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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Natural-gas prices in Texas have dropped into negative territory.</li><li>This isn't common when energy demand is high during summer heatwaves.</li></ul>Natural-gas prices in Texas have slipped into negative territory even amid a heat advisory for parts of the state, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-natgas-prices-turn-negative-texas-despite-heat-wave-2024-06-25/">Reuters</a> reported.Though this will sometimes occur, negative next-day gas prices are more typically seen in cooler seasons, when there's less demand for air conditioning — not when temperatures are climbing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.kxan.com/weather/forecast/todays-forecast/">into the triple digits</a>.Still, prices at Texas' Waha hub dropped to negative $1 per million British thermal unit on Monday.It's a situation where high demand has likely been offset by an oversupply of the energy commodity, and it's been attribution to pipeline maintenance by Kinder Morgan, an energy firm working to limit gas capacity in the Permian Highway gas pipe.Taking this infrastructure offline can lead to trapped natural gas, momentarily boosting supply. According to traders that spoke with Reuters, other reasons may have contributed to the negative price slide as well.This is the 18th time this year that Texas natural gas price have entered negative territory, the outlet said. According to Fortune, some of this price action was similarly caused by pipe shutdowns, such as when the Natural Gas Pipeline of America was taken offline <a target="_blank" href="https://fortune.com/2024/04/27/natural-gas-prices-negative-territory-west-texas-supply-glut-weak-demand/">due to fire in April</a>.For Texas' energy consumers, however, this likely won't lead to cheaper electricity bills. Already, past heat waves have caused the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/electricity-price-biggest-increases-us-regions-energy-bills-summer-heatwave-2024-6?_gl=1*sc5i43*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcxOTM0MjExNS4zNjIuMC4xNzE5MzQyMTE1LjYwLjAuMA..">states' spot electricity prices to soar</a> as high as 20,000%.What's more, West South Central states — including Texas — are likely to have the most expensive bills of the country this year, the Energy Information Administration reported.

Texas natural-gas prices turn negative despite soaring heatwave temperatures

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's oil and gas profits are under pressure.</li><li>Before the war, Russia supplied 40% of Europe's gas. It's now down to 15%.</li></ul>Russia's energy sector has taken a hit from Western sanctions.But Moscow doesn't appear ready to acknowledge that it's not in a financial position to cut Europe off from its natural gas exports completely.In an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1970551/">Sky News Arabia on Friday,</a> Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia hasn't cut off gas exports to Europe because Russians are "decent people.""We are decent people. We signed long-term contracts with Europe," Lavrov said."We always honor our obligations, unlike Europe or the United States," Lavrov added.Besides, as Lavrov said, Russia and Europe's gas deals benefit both sides."If cooperation is mutually beneficial, why shoot yourself in the foot?" he asked.What Lavrov didn't outright address in the interview is the more likely reason Russia continues to export to Europe: It needs the money.<h2 id="dedf49a1-9ad7-40d6-9c80-9ef995fa1d77">Russia's oil and gas profits are under pressure</h2>Before starting the war in Ukraine and being sanctioned by the West, Russia supplied as much as <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/europes-messy-russian-gas-divorce/">40% of Europe's gas.</a> That declined to roughly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/europes-messy-russian-gas-divorce/#:~:text=Russia%20cut%20off%20the%20gas,price%20cap%20on%20Russian%20oil.">15% at the end of 2023</a> after three out of four Nord Stream pipelines carrying Russian gas to Europe were damaged. The remaining Nord Stream pipeline has never been commissioned, and Russia was already slowing its gas flows to Europe before the blast.Now, Russia's oil and gas profits are under pressure from sanctions and restrictions — including a G7 price cap on its crude oil exports — as its war with Ukraine heads into its 31st month.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-energy-revenue-crude-oil-prices-gas-exports-sanctions-ukraine-2024-1">Russia's oil and gas revenues</a> hit 8.82 trillion rubles, or $94.6 billion, in 2023. That's 24% lower than the 11.6 trillion rubles it recorded in 2022, when revenues jumped due to oil price volatility. In 2021, Russia's oil and gas sales revenue stood at 9 trillion rubles.Russia has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-raises-forecast-2024-oil-gas-export-revenues-by-174-bln-document-shows-2024-09-06/">raised its forecast</a> for its oil and gas sales this year, but the breakeven oil price has also risen significantly since the war started. That's due to sanctions-related factors, such as higher Russian-underwritten insurance premiums and shipping costs related to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-dark-fleet-oil-exports-strong-red-sea-risks-strategy-2024-1">dark fleet</a> transporting the commodities.According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/081324-sanctions-dent-russian-economy-but-commodities-exports-boost-kremlin-coffers#:~:text=S%26P%20Global%20Commodity%20Insights%20estimated,though%2C%20for%20three%20main%20reasons.">S&amp;P Global,</a> Russia's breakeven oil price was $62 a barrel in 2021. It's now $94 a barrel.Higher breakeven prices eat into profits, which would hit Russian energy firms and have a spillover impact on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-overheating-consumer-spending-tourism-central-bank-interest-rate-2024-7">war economy</a> — which appears resilient but is fighting multiple challenges. There's also the question of how well Russia's economy is really doing; in July, a group of eight <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-wartime-boom-outlook-western-us-sanctions-soviet-union-2024-7">European finance ministers</a> said outright that Russia is lying about its booming economy.To be sure, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-europe-russia-gas-renewables-oil-energy-security-ukraine-war-2022-4">other geopolitical factors</a> could also be playing into Russia's decision to keep natural gas exports moving into Europe. But the role oil and gas play in Russia's economy can't be understated.The oil and gas industry accounts for <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Follow-the-Money-Russian-Oil.pdf">30% to 50% of Russia's federal budget revenue,</a> the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies estimated.Bloomberg estimates that Russia could lose as much as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-economy-ukraine-war-revenue-gas-pipeline-energy-europe-trade-2024-9">$6.5 billion a year</a> if Naftogaz, Ukraine's state-run energy giant, doesn't renew a gas-transit deal that expires this year. This deal allows Russian gas to be transported to Europe via Ukraine.While Russia has managed to pivot to <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-divert-oil-exports-europe-india-china-circumvent-sanctions-2023-12">alternative markets, </a>the commodities are often sold at huge discounts due to sanctions, according to an <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://prod-us3.plattslive.com/commodities/crude/news-and-insight/081324-sanctions-dent-russian-economy-but-commodities-exports-boost-kremlin-coffers">S&amp;P Global</a> report last month."Russia has managed to sustain its oil production and exports despite Western sanctions and <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7369.htm">OPEC+ cuts,</a> although it has faced challenges with its oil cash flows," wrote Svetlana Tretyakova, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy, in late August.

