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<ul><li>Urban cities in the country including Mumbai, Delhi and Ahmedabad are showing a dip in the number of infections and cases. </li><li><keyword id="48434" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="BMC">BMC</keyword> Sero survey indicates that 57% from slums in three wards in Mumbai have developed antibodies </li><li>Experts now believe that some parts of the country, especially the slums of India’s financial capital have developed Herd Immunity. </li><li>Herd Immunity occurs when a large number of people become immune to a contagious disease after being infected to it. </li><li>Business Insider India spoke to experts to understand the road ahead from here. </li></ul>Herd immunity occurs when a large number of people become immune to a contagious disease after being infected to it. The latest sets of data from the two of India’s biggest metro cities, New Delhi and Mumbai, has sparked the hope for herd immunity against COVID-19 but experts warn it may be too soon to rejoice. More than half of the population residing in slums in three different regions in Mumbai contracted coronavirus and developed its anti-bodies, according to a sero-surveillance study conducted by the city’s civic body, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFRE) and NITI Aayog (India’s premier think tank). <div type="image" title="Mumbai Sero Survey" msid="77238688" hostid="261"></div> Mumbai, where 800,000 people live in slums, has reported over 110,000 infections and 6,000 fatalities till June 29. The sero-surveillance started on June 3 and 6,936 samples out of an estimated 8,870 were collected from slum and non-slum population of three civic wards - R-North, M-West and F-North - in the first half of July. The case for possible herd immunity <div type="image" title="Dharavi2" msid="77238788" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Tempreature check up at Dharavi&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> “Although it is still unclear what level of prevalence leads to herd immunity, findings indicate at least in slums this could be attained sooner or later if the immunity exists and persists in a significant proportion of the population." the BMC statement read. “If someone is exposed and they develop antibodies, we can detect those antibodies and it gives us a relatively decent indicator that they were exposed. The interesting thing about the study is it was only looking for asymptomatic individuals. Symptomatic people are going to the system, they are getting treated, managed etc. Asymptomatic is something none of us could understand,” Dr. Marcus Ranney, General Manager (India) Thrive Global explained. This comes a week after a Delhi government survey stated that 30% of the people living in the national capital had anti-bodies of COVID-19. However, the jury is still out on whether herd immunity can stave off COVID-19 infections in the future. Here’s why herd immunity can’t be taken for granted <div type="image" title="Dharavi" msid="77238726" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;A child walks holding his grandfather&amp;#39;s walking stick at Dharavi&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> “We have to be very careful with the concept of allowing people to get infected with this virus to develop natural (herd) immunity. This approach does not seem to work (in this case). This is a very contagious infection, and it is clear that the virus can be devastating to those over the age of 60 or with underlying medical conditions,” said Issac Bogoch from the University of Toronto, Canada <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/health/news/herd-immunity-doesnt-seem-to-work-for-covid-19-need-to-be-careful/articleshow/77218380.cms">said in an interview with IANS</a>. The other downside of living in the hope of herd immunity is that it could put a lot of vulnerable people at risk. “Asymptomatic carry the same viral load as a symptomatic patient and they are not protected. An asymptomatic carrier is as lethal and as vulnerable as symptomatic. One asymptomatic can spread it to 217 people if the person is in a closed/family range, ” Prof. Dr. Sanjeev Bagai, the chairperson of Nephron Clinics, told Business Insider India Many of these people who get the virus passed on to them could be older people and those with co-morbidities like diabetes, Hepatitis and heart diseases to name a few. India has been the third-worst affected country and has reported 1.5 million cases. And even if a person does develop antibodies to fight COVID-19, they may not stay in the body forever. Research studies across the world have shown that the immunity drops 8 weeks or so after contracting COVID-19, according to Bagai. Even Ranney, who hopes that there will be herd immunity someday, warns against lowering the guard too soon. “We do not know the period of time this immunity lasts. We could see a repeated infection in the same individual (recovered patients). A King’s College study in London was suggestive that the immunity drops quite significantly,” <a href="https://twitter.com/BiIndia/status/1288331087832182786">Dr. Ranney </a>said. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/mahindra-and-mahindra-finance-managing-director-gets-candid-about-the-rights-issue/articleshow/77212386.cms">EXCLUSIVE: M&amp;M Financial Managing Director gets candid about the rights issue, the bleak prospects for this year and why there should be no more loan moratorium</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/india-stock-brokers-hit-by-sebi-direct-market-access/articleshow/77198064.cms">India's broking industry just got the shock of its life – SEBI may soon allow investors to trade directly on the exchanges</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/these-10-indian-colleges-have-produced-indias-most-funded-startup-owners/slidelist/77140792.cms">These 10 Indian colleges have produced India’s most funded startup owners</a>

The slums in India's financial capital are showing signs of herd immunity but it is too soon to conclude

