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<ul><li><keyword id="6365707" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="ubs">UBS</keyword>'s <keyword id="3648399" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="mark-haefele">Mark Haefele</keyword> said in a Friday note that while <keyword id="2420795" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="cryptocurrencies">cryptocurrencies</keyword> and <keyword id="4675570" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="SPACs">SPACs</keyword> show signs of "irrational exuberance," investors shouldn't worry that the whole stock market is in a bubble. </li><li>Within the IPO and <keyword id="10080892" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="spac-market">SPAC market</keyword> and cryptocurrencies, prices are discounting future rapid price appreciation, a factor that's typically present during market bubbles, said Haefele.</li><li>But large parts of the stock market are not expensively valued by historical comparison, the chief investment officer of global wealth management said. </li><li><a href="https://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/10-things-opening-bell?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestedium=ingest">Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell</a>. </li></ul>While many parts of the market are showing signs of "irrational exuberance" that should alarm some investors, UBS's Mark Haefele says there are still some risk assets outside of bubble territory."All of the bubble preconditions are in place," he explained in a Friday note, citing record low financing costs, new participants entering into the market, and a combination of historically low interest rates and high savings rates from government stimulus that's left investors who are searching for returns with no alternative but equities.However, Haefele said that while parts of the market seem speculative, investors shouldn't worry that the whole market is in a bubble."The cryptocurrency <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword> are exhibiting signs of excessive speculation and the IPO/SPAC markets are the hottest in two decades. But these markets do not yet pose a broader systemic risk," the chief investment officer of global wealth management said.Within the IPO and SPAC market, as well as crypto, prices are discounting future rapid price appreciation, a factor that's typically present during market bubbles, said Haefele.Speculation is pushing up prices for bitcoin, especially as major investors raise their long-term price targets for the coin, like Guggenheim's Scott Minerd who sees bitcoin hitting $400,000 in the future.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picks-to-buy-best-profit-growth-reopening-goldman-sachs-2021-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GOLDMAN SACHS: Buy these 25 stocks best-positioned to juice profits in 2021 as stimulus and vaccine progress spur economic growth</a>First-day IPO performance is also the strongest in around two decades. Airbnb <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/airbnb-stock-price-ipo-trading-debut-valuation-past-100-billion-2020-12-1029882956?utm_campaign=browser_notification&amp;utm_source=desktop?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestedium=ingest">leaped 115%</a> on its first day of trading, while DoorDash opened 78% higher than its offer price. SPACs raised more than $70 billion in 2020, more than the entire prior decade combined, he said.But equities as a whole are not in a bubble, said Haefele. For one, he explained that large parts of the market are not expensively valued by historical comparison. Removing Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Netflix, and Google, the <keyword id="123873" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="SP-500">S&amp;P 500</keyword> only rose 6% in 2020. He also said that valuations of indices look reasonable against the backdrop of low interest rates, and used an equity risk premium approach to explain why stocks still look cheap relative to bonds. Against that backdrop, he recommends investors "think beyond the bubbles." "One reason that bubbles can be so deceptive is that there is often a grain of truth behind their narratives. The dotcom bubble, for example, correctly anticipated the impact of the internet," said Haefele. "Many of the narratives linked to today's bubbles may also prove to be correct. Investors may be able to capture some upside but reduce the risk associated with bubbles by identifying the narrative, yet investing in a more diversified way." He reiterated <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-ubs-sectors-disrupt-technology-next-decade-fintech-2020-11-1029831521">his suggestion to investors to buy emerging technology investment themes</a> like 5G, fintech, greentech, and healthtech, while staying diversified. He also said UBS is bullish on emerging market stocks.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-biggest-bubble-ever-bearish-indicator-sven-henrich-2021-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Extremes are becoming ever more extreme': A Wall Street strategist who sounded the alarm before last year's 35% crash showcases the evidence that a similar meltdown is looming</a>

Cryptocurrencies and SPACs show signs of 'irrational exuberance,' but the stock market is not in a bubble, says UBS

<ul><li>The <keyword id="123873" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="SP-500">S&amp;P 500</keyword> could rally about 14% to hit 3,900 if President Donald <keyword id="6354862" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="trump">Trump</keyword> wins the November election, according to <keyword id="44660" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="JPMorgan">JPMorgan</keyword>.</li><li>A Trump victory is the "most favorable outcome for equities," a team of analysts led by the chief US equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas said in a note on Friday.</li><li>They said a "Blue Sweep" scenario would be mostly neutral for equities in the short term, because more federal stimulus could be offset by rising corporate taxes.</li><li>JPMorgan said it expected energy, financials, and healthcare to see the biggest moves, as both Joe Biden and Trump mentioned the sectors specifically on their campaign trails.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500_500">S&amp;P 500</a> could rise 14%, to 3,900, if President Donald Trump retains his position in the White House, JPMorgan analysts said on Friday.A Trump victory could push the mega-cap index 300 points higher than the firm's base-case target for year-end, the analysts said. The S&amp;P 500 stood at about 3,400 at Monday's close.<keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets">Markets</keyword> have been <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/markets-outlook-biden-election-victory-democratic-senate-fiscal-stimulus-jpmorgan-2020-10-1029694606#">preparing for a Democratic sweep and frontloaded stimulus</a> to boost the economic recovery. But JPMorgan analysts led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, the chief US equity strategist, said they expected "an 'orderly' Trump victory as the most favorable outcome for equities."On the other hand, "a 'Blue Sweep' scenario is expected to be mostly neutral in the short term, as it would likely be accompanied by some immediate positive catalysts (i.e. larger fiscal stimulus / infrastructure) but also negative catalysts (i.e. rising corporate taxes)," the team wrote.JPMorgan said that after analyzing Twitter sentiment and comparing it with traditional polling data, it found more evidence that the race was tightening, while traders seemed to be minimizing the risk of a contested election.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picks-to-buy-companies-beat-q3-earnings-expectations-bofa-2020-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">BANK OF AMERICA: Buy these 11 underowned stocks ahead of their earnings reports because they're the most likely candidates to beat expectations in the weeks ahead</a>The bank said it expected the energy, financials, and healthcare sectors to see the biggest price swings, as both Trump and Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, referred to them on their campaign trails.JPMorgan has created baskets of <keyword id="6354298" type="DEFINITION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Stocks">stocks</keyword> that bet on winners from either Democratic or Republican victories in November. A glance at the top components of both baskets showed that the Biden basket, including alternative-energy and green-tech stocks, was outperforming the Trump basket, with traditional energy and fossil-fuel companies, by 66%.<div type="image" title="Screenshot 2020 10 27 at 11.48.05" height="942" width="1064" msid="78893237" hostid="261"></div>"Given the large divergence between these two baskets (i.e. similar to momentum/value), coupled with our expectation that COVID-19 headline risk likely declines post-election, we see an increasingly compelling case for Value in the coming period," the analysts said.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chamath-palihapitiya-shares-5-sectors-shaping-long-term-investing-plan-2020-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'I'm basically going to be long growth': Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya has hauled in a 997% return since 2011. He details the 5 sectors shaping his long-term investment playbook.</a>

