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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump has said he plans to bring down gas prices by boosting US oil production.</li><li>ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods doesn't see a US oil boom in the near future.</li></ul>President-elect Donald Trump's promise to unleash a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">big oil boom</a> in the US and lower gas prices is running up against a market reality: The world is already awash in fossil fuels. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.semafor.com/article/11/12/2024/exxon-ceo-darren-woods-donald-trump-shouldnt-scrap-methane-regulations">Semafor</a> on November 12 that while he wants to maintain US oil production at its current highs, the market is already well supplied. "I don't think today that production in the US is constrained," he said. "I don't know that there's an opportunity to unleash a lot of production in the near term." During the presidential campaign, Trump said that he planned to lower energy prices — including the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/us/politics/trump-economics-gas-tariffs-inflation.html">cost of gas</a> — by increasing US oil production. "We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill," Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.factcheck.org/2024/10/the-issues-trumps-proposal-to-lower-prices-by-increasing-energy-production/">said</a> in October. "I will cut your energy prices in half within 12 months." In September, Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/us/politics/trump-economics-gas-tariffs-inflation.html">said</a> he would reduce gas prices to below $2 a gallon. Energy analysts told Business Insider that big oil companies are more focused on returning money to shareholders than investing in projects that boost production, especially because China isn't importing as much oil due to its economic downturn. Their comments underscore how little control a US president has over the oil and gas market, including prices at the pump. "It's a global market," Ben Cahill, director of energy markets and policy at the University of Texas at Austin, told BI. "There's very little any president can do to change the direction of oil or gasoline prices." Cahill added that he expects the US to increase oil production, but it will happen gradually. The US is already producing record amounts of oil, at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545">12.9 million barrels of crude a day in 2023</a> compared with about 11 million barrels per day in 2020, when Trump was in office. Last year, the US also became the world's biggest exporter of natural gas. In October, the US Energy Information Administration <a target="_blank" href="https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/us-eia-expects-domestic-crude-oil-production-reach-135-mbd-2025.html#:~:text=At%20a%20global%20scale%2C%20the,13.5%20mb%2Fd%20in%202025.">projected</a> that the US would produce 13.5million barrels a day in 2025, hitting another record. And there is room for the industry to expand. Woods <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/01/exxon-ceo-says-us-election-wont-affect-oil-production.html">told</a> CNBC earlier this month that there are areas in the Gulf of Mexico — where federal leasing hasn't allowed companies to drill — that could be a source of additional oil production in the long term. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told BI that Trump could take some steps to try to boost US oil production, including easing regulations to open up additional places for companies to drill and working with OPEC. However, he said boosting oil production while keeping prices at a desired level is a "delicate balance" for the industry. "If oil prices drop, you're likely to see a natural decline in US oil production over the long run," he said, adding, "Oil companies have shareholders to be accountable to." In recent years, the US has increased oil production even as President Joe Biden imposed stricter limits on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, oil and gas infrastructure, and gas-powered vehicles to help slow the climate crisis. In a separate interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/exxon-says-trump-should-keep-u-s-in-paris-climate-pact-3d8de471">The Wall Street Journal</a>, Woods added that the US shouldn't drop out of the Paris Agreement as Trump did in his first term and has promised to do again. The nearly 200 countries signed onto that agreement <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-strike-historic-climate-dealfossil-fuels-dubai-2023-12">struck a deal last year at the UN climate summit </a>to move away from fossil fuels this decade and the triple renewable energy by 2030. Woods told Semafor that he supports Biden's limits on methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. Exxon and other US oil majors have goals to reduce emissions, but climate scientists warn<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exxon-chevron-investors-reject-climate-change-proposals-2023-6">they aren't aggressive enough</a> to avert catastrophic levels of global warming.

