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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Recession risk has jumped to 75% due to the potential for a trade ware under Trump, BCA Research said.</li><li>Trump's proposed tariffs could lower household income and depress corporate investments.</li></ul>Peter Berezin, the chief global strategist for BCA Research, said the chances of a US recession have jumped since President-elect Donald Trump's win last week.In a Friday note, Berezin increased the probability of an economic recession to 75% from 65%, citing the risk of a new trade war under Trump."The prospect of a new trade war more than offsets the other pro-business parts of Trump's agenda. With the labor market already weakening going into the election, the odds of a recession have risen," Berezin said.On the campaign trail, Trump proposed implementing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-threats-world-ceos-thoughts-trade-2024-11">universal tariffs of 10%-20% on goods imported</a> into the country and a 60% tariff on goods from China.Berezin said those tariffs would likely depress corporate investment and lower real household disposable income for consumers, representing a double economic whammy.Berezin cited a study from the Budget Lab at Yale that estimates Trump's proposed tariffs could reduce real disposable income for the median US household by $1,900-$7,600.Some have argued that Trump's tariff proposals are empty threats meant to to get leverage when negotiating with other countries, but Berezin isn't so sure."Whether Trump carries out these threats is open for debate. The consensus view among market participants is that, for the most part, he will not. Once again, I suspect the consensus is too optimistic," Berezin said.And while Trump's proposed tax cuts, if passed, could boost the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500's</a> earnings per share by 4%, that's less than the 5% gain the index has seen in the past week, Berezin highlighted, suggesting that those potential tax cuts are already priced into the market.Berezin is also worried about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/surging-treasury-yields-after-trump-win-show-borrowers-may-not-get-relief-2024-11">the surge in interest rates since Trump's election win,</a> arguing that they're at "restrictive levels" that would put downward pressure on economic growth."The weak state of the housing market is screaming at investors that monetary policy is restrictive," Berezin said, highlighting the marked slowdown in housing sales activity.All of these factors lead Berezin to take a bearish view on the stock market going forward."Taken together, these considerations lead us to recommend a modest underweight on stocks," Berezin said, adding that he plans to move to a "max underweight" recommendation "once clearer evidence of a recession emerges."