The S&P 500 could jump 14%, to 3,900, if Trump wins the election, JPMorgan says

<ul><li>Jeremy Grantham's early stake in battery producer <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/qs-stock">QuantumScape</a> has surged following the firm's merger with a special-purpose acquisition company, but Grantham still isn't sold on the blank-check IPO trend.</li><li>Grantham invested $12.5 million into the company seven years ago. That stake now stands at roughly $278 million thanks to a <keyword id="1817616" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="SPAC">SPAC</keyword> merger and <keyword id="9411489" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="QuantumScape">QuantumScape</keyword>'s subsequent stock rally.</li><li>The position is "by accident the single biggest investment I have ever made," Grantham told the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/faedd2a1-2008-4f1e-9198-7694fba791b0">Financial Times</a>.</li><li>Still, the investor sees SPACs as a "reprehensible instrument, and very very speculative by definition," largely due to their lack of listing requirements and overall regulation.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestutm_source=msn.com&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_content=msn-slideshow&amp;utm_campaign=bodyurl?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestts&amp;utm_medium=ingest">Visit the Business Insider homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>The very kind of dealmaking that Jeremy Grantham previously deemed "reprehensible" netted the famous investor a $265 million profit.Grantham, who founded investment management firm GMO and serves as its long-term investment strategist, invested $12.5 million in battery producer <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/qs-stock">QuantumScape</a> seven years ago as one of several stakes in early green-tech companies, according to the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/faedd2a1-2008-4f1e-9198-7694fba791b0">Financial Times</a>.The position swelled after Kensington Capital Partners announced plans to merge QuantumScape with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, in September.The deal valued QuantumScape at $3.3 billion, and shares traded at more than four times their listing price when the acquisition was completed on November 30. The company's stock rallied another 31% on Tuesday alone, valuing Grantham's stake at roughly $278 million.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-wall-street-investors-of-2020-stock-picks-2021-outlook-2020-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">We spoke with Wall Street's 9 best-performing fund managers of 2020 to learn how they crushed the chaotic market - and compile the biggest bets they're making for 2021</a>Yet the legendary investor isn't convinced Wall Street's SPAC frenzy will last. The QuantumScape position is "by accident the single biggest investment I have ever made," Grantham told the FT, partially fueled by the so-called blank-check companies' lack of regulation."It gets around the idea of listing requirements, so it is not a useful tool for a lot of successful companies. But I think it is a reprehensible instrument, and very very speculative by definition," he added.Grantham's profit stands to climb even higher. QuantumScape soared as much as 37% in early Wednesday trading. Should the rally hold into the market close, it would add another $100 million to his total gains. SPAC firms raise capital through an initial public offering with the intention of using the cash to acquire a firm and take the merged entity public. The last two years have seen market favorites including Virgin Galactic, DraftKings, and Nikola go public through such deals.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-hedge-fund-managers-trades-bets-2020-emmet-peppers-2020-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Emmet Peppers grew his accounts from $30,000 in 2010 to over $70 million this year. The newly minted hedge fund manager breaks down how he spotted early opportunities in Tesla, Facebook, and the COVID-19 market crash - and shared one IPO on his radar.</a>Blank-check IPOs exploded in 2020 as firms looked to take advantage of a surge in participation from retail investors and hopes for an economic recovery. More than $74 billion has been raised across 218 SPAC debuts in 2020, according to data from <a href="https://spacinsider.com/stats/">SPACInsider.com</a>. That compares to just $13.6 billion raised across 59 deals in 2019.Wall Street's obsession with the vehicles could be a sign of unsustainable market optimism, Grantham told the FT, rivaling the overwhelming bullishness seen during the 1920s and the late-1990s tech bubble.Tesla's meteoric rise through the year has made electric-vehicle SPACs - and any SPAC related to the EV market - particularly popular. QuantumScape lands in that basket. The firm produces solid-state batteries used in electric cars and has backing from industry giant Volkswagen.Now read more <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword> coverage from Markets Insider and Business Insider:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-cheap-high-quality-lgbt-inclusive-credit-suisse-2020-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse maintains an index of LGBT-inclusive firms that's crushed its global benchmark since 2010. Here are the top 28 stocks the firm says to buy now from the basket.</a><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/doordash-ipo-stock-offering-price-filing-dash-trading-debut-nyse-2020-12-1029875380">DoorDash prices IPO at $102 per share, will raise $3.4 billion</a><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-stretched-investor-positioning-sp500-strategy-goldman-sachs-2020-12-1029874597">Stocks could stumble in early 2021 as investor sentiment surges past market fundamentals, Goldman Sachs says</a>

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham made an accidental $265 million profit on a SPAC deal after previously criticizing blank-check companies

Welcome to <keyword id="933977" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="power-line">Power Line</keyword>, a weekly <keyword id="6357014" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="energy">energy</keyword> newsletter brought to you by Business Insider.Here's what you need to know:<ul><li>Want to get this newsletter in your inbox every Friday? <a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/power-line">Sign up here</a>. </li><li>Most of our content is available to BI Prime subscribers. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/prime-discount?r=birefer-bjoneshttps://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/prime-discount?r=birefer-bjones">Click here for 20% off</a>. </li><li>Got feedback or tips? Please email us at <a href="mailto:energy@businessinsider.com">energy@businessinsider.com</a>. </li></ul>We're almost in July, which means I've started planning my 30th birthday. I've thrown out dreams of a densely packed NYC dance floor and replaced them with a day trip to find otters in the rivers of Eastern Iowa. Those are the same, right? We skipped last week because Insider Inc. was closed <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wnet/african-americans-many-rivers-to-cross/history/what-is-juneteenth/">in honor of Juneteenth</a>. Next week, we have an exciting feature coming out — the rising stars of <keyword id="154273" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="clean-energy">clean energy</keyword>. Stay tuned. Now, let's get to it. <h2>Investors are throwing money at clean energy as spending in <keyword id="6359072" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil">oil</keyword> and gas wanes </h2>On Tuesday, <keyword id="18635" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Amazon">Amazon</keyword> announced a new <a href="https://press.aboutamazon.com/news-releases/news-release-details/amazon-announces-2-billion-climate-pledge-fund-invest-companies">$2 billion</a> VC fund dedicated to technologies that reduce the impact of climate change, such as energy storage and electric transportation. <ul><li>"Companies from around the world of all sizes and stages will be considered, from pre-product startups to well-established enterprises," Jeff Bezos, Amazon's founder and CEO, said in a public statement. </li><li>The Seattle-based behemoth — which is worth more than $1.3 trillion in today's market value — didn't specify over what time frame the "initial" $2 billion would be dished out. </li><li>The announcement follows <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/01/26/amazon-employees-plan-mass-defiance-company-communications-policy-support-colleagues/">criticism</a> of the firm's environmental record. </li></ul><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/list-of-clean-energy-startups-bill-gates-is-backing-2020-4">Read more: Batteries, fusion, and hydropower: Meet the 24 clean-energy startups that Bill Gates is backing</a>A broader trend: Amazon's new fund widens a growing stream of money emptying into the clean-energy industry. <ul><li>In February, Jeff Bezos, himself, said he would spend <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/17/technology/jeff-bezos-climate-change-earth-fund.html">$10 billion</a> to address climate change through an initiative called the Bezos Earth Fund. </li><li>In January, Microsoft committed $1 billion to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-5-buzziest-startups-turning-carbon-emissions-into-profit-2020-1">carbon capture and removal technologies.