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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Inflation accelerated as expected in October.</li><li>The consumer price index increased 2.6% from October 2023, matching the forecast.</li></ul>As expected by economic forecasters, inflation heated up in October.The consumer price index sped up as expected to a 2.6% year-over-year growth rate in October from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">September's rate of 2.4%</a>.Inflation had been cooling down for most of 2024. Before the latest reading, the last uptick in the headline year-over-year rate was in March.Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3% in October from a year ago, matching the forecast and the previous year-over-year increase.The Federal Reserve will likely want to see signs of inflation continuing to come down to its 2% target as Federal Open Market Committee members decide whether to continue cutting interest rates. There are still a lot of data releases to come out before the year's final scheduled FOMC meeting in December, including further reports for inflation measures like the CPI.The Fed decided in its November meeting to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cut interest rates by 25 basis points</a>, which was largely expected and smaller than <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">September's 50-basis-point cut</a>.Before the latest CPI report, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch</a> showed investors were assigning around a 60% probability to a 25-basis-point cut in December. After the CPI news release, that increased to around 70%.November's jobs report, to be published in early December, will also help Americans and the Fed better understand the labor market in the fall after employment readings in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/october-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-11">October</a> were surprisingly weak amid hurricanes and strikes."We're trying to be on a middle path where we can maintain the strength in the labor market while also enabling further progress on inflation," Fed chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference on November 7.This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

Inflation heated up in October as expected

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks climbed higher as traders took in inflation figures from October that were in-line with estiamtes.</li><li>Consumer prices rose 2.6% on a yearly basis last month and 0.2% for the month. </li></ul>US stocks ticked higher on Wednesday as traders took in fresh <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">inflation figures</a>, which were in line with economists' expectations. Major indexes edged up in early-morning trading, while bond yields slumped.Consumer prices grew 0.2% in the month of October and 2.6% on a year-over-year basis. The increase was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">slightly hotter</a> than last month's 2.4% price growth, but in line with expectations, which kept investors hopeful that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December meeting. Expectations for another 25 basis point rate cut in December solidified. Markets are pricing in a 82% chance the Fed will trim its target rate by another quarter-point, up from a 59% yesterday, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>."Given nervousness around the more inflationary aspects of Trump's policy proposals, markets appeared primed for an upside inflation surprise today," Seema Shah, the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in a note. "A December cut is still in the cards," she added.Still, the rise in the overall inflation rate makes the outlook for future Fed cuts uncertain, according to Skyler Weinand, the chief investment officer of Regan Capital."With Wednesday's CPI in line with expectations, but still stubbornly above the Fed's 2% goal, the Fed may have only one rate cut left in December before taking a pause from their easing path," Weinand said in a note.He continued: "The incredible move in the stock market postelection has effectively eased financial conditions for stock investors. This easing, combined with incoming fiscal stimulus, may warrant a pause on rate cuts by the Fed in the near future to allow the dust to settle and to process more incoming data."Assets that are part of the Trump Trade appeared to remain in-focus on Wednesday, with shares of Tesla rising as much as 3% while Dogecoin climbed 4% after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-tesla-spacex-x-department-government-efficiency-jobs-2024-11">Elon Musk was appointed</a> to co-head Trump's newly created Department of Government Efficiency, along with entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,988.06, up 0.07%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,988.08, up 0.18% (+77.10 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,285.65, up 0.03% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-top-performing-asset-2025-bull-rally-trump-2024-11">Stock exposure is at an 11-year high</a> after the election as investors see US stocks as the top-performing asset next year, BofA said. </li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-biggest-risk-trump-win-china-trade-war-2024-11">The biggest risk to stocks</a> after Trump's election victory is China's reaction to a trade war, according to one research firm.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dogecoin-price-market-value-ford-crypto-boom-trump-elon-musk-2024-11">Dogecoin surpassed Ford in value</a> as Trump's election win propelled the total crypto market cap to $3 trillion.</li><li>Here are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-rally-trump-trade-outlook-risks-inflation-yields-dollar-2024-11">3 risks that could derail the Trump trade in stocks</a>, according to Morgan Stanley.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil declined 1.07% to $67.39 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.92% to $71.23 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> edged up 0.61% to $2,612.10 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dropped six basis points to 4.365%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> climbed 4.29% to $89,642.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes edge higher after tame October inflation report

The Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) has started its three-day monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting in Mumbai on Tuesday. The meeting will conclude on Thursday, when the RBI will announce its decisions on the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> and other matters. The repo rate, which has been maintained at 6.5 per cent since it was last increased in February 2023, is widely expected by experts to remain unchanged for the ninth consecutive bi-monthly policy review. Experts highlight that <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> in India remains above the RBI's target range, making it unlikely that the central bank will implement policy cuts until inflation reaches the target of 4 per cent. However, the expert added that the RBI may consider rate cuts in the October meeting. Banking expert Ashutosh Khajuria commented: "Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may continue to hold the policy signalling Repo rate and wait for <keyword id="19979707" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Inflation" source="keywords">Consumer Price Inflation</keyword> to decisively fall below 4 per cent, the target rate. For the present, the continuation of the current stance is widely expected. MPC in India may change the stance and rate action by the beginning of the second half of the year in their October meeting at the earliest." The experts also noted that while <keyword id="20196112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="core-inflation" source="keywords">core inflation</keyword> has been contained and commodity prices, particularly metals, have dropped by 15-20 per cent from their 2024 peak, food inflation remains a concern and needs to be closely monitored to ensure stability in overall CPI numbers. The Managing Director of a major bank, who preferred not to be named, told ANI: "During the last policy meeting we could see some voting in favour of a <keyword id="19920203" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cut" source="keywords">rate cut</keyword>. At the same time, we could see The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on July 11 said it is too early to talk on the interest rate cut due to the uncertain economic environment and inflation remaining close to five per cent. Considering both, our expectation is that the rate cut cycle may start from the next meeting and no change in <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> this time." RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had also emphasised in the last policy briefing that food inflation is still a concern and that the regulator is not in a hurry to make a decision on rate cuts. A recent report by the State Bank of India (SBI) also noted that Consumer Price Inflation in India is expected to remain around 5 per cent for the financial year 2024-25, except for the months of September and October.

Repo rate cut unlikely in ongoing MPC meeting, but RBI may change it during October policy review: Experts

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may begin lowering <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> around October, provided that external factors like weather conditions and international commodity prices do not cause any disruptions, the credit rating agency, Crisil said in its report. The credit rating agency further anticipated that it expects "two rate cuts this fiscal." It said that the decision of the <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) decision to hold rates in its recent announcement was due to the elevated <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>. The climate conditions such as weather events are frequently changing and they need to be monitored. Going ahead, it anticipated that the macroeconomic environment would be better, creating a background for a rate cut. "The food challenge to a rate cut is expected to ease as agriculture prospects look better than last year. The monsoon has been above normal (7 per cent above the long period average as of August 7), and sowing has picked up across major foodgrains. As agriculture prospects become clearer by September, we expect it to pave the way for a rate cut," the S&amp;P's arm added in its report. In a move reflecting its cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties, the RBI has decided to keep the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5 per cent. The decision to keep the repo rate steady comes amidst persistent concerns about <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword>, which remains above the RBI's target range. The central bank's commitment to bringing inflation down to its 4 per cent target continues to face challenges due to ongoing food inflation and other economic factors. Noting a likely uptick in core inflation, the report added that factors such as international freight costs, geopolitical risks to crude oil prices, and hikes in domestic telecom tariffs could affect this indicator. Anticipating the growth, it added, "The pace of growth of the economy is expected to ease this year, with lower fiscal support as the government pursues <keyword id="20101140" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-consolidation" source="keywords">fiscal consolidation</keyword>." Announcing the MPC's decision on August 8, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das expected the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 7.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2024-25. Governor Das emphasized that the RBI remains vigilant regarding inflationary pressures and will take necessary actions to maintain price stability while supporting the country's economic recovery. The MPC's decision reflects a balanced approach, aiming to control inflation without stifling growth. The adjustments in repo rate have a direct effect on <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and job creation. The lower interest rates tend to stimulate economic growth by making borrowing cheaper for businesses.