Trump's proposed trade war raises the odds of a US recession to 75%, Wall Street strategist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Goldman Sachs last week promoted 95 people to partner — its largest class under CEO David Solomon.</li><li>Partners from Goldman's banking and markets and asset management units shared how they got the news.</li></ul>First came the calls. Then came the Champagne.Wall Street may be known for its long hours — but last week, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partners-revealed-see-full-list-names-diversity-women-2024-11">95 of Goldman Sachs' top executives</a> pressed pause (briefly) to revel in a professional milestone: making partner.The role — Goldman's top designation outside the C-suite — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partner-class-perks-privileges-cross-ruffing-process-2024-10">represents a zenith</a> at the prestigious Wall Street bank. Goldman Sachs is a leading investment bank for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partners-share-investment-banking-oral-histories-2024-7">corporate dealmaking</a> and trading, and its partners represent less than 1% of roughly 46,000 employees. On average, Goldman's newest partners have spent 16 years rising in the ranks, the bank said last week.Business Insider spoke to nine partners from the 2024 class about their big day, including how they celebrated with their families and teams. For some, the day raced by in a blur after getting the call from top bosses <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-ceo-david-solomon-memo-trump-presidential-victory-policies-2024-11">CEO David Solomon</a> or President and COO John Waldron. Many described an outpouring of support from inside the halls of Goldman Sachs, including balloons, congratulatory notes, applause from staff, and toasts with fellow members of their partner class.One trader told BI he sat in his office quietly to digest the news and not disturb the work of others, while another executive told BI she shouted across the trading floor, "We did it, team! We did it!" to hugs and applause. "It's like a wedding and birthday wrapped up in one amazing moment that you keep reliving," one new partner said.Here's a glimpse inside the big day of nine of Wall Street's up-and-coming executives, including what they did to mark the occasion. Answers have been edited for length and clarity and are ordered alphabetically by last name.<h2 id="7149a354-e3d3-4f1e-b8a4-c63d3a189018">Rob Barlick, region head for Florida and Latin America private wealth management</h2><div type="image" title="Robert Barlick" height="1125" width="1500" msid="115225868" hostid="261" sizebytes="83670"></div>David called me on my cell at 8:54 a.m. My team sits outside my office so they knew what had happened. They all rushed in to offer their congratulations, and we had a celebratory dinner later in the evening.One of the most remarkable things about being named partner is the flood of emails, texts, and calls you get after the announcement. I received literally hundreds of messages from colleagues, clients, alumni, and friends. It's a joyful rush of congratulations that's deeply moving.<h2 id="e22683da-a145-42f7-aa1e-cae0392d86b9">Lyla Bibi, head of the US healthcare equity-capital-markets group within investment banking</h2><div type="image" title="Lyla Bibi Goldman Sachs partner" height="1125" width="1500" msid="115225871" hostid="261" sizebytes="70364"></div>As someone who spent most of her professional career at GS, getting "the call" from John Waldron was a moment I imagined for decades (and was still woefully underprepared for it!).I called my husband first (and by extension my two youngest kids). My parents were my second call.I'd love to say it was a full day of celebrating, but there was a day job in between the incredible outpouring of congratulatory calls, hugs, visits, texts, and emails.There were some wonderful celebrations and tributes across the healthcare team — various women's groups as well as an intimate dinner hosted by the financing group partners with our spouses and partners. And coming home to flowers, Champagne, and cards — it's like a wedding and birthday wrapped up in one amazing moment that you keep reliving.<h2 id="71b7cc8f-c9bf-4944-b5b9-4ab9705296d1">Bracha Cohen, managing director in engineering within Goldman Sachs Asset Management, global head of client servicing and public portfolio servicing</h2><div type="image" title="Bracha Cohen" height="1501" width="2001" msid="115225878" hostid="261" sizebytes="56022"></div>I first got a call from John Waldron and then received a second call from our chief information officer, Marco Argenti. When my assistant saw who had called, she ran into my office to give me a hug. The first person I called was my husband, who told me he never doubted me for a minute.We had three celebrations at work over cake and Champagne – first for the teams I manage and work most closely with, then with all of the engineering managing directors in New York, and then with all of the existing and new asset-and-wealth-management partners. My husband took me to dinner and I suspect he's scheduling a "surprise" party with our seven children for this weekend.One of the things that made it possible for me to get to this point is the incredible support the firm provides to employees to enable them to grow their families. For example, I felt incredibly supported to be on leave for several months when I had triplets just two years after joining the firm, and on top of that got promoted to vice president in my first year of eligibility.Additionally, as an Orthodox Jew, I've never felt anything other than respect and understanding for my commitment to religion, including being unreachable over the Jewish Sabbath and holidays.<h2 id="a0810c31-5f56-47ac-98d9-402bbead7ef4">Matt Doherty, head of alternative capital markets, Americas</h2><div type="image" title="Matt Doherty Goldman Sachs partner" height="1607" width="2143" msid="115225873" hostid="261" sizebytes="70440"></div>It's interesting that David ended up calling me because I haven't interacted as much with David. That was actually our first conversation, which was nice.My team and I went to drinks with Kristin Olsen, the asset-and-wealth-management partner who leads the group, and a whole bunch of other folks at around 4 o'clock.Marc Nachmann runs our division — he put together an event for the current partners in AWM and the new partners at 200 West. I got to meet all my new partners, which was really fun.I didn't manage to see my kids before they went to bed, but I saw my wife, which was fun. We had a nice dinner together.The next morning, my 3-and-a-half-year-old and 1-and-a-half-year-old had made me breakfast and a card, which was really cute. The card said, "Congrats, Dada."I don't think day to day it will change my role too much, although I think this is a step up at the leadership level, being involved in helping weigh in on broader cultural issues or how we should evolve and change our practices as a firm.<h2 id="22771a02-3a57-4753-864e-273d29d226d7">Shane Lee, natural gas trader</h2><div type="image" title="Shane Lee, Goldman Sachs trader" height="1125" width="1500" msid="115225876" hostid="261" sizebytes="88144"></div>I got the call from John Waldron around 7 a.m. local time. Though it was a very exciting call, more than anything, I felt overwhelmingly humbled — almost embarrassed. I kept myself locked in my office away from the trading floor for a couple hours out of respect for the fact many others in the process were nervously awaiting their own news, and my teammates were at their busy peak of the day. I told my wife of 23 years and my parents, and then contemplated how I would break the news to the office without interrupting their days too much.We kept things tame at the office — brought in some lunch at work, and then I took the team out for a couple of drinks. I wanted to make sure I could get in some family time before the end of the night, and take the time to individually thank everyone who had reached out.My wife and I agreed we would celebrate by taking some nice formal family pictures soon. We haven't done that for many years. I know that sounds super boring, but the little family things are important to me. These days it's not easy to get my kids to spend time with me, so this will be a good excuse!I think I made it to partner because my teammates propelled me there. They need to want to work for you, and that's what I spend time on. I try and operate every day with empathy and humility and a healthy dose of fear of the market.<h2 id="d8943d85-886f-4f13-b464-fa1548ae9a39">Vishaal Rana, cross markets consumer retail investment banker</h2><div type="image" title="Vishaal Rana" height="1125" width="1500" msid="115225875" hostid="261" sizebytes="70632"></div>David Solomon called me. The call was short but one of the most consequential I've had over the years. It was surreal and, honestly, still has not completely sunk in.The first person I told was my wife, who was standing right next to me. She was so happy for me, and I could not have done this without her support over the years.I celebrated in a low-key way at home with my family. We had dinner and my wife and I enjoyed a toast. I even still did the dishes. I think that we will probably do a bigger celebration at some point in the future with family and friends, but I don't have one currently planned. This may be superstitious, but it felt like bad karma to plan a celebration too early.Joining the partnership represents the culmination of long-term persistence, being nimble throughout my career, always looking at opportunities and challenges through the lens of what's best for the firm, and the flexibility to work with founders at high-growth companies to boards of large-cap companies.<h2 id="b4b1dea0-ba6c-424e-bd97-84df4e42e837">Aaron Siegel, global head of entertainment investment banking</h2><div type="image" title="Aaron Siegel Goldman Sachs partner" height="1122" width="1497" msid="115225867" hostid="261" sizebytes="66452"></div>I joined GS over 20 years ago, just days after meeting my wife, Hayley, while moving to New York City. John Waldron was the first person I met at 85 Broad Street — it was a meaningful, full-circle moment to get the partnership call from him. I called Hayley right after to share the moment – and to reflect on how many colleagues, mentors, and clients have become like family.I happened to be stepping into a meeting with the Arthur Miller Foundation — an amazing nonprofit that supports theater teachers in schools across NYC and beyond — just as John called. I spent the rest of the day appreciating the transformative impact of great teachers and mentors and had the opportunity to thank many of mine throughout the day.I did celebrate with my wife and two sons – making sure my youngest stayed up well past his bedtime for us to all be together.<h2 id="fccc57f3-4c42-4681-af99-b91faf3bd4c0">Craig Smart, healthcare banker covering healthcare services and technology companies</h2><div type="image" title="Craig Smart Goldman Sachs partner" height="1125" width="1500" msid="115225877" hostid="261" sizebytes="75166"></div>I was on my way to the office after walking my daughter to school. My phone rang while I was on the subway. I quickly decided to get off the train and answer the call, having a feeling for what it might be about. There was a nervousness at the beginning of the call as John began speaking, which transformed into pure bliss and excitement once he delivered the news.I took the rest of my commute to process the magnitude of the moment. As soon as I got above ground, I called my wife, Kristin. It was the pinnacle of my professional career to date and a moment I'll never forget.The excitement and energy at the office was palpable. All day was filled with heartfelt congratulatory remarks from several members of the partnership and colleagues from across the firm. Marshall Smith, global head of healthcare, gathered the entire healthcare team and hosted a celebration for us on the 42nd floor, where he spoke about each of the newly promoted partners from our group individually and toasted the seven of us who are part of the 2024 class.After work, I went to an early dinner with Kristin and our three girls. It was a school night and my children are young, so we were home early, but we plan to find some time to celebrate properly with family and friends over the holiday season — specific plans still TBD.<h2 id="e3d88e7b-bfc7-42e4-b964-4175cd08db11">Sylvia Yeh, cohead of Goldman Sachs Asset Management's municipal fixed-income business</h2><div type="image" title="Sylvia Yeh Goldman Sachs partner" height="1125" width="1500" msid="115225870" hostid="261" sizebytes="139210"></div>I sit with my team on an open trading floor and we're known to be a bit of a fun and outspoken bunch. Not on Thursday, however – you could hear a pin drop even after people hit the desk. We were all just waiting, hoping, for that call to come in.Around 9:40 a.m., our turrets lit up – John Waldron was calling! I felt my heart just stop. And a montage of the last 25 years I've spent at the firm quickly flashed. I took a moment to just shake it off (literally) in my chair before picking up the line. All eyes were on me.John said, "Good morning." We exchanged "how are you's," and then I asked if he was calling because he wanted to open up a Muni Account. We laughed and he said that he was calling to welcome me to the partnership.When our call ended, I did another quick little happy dance, this time swung my chair around, and shouted, "We did it, team! We did it!" knowing that I could not have gotten here without the strong bench I have on my team. The rest is a bit of a blur — applause, cheers, confetti, streamers, balloons, and hugs.It felt like we celebrated all day. Asset-and-wealth divisional management hosted a new partner reception. It was such a wonderful opportunity to connect with current partners and raise a glass to my classmates — an extraordinary group of individuals. And, unbeknownst to me, my husband reserved a location for us to celebrate later that evening and coordinated with my team to make sure that all of my people were there.The only way to celebrate this achievement was to do it with the people who helped make it happen — my team.Are you a Goldman Sachs or Wall Street insider? Get in touch with these reporters with your story. Reed Alexander can be reached via email at ralexander@businessinsider.com or via the encrypted messaging app Signal 561-247-5758 , and Emmalyse Brownstein can be reached at ebrownstein@businessinsider.com or or via the encrypted messaging app Signal 305-857-5516.

