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<ul class="summary-list"><li>China last week said it was "not aware" of North Korean troops being sent to Russia.</li><li>Its muted response may undercut its efforts to improve trade with the EU, experts said.</li></ul>With North Korean forces believed to be moving toward <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-cant-sustain-ukraine-attack-without-north-korea-nato-chief-2024-10">Russia's front lines, </a>fears are growing that the Ukraine war is about to enter a new phase.Around 3,000 North Korean soldiers arrived in Russia last week, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_230104.htm">US, South Korean, and Ukrainian intelligence.</a>The reports signaled a deepening military alliance between Russia and North Korea — an alliance that has been met with a muted response from China.China's foreign affairs ministry last week said it was "not aware of the relevant situation."The bland statement may have been aimed at balancing its influence over North Korea and Russia with its relationship with Ukraine's Western allies.Some experts believe such a move could come at a cost.<h2 id="84e9dc8b-068f-459d-b4de-60dc958e5127">A threat to trade</h2>"Unless China distances itself more explicitly from North Korea-Russia cooperation, the West's perception of China as an enabler in the Ukraine war and a growing geopolitical threat will only harden," said a recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/north-korean-troops-russia-dangerous-new-phase-ukraine-war">report</a> by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)."This could further undercut Beijing's efforts to improve its trading relationships with the European Union (EU). Just weeks ago, the EU signaled its growing ire with China, agreeing to impose hefty tariffs on electric vehicles."China is the EU's second-largest trading partner for goods after the US, with bilateral trade reaching<a target="_blank" href="https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/china_en#:~:text=China%20is%20the%20EU's%20second,and%20the%20biggest%20for%20imports."> $799 billion in 2023.</a> However, EU-China relations have become increasingly strained in recent years.Earlier this month, the EU <a target="_blank" href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_24_5041">voted to impose tariffs</a> on Chinese EV manufacturers in a bid to protect its automotive industry from what some politicians believe are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/eu-chinese-ev-subsidies-market-cheap-prices-cars-2023-9">unfairly subsidized Chinese electric vehicles</a>.As <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-electric-vehicles-european-tariffs-retaliation-vw-bmw-mercedes-tesla-2024-10">BI previously reported</a>, the move means Chinese EV makers will be subject to a maximum 35.3% tariff on their vehicles, in addition to an existing 10% levy.That could impact plans to revive China's economy, which has been dragged by factors including youth <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-3q-gdp-growth-stock-market-stimulus-2024-10">unemployment, a housing crisis, and deflation.</a> Earlier this month, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-growth-stimulus-demand-emerging-markets-world-bank-2024-10">the World Bank forecast that China's economic growth</a> would slow to 4.3% next year, down from a forecast of 4.8% for 2024."Beijing would see little benefit to establishing a more formal trilateral alliance because being too closely linked to Russian and North Korean provocative behavior could trigger secondary sanctions against China," wrote Bruce Klingner, a Senior Research Fellow, in an April report for the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.heritage.org/asia/report/china-russia-north-korea-solidarity-poses-risk-the-us-and-its-allies">Heritage Foundation.</a><h2 id="0ef3ca54-23c2-448e-8102-52187e0dce2d">China's balancing act</h2>Analysts believe China is remaining publicly impartial in a bid to save its reputation on an international stage while maintaining its ties with North Korea and Russia.China has provided Russia with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9">diplomatic and economic support </a>as it has faced sanctions over its invasion. The US has said China is also giving Russia increased support for its weapons industry.For North Korea, China has long been its most important ally, providing trade, diplomatic support, and military aid to Kim Jong Un. China and North Korea's mutual aid and cooperation treaty from 1961 is the only existing defense treaty that China has with any country."Declining to distance itself publicly would likely entrench the West's assessment that China seeks to sustain Russia's warfighting capacity," Ali Wyne, a senior Eurasia advisor at the Crisis Group think tank, told Business Insider."Distancing itself publicly, however, could strain China's ties with its alleged 'no limits' partner as well as its only treaty ally."Wyne added that North Korea's reported decision to deploy troops on Russia's behalf makes this balancing act harder for China to sustain — and for the US and the EU to accept.Not everyone agrees, however.Sari Arho Havrén, an associate fellow at the UK's Royal United Services Institute, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-cozying-russia-suits-china-xi-putin-kim-alliance-2024-10">previously told BI </a>that North Korea and Russia would not have moved into such a close alliance without China's blessing.She doesn't believe that the threat of losing partial access to EU trade will cause China to speak more vocally against North Korea and Russia."This doesn't seem to be the case considering the amount of European leaders queuing up to Beijing with business delegations," she said."In addition, the return of Trump to the White House might just drop Europe into China's lap. I don't see how the EU single market and disunited member states could potentially be enough for China to distance itself, particularly from Russia."Ann Marie Dailey, a policy researcher at RAND, also isn't convinced that China is threatened by sanctions."The longer this conflict goes on, the more difficult it will be for ministers and heads of state to make a link between China supporting Russia, Russia hurting Ukraine and therefore needing to endure economic hardship due to sanctions against China," she said.

