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India's retail inflation is projected to surge to 6.15% in October, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance threshold of 6%, according to a new report by Union Bank of India. The spike is attributed to persistent <keyword id="21013592" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-price-pressures" source="keywords">food price pressures</keyword> and the waning of favorable base effects from the previous year. Earlier this month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also echoed similar sentiments and noted that the inflation print for October 2024 could stay well above 5.5%. This is why, as Das highlighted, cutting interest rates as early as December would be very early and premature The <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) data for October, which will be released at 4 pm on Tuesday, as opposed to the previous practice of releasing this data at 5:30 pm on the 12th of every month, follows September's inflation reading of 5.49%, up from 3.65% in August 2024. The last time inflation breached the RBI's upper limit was in August 2023. Despite the RBI's anticipation of an October inflation "hump," the Union Bank report suggests that the magnitude of the increase might raise concerns, particularly as November's figures are also tracking at elevated levels. The bank maintains its forecast of unchanged interest rates in December's monetary policy meeting, with a modest 50 basis points rate cut cycle predicted to begin in February 2025. Food inflation remains a key driver of price pressures, with vegetables and edible oils leading the recent surge. In September 2024, India's YoY food inflation rate hit 9.24%, up from 5.66% in the month prior. However, the report projects some easing of food inflation in the January-March quarter, citing typical winter price moderation and improving prospects for rabi crops. Despite this, potential risks from food supply disruptions, imported edible oil prices, and the impact of potential trade tariff hikes will exist. The RBI, which aims to maintain retail inflation at 4%, has held the repo rate steady at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive time in its last meeting as part of its inflation containment strategy. A recent SBI report also noted that expecting rate cuts in this quarter would be immature, and easing was possible only during the first half of 2025. "Given the current estimates of FY25 real GDP growth at 7.2% and CPI at 4.50%, the RBI would quite possibly keep policy rates stable over the coming quarter at least. Emerging trends in the growth outlook would possibly determine the timing and extent of any policy easing. With near-term CPI numbers likely to stay elevated, it’s premature to consider expectations of any easing in the December review. "However, high-frequency data do validate a softness in growth data on an incremental basis. Given the anticipated aligning of CPI closer to the target over H2, a shallow easing, if any can be a reasonable possibility over H1 of CY 25", it added.