Mumbai, Buoyed by the encouraging results of the first Serological Surveillance for SARS-CoV2 Infection, the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) will conduct another similar survey from August 10, a top official said here on Thursday. BMC Additional Municipal Commissioner Suresh Kakani said that after the results of the first survey in early-July, which tentatively pointed to '<keyword id="2147226" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="herd-immunity">herd immunity</keyword>', another survey will be carried out in the same BMC wards to further confirm this outcome. "It will be conducted in the regions of Matunga, Sion, <keyword id="157686" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Wadala">Wadala</keyword> (F/North), Chembur, Tilak Nagar (M/West) and Dahisar, Mandapeshwar (R/North), with a similar sample size but with different people from slums and housing complexes," Kakani told IANS. The outcome of the second survey -- likely to be available by early-September -- would enable the health authorities to state with confidence the developing or prevalence of 'herd immunity' in those regions, and chart out a Covid-19 combat strategy for other parts of Mumbai, he added. The country's biggest cross-sectional antibodies survey, it was conducted by the BMC along with NITI Aayog and TISS for 12-14 days in the first half of July, covering 6,936 people which threw up unanticipated results. Among other things, it pointed at women and slumdwellers leading the march towards a 'herd immunity' against Covid-19 in Mumbai - the country's worst-hit city. The survey showed that 57 per cent of those tested in the slums were exposed to and developed antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 Virus, compared to merely 16 per cent in housing complexes. For the slums, the figures thrown up were 59.30 per cent women (out of 2,297 tested) and 53.20 per cent men (out of 1,937 tested), who had developed antibodies against Covid. In the housing complexes, 16.80 per cent of the women tested and 14.90 per cent of the men tested had developed the antibodies. The BMC interprets this high exposure in slums to shared common facilities like toilets, water-taps, high population density and lack of physical distancing compared to the residents in housing complexes. With the results suggesting more asymptomatic infections, this higher exposure in slums points to an extremely low death-rate in Mumbai - "as low as 0.05 to 0.10 per cent" - instead of the existing 5.5 per cent. The official explained that the presence of antibodies indicated that the person had been infected, battled it away and in the process developed a certain level of resistance to the virus. Accordingly, more people with antibodies in a community is considered a positive sign as the virus had limited scope to spread, implying success of measures like wearing masks, physical distancing, etc, in these areas. Simultaneously, even the presence of antibodies among fewer persons in the housing complexes is considered encouraging as it indicates lesser number of infectees, due to better hygiene, more physical distancing and other interventions by the BMC, the official added. "These results will be valuable to learn more about 'herd immunity'. Although it is still unclear at what level of prevalence does herd immunity kicks in, findings indicate that, at least in slums, this could be attained sooner than later, if the immunity exists and persists in a significant proportion of the population," the BMC informed. The Anti-SARS-CoV2-IgG antibodies were detected using Chemiluminescence assay (CLIA) by Abbott group, in what is billed as the largest such cross-sectional survey in India. It was carried out in collaboration with Kasturba Molecular Diagnostic Laboratory, Translational Health Science and Technology Institute, ATE Chandra Foundation and IDFC Institute. The development comes a fortnight after <keyword id="2555741" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="The-World-Health-Organisation">the World Health Organisation</keyword> (WHO) on July 11 acknowledged the success of Maharashtra government in combating the Covid-19 outbreak in Dharavi, the largest slum in Asia. (Quaid Najmi can be contacted at: q.najmi@ians.in) --IANS qn/in

Mumbai sero surveillance round 2 to begin from August 10

<ul><li>The number of infections in some of the big cities are already past their peak and are likely to trend down hereon. </li><li>The latest Sero survey from two of the most affected cities in the country — <keyword id="6358070" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="mumbai">Mumbai</keyword> and Delhi — have sparked the hope for <keyword id="2147226" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="herd-immunity">herd immunity</keyword> against COVID-19. </li><li><keyword id="12864" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chennai">Chennai</keyword>, which recently emerged as the worst-affected city in Tamil Nadu, is likely to witness its peak soon.</li></ul>India's COVID-19 tally stands went from 1.4 million to 1.5 million in 2 days with a total of 34,193 deaths. At the same time the recoveries are just a little short of the million mark, according to <keyword id="3717035" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="the-union-health-ministry">the Union Health Ministry</keyword> data. However, there is a silver lining. As per the latest data by <a href="https://www.timesnownews.com/times-facts">India Outbreak Report</a>, the number of infections in Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedabad and Thane are already past their peak and are likely to trend down hereon. These are the dates in which other cities and states are likely to see the maximum number of daily infections, after which the daily increase will start waning. <div type="image" title="Peak-Pandemic (1)" msid="77242567" hostid="261"></div> The latest sero survey from two of the most affected cities in the country — Mumbai and Delhi — have sparked the hope for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/health/news/slums-in-mumbai-are-showing-signs-of-herd-immunity-but-it-is-too-soon-to-conclude/articleshow/77238721.cms">herd immunity</a> against COVID-19. However, experts warn that it may be too soon to say that a big chunk of the population has developed antibodies against the novel <keyword id="1754604" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="coronavirus">coronavirus</keyword>. Even those who may have, may see the resistance depleting after some time. The fall in active cases and fresh infections should not be a cue for being less careful. The count may fall but it will not disappear in a hurry. Masks, gloves, social distancing and other protective measures should continue to avoid contraction. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/mahindra-and-mahindra-finance-managing-director-gets-candid-about-the-rights-issue/articleshow/77212386.cms">EXCLUSIVE: M&amp;M Financial Managing Director gets candid about the rights issue, the bleak prospects for this year and why there should be no more loan moratorium</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/india-stock-brokers-hit-by-sebi-direct-market-access/articleshow/77198064.cms">India's broking industry just got the shock of its life – SEBI may soon allow investors to trade directly on the exchange</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/these-10-indian-colleges-have-produced-indias-most-funded-startup-owners/slidelist/77140792.cms">These 10 Indian colleges have produced India’s most funded startup owners</a>

These are the projected dates for peak COVID-19 infections in Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Jaipur

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The slums in India's financial capital are showing signs of herd immunity but it is too soon to conclude

BI India Bureau

Mumbai sero surveillance round 2 to begin from August 10

IANS

These are the projected dates for peak COVID-19 infections in Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Jaipur

BI India Bureau

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