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Both mid-cap and small-cap mutual fund schemes have continued to attract significant investor interest, having garnered about Rs 30,350 crore in inflows during the April-September period of the current financial year. Last year, as data from <keyword id="6359050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AMFI" source="Orion">AMFI</keyword> showed, the total inflows in both these segments during the same period were only marginally higher at Rs 32,924 crore. Data from Value Research suggests that mid-cap funds have generated 46.25% returns over the past year, while small-cap funds have yielded returns worth 44.17% during the same time. This is far better than their 3-year returns, which stand at 20.67% for midcaps and 21.64% for smallcaps. The returns further moderate over 5 years to 32.44% for small caps and 27.94% for midcaps. Inflows in mid- and small-cap funds have only grown from strength to strength during the current year, despite market watchdog <keyword id="35210" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SEBI" source="Orion">SEBI</keyword> repeatedly highlighting the high risks both these categories entail. Between January and March 2024, small-cap funds saw inflows worth Rs 6,085.27 crore, while mid-cap funds were a little behind, garnering inflows worth Rs 4,887.05 crore. Between April and June this year, small-caps saw inflows worth Rs 7,196.8 crore. At the same time, midcaps saw inflows worth Rs 6,926.60 crore. In line with this increase in inflows, the number of investors (folios) in the two schemes shot up by 1.32 crore year-on-year to nearly 4 crore in the six-month period ended September 30, 2024. Since 2020, the small-cap universe (i.e., companies with a market cap of less than Rs 2000 crores) has grown nearly fourfold, offering investors a wide range of investment opportunities. Data from Trust Mutual Fund also shows that small-cap funds have also emerged as great generators of long-term wealth. Between August 2014 and August 2024, the <keyword id="6354813" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="Orion">Nifty</keyword> 100 total return index (TRI) has yielded a CAGR of 14.7%. In contrast, the Nifty smallcap 250 TRI has registered a CAGR of 18.2% "Small caps will continue to grow at a faster rate for years to come. I expect the inflows to continue as Indians want to invest in the high-growth sectors. Small-cap funds should be seen as an integral part of one's portfolio allocation and not a tactical play," Trust Mutual Fund CEO Sandeep Bagla told PTI. Individually, mid-cap funds saw an inflow of Rs 14,756 crore, and small-cap funds attracted Rs 15,586 crore in the first half of FY25. This aggregates the total inflow to Rs 30,342 crore, the data showed. In addition, the stress test in March 2024 has also played a role, reinforcing confidence by ensuring that fund managers are prepared to handle market volatility, Feroze Azeez, Deputy CEO, Anand Rathi Wealth Ltd, said. "With the mid-cap and small-cap segments projected to grow at 20 percent and 25 percent, respectively, in FY25, we expect inflows to remain strong, especially as SIP inflows continue to hit new peaks," he told media.

Investors pour in Rs 30,350 crore in mid and small cap funds in the first half of 2024

Indian banks are expected to have steady growth in earnings and returns over the next 3–4 years, according to a recent report by Jefferies. It expects a 13% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in loan growth for banks between FY24 and FY27, helmed by a supportive environment and expected adjustments in interest rates. "We expect steady growth in earnings and stable returns, Over FY24-27, the banks we cover should see 13% CAGRin loans We factor 25-50 bps cut in rates, &amp; depending on timing, NIMs will move," the report said. Depending on the timing, these rate cuts could impact banks' <keyword id="20076541" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-interest-margins" source="keywords">net interest margins</keyword> (NIMs), which measure the difference between interest income generated and interest paid to depositors. The report also notes that banks' net interest income (NII), a critical metric that is reflective of how much a bank earns from its lending, could grow at a steady 12% CAGR, which would support overall earnings growth. <h2>Rate cuts probable next year</h2>Per SBI Mutual Fund's monthly outlook for November 2024, while markets were initially speculating possible rate reductions in December this year or February next year these chances now stand dampened due to two reasons. First, elevated CPI numbers in September, which stood at a nine-month high, underlined the stickiness of food inflation. Secondly, RBI governor Das recently highlighted his hawkish stance at a conference, stating that "rate cuts at this stage would be premature and risky’. The report further adds that February 2025, or even April, would be a better time to discuss repo rate cuts in India. Even <keyword id="19985925" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-credit-growth" source="keywords">bank credit growth</keyword> has continued to outpace deposit growth for two years now. However, they seem to be inching closer in the recent past. For instance, in October 2024, while bank credit growth remained at 12.7%, the deposit growth rate followed closely at 11.8%. This also means that banks are witnessing an elevated bank credit-to-deposit ratio, standing at 77% in October. <h2>Risks in unsecured lending </h2>However, Jefferies noted some areas of caution that could influence growth in other revenue streams, particularly fees. Growth in fees may be at risk due to expected declines in the disbursal of unsecured loans, which generally carry higher interest rates and generate higher fees for banks. October saw stress and defaults rising in the unsecured lending space, prompting the RBI to intervene. As a result, unsecured loans by banks have only grown by 12.1%, the lowest since the pandemic. Despite these risks, the report expects banks' return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) to remain healthy, underscoring the sector's stable profitability potential. The report also highlights that while the Nifty Banks index has risen by 19% over the past year, it has still underperformed the broader Nifty index, which delivered 27% returns in the same period. BSE Bankex has been along similar lines, generating returns worth 19% over one year. While the Nifty banks' index has a YTD (yield to date) of 7.63%, it continues to trail Nifty's YTD of 11.30%

