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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's oil revenue fell sharply year-over-year in October.</li><li>Oil-related tax revenue dropped 29% last month, while oil and gas proceeds fell more than 25%.</li></ul>Russia saw a double-digit drop in oil revenue last month, hitting an important source of funds for the Kremlin amid pressure on global crude prices. Moscow's revenue from oil-related taxes plummeted 29% year-over-year in October, from 1.48 trillion rubles to 1.05 trillion rubles, according to data from Russia's Finance Ministry. Oil and gas proceeds, which is largely made up of oil production taxes and profit-based taxes in the industry, also fell more than 25% to 1.21 trillion rubles.Total oil and gas revenue rose on a monthly basis, with October levels up more than 75% compared to September. However, that's largely because the profit-based tax on Russia's oil industry is due four times a year, with companies paying taxes in March, April, July, and October, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-05/kremlin-oil-revenue-shrank-by-29-in-october-amid-lower-prices">Bloomberg reported</a>.The yearly drop has largely been fueled by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-oil-war-revenue-crude-prices-opec-production-cut-2024-9">falling crude prices</a>. International crude prices logged their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-today-israel-strike-iran-production-brent-wti-crude-2024-10">biggest drop in two years</a> last month after Israel's strike against Iran spared its oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11">US producers are pumping more than ever</a>, complicating efforts by OPEC+ to crimp supply and boost the price. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded around $75 a barrel on Tuesday, down 11% over the last year. Meanwhile, Urals crude, Russia's flagship oil blend, traded around $63.57, down around 24% compared to the same time last year, Bloomberg data shows.The drop in oil revenue throttles a key source of funds for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-outlook-moscow-sanctions-west-firms-uchicago-2024-10">Russia's war-driven economy</a>, which is becoming increasingly strained under the rising costs of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia's oil and gas industries have accounted for around 30%-50% of Russia's federal budget revenue for the last decade, according to an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/follow-the-money-understanding-russias-oil-and-gas-revenues/">analysis</a> from The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Russia's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10">defense state spending</a>, meanwhile, is on track to hit a post-Soviet high in 2025.

Russia's oil revenue plummeted 29% in October amid volatile global crude prices

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil and gas prices will likely fall under Trump's proposed tariffs, a Bank of America strategist said.</li><li>He said tariffs will lead to a trade war, dampening demand and prices in the process.</li></ul>Oil and gas prices are set to fall amid an onslaught of steep tariffs under Donald Trump, according to Bank of America strategist Francisco Blanch.Blanch says the president-elect's proposed tariffs will likely curb global trade, driving down oil and gas prices in the process."America first means commodities second, and I think we kind of start from that point," he said in a Monday interview with Bloomberg Television.Trump has floated proposals of sweeping <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">tariffs</a> of 10% to 20% on all countries, with the exception of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stimulus-trump-us-election-tariffs-chinese-economy-trade-war-2024-10">China</a>, where the US would impose steeper duties of 60%. As those tariffs heighten trade tensions, that could slow economic growth and lead to higher inflation and interest rates, dampening demand and prices, Blanch's comments suggest.That could have an impact on production, too, Blanch says.In theory, Trump's deregulatory stances and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-trump-climate-policies-ev-subsidies-renewables-fossil-fuel-drilling-2024-7?utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=business-sf&amp;utm_source=facebook&amp;fbclid=IwY2xjawGoeZpleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfLoB8Cl3sA7ngI6j0XqTGKOlLQQq9ktKNJV9_yySewhWgslJ6LnmWQFXg_aem_oIAve7xxBu3McHKWflkroA">pro-fossil fuel</a> views should boost production. Throughout his campaign, Trump promised to lower energy prices by boosting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-lower-gas-prices-exxonmobil-ceo-oil-boom-2024-11">US oil production</a>, saying, "We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill," at a rally in Detroit last month."I will cut your energy prices in half within 12 months," he added.But if prices are lower amid sweeping tariffs, that could mean production slows, too, as producers see less incentive to accelerate drilling, Blanch says."In America, prices determine how much output producers ultimately pull out of the ground, and I think the bigger risk to prices really is coming from tariffs. We have potentially a trade war here," he said, adding that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-recession-fears-jump-trump-trade-war-tariffs-2024-11">trade war</a> is the main downside risk to demand globally.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11?_gl=1*4rar5l*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTk1ODgyNS40MjAuMS4xNzMxOTU5NDEwLjIxLjAuMA..">US oil production</a> is also already historically high, reaching 13.4 million barrels a day in August to hit a new all-time monthly high.There are also some upside risks to commodity prices, Blanch acknowledges.He points to geopolitical tensions, including those in the Middle East and Ukraine. During his first term, Trump employed strict sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and with Marco Rubio appointed as Secretary of State, that could bring such policies back, Blanch says."He's an anti-Iran, anti-Venezuela hawk. I think that could have an impact," he said, implying that stricter sanctions on those countries could drive up prices."Whatever happens to those geopolitical events that we're going through right now I think will also determine the path," he added.

