<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP Images</div></div></div><ul><li><a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/hog-stock">Harley-Davidson</a> said Monday it will move the manufacturing of motorcycles bound for Europe outside of the US to avoid new tariffs placed by the European Union.</li><li>The new tariffs on manufactured goods were placed by the EU in response to President Donald Trump's taxes on imported steel and aluminum.</li><li>Harley-Davidson's stock price sank as much as 2.6% after Trump berated the company on Twitter.</li><li><a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/hog-stock">Follow HD stock price in real-time here.</a></li></ul><a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/hog-stock">Harley-Davidson</a> sank as much as 2.6% Tuesday after President Donald Trump derided the motorcycle maker over its decision to move some assembly work overseas in response to new retaliatory tariffs from the European Union."A Harley-Davidson should never be built in another country-never!" Trump <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1011584315040419840">tweeted early Tuesday morning </a>following up on a string of tweets about tariffs and trade wars. "Their employees and customers are already very angry at them. If they move, watch, it will be the beginning of the end - they surrendered, they quit!. The Aura will be gone and they will be taxed like never before!"On Monday, Harley-Davidson said it "will be implementing a plan to shift production of motorcycles for EU destinations from the US to international facilities." The move comes just as the European Union placed tariffs on certain manufactured goods - including motorcycles - in response to new US taxes on imported metal.Harley said the European tariffs will have an annual impact of $90 million to $100 million going forward, adding about $2,200 to the cost of each motorcycle, which the company will swallow rather than pass on to consumers. "Harley-Davidson believes the tremendous cost increase, if passed onto its dealers and retail customers, would have an immediate and lasting detrimental impact to its business in the region, reducing customer access to Harley-Davidson products and negatively impacting the sustainability of its dealers' businesses." the company<a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793952/000079395218000038/a8-kitem701tariffdisclosur.htm"> said in a regulatory filing</a> Tuesday."Therefore, Harley-Davidson will not raise its manufacturer's suggested retail prices or wholesale prices to its dealers to cover the costs of the retaliatory tariffs. In the near-term, the company will bear the significant impact resulting from these tariffs."Trump went on to threaten the company with high taxes in retaliation for moving manufacturing jobs overseas."Early this year Harley-Davidson said they would move much of their plant operations in Kansas City to Thailand," Trump <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1011568906992017408">tweeted</a>."That was long before Tariffs were announced," he said in a <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1011574256117993472">separate tweet</a>. "Hence, they were just using Tariffs/Trade War as an excuse. Shows how unbalanced &amp; unfair trade is…Harley must know that they won't be able to sell back into U.S. without paying a big tax!"Harley-Davidson has fallen 20% this year.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/hog-stock"></a><a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/hog-stock">Markets Insider</a></div></div></div> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-this-couple-saved-enough-to-pay-for-wedding-2018-6">How this couple saved enough to pay for their own wedding while living in New York City</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

Harley-Davidson slumps after Trump attacks the company for moving jobs overseas

New Delhi, Dec 10 () Domestic passenger vehicle sales slipped into negative territory once again in November after registering a slight recovery in the preceding month, as muted demand conditions forced companies to reduce their dispatches to dealers.
 According to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), passenger vehicle (PV) sales declined 0.84 per cent to 2,63,773 units in November from 2,66,000 units in the year-ago period.
 The PV sales figure would have been much lower during the period under consideration, if it had not been aided by the utility vehicle segment, which saw despatches grow by 32.7 per cent to 92,739 units in November as compared with 69,884 units a year-ago.
 Domestic car sales were down 10.83 per cent to 1,60,306 units as against 1,79,783 units in the year-ago period while van sales were down 34.32 per cent to 10,728 units as compared to 16,333 in November 2018.
 "Challenges continue in the passenger vehicle segment. we have to remember that the current numbers are on a comparatively low base of last November," SIAM Director General Rajesh Menon told reporters here.
 New launches in the utility vehicle segment has helped prop up sales in October and November, he added.
 PV sales had risen marginally in October aided by positive festive season sentiment and introduction of new models in utility vehicle space, just about managing to snap 11 continuous months of decline in sales.