Indian banks to have steady growth in earning over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report

<keyword id="19955368" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="budget-2024" source="keywords">Budget 2024</keyword>, which is set to be presented on July 22nd, is set to accelerate the growth of <keyword id="20459350" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-stock-markets" source="keywords">Indian stock markets</keyword> by as much as 20%, a recent survey by <keyword id="19897999" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bloomberg" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bloomberg" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bloomberg">Bloomberg</keyword> noted. While some respondents hope that the <keyword id="20983733" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSE-Nifty50" source="keywords">NSE Nifty50</keyword>, which is currently trading at 24,273.35 points, might reach 26,000 points by the end of this year, others estimate the index to inch up even higher. The budget is likely to boost consumer spending, accelerate consumption, and support infrastructure development, noted half of the 24 experts Bloomberg surveyed. Data by Bloomberg Intelligence predicted that the estimated earnings per share (EPS) of companies on the MSCI India Index is set to rise by 15.6% on year basis, for the calendar year 2024. In contrast, Chinese firms are expected to grow at about 10%. One-fourth of surveyed analysts noted that pushing capital expenditure would be the government's top priority, while the other half thought the focus would be on boosting consumer demand. Naturally, analysts see potential growth in consumer discretionary stocks in the months to come, followed by financial services. <h2>Focus on Women, Capex</h2>Many are expecting the government to raise the standard deduction threshold from the current Rs 50,000 to Rs 1,00,000. The government is also thinking of raising the limits of the <keyword id="19930663" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Public-Provident-Fund" source="keywords">Public Provident Fund</keyword> (PPF) from Rs 15,000 to Rs 25,000. As per Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director of IPE Global, "the budget is expected to be tilted towards adopting a strategy for the underprivileged, youth, farmers, and women. The budget is expected to reflect the government’s tried and tested formula of ‘guarantees’ by opting for income transfer policies and spending more on welfare schemes in government campaigns in India. Allocations for existing schemes such as 'Housing for All’, MGNREGA, and health insurance for these sections of society are likely to increase while new schemes may be introduced". According to Badal Yagnik, CEO of Colliers India, the real estate segment is optimistic regarding this budget: "Housing, infrastructure development, sustainability, and digitization will remain at the core of the budget, which will go a long way in supporting real estate growth across segments in the long term. EV infrastructure, renewable energy, and green financing will continue to remain in focus, creating a strong base for a sustainable future. Incentivization of green buildings through minimum alternate tax or tax breaks similar to the infrastructure sector will be particularly beneficial. Meanwhile, retail investors are calling for additional rationalizing of the capital gains tax structure. The Union Budget 2024–25 should explore initiatives to boost greater retail engagement in REITs and InvITs". Anooshka Soham Bathwal, founder of Dhanvesttor, a financial management platform, expects that the government's focus is likely to keep driving the increased participation of women in the workforce in the upcoming full budget, where it can attain the same by incentivising higher education for women. "To promote entrepreneurship, the government can introduce special benefits for the businesses started by women. Further steps towards a stable policy environment and ease of doing business are also desirable. Incentives on tax, funding, and growth for women-centric organizations can help to further attain the inclusive growth objective of government". Bathwal also emphasized that the budget should promote entrepreneurs and the country's startup system. "Entrepreneurs are advocating for additional tax breaks for investors and promoters to attract more domestic capital. As India progresses towards becoming a global hub for entrepreneurship and innovation, fostering both technological and process innovations is crucial. Significant improvements in ongoing training and skill upgrades are vital, particularly given the rapid growth in Tier 2 and Tier 3 markets. Additionally, the government needs to address the credit challenges faced by SMEs", she continued Also read <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/budget-2024-heres-what-indias-elderlies-want/articleshow/111486023.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink">Budget 2024: FM might delight India's senior citizens this time around</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/union-budget-2024-25-when-will-it-be-presented-what-to-expect-and-more/articleshow/111014203.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink">Union budget 2024-25 : When will it be presented, what to expect and more</a>

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Investors pour in Rs 30,350 crore in mid and small cap funds in the first half of 2024

BI India Bureau

Indian banks to have steady growth in earning over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report

BI India Bureau

Budget 2024 to fuel stock markets: Bloomberg Survey

Ira Alok Puranik

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