RBI expected to begin rate cuts in October, with two reductions this fiscal: Crisil

<div type="image" title="In case RBI is in the mood to hike the interest, your home loan EMIs might end up taking more from your pockets. Or, if it leaves the rates unchanged, your EMIs wont budge one bit" msid="114284206" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;In case RBI is in the mood to hike the interest, your home loan EMIs might end up taking more from your pockets. Or, if it leaves the rates unchanged, your EMIs wont budge one bit&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> On September 18, 2024, the <keyword id="19951097" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-fed" source="keywords">US Fed</keyword> delivered a jumbo-sized surprise to the global economy. Not only did they trim their interest rates by a massive 50 basis points to bring their yields down to 5%, but also hinted at further rate cuts in the upcoming months. This move from the fed and several other central banks globally had pushed expectations high for a similar rate slash closer home, from the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> this month. But governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword>, in a “picture abhi baaki hai” moment, decided to hold the repo rates here steady, leaving them unchanged at 6.5% for the record 10th straight time. Although, he did tinker with the policy stand, changing it from “rate cuts are absolutely off the table” to a more accommodating “we’re okay with bringing down the rates, if needed”. This, rather neutral, stance from India’s financial custodian sparked hopes for a rate cut in December this year. However, the stubborn <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> levels in September have again dented such hopes. As consumers, you may be wondering what all the hullabaloo this is about, since it hardly makes a difference to your regular financial routine. Well, the majority of both economic growth and inflation is closely connected to this policy stance from the central bank and it does have a rather indirect effect on both our earnings and spending. But more directly, it would have clear implications for those looking to own a house. Even the slightest modification of interest rates, or the lack of it, influences the <keyword id="19916018" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="emi" source="keywords">EMI</keyword> you pay significantly. So, all aspiring homebuyers, is this the right time to take out a loan and buy a house? Can you expect a rate cut anytime soon, and what will that mean for your home-owning dreams? We lay it out. <h2>What’s the connection?</h2>You see, buying a house is no small feat, at least financially. The task becomes even more herculean if you are scouting for your own roof in cities like Delhi, Noida, Bangalore or Mumbai where, as Circuit from Munnabhai says, “room shuru hote hi khatam ho jata hai”. Naturally, you’ll have to take a <keyword id="6354730" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Home-loan" source="Orion">home loan</keyword> from the bank. Don’t be mistaken, the bank won't give you a loan that covers 100% of the value of the property you want to own. Rather, your loan amount will be equivalent to a certain percentage of the property’s total value. RBI’s guidelines on this are pretty clear: <ul><li>If your loan amount is up to Rs 30 lakh, you can get a loan worth 90% of the property’s value.</li></ul><ul><li>If the loan amount is between Rs 30 lakh and Rs 75 lakh, you are eligible for a loan worth 80% of the property’s value. </li><li>If you are taking a loan of more than Rs 75 lakh, your loan amount will be equivalent to 70% of the property’s value. </li></ul>Now assuming that you have the money, it's all about paying back the principal amount, but not without a little (read hefty) interest added on top. See, when you’re taking a home loan, you are actually signing up for a long-term, even multi-decadal financial commitment, which will unfailingly present itself to your bank accounts and finances every single month, in the form of EMIs, or equated monthly instalments). When you take a home loan, you can choose to pay the interest in two ways (talk about choices!). One is that you decide to keep a fixed rate of interest throughout the tenure of your home loan. So, if you opt