Trump said he'll unleash an oil boom. Exxon Mobil CEO says not so fast.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's presidency may pressure Russia's oil and gas industry.</li><li>The EU is thinking about replacing Russian LNG with US shipments, potentially affecting trade dynamics.</li></ul>Russia's lucrative oil and gas industry could come under greater pressure when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office.Domestically, Trump is championing the US oil and gas industry and encouraging production — which is likely to underscore America's position as an oil and gas giant.Meanwhile, the European Union said it could consider buying more US liquefied natural gas in a deal with Trump that would address a trade deficit. The EU doesn't have to burn bridges to negotiate with Trump, because the bloc still imports LNG from Russia."We still get a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters on Friday."It's something where we can get into a discussion," she said, referring to US's trade deficit with the eurozone, which reached <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union">$131.3 billion in 2022.</a>To be sure, it's ultimately up to EU importers to decide where to import energy supplies based on market conditions.However, at least one EU country — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/d23591fc-0463-4346-865c-0e851a256ed2">Belgium</a> — is calling on the bloc to ban Russian LNG imports to further squeeze Moscow's war chest.The EU — which previously relied on Russian energy — banned seaborne Russian crude imports and refined petroleum products following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.The EU has also cut most of its piped natural gas imports from Russia, replacing much of it with LNG from the US — which is now a top exporter of the fuel to Europe, accounting for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/carbon-management-and-fossil-fuels/liquefied-natural-gas_en">46% of the bloc's supply in 2023.</a>Russia accounts for 8% of the EU's LNG imports. Other major LNG exporters to the EU include Qatar and Algeria."It would be in the interest of the US that Europe continues to shun Russian fossil fuels, given the US oil and gas industry has been one of the key beneficiaries of this move," wrote Warren Patterson, the head of commodities strategy at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/what-a-trump-presidency-means-for-oil-and-gas-markets/">ING,</a> on Friday.<h2 id="e98e057f-427c-49fe-80b4-6b3536753369">'Drill, baby, drill'</h2>Trump's victory could shake up the highly politicized energy industry as he has made it clear that he supports oil production."I make this pledge to the great people of America: I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates, and lower the cost of energy," Trump said in his Republican National Convention speech in July."We will drill, baby, drill," Trump said.While Trump's pledges to loosen energy regulations in the US are seen as a boost to the industry, it could increase oil supplies — a negative for prices.For consumers, lower energy prices translate to lower pump prices and electricity bills.However, it would also pressure energy company profits and, in turn, discourage more production — which is at record levels in the US.But there could also be other moving parts in Trump's second term, including potential sanctions on oil supplies from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia — all of which could tighten global supplies and support prices.Even before Trump's second election, there are so many uncertainties surrounding the geopolitical economy of energy that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/major-oil-producers-saudi-arabia-russia-diversify-economies-opec-shale-2024-10">Saudi Arabia and Russia,</a> two of the largest oil producers, are trying to diversify their economies.In the meantime, the broad energy market is taking a wait-and-see stance."Initial market reactions have been muted to Trump's election victory, but in the medium term, he is expected to reinforce the US' role as a leading oil and LNG exporter," wrote Kaushal Ramesh, the head of gas and LNG analytics at Rystad Energy research firm on Monday.

Russia's lucrative oil and oil industry is an easy target for Europe after Trump's election victory

The <keyword id="19949639" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rupee" source="keywords">rupee</keyword> depreciated 12 paise to 83.56 against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword> in early trade on Tuesday, weighed down by the strengthening of the American currency in the overseas markets and elevated <keyword id="20024983" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crude-oil-prices" source="keywords">crude oil prices</keyword>. <keyword id="20024982" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forex-traders" source="keywords">Forex traders</keyword> said <keyword id="21356063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-importers" source="keywords">oil importers</keyword> and <keyword id="20015748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-portfolio-investors" source="keywords">foreign portfolio investors</keyword> (FPIs) bought US dollars amid rising US yields, and this dragged down the local unit. At the <keyword id="20520118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interbank-foreign-exchange-market" source="keywords">interbank foreign exchange market</keyword>, the rupee opened at 83.51 and lost further ground to trade at 83.56 against the greenback in initial deals, registering a fall of 12 paise from its previous closing level. On Monday, the rupee depreciated 10 paise to settle at 83.44 against the US dollar. The rupee had dollar inflows and rose to 83.37 on Monday, but was sold-off to 83.44 levels, as oil and FPIs bought dollars looking at rising US yields, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director <keyword id="21083675" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="finrex-treasury" source="keywords">Finrex Treasury</keyword> Advisors LLP. On Tuesday, rupee is likely to touch 83.55 before cooling off to 83.45, Bhansali said, adding that the narrow range for the day could be 83.40 to 83.55. Meanwhile, the <keyword id="19976503" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dollar-index" source="keywords">dollar index</keyword>, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.91, higher by 0.02 per cent, following a surge in US treasury yields as investors contemplated a second Trump US presidency. <keyword id="19969325" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Brent-crude-futures" source="keywords">Brent crude futures</keyword>, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.22 per cent to USD 86.80 per barrel. In the domestic equity market, benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, touched lifetime high levels in early trade. However, the indices pared the initial gains and were trading in the negative territory. The BSE Sensex was down 64.46 points, or 0.08 per cent, to 79,411.73 points. The broader NSE Nifty fell 25.55 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 24,116.40 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 426.03 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee falls 12 paise to 83.56 against US dollar in early trade