'America first means commodities second': Oil and gas prices will tank under a Trump presidency, BofA strategist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Saudi Arabia is committed to boosting oil output in December, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd">FT reported</a>.</li><li>The kingdom is resigning itself to a period a lower prices, sources told the FT.</li></ul>A report that Saudi Arabia would ditch its unofficial crude price target sent crude oil prices sharply lower on Thursday.According to sources that spoke with the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd">Financial Times</a>, the kingdom will no longer seek a $100 per barrel price and is instead ready to increase oil output.Speculation has mounted over what the world's largest oil exporter may do. Even as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members have progressively<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/surprise-oil-cutbacks-send-prices-soaring-30-year-oil-expert-2023-11"> cut oil output</a> to prop up global pricing, waning demand pushed crude to its lowest level since 2021 earlier this month.Despite this, those familiar with the matter said that Riyadh is prepared to boost output as scheduled on December 1. In essence, the kingdom is giving in to lower prices, FT sources said.Markets spiraled on the news, dropping over 3%. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell as low as $70.7 as of 11:00 am ET. An even steeper decline hit US West Texas Intermediate, hitting $67 a barrel.The kingdom's decision may seem counterintuitive, as the $100 per barrel threshold <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/crude-oil-prices-demand-collapse-saudi-arabia-production-russia-opec-2023-9">is considered essential</a> to financing the Saudi budget. Yet, sources told FT that Riyadh is no longer comfortable ceding its market share to other producers by limiting production.OPEC's joint efforts to support higher prices have also been made difficult by the fact that some coalition members have partially disregarded the restrictions. One source told FT that, if countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan do not commit to curbing supply, Riyadh may unwind its own cuts quicker than expected.Under the current plan, Saudi Arabia will boost its monthly production by 83,000 barrels per day each month from December.Prices have stayed low as China, a key consumer of global oil, has signaled a lackluster appetite for the commodity.According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-25/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-sept-26">Bloomberg</a>, developments in Libya also added to Thursday's oil plunge.The country agreed to appoint a new central bank governor, ending a deadlock between rival administrations. The eastern-based faction has committed to reopening the country's oil fields in response, a move that could bring more crude output back online.

Why oil prices have plunged 3% today

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil prices fell over 6% after Israel's missile strike on Iran spared its oil production infrastructure.</li><li>Israel hit military targets and reportedly warned the country ahead of the attack.</li></ul>Oil prices plunged on Monday, dropping more than 6% in the steepest intra-day decline since September 2022.Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, pared some of its steepest losses by mid-morning and was down by about 5% to $72.13 a barrel. US oil prices fell over 5% to $67.90 a barrel. The sharp drop came after Israel retaliated against Iran over the weekend. The strikes were a response to an attack by Iran on October 1 that saw about 200 ballistic missiles launched at Israel. Iran produced an average of about 4 million barrels of oil per day in 2023. Prior to the retaliation by Israel, energy markets were bracing for a targeted strike against Iran's oil production sites to disrupt global energy markets and push crude prices higher.But Israel's attack over the weekend avoided Iran's oil facilities, which had previously been considered as a target, and instead targeted military sites throughout the country, hitting missile-production facilities and air-defense sites. "The market was concerned that the oil and nuclear facilities could have been hit. That didn't happen, so the market is pricing out that risk for now," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-10-28-2024/card/oil-prices-eye-biggest-one-day-fall-in-over-two-years-67Ae2nF9c3Eqe83DUgmy?mod=lctimeline_finance">said.</a>Additionally, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/10/26/israel-iran-attack-warning">a report from Axios</a> said that Israel notified Iran of the imminent strike and warned the country against retaliating. Since the strike, Iran has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/explosions-heard-iran-syria-middle-east-braces-israeli-retaliation-2024-10-25/">played down Israel's retaliation</a> and said they caused "limited damage."The reported warning from Israel and downplaying of the attack by officials in Iran suggests both countries could be trying to avoid further escalation in their conflict, potentially easing tensions that have kept oil prices elevated in recent months.