 However, vehicle sales across categories remained in the negative territory for over a year now.
 Menon said, sales in PV sector would in all probability continue in the slow lane during the remaining months of the ongoing fiscal.
 He added that SIAM was in talks with the government to introduce BS-VI fuel across the country from February itself in order to push the sales of BS-VI emission norms compliant models.
 As of now the government has kept April 1, 2020 as the date of introducing upgraded fuel across the country. The BS-VI fuel is available currently in only the NCR region.
 Total two-wheeler sales in November fell 14.27 per cent to 14,10,939 units compared to 16,45,783 units in the year-ago month. Motorcycle sales last month were down 14.87 per cent to 8,93,538 units as against 10,49,651 units a year earlier.
 Similarly, scooter sales last month declined 11.83 per cent to 4,59,851 units as compared with 5,21,542 units in November 2018.
 Commercial vehicle sales were down 14.98 per cent to 61,907 units in November, SIAM said.
 "It is worrisome that commercial vehicles and two wheelers sales continue to be in the negative zone. Commercial vehicle segment continue to suffer because of low demand in the infrastructure sector while two wheeler sales remain muted due to low demand in the rural areas," Menon said.
 In the PV segment, Maruti Suzuki India reported a 3.31 per cent decline in its November sales at 1,39,133 units. Hyundai Motor India witnessed a 2.04 per cent increase at 44,600 units, while Mahindra &amp; Mahindra reported a fall of 9.62 per cent to 14,633 units during the month.
 In the two-wheeler category, Hero MotoCorp posted a 15.81 per cent drop in sales at 5,05,994 units, while rival Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India saw sales decline by 5.32 per cent to 3,73,283 units.
 Similarly, Chennai-based TVS Motor Company saw its sales slump by 26.52 per cent to 1,91,222 units in November.
 In November, vehicle wholesales across categories registered a decline of 12.05 per cent to 17,92,415 units from 20,38,007 units in November 2018.
 On the other hand, November retail sales data showed a somewhat better picture in terms of sales, pointing to inventory correction taking place in the industry.
 Overall retail sales increased by 4.76 per cent to 22,13,519 units as compared with 21,12,876 units in the year-ago period.
 Similarly, PV retail sales stood at 3,13,061 units last month, as against 2,94,649 units in the same month last year, an increase of 6.25 per cent.
 Two-wheeler retail sales were up by 4.6 per cent at 17,52,903 units as against 16,75,761 units in November 2018. MSS DRR

Passenger vehicle sales slip again into negative territory in November

New Delhi, Jan 10 () The automobile industry recorded its worst-ever sales decline in two decades in 2019, with an unprecedented slowdown hampering vehicle offtake across segments, according to industry body SIAM.
 As per data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) on Friday, all vehicle segments reported de-growth last year as low consumer sentiments, weak rural demand and economic slowdown took toll on demand.
 Overall wholesale of vehicles during the year across categories, including passenger vehicles, two-wheelers and commercial vehicles, saw a decline of 13.77 per cent in 2019 at 2,30,73,438 units as against 2,67,58,787 units in 2018.
 This is the worst fall in sales since the industry body started recording monthly and yearly sales data in 1997. The previous lowest was recorded in 2007 when overall sales had declined by 1.44 per cent.
 Similarly, total passenger vehicle sales during 2019 declined by 12.75 per cent to 29,62,052 units as compared with 33,94,790 units a year ago. This is the worst performance in the segment since 2013 when sales witnessed a dip of 7.49 per cent.
 Two-wheeler sales also saw a dip of 14.19 per cent last year to 1,85,68,280 units as compared with 2,16,40,033 units in 2018. Likewise, total commercial vehicles saw a dip of 14.99 per cent to 8,54,759 units as against 10,05,502 units in 2018.
 "Challenges remain for the auto industry despite the government bringing in several growth enablers. GDP growth rate remains an area of worry as commercial vehicle segment is clearly linked to it. Besides, low demand from rural areas continues to be a matter of concern," SIAM President Rajan Wadhera told reporters here.
 In passenger vehicles, utility vehicles are driving sales as other segments are not performing that well, he added.