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's oil revenue fell sharply year-over-year in October.</li><li>Oil-related tax revenue dropped 29% last month, while oil and gas proceeds fell more than 25%.</li></ul>Russia saw a double-digit drop in oil revenue last month, hitting an important source of funds for the Kremlin amid pressure on global crude prices. Moscow's revenue from oil-related taxes plummeted 29% year-over-year in October, from 1.48 trillion rubles to 1.05 trillion rubles, according to data from Russia's Finance Ministry. Oil and gas proceeds, which is largely made up of oil production taxes and profit-based taxes in the industry, also fell more than 25% to 1.21 trillion rubles.Total oil and gas revenue rose on a monthly basis, with October levels up more than 75% compared to September. However, that's largely because the profit-based tax on Russia's oil industry is due four times a year, with companies paying taxes in March, April, July, and October, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-05/kremlin-oil-revenue-shrank-by-29-in-october-amid-lower-prices">Bloomberg reported</a>.The yearly drop has largely been fueled by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-oil-war-revenue-crude-prices-opec-production-cut-2024-9">falling crude prices</a>. International crude prices logged their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-today-israel-strike-iran-production-brent-wti-crude-2024-10">biggest drop in two years</a> last month after Israel's strike against Iran spared its oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11">US producers are pumping more than ever</a>, complicating efforts by OPEC+ to crimp supply and boost the price. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded around $75 a barrel on Tuesday, down 11% over the last year. Meanwhile, Urals crude, Russia's flagship oil blend, traded around $63.57, down around 24% compared to the same time last year, Bloomberg data shows.The drop in oil revenue throttles a key source of funds for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-outlook-moscow-sanctions-west-firms-uchicago-2024-10">Russia's war-driven economy</a>, which is becoming increasingly strained under the rising costs of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia's oil and gas industries have accounted for around 30%-50% of Russia's federal budget revenue for the last decade, according to an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/follow-the-money-understanding-russias-oil-and-gas-revenues/">analysis</a> from The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Russia's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10">defense state spending</a>, meanwhile, is on track to hit a post-Soviet high in 2025.

Russia's oil revenue plummeted 29% in October amid volatile global crude prices

Mumbai, The <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> expects the price of the Indian basket of <keyword id="20023856" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crude-oil-imports" source="keywords">crude oil imports</keyword> to be around $85 per barrel going ahead amid geopolitical tensions which have "imparted significant uncertainty" to the outlook. India exports around 85 per cent of its crude requirement, and soaring oil prices which have often crossed the $90 a barrel mark in recent years, tend to drag down the economy. The RBI's monetary policy report released on Friday states that international crude prices exhibited sizeable two-way movements in the second half of 2023-24, falling in October-December 2023 to around $75 per barrel on slowing global demand amidst weak manufacturing activity and easing demand for transportation fuels as well as supply increases from non-OPEC countries. However, amidst intensifying hostilities in the <keyword id="19904316" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="middle-east" source="keywords">Middle East</keyword>, deep output cuts by OPEC plus cartel, and incidents of supply outages, international crude prices moved higher from mid-December reaching an average close to $85 per barrel in March, the report points out. "The spread between global petroleum product prices and crude prices eased from its recent peaks in mid-2022 but remains elevated by historical standards in view of demand-supply refinery mismatches. Taking into account these factors, the baseline assumption for the crude price (Indian basket) is retained at $85 per barrel," the report states. Regarding the outlook for the rupee, the report states that the nominal exchange rate of the Indian currency saw two-way movements in the range of Rs 82.8-83.4 per US dollar in the second half of 2023-24. Taking into consideration the uncertainty around US dollar movements, the ebbs and flows of global capital flows and international crude oil prices, the baseline assumption for the exchange rate is revised to Rs 83 per US dollar. It also sees as a positive factor in the global growth forecast for 2024 being revised upwards by 20 bps to 3.1 per cent by the <keyword id="19916590" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="international-monetary-fund" source="keywords">International Monetary Fund</keyword> (IMF) in its January 2024 update of the <keyword id="20389978" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-economic-outlook" source="keywords">World Economic Outlook</keyword> (WEO) from its October 2023 projection. Global economic growth is expected to increase marginally to 3.2 per cent in 2025 and global trade growth (goods and services combined) is projected to accelerate from 0.4 per cent in 2023 to 3.3 per cent in 2024 and further to 3.6 per cent in 2025. However, the headwinds from protracted geopolitical tensions and increasing disruptions in trade routes pose risks to India's growth outlook, according to the report. Taking all these factors into consideration, India's real GDP growth for 2024-25, is projected at 7.0 per cent, with Q1 at 7.1 per cent; Q2 at 6.9 per cent; Q3 at 7.0 per cent; and Q4 also at 7.0 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced, the report adds.