Oil prices plunge most in 2 years after Israel's strike on Iran spares production facilities     

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil could see a decline to a "much, much" lower price, according to crude analyst Tom Kloza.</li><li>Oversupply will weigh on oil prices in 2025, Kloza predicted.</li></ul>The oil market is headed into a troubled year in 2025, and crude prices may fall "much, much" lower, according to Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at Oil Price Information Service.The oil analyst said crude prices would experience more downward pressure in 2025 despite concerns that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-israel-iran-geopolitics-middle-east-war-crude-2024-10">conflict in the Middle East</a> could escalate and send prices higher.Traders shouldn't bet on supply disruptions in the Middle East, and the world is already so oversupplied with oil that prices are bound to drop, he said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QP9h3rnAf2c">in an interview with CNBC</a> on Wednesday.The US <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-crude-production-record-opec-cuts-russia-saudi-arabia-2024-3">produced more oil than any other country</a> in history in 2023, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-oil-production-boom-crude-supply-wti-price-goldman-sachs-2024-7">production boom will likely last until at least 2026,</a> Goldman Sachs previously estimated, pointing to factors like increased drilling efficiency. OPEC+, the oil cartel led by Saudi Arabia, is also expected to churn out more crude oil by the end of the year, Kloza said, pointing to a recent ministerial meeting that reviewed oil market conditions."It was pointing lower, and I think it's still pointing lower. Because, you have to consider that there's probably around 600,000 or 700,000 [barrels] of additional crude for export that's going to come out as temperatures moderate in Saudi Arabia and Iraq," Kloza said. "You have a market that's pointed to the downside."Kloza brushed off concerns that supply disruptions could arise from conflict in the Middle East."It's not a probability. It's a little like, there's a possibility that the Giants and the Jets could be winning the Super Bowl this year, but I wouldn't be betting on it," he said.Kloza said big investors are also no longer trying to "chase" oil, which he believed could limit the upside of crude prices.He pointed to estimates from other energy forecasters, who have predicted that oil prices could trade as low as $50 a barrel, a decline of about 37% from where Brent crude was trading on Thursday. "I think that oil is destined for much, much lower numbers, and whoever wins the presidency next month is going to have a problem of maybe a little bit of oil deflation. All the balances for 2025 point to more oil than the world really needs, and if you have OPEC+ coming back to the market with some of that production that they cut, I think it's a real problem in 2025," he said.Brent crude was up by about 3.7% on Thursday, while US oil prices 3.6%.

