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Rupee appreciated 7 paise to 84.22 against the US dollar in morning trade on Tuesday, on a sharp rebound in domestic equities amid improved investor risk appetite. Forex traders said the <keyword id="21663515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MSCI-equity-index" source="keywords">MSCI equity index</keyword> rebalancing significantly boosted sentiment for Indian equity markets as <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword> broke a 40-session streak of net selling by purchasing Rs 9,947 crores on Monday, lending robust support to the rupee. Moreover, the win by the incumbent government in Maharashtra, further fueled investor confidence in economic stability, sparking a rally in equity markets. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.27 and moved in a tight range and touched an early high of 84.22 against the greenback, registering a gain of 7 paise over its previous close. On Monday, the rupee appreciated 12 paise to close at 84.29 against US dollar. "While Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies loom large, the rupee's outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s projection of a GDP growth rebound to 7.6 per cent in Q3 has infused fresh confidence in India's economic trajectory. Additionally, a surge in capital inflows is likely to provide robust support," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further said that the RBI's vigilant stance will be critical in managing volatility, with interventions likely at key levels to maintain stability. "Given the factors, the USDINR pair appears to face resistance around the 84.50 level, with expectations of trading within a range of 83.80 to 84.50, leaning toward a downside bias," he said. On the global front, US Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent's fiscal deficit reduction agenda capped US Treasury yields, Pabari said. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.28 per cent at 107.11. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.33 per cent to USD 73.25 per barrel in futures trade. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share equity benchmark Sensex jumped 167.76 points or 0.21 per cent to 80,277.61 points in early trade, while Nifty jumped 55.80 points or 0.23 per cent to 24,277.70 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, purchasing shares worth Rs 9,947.55 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank">OnePlus Open OxygenOS 15 update now rolling out with Flux Themes, improved AI features and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank">Microsoft’s AI-powered Recall feature is now rolling out to Copilot+ PCs</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank">Jio, Airtel and Vi lost nearly 11 million subscribers in September 2024</a>

Rupee rises 7 paise to 84.22 against US dollar in early trade

<ul class="summary-list"><li>BlackRock and MSCI are facing probes by lawmakers for facilitating investments in Chinese firms, the WSJ reported. </li><li>The probes are related to investments in companies flagged by the US over security risks or human rights violations. </li></ul>BlackRock and MSCI are facing a probe from lawmakers in Congress over the asset manager and the index provider's roles in funneling American investments into shares of Chinese firms that have been flagged by the US over security concerns or human rights abuses, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackrock-msci-face-congressional-probes-for-facilitating-china-investments-2147ce2c?mod=markets_lead_pos2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday</a>. Per the Journal, the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party is seeking facts that will help determine the US's approach to China policy, including investment flows into the country.A letter sent by the committee and seen by the WSJ states that the firms are "exacerbating an already significant national-security threat and undermining American values" by helping route American investment money into Chinese companies with security and human rights risks.According to the letter, stocks in some of BlackRock's funds or MSCI's emerging markets indexes include those of companies on US "red flag lists," some of which have helped advance Chinese military interests or have been involved in abuses in the China's Xinjiang region, where most of the country's Uyghur population is located. The congressional panel said it found that American investors have funded 60 such companies and BlackRock has invested $429 million through five of its funds. In a statement to Insider, BlackRock said: "Like many global asset managers, BlackRock offers our clients a number of strategies to invest in or exclude China from their portfolios. The majority of our clients' investments in China are through index funds, and we are one of 16 asset managers currently offering US index funds investing in Chinese companies. With all investments in China and markets around the world, BlackRock complies with all applicable US government laws. We will continue engaging with the Select Committee directly on the issues raised."MSCI said it is reviewing the inquiry from the House panel on China.US-China relations are at a tense crossroads as the two superpowers trade economic blows and ratchet up military posturing. The US has throttled China's access to key chip components that it says could power military hardware, while China recently has restricted the export of many metals used in semiconductor manufacturing.