</a></li><li>The investment firm Generate Capital raised <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/generate-capital-raises-1-billion-for-clean-energy-investments-11580824808">$1 billion</a> for clean energy. </li><li>Sequoia Capital hinted it's now investing in climate tech.</li><li>A nonprofit called Prime Coalition recently closed a new <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/50-million-prime-impact-fund-launches-to-invest-in-early-stage-cleantech">$50 million fund</a> that will channel investment into early-stage clean-energy startups</li><li> … to name a few!</li></ul>Oil and gas faces a different reality: New clean-energy investment heavily contrasts what's happening in the oil and gas industry.<ul><li>Global spending on oil exploration and production is poised to fall to $383 billion this year, the lowest level in 15 years, according to a new analysis by Rystad Energy. </li><li>About 125 exploration and production companies have indicated that they're cutting spending, Rystad said. </li><li>The research firm said spending would stay pretty much flat next year. </li><li>Shale is among the oil classes that will be hit the hardest, Rystad says. </li></ul>Flashback: As we <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/outlook-for-private-equity-energy-investments-oil-price-collapse-2020-4">previously reported</a>, private equity investors, who fueled the US shale revolution with $125 billion, are facing a reckoning. <ul><li>Small- and medium-sized PE firms focused on oil and gas will struggle to raise new funds in the future, experts told us.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-shale-oil-industry-vaporized-money-before-energy-markets-collapsed-2020-5">Roughly 80%</a> of the 500 or so PE-backed shale firms in North America will struggle to find buyers, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-shale-oil-industry-vaporized-money-before-energy-markets-collapsed-2020-5">one investor said</a>. Exits are traditionally how PE firms recoup their investment. </li></ul><div type="image" title="FILE PHOTO - The exterior of a Schlumberger Corporation building is pictured in West Houston January 16, 2015. REUTERS/Richard Carson " height="2351" width="3135" msid="76649830" hostid="261"></div><h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-documents-schlumberger-rescinds-job-offers-internships-2020-6">'We have taken the difficult decision to rescind your job offer': Cheap oil evaporates new Schlumberger jobs </a></h2>Price check: US crude oil opened this morning just under $40 a barrel. That's double where it was at the start of May, but it's still down more than 35% since the start of the year. Oilfield services (OFS) companies — which provide drilling tech and services — are among the companies most exposed to low oil prices. <ul><li>There are just 189 active drill rigs across the US, down 72% since March, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-24/shale-oil-recovery-is-seen-taking-years-after-decade-of-excess">Bloomberg reported</a>. </li><li>Almost 2 million barrels of oil per day have been taken out of production in that same period. The US was producing a record 13 million barrels per day in February. </li></ul>Schlumberger reacts: Schlumberger is the largest OFS company in the world, with a market value of more than $24 billion, but that doesn't mean it's immune to cheap oil. Since the pandemic took root, the firm <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-documents-schlumberger-rescinds-job-offers-internships-2020-6">has laid off workers, cut pay, and rescinded job and internship offers</a>. <ul><li>Scores of fresh college graduates had their job offers rescinded including international students who are now racing to find new positions that will allow them to stay in the country.</li><li>"Schlumberger's activity and outlook has been negatively impacted by two unforeseen events: decline in <keyword id="51471" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Oil-price">oil price</keyword> and the impact of COVID-19," the company wrote in a letter to a student whose offer was revoked. "Unfortunately, we have taken the difficult decision to rescind your job offer."</li><li>Schlumberger has laid off about 2,000 people this year, <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Schlumberger-restructuring-plan-comes-with-1-4-15344107.php">according to the Houston Chronicle</a>.</li><li>In April, the firm also implemented two furlough programs for its North American staff and cut pay for some workers, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/schlumberger-furloughed-staff-cut-wages-oil-price-2020-5">according to letters</a> we obtained.</li></ul>In other news: "A woman who worked as [a] field engineer at Schlumberger has sued the oil-field services company for $100 million, alleging pervasive sexual harassment and a workplace culture that accepted it," the <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Schlumberger-sued-for-100M-in-sex-discrimination-15361525.php">Houston Chronicle reports</a>. Has your career in the energy industry been impacted by the oil price downturn? Please reach out to me at <a href="mailto:bjones@businessinsider.com">bjones@businessinsider.com</a>. <h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-list-energy-stocks-to-buy-oil-markets-recover-2020-6">Goldman Sachs: 22 energy stocks worth buying as oil trends up</a></h2>Analysts at Goldman Sachs say oil <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword>, while still down, are entering the next leg of the recovery. That bodes well for a handful of stocks in each segment of the energy industry.<ul><li>The bank favors utilities and expects the sector, as a whole, to perform well over the next year. </li><li>On the flip side, the analysts are more hesitant to invest in companies that refine crude oil into products like fuel. </li><li>The bank says that fuel demand is expected to recover, but it adds that "absolute gasoline demand in the US peaked in 2018." </li></ul><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-list-energy-stocks-to-buy-oil-markets-recover-2020-6">You can see all 22 of the bank's top picks here, across refiners, oil majors, utilities, midstream, and exploration and production. </a><h2>This week's top stories</h2><ul><li>Oil majors: The London-based oil giant BP said it's "writing down as much as $17.5 billion of its assets and might leave some of its oil and gas in the ground because of lower energy prices and weakened demand," the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/bp-takes-17-5-billion-write-down-expects-oil-price-to-stay-low-11592211169">Wall Street Journal reports</a>. </li><li>Racial disparities: "Black renters and homeowners face substantially higher residential energy costs than white residents, and these persistent differences are present almost throughout the income scale," <a href="https://www.axios.com/energy-environment/2020/6/24">Axios reports</a>. </li><li>Solar: Sunrun, the nation's leading rooftop solar installer, is working with utilities to aggregate power from batteries across its customer base in an effort to create virtual power plants, <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/sunrun-will-turn-home-batteries-into-grid-resources-for-two-major-utilities">Greentech Media reports</a>. </li><li>Wind: The CEO of Ørsted, one of the world's largest wind energy companies based in Denmark, is stepping down after eight years leading the company, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-orsted-moves/ceo-of-wind-farm-group-orsted-to-step-down-idUSKBN23M2EH">Reuters reports</a>. </li></ul>That's it! Have a great weekend. - BenjiPs. Here's a lil robin family on my porch that does not give a damn about anti-bird spikes. <div type="image" title="Robin nest Benji Jones" height="2268" width="3024" msid="76649834" hostid="261"></div>