Oil oversupply could send prices tumbling in 2025, energy analyst says 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The price of oil could hit $120 a barrel by early 2025, according to Citi.</li><li>That's according to the bank's bull case, which assumes conflict in the Middle East escalates.</li></ul>Oil prices could soar more than 60% by early next year if conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, according to Citi.The bank said oil prices could go as high as $120 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, implying a 62% increase. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, traded around $73.48 a barrel around midday on Thursday.The forecast is Citi's bull case for oil, which hinges on conflict in the Middle East escalating and sparking disruptions to supply. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-iran-middle-east-upheaval-hurt-harris-campaign-before-election-2024-10">Should Israel retaliate</a> against Iran's recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">missile attack</a>, that could jeopardize key oil production infrastructure in Iran, which could crimp production and put upwards pressure on prices, according to Eric Lee, an energy strategist at the bank."[T]here are a number of scenarios where this could impact a couple million barrels a day of Iran's oil production and exports, and in that case, we could be looking at something more akin to what happened to Russia-Ukraine in 2022," Lee said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJqqSpqwgTE">interview</a> with Yahoo Finance on Wednesday, pointing to the oil-price spike shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. To be sure, the forecast for $120 a barrel marks a stark divergence from Citi's base case, which is for crude prices to stick around $74 a barrel before drifting lower to $60 a barrel later next year. Israel has also said that it would strike at military targets, rather than nuclear or oil facilities, in retaliation against Iran for its missile attack on October 1. Citi's base case implies an 18% decline in oil prices, largely due to the possibility that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other major oil producers could step in if there are supply disruptions, Lee said.Lee estimated that OPEC+ could have around 6 million barrels a day of extra production capacity. Oil demand, meanwhile, has also faced some "issues," he said, pointing to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-ev-oil-demand-natural-gas-tesla-electric-vehicles-goldman-2024-8">China's weakening economy</a>."This is a very tricky situation, a very binary market, if you will, and that's why again we're being tentative on the upside," he said of the bank's forecasts.Other oil forecasters have predicted prices could soar on the back of Middle East escalations, though some say the risks of a supply disruption in Iran are small. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-opec-oil-production-cuts-crude-prices-middle-east-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Oil prices could fall as much as 33%</a>, Saudi Arabia's oil minister said in a recent conference call, adding that he believed OPEC+ producers were pumping too much oil.

Oil prices could soar 62% by early 2025 if the geopolitical situation deteriorates, Citi strategist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's oil revenue has plummeted as global crude prices fall. </li><li>Oil sales dropped to $1.44 billion in the week ending September 8, per data cited by Bloomberg.</li></ul>Russia's oil business has taken a hit, with the nation's crude revenue dropping to its lowest levels in seven months, according to Argus Media data cited by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-10/russia-s-oil-exports-earn-the-least-since-february-as-prices-tumble">Bloomberg</a>.Moscow, which relies on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-west-secondary-sanctions-hitting-oil-exports-payments-revenue-2024-3">crude sales</a> for a big chunk of its revenue, saw the gross value of its oil exports drop to $1.44 billion in the week ending September 8, down from $1.52 billion netted the prior week, the outlet reported. That's the lowest amount Russia has netted from crude exports since January, despite the nation pumping out 40,000 more barrels of oil a day over the last week.The decline has largely been fueled by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-outlook-supply-demand-break-down-record-us-production-2024-9">plunging oil prices</a> as the demand outlook falters amid predictions of a recession in the US, while US producers continue to pump record amounts of crude. <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://oilprice.com">Urals crude</a>, Russia's flagship oil blend, has edged lower to $67.61 a barrel, down around 20% from its peak in the spring of this year.Russia is also selling less oil than it did in the prior years, thanks to weaker demand from its Asian customers and oil pipeline disruptions to Hungary in August. Russia's four-week average sales volume slumped to 3.13 million barrels a day as of September 8, down 30,000 barrels a day from the prior monthly average.Observed Russian crude shipments to Asia, in particular, dropped to an average 2.92 million barrels a day in the month over that time frame, around 10% below the average shipped earlier this year, the report said.Russia is set to make even steeper oil production cuts later in 2024, as part of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-crash-opec-saudi-arabia-us-production-brent-outlook-2023-12">OPEC's goal to boost crude prices</a>. The nation is planning to ramp up production cuts in October and November to make up for producing more than it promised earlier in the year, Russia's Energy Ministry said in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://t.me/s/minenergo_official/3799">post</a> on Telegram, though it didn't clarify how much further it would cut.

