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It took something surprisingly small — something that's been described as "teeny tiny" and "ultra-cropped" — to propel <keyword id="19948011" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Prada" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Prada" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Prada">Prada</keyword> to its place as one of the year's few luxury winners. In fact, it measures under 10 inches long. <keyword id="20885719" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Miu-Miu" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Miu Miu" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Miu Miu">Miu Miu</keyword>'s micro miniskirt, which debuted in 2021 and subsequently went viral, taking over both TikTok and magazine front covers, is emblematic of the brand's show-stopping couple of years — and has no doubt helped its parent company, Prada, do what few luxury companies have been able to do this year: grow. "I think the 'miracle' at Prada is Miu Miu," Luca Solca, a senior analyst at Bernstein, told Business Insider. Thanks to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/miu-miu-revenue-jumps-93-gen-z-asia-sales-prada-2024-7">Miu Miu's hot streak</a>, as well as a series of smart business moves at Prada itself — a focus on a controlled retail pipeline and store productivity, plus some experienced new hires — the company is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zara-inditex-pandora-thrive-amid-luxury-downturn-aspirational-consumer-trends-2024-9">bucking negative luxury trends</a>. It's selling well in Asia, its stock is up, and investors are excited. Net revenue for the first half of the year was 14% higher than in the same period in 2023 and 34% more than 2022. At luxury bellwethers LVMH and Kering, first-half sales fell 1% and 11%, respectively, compared to last year.Its stock is up more than 30% year-to-date, even more than that of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hermes-became-ultimate-status-symbol-2024-2">Hermès, luxury's perennial market leader</a>. Along with Moncler, it's one of only two buy-rated luxury stocks at HSBC. The 111-year-old, family-run, Milanese leather goods shop turned cutting-edge fashion superhouse is now enjoying one of its greatest runs in history. <h2>The trendy little sister</h2>As any elder sibling knows well, sometimes the flashy, fun younger sister can outshine even the most well-prepared eldest. Miu Miu is doing just that. The more experimental brand has become the "It" girl of the fashion industry. It's number two on The Lyst Fashion Index, a quarterly measure of the hottest fashion brands. Searches for Miu Miu are up 47% this year on luxury resale platform The RealReal. The micro minis that stormed the runway in 2021, a sneaker collab with New Balance, and the quilted Wander bags have become must-have looks. That's translated into impressive results: <keyword id="19957111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-sales" source="keywords">Retail sales</keyword> were up 50% in 2023 and 86% in the first half of this year. Last quarter, website traffic was up 110% year over year, Stifel's Rogerio Fujimori reported in his July note. The brand will likely hit $1 billion in revenue this year. <div type="image" title="Miu Miu micro miniskirt" height="3109" width="4663" msid="113815737" hostid="261"></div>Part of it is the brand's messaging. "Miu Miu is resonating with consumers because of a savvy mix of product and communication marketing," Solca said. In a recent note, he highlighted the brand's events — a tennis club, literary club, and film series — that go beyond just fashion to form a "cultural aesthetic." Miu Miu has embraced stars (Sydney Sweeney and Gigi Hadid were featured in recent campaigns), which has energized its following. The brand has also managed to tap into Asian markets — one of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-luxury-retail-sales-slowdown-brands-fashion-2024-7">most challenging sectors for luxury brands</a>. Again, some smart marketing has helped. The brand enlisted K-pop icons as ambassadors and dressed Chinese stars Lexie Liu, Zhao Jinmai, and Wu Yanshu. It also increased spending on Little Red Book, a social media platform in China, and threw events in Tokyo, Taipei, and Nanjing. In short — pun intended — you can't get trendier than Miu Miu right now, and being trendy is good for business. <h2>The business behind the boom</h2>But Miu Miu's popularity, as attention-grabbing as it is, is only part of the story. The brand accounted for 15% of Prada's sales last year. HSBC analysts called its growth a "(big) cherry on the cake" — the cake being Prada (which didn't respond to a request for comment from Business Insider for this story). Behind Miu Miu's Mary Jane shoes and Arcade bags is a success story at its parent company. The group's namesake line is growing, albeit at a slower and steadier pace. Prada's retail sales were up 3% in the first half of the year compared to last year and 7% in 2023. It's been among Lyst's top five hottest brands since 2022. This didn't happen by accident: In 2017, Prada committed to a turnaround strategy following a few losing yearsand a drop in profitability. At more than 100 years old, Prada hadn't entered the new millennium: Its full product line wasn't available through e-commerce, and its advertising wasn't digitized. "In 2015, the tide really turned for them," Jelena Sokolova, a senior analyst for Morningstar, told Business Insider. "They fared worse than the industry: Sales were negative for a number of years; their earnings plummeted." In response, Prada focused on retail, a channel in which it can control prices and cut back on wholesale, which now represents only 11% of sales. It made an effort to cut down on discounts — a problem that has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-burberry-became-fashions-biggest-fail-stock-drop-ceo-ousting-2024-8">plagued labels like Burberry</a> and Gucci and can lead to diminishing brand perception. At its retail stores, new CEO Andrea Guerra, who arrived in 2023 from LVMH, has drilled down on productivity, or how much money each square foot of retail space generates, by launching in-store installations, forming one-to-one relationships between sales associates and customers, and infusing stores with wearable pieces and collaborations. The company closed stores that weren't performing and renovated the ones that were. It's worked: Retail productivity has increased 32.5% between 2019 and 2023. <div type="image" title="Prada store" height="3333" width="5000" msid="113815742" hostid="261"></div>There has also been a slew of management changes. In 2020, the company brought on Raf Simons, heralded as one of the biggest stars in the design world, as co-creative director, sharing the title with Muccia Prada — the company's billionaire heiress who The New York Times has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/04/style/miu-miu-chanel-louis-vuitton-paris-fashion-week.html">referred</a> to as "the most influential woman in fashion." Prada now has more time to use her keen sense of design at Miu Miu. In the years following, it recruited talent from LVMH and Goldman Sachs to join its top ranks. And then there is the sheer cyclicality of fashion and the fact that, after a few years of being less-than-hot, Prada is once again on the rise. It has embraced the 1990s and Y2K aesthetic — a heyday for Prada — popular with Gen Z and was the most searched brand among the demographic on The RealReal. Hit products pushed the profitable leather goods category to revenues of more than $2 billion last year. There was a reimagining of the early 2010s it-bag, the Galleria, complete with a Scarlett Johansson-led campaign. Other handbag rereleases, like that of the Nylon, have taken off, while new purse styles like the Buckle and Arqué got callouts in last year's earnings report. That momentum gave the brand an upper hand going into the luxury downturn. "People prioritize which brands they want to spend on. With a limited budget, first, you drop the ones that were not hot to begin with," Sokolova said. <h2>Can Prada's hot streak last?</h2>Just as fashion comes in, it can come out. And Prada's story — particularly Miu Miu's rapid-fire growth — in some ways mimics that of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gucci-sales-profit-reputation-falling-luxury-kering-michele-china-2024-5">Gucci's hype-driven rise and plummeting fall under Alessandro Michele</a>. "You kind of become a victim of your own success," Sokolova said. Both Prada and Miu Miu are susceptible to volatility, though for different reasons. Miu Miu is still relatively small, meaning its brand identity is not yet established enough to withstand the whims of consumers. CEO Guerra has acknowledged that such incredible growth can lead to a challenge. "There appears to be a glass ceiling," Solca wrote in a recent note. "Being prominent brings fatigue: after a while, consumers feel they have seen and done enough with these brands and move on." Prada, meanwhile, is more exposed in the cyclical ready-to-wear category — which makes up 32% of sales — than other brands like Gucci and YSL. But there are signs of continued growth: Miu Miu is adding 10 to 15 stores next year, while Prada is adding five to 10, the company has said. The brand's retail footprint is particularly underpenetrated in the US. The company's beauty business is still nascent. Last year, it launched skincare and makeup through a partnership with L'Oréal, and there is more money to be made in that sector. With so much control of its sales chain, the company can raise prices and limit overexposure through low-end collaborations or expansion into cheap categories. Plus, the slowdown hasn't happened yet: Miu Miu website traffic and sales continued to grow between the first and second quarters, and the company maintains it's not a flash in the pan. "This is a result of many years of work on the brand, on the products, on the people," Guerra said about Miu Miu's success on the company's most recent earnings call. Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/prada-white-tank-top-status-symbol-2024-2">Prada has maintained its brand value</a>. But the woman Miuccia Prada herself knows the pressure is on. "I was very nervous for this show," she told reporters backstage at the line's fashion show earlier this month about the new collection, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/20/style/prada-fendi-milan-fashion-week.html">The New York Times reported</a>. "Much more than usual." September 30, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misspelled the name of Miuccia Prada.