for a 25-year fixed-rate home loan at the rate of 8.8% p.a., you’ll have to pay interest at this rate for the next 25 years, till your entire loan is paid off. Yes, you can go backsies and switch to a floating-rate home loan by paying a fee. Floating, as the name suggests, means that your interest rate is not set in stone. But starting October 2019, when it comes to a floating interest rate home loan, your payable interest and EMIs are directly impacted by any changes in <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword>, which were left unchanged by RBI this time around. Why are these two so chummy, you might ask. Well, <keyword id="173069" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Home-loan-interest" source="Orion">home loan interest</keyword> rates are a sum of two things: <ol><li>Repo Rate (the rate at which RBI lends money to banks)</li><li>Operational cost + margins</li></ol>Any plus or minus in this equation would send your home loan interests tanking, or skyrocketing. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat explains that any change in the repo rates impacts the cost of funds and thereby the home loan interest rates. “When the interest rates are expected to reduce, the corresponding impact will be in the form of a reduced EMI. Home loan borrowers should always try to borrow at a floating rate when interest rates are expected to reduce and at a fixed rate when the interest rates are expected to increase. This minimizes the outflow in the form of EMIs that the home loan borrowers will experience”, he continues. So, no change in repo rates means no change in your home loan interest payout and no financial relief whatsoever. A rate cut, which most experts are anticipating will start this December, would mean your EMI payments come down, and your wallet might save a little more. But there’s also a chance of an UNO reverse happening. In case RBI is in the mood to hike the interest, your home loan EMIs might end up taking more from your pockets. Consider this. You took a floating interest rate home loan worth Rs 50 lakh in January 2022 at 8% p.a., for a period of 20 years. This brings your total monthly EMI to Rs Rs 41,822. But, as luck would (or won't) have it, RBI raised the interest rate by 250 basis points between May 2022 and February 2023, bringing it to its current status of 6.5%. Some back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that now, your home loan interest payout will also rise by a hefty 2.5%, taking the total to 10.5%. In other words, you’ll have to dish out Rs 49,919 per month as EMI. Now, won't you heave a sigh of relief if the RBI were to bring down the interest rate by say, even 50 basis points, or 0.5%? Agreed, your EMI will come down just marginally, to Rs 48,251. But look at this over a 20-year period, and you’ll see how big the difference is. <h2>Are rates set to change anytime soon?</h2>Generally, RBI hikes the repo rates if it sees inflation spiralling out of control. Then, in a bid to reduce consumer spending, it raises interest rates to make borrowing expensive. But when the apex bank sees sluggish consumption in the economy, inflation in control and wants to boost spending, it slashes down on interest rates, making it more lucrative for people to borrow. As of now, most experts are not anticipating any changes in the interest rates anytime soon. This means home loans are not getting cheaper anytime soon. The CPI data, which came out yesterday, saw inflation rise to 5.49% in September, compared to 3.65% last month. Food and beverage prices jumped to a four-month high of 8.36% in September, as opposed to a 5.3% rise in August. So a rate cut seems a no-go at the moment! Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities explains that the RBI had probably expected a hardening of inflation and that's why it chose to hold on to the rates in the monetary policy announcement last week. “Now, it seems that RBI will take a cautious stance going ahead and will not be in a hurry into rate cuts like its global peers”, he added. In all this, one thing is clear, in the grand movie of the Indian economy, the RBI has chosen stability over drama. And just like in every good Bollywood film, we're left wondering what twist the sequel will bring. Until then, it might be “The End" for rate cuts, but the show must go on for the Indian economy!