Retail inflation expected to breach 6% mark in October, says UBI Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as traders took inflation data and the outlook for rates.</li><li>Inflation rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on a yearly basis, in-line with expectations.</li></ul>The latest inflation data dented some of the momentum of the post-election stock rally, with traders focusing on the latest consumer price index reading at its implications for rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up slightly, while the S&amp;P 500 ended the day nearly flat. Bond yields were little changed, with the 10-year Treasury yield up one basis point to 4.449%. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">Inflation was slightly higher</a> year-over-year in October compared to the prior month, but was on par with economists' expectations. Consumer prices rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on an annual basis, higher than last month's 2.4% increase.Investors solidified bets on another rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting. Markets see an 82% chance that the central bank will trim interest rates another quarter-point next month, up from 59% on Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Traders are less certain about another rate cut in January. The odds of another 25 basis point cut at the Fed's January meeting have dropped to 29%, down from 69% a month ago."Inflation data mostly support another rate cut at the Fed's December decision," Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, said in a note. "The Fed will wait until they have more clarity about the timing and scope of policy changes from the next President and Congress before reacting to them.""The Fed wants to avoid the mistakes of the past by prematurely easing and risking a second wave of inflation, so we'd expect the FOMC to take this risk seriously," Jason Pride, the chief of investment strategy &amp; research at Glenmede, said in a note. "This doesn't take a rate cut off the table for December, but it's certainly not a slam dunk."The rally fueled by Trump's election began to stumble, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edging slightly into the red.Crypto markets, though, continued to get a boost after Elon Musk, a close ally of Trump, was appointed as co-head of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dogecoin-price-elon-musk-doge-department-trump-crypto-president-election-2024-11?_gl=1*j5rjww*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUyNDI1NS41NTYuMS4xNzMxNTI0MjY2LjQ5LjAuMA..">Department of Government Efficiency</a>, or "DOGE." <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/doge-usd">Dogecoin</a> spiked another 15% on the news, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">bitcoin</a> rose as much as 6% before paring its gains, surpassing the $90,000 threshold for the first time ever before dipping back below to about $88,000 later in the day. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,985.38, up 0.02%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,958.19, up 0.11% (+47.21 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,230.74, down 0.26%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>Here's what people are betting in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-markets-jake-paul-mike-tyson-bitcoin-trump-2024-11?_gl=1*4l4ww*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUxNTY1NS41NTUuMS4xNzMxNTE4NTU0LjU2LjAuMA..">prediction markets</a> now that the election is over.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-upside-blackwell-rubin-apple-iphone-moment-2024-11">Nvidia is approaching its iPhone moment</a> with its Blackwell chip, and the stock could soar another 25%, an analyst said. </li><li>Trump could push <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-us-debt-levels-government-borrowing-treasury-blackrock-rick-rieder-2024-11">US debt to levels</a> that can't be ignored within his first year in office, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 0.09% to $68.08 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.46% to $71.95 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slipped 0.87% to $2,575.98 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was up one basis point to 4.449%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> slipped to $88,615.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors assess rate outlook after new inflation data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's oil revenue has plummeted as global crude prices fall. </li><li>Oil sales dropped to $1.44 billion in the week ending September 8, per data cited by Bloomberg.</li></ul>Russia's oil business has taken a hit, with the nation's crude revenue dropping to its lowest levels in seven months, according to Argus Media data cited by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-10/russia-s-oil-exports-earn-the-least-since-february-as-prices-tumble">Bloomberg</a>.Moscow, which relies on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-west-secondary-sanctions-hitting-oil-exports-payments-revenue-2024-3">crude sales</a> for a big chunk of its revenue, saw the gross value of its oil exports drop to $1.44 billion in the week ending September 8, down from $1.52 billion netted the prior week, the outlet reported. That's the lowest amount Russia has netted from crude exports since January, despite the nation pumping out 40,000 more barrels of oil a day over the last week.The decline has largely been fueled by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-outlook-supply-demand-break-down-record-us-production-2024-9">plunging oil prices</a> as the demand outlook falters amid predictions of a recession in the US, while US producers continue to pump record amounts of crude. <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://oilprice.com">Urals crude</a>, Russia's flagship oil blend, has edged lower to $67.61 a barrel, down around 20% from its peak in the spring of this year.Russia is also selling less oil than it did in the prior years, thanks to weaker demand from its Asian customers and oil pipeline disruptions to Hungary in August. Russia's four-week average sales volume slumped to 3.13 million barrels a day as of September 8, down 30,000 barrels a day from the prior monthly average.Observed Russian crude shipments to Asia, in particular, dropped to an average 2.92 million barrels a day in the month over that time frame, around 10% below the average shipped earlier this year, the report said.Russia is set to make even steeper oil production cuts later in 2024, as part of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-crash-opec-saudi-arabia-us-production-brent-outlook-2023-12">OPEC's goal to boost crude prices</a>. The nation is planning to ramp up production cuts in October and November to make up for producing more than it promised earlier in the year, Russia's Energy Ministry said in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://t.me/s/minenergo_official/3799">post</a> on Telegram, though it didn't clarify how much further it would cut.

