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The polls were wrong, again. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/startup-success-secret-vcs-founders-nate-silver-on-the-edge-2024-8">Nate Silver</a> ran 80,000 simulations of election outcomes and found that Vice President Kamala Harris won in 40,012 of them. The race that Donald Trump ultimately ran away with was deemed neck and neck for days — unless you looked at the prediction markets.Election betting on Kalshi and Polymarket had been favoring Trump for weeks. Days before the election, Polymarket odds showed Trump had a 60% chance of winning. The electorate took notice: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kalshi-polymarket-top-apple-app-store-downloads-election-betting-surge-2024-11">Kalshi and Polymarket soared to the top of Apple's App Store</a> on Tuesday evening.On Wednesday morning, the platforms claimed that their victory was as resounding as Trump's."Last night, Kalshi showed how prediction markets can decisively outperform polls and traditional media," Kalshi posted on X. "Not only did our markets offer a sharper view of the Election, we called it before anyone else.""Make no mistake, Polymarket single-handedly called the election before anything else," Shayne Coplan, the company's 26-year-old CEO, posted. "The global truth machine is here, powered by the people." He says Polymarket conveyed a Trump victory two to three hours ahead of traditional media. "It is an inflection point in news and politics," he told CNBC. "Trust the markets, not the polls," he said on X.Should we? And can the prediction markets ride their momentum now that the election's over?<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/betting-markets-polls-trump-election-win-polymarket-kalshi-2024-11">Polymarket and Kalshi</a> have been building quietly, and they view elections as their chance to go mainstream. Coplan has said he was running the crypto-based company alone in his bathroom in 2020. Kalshi was founded in 2018 by two MIT grads. Both became household names just this fall. In addition to politics, people can bet on sports, business, and pop culture, with contracts about whether <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-salary-database-elon-musk-pay-strategy-2024-11">Elon Musk</a> will post on X a certain number of times in a week and whether Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged. In late October, Robinhood began offering election betting. There's also PredictIt, which is operated by Victoria University in New Zealand but focuses on US politics.Xavier Sottile, the head of markets at Kalshi, tells me that election night exceeded even the high expectations Kalshi had set for itself. A US appeals court lifted a freeze on Kalshi in October, allowing the site to list contracts that allow for bets on the election. More than 500,000 people were using Kalshi concurrently on election night — both to place bets and to peer into the results of the election. Bettors poured $476 million into the presidential race's outcome on Kalshi. Polymarket's site says more than $3.6 billion was spent betting on the race, though users in the US weren't legally allowed to participate."Nothing is as salient as the presidential election," Sottile says. "But there are things that get pretty salient in the national news." Already Kalshi is adding contracts on outcomes of the second Trump administration, like whether Musk or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be given a Cabinet position, whether tips will no longer be taxed, or whether Trump will be impeached for the third time. (Polymarket is taking wagers on whether Trump will end the war in Ukraine during his first 90 days in office, whether he'll declassify documents related to the assassination of John F. Kennedy, and whom he may pardon.) The sum of the bets being placed on these are a fraction of the election bonanza, but Sottile says there are enough of them, and enough interest, for Kalshi to seize the smaller moments.While the prediction markets are hailing themselves as oracles better equipped to predict the future than polls, Sottile says this isn't the end of polling, which helps inform the odds on Kalshi. But, Kalshi does "want to replace polling," he says, "in the sense that what are you checking every morning to figure out what's going on?"The argument for prediction markets' accuracy is that people are more decisive with their money, picking outcomes they think will happen, not just ones they want to happen. "When they actually put their money behind what they say, they're putting themselves out there," says Koleman Strumpf, a professor of economics at Wake Forest University. He predicts that prediction markets will be around for 2028 — and they'll be bigger. They're also ways to distill the daily news cycle. Rather than reading several news stories about RFK Jr.'s chance of having a Cabinet position, people can turn to the markets. Instead of following each presidential poll, you can see information aggregated as odds on Polymarket. "The stuff I can learn from these markets is incredible," Strumpf says. The betting markets are "not a silver bullet," James Broughel, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, says. "They have their own imperfections, just like all of the other metrics do." While the markets nailed that outcome, they didn't forecast the popular vote as precisely: On Polymarket at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Trump had just a 28% chance of winning. Kalshi wagers on the popular vote didn't favor Trump until 11 p.m. The platforms have raised concerns about whether individuals with fat pockets can sway politics. The French trader who pumped more than $30 million into Polymarket is thought to have made <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">$85 million</a> when Trump won. But this wasn't an indication of support: The man, who is known only as Théo, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/trump-odds-polymarket-election-betting-whale-3d94bed3">The Wall Street Journal</a> that he had "absolutely no political agenda" but believed Trump would win.Kalshi says that it ensures that all contracts on its site have "minimal risk of manipulation" and that it does not incentivize "harmful behavior." The platform bans trading on war, assassination, and illegal activity, and it bars people with insider information on the contract from participating. (For bets on politics, that can include campaign staffers and donors.) Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment for this story. In a note on an available contract about whether Iran will strike Israel — on which more than $1 million has been traded — Polymarket says, "After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not."Prediction markets are "going to attract people who want to influence public perception," Broughel says. Instead of spending money on TV ads or donating, supporters of certain political candidates may find ways to place wagers to use their influence. "I suspect as these markets grow more prominent, it's possible their usefulness will decline," Broughel added. Eighty-five percent of people who've placed bets on Kalshi are men, and more than 70% of people are under 40, according to the company. Those stats aren't surprising: Research suggests that men are more likely than women to gamble, buy stocks, and trade crypto. But Sottile argues that even if the platforms become more mainstream and diversified, prices and predictions will likely stay similar, as there are lots of people trading on the big election issues to balance out differing viewpoints.As we wait to see how Polymarket, Kalshi, and their competitors fare in 2028, there are wagers to place on questions like whether Trump will <a target="_blank" href="https://polymarket.com/event/trump-transgender-sports-ban?tid=1731342855843">bar transgender athletes</a> from participating in sports or whether <a target="_blank" href="https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnytsubs/nyt-subscribers">The New York Times</a> gains a certain number of subscribers. Don't bet on these prediction markets going away anytime soon.<a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/amanda-hoover">Amanda Hoover</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider covering the tech industry. She writes about the biggest tech companies and trends.

