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<ul class="summary-list"><li>I attended attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. </li><li>I had more than 20 conversations about AI over the span of four days.</li></ul>The annual <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/davos-switzerland-world-economic-forum-spectacular-winter-scenery-alps-2024-1">World Economic Forum</a> just wrapped up in Davos, Switzerland, and talk of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/generative-ai-future-will-not-be-free-2024-1">artificial intelligence</a> was just about everywhere.The annual event brings together world leaders, billionaire founders, CEOs, academics, and nonprofit types to discuss the biggest topics of the day. The official WEF theme this year was rebuilding trust. And while there was plenty of discussion around changes to the global order, increasing geopolitical risk, and it being a huge election year, this was unquestionably the first <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/everyone-talking-about-ai-plenty-clearly-dont-understand-davos-wef-2024-1">Davos</a> of a new AI era. Tech companies dominated the Davos Promenade, with AWS, C3.ai, Infosys, IBM, Builder.ai, Cisco, Qualcomm, Salesforce, and more paying for prominent spaces on the main street. OpenAI CEO <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/openai-ceo-sam-altman-unveils-vision-for-ais-impact-on-economy-and-society-at-wef-davos/articleshow/106978990.cms">Sam Altman</a> spoke at the event.<div type="image" title="Tata AI poster at Davos" height="1152" width="1536" msid="106999877" hostid="261"></div>I had more than 20 conversations about AI over the span of four days. Here are my takeaways:<h2>Copilots everywhere</h2><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackrock-larry-fink-succession-boys-club-weidman-goldstein-2024-1">BlackRock</a> COO Rob Goldstein said the investing giant is rolling out AI copilots to staff, anticipating that AI will be able to produce first drafts of content such as meeting docs or primers. Jason Girzadas, the CEO of Deloitte US, said he'd just gotten trained on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-copilot-everyday-ai-companion-paid-subscription-2024-1">Microsoft 365</a> Copilot. And the consulting firm Oliver Wyman Group created a generative-AI tool called LenAI that some users said saved them eight hours a week.<h2>Tasks versus jobs</h2>Amid lots of concern about how AI will impact the workforce (scroll down for more on that), several of those I spoke to drew a distinction between tasks, which have a narrowly defined process and outcome, and jobs, which are a collection of tasks. AI won't generally replace jobs, these people said, but it will absolutely automate tasks. Take someone who works in recruitment. Maybe their job involves paperwork, identifying and meeting with candidates, and providing strategic counsel to employers and prospective employees. The paperwork can most likely be heavily automated, potentially freeing up that recruiter for more human-to-human interactions. <h2>Big savings</h2>Deb Cupp, the president of Microsoft Americas, said in a panel discussion that the software giant saved $100 million in its customer-service operation by implementing AI. Similarly, Mihir Shukla, the CEO of Automation Anywhere, said the company cut customer-service costs by 40% while seeing improved performance since introducing AI.<h2>Workforce concerns </h2>Of course, whenever there's talk of cost savings and increased productivity, there's understandable concern that this is code for job losses. "There is an equal measure of excitement and wanting to engage with it and nervousness about what it's going to do for them and their jobs," Tanuj Kapilashrami, the chief human resources officer at Standard Chartered, said of employees and AI on one panel.A recent survey found that 51% of global executives, 50% of global CEOs, and 52% of US CEOs said <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/will-ai-replace-jobs-generative-artificial-intelligence-tools-training-ceos-2024-1">job replacement</a> could be one of the effects of adopting AI in their businesses.Ana Kreacic, the chief knowledge officer at Oliver Wyman, said that in some cases, productivity was actually declining because workers were paralyzed by their fear of the technology. <h2>Reskilling</h2>That means it will be crucial to find ways to retrain workers for the human tasks that are still necessary in the AI era. At Automation Anywhere, which, as its name suggests, works on automating work, the customer-service team shrank when AI was implemented. But