How 9 newly minted Goldman Sachs partners celebrated their big day, from shouting across the trading floor to popping Champagne in the office

<ul class="summary-list"><li>President-elect Donald Trump proposed broad tariffs on imports, including up to 60% on goods from China.</li><li>Economists said his tariff proposals could spike inflation as companies tend to pass costs on to consumers.</li></ul>Some executives have warned that price hikes are on the way if President-elect <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">Donald Trump's tariff plans</a> go into effect.Trump proposed a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10#imported-goods">60% tariff on goods imported from China</a> on the campaign trail, coupled with a 10% to 20% tariff on goods imported from other countries. While the president-elect could choose not to enact tariffs at that scale once he assumes office, economists <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/surging-treasury-yields-after-trump-win-show-borrowers-may-not-get-relief-2024-11?_gl=1*192eyud*_ga*MTAyOTY4OTk4NC4xNzE0NDgyOTcz*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTM1NzQ1OS41MTQuMS4xNzMxMzU3NDcwLjQ5LjAuMA..">and the market</a> have predicted that his proposals would spike inflation and force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.A number of companies have already begun responding to Trump's election victory and the implications his tariff proposals will have on the costs of their goods. Executives told analysts on earnings calls that it would be difficult to maintain current prices under Trump's broad tariffs.Other companies are still waiting for more information from the president-elect. Tarang Amin, CEO of e.l.f. Beauty, told Business Insider that the company must first see the policy Trump enacts before making any changes to its pricing, and that a new policy wouldn't affect the business until after its 2025 fiscal year."We don't like tariffs because they are a tax on the American people," Amin said, adding that the company has been subject to a 25% tariff since 2019 due to policies from Trump's first term, "and at that time we pulled all the levers available to us to minimize the effects to our company and our community."Trump has previously said that his proposals would not influence prices on US goods: "I am going to put tariffs on other countries coming into our country, and that has nothing to do with taxes to us. That is a tax on another country," he said in an August speech.Below are the companies that are warning of price increases if Trump's tariff proposals are implemented.<h2 id="d204ee30-d902-48ac-9f04-107b42ca9d58">AutoZone</h2>Philip Daniele, CEO of auto parts company AutoZone, told analysts on a September earnings call that tariff policies have "ebbed and flowed over the years," and if Trump does implement more tariffs, "we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer.""We generally raise prices ahead of that," Daniele said, adding that prices would gradually settle over time. "So, that's historically what we've done."<h2 id="2a0df8c2-9367-42c0-93cd-a96082916950">Columbia Sportswear</h2>Tim Boyle, CEO of Columbia Sportswear, told analysts on an October earnings call that the company is "very concerned about the imposition of tariffs. " While he considers Columbia adept at managing tariffs, "trade wars are not good and not easy to win."Boyle also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/10/30/companies-tariffs-trump-prices/">told</a> the Washington Post in October that the company is "set to raise prices.""It's going to be very, very difficult to keep products affordable for Americans," he said.<h2 id="e0af6479-8e49-4477-a151-a5818db04f81">Stanley Black &amp; Decker</h2>Donald Allan, CEO of manufacturing company Stanley Black &amp; Decker, told analysts in an October earnings call that the company has been evaluating "a variety of different scenarios" to plan for new tariffs under Trump."And obviously, coming out of the gate, there would be price increases associated with tariffs that we put into the market," Allan said, adding that "there's usually some type of delay given the processes that our customers have around implementing price."Allan also said that the company would consider moving its production out of China to other countries, like Mexico, to reduce the impact of a 60% tariff on Chinese imported goods. Steve Madden was among other companies that announced plans to import fewer goods from China, with its CEO Edward Rosenfeld saying on an earnings call that the company has already started that process.

3 CEOs preparing to raise prices if Trump enacts trade restrictions

<ul class="summary-list"><li>My husband and I loved living in a two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo near <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-things-to-do-washington-dc-what-to-skip-family-2024-8">Washington, DC</a>.</li><li>When we retired, we wanted space for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boomer-husband-terrified-retirement-hobbies-flexible-schedule-2024-4">retirement hobbies</a> and grandkids.</li></ul>For 17 years, my husband and I lived in a two-bedroom, two-bathroom condominium in North Arlington, Virginia.We moved there from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-us-suburbs-to-live-in-2020-6">Maryland suburbs</a> in 2004 when our last-born went off to college. Both my husband and I worked in the heart of Washington, DC, and we wanted to ease our commute challenges.Our condo was near a major metro station less than 20 minutes from DC, and we loved being blocks away from shopping, movies, and restaurants.For a long time, our life in Arlington was idyllic in many ways. But the convenience of condo life came with some challenges, especially once we retired and became grandparents.And although <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-retirement-cities-buy-home-baby-boomers-florida-north-carolina-2024-10">many retirees downsize</a>, we soon found ourselves doing the opposite in 2021.<h2 id="e6c198cf-a7e5-42a7-ac0c-87e3ea05fe6d">Eventually, our condo didn't suit our life anymore</h2>Although I loved the coziness of our duplex condo, the smaller size started to become a bother — especially when our family grew from four to 10 in the span of seven years.We had no space to store baby equipment, like high chairs and potty seats, and no room for our grandchildren to play when they came over.With our kitchen on one floor and dining room on another, hosting holidays and dinners for our larger family became extra stressful.Our second bedroom became a guest room, grandchild nursery, and office for me to write from after I'd retired. It also became an art studio once my husband retired and leaned into his oil-painting hobby.We loved the convenience of Arlington and how close it was to DC, but our condo there no longer fit into our future plans.<h2 id="959135d5-2385-4336-9b73-82637a5a78bf">Our solution was to upsize in a more affordable location nearby</h2><div type="image" title="A pond with trees of autum foliage reflecting into it" height="3117" width="6600" msid="114290940" hostid="261" sizebytes="3243244"></div>Eventually, we began looking for a bigger home.Unfortunately, other townhouses in Arlington in our price range still seemed too narrow and small. We wanted an open living area that flowed easily to accommodate groups, which was hard to find in anything but a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biggest-single-family-homes-landlord-settlement-ftc-junk-fees-2024-9">single-family home</a>.To afford such a house, we knew we'd have to move further from DC to a lower-cost suburban area where our money would go further.In 2021, we left the walkability of Arlington and its environs and headed back to the suburbs of Montgomery County, Maryland.We now live on a leafy cul-de-sac in a single-family home with five bedrooms, four and a half baths, and a finished basement. It has a huge kitchen that flows into a dining area and living room — a perfect space for large gatherings.A nice bonus is that we ended up finding community and friendship with our neighbors.We're near a popular swim and tennis club, and the nearby neighborhood community center is filled with activities. Our town is more walkable than I expected, too, with a pleasant path along a wooded area just a block and a half away.I still miss city life and how easily I could easily ride my bicycle to the Mount Vernon Trail and Georgetown — but everything in life comes with a price.During the first <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ina-garten-holiday-recipes-review-2022-12">holiday dinner</a> at our new house, the kids went down to the basement to play by themselves while the adults stayed upstairs and relaxed in our huge living space. I knew then we had made the right move.

We traded our condo in a walkable city for a big house in the suburbs after we retired. It's been great for us and our grandkids.