How Prada is beating the odds and bucking the luxury slump 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Europe could take a hit to GDP in a second Trump presidency, Goldman Sachs analysts say.</li><li>They point to increased uncertainty as the scope of the timing of Trump's sweeping tariffs remains unclear.</li></ul>As the world takes in the results of the US presidential election, regions around the world are determining what a Trump presidency might mean for their economies.Europe could face a big hit to economic growth as trade tensions increase, Goldman Sachs analysts said. The analysts downgraded their growth forecasts across the region, down to 0.8% from their previous forecast of 1.1% for 2025. In 2026, the analysts said they expect growth of 1%, down from 1.1% and lower than the consensus estimate of versus 1.4%. Overall, the analysts expect the Euro area to take a 0.5% hit to real GDP, with the bulk of the downturn set to materialize next year.The analysts point to renewed trade tensions fueled by Trump's proposal for sweeping tariffs on all US imports.More significant than the actual tariff increases, though, will be the trade policy uncertainty that comes with them, the analysts say. That uncertainty will pose a bigger hit to growth than the tariffs themselves, they said. "The actual magnitude of tariff increases might matter less than the uncertainty created by threatening to impose tariffs on Europe," the analysts said in a Wednesday note, adding, "The magnitude of the tariff increase, however, is unlikely to be clear for some time, and so we expect a pronounced further increase in TPU in the baseline scenario."The firm's trade policy uncertainty indicator for Europe has already risen in recent weeks as markets increasingly priced in odds of a Trump win.The analysts acknowledged, though, that while Trump's 10% across-the-board tariff is a clear risk, they expect his administration to initiate a more moderate set of duties on European countries.Those tariffs will likely target auto exports, which are worth $80 billion, or 0.9% of EU exports, the analysts said. The duties will have large impacts to GDP in Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland in particular, they added. During his campaign, Trump proposed raising tariffs on imports from all countries to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-plan-inflation-policy-impact-trade-war-china-rates-2024-5">at least 10%</a>, and said imports from China would be <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-impose-tariffs-china-if-elected-2024-2?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">subject to even steeper 60% duties</a>.The analysts add that a Trump presidency will prompt European countries to up their defense spending to account for a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">potential decrease</a> in US military support to Ukraine. That wartime support will cost the EU another 0.5% of GDP every year, the analysts say.The increased spending won't result in a growth boost, either, they say."Any resulting growth boost, however, will likely be limited by modest military spending multipliers in Europe, upward pressure on long-term yields from higher deficits and negative confidence effects from elevated geo-political risk," the analysts said.European officials have long warned of huge growth impacts from a second Trump presidency.Last month, ECB member Joachim Nagel <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-economic-growth-inflation-risks-europe-ecb-germany-2024-10">warned</a> a Trump win could hammer growth and send inflation soaring in Europe, and back in January, ECB president Christine Lagarde said a Trump win is "clearly a threat" to Europe, pointing to his tariff plans, commitment to NATO, and climate change policies.