China's muted response to the Russia-North Korea alliance could come at a cost

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Interest rates and stock returns are expected to decline, impacting investment strategies.</li><li>Historically, stocks and bonds have alternated in performance, affecting portfolio decisions.</li></ul>A diversified investing strategy means a split between stocks and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-a-bond">bonds</a>, at minimum. But for the better part of the last two decades, interest rates were near zero, and real returns in bonds were lacking.Still, investors added them to their portfolios because history has shown us that asset classes can zig and zag, with long <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-and-bond-market-correlation-normal-2014-2">periods of stock market outperformance</a> relative to bonds and intervals where that dynamic flipped.The last two years were great for both asset classes. Elevated rates put the bond market back on investors' minds, while the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> had a solid 26% total return. But depending on who you ask, the future may not be as bright.Yields will be less attractive as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11#:~:text=The%20Fed%20cut%20interest%20rates,country%20recovered%20from%20the%20pandemic.">Fed begins its rate cuts</a> for this cycle. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects stock-market returns to be muted for the coming decade. The S&amp;P 500 is predicted to see a mere 3% annualized return over the next 10 years, which could lag the 10-year Treasury at an expected 4% yield, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-beat-stock-market-returns-next-decade-goldman-sachs-2024-10">recent note</a> by the investment bank's chief US equity strategist David Kostin.If the bears are right, investors may be forced to take on more risk for returns. Sounds gloomy, but for bond traders like Mark Rieder, who has over two decades of experience in the sector, it could be an opportunity to dig for bargains in corporate credit.Generating alpha for a credit trader could mean beating a peer, a Bloomberg fixed income index that matches the category of bonds traded, or simply remaining in positive territory in terms of total returns when the market is down, Rieder told Business Insider."Over the past 10 years, when interest rates were very low, it was not an exciting time to be a credit analyst and a portfolio manager," Rieder said. "But it's much more interesting today, and I'm really excited about that."However, active debt investing takes a good level of skill and consistent effort to make the right credit selection, according to his new book, "Reminiscences of a Bond Operator." Like the stock-picking process, following the crowd or consensus won't result in alpha. A credit trader must conduct the same level of fundamental analysis and dig into a company's balance sheet, earnings calls, 10Qs, and 10Ks, among other things, to determine valuation."I've always believed that a good credit analyst is also a really good equity analyst because you really need to understand the capital structure of the companies that you're evaluating and all of their different needs," Rieder said. "Most companies want to have their stock price go up, and so as a credit analyst, you need to understand that so that you can understand what their motivations are."It's especially important now, as the credit space faces its own set of challenges. Like the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/are-we-in-a-recession">business cycle</a>, credit has its booms and busts based on macro conditions and supply and demand. In a strong economic environment, corporate cash flows rise, and companies increase borrowing with favorable lending terms. But when times are tight, companies deleverage until their debt is less than their cash flow. Once that equilibrium is satisfied, more borrowing ensues, according to his book.Rieder said credit is in the boom part of the cycle. This might sound surprising, considering debt has been expensive for the better part of the last two years. But most companies were locked into low yields before rates rose, he noted. As debt turnover increases, investors need to be cautious."There's a lag impact on the increase in rates. Most companies borrow for long periods of time, five years, 10 years," Rieder said. "A lot of companies issued debt when interest rates were very low. They're now only starting to refinance that low-coupon debt. That, in turn, is what causes an impact."He doesn't expect that the Fed's cutting cycle will mitigate the crunch. The central bank can impact front-end yields, but the back end is driven by additional considerations, he noted. The 10-year rose to 4.3% shortly after the first rate cut of September, a signal that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-election-forecast-most-accurate-economist-predicts-outcome-economic-impact-2024-10">investors were looking ahead</a> at other economic risk factors, including concerns over the government's ballooning deficit, he added. Additionally, economic conditions such as elevated credit card debt pose concerns for future corporate profits.