Russia's oil revenue has plunged as global crude prices tumble

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks bounced back from Monday's losing session as oil dropped and tech stocks surged.</li><li>Earnings season kicked off Tuesday, and major banks are scheduled to report on Friday.</li></ul>US stocks rebounded on Tuesday after Monday's losses, with momentum revived by a tech rally and falling crude prices.The Magnificent 7 tech cohort led the market higher, with Nvidia at the forefront. The AI chipmaker climbed 4% on Tuesday, while <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock">Meta</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock?miRedirects=1">Tesla</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock">Microsoft</a> all traded more than 1% higher.The surge in oil prices that pressured stocks on Monday, meanwhile, retraced, with international and US crude prices falling more than 4%. Energy traders pulled back on Monday as they continued to await retaliation from Israel over Iran's missile barrage last week, while a disappointing stimulus update in China weighed on the outlook for oil demand. In the US, Wall Street is keeping an eye on the upcoming consumer price index report for September. The inflation data will publish on Thursday, and will inform investors what to expect from the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting in November. Though the market had been anticipating another half-point interest rate cut next month, last Friday's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*qs0pxj*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODM5MTI5Mi43MDAuMS4xNzI4Mzk0MTk5LjUyLjAuMA..&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">big jobs report</a> erased those forecasts. Bank of America expects any upside surprise in the inflation data may keep <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-volatility-cpi-inflation-september-jobs-report-bofa-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">rates higher for longer</a>.At the same time, Fed officials have cited optimistic expectations for rate cuts to continue. On Monday, New York Fed president John Williams told the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/ea0b03d3-47c6-4b33-a6a7-770f5898f24e">Financial Times</a> that a quarter-point cut is a "very good base case."Economists project consumer inflation for September to come in at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.5% in August.Tuesday's session also marked the start of earnings season. In a new report, BofA noted that the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-q3-earnings-lower-rates-stocks-returns-outlook-bofa-2024-10?_gl=1*5idogj*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEyOTQ3LjUyLjAuMA">bar for third-quarter earnings is low</a>, adding that investors will likely reward firms as long as they express confidence about lower rates.Major US financial firms, including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock, report results on Friday.Among Tuesday's notable movers was Roblox, which briefly fell <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/roblox-stock-price-short-seller-hindenburg-report-gaming-inflated-metrics-2024-10?_gl=1*1dndsjr*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDE2ODE3LjYwLjAuMA..">nearly 10% in intraday trading,</a> after short-seller Hindenburg Research took aim at the gaming platform.Meanwhile, China's sharp equity rally <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stock-markets-csi300-golden-week-reopening-bazooka-stimulus-outlook-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">showed signs of slowing down</a>. Beijing's failure to announce new stimulus plans on Tuesday has disappointed investors.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,751.16, up 0.97% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,080.37, up 0.3% (+126.13 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,182.92, up 1.45% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/hurricane-milton-power-outage-florida-electricity-natural-gas-prices-futures-2024-10?_gl=1*13jm4ua*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEyODYyLjYwLjAuMA..">Energy traders bet Hurricane Milton will spark power outages and leave power plants idling in Florida.</a></li><li>Russia's economy can withstand pressure for several more years but will eventually face an<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10"> "unsolvable trilemma," </a>an expert says.</li><li>Rate cuts were supposed to ease mortgage rates. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10">Here's why the opposite happened.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-growth-stimulus-demand-emerging-markets-world-bank-2024-10">China's stimulus won't stop its GDP decline next year</a>, the World Bank says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/carl-icahn-hindenburg-research-short-seller-adani-group-nikola-block-2023-5?_gl=1*mqn88g*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEzMDgzLjQxLjAuMA..#3-draftkings-3">Roblox, DraftKings, or Icahn Enterprises: here are the biggest calls made by short-seller Hindenberg Research.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/meme-coins-bitcoin-inventor-surge-len-sassaman-crypto-hbo-documentary-2024-10?_gl=1*1kl3k6d*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEzMDExLjUwLjAuMA..">Meme coins tied to the identity of bitcoin's inventor have rallied ahead of a new documentary that could reveal their identity</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude sank 4.1% to $73.92 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, tumbled 4.1% to $77.57 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> fell 0.9% to $2,641 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was nearly flat at 4.018%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> dropped by 1.7% to $62,226.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Tech rally leads stocks higher as oil prices plunge and earnings kick off