Power Line: $2 billion for clean energy — Schlumberger job offers disappear — 22 top energy stocks

Welcome to <keyword id="933977" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="power-line">Power Line</keyword>, a weekly energy newsletter brought to you by Business Insider.Here's what you need to know:<ul><li>Want to get this newsletter in your inbox every Friday? <a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/power-line">Sign up here</a>. </li><li>Got a tip or feedback about this newsletter? Email <a href="mailto:energy@businessinsider.com">energy@businessinsider.com</a>. </li><li>Don't forget: Sunday is Mother's Day. </li></ul>Happy Friday, folks! I am delighted to announce that earnings season is mostly over — which means nearly all the top energy execs have revealed new details about how their firms are faring. More on that below. Other things that delight me include hand blenders, plucking carrots out of the ground, tempeh if cooked right, and last year. Let's get to it, starting with an update on <keyword id="6359072" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil">oil</keyword>. <div type="image" title="Oil storage tanks" height="3623" width="4831" msid="75634682" hostid="261"></div><h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-timeline-oil-price-recovery-6-stocks-to-buy-2020-5">A timeline for the recovery of oil markets </a></h2>The term "recovery" may still be premature, but at least <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-timeline-oil-price-recovery-6-stocks-to-buy-2020-5">some Wall Street analysts</a> say oil <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword> have already hit rock bottom. (It was probably made of shale.)In a note earlier this week, Goldman Sachs laid out what a three-stage recovery would look like. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-timeline-oil-price-recovery-6-stocks-to-buy-2020-5">Stage 1: Relief.</a> Some volatility, but the price of US crude will reach $25 a barrel in May. It's nearly there already. <ul><li>The inflection into an oil deficit is just weeks away. (Remember, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-top-investor-questions-after-the-oil-price-meltdown-answered-2020-4">we were talking about an epic oversupply just weeks ago</a>.)</li><li>"It now appears likely that the market is passing its test on storage capacity," the analysts wrote.</li></ul><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-timeline-oil-price-recovery-6-stocks-to-buy-2020-5">Stage 2: "Cyclical tightening."</a> The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, will average around $30 in July to September and trend up, the bank said. <ul><li>The price of Brent could reach $60 at the start of next year as reserves are drawn down. </li></ul><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-timeline-oil-price-recovery-6-stocks-to-buy-2020-5">Stage 3: A new market emerges.</a> By the end of next year, the value of oil will be back to where it was before the pandemic took hold. <ul><li>Over the long term there could be "structurally higher" oil prices, the bank said, which would "incentivize a new investment phase in oil supply. </li></ul>Goldman Sachs also said now might be a good time to stock up on energy, erm, stocks. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-timeline-oil-price-recovery-6-stocks-to-buy-2020-5">Here are 6 oil stocks the bank thinks are well-positioned to ride the recovery</a>. <div type="image" title="Halliburton" height="2000" width="2667" msid="75634688" hostid="261"></div><h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-top-oil-companies-are-responding-to-the-price-shock-2020-3">What recovery? Layoffs continue to mount and dozens of bankruptcies loom </a></h2>Let's remember that while the price of oil is up from historic lows last month, it's still down more than half since the start of the year. <ul><li>Most shale companies in the US can't turn a profit if US crude oil is under $40 a barrel. Right now, it's at about $24.</li><li>That means companies will continue to cut. </li></ul>Here's the latest.Layoffs. Oilfield services (OFS) giant <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/halliburton-laid-off-1700-workers-texas-oklahoma-colorado-oil-price-2020-5">Halliburton laid off almost 2,700 workers</a> across three states since April, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/halliburton-laid-off-1700-workers-texas-oklahoma-colorado-oil-price-2020-5">as we reported on Tuesday</a>. <ul><li>The week prior, we reported that the largest OFS company <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/schlumberger-furloughed-staff-cut-wages-oil-price-2020-5">Schlumberger</a> furloughed its North American staff. It also cut wages for some employees, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/schlumberger-furloughed-staff-cut-wages-oil-price-2020-5">using a template that appeared meant for promotions</a>.</li><li>OFS companies are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/schlumberger-furloughed-staff-cut-wages-oil-price-2020-5">hit especially hard during an oil price downturn</a> because they provide drilling services, and the industry is laying down rigs. </li><li>Are you an oil worker who was recently laid off? I'd love to chat with you. Please reach out at <a href="mailto:bjones@businessinsider.com">bjones@businessinsider.com</a>. </li></ul>Bankruptcies. More of them coming. Dozens of oil and gas companies were saddled with debt before the downturn. Now, many of them may have no choice but to file for bankruptcy protection. <ul><li>Who's up next? Fitch Ratings <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/list-oil-companies-at-risk-of-debt-default-bankruptcy-fitch-2020-5">shared a list of 25 energy companies most likely to default</a>. </li><li>California Resources, Unit Corp., and Ultra Petroleum are the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/list-oil-companies-at-risk-of-debt-default-bankruptcy-fitch-2020-5">most likely to file among the companies Fitch is tracking</a>, an analyst at Fitch said. </li></ul>Budget cuts. Most oil giants that reported earnings in the last two weeks <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-top-oil-companies-are-responding-to-the-price-shock-2020-3">announced further budget cuts</a>. <ul><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-top-oil-companies-are-responding-to-the-price-shock-2020-3">ExxonMobil</a>, for example, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-top-oil-companies-are-responding-to-the-price-shock-2020-3">further cut capital spending for the year</a>. Now, it's down a staggering $10 billion. </li></ul><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-top-oil-companies-are-responding-to-the-price-shock-2020-3">We're tracking how 18 top oil giants are responding to the market downturn</a>. <div type="image" title="Redox flow battery" height="2000" width="2667" msid="75634697" hostid="261"></div><h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/form-energy-patent-for-massive-refuelable-batteries-2020-5">New details emerge about a giant 'refuelable' battery that could deliver power for a week straight </a></h2>As it turns out, reading patents is neither fun nor particularly insightful. But sometimes they offer juicy clues, like the one submitted last week by battery startup Form Energy. Run by a Tesla veteran and backed by a Bill Gates-led fund, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/form-energy-battery-startup-disrupting-the-industry-2020-1">Form Energy</a> is among the buzziest and most secretive clean-energy startups.And for years, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/form-energy-battery-startup-disrupting-the-industry-2020-1">it's been working on long-duration storage</a> — batteries that can last for days or weeks that are designed to replace fossil-fuel power plants on the grid. We've been wondering how Form's batteries might work. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/form-energy-patent-for-massive-refuelable-batteries-2020-5">This patent offers some clues</a>. Clue 1: A "refuelable" battery. The company appears to be working on a battery that has <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/form-energy-patent-for-massive-refuelable-batteries-2020-5">some kind of charge-holding material</a> that degrades as power is discharged. <ul><li>The battery can then be refueled by swapping in more of that charge-holding material. </li></ul>Clue 2: No mention of flow batteries. We know Form is working on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/form-energy-patent-for-massive-refuelable-batteries-2020-5">some kind of flow-battery</a>, in which charge is stored in tanks of liquid. But this patent is for something different.<ul><li>One scientist I talked to said the cathode and the anode — which interact to produce charge — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/form-energy-patent-for-massive-refuelable-batteries-2020-5">are likely either both solid</a>, or one is sold and the other is … air? </li><li>Yep, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/form-energy-patent-for-massive-refuelable-batteries-2020-5">"air-breathing" batteries are a thing</a>. </li></ul>Clue 3: Iron or an iron alloy. Three scientists I talked to said <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/form-energy-patent-for-massive-refuelable-batteries-2020-5">it's likely that this battery will use some form of iron or an iron alloy</a>, based on language in the patent that they reviewed. We won't have to wait long for more details. Yesterday, Form announced that it's building a large pilot battery for an energy utility in Minnesota that could last for 150 hours straight, making even Tesla's Powerpack look like a dinky AAA. On the phone this week, the firm's CEO, Mateo Jaramillo, told me that we'll hear more about the battery tech later this year. <h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rooftop-solar-company-sunrun-benefits-from-online-sales-strategy-2020-5">One number Sunrun's CEO shared this week explains why rooftop solar sales will never be the same again</a></h2>The number: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rooftop-solar-company-sunrun-benefits-from-online-sales-strategy-2020-5">$1,000</a>, how much Sunrun expects it can save per customer by moving sales and marketing online.Why it's significant: Rooftop solar companies <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rooftop-solar-company-sunrun-benefits-from-online-sales-strategy-2020-5">have been forced to move their operations online</a> in the wake of coronavirus. Analysts are wondering if those changes will stick. <ul><li>$1,000 in savings translates to about <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rooftop-solar-company-sunrun-benefits-from-online-sales-strategy-2020-5">15-18%</a> of the total sales and marketing budget per customer. </li><li>With savings that high, it's likely that Sunrun (and other companies) <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rooftop-solar-company-sunrun-benefits-from-online-sales-strategy-2020-5">will likely continue to invest in digital sales</a>. </li></ul>What to watch: Wildfire season is approaching in California, the largest solar market in the country. On the call, Jurich said "prescribed burns have been halted," which means "there's a real risk that we'll have more blackouts this fall." <ul><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackouts-and-superstorms-are-new-fuel-for-rooftop-solar-companies-2020-3">As we previously reported</a>, more blackouts could give the company's battery sales a boost. </li></ul><h2>4 big stories we didn't cover </h2><ul><li>Gov. support for <keyword id="154273" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="clean-energy">clean energy</keyword>: "The Treasury Department is signaling that it plans to offer more time for renewable power developers to qualify for tax credits as projects are disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic," <a href="https://www.axios.com/treasury-department-renewable-energy-relief-b9c13602-2847-4d00-a5ec-9eb46e72ed39.html">Axios reports</a>. </li><li>The "Great Shut-in of 2020:" The consulting firm IHS Markit now expects oil production to fall by as much as 17 million barrels per day in the period May through June. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>"The second quarter of 2020 will see the largest volume of liquids production cuts, including shut-in production, in the history of the oil industry," the firm said. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>A bad month for coal. Renewable energy sources produced more electricity than coal every single day in April for the first time ever, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.</li><li>Historic battery deal: California utility Southern California Edison contracted a whopping 770-megawatts of battery storage, among the largest deals ever seen, <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/southern-california-edison-picks-770mw-of-energy-storage-projects-to-be-built-by-next-year">Greentech Media reports</a>.</li></ul>That's it! Have a great weekend. - Benji Ps. I decided to start gardening. It's been a week since I seeded the ground and there's not a sprout in sight. I'm worried everything is dead. (Tips of the garden variety are also welcome.) <div type="image" title="Benji Jones garden" height="2250" width="3000" msid="75634706" hostid="261"></div>Read the original article on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/power-line-oil-price-layoffs-bankruptcies-continue-to-mount-2020-5">Business Insider</a>

Power Line: Oil industry cracks widen, a 150-hour battery, and one number that reveals how coronavirus is changing the rooftop solar industry