RBI sees price of India's crude oil imports at $85 a barrel in FY25

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil prices ended down 7% last week and are lower this year-to-date, despite Middle East tensions.</li><li>China's economic downturn, the US shale boom, and clean energy are contributing to current oil price trends.</li></ul>The oil markets aren't what they used to be, and two of the world's biggest producers of the commodity are feeling the pressure.Oil prices have been depressed this year because <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-price-today-middle-east-israel-hezbollah-conflict-china-economy-2024-10">China</a> — the world's largest oil importer — is in a prolonged economic downturn. The US' massive boom in oil production over the last 15 years has also kept prices low.Now, Saudi Arabia and Russia are both trying to diversify their economies away from energy, which makes up about 40% and 20% of their GDP, respectively.With the shift, Saudi Arabia and Russia are trying to create new economic engines that can sustain the country for decades, Abishur Prakash, the founder of The Geopolitical Business, a strategy advisory firm in Toronto, told Business Insider.The existential reorientation comes amid what Prakash terms a "geopolitical misalignment," even in the face of a potential supply disruption."The reality is that Middle Eastern oil supplies are in the bull's-eye of geopolitics. A potential back-and-forth between Israel and Iran, which is increasingly likely, will draw in the region's energy ecosystem," he said.But this year, markets have largely shrugged off supply concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict — a break from history, when regional problems sent prices higher.<h2 id="45bcbf13-524d-48a5-aa00-144efa7dd75c">Moving away from oil</h2><a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&amp;t=6.">Saudi Arabia and Russia</a> tied for the world's second-largest oil producer after the US. Last year, they each accounted for 11% of the world's oil supply.While Saudi Arabia and Russia are still the world's top oil exporters, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61584">US — which posted record oil shipments in 2023 — is fast becoming a competitor</a> for market share.In 2016, Saudi Arabia launched a grand <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vision-2030-saudi-arabia-plan-future-proof-oil-economy-2023-8">Vision 2030</a> plan to transform its oil-dependent economy into a more diversified one that includes tourism and sports as key growth pillars.Recently, the kingdom has been indicating that it's frustrated with low oil prices. It's giving up its $100 per barrel price target and is ready to increase oil output, the <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd">Financial Times</a> reported in late September.This means that Saudi Arabia is looking to corner a larger market share instead of targeting higher profit margins by restricting output.Russia has also expressed a desire to stop over-relying on oil exports."We are moving towards reducing the share of volatile income and reducing Russia's dependence on oil and gas in favor of boosting our domestic economy," Anton Siluanov, Russia's finance minister, told <a target="_blank" href="https://russian.rt.com/business/article/1379636-minfin-anton-siluanov-intervyu">RT Television's Arabic</a> service earlier this month.He said that Russia would instead aim to boost its domestic economy but did not specify how.Russia is already moving its trade eastward to address Western sanctions. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.energyintel.com/00000192-ae46-dc01-adba-efff87000000">Saudi Arabia,</a> too, is looking to sell more oil to developing countries, whose electric vehicle adoption lags behind China and the West.Asia's emerging economies are expected to drive <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/global-oil-demand-prices-supply-opec-us-crude-producers-iea-2024-6">global oil demand</a> over the rest of the decade, as the world's consumption rises from 101.7 million barrels a day in 2023 to 105.6 million barrels per day by 2030, according to a June report from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.iea.org/news/slowing-demand-growth-and-surging-supply-put-global-oil-markets-on-course-for-major-surplus-this-decade">International Energy Agency</a>.<h2 id="6ae61431-8898-4c52-9abf-24b4a2055996">Prices, renewable energy, and the US all play a role</h2>Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over fears of a widening war, oil prices haven't been on the climb.To be sure, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-prediction-brent-crude-israel-iran-opec-demand-citi-2024-10">oil prices could still</a> soar if the issues in the Middle East worsen.And there were several price spikes — such as in early October over concerns that Iranian oil facilities could be hit and in August over tensions in the Middle East — but they were shortlived. Oil prices dropped about 7% last week after the concerns subsided.International benchmark <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent</a> crude futures are down about 4% this year to date to around $74 a barrel, and US <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate</a> futures are down 1.3% so far this year to around $70 a barrel.A key contributor to the price trend comes from the US, which has witnessed a significant rise in oil production over the last 15 years following the shale oil boom.Matthew Huber, a Syracuse University professor who specializes in energy, climate politics, and resource geography, said the US has nudged Saudi Arabia out of its role as a swing producer."I think the US has now overtaken this role and because we're not in the Middle East, geopolitical conflict there is less impactful," Huber added.Then there's renewable energy."The explosion of electric vehicle adoption in China (and presumably or eventually in the US and Europe) means the writing is on the wall and we're going to reach 'peak demand' for oil sometime soon," said Huber. "It was always a good idea to diversify one's economy away from just oil but now more than ever."<h2 id="f0b0eb00-b6b7-4f2f-9acd-d2d555ca6010">The role of OPEC</h2>The changing dynamics of oil also sharpens the long-standing question of OPEC's influence and relevance. The oil producer group led by Saudi Arabia accounts for about 30% of global crude production."It goes in cycles. They were obviously relevant in the 1970s when they were able to increase prices almost single-handedly," said Huber."But the problem is when oil prices spike, it sends oil companies searching for temporarily profitable oil," he added, referring to the US shale boom as the most recent example.OPEC also faces rifts within its members, who have competing priorities."The big question now is whether OPEC members are all aligned in terms of oil targets," said The Geopolitical Business's Prakash, who added that not all OPEC members may be on board with Saudi Arabia's plan to boost production.A potential Trump presidency in the US could drive <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-trump-win-election-financials-energy-rbc-2024-10">domestic oil and gas production.</a>"If OPEC can't bring everybody together, and members go their separate ways, it will lead to a further polarization of the Middle East," said Prakash."Instead of energy bringing the region together, like it did in the past, energy coupled with geopolitics could fragment the Middle East," he said.