Last week, the President of the United States, <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword>, announced significant tariffs on a range of <keyword id="20139085" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-products" source="keywords">Chinese products</keyword> to protect American workers from unfair trade practices. The targetted measures include a 100% tariff on <keyword id="6354973" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-vehicles" source="Orion">electric vehicles</keyword>, a 50% tariff on semiconductors and solar cells, and a 25% tariffs on batteries, steel and aluminium products, some critical minerals, and essential health equipment like medical gloves, syringes and needles. In his address from the Rose Garden of the White House, Biden said America can continue to buy any kind of car they want, "but we're never going to allow China to unfairly control the market for these cars. Period." He claimed that the Chinese government has been investing state funds in various Chinese companies for years, spanning industries across the above-mentioned sectors. How does this brewing geopolitical <keyword id="20736760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trade-war" source="keywords">trade war</keyword> impact <keyword id="20742235" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-firms" source="keywords">Indian firms</keyword>? Experts say the impact could be in two ways, benefitting some sectors, while harming the few others. Let’s start with the bad news. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Threat to Indian firms" comment="subhead" text="Threat to Indian firms">Threat to Indian firms</cmsannotation> Beijing offers significant subsidies on most of these products, leading to surplus production that exceeds domestic and even regular export demand. Subsequently, Chinese companies are known to flood the global markets with surplus products at unreasonably low prices, forcing local manufacturers out of business in many countries, including <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. A prime example of this in practice can be found in the steel sector, where weak domestic demand is pushing the world’s largest steel producer China to offload surplus production into Indian markets at cheaper prices. Indian steel manufacturers are already struggling to compete with a glut of cheaper Chinese steel, with shipments nearly doubling year-on-year in the financial year ending March 2024. “India is already under grave threat of import because all major steel consuming economies are shutting their doors on these steel producing countries. We are highly vulnerable to surging and predatory import,” said Alok Sahay, secretary general of the Indian Steel Association, to Reuters. Global trade experts say that a majority of Chinese products are sold at unreasonably low prices in global markets because the companies in these sectors do not have to worry about profits. They are heavily subsidised by the Chinese government. <keyword id="20279291" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Steel-Authority-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Steel Authority of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Steel Authority of India">Steel Authority of India</keyword>’s (SAIL) chairman Amarendu Prakash also said that they are keenly watching Chinese imports after the US tariff increases. Additionally, China has been accused of employing anti-competitive strategies like compelling foreign companies to transfer their technology in order to operate in China. These factors have led to the US effectively shutting its door on several Chinese products through heightened tariffs, and other developed markets like Canada are also likely to follow suit. White House also emphasised that it continues to consult with its partners and allies who are facing similar threats from China’s unfair trade practices and are keen on taking action. If more and more global markets restrict entry of Chinese products, the risk of the majority of such products being dumped in neighbouring India increases drastically. Trying to block Chinese excess production "is like squeezing a balloon. It shrinks in one place and pops out in another," William Reinsch, a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, tells Reuters. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="An opportunity also arises" comment="subhead" text="An opportunity also arises">An opportunity also arises</cmsannotation> While some products risk being dumped into the Indian market, in a few other cases, Indian firms could benefit from fresh openings in the lucrative US market. "Of the products affected, India has opportunities in face masks, PPE, syringes &amp;needles, medical gloves, aluminium, iron, and steel. Opportunity may come in China also with retaliation, provided we have market access in products targeted by China," Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), told ANI. However, China is not likely to retaliate against the US tariffs at the moment, say experts, though the country’s Ministry of Commerce said it would take 'resolute measures to safeguard its own rights and interests' "China's economy is fragile. With household spending and the property market on the wane, manufacturing for export markets is one of its few bright spots. Beijing will not want to cut off its nose to spite its face. More broadly, China is desperately trying to encourage new foreign investment. Rash retaliatory action could spoil its case," Moody's Analytics explained in a recent report. Out of China's USD 420 billion exports to the US, only USD 18 billion is impacted due to the latest hike in tariffs — representing slightly over 4% and therefore considered marginal. But Sahai says that this market will continue to grow with time and provides an opportunity to India and other competitors to chip in the supply gap. Ajay Srivastava, the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), also echoes Sahai’s opinions. He emphasised that the increased duties on Chinese face masks, syringes, needles, medical gloves, and natural graphite offer a substantial opportunity for India, as quoted by ANI. "By ramping up production and export of these in-demand products, India could enhance its trade footprint in the US market," he added. In terms of products like electric vehicles and semiconductors, India remains a net importer, and therefore, may not be in a position to capitalise right now. In the long term, however, as India begins semiconductor production at scale in 2025, there will be opportunities to export some of it to the US and other European countries, offering fresh impetus for domestic manufacturing. As the security risks associated with importing Chinese semiconductors prompts more and more trade barriers from the Western countries, demand for supply from India is likely to grow. Efforts are already underway for the establishment of four large semiconductor plants in India, with three located in Gujarat and one in Assam. Last fiscal year, Indian exports to the US dipped marginally by 1.32 per cent to $77.5 billion as against $78.54 billion in 2022-23. The new development now gives an unique opportunity to turn the tide over the next few years. Overall, some sectors like steel and aluminium do face a serious challenge due to the fresh US tariffs on Chinese products. However, the development will open new avenues for Western market entry and expansion for several other products. (With inputs from agencies)

US-China tariff war could benefit several sectors in India while harming a few others