Polymarket predicted Trump's win. Now comes the hard part.

In a massive move for the country’s growing climate woes, India is aiming to control weather phenomena like rainfall, lightning, and hail within five years. Dubbed "<keyword id="23131560" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mission-Mausam" source="keywords">Mission Mausam</keyword>," this government-backed initiative includes the development of <keyword id="23148975" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mausam-GPT" source="keywords">Mausam GPT</keyword>, a weather AI model designed to enhance prediction accuracy and even manipulate the weather. This would make India one of the first countries to experiment with <keyword id="21369368" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="weather-modification" source="keywords">weather modification</keyword> on a significant scale. <h2>Mission Mausam</h2>India’s "Mission Mausam" aims to reshape the future of weather management by using technology to control rain. Over the next 18 months, the government will start with lab simulations to either enhance or suppress rainfall. The ultimate goal, as outlined by Earth Sciences Secretary M. Ravichandran, is to roll out full-scale weather modification within five years. He stated that the initiative could even target events like Independence Day, where “one can think about suppressing rain.” By deploying <keyword id="20644540" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cloud-seeding" source="keywords">cloud seeding</keyword> techniques alongside AI-driven weather prediction tools like "Mausam GPT," the mission seeks to significantly improve India’s ability to manage extreme weather conditions. A key aspect of the plan involves building a robust system of advanced radars, supercomputers, satellites with high-performance sensors, and GIS-based decision support systems. This cutting-edge tech is expected to boost India’s short- and medium-range weather forecasting accuracy by 5-10%, ensuring no event — such as cloudbursts — goes undetected. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113251187" title="India braces for an intensely harsh winter as La Niña takes hold" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>India is not new to weather manipulation efforts. The government has been running pilot projects, such as the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) in Maharashtra, to study cloud properties and enhance rainfall. <h2>Why is weather manipulation necessary and is it safe?</h2>Extreme weather events in India, like deadly floods, droughts, and hailstorms, have noticeably increased in frequency due to <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword>. Mission Mausam could potentially give India an edge in combating these disasters. For example, imagine preventing a flood by suppressing rain or creating artificial rain during a drought. India’s investment of Rs 2,000 crore over two years certainly reflects the seriousness of the mission, which is expected to expand further as research progresses. However, weather modification, including cloud seeding, is not without controversy. Globally, cloud seeding has had limited success, with countries like the US, Russia, and China also experimenting with these methods but facing inconsistent results. Even former MoES Secretary Madhavan Rajeevan has noted that “the technology is complex” and still in its developmental stages. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112825937" title="Shivaji Maharaj Statue collapse: Identifying 5 reasons behind the accident" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Further, the potential downsides can't be ignored. While controlling the weather could save lives, meddling with natural processes is risky. Weather manipulation might have unintended ecological consequences, like shifting rainfall patterns that could harm ecosystems and agriculture. It may also pose geopolitical risks, as neighbouring countries could accuse India of altering weather systems that affect their own climates. Ultimately, while the idea of managing the weather may seem appealing, it opens up a Pandora’s box of environmental and ethical challenges that need careful consideration.