Russia says it's the bigger person for not cutting Europe's natural gas supply — but that's not all there is to it     

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Europe continues to import Russian natural gas, despite pledges to wean off the fuel after the invasion of Ukraine.</li><li>Europe's reliance on Russian gas has dropped from over 40% to about 15% since the Ukraine war.</li></ul>Europe has pledged to wean itself from Russian natural gas following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, but it's still buying the fuel.Europe's monthly imports of Russian liquefied natural gas — the supercooled version of natural gas that can be transported on ships — have been holding relatively steady, in the 850,000 to 1.6 million metric ton range, since the invasion of Ukraine, per <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-30/russia-s-lng-clout-in-europe-rises-as-us-fuel-heads-elsewhere">Bloomberg records.</a>This continued import of Russian fuel shows the complications of cutting off Russian gas completely in the global energy market.To be sure, Russia's share in Europe's natural-gas imports has dropped dramatically since the Ukraine war started.Before the invasion, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/europes-messy-russian-gas-divorce/">Europe imported</a> over 40% of its natural gas from Russia — its single largest supplier and a major energy producer — mainly via pipelines.By the end of last year, Europe still imported about 15% of its total gas supply from Russia, with about 9% coming from pipelines and 6% as LNG. This is down from 43% and 4% from pipelines and LNG, respectively, in the first quarter of 2021."This means that the handful of member states that have not been able to or have not chosen to reduce their dependency remain highly vulnerable to Russia's weaponization of energy imports," Brookings analysts wrote in a June report.<h2 id="d2e6d7e8-d863-4f71-a938-3b296496b522">US stepped up LNG imports to Europe, but shipments have fallen this year</h2>Europe's continued imports of Russian gas are in part due to shifting demands for the fuel that has driven a lot of exports from the US — the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-was-top-lng-exporter-2023-hit-record-levels-2024-01-02/">world's top LNG exporter</a> last year — to other locations this year.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/us-lng-supplies-to-europe-overtake-russian-gas-iea-says">US supplied more natural gas</a> to Europe than Russia did for the first time ever in June 2022, but the gap between the two countries' LNG shipments has narrowed.In July, the difference between the amount of LNG the US and Russia shipped to Europe contracted to its lowest since late 2021, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-30/russia-s-lng-clout-in-europe-rises-as-us-fuel-heads-elsewhere">Bloomberg analysis</a> of preliminary ship-tracking data published on Tuesday.At the end of July, Europe imported 1.5 million metric tons of LNG from the US, just slightly more than the 1.3 million tons the region imported from Russia.The gap between Europe's imports has been narrowing this year. At the end of January, Europe imported 5.2 million tons of LNG from the US and just 1.5 million tons from Russia.This is mostly due to US LNG shippers sending their goods to where the money is: Asia, where prices have been trading at a premium to Europe due to a summer heatwave.Spot LNG cargoes for delivery to North Asia were priced around $12 per million British thermal units, or mmBtu, in the week to July 26, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/asias-lng-imports-shift-higher-europes-fades-russell-2024-07-29/">Reuters</a> in a Monday report. This was about 17% higher than the $10.30 mmBtu for delivery to Europe on July 26.Importers from Japan — a top buyer — were seeking spot cargoes in late June, according to Rystad, an energy research firm, at the time. This means demand has risen more than what importers had projected when they locked in long-term contracts earlier.Asia was the "preferred destination" for US cargoes for delivery in August and September, wrote Masanori Odaka, a senior analyst at Rystad.