<h2 id="101d0bc7-10c7-46f9-a758-eea160588283">Trading credit</h2>Right now, investment-grade credit spreads are tight. The yields in corporate bonds aren't much higher than in government bonds, meaning less compensation for more risk. But if we move from the boom to the bust phase, credit spreads could widen, and that could create opportunities in the credit space, he said.While spreads are tight, he prefers front-end yield or pairing trades with cheap optionality. The cost of shorting a credit index like the CDX Investment Grade 5-Year Index, a credit-default-swap index that tracks the credit risk of large US investment-grade companies, is low. And since spreads are trading at historically tight levels, it's less likely to get much lower, which could limit potential losses, he said. This position can then be paired with a trade expected to perform positively.An example he provides of a market-neutral pair trade could look like buying a corporate bond in a sector with structural tailwinds, such as a natural gas producer set to benefit from increased demand and rising energy prices, or airplane lessors who benefit from higher lease rates due to a tight aircraft supply — a situation that's unlikely to ease in the near term because of production challenges faced by manufacturers. Then, take a short position in an interest-rate future to hedge against the bond's interest-rate risk."This trade works if natural gas prices remain stable or rise, leading the energy bond to outperform the overall corporate bond market," Rieder said. "It's an excellent opportunity to capitalize on the current tight credit spread conditions and complacency in the overall credit market."Having liquidity can also give you an upper hand. As spreads widen, investors may be forced into selling higher-quality credit because they can't offload the lower-quality ones, he said."There are huge opportunities in credit if you remain liquid during dislocations," Rieder said. "Other investors are going to be looking for liquidity. They can't sell what they want to, so they sell what they can, and that can lead to opportunities to buy cheap assets."

A veteran bond operator shares an alpha-generating strategy for dropping yields and muted stock-market returns

The Indian IT services sector is staring at a second consecutive year of muted <keyword id="19965932" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="revenue-growth" source="keywords">revenue growth</keyword> due to modest increase in <keyword id="21414675" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tech-spends" source="keywords">tech spends</keyword> in Europe and the US, a domestic rating agency said on Wednesday. Crisil Ratings said it expects the sector to grow at 5-7 per cent in FY25, after a growth of 6 per cent estimated to have been achieved in FY24. The overall industry size is pegged at USD 250 billion and it creates over 50 lakh direct jobs. "The slowdown in technology spend will continue this fiscal, weighing on the revenue growth of IT service providers," said Aditya Jhaver, director at Crisil. The industry is, however, expected to sustain in the key metric of profitability, as the operating profit margins will be stable at 22-23 per cent, the agency said, attributing it to prudent management of <keyword id="19999266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employee-costs" source="keywords">employee costs</keyword>. Crisil said the sectoral revenues achieved a compounded annual growth rate of 12 per cent for the decade through FY24. High interest rates and economic slowdown in client markets led to a modest single-digit growth in tech spends by companies in the banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), retail, technology and communications sectors in FY24, the agency said. It said these four sectors account for nearly two-thirds of the industry's revenues. Jhaver said revenue from BFSI and retail segments will continue to be a drag with subdued growth of 4-5 per cent in FY25. Manufacturing and healthcare, which contribute a tenth of the revenue, were the only bright spots and continued double-digit growth in tech spend given the focus on process automation and research and development-based analytics, especially in healthcare. As revenue growth remained subdued, IT service companies pulled back on addition of fresh talent, resulting in headcount reductions by 4 per cent in 2023 by top 12 companies. This, along with the decline in attrition to 13 per cent as of December 2023 from the high of 20 per cent in FY23 provided a breather by limiting higher-cost replacement hiring during FY24, it said. Associate director Joanne Gonsalves said the ratings company expects IT service providers to remain "cautious" on fresh hiring in FY25 too, which will maintain employee utilisation at a healthy level of ~85 per cent. Continued healthy cash generation, strong balance sheets and sizeable cash surplus will keep the credit quality of IT service providers stable, the rating agency said. Players will continue to eye acquisitions, especially small and mid-sized opportunities that could enhance their product baskets and increase digital capabilities, it said. An appreciation in the rupee value or sustained delay in economic revival in key markets amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts could pose downside risks, it added. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/realme-narzo-70-narzo-70x-5g-smartphones-launched-in-india-starting-at-11999/articleshow/109557895.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/realme-narzo-70-narzo-70x-5g-smartphones-launched-in-india-starting-at-11999/articleshow/109557895.cms" target="_blank">Realme Narzo 70, Narzo 70X 5G smartphones launched in India starting at ₹11,999</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/apple-let-loose-event-scheduled-for-may-7-ipads-expected-to-be-launched/articleshow/109553148.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/apple-let-loose-event-scheduled-for-may-7-ipads-expected-to-be-launched/articleshow/109553148.cms" target="_blank">Apple Let Loose event scheduled for May 7 – New iPad models expected to be launched</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/google-pixel-8a-may-be-more-expensive-than-its-predecessor-as-per-a-new-leak/articleshow/109499394.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/google-pixel-8a-may-be-more-expensive-than-its-predecessor-as-per-a-new-leak/articleshow/109499394.cms" target="_blank">Google Pixel 8a may be more expensive than its predecessor, as per a new leak</a>

Indian IT sector staring at 2nd straight year of muted revenue growth: Crisil