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks were mostly higher Tuesday morning after closing lower in Monday's session. </li><li>Oil prices slid, while investors shrugged off sluggishness in China stocks. </li></ul>Stock markets opened higher on Tuesday as oil prices dipped, helping investors recover slightly after Monday's losing session. International crude prices fell 3%, with Brent down to $78.50 a barrel. US oil prices were also down 3% to $74.77 a barrel. Traders also appeared to shrug off the sluggishness in Chinese stocks. Though the country's soaring equities have recently stolen the spotlight, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stock-markets-csi300-golden-week-reopening-bazooka-stimulus-outlook-2024-10">rally stumbled</a> on Tuesday after Beijing failed to announce fresh stimulus as many observers had been expecting. Instead, Wall Street is largely focused on earnings and upcoming inflation data, scheduled for release on Thursday. September's consumer price index has regained the spotlight as a factor that could determine whether the Federal Reserve can continue to cut interest rates this year after last month's jobs report was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*qs0pxj*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODM5MTI5Mi43MDAuMS4xNzI4Mzk0MTk5LjUyLjAuMA..">much stronger than expected</a>.Economists project consumer inflation for September to come in at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.5% in August.However, any upside surprise could trigger stock volatility this week, as it could indicate the Fed may have to keep <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-volatility-cpi-inflation-september-jobs-report-bofa-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">interest rates higher for longer</a>, says Bank of America.Meanwhile, Tuesday marked the of the earnings season, kicking with PepsiCo. Shares in the beverage firm fell as the company cut its full-year guidance. Major US financial firms including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock report on Friday. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,716.40, up 0.36% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,915.00, down 0.1% (-42.74 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,016.89, up 0.51% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-stock-market-rally-outlook-bullish-drivers-stimulus-goldman-sachs-2024-10?_gl=1*j3t12y*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODM5MTI5Mi43MDAuMS4xNzI4MzkyNzQxLjQyLjAuMA..">Goldman Sachs is betting that the Chinese equity rally could run up another 20%</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-fed-outlook-recession-economy-stocks-ed-yardeni-2024-10">The Fed won't cut any more this year as the 'phantom recession' is finally dead</a>, Ed Yardeni says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-trader-lost-306-million-according-to-lawsuit-rbc-2024-10?_gl=1*8qe2uw*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODM5MTI5Mi43MDAuMS4xNzI4MzkyODQyLjYuMC4w">A Tesla trader turned $65,000 into $306 million before losing it all, according to a lawsuit.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude slid 3% to $74.77 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 3% to $78.50 a barrel</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was essentially flat at $2,665.5 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose by two basis points at 4.053%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> fell 1.44% to $62,384.53.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes edge up as oil prices ease and traders look to key inflation data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks fell Monday as bond yields and oil prices moved higher.</li><li>The rise in oil prices and solid September jobs report has revived inflation concerns.</li></ul>US stocks retreated from near-record highs on Monday, with all three major moving averages declining by about 1%.A number of risk factors pushed stocks lower on Monday, including a jump in interest rates and oil prices, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-category-five-threatens-florida-fema-funding-2024-10">growing intensity of Hurricane Milton</a>, and negative news flow for a couple of mega-cap technology stocks.The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped back above 4% on Monday, representing its highest level in about two months. Friday's release of the September jobs report sparked the move higher in yields.The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll report showed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">employers added 254,000 jobs</a> last month, crushing estimates of about 150,000. The unemployment rate also declined slightly to 4.1%.Meanwhile, oil prices continued to surge on Monday, rising by about 4% as tensions in the Middle East continued to simmer on the first anniversary of the Hamas-led attack against Israel.The rise in oil prices and the stronger jobs report are fanning fears of a potential rebound in inflation, which would mean fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve."After Friday's strong employment report, the consensus might pivot to 'no rush to ease further' during the fall. We can't rule out 'higher for longer' making a comeback this winter. We are in the none-and-done camp for the rest of this year," Yardeni Research said in a note on Monday.Finally, a Wells Fargo analyst downgrade of Amazon sent that stock lower