2 of the world's biggest oil producers are looking for new ways to power their economies

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Both presidential campaigns have discussed ideas for cutting housing costs.</li><li>JD Vance says a Trump administration would build more homes in part by lowering energy costs.</li></ul>As rising home prices and rents squeeze households across the country, the presidential candidates are weighing in on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2024-06-18-The-U-S-is-now-short-4-5-million-homes-as-the-housing-deficit-grows">housing shortage</a>.Former President Donald Trump doesn't list housing among the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/platform">top 20 priorities</a> on his campaign website, but he and his running mate have argued that some of their top agenda items — including deporting millions of immigrants — would bring down housing costs.In that spirit, Sen. JD Vance recently promised that a future Trump administration would build millions of homes in part by making energy cheaper. "We're going to drill, baby, drill, lower energy costs, and that's going to make it easier to build homes," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pPCCh_t4h8">he said</a> during an October campaign stop in Nevada.Housing policy experts and economists disagree, saying lower energy costs would not significantly boost construction or make homes cheaper.The cost of new housing is largely determined by the availability of workers, the prices of building materials, and government regulations that limit construction. Other policies Trump has promised to enact — including hiking tariffs on a slew of foreign imports and deporting millions of immigrants — are expected to inflate housing costs by increasing the cost of key materials and worsening the labor shortage.A spokesperson for Vance didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.<h2 id="1a82d7c2-a275-42fb-a86a-4ae9f17818b1">Building materials and tariffs outweigh cheaper oil</h2>Economists say that lower electricity costs and diesel fuel prices would make certain goods and services needed to build housing somewhat cheaper. But they wouldn't dent the most significant input costs related to building, which are labor and building materials."I'm not saying it's immaterial," Anirban Basu, chief economist at the construction industry trade group Associated Builders and Contractors, told Business Insider. "Energy prices are significant, but they're not as significant as many other inputs."The prices of key building materials, including lumber and structural steel, are much more consequential. "When softwood lumber prices took off during the pandemic, it really impacted apartment construction and single-family home building," Basu said.Notably, under the Biden administration, the US has produced and exported <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545">more crude oil than ever before</a> in the country's history, even as housing costs have soared.Tariffs imposed by both the Trump and Biden administrations on goods like Canadian lumber aren't helping, Andrew Justus, a housing policy analyst at the Niskanen Center, a nonpartisan think tank, told Business Insider. And Trump has promised to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/trump-tariffs">dramatically hike tariffs</a> if he's elected."When you think about what is specifically within the government's purview, as far as bringing down costs for building homes, one of the easiest things they could do is reduce the extra tax that they levy on the most basic of building materials," Justus said.<h2 id="49b4842e-9770-4c1e-a378-22cc2018c301">Labor costs and cutting red tape are also key</h2>Labor costs are generally growing as a portion of overall construction costs, Basu said. This is largely a result of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-crisis-national-shortage-construction-workers-job-demand-2024-5">national construction worker shortage</a>, particularly among skilled workers, and lagging productivity in the industry. While labor productivity has improved in most sectors of the economy over the last half-century, US construction productivity <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.economist.com/business/2017/08/19/efficiency-eludes-the-construction-industry">has declined</a>."If you look at a typical construction job site, it does not look that different from what it might've looked like five or six decades ago," Basu said.Vance has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-said-migrants-to-blame-for-expensive-homes-wrong-2024-8">also said</a> that Trump's plan to deport millions of immigrants would lower demand for housing and, thereby, slow rising home prices and rents. But economists say immigration isn't a major reason for higher housing costs, and because such a large portion of construction workers are immigrants, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/11/business/economy/trump-housing-crisis-deportations.html">mass deportations would slow home construction and push prices up.</a>"We just don't have the supply of construction labor that we need, and any sort of dramatic reduction in our labor would just make that even worse," Nolan Gray, a city planner and research director for California YIMBY, told Business Insider.But the biggest obstacle to improving housing affordability is local and state regulation. Land-use laws that block denser forms of housing like duplexes or apartment buildings in favor of detached single-family homes make it harder to build cheaper housing."A lot of these suboptimal outcomes come from very poor zoning decisions which tend to favor downzoning of properties, as opposed to embracing density," Basu said.The Trump campaign has said it will cut regulations that stymie building, with Vance saying they'll "stop the ridiculous regulations that make it harder for our construction companies and our workers to build homes" at the Nevada campaign stop.But the campaign hasn't released detailed plans — and when Trump was president, he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/us/politics/trump-suburbs-housing-white-voters.html">pushed to protect single-family zoning</a>, which keeps housing more expensive. And while Vice President Kamala Harris has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-kamala-harris-plans-to-build-3-million-new-homes-2024-8">put forward plans</a> to incentivize deregulation as part of her more explicit housing agenda, most land-use and building regulations are controlled by state and local governments.