The US is sending less natural gas to Europe, complicating Europe's plans to cut off Russian gas

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Mongolia won't fund the Siberia-2 pipeline for the next four years, Radio Free Europe reports.</li><li>The natural gas pipeline is an ambitious project to deepen trade between Russia and China.</li></ul>Plans for an ambitious natural-gas pipeline between Russia and China have hit a hitch, caused by a completely separate country: Mongolia.According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.rferl.org/a/china-eurasia-power-of-siberia-mongolia-putin/33086686.html">Radio Free Europe</a>, Mongolia's government did not include funding for the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline in its spending plans for the next four years. The country serves as a buffer state between both Russia and China, and its engagement would be necessary for the project's realization.This fresh snag adds complications to an already uncertain mega-project.Russian energy giant Gazprom started design and survey work on the pipeline <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-china-gas-pipeline-sanctions-ukraine-putin-gazprom-soyuz-vostok-2022-3">in 2022</a>, projecting that it could deliver 1.8 trillion cubic feet of Russian natural gas to China each yearThis would make the Siberia-2 pipeline Gazprom's biggest deal with Beijing, and could provide a much-needed solution to Western sanctions. After Russia invaded Ukraine the same year, energy restrictions on Moscow have crippled its gas trade.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-gas-sales-revenue-gazprom-economy-decline-sanctions-ukraine-war-2024-6">Research commissioned</a> by the firm found that Gazprom is unlikely to recover gas sales lost to the Ukraine war for at least a decade, placing a greater need on Siberia-2's deployment.But Chinese counterparts face much less pressure, given that the country does not need more <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-putin-visit-china-xi-enemy-friends-2024-5">gas before the mid-2030s</a>, energy experts have said. For this reason, pipeline negotiations have stalled between Beijing and Moscow, given price and supply level disputes.According to Radio Free Europe, plans for the pipeline also contradict China's increasing shift towards green energy.Moreover, the Siberia-2 project isn't China's only option: President Xi Jinping has also signaled support for the Line D pipeline, deepening ties with Turkmenistan.Expanded access to Eastern markets has proven to be a lifeline for Russia as the West has increasingly shunned the Kremlin. China has been front and center in this transition, with bilateral trade ballooning to a record <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-trade-record-ukraine-war-xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-2024-1">$240 billion last year.</a>With Moscow highly dependent on its relationship with Beijing, some experts have characterized it as an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cia-chief-ukraine-war-failure-for-russia-on-many-levels-2024-1">emerging vassal to China</a>.

One key country is holding up a natural-gas pipeline that would deepen ties between Russia and China

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Deutsche Energy Terminal has been told to reject Russian LNG, according to The Financial Times.</li></ul>Germany is believed to have told its ports to reject Russian cargoes of liquefied natural gas in a bid to further isolate Vladimir Putin's energy industry.The country's economic ministry told the state-owned Deutsche Energy Terminal not to accept deliveries of Russian LNG, according to a letter dated November 6 obtained by the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/94bb16b8-b4b1-4360-b7d0-cecca1ebffaa?accessToken=zwAGJtzDN_1YkdOUuxa4tLFDYNO30M7Moev_qg.MEYCIQClq2abFM5Kf3q6PR9Ry9NhImf-JYCu4Yh6Rh9BsTbqZgIhAPT3_uF_tz7M8QVY1Ev2iiCyzpSATlrHAOp2YMu48s9L&amp;sharetype=gift&amp;token=4d2150bc-286c-4fe0-9795-2102f9e6b9ca">Financial Times</a>.The letter was sent after the company was due to receive a Russian cargo shipment on Sunday at its import facility in Brunsbüttel, the FT said.It went on to say that the decision would protect Germany's "overriding public interests."The letter added that accepting the deliveries would defy the reason the German terminal was initially opened — to allow Germany and the EU to become "independent of Russian gas."It comes as the EU weighs up buying more LNG from the US when President-elect Donald Trump takes office in a bid to convince him not to impose high import tariffs on EU companies. Trump pledged on the campaign trail to impose <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">a fresh era</a> of trade <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">tariffs</a>. He has vowed to impose a 60% tariff on goods imported from China and a 10% blanket tariff on all other goods entering the US.European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said last week that she would consider replacing Russian LNG with more US imports as part of trade talks."We still get a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices," von der Leyen told reporters on Friday. "It's something where we can get into a discussion," she said, referring to the US's trade deficit with the eurozone, which reached <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union">$131.3 billion in 2022.</a>"It would be in the interest of the US that Europe continues to shun Russian fossil fuels, given the US oil and gas industry has been one of the key beneficiaries of this move," wrote Warren Patterson, the head of commodities strategy at <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/what-a-trump-presidency-means-for-oil-and-gas-markets/">ING,</a> last week.The EU — which previously relied on Russian energy — banned seaborne Russian crude imports and refined petroleum products following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.As BI previously <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-oil-gas-energy-industry-europe-target-trump-election-win-2024-11">reported</a>, it has also cut most of its piped natural gas imports from Russia, replacing much of it with LNG from the US. The US is now a top exporter of gas to Europe, accounting for <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/carbon-management-and-fossil-fuels/liquefied-natural-gas_en">46% of the bloc's supply in 2023.</a>Germany hasn't imported LNG directly from Russia since the invasion. However, according to a Kpler report obtained by FT, the country's state energy group, Sefe, has a long-term contract to import Russian LNG via France.In a statement to Business Insider, a spokesperson for Germany's economic ministry said it wouldn't comment on "possible leaked documents.""It is correct that Germany does not import Russian gas and it is also clear to the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action that this must not happen via German LNG terminals," the spokesperson added.Deutsche Energy Terminal and Sefe did not immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