by about 3%, while Alphabet shares dropped 2% after a judge ordered <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-judge-orders-google-open-up-app-store-competition-2024-10-07/">the company to open its app store to more competition,</a> handing a victory to Epic Games.Investors will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-q3-earnings-preview-investors-themes-ai-interest-rates-2024-10">turn their attention to earnings season, which kicks off this week</a> with results from PepsiCo on Tuesday, followed by the first of the major banks on Friday.Finally, the September CPI report is also due out this Thursday. Economists expect the CPI index to rise 2.3% year-over-year in September, down from 2.5% in August. Bank of America analysts note that an upside surprise in last month's inflation reading has the potential <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-volatility-cpi-inflation-september-jobs-report-bofa-2024-10">to send stocks on a roller coaster this week</a>. Here's where US indexes stood shortly at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,695.94, down 0.96% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,954.24, down 0.94% (-398.51 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,923.90, down 1.18% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-nvda-smci-super-micro-100000-gpu-chips-2024-10">Nvidia stock jumped 4% on Monday after Super Micro Computer said it was shipping more than 100,000 GPUs per quarter.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-september-jobs-report-growth-value-david-kelly-2024-10">JPMorgan's chief strategist told Business Insider why he is feeling "increasingly queasy" about the market.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-trader-lost-306-million-according-to-lawsuit-rbc-2024-10">A Tesla trader turned $65,000 into $306 million before losing it all, according to a lawsuit.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-housing-market-home-prices-falling-austin-dallas-moving-trends-2024-10">Falling home prices and fed-up residents show the Texas housing boom is slowing down.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-outlook-fed-interest-rate-cuts-jobs-report-us-economy-2024-10">Consumer prices are still in focus for investors despite the Fed's recent pivot to the labor market.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-goldman-sachs-boosts-sp500-price-target-again-2024-10">Goldman Sachs increased its year-end S&amp;P 500 price target for the third time this year to 6,000.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude jumped 3.93% to $77.30 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 3.89% to $81.09 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was down 0.18% to $2,663.00 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was higher by 7 basis points at 4.032%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was higher by 0.82% to $63,335.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes drop and yields, oil prices spike ahead of earnings and fresh economic data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil prices plunged to their lowest level since December 2021, with Brent oil falling 4% to $68.99 on Tuesday.</li><li>Supply and demand issues, including a slowdown in China's economy, are pressuring prices.</li></ul>Oil prices plunged on Tuesday to hit their lowest level since December 2021.Prices for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=brent">brent crude, </a>the international benchmark, fell 4% on Tuesday to $68.99 a barrel, representing a significant break below the key $70 support level. Tuesday's decline in Brent oil follows last week's 8% decline in the commodity.A one-two punch of supply and demand issues has pressured oil's 10% year-to-date price decline, with demand concerns taking center stage in recent weeks.A growth scare in early August and lingering concerns of a US recession, combined with the continued slowdown in China's economy, have hurt the demand outlook for oil.In its monthly oil market report, OPEC <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm">cut its outlook</a> for oil demand because of the deceleration in China's economy. It now expects daily demand for oil to grow by roughly 2 million barrels per day in 2024, 80,000 barrels per day lower than its prior forecast.OPEC also cut its 2025 demand outlook for oil by 40,000 barrels per day to 1.7 million barrels.Because of the lower demand expectations and slumping oil prices, OPEC delayed its plans to boost oil production through at least November, but the move probably won't have as much of an impact on the price of oil as it has in the past. That's because the US is producing a record amount of oil, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-oil-production-boom-crude-supply-wti-price-goldman-sachs-2024-7">it's showing no signs of slowing down.</a>America's oil production continues to grow, hitting 13 million barrels per day in August, according to data from YCharts. That's nearly double its oil production levels in 2014.Senior market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation said in an email that investors shouldn't expect a rebound in oil prices anytime soon."The fundamentals should continue to weigh on prices, as supply remains plentiful while the outlook for demand growth remains weak," Morrison said.He added: "Recent experience suggests that crude oil can stay oversold for long periods of time, so this shouldn't imply that a bounce is coming."