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Many Gen Zers purchase cheap goods from the Chinese e-commerce companies Shein and Temu.</li><li>The Biden administration is taking steps to make more Chinese imports subject to import fees.</li></ul>Two of Gen Z's favorite shopping platforms for cheap goods could get more expensive in the near future.On September 13, the Biden administration announced it was taking steps to reduce the "abuse" of a trade law that has allowed the goods of many companies, including popular Chinese e-commerce companies Shein and Temu, to avoid taxes and tariffs when they enter the US. The trade provision, called "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shein-temu-de-minimis-tax-loophole-scrutiny-2024-1">de minimis</a>," allows US consumers to avoid paying these import fees on direct-to-consumer shipments of less than $800.In fact, a House Select Committee <a target="_blank" href="https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/media/press-releases/select-committee-releases-interim-findings-shein-temu-forced-labor">report</a> published last year estimated that more than 30% of packages shipped to the US under the de minimis provision came from Shein and Temu.The administration's announcement included a new rule proposal that would remove this exemption for many Chinese imports, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.npr.org/2024/09/13/nx-s1-5111427/shein-temu-white-house-biden-rule-china">most</a> clothing products. These imports would become subject to import taxes and tariffs — potentially leading to higher prices for the many Americans who buy apparel, home decor, or electronics from the likes of Shein and Temu.If Shein and Temu's costs rise, this could hit Gen Z the hardest. An estimated 40% to 45% of Shein and Temu's US customers are Gen Z, Chad Schofield, cofounder of the e-commerce logistics management platform BoxC, told Business Insider. He said he wouldn't be surprised if the proposal sparked some backlash among young Americans."Nineteen-year-old girls will scream bloody murder if it's going to be more expensive," he joked.If the proposal goes into effect, a $40 Shein or Temu purchase, for example, could become roughly $50 once the new import fees are added — effectively a 25% increase — Schofield said. However, import fees could vary by product. Juozas Kaziukėnas, founder of the e-commerce intelligence firm Marketplace Pulse, told BI that many Shein and Temu products would likely face import fees between 15% and 20%.The proposal aims to help protect American businesses and consumers from a rapidly growing number of imports. Over the last decade, the number of annual de minimis shipments has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/13/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-new-actions-to-protect-american-consumers-workers-and-businesses-by-cracking-down-on-de-minimis-shipments-with-unsafe-unfairly-traded-products/">grown</a> from roughly 140 million to one billion, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/14/business/economy/tariffs-amazon-walmart-china-shein.html">more</a> of these shipments come from China than all other countries combined. In a fact sheet, the Biden administration said the rise in these shipments has made it more difficult for the US to enforce trade laws, protect consumers, and prevent illicit drugs like fentanyl from entering the country because these shipments face <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.npr.org/2024/09/13/nx-s1-5111427/shein-temu-white-house-biden-rule-china">more lax</a> customs inspections. There is also concern that competition from these low-cost imports is hurting US businesses that can't compete on price.While the administration didn't name Shein or Temu directly in its announcement, experts told BI that these companies were likely top of mind.The proposal is part of a broader Biden administration effort to protect US businesses from competition with cheap Chinese goods — and ensure the US isn't reliant on China, in part for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-proposes-ban-china-russia-tech-connected-cars-security-fears-2024-9">national security reasons</a>. On the same day the administration announced its rule proposal, new tariffs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/us-take-steps-curb-low-value-chinese-shipments-under-800-de-minimis-exemption-2024-09-13/">took effect</a> that will target roughly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ev-solar-tariffs-china-shock-economy-property-trade-war-krugman-2024-5">$18 billion worth</a> of Chinese goods, including solar cells, semiconductors, and electric vehicles. Meanwhile, challenges to President Joe Biden's law <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktok-ban-app-american-us-not-worried-2024-9">banning TikTok</a> in the US are heading to the courts.To be sure, many millennials and Gen Xers are also Shein and Temu <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/millennials-gen-xers-not-gen-143000810.html">customers</a>. Additionally, many Americans across generations aren't fans of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/temu-vs-shein-fast-fashion-rivals-legal-battle-2023-7">fast fashion</a> these companies specialize in — in part due to concerns about their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shein-and-temu-skirt-import-tariffs-us-lawmakers-fast-fashion-2023-6">labor practices</a> and product <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shein-temu-shoes-11-229-times-legal-limit-toxic-substances-2024-8">safety standards</a>.<h2 id="8458a751-d271-4d33-ad54-7d35c9ec98e7">How Shein and Temu could work around the proposal</h2>If prices rise on Shein and Temu goods, it could help some companies that don't source as many of their products from China. This includes large e-commerce businesses like Amazon. "Everything on Temu is also on Amazon but more expensive and faster shipping," said Kaziukėnas, adding, "The price gap between the same product on Amazon and Temu is going to shrink but it's not going to disappear completely."However, it remains to be seen how much — and when — prices will rise for Shein and Temu shoppers.Schofield estimated that the Biden administration's proposal wouldn't take effect for at least 18 months, at which point another president will be in office. He said a public comment period is required and that the e-commerce industry could lobby against it. If Congress <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shein-temu-de-minimis-tax-loophole-scrutiny-2024-1">passed a law</a> that revised the de minimis provision — something the administration has pushed for — the rollout of import fees could be expedited and potentially hit consumers sooner than 18 months.If former President Donald Trump is re-elected, he could also decide to change course, though Schofield said he wouldn't expect him to given his prior <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/where-does-trump-vance-stand-on-china-tariffs-inflation-taxes-2024-7">policy stances</a> on China. If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, she would be expected to pursue a similar course as Biden.Even once these fees took effect, there are a few ways Shein and Temu could try to keep prices low for consumers. For one, Temu and Shein could "share the burden" with customers, raising prices modestly but subsidizing the rest of the import fees, Kaziukėnas said.Additionally, Temu and Shein could reduce their direct-to-consumer shipments from China and bring more of their inventory to warehouses in the US for distribution. Schofield said these companies are already warehousing some of their more popular products and that leaning into this further could help them keep costs low for consumers.If the de minimis reforms come to pass, Schofield said Temu or Shein could avoid the full impact of the new import fees by importing large product shipments to store at US warehouses. By doing so, they would pay fees based on the "manufacturing cost" in China, rather than the retail price a US consumer would face for a direct-to-consumer purchase from China. Schofield said the manufacturing cost could often be roughly half of the retail price.Embracing the warehousing strategy would still force Temu and Shein to pay import fees that they didn't have to pay when it was shipping sub-$800 orders directly to consumers from China. The companies could choose to increase prices as a result, but Schofield said he'd expect the increases to be considerably lower than what a consumer would encounter with a direct shipment from China.Additionally, it's possible that Chinese companies like Shein and Temu could seek to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/14/business/economy/tariffs-amazon-walmart-china-shein.html">import</a> goods from Canada or Mexico — allowing them to bypass the import fees that de minimis reforms would bring.However, these strategic shifts would require the companies to stray from the direct-to-consumer models that have fueled their success.<h2 id="92b214fa-8361-4e48-8e4b-d4c6d2e9018b">The proposals would affect more than just Shein and Temu</h2>It's not just Shein and Temu that could raise prices in response to the Biden administration's proposal. Schofield said many US businesses also import goods direct-to-consumer from Chinese factories. This includes smaller businesses and startups that don't have the resources to warehouse their goods in the US. They would face these import fees as well, and Schofield said they'd likely have a tougher time adapting than companies the size of Shein or Temu."It affects anything that's being shipped direct-to-consumer from China — any company," Schofield said. "So it's not just a purely Temu or Shein issue."Since the proposal was announced, both Shein and Temu have said the de minimis exemption is not key to their success.When reached for comment, a Temu spokesperson pointed Business Insider to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shein-temu-de-minimis-tax-loophole-scrutiny-2024-1">comments</a> the company made in February. At the time, the spokesperson said Temu's "supply-chain efficiencies and operational proficiencies" were the primary drivers of its growth."We are open to and supportive of any policy adjustments made by legislators that align with consumer interests," they said. "We believe that as long as these policies are fair, they won't influence the outcomes of competitive business dynamics."A Shein spokesperson told BI that that complying with any reforms to US trade law will be a "top priority" for the company."Our success is anchored in our unique on-demand business model, which allows us to bring customers the styles they want, efficiently and at an affordable price," they said.Shein did not respond to a request for comment from BI.Going forward, neither Kaziukėnas nor Schofield said they expect the import fees to take much wind out of Shein or Temu's sails."Temu and Shein won't disappear and will continue to be disruptive," Kaziukėnas said. "If price is the ultimate value proposition then they'll continue to steal market share."Schofield said Shein and Temu have already been paying similar import fees for years in Canada, and they still have a large customer base."They made that work in Canada, they could adapt in the US," Schofield said. "I don't see them really slowing down."Do you save money by buying from Shein and Temu? Are you willing to share your story? If so, reach out to this reporter at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:jzinkula@businessinsider.com">jzinkula@businessinsider.com</a>.