 When asked about the 2020 outlook, Wadhera said the situation is going to remain tough due to impending changeover to the BS-VI emission regime.
 "We expect prices of commercial vehicles to go up by 8-10 per cent due to BS-VI norms and it is going to impact demand. But, if economic growth is there, this factor would not be such a sore point," Wadhera said.
 Similarly, passenger vehicles would see cost increase in range of 3-7 per cent, which would also act as an dampener for sales growth, he said.
 "So, growth in the segment is expected to remain flat. In two-wheelers, low demand from rural areas continues and challenges are expected to remain going ahead as well," Wadhera said.
 He further said if the economy grows at around 6-7 per cent, the auto sector could see a return to growth rates witnessed four quarters ago.
 When asked if job losses witnessed in various industrial sectors, such as auto and telecom, have had an impact on demand slump, Wadhera said, "Yes."
 The auto industry body also said the positive sentiment that was witnessed during the festive season has not sustained with retail sales in December coming back to negative.
 Commenting on the industry's Budget expectations, he reminded of the long-standing demand of reducing GST rate to 18 per cent and introduction of scrappage policy to spur demand.
 In December, domestic passenger vehicle sales declined 1.24 per cent to 2,35,786 units in December from 2,38,753 units in the year-ago period.
 Domestic car sales were down 8.4 per cent to 1,42,126 units as against 1,55,159 units in December 2018, according to SIAM.
 Market leader Maruti Suzuki India posted a growth of 2.49 per cent in its passenger vehicle sales in December at 1,22,784 units. Hyundai Motor India saw a decline of 9.84 per cent at 37,953 units, while Mahindra &amp; Mahindra posted a growth of 3.94 per cent at 15,686 units.
 Motorcycle sales last month declined 12.01 per cent to 6,97,819 units as against 7,93,042 units a year earlier. Total two-wheeler sales in December declined 16.6 per cent to 10,50,038 units compared to 12,59,007 units in the year-ago month.
 In two-wheeler segment, Hero MotoCorp posted a decline of 5.63 per cent at 4,12,009 units in December. Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India (HMSI) saw its sales drop by 2.26 per cent at 2,30,197 units, while TVS Motor Co witnessed a decline of 25.09 per cent at 1,57,244 units.
 Sales of commercial vehicles were down 12.32 per cent to 66,622 units in December, SIAM data showed.
 Vehicle sales across categories registered a decline of 13.08 per cent to 14,05,776 units from 16,17,398 units in December 2018, it added.
 On the other hand, overall retail sales stood at 16,49,954 units in December, down 14.26 per cent from 19,24,297 units in 2018. MSS RKL MSS HRS

2019 witnesses worst-ever decline in auto sales: SIAM

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">AP/Luca BrunoRiders perform during a freestyle motocross show at the EICMA exhibition motorcycle fair in Milan, Italy.</div></div></div>Here is what you need to know.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-statement-on-interest-rates-november-2018-2018-11">The Fed holds, expects to keep hiking rates gradually</a>. The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate in a range between 2% and 2.25% at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Thursday, and signaled it would continue raising rates gradually amid stable economic growth. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/soybean-inventories-pile-up-amid-us-china-trade-battle-2018-11-1027708662">Soybean inventories pile up amid US-China trade battle</a>. The Department of Agriculture on Thursday lowered its projections for soybean exports by 160 million bushels to 1.9 billion for the 2018-2019 marketing year as China has turned to South America and elsewhere for the legume during its trade war with the US. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sharpe-ratio-reversal-impact-on-asset-allocation-jpmorgan-asset-management-2018-11">A closely watched measure of market risk has reversed course for the first time since the financial crisis</a>. The Sharpe ratio, which is used to evaluate the return of an asset compared to its level of risk, has flipped "conclusively" and strategists John Bilton and Karen Ward of JPMorgan Asset Management explain how it's a massive opportunity for investors.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-goldman-sachs-ceo-blankfein-attended-meeting-at-center-of-malaysian-scandal-2018-11">Goldman Sachs'</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-goldman-sachs-ceo-blankfein-attended-meeting-at-center-of-malaysian-scandal-2018-11"> former CEO attended a meeting at the center of the $6.5 billion Malaysian wealth fund scandal</a>. The former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein was present at a meeting that helped set up the $6.5 billion 1MDB Malaysian sovereign wealth fund that is now the subject of a global corruption probe, Bloomberg says. There is no evidence Blankfein knew that the Malaysian businessman Jho Low, who has been implicated in a money laundering scandal tied to the fund, would be attending the meeting.