blanch says."He's an anti-Iran, anti-Venezuela hawk. I think that could have an impact," he said, implying that stricter sanctions on those countries could drive up prices."Whatever happens to those geopolitical events that we're going through right now I think will also determine the path," he added.

'America first means commodities second': Oil and gas prices will tank under a Trump presidency, BofA strategist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Gold could soar as high as $3,500 an ounce by the end of next year, market vet Ed Yardeni predicted.</li><li>That implies a nearly 50% upside for gold, if inflation surges to a second peak, Yardeni said.</li></ul>Gold prices could soar through the end of 2025 if inflation stages a comeback, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. The Yardeni Research president predicted that gold prices could rise as high as $3,500 by the end of next year, implying as much as a 49% upside for the precious metal from Monday's price around $2,347. That's because inflation could follow the path it did in the 1970s, when prices began to spiral and gold went from $35 an ounce to a peak of $665 an ounce. "The price of gold is soaring in new high territory," Yardeni said in a note to clients on Sunday, referring to gold prices notching an <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-all-time-record-safe-haven-rate-hike-geopolitics-2024-3">all-time record in March</a>. "Another wage-price spiral attributable to rising oil prices would be very reminiscent of the Great Inflation of the 1970s, when the price of gold soared. In this scenario, $3,000-$3,500 per ounce would be a realistic target for gold through 2025."Consumer prices have cooled dramatically from their highs above 9% in 2022, with inflation rising 3.2% in February, but market commentators have warned of a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-outlook-inflation-rollercoaster-job-market-wages-prices-blackrock-2024-2">potential resurgence of inflation</a> thanks to supply-chain disruptions stemming from geopolitical conflicts and the strong US labor market. Inflationary pressures are also being exacerbated by the recent <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-forecast-increase-brent-wti-crude-summer-bofa-2024-4">run-up in crude prices,</a> with Brent crude rising past $90 a barrel last week as OPEC+ producers announced they would continue their output cuts.If <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/israel-hamas-outlook-oil-prices-economy-stock-market-volatility-inflation-2023-10">conflict in the Middle East escalates</a>, oil prices could rise over $100 a barrel, Yardeni predicted. He estimated there was a 20% chance inflation could rise to a second peak, which would result in the bullish run-up for gold. Yardeni isn't the only forecaster who sees more upside for gold in the years ahead. Top economist David Rosenberg said he saw <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-forecast-outlook-spot-fed-interest-rate-cut-rosenberg-2024-4?mrfhud=true">30% upside for gold prices</a>, thanks to the risk stemming from the Fed's expected rate cuts and rising geopolitical conflict.

Gold prices have another 50% upside through 2025 if inflation jumps again, market vet says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hurricane Helene, the dockworkers' strike, and Middle East conflict threaten to upend the US economy.</li><li>Oil prices are up as conflict widens between Israel and Iran.</li></ul>A sudden flurry of global developments has the US economy staring down a troubling trifecta of major crises.Devastation from Hurricane Helene, a dockworkers' strike, and escalating conflict in the Middle East all threaten to scramble supply chains and inflate prices. The confluence of events comes just as the US economy is recovering from a years-long bout of elevated inflation. Coupled with a cooling but still-strong labor market, it looked possible the US would avoid a recession. These events could threaten that.While the effects of Iran's<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10"> missile</a> attack on Israel on Tuesday are more speculative, the other two crises happening on American soil could have more predictable impacts. Experts point to direct impacts on the prices of goods like oil, food, and industrial equipment as well as infrastructure damage that would create knock-on effects across industries.For now, it's a waiting game. Many of the effects depend on how long the strike and cleanup last and how quickly the parties responsible for resolving them can act.