<ul><li>US stocks surged on Friday following a stronger than expected March jobs report.</li><li>The US economy added 303,000 jobs last month, well ahead of economist estimates of 212,000 jobs.</li><li>The jobs report showed muted wage inflation, which could suggest a mild CPI report next week.</li></ul>US stocks surged on Friday, recouping most of Thursday's losses after the March jobs report bested analyst estimates.The US economy <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-wages-growth-in-march-unemployment-rate-labor-market-2024-4#:~:text=The%20US%20unemployment%20rate%20dropped,Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics%20said.">added 303,000 jobs in March,</a> well ahead of economist estimates of 212,000. Investors are electing to put a positive spin on the strong economic data under the idea that expansion will drive earnings growth. That optimism appeared to outweigh concerns that a Fed rate cut will be delayed.The report also saw the unemployment rate fall to 3.8% from 3.9%, and it also showed easing wage inflation during the month. That's important because wage inflation plays a key part in overall inflation, suggesting that next week's CPI report might not surprise to the upside. "Another blowout payroll report suggests the economy is running strong and far from recession, with the economy averaging 276,000 job growth per month over the last quarter," Carson Group strategist Sonu Varghese told Business Insider. "On balance, this would push out any rate cuts by the Fed, but easing wage growth means we're not in the middle of a labor-market induced inflation surge."Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Friday: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,204.34, up 1.1%</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 38,904.04, up 0.8% (307 points)</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq Composite</a>: 16,248.52, up 1.2%</li></ul>Here's what else happened today: <ul><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-layoffs-tim-cook-getting-serious-challenges-car-china-iphone-2024-4">A string of layoffs in Apple's R&amp;D division suggests that CEO Tim Cook is trying to re-focus the company</a> after its failed EV project.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-peak-bearish-signal-big-tech-stock-market-btc-2024-4">A peak in bitcoin would signal turbulent times ahead for the stock market</a> over the next six months, according to a Wall Street strategist.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/feds-transfer-silk-road-linked-bitcoin-coinbase-2-billion-wallet-2024-4">The US government transferred 2,000 bitcoin to Coinbase</a> from its $2 billion cryptocurrency wallet earlier this week.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-crash-weakness-model-y-price-cut-inventory-2024-4">Tesla stock fell as much as 6% after a Reuters report said</a> the company is scrapping its low-cost Model 2 vehicle, though Elon Musk denied the report. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/destiny-tech100-stock-price-investor-private-access-spacex-openai-dxyz-2024-4">A fund that offers investors the chance to buy stock in pre-IPO companies has soared as much as 818%</a> since its debut two weeks ago. </li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil edged higher by 0.20% to $86.76 a barrel. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, jumped by 0.39% to $91.00 a barrel. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> jumped 1.50% to $2,343.20 per ounce. </li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose 7 basis points to 4.39%. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> dropped by 0.99% to $67,844. </li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks surge after strong March jobs report and muted wage inflation

According to the business solutions provider Quess Corp, about 65 per cent of the aggregate demand emerged from Development, ERP, Automotive Design, Testing, and Administration skills. In addition to these functional skill suites, incremental demand for skills related to Gen AI, <keyword id="6357343" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="data-science" source="Orion">Data Science</keyword>, DevOps, Cloud, Automotive Engineering, <keyword id="137092" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cyber-security" source="Orion">Cyber Security</keyword>, Networking Specialists and more were also noted in Q2. "For the first time in recent history, large IT services companies have shown a decline in headcount and reduced guidance values, signalling a collective exercise of caution in navigating the future," said Vijay Sivaram, CEO of Quess <keyword id="3206814" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="it-staffing" source="Orion">IT Staffing</keyword>. "Opportunities abound for those who invest in upskilling, with a notable shift in the way businesses operate, as over 85 per cent of Indian businesses plan to invest in AI within the next two years," he added. Moreover, the report mentioned there is a noticeable uptick in fresher demand within sectors such as Engineering, Manufacturing, Healthcare, and Retail. Skills pertaining to Data Engineering, Development (Java, Angular), ERPs, Power BI, Network Engineering, Cybersecurity, and UI/UX are particularly sought after among early career professionals. According to the report, the IT sector in India is experiencing a notable transformation as it expands beyond its initial technology hub, Bengaluru. Emerging tech hubs like Pune, Hyderabad, Mumbai, Chennai, and Delhi NCR are gaining prominence. This shift is driven by their flourishing tech industries and the presence of both domestic and international companies, propelling them to become established, mature technology hubs in India. City-wise trends for technology hiring demand in India are relatively concentrated, with the top five cities accounting for over 79 per cent of all job postings.