Welcome to <a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/insider-energy">Insider Energy</a>, a weekly <keyword id="6357014" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="energy">energy</keyword> newsletter brought to you by Business Insider. Here's what you need to know:<ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Want to get Insider Energy in your inbox every Friday? <a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/insider-energy">Sign up here</a>. </li><li>Do you have feedback or story tips? Reach out to me at <a href="mailto:bjones@businessinsider.com">bjones@businessinsider.com</a>. </li></ul>I'm still rehydrating after shedding a liter of tears last night while watching My Octopus Teacher. I touched an octopus once as a kid while diving off the coast of San Diego. It was a bad idea. (The lil guy got stressed out, inked, and then darted.) But boy, octopuses are so cool, and I'm a big fan of the doc — which, you know, makes me different than exactly no one. Anyway … this week in energy brought talks of a mega-merger, the year's biggest <keyword id="45681" type="TECHNOLOGY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Solar">solar</keyword> IPO, and a new forecast for the future of oil. Let's get to it! <div type="image" title="Diago Saez Gil Pachama" height="2307" width="3077" msid="78707030" hostid="261"></div><h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pachama-carbon-credit-startup-puts-a-price-tag-on-trees-2020-10">Amazon, Bill Gates, and Serena Williams bet on a unique startup that puts a price tag on trees</a></h2>In a sense, trees already have a price tag — if you cut them down, you can sell them as timber. But you can also make money by leaving them in the ground.Tell me more: Trees suck up carbon dioxide. In a world trying to decarbonize, people will pay for that service. <ul><li>There's a formal market that values the CO2-removing potential of a given forest. </li><li>The currency of that market is carbon credits. </li><li>The more CO2 a forest absorbs, the more credits it generates. </li></ul>A big opportunity … The market for carbon credits <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pachama-carbon-credit-startup-puts-a-price-tag-on-trees-2020-10">is soaring</a> as more and more companies make net-zero pledges. <ul><li>Analysts estimate it will hit <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pachama-carbon-credit-startup-puts-a-price-tag-on-trees-2020-10">$200 billion by 2050</a>, up from a mere $600 million last year. </li></ul>… and one that does not elude investors. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pachama-carbon-credit-startup-puts-a-price-tag-on-trees-2020-10">Amazon is among the high-profile funders backing the startup Pachama</a>, which runs a marketplace where companies can buy these credits. This week, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pachama-carbon-credit-startup-puts-a-price-tag-on-trees-2020-10">we took a closer look at Pachama and the market opportunity</a>. Three scientists we talked to complicated the story. <div type="image" title="FILE PHOTO: An array of solar panels is seen in the desert near Victorville, California, U.S. March 28, 2018. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson " height="3002" width="4002" msid="78707032" hostid="261"></div><h2>The year's biggest solar IPO is a company you've probably never heard of </h2>Solar is the nerdy kid in high school who turned popular in college. And it got a major ego boost Tuesday when the head of the International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/world-energy-outlook-2020-shows-how-the-response-to-the-covid-crisis-can-reshape-the-future-of-energy">said</a> solar is "becoming the new king of the world's electricity markets."Yet a major solar IPO this week largely flew under the radar. The news: On Thursday, solar hardware provider Array Technologies debuted on the Nasdaq under the ticker ARRY. <ul><li>It was a hugely successful IPO and expected to be the largest this year. </li><li>The company's share price <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-array-tech-ipo/array-technologies-shares-close-66-higher-after-nasdaq-debut-idUSKBN2702I2">was up two thirds</a> by market close on Thursday. </li><li>Array's market value reached nearly $5 billion Friday morning. </li></ul>Who is she? Array sells what are called solar trackers, a conceptually simple technology that allows the face of a solar panel to move with the sun and thus absorb more energy. (It's like when you're tanning on the beach and rotate your body to get maximum exposure as the sun changes position. Anyone?)<ul><li>Trackers allow panels to absorb about 25% more energy, Array CEO Jim Fusaro told me Thursday. "That's 25% more revenue for the customer," he said. </li><li>Array is the second-largest tracker company, controlling 17% of the market last year, <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/array-technology-shares-surge-after-first-big-us-solar-ipo-of-2020">according to Greentech Media</a>, citing research firm Wood Mackenzie. </li><li>Fusaro says Array's advantage is that it's cheaper than competitors. "Our technology delivers up to 6.7% lower LCOE than our largest competitor." </li><li>LCOE, or levelized cost of energy, is a common metric to measure the cost of producing renewable energy. </li></ul>Why the IPO matters: It's yet another sign that solar is no longer an obscure energy source and underpins a massive and growing market. <ul><li>Until recently, there weren't many public companies to invest in that make components of a solar system, Shawn Kravetz, the president and chief investment officer of Esplanade Capital, an investment firm, told us this week. </li><li>"What a great example of the investable universe continuing to grow," he said. </li><li>Potentially by the end of this year or early next, there could be up to three more solar tracking companies that go public, Paul Strigler, a VP at Esplanade, said. </li></ul>A startup to watch: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-rising-stars-leaders-of-clean-energy-2020-6#leila-madrone-founder-and-cto-sunfolding-18">We talked to Leila Madrone, the founder and CTO of the startup Sunfolding</a>, earlier this year. Sunfolding is developing a tracking technology that, unlike Array Technologies and its rivals, doesn't rely on motors. <ul><li>Sunfolding's technology uses air pressure instead.</li><li>"All you're doing is changing the pressure on one side of the machine versus the other side of the machine, and that naturally causes the panels to tilt," Madrone said.</li><li>That means the machines will use a lot less material and have far fewer maintenance locations. </li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-rising-stars-leaders-of-clean-energy-2020-6#leila-madrone-founder-and-cto-sunfolding-18">You can learn more about Madrone and her company here</a>. </li></ul><div type="image" title="ConocoPhillips" height="1584" width="2113" msid="78707038" hostid="261"></div><h2>Update: Industry <keyword id="35603" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="mergers">mergers</keyword>, bankruptcies</h2>Mergers: US oil company <keyword id="113266" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="ConocoPhillips">ConocoPhillips</keyword> is in talks to buy shale giant Concho Resources in a deal that could be announced in the next few weeks, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-14/conocophillips-is-said-to-be-in-talks-to-buy-concho-resources">Bloomberg reported</a>, citing people familiar with the matter. <ul><li>Analysts at Morgan Stanley said a new phase for the oil industry, focused on returns, is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-likely-mega-mergers-deals-in-the-oil-stocks-industry-2020-10">likely to bring a wave of consolidation</a>. </li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-likely-mega-mergers-deals-in-the-oil-stocks-industry-2020-10">Here the 11 deals they said are most likely.</a> (They notably did not include a takeover of Concho by ConocoPhillips; they said the US major could buy Parsley Energy, another Permian producer.)</li><li>Earlier this year, Chevron bought Noble Energy and Devon Energy said it was planning to merge with WPX Energy. </li></ul>Bankruptcies: From July to September, 17 fossil-fuel producers filed for bankruptcy, according to the law firm Haynes and Boone. That's a 21% increase from the same period last year, the firm said in <a href="https://www.haynesboone.com/-/media/files/energy_bankruptcy_reports/oil_patch_bankruptcy_monitor.ashx?la=en&amp;hash=D2114D98614039A2D2D5A43A61146B13387AA3AEA3AE">a report</a> this week. <ul><li>"Given the continued low price environment and no expectations for any commodity price increases soon, it is reasonable to expect that a substantial number of US producers will continue to seek protection from creditors in bankruptcy before this year is over," the firm said. </li></ul><h2>3 other stories we didn't cover</h2><ul><li>EV-startup Arrival raised another <a href="https://arrival.com/news/arrival-accelerates-global-expansion-with-118m-investment">$118 million</a> from funds managed by BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. </li><li>Oil demand is set to return around 2023, assuming the coronavirus is gradually brought under control, the International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020">said</a> in a big report this week. "The shadow of the pandemic looms large," the report said.</li><li>Scientists recorded the hottest September on record, <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/earth-just-had-its-hottest-september-on-record">according to</a> the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization. </li></ul>That's it! Have a great weekend. - Benji

This Amazon-backed startup puts a price tag on trees, eyeing a $200 billion market opportunity

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Well-known venture capitalist <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/fred-wilson">Fred Wilson</a> released his predictions for the 2020s this week.</li><li>He predicted that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/climate-change">climate change</a> will be the major crisis of the century, comparable to world wars of the previous century. </li><li>Wilson also predicted the collapse of real estate values in particularly vulnerable areas, and a resurgence of nuclear power.</li><li>Other VCs have predicted growth in "greentech" and interest in sustainability over the next decade.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.</a></li></ul>Legendary venture capitalist Fred Wilson calls himself an optimist, but his first prediction for the 2020s sounds bleak. Wilson is the cofounder of Union Square Ventures, a New York-based venture capital firm that's invested in companies like Stripe, Coinbase, Cloudflare, and Twitter. He's historically released his predictions for the coming year each January, and in his <a href="https://avc.com/2020/01/what-will-happen-in-the-2020s/">10 predictions for 2020</a>, Wilson places climate change - which he says will be the defining crisis of the century, akin to the world wars of the 20th century - at the top of his list."It will require countries and institutions to re-allocate capital from other endeavors to fight against a warming planet," Wilson wrote. "This is the decade we will begin to see this re-allocation of capital." Wilson predicted a few of the ways the imminent climate crisis will play out. He expects to see carbon "taxed like the vice that it is" in countries around the world, including the US. A carbon tax has been proposed in the US before: In 2016, a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mit-carbon-tax-only-way-to-break-dependence-on-fossil-fuels-2016-3">study from economists</a> at MIT and the University of Chicago suggested that it was the most promising way to fight climate change, and in 2019, 45 economists <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/climate-change-economists-agree-policy-needed-lawmakers-not-on-board-2019-1">published a letter</a> in The Wall Street Journal advocating for a carbon tax. According to Wilson, this decade may also bring a change in real estate, as values collapse in areas most detrimentally affected by climate change, and grow in areas that benefit from a warming planet. Others have seen this coming as well, with some investors demanding <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rising-seas-are-threatening-the-value-of-costal-real-estate-2018-8">discounts on coastal properties</a> due to the anticipated effects of climate change. Some millenials are even <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-buying-property-rural-areas-climate-disaster-vermont-oregon-2018-12">reportedly buying land in rural locations</a> as a climate crisis backup plan.Maybe more optimistically, Wilson wrote that he expects to see "massive capital investments made in protecting critical regions and infrastructure." One of the major criticisms of President Trump's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-infrastructure-plan-climate-change-environment-2018-2">$1.5 billion infrastructure plan</a> is that it fails to address resilience in the face of climate change.Wilson also predicted investment in alternative energy sources, including nuclear power and solar power."All of these things and many more will cause the capital markets to focus on and fund the climate issue to the detriment of many other sectors," he wrote.In a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/venture-capitalist-tech-predictions-for-2020">Business Insider roundup</a> of VC predictions for 2020, others noted that increasing awareness of climate change will make sustainability and "greentech" major areas of investment in the near future. Wilson echoed this idea in another of his predictions, suggesting that plant-based diets will become dominant by the end of the decade as food production moves to labs and people seek to lessen the environmental impact of their diets.