JD Vance says pumping more oil will make housing cheaper. Economists say that's a stretch.

India's merchandise <keyword id="35090" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports" source="Orion">exports</keyword> slipped by 2.83 per cent to USD 33.90 billion in November while the <keyword id="113688" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trade-deficit" source="Orion">trade deficit</keyword> narrowed to USD 20.58 billion, according to government data. <keyword id="35091" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="imports" source="Orion">Imports</keyword> also fell by 4.33 per cent to USD 54.48 billion in November, the data released by the commerce ministry on Friday showed. Cumulatively, the country's merchandise exports in April-November FY2023-24 contracted by 6.51 per cent to USD 278.8 billion. Imports were also down by 8.67 per cent to USD 445.15 billion in the eight-month period due to a fall in <keyword id="522549" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-imports" source="Orion">oil imports</keyword>. Oil imports dipped to USD 113.65 billion as against USD 139.29 billion in April-November 2022-23. The trade deficit - difference between imports and exports - during the eight-month period was USD 166.35 billion against USD 189.21 billion in the corresponding period last year. Briefing reporters here, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said that given the global situation, India's export numbers are good. All key export sectors have recorded negative growth during the April-November period of this fiscal and that include petroleum products, <keyword id="44517" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gems" source="Orion">gems</keyword> and jewellery, chemicals, garments, and engineering goods. Sectors which registered positive growth include electronics, iron ore, and pharma. The other import segments whose inbound shipments are contracted include coal, coke; pearls, precious and semi-precious stones; and fertiliser. However, gold imports increased by 21 per cent to USD 32.93 billion. Electronic goods' imports have risen to USD 57.83 billion during April-November 2023-24 against USD 51.89 billion in the same period last year. The gold imports in November rose by 6.24 per cent to USD 3.44 billion. Oil imports during the month, however, dipped by 8.47 per cent to USD 14.93 billion. Barthwal said the global trade is suffering but, "we are holding the fort". He added that GDP growth of many countries are "not so high", interest rate regime is not softening, global conflicts are aggravating, irrespective of these issues, "we are doing well". Exports in October had grew by 6.21 per cent. According to the data, the estimated value of services export for November is USD 28.69 billion, as compared to USD 26.93 billion in November 2022. During the eight-month period, these exports stood at USD 220.66 billion as compared to USD 208.30 billion in April-November 2022. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has forecast that global trade will grow only by 0.8 per cent in 2023. According to UNCTAD report, global trade expected to shrink by nearly 5 per cent in 2023 amid geopolitical strains and shifting trade patterns.