Russia's oil revenue has plunged as global crude prices tumble

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks bounced back from Monday's losing session as oil dropped and tech stocks surged.</li><li>Earnings season kicked off Tuesday, and major banks are scheduled to report on Friday.</li></ul>US stocks rebounded on Tuesday after Monday's losses, with momentum revived by a tech rally and falling crude prices.The Magnificent 7 tech cohort led the market higher, with Nvidia at the forefront. The AI chipmaker climbed 4% on Tuesday, while <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock">Meta</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock?miRedirects=1">Tesla</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock">Microsoft</a> all traded more than 1% higher.The surge in oil prices that pressured stocks on Monday, meanwhile, retraced, with international and US crude prices falling more than 4%. Energy traders pulled back on Monday as they continued to await retaliation from Israel over Iran's missile barrage last week, while a disappointing stimulus update in China weighed on the outlook for oil demand. In the US, Wall Street is keeping an eye on the upcoming consumer price index report for September. The inflation data will publish on Thursday, and will inform investors what to expect from the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting in November. Though the market had been anticipating another half-point interest rate cut next month, last Friday's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*qs0pxj*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODM5MTI5Mi43MDAuMS4xNzI4Mzk0MTk5LjUyLjAuMA..&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">big jobs report</a> erased those forecasts. Bank of America expects any upside surprise in the inflation data may keep <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-volatility-cpi-inflation-september-jobs-report-bofa-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">rates higher for longer</a>.At the same time, Fed officials have cited optimistic expectations for rate cuts to continue. On Monday, New York Fed president John Williams told the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/ea0b03d3-47c6-4b33-a6a7-770f5898f24e">Financial Times</a> that a quarter-point cut is a "very good base case."Economists project consumer inflation for September to come in at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.5% in August.Tuesday's session also marked the start of earnings season. In a new report, BofA noted that the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-q3-earnings-lower-rates-stocks-returns-outlook-bofa-2024-10?_gl=1*5idogj*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEyOTQ3LjUyLjAuMA">bar for third-quarter earnings is low</a>, adding that investors will likely reward firms as long as they express confidence about lower rates.Major US financial firms, including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock, report results on Friday.Among Tuesday's notable movers was Roblox, which briefly fell <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/roblox-stock-price-short-seller-hindenburg-report-gaming-inflated-metrics-2024-10?_gl=1*1dndsjr*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDE2ODE3LjYwLjAuMA..">nearly 10% in intraday trading,</a> after short-seller Hindenburg Research took aim at the gaming platform.Meanwhile, China's sharp equity rally <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stock-markets-csi300-golden-week-reopening-bazooka-stimulus-outlook-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">showed signs of slowing down</a>. Beijing's failure to announce new stimulus plans on Tuesday has disappointed investors.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,751.16, up 0.97% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,080.37, up 0.3% (+126.13 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,182.92, up 1.45% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/hurricane-milton-power-outage-florida-electricity-natural-gas-prices-futures-2024-10?_gl=1*13jm4ua*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEyODYyLjYwLjAuMA..">Energy traders bet Hurricane Milton will spark power outages and leave power plants idling in Florida.</a></li><li>Russia's economy can withstand pressure for several more years but will eventually face an<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10"> "unsolvable trilemma," </a>an expert says.</li><li>Rate cuts were supposed to ease mortgage rates. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10">Here's why the opposite happened.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-growth-stimulus-demand-emerging-markets-world-bank-2024-10">China's stimulus won't stop its GDP decline next year</a>, the World Bank says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/carl-icahn-hindenburg-research-short-seller-adani-group-nikola-block-2023-5?_gl=1*mqn88g*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEzMDgzLjQxLjAuMA..#3-draftkings-3">Roblox, DraftKings, or Icahn Enterprises: here are the biggest calls made by short-seller Hindenberg Research.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/meme-coins-bitcoin-inventor-surge-len-sassaman-crypto-hbo-documentary-2024-10?_gl=1*1kl3k6d*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQxMDMxNi43MDQuMS4xNzI4NDEzMDExLjUwLjAuMA..">Meme coins tied to the identity of bitcoin's inventor have rallied ahead of a new documentary that could reveal their identity</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude sank 4.1% to $73.92 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, tumbled 4.1% to $77.57 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> fell 0.9% to $2,641 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was nearly flat at 4.018%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> dropped by 1.7% to $62,226.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Tech rally leads stocks higher as oil prices plunge and earnings kick off