<h2 id="bb66dc7c-8a7f-46f6-83fe-f763c7971b08">1. Escalation in the Middle East</h2>On Tuesday, the risk of a full-blown war between Iran and Israel escalated when Iran <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">launched a massive ballistic missile</a> attack on its adversary.It came less than a day after Israel ramped up its attacks on Hezbollah with an invasion of southern Lebanon. The heightening conflict also threatens to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warns-severe-consequences-for-iran-after-attack-on-israel-2024-10">further entangle the US</a>, which announced it's sending additional fighter jets and thousands of troops to the Middle East to defend Israel and reinforce US troops already in the region.Since Iran's offensive, the price of oil has surged up, raising concerns that a broader conflict could push oil and gas prices higher. When petroleum prices rise, that also impacts the cost of plastics, which could raise prices on a range of goods. Some experts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/02/israel-iranian-oil-refineries-retaliatory-strikes">warn that Israel could target Iranian oil production facilities</a> in potential retaliatory attacks, which could risk further oil price increases."History would say that when there is conflict in the region, the prices of petroleum remain elevated and could continue to rise," Douglas Kent, an executive vice president at the Association for Supply Chain Management, told Business Insider.<h2 id="74292a69-7822-4de1-bb2c-cdde4749d751">2. Dockworkers on strike</h2>Also on Tuesday, dockworkers at all the eastern US ports from Maine to Texas went on strike, threatening <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworkers-port-strike-ila-impacts-2024-10">a slew of adverse economic impacts</a>, including increased prices on key goods ahead of the holiday shopping season.About 30% of goods imported to and exported from the US pass through the East Coast and Gulf ports, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis, along with about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-markets-react-israel-iran-escalates-dockworkers-strike-helene-2024-10">half of all US ocean imports</a>. The strike could cause shortages of goods and push consumer prices up, but how much depends entirely on how long the work stoppage lasts, experts say.A few days of snarled supply chains likely wouldn't be a major hit to the economy, while a week or longer could have major impacts. Every day, the work stoppage is costing the economy up to $4.5 billion, according to JPMorgan analysts. If the strike goes for at least two weeks, it may <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-port-strike-biggest-stock-market-winners-losers-investing-analysis-2024-10?_gl=1*w94t9f*_ga*MTM5OTQyNzAxOS4xNjc1MDExMTIw*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzg4MTM4OC4zNTQuMS4xNzI3ODgzOTYyLjQ5LjAuMA..">increase inflation.</a> If it lasts a month, it could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/port-strike-impact-costs-us-economy-recession-outlook-shipping-delay-2024-10">cause a recession</a>.And the strike will also have knock-on impacts. For every day the ports are closed, it will take an estimated five days for supply chains to get back to normal, Kent said."We are in a bit of a wait-and-see mode about what the impacts are going to be," Sameera Fazili, former deputy director of the National Economic Council under Biden, told BI. "If the strike goes on for one day or three days, it could take two weeks for some companies to recover, some industries to recover, it could take months for others to fully recover."Some of the imported consumer goods <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-products-most-likely-to-be-impacted-by-port-strike-2024-9">most vulnerable to the port closures</a> include perishable foods like fresh fruits and vegetables, wine, beer, liquor, toys, tires, furniture, and raw commodities like salt, sugar, and gypsum. Kent noted that automotive, pharmaceutical, and industrial equipment supply chains are also vulnerable. US meat, dairy, and poultry exports <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-port-strike-hurt-agriculture-livestorck-dairy-farmers-presidential-election-2024-10">could also be disrupted</a>, as well as coal and heavy agricultural equipment.How much the strike impacts prices depends on how much of a cushion companies have built to deal with any bottlenecks. With the memory of pandemic supply chain crises still fresh, many businesses have become better prepared for disruptions by importing goods ahead of schedule in anticipation of the strike or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polb.com/port-info/news-and-press/port-of-long-beach-achieves-busiest-month-on-record-09-12-2024/">diverting shipments</a> to West Coast ports."The 2020 disruption presented unforeseen challenges but encouraged many firms to diversify their supply chain and seek backup sourcing: preparation that will likely soften the blow of the dockworker strike," Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist at ITR Economics, said in a statement.But mitigation efforts, including redirecting shipments, cost money and push prices up. Bottlenecks also encourage carriers to raise their prices, increasing retail and consumer goods prices, Kent said.Fazili said she's confident the dockworkers' union — the International Longshoremen's Association — and the organization representing their employers — the United States Maritime Alliance — can come to a deal to raise wages and improve benefits for workers. With the election looming, Biden administration officials are particularly incentivized to grease the wheels of their negotiations.