some of those customer-service agents found new roles at the company, either in customer success or in technical roles, based on their transferable skills. Shukla said the business world had defined roles increasingly narrowly as companies looked to industrialize their operations and scale. In the age of AI, the workforce will be more fluid, he said.Becky Frankiewicz, the chief commercial officer at ManpowerGroup, echoed this, saying the age of the static job is over, and employees will have to continually upskill and reskill in the future. This means employers should look for potential hires who are adaptable and have the ability to learn quickly rather than focus on specific skills that could soon be redundant.<h2>From small to scale</h2>If 2023 was the year of the pilot study, then 2024 will be the year of operationalizing AI, Lareina Yee, a senior partner at McKinsey, told me. Others I spoke to agreed: Many businesses have small-scale AI experiments running, often with promising results so far. The challenge is in taking that pilot and specific-use case and scaling it.<h2>Different models</h2>While "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-create-ai-materials-resources-guide-2023-9">LLM</a>" (large language model) might have been up there with WEF as the acronym of Davos 2024, many of those I spoke to stressed the difficulties with multipurpose models trained on giant datasets like OpenAI's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-gpt4-ai-model-got-lazier-dumber-chatgpt-2023-7">GPT-4</a>.In many cases, the most effective AI tools, particularly for corporate use, are those that have narrowly defined purposes and have been trained or fine-tuned on exclusive, bespoke datasets. For example, McKinsey built an AI tool that's trained on the consulting firm's rich archive of PowerPoint presentations, white papers, and Excel spreadsheets and helps consultants get up to speed on specific topics more quickly."There will be different classes of models for different contexts," said Satish H.C., an EVP and cohead of delivery at Infosys.<h2>Cost</h2>Then there's the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-ai-flex-meta-nvidia-gpus-2024-1">cost</a> involved. These AI projects are expensive, and not every company has the financial or human capital to pursue an ambitious AI strategy. Plus, not every AI project will generate a positive return on investment, especially when factoring in not just the cost of the tech itself but the costs of changing workflows and retraining staff.<h2>Augmentation … for now </h2>There are always a few buzzwords that emerge at every Davos, and augmentation was one of those this time around. The idea is simple: Rather than replacing humans, AI will superpower them, taking on some of the most boring and repetitive tasks and freeing them up for higher-level work. "As machines get better at being machines, humans can get better at being humans," said Kapilashram from Standard Chartered.That certainly seems to be supported by the research so far. But some questioned how long that could last. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-deepmind-ai-could-run-businesses-in-five-years-2024-1">Mustafa Suleyman</a>, the cofounder of the AI pioneer DeepMind who now runs the startup Inflection AI, predicted that AI will be so business savvy by 2030 that it may be capable of acting like an entrepreneur, mini project manager, or inventor by manufacturing, marketing, and selling products for profit."We are going to have not just those capabilities, but those capabilities widely available for very cheap," he said. "I think that completely changes the economy."At a panel where Kapilashram was speaking, Azeem Azhar, who writes the Exponential View newsletter, noted that when AI-powered game engines emerged, the hybrid of human players plus AI outperformed for about eight years. Now, though, the AI game player wins out.Dan Vahdat, the founder and CEO of Huma Therapeutics, said that while we might think of empathy as a distinctly human characteristic, <a target="_blank" href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/article-abstract/2804309">research</a> published last year showed that patients found AI chatbots to be more empathetic in their communication than medical professionals. <h2>A few final words</h2>The computer scientist Roy <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-stocks-enter-correction-territory-chart-analysis-2023-8">Amara</a> is often credited with first saying that we overestimate the impact of a technology in the short term and underestimate its impact in the long term. AI will likely be no different.