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks slumped Tuesday amid rising bond yields. </li><li>Investors are adjusting outlooks for interest rate cuts from the Fed. </li></ul>US stocks headed for their second losing session in a row, with major indexes slumping Tuesday morning amid a rise in bond yields. Investors were put off by a steep jump in the US 10-year Treasury yield, which surged 11 basis points on Monday. The key bond yield jumped above 4.2% for the first time since July. Though yields have since steadied at around 4.176%, the rise indicates that traders have pared back hopes for a steep easing cycle from the Federal Reserve. Commentary from Fed officials this week calling for "gradual" and "modest" cuts following a streak of hot economic data triggered investors to rethink their expectations.More commentary will come on Tuesday from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker. Five other officials will speak throughout the week.Investors are also monitoring further earnings releases. Tesla is scheduled to post its third-quarter performance on Wednesday. Boeing is also due to report on Wednesday, while UPS will report results on Thursday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,829.63, down 0.42% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,789.86, down 0.33% (-141.74 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,491.77, down 0.26% </li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-wall-street-bull-bear-predictions-economy-inflation-2024-10?_gl=1*1q5ar1h*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTYwMTkwMC43NTIuMS4xNzI5NjAyODAzLjI5LjAuMA..">Wall Street is divided over the market's fate. Here are the bear and bull cases made by top banks.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-short-seller-block-wont-elon-musk-valuation-2024-10?_gl=1*yjx239*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTYwMTkwMC43NTIuMS4xNzI5NjAyNzcyLjYwLjAuMA..">Why famed short-seller Carson Block won't bet against Tesla</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-prediction-nvda-blackwell-demand-outlook-chips-ai-2024-10?_gl=1*pfaelr*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTYwMTkwMC43NTIuMS4xNzI5NjAyODY4LjU2LjAuMA..">Wall Street keeps raising its price target on Nvidia. Here's why bullishness endures.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-russia-gas-europe-sanctions-ukraine-war-gazprom-2024-10?_gl=1*1n0z5w2*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTYwMTkwMC43NTIuMS4xNzI5NjAyOTA2LjE4LjAuMA..">China is set to become Russia's biggest pipeline gas customer this year.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil was up 0.98% to $71.25 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 0.74% to $74.84 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was higher by 0.49% to $2,752.30 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was essentially flat at 4.176%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> slid 0.82% to $67,078.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes slide and yields rise as rate-cut outlook dims

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil prices plunged to their lowest level since December 2021, with Brent oil falling 4% to $68.99 on Tuesday.</li><li>Supply and demand issues, including a slowdown in China's economy, are pressuring prices.</li></ul>Oil prices plunged on Tuesday to hit their lowest level since December 2021.Prices for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=brent">brent crude, </a>the international benchmark, fell 4% on Tuesday to $68.99 a barrel, representing a significant break below the key $70 support level. Tuesday's decline in Brent oil follows last week's 8% decline in the commodity.A one-two punch of supply and demand issues has pressured oil's 10% year-to-date price decline, with demand concerns taking center stage in recent weeks.A growth scare in early August and lingering concerns of a US recession, combined with the continued slowdown in China's economy, have hurt the demand outlook for oil.In its monthly oil market report, OPEC <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm">cut its outlook</a> for oil demand because of the deceleration in China's economy. It now expects daily demand for oil to grow by roughly 2 million barrels per day in 2024, 80,000 barrels per day lower than its prior forecast.OPEC also cut its 2025 demand outlook for oil by 40,000 barrels per day to 1.7 million barrels.Because of the lower demand expectations and slumping oil prices, OPEC delayed its plans to boost oil production through at least November, but the move probably won't have as much of an impact on the price of oil as it has in the past. That's because the US is producing a record amount of oil, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-oil-production-boom-crude-supply-wti-price-goldman-sachs-2024-7">it's showing no signs of slowing down.</a>America's oil production continues to grow, hitting 13 million barrels per day in August, according to data from YCharts. That's nearly double its oil production levels in 2014.Senior market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation said in an email that investors shouldn't expect a rebound in oil prices anytime soon."The fundamentals should continue to weigh on prices, as supply remains plentiful while the outlook for demand growth remains weak," Morrison said.He added: "Recent experience suggests that crude oil can stay oversold for long periods of time, so this shouldn't imply that a bounce is coming."