Trump's presidency will hurt Europe's economic growth amid renewed trade tensions, Goldman Sachs says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tesla closed 22% higher on Thursday, its best day in years after posting strong earnings.</li><li>Analysts at JPMorgan caution that some of the automaker's growth drivers aren't sustainable.</li></ul>Tesla's earnings beat fueled a huge rally for the stock on Thursday, but JPMorgan is urging caution.Analysts at the bank said that while the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-tsla-earnings-call-report-live-updates-2024-10?_gl=1*1b1iqo9*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTc3NDk1OC4zMDguMS4xNzI5Nzc1Nzk4LjYwLjAuMA..#wedbush-analyst-dan-ives-sticks-with-bullish-view-on-tesla-despite-recent-volatility?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">strong earnings</a> should boost the stock in the short term, the automaker's growth drivers might not be sustainable in the coming quarters.The analysts correctly called the big reaction in the stock on Thursday post-earnings, with shares rising 22%, but they added that they see some caveats to the company's outlook. "However, we at the same time see several potentially unsustainable drivers of 3Q's better earnings and cash flow performance."The analysts pointed in particular to Tesla's near-record sales of regulatory credits. Tesla can sell credits it receives for producing electric cars to other companies that don't meet government emissions requirements.It's a hugely profitable business, and the credits generated $739 million for Tesla in the most recent quarter, the second-highest amount after the previous quarter's $890 million. While the credits are a huge profit driver in the near term, JPMorgan analysts said that won't last as other automakers introduce their own EVs and buy fewer credits from competitors like Tesla."Investors should be cautious about capitalizing the earnings generated from these (100% margin) credits, given that one of the tenets of the Tesla bull case is the large scale electrification of the automotive industry," the analysts wrote. "As other automakers broaden their electric offerings, they should over time be in a position to generate their own credits, negating and eventually eliminating the flow of competitor payments to Tesla."The analysts also pointed to large working capital benefits, which they say are unsustainable.Tesla saw a large beat on free cash flow in the most recent quarter, but that was in part due to a large increase in the amount due to its suppliers and other accrued liabilities, the analysts say.Tesla has only ever generated more cash from an increase in accounts payable in one other quarter, but at that time, deliveries and production both grew much faster, the analysts said. They wrote in the note that this suggests that this driver of the quarter's strong cash flow is unsustainable and possibly reversing."Automakers are expected to generate cash from working capital as sales rise, given timing differences arising from the favorable trade terms they enjoy with suppliers, but digging more deeply into the benefit, we note only in one quarter has Tesla ever generated more cash from an increase in accounts payable than it did in 3Q24," the analysts said.The automaker reported earnings per share of $0.62 for the third quarter, outpacing analysts' expectations of $0.51. Its operating profit came in at $2.7 billion, exceeding expectations of $2.0 billion and marking a 54% increase from a year ago. The company also announced that its Cybertruck <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cybertruck-profit-2024-10">has reached profitability</a>.JPMorgan rates Tesla "Underweight" with a December 2025 price target of $135 a share, 48% lower than its Thursday closing price of $260.48.