America's trade war is coming for Gen Z's favorites

The <keyword id="19949639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rupee" source="keywords">rupee</keyword> appreciated by 12 paise to 83.17 against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword> on Friday, tracking a bullish trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices scaled new peaks. Forex traders attributed the rally to Rs 2.11 lakh crore record dividend by the RBI to the government for the fiscal ended March 31. It was more than double the budgeted expectation, helping shore up revenue ahead of a new government taking office. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.26 and gained further ground to trade at 83.17 against the greenback, registering a gain of 12 paise from its previous closing level. The <keyword id="21021209" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forex-market" source="keywords">forex market</keyword> was closed on Thursday on account of 'Buddha Purnima'. On Wednesday, the rupee appreciated by 2 paise to settle at 83.29 against the US dollar. After a trading holiday on Thursday, the <keyword id="20045514" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-rupee" source="keywords">Indian rupee</keyword> was on a strong footing following a big transfer of Rs 2.11 lakh crore in the form of dividend from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to the Union government, which would improve not only government finances but also allow leverage to spend more on infrastructure, said Anil Kumar Bhansali Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.11, higher by 0.01 per cent. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.05 per cent to USD 81.40 per barrel. "The overall outlook for the rupee appears strongly positive, with the Nifty 50 reaching an all-time high. These factors indicate that India remains a focal point for investors, with potential for the rupee to appreciate. "In the short term, the rupee is expected to approach levels of 83.00 to 83.10, while the medium-term target is projected to range between 82.80 and 82.50," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. On the domestic equity market, both the benchmark indices scaled new peaks. The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 51.21 points, or 0.07 per cent higher at 75,469.25 points. The broader NSE Nifty breached the 23,000 level in initial trade. Moreover, the market capitalisation of listed companies on the NSE surpassed USD 5 trillion (Rs 416.57 trillion) on Thursday on a day when the Nifty 50 index touched an all-time high of 22,993.60. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday, as they purchased shares worth Rs 4,670.95 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/poco-f6-with-snapdraon-8s-gen-3-chipset-launched-starting-at-29999/articleshow/110367623.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/poco-f6-with-snapdraon-8s-gen-3-chipset-launched-starting-at-29999/articleshow/110367623.cms" target="_blank">Poco F6 with Snapdraon 8s Gen 3 chipset launched starting at ₹29,999</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/realme-gt-6t-vs-motorola-edge-50-pro-price-specs-and-features-compared/slidelist/110366047.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/realme-gt-6t-vs-motorola-edge-50-pro-price-specs-and-features-compared/slidelist/110366047.cms" target="_blank">Realme GT 6T vs Motorola Edge 50 Pro – price, specs and features compared</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/sunrisers-hyderabad-and-rajasthan-royals-compete-for-the-ipl-finals-spot-on-may-24/slidelist/110362880.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/sunrisers-hyderabad-and-rajasthan-royals-compete-for-the-ipl-finals-spot-on-may-24/slidelist/110362880.cms" target="_blank">Sunrisers Hyderabad and Rajasthan Royals compete for the IPL finals spot on May 24</a>

Rupee rises 12 paise to 83.17 against US dollar in early trade

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Market analysts predicted choppy trading and sharp swings going into the US presidential election.</li><li>Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race, fueling uncertainty among traders.</li></ul>Market analysts are braced for volatility ahead of Tuesday's presidential election as traders <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-trump-trade-stock-market-bonds-commodities-tariffs-fed-2024-7">shuffled their bets</a> on a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris victory.The Republican and Democratic candidates are neck and neck in many polls,<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-election-predictions-professional-investor-survey-2024-11"> fueling uncertainty</a> in the finance world over who'll emerge triumphant, and clouding the outlook for everything from tax and trade policy to corporate regulation and geopolitics.One analyst underscored the<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-djt-bitcoin-harris-election-odds-betting-kalshi-polymarket-2024-11"> critical importance</a> of the election in research notes on Monday, while another touted economic fundamentals as more important to markets and predicted long-term investors would likely win over time. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">cut interest rates</a> by 25 basis points on Thursday, while China's central bank is set to unveil some form of economic stimulus measures later this week. Here's a roundup of analysts' comments:<h2 id="b051a4d3-ca66-47f5-83ad-6b65851acac1">Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets</h2>"US and European stock futures are trading flat as traders continue to focus on one thing and one thing alone, and that is the US elections. Basically, there is nothing else that matters; it is not going to be earnings that would move things in the markets, and it won't be the US jobs noisy number that would make traders think about the US economy. The only thing that is going to keep them occupied is the US election and who will become the next president of the most powerful country in the world."<h2 id="f123d804-bdf0-46b3-b1b2-46b4a53ef227">Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets</h2>"A shift in the polls seen over the weekend signal the potential for a Harris victory in Iowa; with a surge in the older female demographic signaling a shift that many believe could carry Harris to victory. Coming at a time when markets appeared to have taken a Trump victory as a given, the polls are a timely reminder that betting markets may not be the best indication of who will become the President of the United States."The election looks significantly more of a contest than many had been expecting, which could provide a more protracted and volatile period ahead as we see potential recounts and challenges to potentially drag out this process."<h2 id="4192d8db-abfb-4db3-8486-f24c3eb9af7b">Principal Asset Management</h2>"Despite short-term volatility, historical trends reveal that equities have consistently posted strong gains by the end of a presidential term, underscoring the benefits of maintaining a long-term investment perspective. The drivers of market performance — economic growth, corporate earnings, and innovation — ultimately outshine the impact of political changes."Investors should take caution. Those who allow their political opinions to cloud their investing decisions could miss out on the potential rewards that come with staying invested in the market over the long-term."<h2 id="5a32ad08-8e3d-45d5-a08a-4420d2d2de45">Hal Cook, senior investment analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown</h2>"With the election being an effective coin toss, betting on a specific outcome doesn't seem sensible. Instead, remember that diversification is your friend."<h2 id="989e296a-dd0f-43f5-90c6-c0bd1cc6ef19">Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB</h2>"The main US blue-chip index is up 20% year-to-date, which does not suggest that the market is seriously pricing in the risk of civic violence after this election, which could rock financial markets and cause a global wave of risk aversion."An interesting development leading up to this election is that financial markets expect Trump to win, and the Trump trade has performed well in recent weeks, as you can see in the chart below. The Trump trade is a stronger dollar, weaker bonds/ higher bond yields and stronger crypto. With one day left of this campaign, the dollar is falling, and the dollar index is at a two-week low. Thus, if Harris does win on Tuesday we could see a rapid unwinding of this trade, a sharp weakening of the dollar and intense volatility in the FX and bond market."We expect Monday and Tuesday to be quiet for markets, however, once we get the first drip feed of results on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, expect fireworks."

Prepare for market volatility but don't panic trade, analysts say ahead of Election Day  

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks finished the week higher even as the AI trade showed signs of exhaustion.</li><li>The Dow Jones led with a 1.5% gain this week, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were up about 0.5%.</li></ul>US stocks closed mixed on Friday but finished the week higher even as the artificial intelligence trade showed signs of stumbling.Leading the market higher this week was the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones">Dow Jones Industrial Average,</a> which was up nearly 2%. The <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100</a> finished the week higher by about one-half of a percent.The meteoric rise of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock?miRedirects=1">Nvidia</a> stock took a breather on Thursday and Friday, with the stock down about 10% from its intra-day high of $140.76.Other hot-AI stocks like <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/avgo-stock?miRedirects=1">Broadcom</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/dell-stock?miRedirects=1">Dell</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/smci-stock?miRedirects=1">Super Micro Computer</a> also fell between 1% and 3% in Friday's trading session.Investors are paying close attention to new economic data, as murmurs grow of a potential interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in July following a spike in weekly jobless claims.A July interest rate cut currently has a likelihood of just a 10%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, though <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-july-economy-recession-forecast-housing-jobs-2024-6">one economist sees the odds of a cut at the July policy meeting closer to 60%.</a>Such a move by the Federal Reserve would be to ensure that an economic recession doesn't happen as inflation shows continued progress in falling.Economist <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sahm-rule-recession-indicator-fed-rate-cuts-labor-unemployment-contraction-2024-6">Claudia Sahm told CNBC on Friday that the Fed was "playing with fire"</a> by keeping interest rates higher for longer."My baseline is not recession," Sahm said. "But it's a real risk, and I do not understand why the Fed is pushing that risk. I'm not sure what they're waiting for."Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,464.63, down 0.16%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,149.64, up 0.04% (+15.87 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,689.36, down 0.18%</li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cardboard-box-recession-indicator-demand-prices-consumer-spending-rise-bofa-2024-6">America's 'cardboard-box recession' is finally over,</a> according to Bank of America.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/electricity-price-biggest-increases-us-regions-energy-bills-summer-heatwave-2024-6">These four US regions will likely see big electricity bill increases this summer,</a> according to the EIA.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-outlook-56-trillion-cbo-government-budget-deficit-gdp-2024-6">The US debt will soar to $56 trillion in the next 10 years</a> as government spending continues to outpace revenues, according to the CBO.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-stock-price-prediction-240-price-target-ai-leadership-iphone-2024-6">Apple stock received two price target increases to $240 per share on Friday,</a> representing potential upside of 14% from current levels.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-outlook-valuation-tsla-ai-elon-musk-wedbush-2024-6">A combination of AI and robotics will help catapult Tesla to a $1 trillion valuation,</a> according to Wedbush.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dropped 0.78% to $80.66 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.60% to $85.20 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> declined by 1.46% to $2,334.50 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.26%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> dropped 1.25% to $64,034.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks close mixed but gain for the week as the AI trade stumbles