<h2 id="b5a7373b-dcda-4543-bf11-a8ea2a739cbd">3. Natural disaster strikes the South</h2>All of this comes as Southern states are scrambling to handle the fallout from a superstorm with billions of dollars in damage. Dozens of people have been killed in the flooding, landslides, and high winds wrought by Hurricane Helene, which washed out an untold number of roads, destroyed homes, and devastated entire towns. Rescue and recovery efforts are still underway, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wcnc.com/article/weather/hurricane/helene/north-carolina-hurricane-helene-missing-people-finder-victims-survivors/275-d811bbc2-754d-4637-b156-7e4af6e1eadb">hundreds of people still missing</a>, particularly in North Carolina.The storm will likely have far-reaching economic impacts, including the immediate costs of providing emergency services for thousands of residents left homeless or without power or water, and the longer-term costs of rebuilding roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. Helene has likely caused between $15 billion and $26 billion in damage to property on top of about $5 billion to $8 billion in lost economic output, according to Moody's Analytics.In the immediate wake of the storm, a slew of residents across the affected states have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/price-gouging-complaints-surge-hurricane-helene-states-fuel-water-hotels-2024-10">reported price gouging</a> by hotels, gas stations, and grocery stores. The hurricane has also disrupted some supply chains, including <a target="_blank" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/10/01/hurricane-helene-iv-fluid-shortage-health-supply-chain">healthcare supplies</a> and high-purity quartz needed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quartz-mine-computer-chips-hurricane-helene-spruce-pine-semiconductor-2024-9">for semiconductor manufacturing</a>."The combination of these events just reemphasizes how important it is for the private sector and companies, which are the ones that control supply chains, to move away from just-in-time and from efficiency only and to recognize that disruptions are on the rise and they ought to be better prepared for that," Fazili said.But the superstorm also threatens much longer-term economic damage, hitting the property insurance industry and the federal flood insurance program. Homeowners in affected areas will likely deal with rising property insurance costs or even lose coverage altogether, experts say."In the short run, the most costly element of the disaster is the damage to homes, property and infrastructure," Adam Kamins, a senior director at Moody's Analytics, told BI. "Longer term, the disaster itself is unlikely to drive people out of the hardest-hit areas, but insurance premiums could rise, denting affordability. This would be especially difficult for Florida, where many private insurers have already left the state."

A trifecta of global crises could snarl supply chains and increase prices

<ul><li><keyword id="67286" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="Orion">Food inflation</keyword> lowered to 9.94% in August as compared to 11.51% in July.</li><li>Softer <keyword id="6408856" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vegetable-prices" source="Orion">vegetable prices</keyword>, slide in prices of meat and egg products and fish aided the food inflation print.</li><li>Prices of cereals, milk, fruits and spices rose significantly in August as compared to July.</li><li>India’s factory output or IIP increased by 5.7% in July, according to the official data. </li></ul><keyword id="513422" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="Orion">Retail inflation</keyword> declined to 6.83% in August compared to 7.44% July, mostly due to easing vegetable prices. This year’s August print also came in lower than 7% seen in the same month last year. Core inflation stood at 4.9% for the month, eased marginally from the month before, and it’s the third consecutive month of a dip in inflation of this metric. Food inflation lowered to 9.94% in August as compared to 11.51% in July. Apart from softer vegetable prices, slide in prices of meat and egg products and fish also aided lower food inflation print. 'A modicum of relief' Economists call this easing a ‘modicum of relief’. “The consumer price inflation (CPI) inflation eased below the 7% mark in August 2023 to a lower-than-expected 6.8%, largely led by vegetables, amidst some moderation in the prints for clothing and footwear, housing and miscellaneous items as well,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at rating agency ICRA. The prices of cereals, milk and fruits as well as clothing and footwear and spices rose significantly in August as compared to July. Cereals and pulses inflation are seeing an uptick and this trend could be more sticky, says Suvodeep Rakshit, senior economist at Kotak Institutional Equities. The numbers are in line with the expectations of most economists, they also flagged off concerns of other factors that might keep inflation higher in the coming months. “The recent measure to lower LPG prices will have a 0.2-0.25% impact on inflation in September. While inflation for September will move towards the 6% mark and probably go lower, this will not be very comforting yet for monetary policy,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. Even if the CPI inflation print is in the range of 5.3-5.5% in September 2023, it will average to a 6.6% for the second quarter of FY24 – that’s well above RBI’s forecast in August. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected the CPI inflation at 5.4% for 2023-24. “We expect the MPC to remain on hold in October 2023, while continuing to demonstrate caution amid a cloudy outlook for food inflation and elevated crude oil prices,” said Nayar. IIP hits a 5-month high India's industrial production (IIP) increased by 5.7% in July to hit a five month high, as per data released on Tuesday. Factory output measured in terms of IIP grew by 2.2% in July 2022. The data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed that the manufacturing sector's output increased by 4.6% in July 2023. Mining output rose 10.7% during the month under review. Power output grew 8%. The IIP grew by 4.8% in April-July 2023 compared to 10% in the same period of 2022. The industrial growth number is however comforting for RBI in terms of giving reassurance on the growth front even as nine of the manufacturing industries have witnessed negative growth,” said Sabnavis. He opines that the months of September, October and November will hold clues to the sustenance of growth in industry and will be dependent on consumer goods reviving. (With PTI and IANS inputs)

Retail inflation declines to 6.83% in August on falling food prices; July IIP at 5.7%

<keyword id="19951168" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-governor-Shaktikanta-Das" source="keywords">RBI governor Shaktikanta Das</keyword> announced no change in prevailing interest rates and maintained the withdrawal of accommodation stance in the ongoing <keyword id="20456086" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Review" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Review</keyword> (MPC) meeting, which was held between August 6th and August 8th, 2024. This was the 50th MPC meeting since its inception. <h2>What is MPC meet? </h2>The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) held its third <keyword id="22709762" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bi-monthly-MPC-meet" source="keywords">bi-monthly MPC meet</keyword>, which began on August 6th, 2024 and concluded today. Experts were widely of the view that there would be no significant changes in the <keyword id="22709761" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="benchmark-repo-rate" source="keywords">benchmark repo rate</keyword> during this MPC meet, and that the MPC would keep it unchanged at 6.5%. This is the ninth time the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> has been left unchanged, since it was last increased from 6.25% to 6.5% on 8th February 2023. MPC includes 6 members, three from RBI, and three external experts. Together, they are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate, or repo rate. This is the rate at which the central bank of the country i.e. RBI lends to other banks of the country. If it is increased, the same translates into higher borrowing costs for consumers as well. <h2>What was the decision? </h2>MPC decided, by a majority of 4:2 members, that the repo rate will be left unchanged at 6.5%. This was done to align both market expectations and monetary policies. The MPC has decided to focus on maintaining price stability to ensure growth, and that inflation progressively aligns with the target. Notably, the RBIs inflation target is around 4%, with a tolerance band of about 2%. This target was last met in January 2021, when inflation stood at 4.06%. Per the governor, "PMI services stood strong at 60.3 in July, and have been above 60 for seven constitutive months, indicating robust expansion of services. On the demand side, household consumption is supporting a turnaround in rural demand and steady discretionary spending in urban areas is also being observed". As Das noted, sustained buoyancy in services activity is expected to support urban consumption. Moreover, government's thrust on capex, and signs of pickup in private investment would drive investment activity in the current year. Taking all these factors into consideration, the real GDP growth for 2024-25 has been projected at 7.2% . This is distributed as 7% in Q1, 7.1% in Q2, 7.2% in Q3 and 7.3% in Q4. Explaining the moderation of growth projections for the first quarter of the current FY, as compared to information given during previous MPC in June, Das explained that this was primarily due to updated information on certain high frequency indicators which show lower than anticipated results. These include corporate profitability, central government expenditure and core industries output, among others. As for CPI inflation for current FY, it has been pegged at 4.5%. Accordingly, Q2 projections stand at 4.4%, Q3 at 4.7% and Q4 at 4.3%. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year i.e. Q1FY26 is projected at 4.4%. <h2>Is high food inflation a key concern? </h2>In June 2024, food inflation surged, pushing overall CPI (consumer price index) inflation to 5.1% during the month, from 4.8% in May. It may be noted that food inflation forms a significant part of CPI. That is why, even with a supportive base effect from the previous year, food inflation jumped to 9.4%, driven mostly by high vegetable prices, which have remained in double digits for eight months. "The inflation trajectory has been moderating, and we do expect it to moderate, but the pace of modulation has been uneven and slow. So, we need to be watchful to ensure that we move closer to target, and CPI inflation gets aligned to the target on a durable basis", continued Das. <h2>Some segments of personal loans are excessively leveraged, notes Das </h2> Going ahead, there will be a public repository of digital lending apps deployed by the regulator. This comes amidst a spike in number of unauthorised lending apps, and certain segments of personal loans witnessing excess leverage through retail loans, most of which are for consumption purposes, the governor noted. Additionally, the current UPI transaction limit for tax payments is being enhanced from Rs 1,00,000 to Rs 5,00,000 per transaction. Also, the clearance cycle is also being shortened and made almost continuous, with cheques being cleared on the same day, within just a few hours of being presented, benefiting all stakeholders. <h2>What are the experts saying? </h2>Says Anuj Puri, Chairman - ANAROCK Group, "The RBI's decision to keep repo rates unchanged at 6.5% for ninth consecutive time aligns well with yesterday's announcement on indexation benefits. It sets a positive tone for the housing industry. Maintaining interest rates offers consistency in borrowing costs, which will prompt more aspiring homebuyers to consider taking the plunge - and thus drive demand in the housing market. With interest rates staying steady, EMIs will remain manageable for current and potential homeowners, potentially leading to increased home sales - particularly in the price-sensitive affordable segment". <h2>When is the next MPC scheduled?</h2>The upcoming RBI MPC meets are scheduled to take place between October 7th and 9th, December 4th an 6th, 2024, and February 5th and 7th, 2025.

RBI MPC Meet: Repo rates unchanged at 6.5%, inflation moderating, albeit slowly

New Delhi, India's <keyword id="413762" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="manufacturing-sector-growth" source="Orion">manufacturing sector growth</keyword> fell to an 18-month low in December amid softer increase in factory orders and output, despite minimal inflation, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The <keyword id="20046281" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hsbc-india-manufacturing-pmi-survey" source="Orion">HSBC India Manufacturing PMI survey</keyword>, conducted by S&amp;P Global, showed that there were softer, albeit sharp, increase in factory orders and output, while business confidence towards the year-ahead outlook strengthened. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing <keyword id="726966" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Purchasing-Managers-Index" source="Orion">Purchasing Managers' Index</keyword> (PMI) fell from 56 in November to an 18-month low of 54.9 in December. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI is compiled by S&amp;P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 400 manufacturers. "India's manufacturing sector continued to expand in December, although at a softer pace, following an uptick in the previous month. Growth of both output and new orders softened, but on the other hand, the future output index rose since November," said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC. Despite a loss of growth momentum, the sector still expanded strongly in December. New business gains, favourable market conditions, fairs and expositions collectively induced another sharp increase in manufacturing production during December, according to panellists. The December data showed a 21st consecutive increase in international order receipts at goods producers in India. "Companies noted gains from clients in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and North America. New export sales expanded at a moderate pace that was the joint-slowest in eight months," the survey noted. On the prices front, input costs rose at the second-slowest rate in nearly three-and-a-half years and charge inflation softened to a nine-month low. Among the items reported to have been up in price were chemicals, paper and textiles. Little-changed from November, however, the rate of inflation was negligible by historical standards and was the second-weakest in just under three-and-a-half years, as per the survey. "Rates of increase in input and output prices were broadly unchanged," Bhandari added. HSBC India PMI data showed a general lack of pressure on the capacity of manufacturers at the end of the third fiscal quarter. Subsequently, employment was largely stable in December. When assessing the year-ahead outlook for production, Indian manufacturers were at their most upbeat for three months. Anecdotal evidence highlighted advertising, better customer relations and new enquiries as the main factors boosting business confidence in December, the survey said.