Tesla earnings have reinvigorated investors but some growth drivers look 'unsustainable,' JPMorgan says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's GDP grew 4.6% in the third quarter — its slowest pace of growth in six quarters.</li><li>The People's Bank of China triggered two market support programs after China announced economic data.</li></ul>China on Friday released third-quarter growth data that was its slowest in six quarters, but its stock markets still ended higher on a shot of confidence from its central bank.China's economy grew 4.6% in the third quarter of this year, the country's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202410/t20241018_1957042.html">statistics bureau</a> announced as it touted a "stable growth trend." This was higher than the 4.5% growth forecast that economists polled by Reuters had expected but lower than the 4.7% recorded in the second quarter of the year.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://stcn.com/article/detail/1356778.html">Sheng Laiyun, the deputy head of China's statistics bureau,</a> told reporters the bureau is confident of hitting the country's official GDP growth target for the year of around 5% based on the trend of economic stabilization and recovery seen in September.China's third-quarter GDP brings growth in the world's second-largest economy to 4.8% through the first three quarters of this year. That puts it at "striking distance" to hit its full-year growth target, wrote Lynn Song, the chief economist for Greater China at <a target="_blank" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/chinas-3q-gdp-beat-should-keep-growth-target-in-striking-distance/">ING.</a>September's retail sales figures were also promising, as they rose 3.2% from a year ago to a four-month high. It was also higher than the 2.5% growth economists polled by Reuters had expected.Meanwhile, industrial production in September grew 5.4% from a year ago — higher than the 4.5% economists had forecast.Even so, some analysts are not convinced the economic data release signals a convincing recovery."We would downplay the importance of better-than-expected key economic indicators in September given that the structural weakness in the property and household sectors remains largely unaddressed," wrote Betty Wang, the lead economist at Oxford Economics, in a note on Friday.In September, China's new home prices fell 5.8% from a year ago — the fastest pace since May 2015, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-new-home-prices-fall-fastest-pace-since-2015-2024-10-18/">Reuters</a> calculations based on official data."The property market unsurprisingly remains the biggest drag on China's growth," wrote Song, adding that stabilization in the real estate market remains "elusive."<h2 id="be1d62f1-13f0-4ff7-949a-fa2fb1c30260">The People's Bank of China to the rescue</h2>Also on Friday, markets got a shot in the arm as <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/5481032/index.html">the People's Bank of China</a> pulled the trigger on two funding programs that stand to inject as much as 800 billion Chinese yuan, or $112.6 billion, into its stock market.These programs — a share buyback and a swap facility — were first announced in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">late September</a> in a package of measures to support the stock market.PBOC's governor also signaled more interest rate cuts at a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-cenbank-chief-warns-against-any-illegal-fund-flows-into-stock-market-2024-10-18/">financial forum on Friday.</a>The central bank's announcements on Friday boosted market sentiment, sending China's benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/csi-300">CSI300</a> to close 3.6% higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also closed 3.6% up."The market is in a bad-news-is-good-news mode, as weak data implies more stimulus ahead," Larry Hu, the head of China economics at Macquarie Group, wrote.China's economy is being dragged by factors including a property crisis, high youth unemployment, and deflation. Especially concerning is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-weak-domestic-demand-factory-activity-amid-strong-export-2024-7">depressed consumer sentiment</a> as people prefer saving over spending in the current downturn.China has made frequent mentions of support and stimulus measures in recent weeks in an attempt to shore up flagging sentiment after years of negative news and after a massive rally last month ran out of steam."I think they are really trying to underpin growth," Rajiv Biswas, an international economist who's also the author of "<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow sponsored noindex" class="" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=2252c62746e53e506c655ce3df395bcea3ecbee5e1b11653f5e13361d3be9338&amp;postID=6711e994e5b54083005dea1d&amp;postSlug=china-economy-3q-gdp-growth-stock-market-stimulus-2024-10&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FAsian-Megatrends-Rajiv-Biswas%2Fdp%2F1137441887">Asian Megatrends</a>," told Business Insider.He added that he expects Beijing to continue to do more to support growth so the economy can enter 2025 on better footing."We expect the policy coordination between monetary and fiscal policy will be stepped up in the following quarters. This should cushion the downside risks in the economy," wrote Oxford Economics' Wang.

China just triggered more stimulus measures, even as it says its economy is showing 'stable growth'

<div type="image" title="SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal" agency="ANI" msid="112275933" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal &amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>The Consumer Price <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">Inflation</keyword> in India is expected to remain around 5 per cent in the financial year 2024-25 except for September and October month, according to a research report by <keyword id="13222" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sbi" source="Orion">SBI</keyword>. The report also noted that the inflation outlook in India remains a critical focus for the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI). Recent data indicates that the <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) inflation rose to 5.08 per cent in June 2024, driven primarily by higher food and beverage prices. "CPI inflation is expected to remain below or close to 5.0 per cent in the remaining months, except for Sep'24 and Oct'24" said the report. The report also added that the monsoon season plays an important role in shaping food prices, and while the current monsoon has shown a satisfactory surplus, excess rainfall could lead to crop losses, adversely affecting food inflation. The RBI's ability to manage inflation expectations is crucial, especially as it navigates the delicate balance between supporting <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and maintaining <keyword id="19960158" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="price-stability" source="keywords">price stability</keyword>. "With monsoon progressing satisfactorily with 2 per cent surplus till date and progress of area coverage under Kharif crops showing 2.9 per cent yoy, we expect inflation to remain within RBI target in FY25. However, with La Nina getting precedence, excess rainfalls could result in crop loss and thus a negative impact on food prices" the report added. In response to the evolving economic landscape, the report mentioned that the RBI is likely to continue its stance of withdrawing accommodation. This approach aims to address inflationary pressures while ensuring that the economy remains on a growth trajectory. However, the central bank faces challenges in policy transmission, as deposit rates have shown downward rigidity despite a declining weighted average lending rate (WALR). This situation complicates the RBI's efforts to implement effective monetary policy. "Even though the Banks are chasing deposits to fund the incremental credit growth, RBI recent report suggests, the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loan decreased by 11 bps from the beginning of the year (i.e. from 9.43 in January'24 to 9.32 in June'24)" the report noted. Looking ahead, the RBI's decisions will be influenced by both domestic and global economic conditions. The potential for a recession in the US and geopolitical tensions could impact inflation dynamics in India. As such, the RBI's monetary policy will need to remain flexible and responsive to these external factors while striving to achieve its inflation targets and support sustainable economic growth. (ANI)

SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's stimulus isn't enough to stem slowing GDP growth, the World Bank said this week.</li><li>Neighboring countries will see their growth contract after years of positive spillover effects.</li></ul>China's stimulus measures aren't enough to stem the decline of its economic fortunes, and the troubles facing the world's second-largest economy will also be a drag on its neighbors, a new report from the World Bank finds.The report, released Tuesday, says that China's outsized growth has had positive spillover effects on nearby developing economies for years. Yet, as China's growth slows amid a struggling economy and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stimulus-fix-economy-xi-jinping-stock-market-2024-10">tepid stimulus efforts</a>, those countries will also see growth contract.The bank forecasts China's economic growth will slow to 4.3% next year, down from a forecasted 4.8% for 2024. Growth in East Asia and the Pacific, meanwhile, will slow to 4.4% in 2025 from about 4.8% this year as a result."For three decades, China's growth has spilled over beneficially to its neighbors, but the size of that impetus is now diminishing," the group said.The authors point in particular to developing economies in East Asia, which benefited from increasing demand from China for imports even as it competed heavily as an exporter of goods. China's neighbors saw positive spillover effects from increased Chinese demand for commodities and services and from the relocation of Chinese production to those countries, the report says.The authors estimate that a 1% increase in China's GDP per-capita growth was associated with a 0.13% increase in GDP per-capita in emerging markets between 2020 and 2023.But now, with China's domestic demand stuck in low gear, its neighbors will feel the impact of China's export strength more drastically."If China's exports grow faster than its imports, as has continued to be the case in manufacturing and overall trade, then the negative impact of increased competition may outweigh the positive impact of demand enhancement in international markets," the report says.It says that a one percent slowdown in China's growth could reduce GDP growth in neighboring developing economies by as much as 0.21%.The report from the World Bank comes shortly after officials in Beijing announced a round of stimulus measures last month, vowing to rescue the economy from a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-housing-market-real-estate-crash-investors-outlook-construction-2024-3?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">struggling property sector</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-weak-domestic-demand-factory-activity-amid-strong-export-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*arxr6l*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODMwODIxNC4yMjkuMS4xNzI4MzA4MzIyLjQxLjAuMA..&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">weak consumer demand</a>.The measures, which included lower interest rates and liquidity support, plus <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chinese-property-stocks-homebuying-restrictions-stimulus-shanghai-gdp-2024-9?_gl=1*1lm342a*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODMwODIxNC4yMjkuMC4xNzI4MzA4MjE0LjYwLjAuMA..&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">relaxed restrictions on homebuying</a>, fueled a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-stock-market-rally-economy-stimulus-liqudity-overwhelm-system-2024-9?_gl=1*1a7ytxc*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODM5NjQwNS4yMzguMS4xNzI4Mzk2NTM4LjU5LjAuMA..">stock market rally</a> in the country and abroad as investors cheered any indication of future growth after months of downbeat data. However, the World Bank warns that the measures are still undefined, which makes it tough to calculate their impact on China's growth.Aaditya Mattoo, the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific chief economist, said the stimulus measures' fiscal impact has yet to be determined."The question is whether [the stimulus] can actually offset consumer concerns about declining salaries, concerns about declining property incomes and fears about falling ill, growing old, becoming unemployed," Mattoo said in a Tuesday interview with CNBC.Mattoo added that China will need to implement deeper structural reforms to see any long-term growth, but that the rest of the region will still welcome the stimulus efforts since it's so dependent on the country for growth.In the meantime, the rest of the region will "need to strengthen domestic drivers of growth by implementing long-deferred deeper reforms" to see growth independent of China, the report says.China's officials previously said the country is targeting "around 5%" growth for this year. In recent months, economists have increasingly said that goal <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-growth-targets-axa-investment-property-sector-industrial-production-2024-9">is out of reach</a>.

China's growth will fizzle next year despite stimulus efforts, and its issues will drag down neighboring economies, World Bank says

COVID-19 has changed the way the world works, quite literally. About 100 million people worldwide now spend a mix of days at home and in the office each week, more than four years after the pandemic lockdowns upended traditional job routines. Yet, a significant question remains unresolved: Is letting employees <keyword id="20231207" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="work-from-home" source="keywords">work from home</keyword> a couple of days a week actually beneficial for productivity, <keyword id="20154404" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="job-satisfaction" source="keywords">job satisfaction</keyword> and career progression? <keyword id="22043671" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nicholas-Bloom" source="keywords">Nicholas Bloom</keyword>, a prominent Stanford economist, has provided compelling insights into this ongoing debate, suggesting that <keyword id="10310934" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="hybrid-work" source="Orion">hybrid work</keyword> schedules can be mutually advantageous for employees and their companies. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="The Trip.com trials" comment="subhead" text="The Trip.com trials">The Trip.com trials</cmsannotation> At the heart of Bloom’s research is an experiment conducted by Trip.com, one of the world's leading online travel agencies, back in 2021. Involving 1,600 employees from various backgrounds, the study split participants based on their birthdates into groups working full-time in the office and those adopting a hybrid model. The research team analysed their performance and promotion data over two years, focusing on productivity and work quality comparisons between these groups. The analysis revealed that employees working remotely for two days each week matched the productivity levels and promotion rates of their counterparts who remained in the office full-time. Additionally, the experiment highlighted a notable decrease in employee turnover. Those who switched to a hybrid schedule saw a 33% reduction in resignations, with the most significant retention observed among women, non-managers and long-commute workers. This reduction in turnover minimised attrition, translating into cost savings worth millions of dollars for Trip.com. “The results are clear: Hybrid work is a win-win-win for <keyword id="21311443" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employee-productivity" source="keywords">employee productivity</keyword>, performance and retention,” said Bloom, who holds the William D. Eberle Professorship of Economics at Stanford and is also a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="What’s with the hybrid hesitation?" comment="subhead" text="What’s with the hybrid hesitation?">What’s with the hybrid hesitation?</cmsannotation> Hybrid work continues to have its fair share of critics, notable among which are Elon Musk, head of Tesla, SpaceX and X, and Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase. They have argued that remote work, in any form, undermines employee training, innovation and company culture. According to Bloom, the issue with such critics is that they often confuse hybrid schedules with fully remote work, leading to mixed perceptions. Most research has targeted jobs that don’t necessitate office presence, like customer support or data entry, where the findings are inconsistent and often lean negative. Bloom believes the issues with such completely remote work primarily emerge from poor management. Unlike previous studies, Bloom’s research is the most extensive examination of hybrid work among university-educated professionals to date. It uses a randomised controlled trial approach, allowing the researchers to link the observed benefits directly to Trip.com’s <keyword id="20445439" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hybrid-work-model" source="keywords">hybrid work model</keyword>, rather than external factors. “If managed right, letting employees work from home two or three days a week still gets you the level of mentoring, culture-building, and innovation that you want. From an economic policymaking standpoint, hybrid work is one of the few instances where there aren't major trade-offs with clear winners and clear losers. There are almost only winners,” Bloom concluded. Reflecting on these findings, Trip.com has fully embraced hybrid work across the company, signalling their support for this progressive work arrangement. The study was recently published in the journal Nature and can be accessed <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07500-2">here</a>.