Germany banned Russian gas from its ports, the latest move to isolate Putin's energy industry: report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian inflation will likely rise after the nation hiked its gas prices, British Intelligence said.</li><li>Russia raised domestic gas prices 11% at the start of July.</li></ul>Russian inflation will worsen after a sudden spike in gas prices, according to a new report from the UK intelligence.Consumer prices in Russia are set to rise even higher after the government implemented prices hikes on gas for its citizens this month, the British Ministry of Defence said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1812769823211896886">note</a> this week. Domestic gas prices in Russia spiked 11% at the start of July, likely to make up for industry losses stemming from Western sanctions, the note said."This hike is almost certainly intended to increase revenue from Russia's domestic market, in response to the loss of natural gas exports in Europe," the Ministry said.Gas prices, which are state-controlled in Russia, have already shot up 34% since Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Prices are on track to rise another 8.2% in 2025, which will "almost certainly add to inflationary pressures," the report said.The increases come as Russia has lost a huge segment of its natural gas business as the European Union has weaned itself off of Russian fossil fuels since 2022. Russia has also cut off natural gas supplies to key European countries, like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-cut-natural-gas-to-germany-shell-refused-ruble-payment-2022-6">Germany and the Netherlands</a>, due to suppliers refusing to pay for gas in rubles.The restrictions have taken a huge bite out of Russia's gas sales, which make up one of the Kremlin's largest sources of revenue. Gazprom, Russia's state-run gas producer, said it lost 629 billion rubles, or <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-gas-energy-flows-gazprom-sanctions-ukraine-war-putin-2024-5">around $6.8 billion in 2023</a> — its first recorded loss in over 20 years.Sanctions have also hit Russia's oil revenue, another key source of income for the Kremlin. Moscow's total <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-energy-revenue-crude-oil-prices-gas-exports-sanctions-ukraine-2024-1">oil and gas sales plummeted 24% in 2023</a>, a sign higher energy prices haven't completely made up for the loss in market share.Higher prices have posed a burden on Russians, who have been grappling with elevated inflation since the start of the war in Ukraine. Consumer prices rose 8.6% year-per-year in June, Russia's economic ministry reported, well above the Bank of Russia's 4% price target.British intelligence added that inflation in Russia is "highly likely" to remain above target through the rest of 2024.Analysts expect inflation to clock in at over 6% by the end of the year, which could cause central bank to lift interest rates to 18% in July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russia-seen-hiking-rates-by-200-bps-18-july-inflation-quickens-2024-07-02/">according to Reuters</a>.