Simply Put: Boom or bust — how RBI’s decision to leave rates unchanged affects homebuyers

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="20335345" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="McDonalds" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="McDonald's" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="McDonald's">McDonald's</keyword> global sales fell for the second consecutive quarter, down 1.5%.</li><li>Fast-food chains have faced challenges from <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>, affecting <keyword id="20139791" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-spending" source="keywords">consumer spending</keyword> habits.</li></ul>Global sales at McDonald's have fallen for a second consecutive quarter as the fast-food chain struggled in international markets, especially France, the UK, China, and the Middle East. Sales were down 1.5% in its third quarter, following from a 1% slide in the previous quarter, ending June 30. Comparable sales in the US were virtually flat, up 0.3% from the same period in 2023, while sales in international markets dropped 2.1%. Sales in licensed international markets fell 3.5%. "We will stay laser-focused on providing an unparalleled experience with simple, everyday value and affordability that our consumers can count on as they continue to be mindful about their spending," McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski said in the earnings release. While sales dropped, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trying-most-expensive-mcdonalds-switzerland-disappointing-fries-best-burger-2023-12">the Golden Arches</a>' revenue increased 3% to $6.9 billion, beating the $6.82 billion figure that was the consensus of analysts. Net income declined 3%, down to $2.26 billion, down from $2.32 billion in the last quarter. Shares in McDonald's fell 2.7% in premarket trade after the results were announced. Fast-food restaurants have struggled with food inflation since the COVID-19 pandemic. The most recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">US consumer price index</a>, released in early October, showed that the cost of food away from home rose 4% in the prior 12 months, significantly higher than gains in both grocery store prices and the overall CPI. Chains, including McDonald's, have responded to the soaring cost of ingredients and labor by raising menu prices. Consumers have felt the strain of rising costs. Analysts have said that some consumers are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-fast-food-is-so-much-more-expensive-value-affordable-2024-4">comparing the rising cost of fast food to the slowing rate of grocery inflation</a> and choosing to cook more often at home instead of eating out. Lower-income customers have particularly felt the pinch. "The decline in comparable sales signals that consumers continue to retrench from eating out," Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData's US retail and consumer division, told Business Insider. "Negative comparable sales and higher costs have also put some pressure on the bottom line where both operating and net income are down," he said. It's uncertain how the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-e-coli-outbreak-cases-rise-75-people-2024-10" target="_blank">recent E. </a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-e-coli-outbreak-cases-rise-75-people-2024-10" target="_blank">coli outbreak</a> in several states might affect McDonald's fourth-quarter results. One person died, and at least 75 were sickened. The Food and Drug Administration has said that the slivered onions on affected <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-quarter-pounder-ecoli-outbreak-why-important-sales-2024-10" target="_blank">Quarter Pounder burgers</a> were "a likely source of contamination," and the supplier of the topping <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-supplier-taylor-farms-recalls-onions-amid-e-coli-outbreak-2024-10" target="_blank">has issued a recall</a>. Correction: October 29, 2024 — An earlier version of this story overstated what has been confirmed about the recent <keyword id="22099782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="E-coli-outbreak" source="keywords">E. coli outbreak</keyword> linked to McDonald's. The FDA is still investigating the outbreak and has not conclusively settled on a cause, though it has said slivered onions from one of the chain's suppliers were "a likely source of contamination."