Why oil prices have cratered to their lowest level in nearly 3 years

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed as investors looked ahead to the central bank's meeting minutes.</li><li>The release will offer more insight into what the Fed is thinking about monetary policy and inflation.</li></ul>US stocks were mixed early Wednesday as traders looked ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting, which should give further guidance on the path of interest rates for the rest of the year. All three benchmark indexes traded slightly in the red, while bond yields were up slightly. Investors will be parsing through the Fed's latest meeting minutes later on Wednesday, which will give more insight into what central bankers are thinking about the economy and the trajectory of rate cuts this year and beyond. Monetary policy is in focus after an unexpectedly hot job report in September, fueling doubt over whether the Fed will issue another jumbo rate cut this year."The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due, and should be fascinating," Paul Donovan, the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note. "The tone of the Fed minutes should not change expectations of further rate cuts—the Fed is still scrambling to catch up with inflation slowing in the US, and started cutting rates late. But expectations about the pace of easing may be set by the minutes."According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, the Fed is more likely to begin cutting rates in 25-basis-point increments rather than issuing another 50-basis-point rate cut."Even so, we still think the FOMC is putting undue emphasis on the current strength of the economy rather than the direction of travel and the lagged impact of earlier tightening still in the pipeline," economists at the research firm said in a note. "We expect a 25bp easing in November but think a soft run of jobs and activity data in Q4 and Q1 will soon have the Fed scrambling to avoid falling behind the curve."Central bankers will assess another jobs report and the September Consumer Price Index, which will be published Thursday morning, before making their next rate move. The inflation report will be a high-stakes data point for the Fed after the big September payroll report, with markets anxious that officials may have to turn their attention back to prices after pivoting to the labor market at their last meeting. Markets are pricing in an 88% chance the Fed will issue a quarter-point cut, while odds of another jumbo-sized cut have been slashed completely, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.Google parent Alphabet fell 1% in early trading as the US Department of Justice <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205.1052.0_1.pdf">indicated it could break up the tech giant</a>. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,752.93, up 0.06% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,194.38, up 0.27% (+114 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,150.47, down 0.18%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10?_gl=1*i6n3nu*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ3ODgzNS40MjMuMS4xNzI4NDgwNDc4LjMxLjAuMA..">The economy is facing a "no-landing" scenario</a> that could take away some relief from higher interest rates.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10?_gl=1*i6n3nu*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ3ODgzNS40MjMuMS4xNzI4NDgwNDc4LjMxLjAuMA..">Fed rate cuts were expected to push mortgage rates lower</a>, but the opposite has happened.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-q3-earnings-lower-rates-stocks-returns-outlook-bofa-2024-10">The bar for corporate earnings is low</a>. That's good news for stocks, as long as companies are feeling upbeat about rate cuts, according to Bank of America.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 2% to $72.06 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was fell 2% to $75.63 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slipped 0.39% to $2,612.00 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was about flat at 4.041%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> edged lower 0.8% to trade at $61,930.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed with Fed minutes and rate outlook in focus

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Crude oil notched year-to-date highs on Wednesday, driven by inventory updates and Fedspeak. </li><li>In testimony on Wednesday, Jerome Powell said the Fed is still looking to cut rates this year. </li></ul>Crude oil prices spiked on Wednesday following new data signaling smaller growth in crude inventories and after the Federal Reserve chief's latest messaging on rate cuts. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate</a> saw a brief surge of nearly 3.2%, reaching $80.67 per barrel, while intraday trading saw the May <a href="https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/data?marketId=5869843" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brent crude oil</a> futures contract climb by 1.54% to hit $83.3 per barrel.The uptick followed data from the US Energy Information Administration showed energy companies added a smaller amount of crude to inventories than expected last week, signaling higher demand. Gasoline stockpiles, meanwhile, saw a steep drop. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress on Wednesday also helped the demand narrative, as he <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cut-outlook-powell-inflation-data-us-economy-2024-3">reiterated the central bank's plans</a> to cut rates this year. Looser Fed policy could stimulate the economy, increasing demand for oil and energy products, especially if the Fed can pull off a soft landing and avoid a recession. Powell said the Fed is keeping the door open for rate cuts this year, contingent on "greater confidence" in sustainable inflation toward the 2% target.Crude prices have inched up in 2024, thanks to <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-outlook-2024-opec-cuts-us-production-boom-saudi-arabia-2023-12#:~:text=The%20cartel%20has%20vowed%20to,to%20prop%20up%20oil%20prices.">OPEC's daily 2.2 million barrel production cut</a> planned for the first quarter, while the Israel-Hamas war, attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea, and the West's sanctions on Russia's oil trade have kept a floor under the price of oil in 2024. OPEC <a href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7305.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced on Sunday</a> that some member states would extend existing output cuts to June.