The Indian government is taking steps to control rainfall and weather within five years — is it too risky of a move?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Prediction markets show Trump leading Harris in <keyword id="19952061" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="2024-election" source="keywords">2024 election</keyword> odds.</li><li>Betting platform <keyword id="22291329" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Polymarket" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Polymarket" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Polymarket">Polymarket</keyword> has seen its trading volume surge, with $1.24 billion bet in October alone.</li></ul>With the Presidential election less than three weeks away, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-national-polls-election-2024-10">polls are in a virtual dead heat</a> between candidates Donald Trump and <keyword id="20307089" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kamala-Harris" source="keywords">Kamala Harris</keyword>. But the election odds look somewhat different in the prediction markets, where people can bet money on the outcome of a race, and the constantly changing odds of a Harris or Trump win on these marketplaces are being closely watched by politicos. Since the start of October, there's been a notable divergence between the <keyword id="22477782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="betting-markets" source="keywords">betting markets</keyword> and the polls. Despite numerous polling averages showing a close race between Harris and Trump, with all major battleground states within the margin of error, the betting markets have moved decisively for Trump. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-soars-crypto-president-donald-trumps-election-betting-odds-2024-10">Rumblings have grown</a> that a single person or a consortium of people could be tipping the scale for Trump on the betting platform Polymarket, placing a series of big bets totaling $30 million, in a bid to boost the narrative that he's a shoo-in for the November election. Here's what you need to know. <h2>1. What is Polymarket?</h2>Polymarket is a <keyword id="23618251" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crypto-based-predictions" source="keywords">crypto-based predictions</keyword> market that has become one of the most popular venues for placing online bets on upcoming elections. The prediction market was founded in 2020 and requires users to place bets via stablecoins. Stablecoins are crypto tokens pegged to a fiat currency like the dollar and rarely deviate from their $1 value. Polymarket allows investors to bet on yes or no questions. For example: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential election? Polymarket also allows its users to "trade" its bets, or sell out early for potential profits or to cut their losses. This year, Polymarket has seen $1.75 billion worth of trading volume according to data from The Block, with betting activity exploding on US election outcomes. In October alone, the betting market has seen $1.24 billion in trading volume. Before 2024, Polymarket's monthly trading volume rarely topped $10 million. <h2>2. Who is invested in Polymarket?</h2>Polymarket investors include early Facebook backer Peter Thiel, Ethereum cofounder Vitalik Buterin, and Airbnb cofounder Joe Gebbia. The company has raised a total of $74 million, according to data from Crunchbase. <h2>3. Where do election odds stand in betting markets now?</h2>Donald Trump has a massive lead over Kamala Harris in the betting markets. As of 11:55 a.m. on Friday, Polymarket odds showed Trump had a 60.1% chance of becoming the 47th President of the United States compared to just 39.8% for Kamala Harris. There is currently $628.5 million wagered on Trump, compared to $416.6 million wagered on a Harris victory. Kalshi, another betting market that recently received approval from a US federal appeals court to operate and take election wagers from US-based bettors, is also skewed heavily toward Trump at 57% vs 43% for Harris. However, the race is much tighter in the polls. Harris maintains a 2-point lead over Trump, at 48.3% versus 46.3%, according to the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/" target="_blank">latest polling average compiled by 538</a>. Swing-state polls are even tighter, with 538 polling averages showing nearly 50-50 odds for the candidates in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. <h2>4. What's going on with the "Trump whale" in the betting markets?</h2>Because Polymarket is decentralized and takes bets via crypto, there's a lot of data to parse through on individual bets, like the source of the crypto wallet a particular wager came from. According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/betting-election-pro-trump-ad74aa71?mod=hp_lead_pos1">a report from The Wall Street Journal</a>, four Polymarket accounts have bet a combined $30 million that Trump will win the election. An analysis of the four accounts by blockchain analysis firm Arkham Intelligence suggests "there's strong reason to believe they are the same entity." The four accounts, which go by the names of Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie, have exhibited similar behaviors and were all funded by deposits from crypto exchange Kraken, according to Arkham. <h2>5. Is the $30 million "Trump whale" an influence campaign?</h2>Because the betting markets are relatively illiquid, a $30 million bet can have a big influence on moving the odds in favor of Trump. The accounts have also wagered millions of dollars on Trump winning key swing states like Pennsylvania and winning the popular vote, which is seen as a long shot. Adam Cochran, a veteran crypto investor, told The Wall Street Journal that the betting spree on Polymarket appears to be a campaign to boost the narrative that Trump has a lot of momentum going into election day. "It is by far the most efficient political advertising one can buy," Cochran to the Journal. When Trump's odds of winning the election initially soared on Polymarket on October 7, Elon Musk, who has strongly endorsed Trump and pledged to contribute tens of millions of dollars to getting him in office again, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1843363275398169020">retweeted</a> a screenshot of the election odds and said, "Victory is not enough, it must be absolutely decisive victory." To be sure, there is no evidence that the apparent "Trump whale" is trying to manipulate the betting markets, and it could just be that the person or persons have an incredibly strong conviction that Trump will win the election next month. Something similar occurred in the weeks leading up to the 2012 Presidential election, when a so-called "Romney whale" placed a flurry of bets totaling almost $7 million that Mitt Romney would win the election, using the betting market Intrade, which is now out of business. That whale ended up losing it all, as Barack Obama secured a second term. Editor's note: The story has been updated to clarify that the data provided by 538 is an average of multiple polls, not a single national poll.

What to know about the potential $30 million whale moving betting markets toward Trump