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as traders took inflation data and the outlook for rates.</li><li>Inflation rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on a yearly basis, in-line with expectations.</li></ul>The latest inflation data dented some of the momentum of the post-election stock rally, with traders focusing on the latest consumer price index reading at its implications for rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up slightly, while the S&amp;P 500 ended the day nearly flat. Bond yields were little changed, with the 10-year Treasury yield up one basis point to 4.449%. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">Inflation was slightly higher</a> year-over-year in October compared to the prior month, but was on par with economists' expectations. Consumer prices rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on an annual basis, higher than last month's 2.4% increase.Investors solidified bets on another rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting. Markets see an 82% chance that the central bank will trim interest rates another quarter-point next month, up from 59% on Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Traders are less certain about another rate cut in January. The odds of another 25 basis point cut at the Fed's January meeting have dropped to 29%, down from 69% a month ago."Inflation data mostly support another rate cut at the Fed's December decision," Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, said in a note. "The Fed will wait until they have more clarity about the timing and scope of policy changes from the next President and Congress before reacting to them.""The Fed wants to avoid the mistakes of the past by prematurely easing and risking a second wave of inflation, so we'd expect the FOMC to take this risk seriously," Jason Pride, the chief of investment strategy &amp; research at Glenmede, said in a note. "This doesn't take a rate cut off the table for December, but it's certainly not a slam dunk."The rally fueled by Trump's election began to stumble, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edging slightly into the red.Crypto markets, though, continued to get a boost after Elon Musk, a close ally of Trump, was appointed as co-head of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dogecoin-price-elon-musk-doge-department-trump-crypto-president-election-2024-11?_gl=1*j5rjww*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUyNDI1NS41NTYuMS4xNzMxNTI0MjY2LjQ5LjAuMA..">Department of Government Efficiency</a>, or "DOGE." <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/doge-usd">Dogecoin</a> spiked another 15% on the news, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">bitcoin</a> rose as much as 6% before paring its gains, surpassing the $90,000 threshold for the first time ever before dipping back below to about $88,000 later in the day. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,985.38, up 0.02%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,958.19, up 0.11% (+47.21 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,230.74, down 0.26%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>Here's what people are betting in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-markets-jake-paul-mike-tyson-bitcoin-trump-2024-11?_gl=1*4l4ww*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUxNTY1NS41NTUuMS4xNzMxNTE4NTU0LjU2LjAuMA..">prediction markets</a> now that the election is over.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-upside-blackwell-rubin-apple-iphone-moment-2024-11">Nvidia is approaching its iPhone moment</a> with its Blackwell chip, and the stock could soar another 25%, an analyst said. </li><li>Trump could push <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-us-debt-levels-government-borrowing-treasury-blackrock-rick-rieder-2024-11">US debt to levels</a> that can't be ignored within his first year in office, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 0.09% to $68.08 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.46% to $71.95 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slipped 0.87% to $2,575.98 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was up one basis point to 4.449%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> slipped to $88,615.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors assess rate outlook after new inflation data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ken Griffin's market maker, Citadel Securities, is revamping its core trading infrastructure.</li><li>The firm has reassessed its tech stack as it eyes growth.</li></ul>In 2023, Citadel Securities COO of technology, Jeff Maurone, was meeting with senior leaders to discuss technology priorities for the year. But what started as a standard strategy meeting resulted in a yearslong re-evaluation and rebuild across the market maker's entire technology stack.Maurone said the meeting was a rallying cry for simplicity and walked away with an assignment he positioned like this: "Imagine if you were an airline, could you, on one PowerPoint slide, show 10 to 15 systems that fit together simply and together represent the only systems needed to get all the way from selling a ticket to delivering the passenger."Now, founder Ken Griffin's market maker is revamping its core trading infrastructure, which is the collection of systems and technologies that executes one in every four equity trades in the US.Over the past year or two, Maurone and Josh Woods, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citadel-securities-ceo-peng-zhao-olympics-career-advice-interns-2024-8">Citadel Securities</a>' chief technology officer, have been strategizing to consolidate redundancies, mitigate operational complexities, and reduce the cost of trading and entering new businesses. They're looking across the entire lifecycle of a trade as a blueprint for the rebuild.Since its inception in 2002, Citadel Securities has used predictive analytics, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citadel-securities-data-ken-griffin-markets-assets-2023-6">data</a>, and technology to allow buyers and sellers to trade assets by providing market liquidity. It uses algorithms to capture profit from small differences in prices. In the past two decades, the market maker has expanded in the types of clients it works with, the products it trades, and the exchanges where it trades.The goal is to prepare the firm for what lies ahead while delivering more resiliency and capabilities to clients today, Woods said."This is a way to, over time, keep your agility. I almost look at it as the stretching of business," Woods told Business Insider. "If you don't do these things, your technology stack eventually gets more rigid than you'd like, and then when you need to stretch, you're unable to."<h2 id="c49a2ec2-8ae0-4677-96cd-94e7f2168232">Building Citadel Securities' trading infrastructure of the future</h2>In the last few years, Citadel Securities pushed into credit trading, expanded its rates franchise, and introduced an institutional options offering. It has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-wall-street-executives-rising-stars-investing-trading-2024#gidan-dan-35-citadel-securities-13">scaled up its operations in Asia Pacific</a> and launched rates trading in EMEA; it is now active in more than 50 markets across 150 venues. As it grew, it developed a vast patchwork of different technology solutions to meet its needs.But as Citadel Securities looks to continue to grow, it needs to position its technology to easily break into new markets, asset classes, and geographies. The firm is aiming to do that by re-architecting key systems in a standard, global way, Maurone said."Part of this is just evolving the technology and being able to take a step back with fresh eyes and say, 'Well, now that we've built out a lot of these offerings across all these different markets with so many different types of counterparties, we just have a much bigger set of requirements that we're looking at,'" Woods said. "And so how do we look at all those and try to find the patterns and the best way of operating?"Take the diversity in exchanges, which vary dramatically in terms of fee structures, operating hours, and clearing requirements. Instead of relying on individual systems that cater to individual exchanges, the firm is aiming to adapt its back-end systems to be flexible enough to accommodate many exchanges and onboard new ones efficiently.Asset types are another area where there's lots of underlying variance, especially in terms of data structures. And differences in trading practices — from systematic to high-touch — will require Citadel Securities to rethink those underlying systems.Through several progressive changes to its tech stack, Maurone said he hopes that in 2025, the firm will be entirely trading in a system that reflects its goal to reduce operational complexity and redundancies."A lot of times, it requires reorienting how we look at the problem. Before, you couldn't really see the pattern because you're only looking at one little slice of the problem, but now that you see it across all these different domains, it becomes clear that there's more we can do," Woods said.<h2 id="9a4344c0-c7a7-4dfd-9e99-50d4262adc9b">How product managers are bridging business and technology</h2>Wall Street firms have long turned to consulting agencies, like McKinsey or Deloitte, to shepherd tech execs and other C-suites through a transformative process such as this. Instead, Citadel Securities has turned to an internal group of product managers and COOs — some of whom spent years working at consulting firms — to oversee the vision and execution of its technology.Building out this internal muscle, Maurone said, has filled a need that an external consultant never really could. "We need to live and breathe and own the strategy," Maurone said, adding that much of the software is created in-house. "You need the battle scars and the issues to shape the people who are building the solution," he said.<div type="image" title="A man smiles at his colleagues inside his New York office" height="2000" width="3000" msid="114467338" hostid="261" sizebytes="307174"></div>Each business or function has a COO backed by a team of product managers who partner closely with their business head. The operation is overseen by firmwide COO Matt Culek, who works closely with CEO Peng Zhao and President Jim Esposito on the firm's most challenging issues.Maurone's team supports Citadel Securities' technology organization, and he manages a team of 15 people. They set metrics, ensure engineers meet their delivery goals, and integrate customer feedback.Maurone, the first person with a product-management hired within the technology organization at Citadel Securities five years ago, has been slowly building out this team of product managers."Quite often, people in Jeff's org are thinking about the fundamental business problem we have," said Woods."They have a lot of impact and have on multiple occasions reshaped what we end up building, which is very different than what you'd get if somebody was just looking at the requirements," and following orders, Woods said.