What the global elite are saying about AI behind closed doors

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Insider's Matt Turner and Cadie Thompson share their biggest takeaways from the World Economic Forum.</li><li>Several of the executives they spoke with said the economic picture had lightened in recent weeks.</li></ul>Davos was back.More than 1,500 business leaders descended on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/world-economic-forum-davos-economy-finance-outlook-gloomy-recession-wef-2023-1?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Insider%20Today%2C%20Jan%2018%2C%202023">Davos in the Swiss Alps</a> last week for the World Economic Forum's annual meeting. We were there to take it all in. Davos always gets a lot of attention and criticism. One banner hanging from a balcony above the main congress center last week read: "Wow this is what corruption looks like."But from a reporting perspective, Davos is an incredible opportunity to meet with executives and government officials from around the world and across industries in a very short space of time.We had 50 meetings, plus breakfasts, lunches, dinners, panels, and parties. It was intense and stimulating. One of the most oft-asked questions there is: What are the themes you're picking up on? With that in mind, we put our notes together to define four themes that came up over and over. These don't capture everything, of course, but they should give you insight into what's on the minds of the business elite. <h2>There's going to be a recession. It's no big deal. </h2>Several of the executives we spoke with, from places like New York, Shanghai, Munich, London, and Zurich, said the economic picture had lightened in recent weeks.In particular, some pointed to China's reopening as a positive development for the global economy. Kweilin Ellingrud, a senior partner at McKinsey in Shanghai, told Insider the full effects of this were likely to kick in during the second quarter, with a surge in spending around travel, luxury goods, and dining. That may benefit Western brands, even as local companies pick up market share.There were also positive signals for the US-China relationship, with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He taking the stage with a speech emphasizing "strengthening international cooperation."Ellingrud said there was an increased understanding that there would be US-China competition in some places and cooperation in others. Caroline Cox, the chief legal, governance, and external-affairs officer at BHP, the world's largest mining company, said she, too, sensed a more-constructive tone from China. In the US, meanwhile, there are signs that inflation is slowing, even as the job market shows continued strength. US jobless claims came in at 190,000 — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-mass-layoffs-not-happening-yet-2023-1">fewer than expected</a> — during the week of the meeting. And as one major bank CEO noted, that's before any real spending from the Inflation Reduction Act or Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act has kicked in. And Russia's invasion of Ukraine has driven a boom in defense manufacturing, with firms replacing weaponry that's been shipped to Ukraine."There's a lot more optimism now, particularly in the labor market," Becky Frankiewicz, ManpowerGroup's president of North America, said. "So you saw the eurozone unemployment reached a historical low; the US labor market is on a 50-year low for unemployment. And so the labor markets are defying the odds of economic principles." Lastly, a warmer-than-expected winter in Europe has taken some of the pressure off energy supplies there.To be sure, what these executives were largely describing is a more-positive (or less-negative) assortment of likely outcomes for the global economy, rather than a fundamental shift. Most still expect a global recession that's more keenly felt in Europe. "My personal view is: I think that if we have a recession in the US, there's a really good chance that could be very short and shallow," Paul Knopp, the CEO of KPMG, said. "If there is one, the global picture is more complicated."Still, it's a subtle shift in tone after months of doom and gloom. Jörg Ambrosius, the chief commercial officer at the investment giant State Street, called it "some light at the end of the tunnel."<h2>AI will change everything</h2>You couldn't get far into any discussion at Davos without the topic of artificial intelligence and ChatGPT, in particular, coming up."I have never seen this much excitement about anything in my life," Omar bin Sultan al-Olama, the United Arab Emirates' minister of state for AI, digital economy, and remote-work applications, told Insider. Mihir Shukla, the CEO and a cofounder of Automation Anywhere, likened ChatGPT to how self-driving cars captured people's imagination. And Coursera's CEO, Jeff Maggioncalda, described <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-game-changer-coursera-ceo-plans-integration-coursework-2023-1">ChatGPT as a mind-blowing</a> "game changer."While Microsoft basked in the glow of ChatGPT's hype, some of its rivals were left gritting their teeth and warning of the risks. Alphabet, which has long been a leader in AI, has found itself on the back foot, for example. The T in ChatGPT stands for transformer, an architecture introduced in a 2017 research paper from Google. The week of Davos, Alphabet <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-fears-ai-running-wild-but-it-is-too-late-2023-1">published an explainer on its approach</a> to AI signed by execs including CEO Sundar Pichai. "We understand that AI, as a still-emerging technology, poses various and evolving complexities and risks," the post said. The timing of the paper sure didn't seem coincidental.It wasn't just tech giants warning of the risks, with executives discussing everything from mass-produced misinformation to significant impacts on the labor market. One exec said they'd heard a CEO at Davos say ChatGPT would replace a huge swath of his customer-service workforce within a few years, for example. Shelley Stewart III, a senior partner at McKinsey, said there would be a much-greater need for occupational switching and retraining as some jobs changed or were eliminated by the advent of AI."With every technology, there is good and then there's bad," Rima Qureshi, Verizon's chief strategy officer, told Insider. "I'm a firm believer that in the long run, the good wins out over the bad, but we have to be aware that there are pitfalls with every technology."