Perth: (The Conversation) Last week, three tiny Australian satellites from Curtin University's <keyword id="23932163" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Binar-Space-Program" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Binar Space Program" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Binar Space Program">Binar Space Program</keyword> burned up in Earth's atmosphere. That was always going to happen. In fact, Binar means "fireball" in the Noongar language of the First Nations people of Perth. When a satellite is in low Earth orbit (2,000km or less), it experiences orbital decay as it drags closer and closer to the surface, eventually burning up. But these cube satellites (<keyword id="21533654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CubeSats" source="keywords">CubeSats</keyword>), known as Binar-2, 3 and 4, entered the atmosphere much sooner than originally planned. They only lasted for two months - a third of what was expected. This significantly reduced valuable time for science and testing new systems. The reason for their untimely demise? Our Sun has kicked into high gear, and the Binar satellites are far from the only casualty. Recent high <keyword id="20792842" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Solar-activity" source="keywords">solar activity</keyword> has been causing an unexpected headache for satellite operators in the last few years, and it's only increasing. <h2>Why is the Sun so active? </h2> Solar activity includes phenomena such as sunspots, solar flares and solar wind - the stream of charged particles that flows toward Earth. This activity is a product of the Sun's ever-changing magnetic field, and approximately every 11 years, it completely flips. At the midpoint of this cycle, solar activity is at its highest. While this cycle is known, specific solar activity is challenging to predict - the dynamics are complex and solar forecasting is in its infancy. In the last few months, indicators of solar activity were more than one and a half times higher than predictions for this point in the current cycle, labelled <keyword id="22712826" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="solar-cycle-25" source="keywords">solar cycle 25</keyword>. <h2>The impact of <keyword id="20087207" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="space-weather" source="keywords">space weather</keyword> </h2> Space weather refers to the environmental effects that originate from outside our atmosphere (mostly the Sun). It affects us on Earth in a variety of noticeable and unnoticeable ways. The most obvious is the presence of auroras. In the past few months, auroras have been visible far more intensely and closer to the equator than in the last two decades. This is a direct result of the increased solar activity. Space weather, and solar activity in particular, also creates additional challenges for satellites and satellite operators. Higher solar activity means more solar flares and stronger solar wind - resulting in a higher flux of charged particles that can damage or disrupt electrical components on satellites. It also means an increase in ionising radiation, resulting in a higher dose for astronauts and pilots, and potential disruptions to long-distance radio communications. But for satellites in low Earth orbit, the most consistent effect of solar activity is that the extra energy gets absorbed into the outer atmosphere, causing it to balloon outward. As a result, all satellites less than 1,000km from Earth experience a significant increase in <keyword id="23473319" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="atmospheric-drag" source="keywords">atmospheric drag</keyword>. This is a force that disrupts their orbit and causes them to fall towards the planet's surface. Notable satellites in this region include the International Space Station and the Starlink constellation. These satellites have thrusters to counteract this effect, but these corrections can be expensive. Low Earth orbit also contains many university satellites, such as the Binar CubeSats. Cube satellites are rarely equipped with tools that can adjust their altitude, so they're entirely at the mercy of space weather. <h2>What happened to Binar? </h2> The Binar Space Program is a satellite research program operating out of Curtin University. It aims to advance our understanding of the Solar System and lower the barrier for operating in space. The program began operations with its first satellite, Binar-1, in September 2021. This was less than a year into solar cycle 25 when solar activity was relatively low. In these conditions, the ten-centimetre cube satellite started at an altitude of 420km and survived a full 364 days in orbit. The program's follow-up mission - Binar-2, 3, and 4 - were three equally sized CubeSats. However, they were expected to last approximately six months owing to the extra surface area from new deployable solar arrays and a forecast increase in solar activity. Instead, they only made it to two months before burning up. While cube satellite missions are relatively cheap, the premature ending of a mission will always be costly. This is even more true for commercial satellites, highlighting the need for more accurate space weather forecasting. The good news is the Sun will calm down again. Despite the current unexpectedly high solar activity, it will likely slow down by 2026, and is expected to return to a solar minimum in 2030. While this was not an explicit goal of the mission, the Binar Space Program has now poignantly demonstrated the dramatic effects of solar activity on space operations. While the untimely loss of Binar-2, 3 and 4 was unfortunate, work has already begun on future missions. They are expected to launch into far more forgiving space weather. (The Conversation).

Right now, the Sun is far more active than predicted - and small satellites are paying the price

Over the next week, super heavy showers are set to hit the Indian subcontinent, especially in the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, South Interior Karnataka, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Arunachal Pradesh, and Gujarat, the IMD (<keyword id="19963725" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-Meteorological-Department" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Indian Meteorological Department" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Indian Meteorological Department">Indian Meteorological Department</keyword>) has predicted. Yesterday, India's financial capital, Mumbai was hit by a surprise, albeit hefty deluge of rain. Consequently, a yellow alert was issued for Thane, Pune, Palghar and other areas near to Mumbai. Between October 13-16, very heavy rainfalls are also expected in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. It's no secret that incessant rains also bring about significant economic damages. As seen very often in the past, a constant barrage of torrential rains can also quickly create a flood-like situation, which can wipe away houses, vehicles and everything that comes in its way. Per media reports, the average economic impact on India due to <keyword id="19912527" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="floods" source="keywords">floods</keyword> between 2011 and 2021 has been a staggering Rs 25,805 crore. Imagine this-your entire se is flooded. Water has seeped into everything—your walls, furniture, and even the plumbing. Without a <keyword id="22058670" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="home-insurance" source="keywords">home insurance</keyword>, you'll have to spend a hefty amount towards repairs and to get your life and home back on track. <h2>Getting your home insured</h2>So, if you are wondering how to protect your hard earned material but immovable assets like house, the answer is right in front of you- Home Insurance. Says Dilip Baba, Head of Commercial and Speciality Underwriting, Go Digit General Insurance, "People usually spend their entire life savings on purchasing a home. However, people rarely think about how to protect their investment. By investing in the safety of home insurance, you can enjoy peace of mind knowing that your property is covered in case of unforeseen events. With home insurance, you can opt for three types of coverage-structure, content and comprehensive. While structure simply insures the physical, immovable formation of your house (walls, roofs), content coverage goes a step ahead and takes care of damage caused to your movable items like furniture, electronics and other items due to natural calamities, theft and more, up to a certain limit. This can also include any valuable artwork or antiques, or additional installation like solar panels you might have at your home. A comprehensive home insurance brings together both structure and contents in its insurance ambit. Having a home insurance can not just protect you from natural calamities like floods, but also from unforeseen events like theft, fire and more. The annual premium of a home insurance policy can range between Rs 2,000 to Rs 10,000 depending on the type and extent of coverage taken. Before buying a policy, be sure to clarify whether it offers actual cash value, which considers depreciation, or replacement/reinstatement cost, which covers the full replacement without depreciation deductions. To be on the safe side, you can also choose additional covers like accidental death insurance, or rent coverage, if you lose out on rental income due to damage caused to your property. You can use the carpet area of your house to get a sense of your home insurance requirements. Other covers you can opt for include valuable contents (on agreed value basis under home contents cover), additional living expense cover, tenant liability insurance, among others. Says Amit Bhandari, Chief Technical Officer at Magma HDI General Insurance, "When selecting a policy, it’s crucial to assess the unique risks that your home may face, particularly if you live in an area susceptible to <keyword id="19922196" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="natural-disasters" source="keywords">natural disasters</keyword>. You should tailor your coverage to address these risks while considering premium reduction strategies, such as excluding unnecessary coverages".