Russian inflation will soar even higher as sanctions spark another surge in gas prices, British intelligence says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>There's less than a 30% chance Middle Eastern conflicts spiral out of control, an Institute of International Finance economist wrote.</li><li>But in that scenario, oil and natural gas could appreciate 40% as supply gets strained.</li></ul>Oil and natural gas prices could significantly appreciate if conflicts in the Middle East take a turn for the worse, the Institute of International Finance said in a Thursday report. Thankfully the association's baseline scenario sees current turmoil as unlikely to escalate, with a less than 30% chance a wider regional war flares up. But if tensions did spiral out of control, the effects on the world's oil and natural gas supply would be dire."The potential impact of a disruption of supply on energy prices depends on the duration and severity of the disruption. While it is difficult to predict by how much and for how long energy prices would rise, we assume that oil and natural gas prices surge by 40% in 2024," analysts led by Chief Economist Garbis Iradian wrote. "Along with the increase in oil and natural gas, freight and insurance costs would increase considerably, creating inflationary pressures at a time when inflation remains above target."In the IIF's more pessimistic outlook, the US and its allies could fail to bring down the Houthis' capacity to attack Red Sea shipping lanes, something the Yemeni rebel group has been actively doing since late 2023. The attacks, carried out in protest of Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip, have triggered Western security initiatives to operate in the region. If the Houthis hold out, their attacks could expand to include oil tankers and carriers that raw commodities, such as iron and grain, Iradian wrote. Meanwhile, oil supply would take a deeper hit from broader disapproval of Israeli actions, potentially sparking a war between Hezbollah and Israel. This could also drag Iran into the conflict, disrupting shipping from the Strait of Hormuz. "About 30% of global oil consumption passes through this strait, with a large portion of the oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar's LNG passing through it as well," Iradian said.The IIF's hypothetical has the potential to bring global growth down to 2.4% this year, compared to 3.1% in 2023. Under continued attacks on shipping, global trade volumes would decelerate to 0.8%, putting upwards pressure on inflation.Across developed markets, this would mean higher-for-longer interest rates, the IIF said, contributing to slower growth.The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-opec-china-red-sea-shipping-crude-supply-2024-2?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=yahoo.com">Red Sea turmoil may be the sole factor</a> keeping global crude at current levels, with <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> crude at $82.75. Otherwise, historic US production levels have kept supply ample, while demand has slowed from markets such as China.