IT hiring remains muted, talent with functional skills surges in Q2: Report

<ul><li><keyword id="46002" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="Orion">Gold prices</keyword> have experienced a significant decline in the past month, largely due to the notable increase in US real yields. </li><li>The foreseen trajectory for gold prices encompasses a range of $1,900/oz to $2,000/oz within the initial half of 2024. </li><li>In the past month, Indian gold prices declined by approximately 1.2%. </li></ul>Gold prices have experienced a further decline of around four percent in the past month. This correction can be attributed to a significant increase of approximately 50 basis points observed in the US 10-year real yield, according to the Gold Research Report by ICICI Bank Global Markets. Gold traders have also kept an eye on the US Federal Reserve rate action. A Kotak Securities report says, “COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc) gold prices plunged for the third consecutive week, as robust US economic data and slightly hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (<keyword id="136502" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fomc" source="Orion">FOMC</keyword>) meeting minutes reinforced speculation that monetary policymakers may not be done raising interest rates yet.” <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="From ‘hard-landing’ scenario to soft-landing outlook" comment="subhead" text="From ‘hard-landing’ scenario to soft-landing outlook">From ‘hard-landing’ scenario to soft-landing outlook</cmsannotation> According to the ICICI Bank Global Markets report, the upward movement of US nominal and real yields reflects a shift from anticipating a 'hard-landing' scenario for the US economy to a more optimistic 'soft-landing' outlook. “The safe haven metal has been continuously falling over the week, as upbeat economic data improved the conviction that US might avoid a hard landing and thus rates might stay higher for longer,” says Ravindra V Rao, VP-head commodity research, Kotak Securities. This change is driven by the resilience of <keyword id="18519909" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-domestic-demand" source="Orion">US domestic demand</keyword>, leading to a positive adjustment in growth forecasts for 2023. Additionally, market response has been influenced by indications from the FOMC that it might consider a 25 basis points rate hike at the November policy meeting, with an intention to maintain higher rates for an extended period. This decision is influenced by tight labour markets and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation levels that remain above the targeted 2%. However, rao says that gold prices have steadied ahead of this week’s <keyword id="747929" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jackson-hole" source="Orion">Jackson Hole</keyword> symposium in Wyoming and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a talk on the economic outlook on 25th August. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="subhead" text="Gold price outlook"><keyword id="1688476" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-price-outlook" source="Orion">Gold price outlook</keyword></cmsannotation> Over the remaining course of 2023, a bearish trading environment is anticipated for gold prices, given the unlikely prospect of substantial declines in both US real and nominal yields. Analysts at ICICI Bank Global Markets have revised the projection for gold prices subsequently downward, indicating a trading range spanning from $1850/oz to $1950/oz, with a potential downside of $1800/oz throughout 2023. As the transition to 2024 approaches, the potential for an emerging uptrend in gold prices becomes contingent on the expectation that the delayed impact of US monetary tightening will induce a weakening effect on US growth. Such a scenario may result in a neutral stance from the FOMC regarding the outlook for monetary policy. Not excluding the possibility, the FOMC could initiate a rate-cutting cycle from Q2 2024, potentially leading to decreased US yields and an increased appetite for gold. Consequently, the foreseen trajectory for gold prices encompasses a range of $1900/oz to $2000/oz within the initial half of 2024. Additionally, an upswing in interest from central bank gold acquisitions might contribute to driving prices upward in the medium-term. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Indian gold view" comment="subhead" text="Indian gold view">Indian gold view</cmsannotation> In the past month, local gold prices declined by approximately 1.2%, aligning with global market movements; however, a strengthening USD/INR exchange rate moderated the extent of the drop. Importantly, gold imports surged notably, reaching 89 tonnes in July 2023 compared to 63 tonnes in June 2023. This increase translated to a higher import value of $5.0 billion in July 2023 compared to $3.7 billion in June 2023. This upward trend in imports mirrors robust domestic demand. Anticipated import patterns suggest a steady trend from August to September, followed by an increase in October and November due to the festive season.