Hybrid work model boosts employee productivity, career growth and loyalty to company, Stanford study concludes

The offers and details on this page may have updated or changed since the time of publication. See our article on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/genx-hit-hard-inflation-fed-delays-interest-rate-cuts-2024-6" target="_blank">Business Insider</a> for current information.<ul class="summary-list"><li>Gen X is feeling the sting of inflation more than other generations.</li><li>A new TransUnion study shows Gen X is planing the greatest cutbacks in discretionary spending.</li></ul>With the Federal Reserve Bank <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rates-decision-june-no-rate-cuts-inflation-powell-2024-6">holding interest rates steady,</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/high-prices-inflation-sticking-interest-rate-hikes-stock-market-2024-5">inflation</a> worries continue to rise. And no group is feeling the pinch more than <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/typical-gen-x-debt-net-worth-income-earnings-caregiving-stress-2021-8">Generation X</a>.Sixty-four percent of Gen Xers have cut back on discretionary spending like dining out and travel in the last three months, the highest percentage of any generation, according to TransUnion's consumer pulse study published on June 12. TransUnion surveyed 3,000 adults between April 29 and May 8 in partnership with third-party research firm Dynata.Overall, 84% of respondents cited inflation for everyday goods like groceries and gas as a top concern, a 5% increase from the same period in the previous year. Interest rate worries also climbed to 46%, up from 41% a year ago.This inflation concern has many Americans believing that their paychecks are not keeping up with their costs of living. Gen X — who were born between 1965 and 1980 — is struggling the most, with 56% indicating their income isn't matching the pace of rising prices, the highest for any generation.This comes at a time when many Gen Xers are already feeling financial pressure. According to a Business Insider and YouGov survey of over 1,800 US adults in July, <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-x-age-income-debt-forgotten-middle-child-struggling-financially-2023-12">50% of Gen Xers do not feel financially secure</a> even though they are at the height of their earning potential. It was also the generation least likely to feel somewhat or very financially secure.In addition to inflation pressure, Gen X is responsible for 38% of the debt in the US despite representing about 20% of the US population, according to the <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/distribute/chart/#quarter:127;series:Liabilities;demographic:generation;population:1,3,5,7;units:shares">Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances</a>.<div type="image" title="Liabilities by generation" height="424" width="676" msid="111003251" hostid="261" sizebytes="11544"></div><h2 id="8145df2f-a5f2-4cdd-9dde-ee3223fa1beb">Gen X feels less optimistic about money than other generations</h2>Gen X also has a more dire view of the economy in general.While all generations listed inflation as their biggest concern regarding household finances — ranging from 77% for Gen Z respondents to 90% for baby boomers — many Gen Xers are also worried that the country is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-hard-landing-economy-growth-spending-socgen-albert-edwards-2024-6">heading toward a recession</a>. Half of this cohort named this as their second-biggest concern.What's more, 47% of Gen Xers feel optimistic about household finances in the next 12 months. That was well behind Gen Z and millennials, at 65% and 64%, respectively. Boomers were more evenly split at 49%.Additionally, more than one-third of Gen X respondents anticipate canceling subscriptions and memberships, and one in four plan to cancel or reduce digital services.<div type="image" title="Household budget changes due to inflation." height="445" width="781" msid="111003253" hostid="261" sizebytes="35888"></div>As inflation concerns rise, Gen X is being hit the hardest, as they deal with high debt levels and insufficient income growth to match cost-of-living increases. "Consumers are facing distinct challenges when taking into account today's high inflation and interest rate environment," said Charlie Wise, senior vice president and head of global research and consulting at TransUnion, in the company's <a target="_blank" href="https://newsroom.transunion.com/concerns-about-inflation-and-interest-rates-increase-to-highest-levels-in-two-years-even-as-majority-of-us-consumers-remain-optimistic-about-finances/">press release</a>. "As the cost of living continues to increase, we are seeing clear behavioral changes, with those being 'inflation concerned' more likely to cut back on discretionary spending and cancel subscriptions or memberships."Are you a Gen Xer who has needed to adjust your budget and spending habits and is willing to talk about how? Reach out to this reporter at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:cgaines@businessinsider.com">cgaines@businessinsider.com</a>.