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/r-disney-beats-profit-revenue-estimates-as-consumers-flock-to-parks-movies-2018-11">Disney beats</a>. The entertainment giant beat on profit and revenue as it saw success from its Marvel sequel "Ant Man and the Wasp" and as more visitors went to its parks, Reuters says. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/995-billion-dropbox-beats-wall-street-expectations-months-after-ipo-2018-11?r=UK&amp;IR=T">Dropbox's guidance tops estimates</a>. The file-hosting company reported third-quarter results that beat on both the top and bottom lines and gave Q4 revenue guidance of $367 million to $370 million that was ahead of the $363.7 million that analysts were expecting. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/an-american-finally-has-a-shot-at-winning-the-world-chess-championship-for-the-first-time-since-bobby-fischer-in-1972-2018-11?r=UK&amp;IR=T">An American has a shot at winning the World Chess Championship</a>. The 26-year-old Fabiano Caruana will face three-time champion Magnus Carlsen of Norway as he attempts to become the first American to since Bobby Fischer in 1972 to win the World Chess Championship.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/indices">Stock markets around the world are in the red</a>. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-2.39%) led the losses in Asia and Britain's FTSE (-0.67%) trails in Europe. The S&amp;P 500 is set to open down 0.55% near 2,791.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar#date=11/09/2018&amp;name=&amp;countries=&amp;eventtypes=99&amp;tab=ALL">Earnings reporting slows down</a>. Athenahealth reports after markets close.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=11/09/2018&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3">US economic data keeps coming</a>. PPI will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET while wholesale inventories and University of Michigan consumer confidence cross the wires at 10 a.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is down 3 basis points at 2.31%. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happens-when-you-dont-get-enough-sleep-2017-12">A sleep expert explains what happens to your body and brain if you don't get enough sleep</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

10 things you need to know before the opening bell

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Kevin Lamarque / REUTERSFlanked by Secretary of Defense Mark Esper (L) and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Army Gen. Mark Milley, U.S. President Donald Trump meets with senior military leaders at the White House in Washington, U.S., October 7, 2019.</div></div></div><ul class="summary-list"><li>For months, President Trump has expressed interest in pardoning convicted or accused war criminals. But Defense Secretary Mark Esper, among other Pentagon officials, has attempted to steer Trump away from doing so. </li><li>"I do have full confidence in the military justice system," Esper said, acknowledging that he had spoken to the president about the cases.</li><li>Should Trump decide to interfere, it could have major consequences for the military, from undermining the command system to hindering US troops' ability to operate in other countries. </li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/">Visit Business Insider's home page for more stories. </a></li></ul>President Donald Trump is expected to grant clemency in the cases of three military members accused or convicted of war crimes, but <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-urging-trump-to-butt-out-of-war-crimes-cases-2019-11">military officials fear</a> and experts warn that his actions could undermine the military justice system.The president is the commander in chief, and ultimately the decision about whether to grant clemency - to pardon, shorten the sentence of, or clear charges against - <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/maj-mathew-golsteyns-lawyer-said-trump-toss-war-crimes-case-2019-11">Green Beret Maj. Mathew Golsteyn</a>, Army 1st Lt. Clint Lorance, and SEAL <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-pardon-seal-eddie-gallagher-posed-with-dead-isis-fighter-2019-11">Eddie Gallagher</a> rests with him. All three were accused of war crimes; Gallagher was acquitted of murdering a young ISIS fighter and shooting at Iraqi civilians; Lorance was convicted of ordering his troops to fire at three unarmed Afghan men on a motorcycle, killing two; and Golsteyn awaits trial for allegedly killing an unarmed man in Afghanistan and burning his body.Golsteyn maintains the person he killed was a member of the Taliban and would have harmed a tribal leader should he have been released; Lorance's defense introduced evidence that the men his team fired on were connected with the Taliban; and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/navy-seal-eddie-gallagher-rank-reduction-posing-isis-fighter-body-2019-7">Gallagher</a> was