Heavy rains to lash across the country between Oct 12-16, here's how you can insure your home from rain's fury

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Good morning! With the holidays just around the corner, it might not hurt to earn a little extra cash. Four people with side-hustle experience <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/side-hustle-recommendations-passive-income-content-creation-amazon-etsy-2024-10">shared tips on their top gig recommendations</a>.In today's big story, betting on the presidential election is all the rage. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10">Can it keep the momentum going</a>?What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Blackstone's boss thinks Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/finance-ceos-supporting-trump-blackstone-steve-schwarzman-citadel-ken-griffin-2024-10">would be a better president the second time around</a>.</li><li>Tech: Google's earnings <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-third-quarter-earnings-report-q3-2024-2024-10">were a big hit with investors</a>.</li><li>Business: What a Trump or Harris win <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-affordability-supply-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-homebuyers-harris-trump-2024-10">means for the cost of housing</a>.</li></ul>But first, wanna bet?If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Presidential bets</h2><div type="image" title="Kamala Harris and Donald Trump with dice" height="812" width="1083" msid="114782269" hostid="261" sizebytes="50032"></div>We're less than a week from election day, but one group can already claim victory: betting markets.Platforms allowing users to bet on the US presidential race have become the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10">surprise star of election season</a>, writes Business Insider's Matthew Fox. And it could eventually change how we view any potential outcome, not just future elections.Kalshi, which has attracted more than $100 million in election-related bets, is currently one of the most popular apps in the Apple App Store. The trading app Robinhood also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/presidential-election-betting-robinhood-legal-odds-2024-10">got in on the action</a> on Monday.Kalshi's <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/betting-us-election-cftc-kalshi-legal-battle-prediction-market-2024-10">legal victory in October over the CFTC</a> to offer election betting paved the way for the trend. But predictions markets are also spiking abroad where they've existed for years.Polymarket, which is not available to US citizens, has seen $2 billion in wagers this month, up from $533 million in September, according to The Block. Last year, the website averaged less than $20 million in monthly trading volume.The rise of election-betting markets hasn't been without controversy.A "whale" trader betting on former President Donald Trump to win the election grabbed headlines and drew conspiracy theories. Polymarket <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-donald-trump-betting-odds-whale-french-trader-harris-polls-2024-10">confirmed the user was a French national</a> with trading experience betting on Trump "based on personal views of the election."<div type="image" title="A young man in the center of a $100 bill" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114782272" hostid="261" sizebytes="563774"></div>The betting market's biggest tests might come after the election.Supporters of prediction markets say they're <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-harris-prediction-markets-polls-presidential-election-polymarket-024-8">more accurate than traditional polls</a>, citing their ability to quickly adapt to the latest news and the fact participants are invested in the outcome.This election will serve as a good test of that theory, as there's a wide gap between the two approaches. Betting markets have Trump as a heavy favorite, whereas traditional polls indicate a tight race.Should Trump win in a landslide, it could strengthen the case for using betting markets as a key tool for election analysis. Nate Silver, one of the most well-known polling analysts, is already an advisor to Polymarket.But a presidential race only happens once every four years. What about the rest of the time?If the past few years have taught us anything, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gambling-young-men-sports-betting-crypto-meme-stock-market-addiction-2024-4">this country loves to gamble</a>. From crypto to meme stocks to sports, young men, in particular, are happy to bet on just about anything.Prediction markets' business model can lean into that theme. On Kalshi, you can currently wager on whether the Tesla robotaxi will be released before 2026 or if the US will ban TikTok before May.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Why Boeing's $21 billion share sale is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-capital-raise-ecm-bankers-bonuses-wall-street-comp-expert-2024-10">an early Christmas present for Wall Street</a>.</li><li>How Trump vs. Harris is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-political-contributions-by-name-for-trump-vs-harris-2024-8">playing out on Wall Street</a>.</li><li>The Fed is likely to disappoint markets with just one more rate cut this year amid global inflation, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cut-rates-inflation-powell-blackrock-ceo-larry-fink-2024-10">BlackRock CEO says</a>.</li><li>Microsoft just ramped up its cloud rivalry with Google by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-google-shadow-campaigns-cloud-regulation-undermine-business-azure-2024-10">accusing it of 'shadow campaigns'</a>.</li><li>Snap <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/snap-surges-gets-major-boost-from-ai-push-paid-users-2024-10">surges 10%</a> as it gets a major boost from AI and paid subscribers.</li><li>Google's been on an efficiency drive. Its new CFO said it can '<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-earnings-q3-2024-new-cfo-boost-efficiency-2024-10">push a little further</a>.'</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Mark Zuckerberg speaking on stage." height="1600" width="2870" msid="114782278" hostid="261" sizebytes="38034"></div><ol><li>Wall Street has high hopes for Meta. Thanks to the company's AI optimization, analysts generally <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10">expect positive figures</a> from Meta's third-quarter earnings report today. Bank of America has said the stock is a top AI pick, and investors are keeping an eye on AI growth opportunities.</li><li>Citadel's playing the long game with its shorts. Justin Lubell, the hedge fund's global equities head, said the firm's longest-running equities group made more money shorting stocks than its long-term investments in recent years. Lubell said the strategy benefits from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-citadel-focuses-on-shorting-stocks-according-to-justin-lubell-2024-10">the lack of competition on the short side</a>.</li><li>Two of Wall Street's top executives speculate on Trump's bid for a second term. Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman, who has endorsed Donald Trump, thinks the former president <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/finance-ceos-supporting-trump-blackstone-steve-schwarzman-citadel-ken-griffin-2024-10">would be "efficient and effective" during his second go around</a>. Fellow billionaire and Republican mega-donor Ken Griffin expects Trump to win next week.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="A Linkedin logo sitting on a short stack of applications next to a large stack of applications" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114782270" hostid="261" sizebytes="192558"></div><ol><li>Can LinkedIn save us from hiring hell? The platform wants to help job-seekers apply smarter, not harder, by using AI to optimize the process. The goal is quality over quantity: LinkedIn hopes you'll apply to fewer jobs, but the ones you'll swing for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hiring-broken-linkedin-ai-fix-fewer-jobs-resume-spammers-2024-10">will be better matches</a>.</li><li>Amazon Web Services' Graviton chips are thriving. In 2018, AWS launched Graviton, its own line of homegrown central processing unit chips for data-center servers. Now, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aws-graviton-chips-used-by-90-percent-top-1000-customers-2024-10">90% of AWS's largest server customers have become Graviton users</a>, a company executive told BI.</li><li>Five Apple Intelligence features you can try out now on your iPhone. Some of the highly anticipated AI tools include one that helps summarize long messages, one that limits disruptions, and another that can <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-intelligence-features-tested-on-iphone-16-pro-max-2024-10">edit randos out of your photos</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Harris and Trump." height="1600" width="2400" msid="114782274" hostid="261" sizebytes="312674"></div><ol><li>How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact what you pay for housing. Affordable housing is one of America's top economic concerns heading into the election. Here's how each candidate's proposed policies would affect housing supply, first-time home buyers, urban vs. rural housing, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-affordability-supply-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-homebuyers-harris-trump-2024-10">action against big landlords</a>.</li><li>Alphabet surpassed its third-quarter earnings expectations. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-third-quarter-earnings-report-q3-2024-2024-10">Google's parent company delivered beats on revenue</a>, earnings per share, its advertising business, and Google Cloud revenue. The search giant is all-in on AI — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-earnings-q3-2024-new-code-created-by-ai-2024-10">CEO Sundar Pichai said</a> more than a quarter of the company's new code is created by AI and then checked by employees.</li><li>Is X being influenced by Elon Musk or its users? Musk is self-proclaimed "super MAGA." And X, the social media platform he owns, is more likely to show content from right-leaning accounts, according to reports by The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. But it's unclear whether the platform is showing users what they want to see or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-donald-trump-twitter-x-wsj-washington-post-2024-10">what Musk wants them to see</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Meta, Microsoft, Starbucks, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes Q3 economic growth data.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