India's exports dip 2.83% to $33.9 bn in Nov; trade deficit narrows to $20.58 bn: Govt data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Brent crude has fallen below a key threshold of $70 per barrel, and analysts expect it to fall further.</li><li>Falling oil prices lessen the odds of a US recession, market veteran Ed Yardeni said.</li></ul>Oil prices are on the retreat, a welcome sight for those anxious about a US downturn.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> crude, the international benchmark, dropped as low as $68.78 a barrel on Tuesday. That puts the commodity at its <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-outlook-supply-demand-break-down-record-us-production-2024-9">lowest level in three years</a>, breaking past a key threshold of $70 per barrel.Although falling prices might spell trouble for oil producers who hinge on the product, it could ease the chances of a US recession, one economist wrote.According to Ed Yardeni, the impact is multi-pronged:First, falling oil prices depreciate the dollar, as fewer greenbacks are necessary to import barrels. As the dollar declines, US exports typically rise.Meanwhile, cheaper energy reduces cost burdens in manufacturing, construction, and agriculture, Yardeni said. It also boosts consumer spending, as Americans are less restricted by prices at the pump."All that reduces the chances of a US recession," the Yardeni Research president said in a note on Wednesday.Some on Wall Street expect the price rout to deepen, going as far as $60 a barrel by 2025.This is a "high conviction" forecast for Citigroup's Max Layton, who told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-09-11/citigroup-s-layton-sees-average-60-oil-price-in-2025-video">Bloomberg</a> that oversupply conditions will continue to dent prices."The market just simply got closer to D-Day, really — to that kind of big surplus that we've been forecasting for some time," the Global Head of Commodities Research said. "I would say the market is trying to send a strong signal to OPEC that there's no room for any more barrels."In its latest monthly report, the cartel <a target="_blank" href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm">cut its outlook</a> on oil demand, as Chinese consumption slows. Daily global demand is now set to grow by 2 million barrels per day this year, or 80,000 barrels less than previously expected.According to Bank of America, China has accounted for roughly 45% of global liquid consumption since 2001. Yet a disappointing post-pandemic recovery — coupled with the rising popularity of electric vehicles in the country — has chipped at this trend.The bank anticipates next year's global oil demand to fall to 1.1 million barrels per day. With more production coming online from non-OPEC countries, BofA expects an oil surplus of 730,000 barrels per day next year.In a note published last week, it expects Brent to trade at $75 per barrel through 2025.

How plunging oil prices could help the US avoid recession

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A Turkish oil terminal decided to halt Russian imports amid pressure from US sanctions, Reuters reported.</li><li>The Dortyol terminal, operated by Global Terminal Services, decided to "cut all possible connections to Russian oil."</li></ul>A Turkish oil terminal has ceased business with Russia amid broadening US sanctions.The Dortyol terminal — operated by Global Terminal Services (GTS) — announced that it will not be accepting any more Russian products, Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/turkish-oil-terminal-halts-russian-oil-business-2024-03-06/">reported</a> on Wednesday. GTS said it decided to "cut all possible connections to Russian oil."Turkey is one of the countries that began buying cheap Russian crude after Western sanctions went into effect following the invasion of Ukraine. The GTS terminal in particular purchased 11.74 million barrels of Russian crude in 2023, Reuters reported citing Kpler data.Last year's crude and fuel imports from Russia alone marked a sevenfold increase from the total amount the terminal imported in the year before the Ukraine war began.But broadening US sanctions on Russia pushed GTS to step back.On February 23, the anniversary of Russia's invasion and following opposition leader Aleksei Navalny's death, the US announced an <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/sanctions-against-russia-8211-a-timeline-69602559#:~:text=The%20US%20announces%20more%20than,AVANGARD%20Joint%20Stock%20BANK%20and" target="_blank" rel="noopener">additional 500 sanctions</a> on the Kremlin, many of which were targeted against individuals and companies connected to Russia's financial and defense sectors. It was the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/business/us-sanctions-russia.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">largest sanctions package</a> passed by the Biden administration to date.According to GTS, it has been in full compliance with US sanctions including the G7's price cap. The current decision is just an "additional measure," they told Reuters.The terminal will still accept Russian cargoes nominated before GTS implemented the ban in late-February.