BlackRock and MSCI are facing congressional probes over facilitating investments in Chinese firms flagged by US for security concerns

<ul><li>Chances of a US debt default have more than tripled since the start of the year, according to MSCI.</li><li>MSCI said trading activity in US government credit default swaps have surged as investors buy insurance on a potentially catastrophic event.</li><li>A split Congress has just a few months to pass a spending bill to avoid the default. </li></ul>The chances of a catastrophic US debt default have more than tripled since the start of the year, according to a <a href="https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/will-the-us-government-default/03685813408" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent note</a> from <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msci-stock">MSCI</a>. The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happens-if-republicans-dont-raise-debt-ceiling-limit-crisis-2023-1">US debt ceiling was hit in mid-January</a> and since then the US Treasury has been taking extraordinary measures to avoid a default and keep the government funded until sometime in June.Now <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-economic-outlook-recession-debt-default-bank-of-america-ceo-2023-2">the clock is ticking</a> for a split Congress to come to an agreement and pass a spending bill to avoid a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-economic-outlook-recession-debt-default-bank-of-america-ceo-2023-2">default on US debt,</a> and some investors are getting uneasy based on the trading activity in credit default swaps on US government one-year debt.Credit default swaps are a form of insurance against issuers not making their scheduled payments on their debt.The trading instrument <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-scion-housing-market-bubble-gamestop-stock-2021-9">was successfully used by some investors who bet against the housing market</a> in 2008, including Michael Burry of Scion Capital. Protection payouts on the CDS are triggered when a debt payment is missed. "Implied default probabilities have increased to levels not seen since the 2013 debt-ceiling debate," MSCI said, highlighting that probabilities of a debt default have soared from 3.3% at the start of January to 11.3% as of last week.While the surge CDS spreads on US government bonds has been quick and massive, it's not unprecedented, as the CDS spreads are approaching similar levels seen <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-2013-debt-ceiling-crisis-is-scarier-than-2011-2013-10">during the 2011 and 2013 debt-ceiling showdowns.</a> During those battles, Congress reached an agreement at the last minute to avoid a default. "In the absence of legislative agreement, CDS trading volume on the U.S. government may continue to strengthen as summer approaches, and the possibility of missing payments on U.S. Treasurys looms larger," MSCI said.In the unprecedented event that the US does default on its debt, the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/seniors-risk-losing-social-security-checks-republicans-debt-ceiling-yellen-2023-2">consequences go way beyond treasury holders not receiving their payments.</a>Such a default could grind the economy to a halt and spark extreme volatility in interest rates, as much of the world's interest rate levels are in part influenced by the "risk-free" nature of US government debt. Additionally, millions of seniors would be at risk of losing their social security benefits. "Major market dislocation and a sharp slowdown in economic activity could both be realistic possibilities" in the event of a US debt default, MSCI said.