India's manufacturing sector growth falls to 18-month low in December on softer rise in orders, output

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Iran launched a massive ballistic missile strike on Israel on Tuesday.</li><li>Israel has vowed to retaliate, potentially against Iran's oil infrastructure.</li></ul>Israel has vowed to respond to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/irans-ineffective-strike-on-israel-intended-to-cause-massive-damage-2024-10">Iran's massive ballistic missile strike</a> earlier this week, and it may have Iranian oil production facilities in its sights.Such a move <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-israel-iran-geopolitics-middle-east-war-crude-2024-10?_gl=1*4tz29s*_ga*MTA1MjU1Njk3Ni4xNzE1MzY2MDU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODA0OTQxNy4zNTQuMC4xNzI4MDQ5NDIzLjU0LjAuMA">could prompt a spike in oil prices</a>, which are already surging after the attack and in anticipation of Israeli retaliation. Such an outcome could create a headache for Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential campaign in the final weeks before the pivotal election.Historically, presidents in office when gas prices surge don't fare well. Political scientists have found that a rise in gasoline prices is correlated with a drop in presidential approval. Incumbents or their party don't usually fare well when viewed unpopularly. Fairly or unfairly, Americans blame the president when it costs more to fill up, even if the events causing a price spike are out of their control.Analysts say that, for now, all sides have incentives to avoid taking actions that could further destabilize the region."I think there is still a little bit of stability in an unstable world; it wasn't like Russia's invasion of Ukraine," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told Business Insider."The Middle East is really critical," he said, "but there's a lot of pressure on both sides to have this not escalate into a war. I think it would be really exceptional to see this escalate out of control."De Haan pointed to how oil markets responded to Iran's attack in April, spiking briefly before going back down. The major concern this time around is that Israeli leaders seem to want a much larger response than what occurred in the spring."In April, we saw an extremely limited Israeli response, striking a single air defense battery in central Iran. This was meant as a message to Tehran that Israel can successfully target and destroy Iranian assets over long distances if necessary," Clay Seigle, a political risk strategist, told Business Insider. But in July, Israel destroyed an oil import terminal controlled by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.While the attack had a limited impact on the Houthis, the message was clear to Iran, "highlighting the fact that oil assets are on the target list of Israeli planners. The message was repeated earlier this week with a second such Israeli attack on Houthi-controlled oil and energy facilities," Siegle said.<div type="image" title="Iranian oil facilities in Khark Island, including a stretch of white pipes leading towards the island, with a grey sky background." height="3791" width="5687" msid="113965878" hostid="261" sizebytes="1153196"></div>Analysts say a direct attack on Iranian oil refineries or larger unrest in the region would potentially affect shipping routes in the Straight of Hormuz.The market has been able to absorb concerns about past events. Kit Haines, a global crude analyst at Energy Aspects, said that fears about supply issues related to sanctions after Russia's invasion of Ukraine or the 2019 drone attack on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil largely did not match the actual realities.Still, Haines said that this time, the concern is about broader potential unrest in the region."This time around, I think people are seriously worried," he said, explaining that "we have seen things go off in the Middle East before, but actually, there is a pretty sizeable potential here that it could impact supply. It's not necessarily about what any Israeli response will do, I think it is the secondary effects of that.<h2 id="8ca6c26e-88d6-4509-98a8-c81bef5e5f75">Israel has vowed to retaliate after Iran's massive attack earlier this week</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/irans-missile-strike-israel-just-fraction-what-china-could-do-2024-10">Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles on Israel</a> on Tuesday, likely the largest such attack in history, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">in response</a> to Israel's killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last week and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in July. Iran's targets were apparently mostly military and government installations, some of which are near or in densely populated central Israel.Israel, with help from US forces in the region, said it largely intercepted the attack, with the Biden administration saying that the strike was "defeated and ineffective." Although much is still unclear about the impact of the attack, some satellite imagery has shown Iranian missiles did hit Israeli military targets. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate with US support."The regime of Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves," Netanyahu said, adding that "they will understand. We will stand by the rule we established: Whoever attacks, we will attack them."