acquitted on all counts except posing for a photo with the corpse of the ISIS fighter after the prosecution's case against him fell apart. Intervening in a case pre-trial is exceedingly rare but the president likely has the power to do so; Trump has shown sympathy for these kinds of cases, saying: "We train our boys to be killing machines, then prosecute them when they kill!"Three US officials told <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2019/11/14/white-house-pentagon-prepare-trump-issue-pardons-war-crimes-cases-officials-say/">Washington Post</a> reporters Dan Lamothe and Josh Dawsey that the Pentagon and the White House were in discussions regarding the three servicemembers, and that the president could act to intervene any day, although the details of how he would do so and exactly what actions he would take are not clear.Pentagon officials are concerned that Trump's intervention undermines the perception that the US military prosecute criminal acts to the fullest extent of the law, and that countries abroad where troops are based can have confidence that crimes troops commit there will be punished. According to the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/14/us/politics/trump-military.html">New York Times</a>, both <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/secdef-mark-esper-tiny-horse-trip-to-mongolia-2019-8">Secretary of Defense Mark Esper</a> and Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy have impressed upon the president the gravity of overriding the Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ) and requested he not interfere in the cases. Esper has publicly said that he believes in the process of the UCMJ. "I do have full confidence in the military justice system," he said.While the military has its own justice system, it is independent like the civilian justice system in principle. Particularly in Golsteyn's case, Trump's interference would mean that Golsteyn never faces the UCMJ at all. If Trump had the same jurisdiction over the civilian justice system, he could feasibly quash cases he disagreed with or that involve him, interfering with US attorneys' or district attorneys' ability to bring charges without political influence.It could also affect status of forces agreements - the agreements between the US and foreign nations that host US troops which, among other things, assure host countries that US troops who commit crimes on their soil will be tried under the UCMJ. But if the president, or anyone in the chain of command, were to simply start dismissing the cases, those agreements - which are already somewhat <a href="https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2019/09/17/troops-in-south-korea-have-90-more-days-of-curfew-suspension/">contentious </a>for some host countries - would become much more complicated. "Absent evidence of innocence or injustice the wholesale pardon of US servicemembers accused of war crimes signals our troops and allies that we don't take the Law of Armed Conflict seriously. Bad message. Bad precedent. Abdication of moral responsibility. Risk to us," retired Gen. <a href="https://twitter.com/Martin_Dempsey/status/1130809276191035392">Martin Dempsey</a>, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, tweeted in May.Dempsey's tweet raises concerns that Trump's action will make it harder for the military to ensure its troops follow the rules even under the duress of combat, an issue which Rep. Ted Lieu also discussed."As a former active duty [judge advocate general], I know the main purpose of the [Uniform Code of Military Justice] is to impose good order &amp; discipline, which [President George] Washington called the soul of an army," Rep. Ted <a href="https://www.stripes.com/pardons-for-war-crimes-could-harm-commanders-influence-former-military-lawyers-warn-1.582277">Lieu</a>, a Democrat from California, <a href="https://twitter.com/tedlieu/status/1130156604207222784">tweeted in May</a>. "[Trump] should not circumvent the court-martial process. Let military jurors decide."Trump's actions could give some troops the perceived authority to act illegally and unethically, and prevent whistleblowers from coming forward to report that behavior. Pardons or other interference could also deteriorate command influence; in all cases, the men Trump may grant clemency to were accused of heinous crimes committed under their own influence, not ordered by a superior. Pardoning those who may have committed egregious crimes - indeed, Lorance was found guilty of doing so - could impact the influence of commanders over their troops. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/singles-day-alibaba-25-billion-largest-shopping-holiday-2018-11">How Alibaba turned a fake holiday into a $25 billion shopping extravaganza that's bigger than Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

Military leaders are worried that Trump pardoning troops accused of war crimes will impair the justice system and undermine overseas bases

The gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the three-month period of October to December 2018, came in today (Feb 28, 2019). The Indian GDP grew by 6.6%, the slowest in five quarters. In fact, even a growth of 6.6% seems to be on the optimistic side, given that this is not in line with the underlying economic fundamentals, which can be measured through high-frequency economic indicators like car sales, two-wheeler sales, tourist arrivals, railway freight movement, etc. Let’s try and get some sense of what the economic indicators looked like in the three month period between October to December 2018. In this piece, the yearly growth of 15 high frequency economic indicators has been looked at. These indicators include (and as can be seen from the accompanying table, which is in two parts) indicators like car sales, two-wheeler sales, commercial vehicle sales, non-oil exports, non-oil non-gold non-silver imports, revenue earning rail freight, among others. The performance of 11 out of the 15 economic indicators was much better during the period October to December 2017 than it was in October to December 2018. This basically means that the yearly growth of most economic indicators was better during the same period. In simple English, what this means is that the <keyword id="6356076" type="DEFINITION" weightage="20" keywordseo="indian-economy">Indian economy</keyword> has slowed down during the last quarter. Will this reflect in the government GDP numbers? That is something we will come to know later this week. These indicators are real time economic indicators and not a theoretical construct like the GDP number. Also, in a scenario where India grew by 8.2% during 2016-2017, the year of demonetisation, it makes more sense to trust real time economic indicators more than the GDP number declared by the government. Let’s take a closer look at some of these indicators. Take car sales, the most cited indicator among these indicators. During the period October to December 2018, car sales fell by 0.79% in comparison to October to December 2017. In fact, car sales had fallen by 2.42% during July to September 2018. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 Why are car sales important? That’s because they have been an important indicator of how urban India is feeling about its economic prospects. At the end of the day, no one is forcing an individual to buy a car. She buys a car only when she feels that she is in a position to service the EMI on the car loan taken to buy the car or make a down-payment. The fact that car sales have been falling tells us that urban India isn’t really feeling strong about its future economic prospects. Car sales also have very strong forward and backward linkages. When cars sell well, there is greater demand for steel, rubber, paint, glass, batteries etc. These are the backward linkages. A whole host of sectors do well, when cars sell well. The vice versa is also true. As far as forward linkages of car sales are concerned, a growth in car sales leads to an increase demand for loans, servicing centres as well as energy consumption. As we can see from the accompanying table, consumption of petroleum products went up by just 2.21% during the period October to December 2018, in comparison to a year earlier. This is again a clear impact of slowdown in car sales. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 Other than cars, a slowdown in scooter sales between July and December 2018, also tells us that urban India is not feeling too comfortable about its economic prospects. While scooter sales growth remained slow, the motorcycle sales growth seems to be on a recovery path. Between October and December 2018, it grew by 11.11%. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 This along with the fact that tractor sales during the same period grew by 22.24%, tells us that the rich part of rural India is feeling economically confident. The same cannot be said the agriculture sector as a whole, with fertilizer production falling 9.1% during the period. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 As far as consumer demand is concerned, non-oil non-gold non-silver imports, which are a very good indicator of consumer demand, grew by just 0.35% between October and December 2018. Tourist arrivals also grew by just 1.73%, in comparison to 14.81% a year earlier, which will act as a dampener on consumer demand. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 The production of steel grew by 4.64% during the period. A slowdown in car sales as well as a real estate sector which hasn’t gone anywhere in many years, went against the sector. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 What helped is the healthy pace of road construction. Between April and November 2018, 5,579 kilometres of highways were constructed, against 4,942 kilometres, during the same period in 2017. Road building also gave a fillip to cement production, which jumped by 13.33%. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 Exports remained weak during the period. Non-oil exports, which tend to benefit a large number of companies in comparison to oil exports, where the benefits are concentrated, grew by just 1.19%. Revenue earning rail freight saw a slight improvement in growth at 5.92%. Commercial vehicle sales grew by 6.7%, the slowest in six quarters. A fast growth in commercial sales indicates a robust activity on the infrastructure and industrial front. This is seen as a lead economic indicator of industrial as well as infrastructure activity. This is also borne out by data from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. During October to December 2018, the new projects fell by 24.14%. Completed projects fell by 8.35% and the stalled projects went up by 246.89%. All this comes together in the form of a major slowdown in central government revenue receipts, which grew by just 0.48% during the period, with the government also feeling the heat of the economic slowdown. All these economic indicators come together to tell us that the Indian economy has slowed down during the period October to December 2018. Whether this is captured in the GDP data which will be released on February 28, remains to be seen. In this scenario, even an economic growth of 6.6% doesn’t seem believable. In the recent past, the Indian GDP data has become more or less a joke. Let’s see if that continues or things do improve on that front. Vivek Kaul is a Business Insider India contributor. Kaul is an economist and the author of the ‘Easy Money’ trilogy. See also: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india-corporate-earnings-will-slow-down-affecting-stock-prices/articleshow/68060649.cms">Indian companies have two tough years ahead — are the markets prepared?</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/indias-wholesale-inflation-cools-to-2-7-in-january/articleshow/67992193.cms">India's wholesale inflation cools to 2.7% in January</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/indias-government-wants-you-to-believe-that-demonetisation-didnt-slow-down-the-economy/articleshow/67785050.cms">India’s government wants you to believe that demonetisation didn’t slow down the economy</a>

Why even an economic growth of 6.6% is not believable

<div style="padding: 15px; border: 1px solid #999999; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 15px!important; line-height: 25px; overflow: auto; vertical-align: middle;">This is part of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/monday-scouting-report">"Monday Scouting Report,"</a> a weekly look at the stories and issues affecting mid-market businesses. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/monday-scouting-report">"Monday Scouting Report"</a> is sponsored by GE Capital. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/monday-scouting-report" target="_blank">Get more »</a></div><div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image">REUTERS/Ricardo MoraesA man rides his motorcycle along a street decorated in celebration of the upcoming World Cup in Rio de Janeiro </div></div>It's a fairly quiet week in the U.S.. On Friday, we saw the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/may-jobs-report-2014-6">U.S. economy added</a> 217,000 nonfarm payrolls in May, while the unemployment rate held steady at 6.3%.
All eyes will now turn to the retail sales report for confirmation of an economic snapback.
We also have three Fed speeches on Monday. St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard will speak on the economy and monetary policy in Florida.
Boston Federal president, Eric Rosengreen, is slated to speak on monetary policy in Guatemala.
Finally, Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo will speak on corporate governance in Washington.
Here's your Monday Scouting Report:
Top Story
<ul>
<li>Winter Weakness: Following the modest beat in the May jobs report, Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics wrote that those who attributed the economic weakness in the first quarter to the unusually harsh winter, have won the argument. "The robust 217,000 increase in non-far payrolls in May is another illustration that the economy is back on the right track after the weather-related weakness during the winter," Ashworth wrote. "May's gain followed an even stronger 282,000 increase in April, although we suspect that the latter was boosted a little by the unwinding of the earlier weather distortion." </li>
<li>Rise Of Investor Complacency: Despite the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mario-draghi-stops-shy-of-the-bazooka-2014-6">European Central Bank's move</a> to push rates into negative territory on Thursday, investors were disappointed. "Markets expect a lot from central banks these days, and despite a comprehensive set of measures from Mr. Draghi, traders sniffed at the absence of QE," writes Claus Vistesen at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "Such over-expectancy on the part of investors is a sign of complacency." Vistesen writes that talk of a 'great moderation' has returned as low volatility has raised hopes of "a return to bull markets and rapid growth."</li>