Betting on the election is the hottest new trend. But can prediction markets keep the momentum going?  

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hungary's PM Viktor Orbán said the US will abandon its support for Ukraine, days after Trump's win.</li><li>He said that the US "will quit" the war and there's a "military defeat in Ukraine," per reports.</li></ul>Hungary's leader, Viktor Orbán, has a chilling forecast: the US will abandon Ukraine under President-elect Donald Trump."The Americans will quit this war," he told national radio, per multiple outlets, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-pm-orban-says-trump-will-quit-ukraine-war-forcing-eu-rethink-2024-11-08/">Reuters</a>. "There is military defeat in Ukraine."Orbán is Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest ally in the European Union, a position that has put him <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hungary-prime-minister-viktor-orban-shunned-europeanu-union-russia-putin-2024-7">out of favor</a> in the bloc.Trump and Orbán have long shown mutual admiration.In the past, Trump called Orbán his "friend" and lauded him for his knowledge of world affairs. And during his debate with Vice President Kamala Harris in September, Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-presidential-debate-transcript/story?id=113560542">described</a> Orbán as one of the world's "most respected men" — a "strong man" and "a tough person."The Hungarian prime minister's prediction came after Trump secured a return to the White House, and follows reports that Trump's advisors are laying out different plans on how to end the war in Ukraine.One plan includes establishing an 800-mile demilitarized zone and having Ukraine pledge not to join NATO for at least 20 years, The Wall Street Journal <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-advisors-peace-plans-ukraine-demilitarized-zone-no-aid-russia-2024-11">reported</a> Wednesday, citing three people close to Trump.Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, two top officials who served on the National Security Council under Trump's first administration, presented another plan to Trump earlier this year that involved withholding weapons from Ukraine until the country agreed to engage in peace talks with Russia, <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-reviews-plan-halt-us-military-aid-ukraine-unless-it-negotiates-peace-with-2024-06-25/">Reuters</a> reported at the time.Trump hasn't approved a specific plan as yet, those close to him told the Journal.Orbán's forecast comes as world leaders hold key meetings this week, in part to discuss the war in Ukraine.At a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1YqKDkLMnjkxV">press conference</a> held at the European Political Community in Budapest on Thursday, Orbán also urged Europe to define the terms of a Ukrainian victory, saying he hoped this "intellectual" work would be done by Friday night.European leaders are convening at a European Council summit in Budapest on Friday, where they are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2024/11/07-08/?utm_source=x.com&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=20241107-informal-euco-announcer&amp;utm_content=visual-card">expected</a> to discuss security and geopolitics in Ukraine.Meanwhile, in an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hungary-next-months-ukraine-war-far-more-brutal-russia-china-2024-7">Axel Springer</a> media outlets earlier this year, Orbán said he was holding meetings with world leaders as part of a "peace mission" tour to create a "limited-time" cease-fire to speed up peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.Orbán was among the first European leaders to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/PM_ViktorOrban/status/1854062809304154172">congratulate</a> Trump on his victory.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also quickly congratulated Trump, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1854289413246705695">saying</a> that strong and unwavering US leadership is vital for the world and for a just peace.