Gen X is feeling the negative effects of inflation more than any other generation

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aapl-stock">Apple</a> is set to release its latest quarterly earnings report on Thursday.</li><li>Analysts have their eye on the company's AI initiatives and the upcoming iPhone 16.</li></ul>Investors are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-q3-earnings-what-to-look-for-ai-china-services-2024-7">waiting on Apple</a> to report its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-earnings">earnings</a> for the third quarter.The results, which will be released after the closing bell on Thursday, will be critical for the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple">iPhone maker</a>, which has struggled with weak demand and rising competition in China over the past year.Still, analysts at multiple firms are still feeling optimistic for the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple">company,</a> given a slew of positive catalysts could be underway. In particular, Wall Street has its eye on growth in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-intelligence-delay-wont-hurt-new-iphone-sales-analysts-2024-7">Apple Intelligence</a> — the company's coming AI system — which is on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-earnings-service-growth-iphone-drop-antitrust-google-app-store-2024-5">services side</a> of its business, as well as demand for the iPhone 16.Here's what Wall Street strategists say they expect to see from the tech giant for the third quarter.<h2 id="3e17e5e8-8681-4c6a-be80-dcb06008553b">Wedbush: 'Turnaround' story is beginning</h2>iPhone demand is likely stabilizing in China, according to supply-chain checks Wedbush conducted in Asia. That could set up the company to initially ship around 90 million iPhone 16s, higher than the consensus of 80-84 million, analysts said.Growth could also lie in Apple's AI initiatives, particularly with its partnership with OpenAI. Artificial intelligence incorporated into Apple products could add another $30 to $40 each share of Apple stock, Wedbush estimated."We strongly believe June will be the last negative growth quarter for China with a growth turnaround beginning in the September quarter. China remains the linchpin of growth for Apple and now this key region is set to see growth once against starting with iPhone 16 in our view," the firm in a note in July.Wedbush reiterated its "outperform" rating on the stock and issued a price target of $275 a share, implying 24% upside.<h2 id="2c74e229-dc32-4d81-a4d5-f50bf47c330f">Bank of America: AI features to fuel demand for iPhones</h2>Apple looks on track to pull slightly more revenue than initially expected — but investors will "mostly ignore" the earnings results and focus on guidance related to AI-enabled iPhones, revenue growth in China, and revenue growth on the services side of the business, BofA strategists predicted.AI should also drive more Apple users to scoop up new iPhones, the bank predicted in a note."We see pent up demand and a meaningful number of older iPhones in the installed base, and the new AI features should help drive an upgrade cycle," it said.Analysts reiterated their "buy" rating on the stock and raised their price target to $256 a share, implying 15% upside.<h2 id="9c10aab3-071a-4360-b45f-883487736ccf">Needham: Ecosystem 'lock-in' to drive growth</h2>Apple could be fueling valuation growth through its huge <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-record-stock-buyback-bigger-boeing-airbnb-chipotle-market-cap-2024-5">stock buy-backs</a>, as well as the company diversifying its product line and driving 'ecosystem lock-in,' such as by creating services like Apple Pay and Apple Care, Needham analysts said.The company also appears to be "maximizing revenue per AAPL user," they added, pointing to the firm's multiple subscription services, like Fitness + and Apple Music.Still, the company faces risks stemming from geopolitical tensions with China, and potentially weaker consumer demand as the economy continues to slow. iPhone users also aren't replacing their devices as frequently as they were before the pandemic, the firm noted, citing industry checks and conversations with former Apple employees.Needham reiterated its "buy" rating on Apple stock and raised its price target to $260 a share, implying 17% upside.<h2 id="238e69e3-0197-49b3-955b-fc474282224e">Morgan Stanley: Big upgrade cycle coming</h2>Morgan Stanley's research team reiterated Apple as its "top pick", thanks to a large number of Apple users set to upgrade their devices. By the end of this fiscal year, there could be a record 700 million iPhones that are at least three years old, the bank estimated.The promise of Apple Intelligence, meanwhile, could help the firm sell as many as 235 million iPhones over the 2025 fiscal year, followed by 262 million iPhones in the 2026 fiscal year, analysts said."Apple Intelligence is a clear catalyst for a multi-year product upgrade cycle," analysts added in a note. "Never in Apple's 40 year history has the iPhone installed base been so large (1.3b+ devices), replacement cycles been so extended (at 4.8 years), and a new technology been limited to such a small cohort of users (8% of the iPhone/iPad installed base) all at the same time."The bank's research arm reiterated its "overweight" rating on the stock and raised its price target to $273 a share, implying 23% upside.<h2 id="b831c419-8c6d-40f2-970a-9185bb6a9b79">Oppenheimer: 'Dominating force' in AI</h2>Apple is poised to lead tech firms in the consumer AI space, Oppenheimer said."We believe that Apple's introduction of Apple Intelligence will position the company as the leader in the consumer AI experience," strategists said in a note, adding that the company's AI initiatives could result in faster-than-expected revenue and earnings growth. "We believe the excitement over Apple Intelligence can potentially accelerate hardware replacement and enable market share gain for iPhone, iPad and Mac."Analysts reiterated their "outperform" rating on the stock and raised their price target to $250 a share, implying 12% upside.<h2 id="50c2a23d-c41a-4e87-a9b1-d5418f696e0b">Barclays: Stock has room to fall</h2>Apple's financials results will likely look better starting in the September quarter, with the company on track to see 9% revenue growth in 2025, the European bank said. But investors are still waiting for Apple Intelligence to roll out before sentiment improves.Meanwhile, Apple's stock may not have much more room to climb, given how expensive shares are already priced, strategists added."While numbers finally moving higher and hope for the AI iPhone will help sentiment, we see less scope for upside with the stock at a 30x+ p/e multiple," Barclays said, referring to the stock's high price-to-earnings ratio. "We do not think the iPhone16/AI features will be enough to drive a meaningful enough upgrade cycle to justify the valuation."The bank reiterated its "underweight" rating on the stock, but raised its price target to $187 a share, implying 16% downside.