McDonald's sales dropped for the 2nd quarter in a row as customers keep tightening their belts

India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">Inflation's</a> downtrend may not be as straightforward as some investors think, according to Charles Schwab.</li><li>The brokerage firm pointed to elements that could push prices higher, like Trump's tariffs and tax cuts.</li></ul>The Fed's mission to lower consumer prices could soon face some snags — and there are a handful of signs investors should be watching out for to determine if prices are on the rise again, according to Charles Schwab.Strategists at the brokerage firm expect a "choppy" downward path for inflation, despite the fact that overall inflation in the US is cooling. In a new research note, the firm cited a number of pressures in the economy that could buck the disinflation trend and send prices back higher."We think inflation will continue to trend lower, but there are a few potential risks on the horizon, including Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, stronger-than-expected economic growth in recent months, and policy proposals by incoming US President Donald Trump," strategists wrote, pointing to the president-elect's plan to levy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-tariffs-will-impact-prices-technology-clothes-appliances-furniture-2024-11">tariffs</a> on US imports, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">cut taxes</a>, and potentially lower the supply of labor by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-immigration-jobs-arizona-economy-mass-deportation-employment-wages-2024-10">restricting immigration</a>."<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">Tariffs</a> tend to act as a one-time price increase as the costs are passed from importing companies to consumers. Similarly, tax cuts have been proposed that could provide more stimulus to an economy already growing at a healthy pace. Immigration reform could mean higher labor costs," the note added.Trump has pushed back on the notion that his economic plan is inflationary, and said he would lower prices for Americans during his second term. He levied tariffs during his first term as president without a significant inflation surge, but experts say the tariffs Trump would impose this time around are far more wide-sweeping, explaining the difference in inflation forecasts.Meanwhile, the Fed may already be facing some resistance in its goal to get <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">inflation</a> back down to 2%. Prices rose 2.6% year-per-year in October, in-line with what economists had expected, but hotter than the prior month's 2.4% increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics."Looking forward, though, it's worth assessing potential risks to disinflation," Schwab added.Strategists flagged four things in markets that could signal if inflationary pressures in the economy are picking up:<h2 id="41d73f46-2e9d-46d7-89ba-4c38f91b2650">1. Labor costs rising</h2>Labor costs have accelerated in recent months, with unit <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ULCNFB">labor costs</a> among all workers in the business sector rising to 3.4% year-over-year in the third quarter, according to Federal Reserve data.<div type="image" title="Chart showing unit labor costs" height="1240" width="1420" msid="115383807" hostid="261" sizebytes="47210"></div>Higher wages are considered <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-causes-inflation#:~:text=When%20people%20anticipate%20higher%20inflation,as%20a%20wage%2Dprice%20spiral.">inflationary</a>, as they raise costs for businesses and could lead firms to hike prices, a dynamic known as a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/salary-negotiations-inflation-expectations-economy-2022-11">wage-price spiral</a>."It's too soon to say whether that uptrend will continue, but if labor supply is restricted and ends up putting upward pressure on wages, faster unit labor cost growth could unleash further momentum in inflation," Schwab strategists said.<h2 id="3bc506f7-2207-403b-a65c-f253e9941afb">2. The relationship between stocks and bonds</h2>Stocks typically move opposite to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/bond-yield">bond yields</a>, as higher interest rate expectations priced into the bond market would be bearish for equity prices.The rolling 120-day correlation between the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> and the yield on the benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years">10-year US Treasury</a> has ticked into positive territory, which means stocks and yields are rising in tandem due to expectations of strong economic growth.If the correlation moves back into negative territory, that could signal greater concern over inflation in the economy, strategists said.<div type="image" title="Chart showing stock and bond yield correlation" height="1241" width="1656" msid="115383805" hostid="261" sizebytes="46810"></div>"If the correlation flips back into negative territory, though, that would be consistent with inflation (again) being the main driver of downside risk for stocks," the firm wrote. "It's too soon to say that will be the case, but the risk is worth monitoring as we start to turn the corner into 2025."<h2 id="52c75ff6-d092-4b23-9c06-94ea3840e795">3. Rising Treasury yields</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11">Yields</a> have been climbing ever since Trump secured his second-term in office, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.4% the day after the vote, its highest level since early July.<div type="image" title="Chart showing 10-year US Treasury yield" height="1064" width="1283" msid="115383804" hostid="261" sizebytes="33954"></div>The increase is reflective of higher interest-rate expectations in the market, a sign that investors are concerned about future inflationary pressures."Concerns about a rebound in inflation on the back of stronger-than-expected economic growth since September, and the potential for expansive fiscal policy are the major drivers. Markets are beginning to dial back expectations for further rate cuts in response to inflation concerns," Schwab strategists said.<h2 id="1a1f6685-af6f-424d-abf4-e9e18ac4ef79">4. Economic momentum is building.</h2>The economy looks to be growing stronger than investors expected — another factor that could fuel inflation. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-economic-surprise-index-2013-12">Citi Economic Surprise Index</a> has soared in recent months, climbing from a level of around -50 this summer to 40 as of November.<div type="image" title="Chart showing Citi Economic Surprise Index against 10-year yield" height="939" width="1626" msid="115383808" hostid="261" sizebytes="65916"></div>"Stronger growth suggests that the Fed may not lower short-term rates as much as anticipated just a few months ago. Adding to the shift in the view of Fed rate path is the likelihood of higher inflation under proposed policies from the incoming administration," strategists said."We expect the Federal Reserve to continue with rate cuts over the next few months if inflation continues to trend lower. However, we are assuming a slower and shallower path of rate cuts in 2025 than we did just a month ago," they continued.Expectations for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-fed-powell-comments-rate-cut-odds-rally-2024-11">Fed rate cuts</a> have pulled back in recent weeks as traders digest Trump's election victory and ready for a new chapter in the economic narrative. The odds that the Fed will pause its rate-cutting cycle in December rising to 42%, up from 14% odds priced in a month ago, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.