<div type="image" title="A photo showing some of Iran's missiles flying down in the night sky above the cityscape of Jerusalem, Israel." height="3456" width="5184" msid="113965880" hostid="261" sizebytes="461002"></div>Speculation about which potential Iranian targets Israel could strike have shifted from Iran's nuclear production facilities to the country's vast <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/03/crude-oil-prices-today.html">oil production facilities</a>. Iran is a significant oil producer with major reserves and production capabilities.In the aftermath of the attack, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworker-strike-hurricane-helene-israel-palestine-iran-supply-chains-inflation-2024-10">the price of oil has already surged up</a>, prompting concerns that, should the conflict broaden and potentially further entangle US forces in the region, oil and gas prices could skyrocket.Seigle said that market prices tend to "fluctuate in times of actual or feared supply shortages as traders re-price the value of an increasingly scarce commodity relative to demand," noting that supply disruption is related primarily to two factors: how much oil is offline and for how long.If Israel did strike Iran's oil, it would likely have two main targets. One is its oil refiners, which provide the country with transportation fuels and gasoline. The other is Iran's production and export facilities.If Israel hit even a few of its petroleum refiners, it "could create a gasoline fuel shortage in Iran," Seigle said. But that wouldn't necessarily impact the global oil supply. If Israel struck Iran's oil production and export facilities, that would have "far greater repercussions," he said. "A military operation that cuts this output would leave the world with less crude supply, causing prices to rise. This week, for the first time, markets finally began contemplating this scenario; oil prices have increased more than 5 percent as this risk begins to be 'priced in,' Seigle said.US President Joe Biden has weighed in on discussions surrounding what Israel's retaliation could look like. On Wednesday, Biden said the US wouldn't support Israeli strikes on sites related to Iran's nuclear program. Then, on Thursday, he said the US and Israel were discussing whether the US would support Israel striking Iran's oil facilities.Hours after Biden's comment, crude oil prices jumped 5%. The National Iranian Tanker Company also moved its tankers from Kharg Island's oil terminal in apparent fear of an imminent attack, per <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/1841895357434732660">TankerTrackers.com</a>, an independent online service that keeps tabs on the movements of crude oil.On Friday, Biden appeared to backtrack on his earlier targeting comments, telling reporters that if he were in the Israeli's shoes, he would consider alternate targets.<div type="image" title="Joe Biden" height="1333" width="2000" msid="113965877" hostid="261" sizebytes="117154"></div>The risk of the conflict expanding is high. Nicholas Carl, the researcher manager of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.criticalthreats.org">American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project</a> who focuses on Iran, explained to Business Insider that "throughout this entire series of events," there's been "extraordinary risk of miscalculations" for both sides.If the US did support striking oil facilities, it would come at odds with Washington's stance on Ukraine doing the same thing to Russia. Earlier this year, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-wont-stop-targeting-russias-oil-refineries-will-defy-us-2024-3">US urged Ukraine to cease its attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure</a>, warning its drone strikes could drive up global oil prices and provoke retaliation.At the time, Ukraine was using long-range attack drones to strike various Russian oil refineries, terminals, storage facilities, and depots, intending to hurt its production capacity. Russia is one of the world's largest energy exporters, although the US and its allies have imposed hefty sanctions on its industries.Washington's concerns came just as Biden began pushing his reelection campaign and before his historic dropout."US policymakers and politicians are more dedicated to Israel's security (and to showcasing this dedication) than they are to Ukraine's," Seigle said. Publicly, they're less likely to rein Israel in from those ambitions. Privately, though, Biden officials are "surely very concerned" about the impact of such a strike," he added.Israel and Iran hold "more potential to disrupt global markets and send prices surging than does the Russia-Ukraine war," Seigle said.<h2 id="f45eb6e9-e88e-489e-95a4-b2d1c7d08722">Few things are watched more closely than gas prices ahead of an election</h2><div type="image" title="Kamala Harris" height="4577" width="6865" msid="113965876" hostid="261" sizebytes="666498"></div>If Israel does target Iran's oil industry, the 2024 presidential election could be rocked by rising oil prices ahead of the majority of the voting.Oil prices had notably been trending downwards in the months prior to Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel. Back in September, global oil prices fell to the lowest level in almost three years, and the US has seen a historic year of oil production.But if prices at the pump were to soar in response to upheavals abroad amid domestic concerns about issues like inflation, it could be a problem, as it has been historically. That said, the impact of changes like these has begun to lessen in this hyperpartisan era. It is increasingly less likely for a president's approval rating to swing dramatically.As of Friday, the national average was at $3.17 a gallon, according to GasBuddy. At the end of September, the average was down both on a month-to-month basis and on a year-to-year basis. Predicting gas prices can be difficult, given just how dramatically markets can shift, but De Haan said he did not expect prices to "skyrocket out of control.""I think there are some reasons why gas prices would remain in somewhat of a check, but if some of these boxes start getting checked at the same time, if there are significant escalations in the Middle East, and if there's a perfect storm in the US, a perfect hurricane knocking out refining capacity, it could still lead to a surge in price before Election Day," he said. "I just think the odds of a major surge are rather low."

You Searched For "output price inflation" and got 11 results

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