Venture capitalist Fred Wilson made an ominous prediction that climate change will be this century's world war

Welcome to <keyword id="933977" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="power-line">Power Line</keyword>, a weekly <keyword id="6357014" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="energy">energy</keyword> newsletter brought to you by Business Insider.Here's what you need to know:<ul><li>There will be no newsletter next week. </li><li>Want to get Power Line in your inbox every Friday? <a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/power-line">Sign up here</a>. </li><li>Most of our content is available to BI Prime subscribers. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/prime-discount?r=birefer-bjoneshttps://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/prime-discount?r=birefer-bjones">Click here for 20% off</a>. </li></ul>Now would be a good time to explain that I'm obsessed with <keyword id="55579" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="ALGAE">algae</keyword>, AKA pond scum. We all should be.These organisms are the reason that Earth became a breathable planet. They're also responsible for all the crude <keyword id="6359072" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil">oil</keyword> in the ground. Indeed, petroleum deposits in the Earth's crust <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exxons-investment-in-algae-based-biofuels-with-synthetic-genomics-2020-6">are little more than the ancient remains of algae</a>. A group of mostly photosynthetic microbes, algae <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exxons-investment-in-algae-based-biofuels-with-synthetic-genomics-2020-6">boast an impressive concentration of lipids, or fats, in their cells</a>. And as researchers learned decades ago, you don't have to wait eons to turn them into oil … <div type="image" title="exxon algae based biofuels 2x1" height="1200" width="2400" msid="76757069" hostid="261"></div><h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exxons-investment-in-algae-based-biofuels-with-synthetic-genomics-2020-6">Why Exxon is still betting algae biofuels are the future a decade after other oil giants abandoned their multimillion-dollar projects</a></h2>Owing to their high concentrations of lipids and rapid growth, algae are near-perfect candidates for biofuel production. You can grow them in ponds and then process them into fuels like diesel. But: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exxons-investment-in-algae-based-biofuels-with-synthetic-genomics-2020-6">Those fuels are really expensive to produce</a> relative to crude oil extracted from the ground. Several companies learned this the hard way including oil majors Shell and BP. <ul><li>More than a decade ago, Shell and BP, among scores of other companies, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exxons-investment-in-algae-based-biofuels-with-synthetic-genomics-2020-6">invested millions</a> in algae biofuel research. </li><li>A few years later, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exxons-investment-in-algae-based-biofuels-with-synthetic-genomics-2020-6">they abandoned those projects</a>. Former employees said it came down to poor economics. </li></ul><keyword id="6383208" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="exxon">Exxon</keyword> remains <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exxons-investment-in-algae-based-biofuels-with-synthetic-genomics-2020-6">the only major oil company still betting big on algae biofuels</a>, leading top algae scientists to question the company's intentions. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exxons-investment-in-algae-based-biofuels-with-synthetic-genomics-2020-6">Read more in our feature on Exxon's algae biofuel bet</a><div type="image" title="rising stars clean energy 2x1" height="1200" width="2400" msid="76757073" hostid="261"></div><h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-rising-stars-leaders-of-clean-energy-2020-6">These 21 emerging leaders in the clean-energy industry will give you hope for the future</a></h2>This week we published <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-rising-stars-leaders-of-clean-energy-2020-6">our list of rising stars in clean energy</a>. It's a reminder that while it may feels like the world is falling apart, there are a lot of incredible people building it back up. <ul><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-rising-stars-leaders-of-clean-energy-2020-6#gia-schneider-cofounder-and-ceo-natel-energy-13">Gia Schneider</a> is a former Credit Suisse banker who is now building a new generation of river-friendly water turbines with the backing of a Bill Gates-led fund.</li><li>After witnessing the effects of pollution near her Texas hometown, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-rising-stars-leaders-of-clean-energy-2020-6#etosha-cave-cofounder-opus-12-14">Etosha Cave</a> has figured out how to turn carbon emissions into stuff we actually want. </li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-rising-stars-leaders-of-clean-energy-2020-6#gene-berdichevsky-cofounder-and-ceo-sila-nanotechnologies-16">Gene Berdichevsky</a> was employee number 7 at Tesla. Now he's leading his own company that's building batteries that promise to give electric cars 20% more range.</li></ul>Though ultimately motivated by the threat of climate change, these emerging leaders are taking a bite out of a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-rising-stars-leaders-of-clean-energy-2020-6">$600 billion industry</a> for clean energy. <ul><li>Clean energy will be a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-rising-stars-leaders-of-clean-energy-2020-6">$16 trillion investment opportunity through 2030</a>, according to Goldman Sachs. </li></ul><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-rising-stars-leaders-of-clean-energy-2020-6">See the full list of 21 rising stars here</a><h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-top-oil-companies-are-responding-to-the-price-shock-2020-3">Shell and BP are writing down up to $40 billion in assets. Here's what that means. </a></h2>BP announced in mid-June that it's <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-revises-long-term-price-assumptions.html">writing down</a> oil and gas assets by as much as $17.5 billion. Now, <a href="https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2020/shell-second-quarter-2020-update-note.html">Shell is following suit</a>, with an announcement this week that it would write down its assets by up to $22 billion. Write-downs, explained: When companies write down their assets it means they're acknowledging that those assets are worth less than the value they originally ascribed to them.Why it matters: The write-downs are another example of the pandemic's toll on the oil and gas industry. They're also a sign that these companies are preparing for a lower-carbon economy. <ul><li>The pandemic has gutted demand for oil, sending the price-per-barrel tumbling. Cheap oil and an outlook of lower demand makes oil-related assets less valuable.</li><li>These write-downs suggest that some oil and gas resources may be left in the ground. </li><li>BP <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-revises-long-term-price-assumptions.html">said</a> it expects the transition to low-carbon energy to accelerate in the wake of the pandemic when it announced the write-downs.</li><li>Shell made a similar <a href="https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2020/shell-second-quarter-2020-update-note.html">statement</a>: "The Refining asset valuation updates reflect Shell's strategy to reshape and focus its refining portfolio to support the decarbonization of its energy product mix."</li></ul><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-top-oil-companies-are-responding-to-the-price-shock-2020-3">We're tracking how 19 top oil and gas companies are responding to the oil price rout. Check it out here. </a><h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-9-oil-energy-stocks-to-buy-now-2020-7">Investing: Goldman Sachs shares its top 9 oil stocks</a></h2><keyword id="51471" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Oil-price">Oil price</keyword> today: Brent crude started trading at $42 a barrel on Thursday, up about 6% since early June and down about 36% since the start of the year. Price in 2021: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-9-oil-energy-stocks-to-buy-now-2020-7">$55 a barrel, on average</a>, Goldman Sachs said in a note Wednesday. That's roughly $10 below where it was before the pandemic took hold. In the note, Goldman analysts also shared their top stock picks for integrated oil companies and refiners, which turn crude into fuel and other products. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-9-oil-energy-stocks-to-buy-now-2020-7">You can see all of their picks here</a>.<h2>4 big stories from this week</h2><ul><li>Chesapeake Energy, a natural gas pioneer, filed for bankruptcy. (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/28/business/economy/chesapeake-energy-bankruptcy.html">New York Times</a>) </li><li>BP agreed to sell its petrochemical business to the British chemicals company Ineos for $5 billion. (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/bp-exits-petrochemical-business-in-5-billion-deal-11593424980">WSJ</a>)</li><li>House Dems released a sweeping climate-change plan that "laid out policies to help the US work toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in all areas of the nation's economy by midcentury," <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/democrats-in-u.s-house-lay-out-climate-clean-energy-priorities-in-behemoth-plan">Greentech Media reports</a>.</li><li>Tesla overtook Exxon in market value "in a sign that investors are increasingly betting on a global energy transition away from fossil fuels," <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-30/tesla-overtakes-exxon-s-market-value-in-symbolic-energy-shift">Bloomberg News reports</a>.</li></ul>That's it! Have a safe 4th of July weekend. - Benji

Power Line: Exxon's confusing bet on algae — Rising stars of clean energy — Top oil stocks