4 signs of re-inflation investors should watch out for, Charles Schwab says

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19935006" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Guyana" source="keywords">Guyana</keyword>, the tiny South American nation, plans to give $500 to every citizen aged 18 and over.</li><li>Its president said the <keyword id="21044249" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cash-payments" source="keywords">cash payments</keyword> aim to narrow disparities and help with higher living costs.</li></ul>The world's fastest-growing economy is giving the equivalent of $500 to each of its adult citizens as it works to share its newfound oil wealth and soften the sting of higher living costs. President <keyword id="21170274" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mohamed-Irfaan-Ali" source="keywords">Mohamed Irfaan Ali</keyword> of Guyana, the South American country with just 800,000 people, announced the move last week and said his government would begin distributing the cash immediately. He previously said each household would receive the Guyanese-dollar equivalent of $1,000, but switched to an individual payment after locals raised concerns about how a household would be defined and how the money would be shared within each home. "This is how we are promoting prosperity, ownership, distribution of wealth," Ali said. "This is how the resources and revenue of this country are being spent every single day to lift the lives of people, to expand national wealth, coastal wealth, and community wealth." Guyanese authorities have taken other steps to combat the rising cost of living, the post noted. They've removed more than 200 taxes and fees, including the excise tax on fuel and VAT on water, electricity, and some basic foods. They also gave a one-time, tax-free grant worth about $120 a person to a group that included teachers and public servants last year. Nicolas Suarez, a senior economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence who covers Latin America, told Business Insider the original plan would "increase the average household's disposable income, alleviating some budget constraints." He estimated the initial program's scale at 1.5% of national GDP and 7.9% of Guyana's Natural Resource Fund, which officials set up in 2019 to prudently manage the country's oil revenues. The scale of the updated plan is less clear. World Health Organization data suggests there are about 711,000 Guyanese aged 15 and over, so if we assume the 18+ population is 660,000 people and all of them receive $500 each, the program could cost $330 million —not far off the government's estimate of $290 million for the original household payout. "In the short term, this measure could boost private consumption growth, but it may not ease <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword>ary pressures," Suarez said about the previous plan. "On the contrary, higher government expenditures could lead to significant inflationary pressures over the next 12 months." He noted that inflation in Guyana has climbed from a pre-pandemic average of 2.3% a year to 3.3% in August. He noted that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">inflation</a> in Guyana has climbed from a pre-pandemic average of 2.3% a year to 3.3% in August. <h2>Riding an oil wave</h2>Guyana, an English-speaking former colony that gained independence from Britain in 1966, borders Venezuela to the west, Brazil to the south, and Suriname to the east. Its natural resource fund is similar to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-to-dump-russian-assets-ukraine-invasion-2022-2">Norway's oil fund</a>, set up in the 1990s to invest profits from the Scandinavian nation's oil-and-gas sector, protect the economy from fluctuations in energy revenues, and serve as a financial reserve and long-term savings plan for Norwegians. Norway's gas-powered sovereign wealth fund has helped to make it one of the world's wealthiest countries with an estimated population of 5.5 million and a GDP per capita of about $88,000 last year, according to World Bank data. Its oil fund held over $1.7 trillion of assets at the end of June, or more than $300,000 per Norwegian citizen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-chevron-hess-guyana-oil-economy-berkshire-hathaway-stock-2023-10">Exxon</a>, which has discovered an estimated <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-market-outlook-opec-price-cuts-us-crude-production-guyana-2023-12">11 billion barrels of oil equivalent</a> off Guyana's coastsince 2015, forecasts the country will produce about 1.3 million barrels a day once the company's six projects are online in 2027. That amount rivals Qatar's current output and would rank Guyana among the world's 20 largest oil producers. Guyana ramped up production to more than 600,000 barrels a day earlier this year, fueling roughly 50% <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-market-guyana-economy-crude-production-outlook-opec-price-cuts-2023-12">GDP growth</a> in the first half and putting Guyana on track to grow about 43% this year, Ali said in an August webcast. Real GDP soared by about 62% in 2022 then 33% in 2023, while GDP per capita has surged from $7,000 in 2020 to around $26,000 this year, International Monetary Fund data shows. <h2>Sharing the wealth</h2>Guyana's payment to its people "sounds like great news," Karl Widerquist, a philosophy professor at Georgetown University-Qatar and the author of several books about universal basic income (UBI) told BI. He described the one-time distribution as "basic capital" or a "stakeholder grant" instead of a basic income, but said "it's a big step in that direction if they go through with it." UBI typically refers to a recurring cash payment made to every individual in a society regardless of their wealth, with no restrictions on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-people-spend-universal-basic-income-ubi-food-housing-transportation-2024-4">how the money is spent</a> and no requirement to pay it back. Proponents hail it as a safety net against poverty that relieves financial strain and frees people to change jobs, start businesses, and weather periods of bad luck without stressing about paying their bills. Guyana's one-off, unconditional cash grant is a "positive step," Cleo Goodman, the basic income lead at the Autonomy Institute think tank, told BI. "This is a welcome injection of cash for citizens." However, she noted a guaranteed, regular income would be a "much more comprehensive commitment to redistributing this newfound wealth." Guyana was colonized by the Netherlands before Britain gained control in the late 18th century. The nation, which shares borders with Venezuela, Brazil and Suriname, became independent in 1966. Correction: October 18, 2024 — An earlier version of this story mistakenly reported an outdated version of the policy. Guyana announced Wednesday it had decided to give the equivalent of $500 to every adult, rather than a higher amount to each household as previously planned. The story also misstated the value of the previously announced figure in US dollars. It was $1,000 a household, not $2,000.