The probability of a catastrophic US debt default has more than tripled since the start of the year, MSCI says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Global shares wavered as investors mulled the chances of a supersized rate hike from the Federal Reserve.</li><li>Consumer spending data later could give a read on how resilient economic activity is.</li></ul>Global shares sagged on Friday, weighed down by the prospect that the Federal Reserve could raise rates by the most in over 30 years to counter surging <keyword id="11894140" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword>, while a downbeat read of the Chinese economy and gloomy earnings added to the pressure on investor sentiment.<keyword id="11893878" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="stocks" source="Orion">Stocks</keyword> have been battered this week by mounting evidence that inflation could damage global growth, prompting central banks to deliver supersized rate hikes to quell price pressures. China's zero-COVID policy, which has added to the pessimism, led to annual economic growth of just 0.4% year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, missing market expectations for a rise of 1.0%, and down from 4.8% growth in the first quarter.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/s&amp;p-500-futures">S&amp;P 500</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/fuures/dow-futures">Dow Jones</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/nasdaq-100-futures">Nasdaq 100</a> futures edged up around 0.2% in European trading, while the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/stoxx_europe_600">MSCI All World Index</a> eased 0.1%, heading for a 3.2% fall this week. In Europe, the <keyword id="12489913" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="stoxx-600" source="Orion">Stoxx 600</keyword> traded up 0.85%, but was on course to post a 7% drop on the week, while the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.MIAPJ0000PUS">MSCI Asia ex-Japan index</a> fell 0.9%, weighed down by losses in Chinese blue chips after Friday's dismal GDP figures.The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">dollar</a>, which has hit new 20-year highs against a basket of major currencies this month, was set for its third consecutive weekly gain, fueled by a mixture of safe-haven buying as investors fret about the prospect of recession and an expectation for juicier returns on US assets as the Fed ramps up rates.In earnings, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley kicked off results season on a glum note. Both banks missed estimates for the first time since 2020 in a sign the bumper gains from pandemic-era market activity may be drying up, and the drag of a strong <keyword id="11931694" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="dollar" source="Orion">dollar</keyword> is making itself felt."Even though the US is a more domestic focused economy and stock market, the costs of dollar strength are clear. S&amp;P 500 index earnings are being cut around 5% by current dollar strength, led by the hard-hit tech sector which generates over 60% of its sales abroad," Ben Laidler, eToro global <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword> strategist, said.Wells Fargo and Citigroup report on Friday, while Bank of America and Goldman Sachs are due next week.Data on Friday will offer a key litmus test of how the consumer is holding up in an environment where inflation is running at 41-year highs and mortgage rates have soared to their highest since 2008. Retail sales data for June is expected to show consumer spending rose by 0.9%, a reversal from May's 0.3% contraction, according to data from Bloomberg, while a read on sentiment is expected to show consumer confidence hitting another record low in early July. With inflation running at 9.1%, investors are attaching a growing chance that the Fed could raise rates by as much as a full percentage point when it meets later this month — something that hasn't happened since late 1989. Interest rate futures show a near-50% chance of such an increase, a possibility that was negligible prior to Wednesday's consumer inflation reading for June."Just as the June UMich consumer inflation survey spooked the Fed into a 75bps hike last month, traders are betting that yesterday's 9.1% CPI print will spook the Fed into another, even more supersized hike this month. Right now, that seems like a decent bet," Michael Brown, chief strategist at Caxton FX, said.Meanwhile, oil hovered below $100 a barrel, having lost 7.6% in value this week, in its fifth straight weekly decline — its longest losing streak this year. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude futures</a> were last down 0.2% at $99.16 a barrel, while <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">WTI crude</a> was down 0.3% at $95.47 a barrel. Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-at-critical-juncture-as-celsius-files-for-bankruptcy-2022-7?r=US&amp;IR=T">As Celsius files for bankruptcy and the Three Arrows unwind begins, bitcoin and the whole crypto market is at a critical juncture. 2 experts weigh-in on what's next - and reveal a key chart to watch for clues.</a>

Global shares struggle as investors weigh up chances of a mega Fed rate hike and downbeat earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11965073" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="blackrock" source="Orion">BlackRock</keyword> on Monday cut its view on <keyword id="11984417" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="chinese-stocks" source="Orion">Chinese stocks</keyword> to neutral from overweight. </li><li>Risks are rising for China over its ties to Russia during the Ukraine war, said the money manager. </li></ul>China's ties to Russia and dimming growth prospects for the world's second-largest economy prompted BlackRock to cut its view on Chinese stocks and bonds on Monday. The tactical view on Chinese stocks and debt was pulled down to neutral from slightly overweight on a six- to 12-month basis. Investment-grade credit and European government bonds were upgraded to neutral. "We see a growing geopolitical concern over Beijing's ties to Russia. This means foreign investors could face more pressure to avoid Chinese assets for regulatory or other reasons," said BlackRock.China's Foreign Ministry said last month it will <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-says-it-will-strengthen-strategic-cooperation-russia-2022-4">"strengthen strategic coordination"</a> with Russia no matter what, after Moscow has been hit with a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-traders-bankers-cope-cut-off-from-global-economy-2022-3">range of Western sanctions</a> for its invasion of Ukraine in late February.Trade between China and Russia rose roughly 30% to about $38 billion during the first quarter of 2022, according to Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng. China's exports to Russia include electronics and machinery, while Russia sells oil and other commodities to China, the world's largest oil importer. Investors have also been spooked by Beijing's crackdown on the technology sector, contributing to the <keyword id="13878360" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="msci-china" source="Orion">MSCI China</keyword> Index's 18% drop this year through the end of April."We previously kept our modest overweight on Chinese assets because we saw improved valuations making up for the risks. The rapidly worsening outlook for China's growth on widespread lockdowns to curtail a <keyword id="8764262" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="covid" source="Orion">COVID</keyword> spike has changed this," said Jean Boivin, head of BlackRock Investment Institute, in a weekly note published Monday. "China's policymakers have heralded easing to prevent a growth slowdown – but have yet to fully act."China has committed to a zero-tolerance policy in fighting this year's wave of coronavirus infections, prompting officials to impose lockdowns affecting millions of people in Shanghai and other areas including the manufacturing hub of Shenzhen. China earlier this year forecast an economic expansion of 5.5%, the lowest target since 1991. Meanwhile, yields on Chinese government bonds have fallen below those on US Treasuries, "eroding their previous appeal as a source of potential coupon income," said BlackRock.The Federal Reserve's fight against inflation has spurred the Fed to begin raising interest rates, leading to a jump in yields on US Treasury bonds. The widely watched <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years">10-year bond yield</a> has surpassed 3% for the first time since 2018.