Oil prices spike on crude inventory update and Powell's rate-cut outlook

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Brent crude has fallen below a key threshold of $70 per barrel, and analysts expect it to fall further.</li><li>Falling oil prices lessen the odds of a US recession, market veteran Ed Yardeni said.</li></ul>Oil prices are on the retreat, a welcome sight for those anxious about a US downturn.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> crude, the international benchmark, dropped as low as $68.78 a barrel on Tuesday. That puts the commodity at its <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-outlook-supply-demand-break-down-record-us-production-2024-9">lowest level in three years</a>, breaking past a key threshold of $70 per barrel.Although falling prices might spell trouble for oil producers who hinge on the product, it could ease the chances of a US recession, one economist wrote.According to Ed Yardeni, the impact is multi-pronged:First, falling oil prices depreciate the dollar, as fewer greenbacks are necessary to import barrels. As the dollar declines, US exports typically rise.Meanwhile, cheaper energy reduces cost burdens in manufacturing, construction, and agriculture, Yardeni said. It also boosts consumer spending, as Americans are less restricted by prices at the pump."All that reduces the chances of a US recession," the Yardeni Research president said in a note on Wednesday.Some on Wall Street expect the price rout to deepen, going as far as $60 a barrel by 2025.This is a "high conviction" forecast for Citigroup's Max Layton, who told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-09-11/citigroup-s-layton-sees-average-60-oil-price-in-2025-video">Bloomberg</a> that oversupply conditions will continue to dent prices."The market just simply got closer to D-Day, really — to that kind of big surplus that we've been forecasting for some time," the Global Head of Commodities Research said. "I would say the market is trying to send a strong signal to OPEC that there's no room for any more barrels."In its latest monthly report, the cartel <a target="_blank" href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm">cut its outlook</a> on oil demand, as Chinese consumption slows. Daily global demand is now set to grow by 2 million barrels per day this year, or 80,000 barrels less than previously expected.According to Bank of America, China has accounted for roughly 45% of global liquid consumption since 2001. Yet a disappointing post-pandemic recovery — coupled with the rising popularity of electric vehicles in the country — has chipped at this trend.The bank anticipates next year's global oil demand to fall to 1.1 million barrels per day. With more production coming online from non-OPEC countries, BofA expects an oil surplus of 730,000 barrels per day next year.In a note published last week, it expects Brent to trade at $75 per barrel through 2025.

How plunging oil prices could help the US avoid recession

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US oil production hit a record of 13.4 million barrels per day last week.</li><li>The EIA predicts global oil consumption will continue to rise this year.</li></ul>US oil production notched an all-time high of 13.4 million barrels per day last week, according to<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf"> data</a> from the Energy Information Administration.That number is up from 12.6 million barrels each day a year ago, making for an 800,000-barrel increase.The new production record comes just months after the EIA announced in March that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-crude-production-record-opec-cuts-russia-saudi-arabia-2024-3">US produces more crude oil than any other country</a>.US crude prices were up 2.8% on Wednesday at 3:40 p.m. ET, trading at $75.28 a barrel. Both US and international oil prices have dipped in recent weeks as energy traders eye a possible slowdown of the US economy.In its latest <a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/">short-term energy outlook</a>, the EIA said it expects natural gas inventories in the US to reach 3,954 billion cubic feet by the end of October, which is the most natural gas the country has had in storage since 2016.And as US oil production continues to increase, the EIA predicts global consumption will only keep growing (though slightly less than previously predicted, due to slowing economic growth in China that's expected to stall its gas usage).The administration expects that oil prices will rise in the latter half of the year as global oil inventories fall, partly driven by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-oil-exports-drop-sanctions-opec-cuts-tankers-shadow-fleet-2024-7">OPEC+ production cuts</a> enforced on member countries. It expects an annual average Brent crude oil price of $86 per barrel in 2025.Goldman Sachs analysts also say they foresee a recovery for oil prices. "We expect oil prices to recover on solid Western demand and a likely positioning rebound," the analysts said in a note on Tuesday.Oil prices are down about 7.5% from last year as traders adjust their outlook for disruptions stemming <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-today-israel-hamas-cease-fire-blinken-middle-east-2024-4">from geopolitical conflicts</a> in the Middle East, as well as concerns of a slowing US economy.