Oil and natural gas prices could spike 40% this year if war spreads across the Middle East, economist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hurricane Helene, the dockworkers' strike, and Middle East conflict threaten to upend the US economy.</li><li>Oil prices are up as conflict widens between Israel and Iran.</li></ul>A sudden flurry of global developments has the US economy staring down a troubling trifecta of major crises.Devastation from Hurricane Helene, a dockworkers' strike, and escalating conflict in the Middle East all threaten to scramble supply chains and inflate prices. The confluence of events comes just as the US economy is recovering from a years-long bout of elevated inflation. Coupled with a cooling but still-strong labor market, it looked possible the US would avoid a recession. These events could threaten that.While the effects of Iran's<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10"> missile</a> attack on Israel on Tuesday are more speculative, the other two crises happening on American soil could have more predictable impacts. Experts point to direct impacts on the prices of goods like oil, food, and industrial equipment as well as infrastructure damage that would create knock-on effects across industries.For now, it's a waiting game. Many of the effects depend on how long the strike and cleanup last and how quickly the parties responsible for resolving them can act.<h2 id="bb66dc7c-8a7f-46f6-83fe-f763c7971b08">1. Escalation in the Middle East</h2>On Tuesday, the risk of a full-blown war between Iran and Israel escalated when Iran <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">launched a massive ballistic missile</a> attack on its adversary.It came less than a day after Israel ramped up its attacks on Hezbollah with an invasion of southern Lebanon. The heightening conflict also threatens to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warns-severe-consequences-for-iran-after-attack-on-israel-2024-10">further entangle the US</a>, which announced it's sending additional fighter jets and thousands of troops to the Middle East to defend Israel and reinforce US troops already in the region.Since Iran's offensive, the price of oil has surged up, raising concerns that a broader conflict could push oil and gas prices higher. When petroleum prices rise, that also impacts the cost of plastics, which could raise prices on a range of goods. Some experts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/02/israel-iranian-oil-refineries-retaliatory-strikes">warn that Israel could target Iranian oil production facilities</a> in potential retaliatory attacks, which could risk further oil price increases."History would say that when there is conflict in the region, the prices of petroleum remain elevated and could continue to rise," Douglas Kent, an executive vice president at the Association for Supply Chain Management, told Business Insider.<h2 id="74292a69-7822-4de1-bb2c-cdde4749d751">2. Dockworkers on strike</h2>Also on Tuesday, dockworkers at all the eastern US ports from Maine to Texas went on strike, threatening <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworkers-port-strike-ila-impacts-2024-10">a slew of adverse economic impacts</a>, including increased prices on key goods ahead of the holiday shopping season.About 30% of goods imported to and exported from the US pass through the East Coast and Gulf ports, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis, along with about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-markets-react-israel-iran-escalates-dockworkers-strike-helene-2024-10">half of all US ocean imports</a>. The strike could cause shortages of goods and push consumer prices up, but how much depends entirely on how long the work stoppage lasts, experts say.A few days of snarled supply chains likely wouldn't be a major hit to the economy, while a week or longer could have major impacts. Every day, the work stoppage is costing the economy up to $4.5 billion, according to JPMorgan analysts. If the strike goes for at least two weeks, it may <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-port-strike-biggest-stock-market-winners-losers-investing-analysis-2024-10?_gl=1*w94t9f*_ga*MTM5OTQyNzAxOS4xNjc1MDExMTIw*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzg4MTM4OC4zNTQuMS4xNzI3ODgzOTYyLjQ5LjAuMA..">increase inflation.</a> If it lasts a month, it could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/port-strike-impact-costs-us-economy-recession-outlook-shipping-delay-2024-10">cause a recession</a>.And the strike will also have knock-on impacts. For every day the ports are closed, it will take an estimated five days for supply chains to get back to normal, Kent said."We are in a bit of a wait-and-see mode about what the impacts are going to be," Sameera Fazili, former deputy director of the National Economic Council under Biden, told BI. "If the strike goes on for one day or three days, it could take two weeks for some companies to recover, some industries to recover, it could take months for others to fully recover."Some of the imported consumer goods <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-products-most-likely-to-be-impacted-by-port-strike-2024-9">most vulnerable to the port closures</a> include perishable foods like fresh fruits and vegetables, wine, beer, liquor, toys, tires, furniture, and raw commodities like salt, sugar, and gypsum. Kent noted that automotive, pharmaceutical, and industrial equipment supply chains are also vulnerable. US meat, dairy, and poultry exports <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-port-strike-hurt-agriculture-livestorck-dairy-farmers-presidential-election-2024-10">could also be disrupted</a>, as well as coal and heavy agricultural equipment.How much the strike impacts prices depends on how much of a cushion companies have built to deal with any bottlenecks. With the memory of pandemic supply chain crises still fresh, many businesses have become better prepared for disruptions by importing goods ahead of schedule in anticipation of the strike or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polb.com/port-info/news-and-press/port-of-long-beach-achieves-busiest-month-on-record-09-12-2024/">diverting shipments</a> to West Coast ports."The 2020 disruption presented unforeseen challenges but encouraged many firms to diversify their supply chain and seek backup sourcing: preparation that will likely soften the blow of the dockworker strike," Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist at ITR Economics, said in a statement.But mitigation efforts, including redirecting shipments, cost money and push prices up. Bottlenecks also encourage carriers to raise their prices, increasing retail and consumer goods prices, Kent said.Fazili said she's confident the dockworkers' union — the International Longshoremen's Association — and the organization representing their employers — the United States Maritime Alliance — can come to a deal to raise wages and improve benefits for workers. With the election looming, Biden administration officials are particularly incentivized to grease the wheels of their negotiations.<h2 id="b5a7373b-dcda-4543-bf11-a8ea2a739cbd">3. Natural disaster strikes the South</h2>All of this comes as Southern states are scrambling to handle the fallout from a superstorm with billions of dollars in damage. Dozens of people have been killed in the flooding, landslides, and high winds wrought by Hurricane Helene, which washed out an untold number of roads, destroyed homes, and devastated entire towns. Rescue and recovery efforts are still underway, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wcnc.com/article/weather/hurricane/helene/north-carolina-hurricane-helene-missing-people-finder-victims-survivors/275-d811bbc2-754d-4637-b156-7e4af6e1eadb">hundreds of people still missing</a>, particularly in North Carolina.The storm will likely have far-reaching economic impacts, including the immediate costs of providing emergency services for thousands of residents left homeless or without power or water, and the longer-term costs of rebuilding roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. Helene has likely caused between $15 billion and $26 billion in damage to property on top of about $5 billion to $8 billion in lost economic output, according to Moody's Analytics.In the immediate wake of the storm, a slew of residents across the affected states have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/price-gouging-complaints-surge-hurricane-helene-states-fuel-water-hotels-2024-10">reported price gouging</a> by hotels, gas stations, and grocery stores. The hurricane has also disrupted some supply chains, including <a target="_blank" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/10/01/hurricane-helene-iv-fluid-shortage-health-supply-chain">healthcare supplies</a> and high-purity quartz needed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quartz-mine-computer-chips-hurricane-helene-spruce-pine-semiconductor-2024-9">for semiconductor manufacturing</a>."The combination of these events just reemphasizes how important it is for the private sector and companies, which are the ones that control supply chains, to move away from just-in-time and from efficiency only and to recognize that disruptions are on the rise and they ought to be better prepared for that," Fazili said.But the superstorm also threatens much longer-term economic damage, hitting the property insurance industry and the federal flood insurance program. Homeowners in affected areas will likely deal with rising property insurance costs or even lose coverage altogether, experts say."In the short run, the most costly element of the disaster is the damage to homes, property and infrastructure," Adam Kamins, a senior director at Moody's Analytics, told BI. "Longer term, the disaster itself is unlikely to drive people out of the hardest-hit areas, but insurance premiums could rise, denting affordability. This would be especially difficult for Florida, where many private insurers have already left the state."