This tiny country says it will give $500 to every adult as an Exxon oil boom supercharges its economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Expect a re-acceleration of inflation for the rest of 2024 into 2025, says Michael Landsberg.</li><li>High shipping rates and daily living expenses indicate that inflation could be worse than expected.</li></ul>A few months ago, it seemed like the war on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/higher-long-term-inflation-outlook-investing-strategy-attractive-bonds-stocks-2024-10">inflation</a> had been won.Wall Street strategists were expecting inflation to continue cooling down into 2025, clearing the way for a series of consistent rate cuts as the Federal Reserve insisted price increases were no longer a threat. In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that prices rose 2.4% from last year — closing in on the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, wasn't so sure. He saw signs in the market pointing to a re-acceleration of inflation in the last few months of 2024 and into 2025.Now, it seems like Landsberg may be right. After a Trump victory, concerns about inflation are creeping up again as proposed policies such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-hit-company-stock-profits-hardest-china-investing-manufacturing-2024-11">tariffs</a> could push prices up. And as the October CPI report showed, inflation is back on the rise, with prices increasing 2.6% year-over-year. In an interview with Business Insider, Landsberg shared the economic indicators he's watching to monitor inflation and the best way to prepare your portfolio in case of another flare up.<h2 id="7dc40d47-f3ee-4de6-bd68-d838e6c9299f">'Higher for longer'</h2>Inflation could rise to 3% as early as January and hit a mid-3% level in 2025, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to continue its rate-cutting cycle, in Landsburg's view. He's expecting the Fed to pause rate cuts in December.Landsberg believes the Bureau of Labor Statistics' metrics aren't providing the full inflation picture. He's keeping his eye out on other economic indicators that provide a more on-the-ground look at inflation levels.First, rising Chinese shipping rates are a telling sign of inflation. China is one of the US' biggest trading partners, so an increase in transportation costs between the two countries will likely trickle down and reflect in consumer prices.Geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea are contributing to the price increases, as shipping companies are forced to detour and choose longer and more expensive routes, according to Landsberg.With <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-fed-rate-cuts-red-sea-attacks-panama-canal-shipping-2024-1">12% of global trade</a> passing through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea region is a critical trade route for consumer basics such as oil, cars, raw materials, and electronic components. As a result, these blockades are putting pressure on global supply chains and shipping costs.<div type="image" title="Shanghai Containerized Freight Index" height="663" width="1185" msid="115308890" hostid="261" sizebytes="33696"></div>The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, which tracks the current spot freight rates for containerized cargo departing from Shanghai, China, has remained elevated in 2024 after spiking earlier this year due to the continued blockade of the Red Sea by Houthi rebels."Shipping costs don't affect margins of companies as much as they're going to affect people's wallets, and that's not getting looked at," Landsberg said.Landsberg also points to the high prices of commodities and everyday necessities. Food prices and rents are still rising. In some East Coast metro areas, rents have risen over double digits since last year, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.redfin.com/news/rental-tracker-october-2024/">Redfin</a>.Insurance prices are another strong indicator of inflation, whether it be for cars or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/states-most-at-risk-climate-change-rising-home-insurance-premiums-2024-10">homes</a>."Inflation in insurance, which everyone has to have all the time, is up double digits year-over-year," Landsberg said. "That affects people's wallets certainly more than just a printed CPI number."That's not to mention the potential of wage inflation. According to October's employment report, hourly wage growth was up 4% from this time last year. If Trump clamps down on immigration, then that number could go even higher as the supply of workers falls, pushing up the cost of labor.<h2 id="102f3015-2817-4d7e-8b5c-6ea2e030d247">Rebalance your portfolio</h2>Diversification is key in an inflationary environment by spreading out risk between sectors and asset classes, but you might be less diversified that you think, according to Landsberg.One mistake that Landsberg sees investors making is doubling down too much on a specific investment theme. Investors bullish on AI may have devised creative ways to play the AI trade outside of the technology sector, such as buying data center real estate investment trusts and utility stocks. This can give them a false sense of security in their portfolio, as it seems like they're exposed to multiple different sectors.However, if all of your investments across sectors are based on the AI theme, you won't experience much derisking.Landsberg points to the market selloff in August this year, where utilities and real estate indices fared better than technology, but individual real estate and utilities stocks with significant exposure to data centers didn't perform so well."I tell people now that we need to be diversified on themes, not just on sectors," Landsberg said. Some other secular growth themes that Landsberg believes will drive stocks include an aging population, cybersecurity, and alternative energy.In addition to making sure you're sufficiently diversified, there are some other steps that you can take to protect your portfolio from inflation. Landsberg identified a few inflation-benefitting trades such as energy, financials, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-in-gold-price-record-highs-safe-haven-2024-10">gold</a>.Some funds that provide exposure to these sectors include the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/the-energy-select-sector-spdr-fund-us81369y5069?miRedirects=1">XLE</a>), the iShares US Financials ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-us-financials-etf-us4642877884?miRedirects=1">IYF</a>), and the Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/goldman-sachs-physical-gold-etf-us38150k1034?miRedirects=1">AAAU</a>)As the end of the year draws near, Landsberg recommends taking a look at your portfolio and rebalancing some positions. If you're overexposed to technology and AI, now is a good time to put money in more inflation-resistant areas.Ultimately, make sure you're investing in high-quality companies with a robust financial profile, he said."You need to have a portion of your portfolio that will do well if inflation starts to move back higher," Landsberg said. "You want companies with pricing power, companies with earnings growth."

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