US sanctions push a key Turkish oil terminal to halt Russian imports

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Dr. <keyword id="22853757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Roizen" source="keywords">Michael Roizen</keyword> is an expert in <keyword id="20186177" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="longevity" source="keywords">longevity</keyword> and uses scientific research to shape his lifestyle.</li><li>He shared the <keyword id="19904593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foods" source="keywords">foods</keyword> he has added to his diet that are linked to a longer lifespan.</li></ul>A doctor who claims to have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/doctor-longevity-expert-reverse-biological-age-years-diet-principle-s2024-7">reversed his age by 20 years</a> shared the foods he eats weekly in a bid to boost his longevity. Dr. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/busy-doctor-reversed-age-20-years-workout-routine-2024-7">Michael Roizen</a>, the chief wellness officer at Cleveland Clinic who has written books on longevity, is 78 years old but told Business Insider he has a "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-the-maximum-age-of-humans-115-or-older-2023-3">biological age</a>" of 57.6. (It's important to note that there's no consensus on what constitutes biological age and how to measure it). He said that while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/longevity-lifestyle-changes-live-longer-healthy-habits-genes-study-2024-5">genes play a part in life expectancy</a>, "the most important thing people have got to understand is that they get to control how long and how well they live." "You control your genes," he said, referring to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/health-effects-of-epigenetics-2013-6">epigenetics</a>, or how lifestyle factors can influences if genes turn or or off. "Your choices matter," he added. For example, a 2023 study published in the journal Nature found that those who switched to a healthy, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/longevity-diet-food-list-cheap-easy-2023-11">longevity-associated diet</a> in the long term were more likely to live over a decade longer. The researchers said this was likely because the participants ate more whole grains, nuts, and fruit, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-you-can-do-to-live-longer-healthier-2023-9">cut down on sugary drinks and processed meats</a>. Roizen said that even the smallest additions to a person's diets can have a positive effect on their health. He shared the seven foods he eats each week. <h2><keyword id="20155915" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="olive-oil" source="keywords">Olive oil</keyword></h2>Roizen said he has a tablespoon of olive oil every day. A 2022 study published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology found that people who consumed more than half a tablespoon of olive oil a day had a 19% lower risk of dying from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/health/conditions-symptoms/what-is-heart-disease">cardiovascular disease</a>, a 17% lower risk of dying from cancer, and a 29% lower risk of dying from a neurodegenerative disease. Plus, replacing margarine, butter, mayonnaise, and dairy fats with olive oil appeared to lower the risk of dying by up to 34%. The authors suggested that this could be because of the anti-inflammatory and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/health/diet-nutrition/olive-oil-benefits">antioxidant properties of olive oil</a>, or because people who consumed more olive oil also tended to be more active, less likely to smoke, and ate more fruits and vegetables. <h2><keyword id="21217173" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="salmon" source="keywords">Salmon</keyword> and trout</h2> <div type="image" title="Two cooked fillets of salmon on a plate with salad in the background." height="1061" width="1414" msid="112502318" hostid="261"></div>Eating fish once or twice a week was linked to a lower risk of dying from any cause in one 2022 study published in the European Journal of Nutrition. A separate 2018 study by researchers at China's Zhejiang University School of Medicine and the US-based National Cancer Institute had similar results. Participants who ate at least 227 grams of fish a week, per the 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, had a 10% lower risk of dying from cardiovascular disease, cancer, and Alzheimer's disease. The current US dietary guidelines recommend people eat fish like salmon and trout because they are high in vitamin D, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/health/diet-nutrition/omega-3-benefits">omega-3 fatty acids</a> — which are important for heart health, providing energy, and building cells — and low in methyl mercury, a toxic heavy metal found in fish. <h2><keyword id="20510404" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dark-chocolate" source="keywords">Dark chocolate</keyword></h2>With dark chocolate, it's not hard to eat "a little bit every day," as Roizen recommended. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/health/diet-nutrition/dark-chocolate-benefits">Dark chocolate</a> has been linked to lower blood pressure, lower cholesterol, and a reduced risk of heart disease, BI previously reported. Dr. Florence Comite, an endocrinologist and precision medicine specialist, previously told BI that she counts her daily square of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/longevity-supplements-live-longer-precision-medicine-doctor-2024-3">dark chocolate as a supplement</a> because of antioxidants it contains. <h2>Mushrooms</h2>Like Comite with dark chocolate, Roizen sees <a target="_blank" href="http://link">mushrooms as a supplement</a>, which he eats at least five times a week. <div type="image" title="Mushroom and onion sandwich on a board." height="1131" width="1508" msid="112502324" hostid="261"></div>"One of my favorite lunches is the MLT," he said. "Instead of a BLT (bacon, lettuce, and tomato), you have a mushroom lettuce and tomato, which is absolutely healthy and tastes magnificent." Mushrooms contain ergothioneine, which researchers from Penn State University dubbed a "longevity vitamin" because of its antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects. A 2020 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7229907/">study</a> by researchers from Lund University, Sweden, linked ergothioneine to a lower risk for coronary artery disease and cardiometabolic disease for the same reasons. <h2>Avocados</h2>A 2022 study published in the Journal of the American Heart Association found associations between eating two servings of avocado a week and a lower risk of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease. <div type="image" title="Half an avocado with a spoon in it, mid-scoop." height="1264" width="1685" msid="112502319" hostid="261"></div>Cardiovascular disease is the No. 1 cause of death and disability worldwide, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. <h2>Cauliflower</h2>Roizen makes a "cauliflower creamer" by blending the vegetable with olive oil and using it as a spread. Researchers wrote in a 2021 review of studies published in Frontiers in Pharmacology that cruciferous vegetables, including cauliflower, have been linked to lower cancer risk and the prevention and treatment of other chronic diseases, such as cardiometabolic disorders, Alzheimer's disease, depression, and musculoskeletal disorders. Correction: August 15, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated the year a study was published. The study on avocados in the Journal of the American Heart Association was published in 2022, not 2023.

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