A trifecta of global crises could snarl supply chains and increase prices

<ul><li>Natural gas prices surged as much as 9% on Wednesday as energy workers in Australia threatened to strike.</li><li>Australia is the world's second-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, so potential work stoppages could threaten global supply of the commodity.</li><li>Natural gas prices have surged 22% over the past week, but are still down 60% from a year ago.</li></ul>The possibility of strikes at natural gas plants in Australia sent the commodity surging as much as 9% on Wednesday.Workers at major liquefied natural gas plants off the coast of Western Australia have voted to inch closer towards a potential work stoppage.If the strikes proceed and are long-lasting, it could have major implications for the global supply of natural gas heading into the typically high-demand winter months, as <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/natural-gas-price-crisis-commodities-outlook-europe-energy-crisis-australia-2022-8">Australia is the world's 2nd largest exporter</a> of liquefied natural gas, trailing only Qatar.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/natural-gas-price">Natural gas prices</a> hit a high of $3.018 per million British thermal units on Wednesday, representing the first time since March 3 that the commodity jumped above the $3 level. Natural gas prices are up 22% over the past week, but are still down 60% from a year-ago.According to the <a href="https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/lng-exports-at-risk-as-woodside-and-chevron-strikes-loom-20230809-p5dv3n" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Australian Financial Review,</a> workers at natural gas plants run by <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/cvx-stock">Chevron</a> and Woodside, an Australian energy company, are organizing for a strike. About 99% of 180 production employees at Woodside's North Rankin, Goodwyn, and Angel natural gas platforms voted on Wednesday for protected action options for the first time in 30 years. Those protected action options include indefinite strikes.The voting results mean that Woodside's natural gas workers can stop work with seven days' notice as early as next week, the Australian Financial Review reported. Meanwhile, hundreds of workers at Chevron's Wheatstone and Gorgon natural gas facilities filed for a protected action ballot on Tuesday, which could ultimately lead to a potential strike.Some of the sticking points in the union negotiations include higher pay for natural gas plant workers and restrictions against outsourcing jobs to contractors. European countries are likely hoping for a quick resolution between the workers and natural gas companies, as they have become heavily reliant on liquefied natural gas since the Ukraine war began, as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-make-more-money-off-energy-exports-thanks-to-europe-2022-6">Russia has mostly stopped supplying the continent</a> with its energy resources.Shares of <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/lng-stock">Cheniere Energy</a>, a US-based exporter of liquefied natural gas, surged as much as 5% in Wednesday's trading session. Shares of Chevron traded about 0.5% higher Wednesday afternoon.

Natural gas prices are soaring as energy workers in Australia look poised to strike, threatening global supply

New Delhi [India], June 19 (ANI): Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (<keyword id="6362419" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HPCL" source="Orion">HPCL</keyword>), which is enhancing its footprints in the <keyword id="6354703" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="natural-gas" source="Orion">natural gas</keyword> market, on Monday said it has secured a major long-term contract from ONGC Petro additions Ltd (OPaL) for the supply of natural gas. HPCL will supply natural gas to ONGC Petro additions Ltd's petrochemical complex at Dahej in Gujarat. OPaL, a joint venture of ONGC, GAIL and GSPC, requires natural gas for operating its own captive power plant for supporting its power and steam requirements. In a stock filing, HPCL said it has won the contract through competitive bidding against a tender floated by OPaL. "HPCL will be supplying 13.53 Trillion Btu of Natural Gas to OPaL during the period October 23 to May 26 under this contract," the filing said. HPCL has ambitions in the natural gas business and is focused to build a strong foothold in the petrochemical and fertilizer sectors. Further, HPCL informed stock it has entered into an agreement with Automin Car Services Pvt Ltd, a subsidiary of Petromin Corporation, Saudi Arabia to establish co-branded HP-Petromin Express vehicle service centres across India. Petromin is a leading mobility solutions player in automotive technology with more than 700 multi-brand quick-service outlets across the GCC region. "This strategic partnership aims to provide world-class customer experiences at affordable prices and offer a comprehensive range of solutions under one roof, including lube change, light repairs, periodic maintenance, battery replacements, tire services, air conditioning repairs and eco carwash facilities," it added. The co-branded HP-Petromin Express vehicle service centres will be located in HPCL's retail outlets in metros and other major cities across India. (ANI)