A pro-Trump European leader predicts he will abandon Ukraine: 'The Americans will quit this war'

The deadly landslides in Kerala's ecologically fragile Wayanad district were triggered by a heavy burst of rainfall, made 10 per cent heavier by <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword>, according to a new rapid attribution study by a global team of scientists. Researchers from India, Sweden, the US and the UK warned that such events will become more common as the climate continues to warm. To measure the impact of human-caused climate change, the scientists from the <keyword id="12008149" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Weather-Attribution" source="Orion">World Weather Attribution</keyword> (WWA) group analysed climate models with high enough resolution to accurately reflect rainfall in the relatively small study area. The models indicated that the intensity of rainfall has increased by 10 per cent due to climate change, they said. The models also predict a further four per cent increase in rainfall intensity if the average <keyword id="21951013" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-temperature" source="keywords">global temperature</keyword> rises by two degrees Celsius compared to the 1850-1900 average. The scientists, however, said there is a "high level of uncertainty" in the model results as the study area is small and mountainous with complex rainfall-climate dynamics. Having said that, the increase in heavy one-day rainfall events aligns with a growing body of scientific evidence on extreme rainfall in a warming world, including in India, and the understanding that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to heavier downpours. According to scientists, the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture increases by about 7 per cent for every one-degree Celsius rise in global temperature. The Earth's global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.3 degrees Celsius due to the rapidly rising concentration of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide and methane. Scientists say this is the reason behind worsening <keyword id="19912530" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="extreme-weather-events" source="keywords">extreme weather events</keyword>, such as droughts, heat waves and floods worldwide. The WWA scientists said that while the relationship between land cover, land use changes and landslide risk in Wayanad is not fully clear from existing studies, factors, such as quarrying for building materials and a 62 per cent reduction in forest cover may have increased the slopes' susceptibility to landslides during heavy rainfall. Other researchers have also linked the <keyword id="22597176" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Wayanad-landslides" source="keywords">Wayanad landslides</keyword> to a combination of forest cover loss, mining in fragile terrain and prolonged rain followed by heavy precipitation. S Abhilash, the director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), had earlier told PTI that the warming of the Arabian Sea is leading to the formation of deep cloud systems, resulting in extremely heavy rainfall in Kerala in a short period and increasing the risk of landslides. "Our research found that the southeast Arabian Sea is becoming warmer, causing the atmosphere above Kerala to become thermodynamically unstable. This instability is allowing the formation of deep clouds," he had said. According to the landslide atlas released by ISRO's National Remote Sensing Centre last year, 10 out of the top 30 landslide-prone districts in India are in Kerala, with Wayanad ranked at the 13th spot. A study published by Springer in 2021 said all landslide hotspots in Kerala are in the Western Ghats region and are concentrated in Idukki, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Wayanad, Kozhikode and Malappuram districts. It said about 59 per cent of total landslides in Kerala have occurred in plantation areas. A 2022 study on depleting forest cover in Wayanad showed that 62 per cent of forests in the district disappeared between 1950 and 2018, while plantation cover rose by around 1,800 per cent.

Wayanad landslides linked to 10% heavier rainfall due to climate change: Study

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Prediction markets can be more accurate than polling when it comes to elections, a professor told Business Insider.</li><li>There's over $606 million wagered on the 2024 election on Polymarket, favoring a Harris win.</li></ul>When trying to figure out the outcome of an election, most look at polling, expert takes, or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-presidential-election-prediction-winner-donald-trump-kamala-harris-2024-8">even the stock market</a>. However, prediction markets, which allow bettors to wager on the outcome of events, may be the most accurate way of calling the result ahead of November 5. They've successfully forecast the last few presidential cycles and even predicted President Joe Biden would drop out weeks in advance.While they're not without their misses — they were notably wrong during the 2022 midterm elections, and after Biden won the 2020 election — Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane says prediction markets are historically more accurate than traditional polling. In the past month, a series of election-related events—an attempted assassination against Trump, President Joe Biden stepping down and endorsing Kamala Harris, and both candidates picking their running mates—have adjusted polling considerably.Yet Crane says these adjustments are often reflected in prediction markets more quickly.Polymarket, a crypto-based betting market, predicted a 70% chance President Joe Biden would drop out of the race this year as far back as July 4, two weeks before he actually bowed out."It's an event-driven market. So the past month has been very active because events have occurred that are of extreme significance," Crane said.And the markets will likely get even quicker at factoring in new information on election night in November.As vote totals, exit polls, and absentee ballots come in, prediction markets "move pretty significantly and pretty quickly in response to that information," he said.<h2 id="7dc81ce7-8b15-46b0-8923-323c06d08f5d">The user base is (literally) invested in the outcome</h2>There's a range of participants in betting markets, and most are making highly informed wagers, Crane said.There are recreational bettors who may just have an interest in whatever topic is up for debate, as well as professional bettors and betting syndicates whose livelihoods are at stake. There are also companies looking to hedge risk if they may be affected by candidates' proposed policies. With <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1723813625985">$606.5 million</a> riding on the election outcome on Polymarket alone, participants watch the news closely, Crane said. Even if they aren't based in the US, they are just as clued into election updates since their money is on the line.He likens it to sports betting: "I don't need to be a professional football player to know how to understand what's going to happen in a football game. And in fact, I could be better at it than players in the game from a betting or informational perspective," he said.<h2 id="fb2c38a6-7896-42bc-9923-760bf527f3ee">Higher participation could boost accuracy</h2>Crane says that prediction markets could become even more accurate— and avoid any potential risk of manipulation by political groups —if they are fully legalized in the US.The most popular prediction markets are largely unavailable to US participants. US-based users can't bet on Polymarket, and Betfair, one of the longest-running events markets, is only available in some US states.PredictIt, a project founded by researchers in New Zealand, has operated in the US under a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission since 2014, but limits American bettors to up to $850 in wagers, and only 5,000 betters can participate in each market.PredictIt is facing headwinds from the CFTC, which is looking to outlaw all election betting. If passed, Americans wouldn't be legally allowed to participate in any prediction markets, though some may try using VPNs to bypass regulations, which likely occurs now.Crane also said more participation would make manipulation less likely.While there's no hard evidence, he guesses that political bets may be especially prone to attempts at manipulation or influence. "Everything kind of feeds off of everything else, and by trying to limit one aspect of it, or trying to police one aspect of it, it can often ruin the entire market function," Crane said."I think that no limitations is actually the way to go if we want to have better, cleaner, more accurate markets."