<h2>For sustainability, a question of how</h2>The climate crisis, sustainability, and the energy transition were <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ways-pay-climate-crisis-davos-2023-1">front of mind</a> for many in Davos.But according to Abby Klanecky, the chief marketing and client-services officer at the management consultant Kearney, many companies are still looking for a place to start. "We get the what and the why," she said, describing conversations with clients around sustainability. "But give us a practical guide for how to do this."Put another way, "the anxiety is there, but knowing how to act is not," John Granger, the CEO of IBM Consulting, said.The pressure is on. Many companies have set net-zero goals without necessarily having a concrete plan for how to achieve them, executives who spoke with Insider said. John Waldron, the chief commercial officer at Honeywell, said there would likely be increased governance around those net-zero goals, which would force companies to either comply or roll back their targets. And significant changes in operations are required for many, emphasizing the need to start acting sooner rather than later."Companies can't carbon-offset their way to net zero," Waldron said. Several of those who spoke with Insider highlighted the need for much-greater collaboration among companies — and a willingness to experiment. Granger called for "radical collaboration" across industry verticals, a point echoed by Klanecky."None of the problems we're talking about can be solved by one company," she said. And Ambrosius from State Street said there's a need to act now, with the knowledge that some experiments may fail. "We're going to give it a hard try, and if eight out of 10 things fail, that is a better outcome than not doing anything," he said. "Waiting is no option anymore."BHP's Cox said that many of the technologies required for the energy transition hadn't arrived yet. She pointed to BHP's work testing different fuels in shipping, from biofuels to liquified natural gas, as evidence of the need for experimentation. One dark cloud for many: the complexity of getting projects approved. Several mentioned US Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin's <a href="https://www.energy.senate.gov/2022/9/manchin-releases-comprehensive-permitting-reform-text-to-be-included-in-continuing-resolution" target="_blank" rel="noopener">permitting-reform efforts</a>, which have hit a wall in the Senate, as evidence of what's required.<h2>Your boss wants you back at work. Why?</h2>Wanting to bring everyone back to the office is akin to "raging against the dying of the light of the old model."That's according to Nick Studer, the chief executive of the management consultant Oliver Wyman. He said he found the discussion around the return to the office an "incredibly sterile debate."First, there needs to be a redesign of the work that is done in the office, and then there needs to be a redesign of the office itself, he said."We want to be together when there is a task that requires us to be together," he added. "Not every task does."Real-estate leaders, meanwhile, noted that many office buildings <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/obsolete-office-buildings-convert-or-die-ceos-davos-2023-1">would become obsolete</a>. Some could be transformed into residential dwellings, but others may need to be torn down."You will have a lot of obsolete buildings at the end of the day which are not suitable to be upgraded, or it is financially not viable," Christian Ulbrich, the CEO of JLL, said. "So we have to repurpose those buildings in some form or fashion, or they will be empty and will be taken down at some point in time."

We spoke with more than 50 CEOs, billionaires, execs, and government officials in Davos. Here are our 4 biggest takeaways.

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/svensson/16280290950/in/photolist-qNCKiy-bQ4QRt-69rBiA-5Hqsty-74y1Xw-4rB1NU-7zsEK9-eozmu-5So9XZ-4iXzbx-8gtBMT-4rv8Zp-bvqgW1-ekMShm-a8c1P3-98K9Be-o6rg-3uUgX-pvNYRr-bpc2kP-4urQ3K-4ECS2g-6Vi7yQ-5mMw23-92rLxD-8XnUfk-szQAb-6gYPzE-bej31c-fnz3A-ETxTb-avkaMz-SB8LC-4kKK2r-6UFtFq-qUvb-5EhUFH-i2swr-i2sBe-5raEpY-8TL8b1-dHEMmA-A4cie-4ZRUkX-aC6Wtc-6vWtxh-nU1Pfn-srjkGs-7WL2J9-6Pd2Nq">Flickr/Alexander Svensson</a>Danger!