HPCL bags contract from OPaL for supply of natural gas

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hurricane Helene has caused price-gouging complaints to surge in southeastern states.</li><li>Price gouging involves hiking prices excessively on essential goods, often during emergencies.</li></ul>As <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-destroyed-safe-haven-maples-coffee-shop-north-carolina-2024-10">Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc</a> across southeastern US states, complaints of price gouging have surged.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/grocery-costs-inflation-kamala-harris-ban-price-gouging-election-trump-2024-8#:~:text=Price%20gouging%2C%20in%20which%20companies,high%20grocery%20prices%2C%20as%20well.">Price gouging</a> is when businesses <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-dynamic-pricing-surge-cost-fatigue-2024-7">hike prices on goods or services</a> to excessive levels, often during emergencies, like a natural disaster, taking advantage of high demand and limited supply.Business Insider contacted the states worst hit by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/before-after-satellite-photos-hurricane-helene-destruction-florida-2024-10">the hurricane</a> — North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia — and found that several of them were either inundated with complaints of price gouging or had to issue warnings against it.In South Carolina, which had about 36 storm-related deaths, the Attorney General's office told BI it had documented at least 142 price-gouging complaints since the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-electric-vehicles-evs-owners-fire-risk-safety-tips-2024-10">start of Hurricane Helene.</a>"Of these, most of the complaints are about hotels, gasoline, gas cans, generators, ice, and eggs," said Robert Kittle, communications director for South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson, in an email.He added that more complaints were expected, noting that they still had 246 voicemails and emails to review.However, Kittle said not all of the complaints would warrant further investigation or meet the legal definition of price gouging under the state's law.Wilson, the AG, announced on Thursday that the state's price-gouging law was in effect.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.scag.gov/about-the-office/news/attorney-general-alan-wilson-announces-state-s-price-gouging-law-in-effect-because-of-hurricane-helene/">The announcement</a> said that while the state could expect normal price fluctuations, which are legal, it also anticipated "businesses and individuals looking to unfairly take advantage of the situation," which would violate the law.Kittle said that most of the complaints were coming from upstate South Carolina.In neighboring <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-hits-asheville-beer-microbreweries-north-carolina-floods-2024-9">North Carolina</a>, which experienced the highest death toll of about 56, there were also dozens of price-gouging complaints.A spokesperson for the North Carolina Attorney General's Office said the state's Department of Justice had received 64 complaints alleging price gouging in western North Carolina.Most complaints were about hotel rates as well as grocery and fuel prices, which they said the AG's office was investigating.In <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ncdoj.gov/attorney-general-josh-stein-provides-update-on-price-gouging-after-hurricane-helene/">a statement</a> provided to BI, North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein said: "North Carolina has an anti-price gouging law to make sure that no bad actors try to take advantage of people's desperation.""My team and I aggressively enforce that law and won't let them," he added.Stein noted that more complaints might emerge as residents in western North Carolina, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-damage-port-strike-could-hurt-us-economy-2024-9">heavily impacted by Hurricane Helene,</a> could be facing difficulties connecting to phones or the internet.Florida, which had about 14 storm-related deaths, also received multiple complaints, though the state did not specify how many.Kylie Mason, communications director for Attorney General Ashley Moody, told BI they had received complaints "mostly about fuel and water."On Monday, Moody <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.myfloridalegal.com/newsrelease/consumer-alert-attorney-general-moody-warns-floridians-affected-hurricane-helene-about">issued a warning</a> urging Floridians to be "vigilant" for price gouging.The warning urged anybody suspicious of price gouging on storm-essential items to report it, noting that violators are subject to civil penalties of $1,000 per violation.The attorneys general of Tennessee, which had about eight deaths connected to Hurricane Helene, and Georgia, with about 25, did not immediately respond to BI's request for data. But both states have issued warnings on price gouging.Georgia's Attorney General's Consumer Protection Division <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://consumer.georgia.gov/business-services/emergency-price-controls">warned </a>that "although competition and demand drive prices in our free-market economy," Georgia law prohibits businesses from "taking advantage of the situation" during a state of emergency.It said price increases are only allowed if they reflect legitimate cost increases in stock, transportation, or the retailer's typical markup from the 10 days before the emergency.Similarly, Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti condemned price gouging <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.tn.gov/attorneygeneral/news/2024/10/1/pr24-70.html">in a statement on Tuesday</a>, urging victims to contact the Tennessee Division of Consumer Affairs."Price gouging and scamming vulnerable people after disasters is not only repulsive, it's illegal," he said.In Virginia, which had about two storm-related deaths, there were no complaints of price gouging at the time of reporting."While it is still early, we do not have any reports yet," said Shaun Kenney, director of communications for Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares, in an email Tuesday.Kenney added: "The Virginia Attorney General's Office is doing everything we can to inform the public and make them aware of both their rights and the pathways available to move forward on any complaints or concerns."The issue of price gouging has become a political hot topic in the presidential election cycle, with Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-lower-grocery-prices-inflation-harris-price-gouging-proposal-2024-8">Kamala Harris pledging to stop it</a> in the food and grocery industries if she is elected president.Harris said she plans to pursue the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/grocery-costs-inflation-kamala-harris-ban-price-gouging-election-trump-2024-8">first federal ban on price gouging</a> in response to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-prices-inflation-soaring-corporate-greed-profits-margins-wages-jobs-2023-4">painful inflation</a> in recent years — a plan that has received <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-price-gouging-ceiling-policy-inflation-krugman-oleary-ramsey-2024-8">mixed reviews from economists.</a>

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