Why prediction markets can be more accurate than polls at predicting election results

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.</li><li>It follows a 50-basis-point rate cut in September — the first cut in four years.</li></ul>The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-election-biggest-moments-photos-2024-10">election</a> isn't the only important event facing Americans this week.On Thursday, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next decision on interest rates, and it's likely to be another cut. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch</a>, which forecasts interest rate changes based on market predictions, estimated an all-but-certain 25 basis point cut as of Friday afternoon.The Fed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">cut interest rates by 50 basis points</a> in September — the first cut in four years and one twice the size of the central bank's typical 25-point increments — following aggressive inflation fighting as the country recovered from the pandemic.Fed chair Jerome Powell said during remarks at a Nashville conference in late September that "if the economy performs as expected," it would mean two more 25-basis-point cuts this year. As the November and December meetings were the only two remaining in 2024 at the time of those remarks, that would mean standard-size cuts at both."Overall, the economy is in solid shape," Powell said. "We intend to use our tools to keep it there."There have been several data releases since the last rate cut that suggest the economy is in good shape. September's jobs report showed unemployment fell that month. Recent price index data shows headline inflation has slowed. Real <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-economy-2024-10">gross domestic product</a> rose at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, similar to the 3% growth in the second quarter.The last major data release before the meeting held some bad news, but with a catch. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/october-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-11">October's jobs report</a> published this past Friday, at first glance, showed a big slowdown. The economy added just 12,000 jobs over the month, far below the forecast of 106,000. However, the data was heavily affected by thousands of workers on strike at Boeing and other companies, as well as Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which likely drove that headline figure artificially down and did not reflect a slowing but still strong underlying labor market.In October, 512,000 people in nonfarm industries didn't work because of bad weather, around eight times the previous 20-year October average of 63,000. The unemployment rate — for which BLS said data collection was less affected by the hurricanes — was unchanged from September's 4.1%.Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, told Business Insider that October's jobs report "validates the recent rate cut we saw from the Federal Reserve and probably keeps them on their rough timeline with continuing to offer cuts to keep the labor market strong."Meanwhile, inflation is near the Fed's target rate of 2%. The personal consumption expenditures price index, which is closely watched by the central bank, increased 2.1% in September from September 2023, a cooldown from the previous 2.3%. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at 2.7% for the third consecutive month. The year-over-year rise in the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">consumer price index</a> has also slowed down.A cooling job market and slowing price growth gives the Fed "further confidence in their ability to cut rates without reigniting inflation," Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, told BI.It will take some time for Americans to feel the impact of September's rate cut, along with any upcoming ones, because of lags in industries like housing, cars, and credit cards."Borrowers should understand that 'falling interest rates' are not the same as 'low interest rates,'" Greg McBride, Bankrate's chief financial analyst, said in a commentary. "Quite the opposite, as interest rates are high and will only decline to 'not as high' as 2024 comes to a close and we move into 2025."Powell has maintained that he will make decisions solely based on data. Despite the upcoming election this week, he has repeatedly said politics remain separate from the central bank."Our job is to support the economy on behalf of the American people, and if we get it right, this will benefit the American people significantly," Powell <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cut-trump-fed-powell-reaction-independence-history-2024-9">said</a> during a September press conference. "It's something we all take very, very seriously. We don't put up any other filters. I think if you start doing that, I don't know where you stop," he added.What are your financial plans if the Fed makes another rate cut? Email these reporters at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:asheffey@businessinsider.com">asheffey@businessinsider.com</a> and <a target="_blank" href="mailto:mhoff@businessinsider.com">mhoff@businessinsider.com</a>.

You Searched For "one week rainfall prediction" and got 10 results

Polymarket predicted Trump's win. Now comes the hard part.

Amanda Hoover

The Indian government is taking steps to control rainfall and weather within five years — is it too risky of a move?

Ankush Banerjee

What to know about the potential $30 million whale moving betting markets toward Trump

Matthew Fox

Right now, the Sun is far more active than predicted - and small satellites are paying the price

PTI

Heavy rains to lash across the country between Oct 12-16, here's how you can insure your home from rain's fury

Ira Alok Puranik

Betting on the election is the hottest new trend. But can prediction markets keep the momentum going?

Dan DeFrancesco

A pro-Trump European leader predicts he will abandon Ukraine: 'The Americans will quit this war'

Thibault Spirlet

Wayanad landslides linked to 10% heavier rainfall due to climate change: Study

PTI

Why prediction markets can be more accurate than polls at predicting election results

Kelly Cloonan

Americans are probably getting another interest rate cut this week — just days after the election

Ayelet Sheffey,Madison Hoff

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