</div></div></div>The World Economic Forum is calling for governments, established finance players, and fintech (financial technology) startups to band together and draw up more rules and regulations to stop the wave of new fintech players becoming a systematic risk to economies.In a report co-authored by consultancy Oliver Wyman, the Davos organiser says: "As legacy business models and long-held value propositions in financial services are reshaped by these new ideas, key actors in the system must work to ensure economic growth does not come at the expense of systemic stability."The report, <a href="http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FS_RoleFinancialServicesSociety_Stability_Tech_Recommendations_2016.pdf">titled "Understanding the impact of technology-enabled innovation on financial stability"</a>, says that: "The financial sector is at an inflection point", with nimble fintech startups "disintermediating" the jobs traditionally done by big banks.In other words, finance is moving from being a bunch of one-stop-shops where you can get your mortgage but also trade shares and take a pension, to a bunch of specialised players that can focus on one area thanks to the lower overheads allowed by technology.The report says:Use of technology in finance is not new, nor are many of the products and services that are offered by new entrants to the sector. Rather, it is the novel application of technology and its speed of evolution that make the current wave of innovation unlike any we have seen before in financial services.WEF and Oliver Wyman identify six big advantages to fintech: increased access to financial services through things like your smartphone, lower cost, improved risk management, diversification of risk, increased collaboration, and increased competition.But the report warns that "technology-enabled innovations bring a new set of risks to the financial system, both conduct and prudential, and has implications for human capital (e.g. increased automation leading to fewer employees)."Here are the six key risks WEF and Oliver Wyman identify:<ol><li>Alternative lending: The report warns that consumers could face big losses from things like peer-to-peer lenders, which lets people lend their money directly to businesses and people. "Even if alternative sources of credit are monitored appropriately, many actually shift risk to the end consumer - which has the potential for sizeable losses to be directly incurred by average investors who may not understand the product or its associated risks."</li><li>Market electronification: The report says that high-frequency trading, dark pools, and the use of alternative trading platforms "remains an area of intense scrutiny."</li><li>Data security: "As businesses increase their reliance on technology and continue to amass larger stores of data, it becomes increasingly important (and difficult) to ensure resilient systems are in place to safeguard information."</li><li>Misconduct: "While technology-enabled innovation has the potential to support oversight functions in monitoring employee activities, it may simultaneously act as an amplifier of illicit actions that have evaded detection (e.g. predatory algorithmic trading activity). Moreover, heightened shareholder expectations and intense competition may incent the mainstreaming of new technology-enabled innovations before the requisite control environment for risk and compliance is in place."</li><li>Payment effectiveness: New methods of sending money, such as using the rails of bitcoin or other distributed ledger technology, "may actually impact effectiveness of monetary policy and transmission mechanisms."</li><li>Regulatory arbitrage: "In many instances, the pathway to compliance when deploying a new type of innovation is unclear. Furthermore, the regulatory remit is often not consistently defined across countries and is based on a company's legal entity designation vs the financial activities that it engages in. This rigid definition of the regulatory remit allows for some businesses to fall through the supervisory cracks, reduces portability of business models and stifles innovation."</li></ol>Adair Turner, the former Chairman of the Financial Services Authority, <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/ex-fsa-chief-adair-turner-fintech-p2p-lending-interest-rates-2016-2">issued a similar warning to the WEF's on peer-to-peer lending, saying in February</a>: "The losses which will emerge from peer-to-peer lending over the next five to 10 years will make the bankers look like lending geniuses."However Samir Desai, CEO of peer-to-peer small business lender Funding Circle, has defended the industry, <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/funding-circle-ceo-samir-desai-future-of-peer-to-peer-lending-lord-turner-2016-3">telling the AltFi Europe conference:</a> "I don't agree with some of the credit assessment stuff and I think many platforms have invited Lord Turner in to view our processes, reassure him, because I think it is important that we tackle this criticism head-on rather than just shout him down."The WEF and Oliver Wyman have four key recommendations for stopping fintech in all its guises transforming into a systematic risk. They are: a debate on the ethical use of data; setting up a global public-private forum for discussion of technological innovation in finance; international standards for monitoring fintech startups; and setting up a private sector standards body that enforces good conduct at new players in the market.<a href="http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FS_RoleFinancialServicesSociety_Stability_Tech_Recommendations_2016.pdf">You can read the full WEF and Oliver Wyman report here.</a> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/game-of-thrones-economics-westeros-iron-throne-lannisters-2016-4">This hidden subplot of 'Game of Thrones' spells out the real trouble for the Lannisters</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="tvNncydDrkw0Adz4yS0Vsg8DPK1cte-i" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

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What the global elite are saying about AI behind closed doors

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We spoke with more than 50 CEOs, billionaires, execs, and government officials in Davos. Here are our 4 biggest takeaways.

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