<li>The Changing Face Of The FOMC: All eyes are now on the three new members voting at the June FOMC meeting. "This change-over will add some uncertainty to the policy debate and the distribution of the June 'dot plot,' writes Michael Hanson at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The dot plot refers to the chart that shows the predicted path of the federal funds rate. "…However, we don't expect these current or potential future personnel changes to fundamentally alter the majority support for a gradual exit with rates below their historical average for some time."</li>
</ul>
Economic Calendar 
<ul>
<li>Treasury budget (Wed): Economists are looking for a $130 billion deficit in May. This compared to a $106.9 billion surplus in April.</li>
<li>Initial Jobless Claims (Thurs): Economists expect initial claims fell to 309,000, from 312,000 in the May 31 week. "It appears that the extended period of extreme week-to-week volatility may be over," write economists at Citi. "Importantly, the four-week moving average is settling into a new lower range after several months near 320K."</li>
<li>Retail sales (Thurs): Economists estimate that retail sales will rise 0.6% month-over-month in May, compared to a 0.1% rise the previous month. Meanwhile, core retail sales (ex-auto and gas) are expected to rise 0.4% MoM, following a 0.1% fall in April. "Higher spending on general merchandise and higher cost on health insurance due to the Affordable Care Act are likely to be key sources of the gain in this month," according to the economists at TD Securities. "We expect this report to reinforce the current constructive narrative on the economic recovery, pointing to further positive momentum in household spending-consistent with the rebound seen in household sentiment and labor market activity in recent months."</li>
<li>Business inventories (Thurs): Economists expect business inventories to climb 0.4% on the month in April, following a 0.4% rise in March. "Manufacturers' inventories have already been reported as rising, but the recent surprisingly strong import growth suggests larger increases for retail and wholesale inventories," write economists at Citi. "Note: The large import surge in April suggests that retailers and wholesalers believed that consumer demand would pick up sharply after being cooled by the weather all winter."</li>
<li>PPI (Fri): Economists are looking for produce prices to rise 0.1% on the month in May, compared with a 0.6% rise in April. Meanwhile, core producer prices (ex-food and energy) 0.1% on the month, compared to a 0.5% rise the previous month.</li>
<li>Consumer sentiment (Fri): Economists are looking for University of Michigan consumer confidence to rise to 83 in June, from 81.9 the previous month. "Underlying our forecast are equity markets, which have moved higher and experienced reduced volatility relative to May, as well as initial jobless claims, which have been grinding lower in recent weeks," write Barclays economists.</li>
</ul>
Market Commentary
U.S. stocks ended higher with the Dow and S&amp;P 500 hitting new record highs on Friday. "In line with the recent trend, this week's push higher lacked a specific catalyst. However, while the macro narrative remained little changed, there were several positive dynamics at work," according to the <a href="http://www.factset.com/insight/2014/6/sa_weekly_recap_6.6.14?referrer=E-mail&amp;email=mbadkar@businessinsider.com&amp;domain=economics#.U5TiYC_cXTQ">folks at FactSet</a>.
One of those would be the European Central Bank's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mario-draghi-stops-shy-of-the-bazooka-2014-6">historic rate cut</a>, which made it the first major central bank to push rates into negative territory. The ECB also announced a string of easing measures. 
"While there were no meaningful surprises out of this week's sell-side conferences, there seemed to be more focus on the pickup in earnings growth coming out of Q1. Strategists also continued to highlight improved earnings revision trends," according to FactSet.
Meanwhile, Brian Belski at BMO Capital Markets writes that falling rates are not signaling a weaker economy. "The recent divergence between Treasury yields and stock prices has some investors nervous based on our client conversations," writes Belski. "The predominant line of thinking is that lower rates portend softer economic growth. However, we believe these investors may be over-emphasizing the significance of the recent decoupling."
"Based on our work, periods of interest rate and stock price decoupling are fairly common and most of the time stocks "get it right." In addition, the recent drop in rates appears to be more technical in nature from our lens given that trends in important economic indicators have improved significantly since the start of the year."
For more insight about the middle market, visit <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v1/url?u=http://mid-marketpulse.com&amp;k=S62Tl7vLGjW6AAK5ZFwEoQ%3D%3D%0A&amp;r=%2B2sEypbBAnV2mc5PLhBR08ZBMT%2BquZZGjxd0T7NNaP4%3D%0A&amp;m=UtLLChRIkxZLioNs9a5IxKFS7RONkU%2FjCuvoQ68P2Hw%3D%0A&amp;s=28acf971eb6ce00a636a9e28c206665a00dc8a6b849c5fbdd6236e929e9008ce" target="_blank">mid-marketpulse.com</a>.

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