Nabil al-Jurani/APAn oil worker operates valves in a field north of Basra, IraqWelcome to Power Line, a weekly energy newsletter brought to you by Business Insider.Here's what you need to know:<ul><li>Want to get this newsletter in your inbox every Friday? <a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/4np/power-line">Sign up here</a>. </li><li>Most of our content is available to BI Prime subscribers. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/prime-discount?r=birefer-bjoneshttps://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/prime-discount?r=birefer-bjones">Click here for 20% off</a>. </li><li>Got a tip? Email <a href="mailto:energy@businessinsider.com">energy@businessinsider.com</a>. </li></ul>Essam Al-Sudani/ReutersIraqi workers stand near a pipeline as it ejects oil at Al Tuba oil field in Basra, southeast of Baghdad<h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-glut-threatens-to-drive-oil-prices-further-into-ground-2020-3">The oil saga continues</a> </h2>In case you missed it: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-glut-threatens-to-drive-oil-prices-further-into-ground-2020-3">Global demand for oil has crashed</a> thanks to the common denominator of all spring 2020 ails - the novel coronavirus. <ul><li>Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Russia have been locked in a price war, after negotiations to limit supply collapsed last month. </li><li>Together, these forces have caused the price of oil to nosedive, falling by as much as 65% earlier this week, relative to the start of the year. </li></ul>What's new: Starting this month - when demand could bottom out - <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-glut-threatens-to-drive-oil-prices-further-into-ground-2020-3">Saudi Arabia is boosting supply by as much as 25%</a>. This "tsunami," as one research group called it, could plunge the price further into the ground. But: Signs that an agreement is coming together among a coalition of oil-producing nations known as OPEC Plus to pare back supply are buoying the price. <ul><li>OPEC Plus is hosting an emergency virtual meeting on Monday to discuss cuts, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/opec-to-hold-virtual-meeting-monday-as-trump-pushes-for-cut">Bloomberg reports</a>. </li><li>Meanwhile, President Trump is meeting with executives from several US oil giants later today to discuss solutions to the price crisis, which could include tariffs on oil imports. </li><li>The price of oil <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/opec-to-hold-virtual-meeting-monday-as-trump-pushes-for-cut">surged more than 40% on Thursday</a> in response to the news. But at around $33 this morning, Brent is still down about 50%. </li></ul>Don't hold your breath: "Because of the lags we anticipate in implementing the cut and the already occurring demand collapse, a coordinated response is therefore likely to be too little too late," Goldman Sachs said in a note yesterday. Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesGas prices are falling across the country in the wake of the novel coronavirus, which has stunted global oil demand.<h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-gas-costs-95-cents-at-some-stations-oil-price-2020-3">When oil is down, who wins?</a></h2>Drivers. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-gas-costs-95-cents-at-some-stations-oil-price-2020-3">Cheap oil means cheap gasoline</a>. <ul><li>The national average fell below $2 a gallon earlier this week</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-gas-costs-95-cents-at-some-stations-oil-price-2020-3">More than a dozen stations</a> across the country are selling gas for 99 cents or less. </li><li>The price of gas, set by station owners, varies region to region <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-gas-costs-95-cents-at-some-stations-oil-price-2020-3">based on things like state tax and the size of the local market</a>. </li></ul>But don't book your summer road trip just yet: The main reason gas is so cheap is demand is down - largely because no one is driving.<ul><li>Once people hit the road in mass, reviving demand, the price will likely bounce back in a matter of weeks. </li></ul><h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-top-25-oil-companies-lost-billions-in-3-months-2020-4">And the losers?</a></h2>Companies that find, extract, and produce oil. That much may be obvious. What's stunning is just how much these companies have lost. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-top-25-oil-companies-lost-billions-in-3-months-2020-4">The 25 largest oil and gas companies lost more than $810 billion in market value in the last three months. </a><ul><li>ExxonMobil alone saw its market cap shrink <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-top-25-oil-companies-lost-billions-in-3-months-2020-4">by nearly $135 billion</a>. </li><li>Schlumberger, the world's largest oilfield service company, lost an eye-popping 66% of its market cap. </li></ul>Unfortunately, budget cuts, layoffs, and even bankruptcies follow. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-top-oil-companies-are-responding-to-the-price-shock-2020-3">We're tracking all of them here</a>, but some highlights from this week include: <ul><li>Whiting Petroleum was the first major exploration and production company to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-shale-driller-whiting-petroleum-to-file-for-bankruptcy-11585746800">file for bankruptcy</a>. </li><li>Oil supermajor BP slashed its 2020 capex by about 25%. </li></ul>SunrunSunrun is the largest residential solar installer in the US.<h2><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sunrun-laid-off-workers-furlough-rooftop-solar-coronavirus-2020-4">Layoffs hit rooftop solar</a></h2>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sunrun-laid-off-workers-furlough-rooftop-solar-coronavirus-2020-4">we reported that Sunrun - the country's top rooftop solar company by market share - laid off at least 100 or so staff</a> and furloughed at least 65 more through a series of Google video calls. <ul><li>"This pandemic has forced some tough decisions on our business, including a reduction to certain parts of our workforce," Sunrun said in a statement to Business Insider.</li><li>If you have information about the layoffs, please reach out to <a href="mailto:energy@businessinsider.com">energy@businessinsider.com</a>. </li></ul>Sunrun layoffs are just one symptom of the pandemic's impact on rooftop solar. <ul><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bnef-analysts-slash-projections-for-2020-renewable-energy-installations-2020-3">Research firms that track renewable-energy installations have been slashing their 2020 forecasts during the COVID-19 outbreak</a> - and solar is seeing some of the deepest cuts.</li><li>The research firm Wood Mackenzie "expects to revise downward its 2020 residential forecast by 23 to 40 percent," <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/coronavirus-shutdowns-equate-to-sharp-decline-in-demand-for-residential-solar?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=Daily&amp;utm_campaign=GTMDaily">Greentech Media reports</a>. </li><li>It doesn't help that California, the nation's largest solar market, has been sheltering in place since March 19. </li></ul><h2>4 big stories we didn't cover</h2><ul><li>The clean-energy industry is asking for aid, again, in the next COVID-19 response bill, <a href="https://www.axios.com/renewable-energy-coronavirus-stimulus-bill-53a1eed5-c292-4889-a356-f261c730c0be.html">Axios reports</a>. </li><ul><li>The US government omitted help for the sector in the recent $2 trillion stimulus package. </li></ul><li>Wood Mackenzie <a href="https://www.woodmac.com/reports/power-markets-coronavirus-creates-31-downside-scenario-for-2020-baseline-forecast-for-us-btm-storage-market-397599/?utm_source=gtm&amp;utm_medium=article&amp;utm_campaign=wmpr_stordownside">slashed its 2020 forecast</a> for distributed storage - things like batteries attached to rooftop solar arrays - by nearly a third in the wake of coronavirus. </li><li>The United Nations postponed its prominent climate change conference, COP, which was originally scheduled for November, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/04/01/un-climate-coronavirus-cop26/">The Washington Post reports</a>. </li><ul><li>"The arena where the massive event was to take place, the SEC Centre, is being converted into a field hospital." </li></ul><li>Green hydrogen could "cut up to 34% of global greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and industry - at a manageable cost," according to <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/hydrogen-economy-offers-promising-path-to-decarbonization/">a new report</a> by the research firm BloombergNEF.</li><ul><li>Green hydrogen is hydrogen gas made through electrolysis powered by renewable energy. </li></ul></ul>That's it! Have a great weekend, and stay safe.- Benji Do you have a personal experience with the coronavirus you'd like to share? Or a tip on how your town or community is handling the pandemic? Please email <a href="mailto:covidtips@businessinsider.com">covidtips@businessinsider.com</a> and tell us your story.And get the latest <a href="/coronavirus-business-impact">coronavirus analysis and research</a> from Business Insider Intelligence on how COVID-19 is impacting businesses. <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bats-breeding-ground-viruses-superhost-coronavirus-2020-4">Why bats are the perfect breeding ground for viruses</a></h3>

Power Line: Sunrun layoffs, a 'tsunami' of oil absolutely no one wants, and gas for 87 cents