US oil production just hit a record high 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The IEA downgraded its global oil-demand forecast to 1.2 million barrels a day through the rest of the year. </li><li>The group cited weak OECD deliveries, the end of the post-COVID rebound, and the adoption of EVs. </li></ul>Iran's strikes on Israel over the weekend sparked a fresh wave of fears over oil supply disruptions, but the International Energy Agency foresees a global slump in oil demand amid a host of factors set to weigh on the market through the rest of 2024. The group slashed its forecast by about 100,000 barrels per day to 1.2 million barrels, attributing it to "exceptionally weak OECD deliveries," "the completion of the post-Covid rebound," and an expanding fleet of electric vehicles, according to a <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report released on Friday.</a>With the COVID-19 recovery having run its course, the IEA projects a further slowdown in oil demand expansion to 1.1 million barrels a day in 2025, with most non-OPEC countries driving supply growth thanks to output curbs among OPEC members, while OECD states see their oil consumption decline by 60,000 barrels a day in both 2024 and 2025.The agency's reduced forecast for demand arrives amid simmering tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, which have stirred up concerns of potential <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-today-israel-iran-attack-middle-east-wti-brent-2024-4">supply snags</a> and a further surge in oil prices. Toril Bosoni, head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, said on <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/04/12/iea-surge-of-ev-sales-in-china-and-europe-is-curbing-gasoline-demand.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNBC's "Street Signs Europe"</a> that the surging sales of electric vehicles, particularly in China, Europe, and the United States, are putting a dent in global oil demand."There has been a lot of talk about sales not increasing as much as maybe was expected, but EV sales and increased fuel efficiencies in the car fleet is lowering gasoline demand, at least in advanced economies and particularly in China," she said. Meanwhile, following Iran's attacks against Israel over the weekend, Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-brent-wti-crude-iran-israel-geopolitics-yardeni-2024-4">predicted an 11% spike</a> in Brent crude prices to $100 a barrel, evoking memories of the 1970s energy crises and the ensuing economic turmoil.The IEA's Bosoni said there are numerous pain points she's keeping tabs on in today's oil market, which could potentially lead to "significant outages.""The continued tanker attacks in the Red Sea is of key concern, but also escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, and then we're seeing tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue, with attacks on Russian refineries," she said. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil fell 0.74% to $85.03 per barrel as of Monday 1:30 pm, while <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> was down 0.74% to $89.78 a barrel.

IEA slashes oil demand outlook amid the end of the post-pandemic rebound and expanding EV adoption