Market-making giant Citadel Securities is rebuilding the tech that powers its trades as it eyes growth

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ambassador <keyword id="14466611" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="sarah-bianchi" source="Orion">Sarah Bianchi</keyword> said many COVID-related supply-chain disruptions "have been ironed out."</li><li>"A lot of what today's actions are, is to prepare for the future," she said during an interview with Insider.</li></ul>The earliest days of the COVID-19 pandemic presented an unprecedented challenge for countries around the globe, as world leaders were faced with managing a deadly virus while also keeping economies afloat amid masses of people retreating indoors due to lockdowns and business closures that shuttered entire industries.With the severity of the pandemic came major supply-chain disruptions, which, in 2020, impacted everything from cleaning supplies to toilet paper, and remained a salient issue when President <keyword id="99719" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="Orion">Joe Biden</keyword> took office in January 2021.In June 2021, Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/08/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-supply-chain-disruptions-task-force-to-address-short-term-supply-chain-discontinuities/">launched</a> the <keyword id="11894138" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="supply-chain" source="Orion">Supply Chain</keyword> Task Force, a key part of the administration's effort to strengthen the supply chain and boost American manufacturing, with the Office of the United States Trade Representative working with economic partners to focus on resiliency for critical products, including advanced batteries and semiconductors.But in February 2022, Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine, creating diplomatic tumult when <keyword id="11894140" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> and gas prices had already become a major concern in the US and many countries around the world.Sarah Bianchi, the deputy United States trade representative, told Insider that the war has impacted the supply chain by propelling inflation, while also pointing to Biden's efforts in seeking to tackle the issue."It's certainly a driver of inflation. With regard to high gas prices and energy prices, that has definitely contributed to higher gas prices," Bianchi said of the conflict."And that's why the president wrote to the leading oil refineries, encouraging them to put more capacity, more output in the near term, and trying to help with that supply chain challenge in particular — and encouraging them not to keep extra refinery profit margins well above normal, but to pass that on," she added.Below are excerpts from a conversation with Bianchi:What were some of the first steps that the administration took in tackling some of the bigger supply-chain issues?The very first issues had to do with things specifically related to the pandemic — trying to get things done with pharmaceuticals and medical supplies and other things. That was really step one. USTR is part of that effort. One of the things we've done is improve relationships with other countries around pharmaceutical approvals and inspections so that we can streamline it, so that things like medical equipment don't get bogged down in unnecessary issues.What were some of the things that the American Rescue Plan did to tackle <keyword id="12323779" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="supply-chain-issues" source="Orion">supply chain issues</keyword>?The administration has done a lot of things to address the supply chain. In fact, the president just signed <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/13/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-congressional-passage-of-ocean-shipping-reform-act/">the Ocean Reform Act</a>, which addressed late fees charged by carriers and terminals seeing astronomical profits. I think some of the things in the Rescue Plan specifically, were helping state and local governments stay solvent so they could provide services, helping Americans buy food and making that easier, helping consumer demand, and then a lot of help to small businesses through loans to try to keep the supply chain going. And then the vaccines were really instrumental in terms of getting the <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword> back, with people participating and working in-store, which helps with the supply chain crunch as well.<div type="image" title="Biden Port of Los Angeles" height="683" width="1024" msid="92907027" hostid="261" sizebytes="33870"></div>How has the administration tackled the computer chip shortages that have been prevalent since the start of the pandemic?The president is fighting for legislation on the Hill that would really diversify where chips are supplied from. I think we've done a lot of partnering with other countries to try to make the supply chain more resilient.David Adelman, the former ambassador to Singapore, recently <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/21/former-us-ambassador-says-lifting-china-tariffs-could-cut-inflation.html">said</a> on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that cutting tariffs on imported Chinese goods might take 1 percent off inflation in the United States. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen last month <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/tariffs-give-us-leverage-in-talks-with-china-top-trade-official-says/6628967.html">said</a> that some tariffs on Chinese imports serve "no strategic purpose." Is the administration still mulling over any changes?What the president has asked us to do is to take an overall look at the tariff structure to make sure we have a more strategic approach with China. So really, we're addressing some of the real concerns we have with the Chinese, such as their non-market practices and economic coercion, and then looking at where things might not be as strategic and reconsidering tariffs in that regard. That is a process that's ongoing for the president's direction and we intend to complete it in the near future.What are some big misconceptions that people have about supply-chain issues in the United States?A lot of things are working well today. A lot of the disruptions from the pandemic have been ironed out and we're seeking to make more progress. And a lot of what today's actions are, is to prepare for the future. Under the USMCA, we put in place a mechanism for Mexico, Canada, and the United States to coordinate early in the event of an emergency and make sure we don't have disruptions to the flow of trade in the future.Are there any sort of new trade initiatives that would be enacted with Taiwan?We've always had ongoing talks with Taiwan. We have a TIFA [Trade and Investment Framework Agreement] with them. We recently launched the US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade to try and address a number of issues that impact supply chain resiliency, including trade facilitation, good regulatory practices, and digital trade.What would you say are maybe one or two big long-term trade strategies that the administration will like to see implemented over the next four years?The initiative with Taiwan is really important. And then the other thing that we are really focused on right now is what we call our Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity. And that is designed to really <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/23/statement-on-indo-pacific-economic-framework-for-prosperity/">strengthen</a> our economic engagement in the Indo-Pacific region. Thirteen countries have joined. Under the trade pillar, we will address everything from digital trade to labor, environment, agriculture, and a whole range of things.

Top US trade official says the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been 'a driver of inflation,' while many COVID-related supply-chain disruptions 'have been ironed out'

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