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>Tom Werner, the CEO of solar installer SunPower, said he's "skeptical" Tesla can offer a solar roof at the low price point CEO Elon Musk has promised.Musk first unveiled Tesla's solar roof product in late October, just a few weeks before the company <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-solarcity-deal-closes-2016-11" target="_blank">acquired SolarCity</a> in a deal worth $2.1 billion. At the time, Musk said Tesla's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-solar-roof-solar-city-features-2017-2/" target="_blank">four different roof shingles</a> will allow owners to ditch clunky solar panels in favor of an aesthetically appealing roof.Better yet, Musk said it's likely the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-solar-roof-cost-less-than-normal-roof-2016-11" target="_blank">solar roof will cost less than a normal roof</a>, factoring in the price of labor."It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even take the value of electricity into account," Musk said at the time.Tesla is <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/teslas-model-3-and-solar-roof-arriving-in-2017-2017-2" target="_blank">on track</a> to begin selling and installing its solar roof later this year.But Werner said he thinks it's unlikely Tesla's solar roof will be affordable. "I'm frankly a little skeptical, but I've learned in 14 years not to discount entirely," Werner told Business Insider.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>Werner said he's skeptical because 10 years ago, SunPower offered a solar roof option, but found it was too expensive for the amount of energy it produced."You take the same material and you have less energy production because it's a little shingle," Werner said. "And then also, because they're part of the roof, they get hot. So you have to pay to keep them cool.""It's a trade-off of looks cool versus costs more," he continued. "We found our customers said it doesn't look cool enough to offset."SunPower isn't the only company that has had difficulty making the solar roof a reality. Dow Chemical Company discontinued its solar shingle business in July 2016 because they were less efficient, making them difficult to sell, <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/dow-chemical-sheds-solar-shingle-business" target="_blank">Greentech Media</a> reported at the time."It's a well-traveled path... this is not novel at all," Werner said. In fairness, Musk is known to pull off what is thought to be impossible. After all, this is the same CEO behind a company that has <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-rocket-landing-ocean-success-2016-4" target="_blank">landed a rocket on a floating platform</a> in the middle of the ocean. He also has managed to keep his electric car business afloat during a time where <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/electric-car-sales-decline-2016-8" target="_blank">many startups in the space went bankrupt</a>.It's also worth taking Werner's comments with a grain of salt. Sunpower, one of the biggest solar companies, was born out of Stanford University. But the company is now owned by Total, Europe's third-largest oil company.However, it seems unlikely Tesla would offer a product that's exactly the same as its failed predecessors."What the form factor looks like could be novel, and I'm sure they'll come up with something novel," Werner said. "But the concept, lots of companies have been there."Tesla declined to comment on Werner's claims.We'll have to wait to hear more about Tesla's solar roof when it comes to efficiency and price. But Werner said if Tesla is successful, SunPower will be sure to resurrect a new-and-improved version of its solar roof to get a slice of the pie.Werner added that even though Tesla creates competition for SunPower, Musk's entry into the space can only be a good thing for the solar industry."As a market leader with the best technology, the more he tweets, great," he said. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/everything-you-need-to-know-about-tesla-solar-roof-2017-3">Tesla will begin selling its Solar Roof this year - here's everything you need to know</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="c1NTQ0YTE6EjsbgoDOTr1nASgK_gjuEm" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

The CEO of a major solar company said he's 'skeptical' Tesla can pull off the solar roof - here's why

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">TeslaCome on down!</div></div></div><ul><li><a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/tsla-quote" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tesla</a> could run out of money in 2018 unless it raises more cash.</li><li>Investors have been happy to fund the company.</li><li>But Tesla has to get its act together with its <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/model-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Model 3</a> - and fast.</li></ul> Suddenly, everyone is fixated on Tesla's cash burn. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/tesla-is-blowing-through-8-000-every-minute-amid-model-3-woes">Bloomberg recently crunched the numbers</a> and concluded that at its current pace of monetary incineration, Tesla will tap out next August.The numbers are daunting. Tesla is spending more than $1 billion per quarter to sustain its existing business and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/why-tesla-is-struggling-to-make-model-3-2017-10/#5-the-model-3-looks-simpler-than-the-model-s-and-the-model-x-but-is-it-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ramp up production of its troubled Model 3.</a> For a company building just three cars, that's worrisome. <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-cash-burn-could-become-problem-2017-11-1006510633">General Motors is also spending a billion every quarter</a> - the biggest US automaker manufactures dozen of different vehicles worldwide and is on track sell almost 10 million cars and trucks.From a return-on-investment-capital standpoint, Tesla is a catastrophe, while GM is a triumph. GM has been making money for years and is now seeing its stock climb to a post-IPO high point. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-earnings-q3-2017-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tesla just notched the biggest quarterly loss</a> in the company's 14-year history.That said, Tesla continues to enjoy a $50-billion-ish market cap (larger than <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/f-quote" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ford</a> and <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/Fiat_Chrysler-Quote" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Fiat Chrysler Automobiles</a>) and a seemingly endless appetite for new capital raises and more recently, debt issuance. Get ready for more of that in either late 2017 or early 2018, as Tesla is going to be down to its last billion by year's end and will require a few more three-comma fundings to make it through the next 12 months.<h2>The greatest show in the car business</h2><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">TeslaTrucks!</div></div></div>In the meantime, CEO Elon Musk is in full-on showman mode - with designs on hitting up Tesla's wealthiest supporters and most futuristic customers for more money. In Los Angeles two weeks ago, he rolled out the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-semi-event-pictures-details-features-2017-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tesla Semi Truck</a> - and started taking order for it, at $5,000 a pop. He also surprised everybody with a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/new-tesla-roadster-2017-2017-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">new Roadster</a> - and started taking orders for the $250,000 Founders Edition of the sports car. Tesla only opened up 1,000 reservations for the vehicle, and each buyer has to pay the $250,000 to reserve their spot. You gotta do what you gotta do, and if Musk can bring in $250 million by selling 1,000 Roadsters years ahead of actually building the car, it will give Tesla a bit of breathing room on the cash front. As <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/tesla-roadster-deposits-creative-financing#gs.Qhuuhd4">Greentech Media's </a><a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/tesla-roadster-deposits-creative-financing#gs.Qhuuhd4">Katie Fehrenbacher noted</a>, that's more than Tesla raised with its 2010 IPO. I've said that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-is-the-greatest-car-salesman-who-has-ever-lived-2016-10">Musk is the greatest car salesman who has every lived</a>, and his latest moves bear out that observation.But let's not kid ourselves, the next 12 months are going to be a very, very rough ride for Musk and his company. He has admitted that the Model 3 - a $35,000 base-priced EV - is in <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-says-model-3-faces-production-hell-2017-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">production hell</a>, but it's actually worse than that. Musk had predicted monthly production of 20,000 vehicles by December, but Tesla will be lucky to build 1,000. The <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-production-delayed-because-issues-gigafactory-2017-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">holdup is with a Tesla's battery factory </a>in Nevada, and that's astonishing. Tesla is great at making batteries. This shouldn't be the weak link in the chain.Elsewhere, GM could sell 5,000 of its <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/chevy-bolt" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Chevy Bolt EV</a> in December. As that car begins to appear more often on US roads and as customers race to take advantage of a federal tax credit that Republican tax bill threatens to eliminate, Tesla is at real risk of losing Model 3 sales as customers demand that their $1,000 deposits be refunded.<h2>Tesla has a long history of production problems</h2><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Alexandria Sage/ReutersThat'll be $250,000.</div></div></div>Tesla's core business of selling $100,000 luxury EVs to people who don't need a $7,500 tax incentive is in pretty good shape. The company could delivery 100,000 Model S's and Model X's in 2017, setting a record and consolidating a monopoly on premium electric vehicles. But Tesla has also been weak in a critical fundamental: production. The Model S and Model X have fallen short of Tesla's deliveries guidance every year. I think this issue will resolve as 2017 winds down because the company is now maxed out on S and X manufacturing. As long as it maintains a steady 100,000 annually, all should be well.The Model 3, meanwhile, is a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/why-tesla-is-struggling-to-make-model-3-2017-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">production disaster.</a> And it is sort of unprecedented in the auto industry - in two ways. First, because Tesla has 500,000 pre-orders for the vehicle, something that's never happened before for any automaker. Second, because if any other automaker had half a million pre-orders for anything, it would be moving heaven and Earth to get those vehicles to market. There's nothing intrinsically exotic about the Model 3, either. It's a midsize sedan. Toyota could build a million next year without breaking a sweat.Investors don't care about this stuff, however. That's because the Tesla story is just too enticing.<h2>Musk's storytelling captivates the public and investors</h2><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Reuters/Mike BlakeIt's just money!</div></div></div>Don't discount the value of that! Musk is an unparalleled storyteller. I was at the Semi/Roadster unveiling, and it was the most thrilling event I've ever attended in a decade of covering the car business. There's an old saying in the industry about how you get people to part with many thousands to buy a depreciating asset: "Show them the car!"Musk doesn't just show. He sets a new standard for showing. In the flush of excitement, investors prevent the stock from crashing to where it probably should be fairly valued, at around $100-150 per share, and customers cough up the cash to be part of the frenzy. This can't last forever. In fact, 2018 will be the critical test. If Tesla passes, the stock could vindicate the most bullish advocates at surge to $500. Or it could plummet, and fast. Look out below will be the order of the day. If the latter, Tesla's bankruptcy risk will increase, but we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. Yes, the Model 3 is a mess. But the core business can still be a profitable life raft, if the Model 3 proves to be the car that almost killed Tesla. And Musk can always sell off chunks of the company, as he has in the past to Daimler, Toyota, and most recently, Tencent. Heck, he could sell the entire company, although it would be a big bite.For now, investor confidence, though battered, is holding. Everyone is on edge. But we wouldn't be talking about Tesla if we weren't.Get the latest Tesla stock price<a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/TSLA-Quote"> here.</a> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/watch-tesla-unveil-new-roadster-convertible-semi-truck-event-stream-2017-11">Watch Tesla unveil a brand new Roadster, which Musk says will be the fastest production car ever made</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

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