'A growth turnaround beginning': Here's what Wall Street expects from Apple's 3rd-quarter earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tesla is a "growth company with no growth," Wells Fargo said in a note downgrading the stock this week. </li><li>The bank downgraded its rating on the carmaker and slashed its price target for the shares.</li></ul>Tesla these days is looking like a "growth company with no growth," and the stock could see a double-digit drop that reflects the growing headwinds to sales and earnings, Wells Fargo analysts wrote this week. In a note on Wednesday, the bank downgraded its rating on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla">Tesla</a> to "underweight" from "neutral" and slashed its price target for the stock from $200 a share to $125 a share. That implies around 23% downside from where the stock was trading on Thursday afternoon, when the shares were changing hands at $163.09 at 1:57 p.m. ET. The Wells Fargo analysts pointed to a growing number of challenges facing the electric vehicle maker. Wall Street strategists have warned <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-earnings-report-q4-call-tsla-price-live-updates-2024-1#wedbush-says-price-cuts-will-be-foundational-for-teslas-future">that electric vehicle demand is set to slow in 2024</a>. That means Tesla will have to choose whether it will continue to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-electric-vehicle-price-war-elon-musk-cuts-profits-ford-2023-4">slash prices on its vehicles</a> in a bid to remain competitive and edge out rivals like China's BYD as well as legacy US carmakers. "We see downside risk to volume as price cuts are having a diminishing impact. We see headwinds from disappointing deliveries &amp; more price cuts, which likely drive negative EPS revisions," Wells Fargo analysts in the note. The bank outlook points to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-earnings">Tesla earnings per share</a> coming in 32% below Wall Street's estimates in 2024, and 52% below consensus estimates in 2025.Meanwhile, Tesla's expected launch of its more affordably priced Model 2 could disappoint investors, given the low profitability of the vehicle and its seemingly "rushed" timing. "Even with unboxed savings, Model 2 gross profits look low," the analysts wrote. The EV maker still has some things going for it. Tesla appears to be "forward thinking" with its manufacturing, the analysts said, with the potential to reap a cost advantage if it continues developing so-called unboxed production methods meant to reduce costs. Meanwhile, if its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-self-driving-tesla-less-profound-ai-2023-6">full self-driving</a> technology and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-dojo-supercomputer-morgan-stanley-upgrade-note-tsla-2023-9">Dojo supercomputer</a> are a success, that could give the company a "big head start on autonomy," the Wells Fargo team added. Tesla stock has been off to a rough start in the first quarter, with its stock plummeting 34% from levels in January. The firm slightly missed revenue forecasts over the fourth quarter, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-earnings-report-q4-call-tsla-price-live-updates-2024-1#musk-calls-dojo-a-longshot">pulling in $25.17 billion</a> over the last reporting period.

'Growth company with no growth': Wells Fargo says Tesla stock could drop 23% in scathing downgrade

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's economy is moving in the opposite direction of the US, Goldman Sachs' John Waldron said.</li><li>He said "negative animal spirits" in China point to slow growth as it battles economic malaise.</li></ul>China's economy is battling a host of problems that will weigh on growth for a while, and the country is moving in the opposite direction as the US, according to Goldman Sachs president John Waldron. Waldron said <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OinbipEb6GA&amp;ab_channel=CNBCTelevision" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in an interview with CNBC this week</a> that a recent visit to China highlighted the nation's ongoing economic struggle. The situation in the world's second-largest economy is a stark contrast from the US, which has seen steady growth and robust consumer demand, as well as a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-dow-sp500-notch-new-year-highs-2023-12">stock market rally</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/rate-cuts-2024-recession-inflation-stock-market-outlook-federal-reserve-2023-11">predictions of a soft landing in 2024</a>. "My experience when I was there is that it almost felt like there were negative animal spirits. It didn't feel like the US, when we had positive animal spirits when the economy was coming back from COVID. I feel like it's the opposite in China," Waldron said. Waldron notes that China hasn't seen the same level of recovery as other big economies since the pandemic. That's partly because, unlike in the US and Europe, China didn't inject any significant fiscal or monetary stimulus into its economy. Weak consumer demand has caused prices to recently <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-economy-outlook-crashing-pork-prices-deflation-consumer-beijing-commodities-2023-12">slip into deflation territory</a>, and soured debts from major property developers have <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/china-property-crisis-deepens-market-value-wipeout-developers-usd-bonds-2023-8">rocked China's real estate sector</a>. That's dimmed the attractiveness of China's markets to foreign investors. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-foreign-investment-deficit-beijing-xi-jinping-zero-covid-2023-11">Foreign investment in the nation went negative for the first time</a> ever last quarter, according to State Administration of Foreign Exchange data. "I think they're going to have a tough time. I think they're going to have to tackle some real structural challenges," Waldron said of China's economy. "I think they're focused on that and they're going to get after it, but it's going to take a while, and I feel like they're going to grow below-trend for a fair period of time."Other experts have warned of a grim future ahead for China if it doesn't <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-growth-outlook-hard-landing-deflation-debt-demand-savings-2023-8">adequately loosen policy</a> and stimulate its economy. The nation is at risk of slipping into a "<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-economy-lost-decade-global-growth-driver-xi-jinping-gdp-2023-6?_gl=1*ayg52k*_ga*MjMxMzA1Mzg2LjE2NTY0NDQxNTU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcwMjQ5MDY3Ny42NTIuMS4xNzAyNDkxNzkwLjQ4LjAuMA..">lost decade</a>," a period of stagnation similar to what Japan experienced in the early 90s, experts say, while others have made far more bleak predictions of a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/china-economy-banking-system-property-crisis-real-estate-debt-losses-2023-12">collapse of the banking system</a> and trillions of dollars in losses stemming from the burst in the country's real estate bubble.

China's structural problems mean growth will continue to sag as 'negative animal spirits' move it in the opposite direction as the US, Goldman Sachs president says

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