Why oil prices have cratered to their lowest level in nearly 3 years

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil prices could surge past $200 a barrel if Iran's oil installations are taken offline, a chief commodities expert said.</li><li>Iran accounts for over 2 million barrels of crude exports per day.</li></ul>Oil prices could roar past $200 a barrel if escalating tensions in the Middle East decimate Iran's crude output, a chief commodities analyst <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/10/03/oil-may-hit-200-if-irans-energy-infrastructure-is-targeted-analyst.html">told CNBC</a>.SEB's Bjarne Schieldrop noted that that Iran accounts for over 2 million barrels of crude and compensate exports per day. He said that if rising conflict in the region were to wipe out Iranian oil infrastructure, that would significantly reduce the OPEC+ coalition's spare oil capacity.That not only means higher prices but amplified market uncertainty, Schieldrop added: "The next question in the market would be, what will happen now in the strait of Hormuz, and that, of course, would then add a significant risk premium to oil."In the $200 per barrel scenario, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> crude, the international benchmark, would gain 161% from its current price.Oil is trading at $76.44 as of 11:20 am ET Thursday. Prices have risen nearly 10% from a bottom on Tuesday, triggered by Iran's major missile attack on Israel. The attack came in response to the Israeli ground offensive into Lebanon. Traders are monitoring for further escalation, with special attention on how Israel might retaliate.Despite the rally, Brent crude still trades around 16% below this year's $91 peak. Other analysts appear aligned with Schieldrop, noting that geopolitical tensions will remain insignificant until investors see oil infrastructure take actual damage."The market is complacent about geopolitical risk. If you don't see barrels going offline, like we saw with Libya recently, the impact doesn't matter much," Rapidan founder Bob McNally told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I87xfAoUbo">CNBC</a>. He added: "I think they're hoping and expecting perhaps Israel will be restrained in its response, and that we won't see a material disruption in the energy production and flows."Still, some investors are betting on the possibility of damaged oil output, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/traders-bet-on-100-a-barrel-oil-as-mideast-risks-escalate">Bloomberg</a> reports. Nearly 27 million barrels of Brent $100 options calls were traded on Wednesday, meaning that traders are hedging against the risk of triple-digit oil prices.Growing tensions between Israel and Iran are not the only factor moving oil prices. In December, the OPEC+ cartel will decide whether to unleash more crude output, undoing some of the production coalition's production curbs.These restrictions were introduced to prop up oil prices, but have cost the alliance market share. Meanwhile, some members haven't stuck with their quotas, drawing the ire of Saudi Arabia, the OPEC leader.Last week, the kingdom warned that Brent could fall as low as <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-opec-oil-production-cuts-crude-prices-middle-east-2024-10?_gl=1*ani1tt*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzk3MDc1NC42ODQuMC4xNzI3OTcwNzU0LjYwLjAuMA..">$50 a barrel</a> if OPEC doesn't reduce outflows, as pledged. Some consider this a veiled threat that Riyadh will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-oil-prices-brent-crude-outlook-opec-production-cuts-2024-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">increase its own output</a> if members don't fall into line.

Oil prices could surge 161% if Middle East conflict wipes out Iran's energy infrastructure, commodity chief says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The AI boom could make oil supply rise and prices fall, Goldman Sachs analysts say.</li><li>AI could boost oil supply via improved logistics and productivity.</li></ul>The artificial intelligence boom could make oil prices fall even as the technology boosts power demand, Goldman Sachs analysts said. The analysts point to AI's improved logistics capabilities and boost to oil recovery, which could increase oil supply and drive down prices in the next decade or so.That forecast stands in contrast to predictions that energy prices will rise as demand for AI requires more power for data centers."The debate on the impact of AI on energy and metals has mostly focused on the demand side given the expected boost to power demand. However, we highlight that AI may eventually weigh on oil prices over the next decade by boosting oil supply through two main channels," the analysts said in a Tuesday research note.The analysts point first to AI's potential to reduce oil production costs by improving logistics and resource allocation.They point to an example of oil rigs in North Dakota, where an oil company's use of AI-driven predictive and automated drilling reduced drilling times by 30%.Assuming a 25% productivity gain, other early AI adopters could save $5 per barrel in costs, the analysts estimate.The analysts say AI could also boost recoverable resources, with a hypothetical 10%-20% jump in recovering US shale, which could increase oil reserves by 8%-20%, or up to 30 billion barrels, they estimate.Those supply gains greatly outweigh any potential boost in demand, the analysts wrote. Even as AI requires more power, that demand likely won't effect oil demand since oil is "scarcely used as a source of energy for power generation today."Instead, power generation demand will likely boost power and natural gas markets, they said. Any AI-related increase in oil demand will likely come from higher incomes, which could raise prices by $2 per barrel, the analysts estimate.But that impact is minimal compared to how much electric vehicle adoption and lower natural gas prices will weigh on oil demand, while oil supply increases via the use of AI."Taken together, we believe that AI would be a modest net negative to oil prices in the medium-to-long term as the negative impact from the cost curve (c.-$5/bbl) - oil's long-term anchor - would outweigh the positive impacts from the demand side (c.+$1-2/bbl)," the analysts wrote.

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