Mumbai, The <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> expects the price of the Indian basket of <keyword id="20023856" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crude-oil-imports" source="keywords">crude oil imports</keyword> to be around $85 per barrel going ahead amid geopolitical tensions which have "imparted significant uncertainty" to the outlook. India exports around 85 per cent of its crude requirement, and soaring oil prices which have often crossed the $90 a barrel mark in recent years, tend to drag down the economy. The RBI's monetary policy report released on Friday states that international crude prices exhibited sizeable two-way movements in the second half of 2023-24, falling in October-December 2023 to around $75 per barrel on slowing global demand amidst weak manufacturing activity and easing demand for transportation fuels as well as supply increases from non-OPEC countries. However, amidst intensifying hostilities in the <keyword id="19904316" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="middle-east" source="keywords">Middle East</keyword>, deep output cuts by OPEC plus cartel, and incidents of supply outages, international crude prices moved higher from mid-December reaching an average close to $85 per barrel in March, the report points out. "The spread between global petroleum product prices and crude prices eased from its recent peaks in mid-2022 but remains elevated by historical standards in view of demand-supply refinery mismatches. Taking into account these factors, the baseline assumption for the crude price (Indian basket) is retained at $85 per barrel," the report states. Regarding the outlook for the rupee, the report states that the nominal exchange rate of the Indian currency saw two-way movements in the range of Rs 82.8-83.4 per US dollar in the second half of 2023-24. Taking into consideration the uncertainty around US dollar movements, the ebbs and flows of global capital flows and international crude oil prices, the baseline assumption for the exchange rate is revised to Rs 83 per US dollar. It also sees as a positive factor in the global growth forecast for 2024 being revised upwards by 20 bps to 3.1 per cent by the <keyword id="19916590" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="international-monetary-fund" source="keywords">International Monetary Fund</keyword> (IMF) in its January 2024 update of the <keyword id="20389978" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-economic-outlook" source="keywords">World Economic Outlook</keyword> (WEO) from its October 2023 projection. Global economic growth is expected to increase marginally to 3.2 per cent in 2025 and global trade growth (goods and services combined) is projected to accelerate from 0.4 per cent in 2023 to 3.3 per cent in 2024 and further to 3.6 per cent in 2025. However, the headwinds from protracted geopolitical tensions and increasing disruptions in trade routes pose risks to India's growth outlook, according to the report. Taking all these factors into consideration, India's real GDP growth for 2024-25, is projected at 7.0 per cent, with Q1 at 7.1 per cent; Q2 at 6.9 per cent; Q3 at 7.0 per cent; and Q4 also at 7.0 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced, the report adds.

RBI sees price of India's crude oil imports at $85 a barrel in FY25

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Supply in the oil market is about to get way tighter, according to RBC's Helima Croft.</li><li>The outlook for US oil production has been slashed in half, Croft told CNBC.</li></ul>The world's oil supply is about to get way tighter and send crude prices climbing, according to commodities expert Helima Croft.The global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets pointed to signs that <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-outlook-brent-crude-prices-forecast-production-supply-demand-occidental-2024-2">supply-demand imbalance</a> in oil markets could soon tip in the other direction, as the world's crude production is poised to slow. That could cause Brent crude, the international benchmark, to hit $85 in the second half of 2024, Croft predicted.The US, which saw a "blockbuster" year for <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-production-record-brent-crude-prices-opec-russia-saudi-2023-12">oil production in 2023</a>, isn't likely to churn out crude at the same speed it did last year. US production growth could crater in half from 1 million to just 500,000 barrels a day this year, Croft predicted, citing her conversations with other oil market watchers at the recent International Energy Week conference."It's not that we're saying … US production is not going to grow," Croft said in an interview with <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogLgzanCzTs&amp;ab_channel=CNBCTelevision" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNBC</a> on Monday. "It's just a question about, were the gains that we saw last year due to particular unique circumstances that are not going to be replicated this year."The same also applies to major oil producers like <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-market-guyana-economy-crude-production-outlook-opec-price-cuts-2023-12">Guyana</a>, who may not be able to replicate their monster oil boom in 2023.Meanwhile, conflict in the Middle East is also posing a major risk to the world's oil supply. If the Israel-Hamas spreads to Lebanon, that would be a "red line" for Iran, Croft said, one of the largest oil producers in the world."So I do think we can't write off Middle East supply disruption risk yet," she added.OPEC+ is also looking to continue its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/surprise-oil-cutbacks-send-prices-soaring-30-year-oil-expert-2023-11">aggressive production cuts</a>. Members of the oil cartel said they would extend the group's 2.2 million barrel-a-day production cut through June. Saudi Arabia, the oil cartel's de facto leader, will continue its voluntary production cut of a million barrels a day, while Russia will cut production an extra 471,000 barrels a day.Announcement of those cuts has already caused oil prices to tick higer. Brent crude traded around $82 a barrel on Monday, up around 8% from its levels at the start of the year."I do think sentiment is starting to turn, but again, we're not seeing yet the runaway path to a hundred [dollars a barrel]," Croft added. At the same time, the world's oil demand is rising, and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-production-outlook-demand-opec-india-china-crude-peak-2024-2">could peak around 1.2 million barrels a day in 2028</a>, the IEA estimated. That could mean the oil market will see a shortage as soon as 2025, Occidental's CEO Vicki Hollub recently warned.

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