Gold prices likely to stay muted for the rest of 2023 at least

Hello, readers. I'm senior reporter Phil Rosen, writer of Insider's markets newsletter <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/10-things-opening-bell?r=US&amp;IR=T" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10 Things Before the Opening Bell</a>.If you missed Jerome Powell's remarks from his first day on Capitol Hill yesterday, the TLDR is that more rate hikes are coming because the economy's still running hot.Here's how Powell put it: "The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated."Let's get into how <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-markets-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-rate-hikes-march-testimony-2023-3">markets</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jerome-powell-fed-wall-street-rate-hikes-recession-testimony-congress-2023-3">strategists</a>, and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-markets-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-rate-hikes-march-testimony-2023-3">traders</a> reacted to the hawkish commentary. This post first appeared in 10 Things Before the Opening Bell, a newsletter by Insider that brings you the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Sign up <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/10-things-opening-bell?r=US&amp;IR=T" rel="">here</a>. Download Insider's app <a href="https://link.insider.com/click/27645591.160803/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaW5zaWRlci5jb20vYXBwP25yX2VtYWlsX3JlZmVyZXI9MSZ1dG1fc291cmNlPVNhaWx0aHJ1JnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NvbnRlbnQ9T3BlbmluZ19iZWxs/62667762063d6b9bef0cffb3Bf9c9aa56" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here.</a><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jerome-powell-fed-wall-street-rate-hikes-recession-testimony-congress-2023-3" rel="nofollow sponsored"></a>1. The market response to Powell's testimony was anything but muted. Major indexes all fell more than 1% following comments from the Fed boss, while the 2-year Treasury note jumped to its <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-markets-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-rate-hikes-march-testimony-2023-3">highest mark since 2007</a>.Remember, when the Fed raises interest rates, the move influences a range of loan products and it becomes more expensive for companies and individuals to borrow money, which is <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-markets-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-rate-hikes-march-testimony-2023-3">supposed to cause less spending</a> and generally tighten conditions in the real economy. The idea is to eventually lower inflation — which <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-high-is-inflation-cpi-report-january-price-growth-2023-2">most recently clocked in at 6.4%</a> — but the more rate hikes we see, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jerome-powell-fed-wall-street-rate-hikes-recession-testimony-congress-2023-3">the greater the risk of a recession</a>. Higher rates also drag on stocks because the higher cost of debt eats into corporate profitability. They also have the effect of making other investments a more attractive alternative to stocks.For reference, the 2-year Treasury is yielding nearly as much as the S&amp;P 500 has returned in 2023, all while being a much less risky bet. So in short: stocks sold off, bond yields jumped, and traders eyed greater potential for a bigger rate hike this month. "If the totality of the data were to indicate that <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jerome-powell-fed-wall-street-rate-hikes-recession-testimony-congress-2023-3">faster tightening is warranted</a>, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said.At the last Federal Open Market Committee decision on February 1, policymakers downshifted to a 25-basis-point hike, which followed a 50-basis-point move in December and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jerome-powell-fed-wall-street-rate-hikes-recession-testimony-congress-2023-3">three 75-basis-point moves before that</a>.But Powell's now <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jerome-powell-fed-wall-street-rate-hikes-recession-testimony-congress-2023-3">opened the door</a> to up-shifting to another 50 basis-point move.Before he spoke on the Hill, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-markets-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-rate-hikes-march-testimony-2023-3">traders had been pricing in about 31% odds</a> for a half-point rate hike in March. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-markets-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-rate-hikes-march-testimony-2023-3">Those odds doubled on Tuesday</a>, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. "Powell just said the quiet part out loud," Callie Cox, US analyst for eToro said Tuesday. "The economy is performing <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-markets-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-rate-hikes-march-testimony-2023-3">impressively well</a>, but that could <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jerome-powell-fed-wall-street-rate-hikes-recession-testimony-congress-2023-3">complicate the Fed's efforts</a> to bring inflation down."And John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management, said the comments weren't surprising but investors should be <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jerome-powell-fed-wall-street-rate-hikes-recession-testimony-congress-2023-3">taking Powell's "higher-for-longer" warning seriously</a>. Did anything about Powell's comments yesterday surprise you? What will you be watching for in his statement today? Tweet me (<a href="https://twitter.com/philrosenn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">@philrosenn</a>) or email me (<a href="mailto:prosen@insider.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prosen@insider.com</a>) to let me know. In other news:<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ken-griffin-earnings-citadel-hedge-fund-markets-rich-list-investing-2023-3" rel="nofollow sponsored"></a><div type="image" title="Citadel CEO Ken Griffin speaks at the 2022 Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, May 2, 2022." height="3782" width="7565" msid="98497783" hostid="261"></div>2. US stock futures struggle to push higher early Wednesday, after tumbling yesterday thanks to the prospect of more hikes. Powell will be speaking again today, this time before a House committee. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/premarket" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Here are the latest market moves</a>.3. Earnings on deck: Adidas, Admiral Group, and more, all <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar">reporting</a>.4. Leading Wall Street firms and analysts have a lot to say about the AI boom. The nascent industry could be worth more than $15 trillion by 2030, according to leading experts. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-in-ai-artificial-intelligence-chatgpt-stock-picks-2023-3">Here's how the pros recommend capitalizing on the new tech wave.</a>5. Citadel's Ken Griffin made $4.1 billion in 2022. He topped Institutional Investors' rich list for the first time in six years after his flagship fund surged 38% in the 12-month stretch. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ken-griffin-earnings-citadel-hedge-fund-markets-rich-list-investing-2023-3">His 2022 earnings are the highest ever in the history of the rankings.</a>6. Oil prices are flashing signs that the US will avoid a recession. Benchmark crude prices are an underrated indicator of a downturn, and right now they suggest reason for optimism, according to DataTrek Research: <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-recession-prediction-gas-spending-soft-landing-datatrek-2023-3">"The risk of a recession over the near term seems quite low."</a>7. Morgan Stanley is warning investors to brace for US stocks to come crashing down once again. The firm's strategists said the extreme valuations for companies now echo the 2022 bear market — <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bear-market-crash-extreme-valuations-2022-bear-morgan-stanley-stocks-2023-3">which suggests the "real damage" for this cycle may still be ahead</a>.8. Dan Lane has interviewed hundreds of real-estate investors. He shared three of his favorite examples from his podcast with 100,000 monthly listeners of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-investing-strategies-financial-freedom-rental-income-units-lane-2023-3">how people have used real-estate investing to accomplish their financial goals. </a>9. Morgan Stanley recommended a batch of stocks that can protect your portfolio from a coming market downturn. Margin expectations have fallen at the fastest rate since the financial crisis as earnings turn negative — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-tech-stocks-to-buy-investing-earnings-recession-morgan-stanley-2023-3">but these 16 tech stocks look poised to rise anyway</a>.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-outlook-artificial-intelligence-stocks-chatgpt-ai-gpu-chips-2023-3" rel="nofollow sponsored"></a><div type="image" title="Nvidia stock price, March 8, 2023" height="1228" width="1340" msid="98497784" hostid="261"></div>10. Nvidia has room to climb another 19%, according to Credit Suisse analysts. When it comes to artificial intelligence, no other tech firm comes close, the bank said. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-outlook-artificial-intelligence-stocks-chatgpt-ai-gpu-chips-2023-3">Shares of the top chip-maker have soared more than 60% year-to-date.</a>Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet <a href="https://twitter.com/philrosenn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">@philrosenn</a> or email <a href="mailto:prosen@insider.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prosen@insider.com</a>.Edited by Max Adams (<a href="https://twitter.com/maxradams?lang=en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">@maxradams</a>) in New York and Hallam Bullock (<a href="https://twitter.com/hallam_bullock" target="_blank" rel="noopener">@hallam_bullock</a>) in London.

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