BlackRock downgrades Chinese stocks to neutral as the world's largest asset manager sees a 'rapidly worsening' outlook for the country's economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's probability of <keyword id="12136284" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="default" source="Orion">default</keyword> is lower now at 55% from almost 80% a few weeks ago after it made some bond payments.</li><li>Investors think there is still a 50% probability of the country defaulting in the coming 12 months.</li><li>These payments are just a small part of $2.6 billion payment obligations the country has to make in the coming weeks.</li></ul>Russia just about saved itself from default after making a few key payments to bond investors in the last couple of weeks.Investors still believe there is a 50% chance of Russia defaulting in the next 12 months, even if this is down from closer to 80% recently, according to <a href="https://www.msci.com/zh/research-and-insights/russia-ukraine-war/russia-avoided-default">research from MSCI</a>.Russia made $117 million in bond <keyword id="13487387" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="interest-payments" source="Orion">interest payments</keyword> on two foreign-currency bonds on March 16. This was a small portion of the $2.6 billion in payments Russia has due in the coming weeks.Spreads of credit-default swaps (CDS) on Russian sovereign debt, which is the cost of insuring against default, have also narrowed, indicating investors believe there is less likelihood of a default than they did a month ago, <keyword id="12315035" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="msci" source="Orion">MSCI</keyword> noted.Trading in Russian debt is still suspended on most exchanges. But reported bond prices are rising, from 25% of par value a few weeks ago to above 40%, some close to maturity over 70%, as of March 21, the index provider said."Historically, such developments have indicated market optimism around the issuer's ability to service its debt. The Russian Federation, however, still has some major hurdles to clear," MSCI said.The largest amount of its unpaid debt obligations is $2 billion in principal on a bond due on 4 April.There has been significant uncertainty concerning Russia's ability to meet its payment obligations after Western nations effectively cut the country off from the international financial system following the invasion of Ukraine.All three major <keyword id="11960630" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="credit-rating" source="Orion">credit rating</keyword> agencies have <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-ukraine-sp-cut-debt-default-junk-credit-rating-junk-2022-3">slashed Russia's credit rating</a> several times, leaving it deep in junk territory, since the invasion on February 24. "At this point, we consider that Russia's debt is highly vulnerable to nonpayment," <a href="https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/2810973">S&amp;P Global said in a recent statement</a>. Tough Western sanctions on Russia in response to its war with Ukraine have cut off Russia's access to the global financial system and restricted access to its foreign reserves, threatening to wreck its economy.

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Rupee rises 7 paise to 84.22 against US dollar in early trade

PTI

BlackRock and MSCI are facing congressional probes over facilitating investments in Chinese firms flagged by US for security concerns

Max Adams

The probability of a catastrophic US debt default has more than tripled since the start of the year, MSCI says

Matthew Fox

Global shares struggle as investors weigh up chances of a mega Fed rate hike and downbeat earnings

Amanda Cooper

BlackRock downgrades Chinese stocks to neutral as the world's largest asset manager sees a 'rapidly worsening' outlook for the country's economy

Carla Mozée

Russia just narrowly avoided a huge default, but investors still think there's a 50/50 chance of it happening in the next 12 months

Hamza Fareed Malik

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