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India's investment ecosystem is undergoing a seismic shift, with index investing gaining unprecedented traction among investors, according to a report by Motilal Oswal. The younger generation, including Gen Z and Millennials, shows a stronger inclination towards index funds as compared to older investors. They also prefer index funds over ETFs for better returns and liquidity. A recent report by Axis AMC also highlighted the growing appetite for ETFs, which witnessed net sales of Rs 15,403 crore in October 2024. While 46% of younger investors favor index funds, only 35% of Gen X and Boomers do so. Millennials and Gen X investors also have a keen interest in factor or smart beta funds, reflecting their appetite for innovative, albeit aggressive investment strategies. Passive funds have become a core component of investor portfolios, with 80% of investors increasing their allocation to these funds in 2024, compared to 53% last year. The Axis report echoed similar sentiments, noting that net sales in the passive category inched up to Rs 8,025 crore in October 2024. The combined assets under management (AUM) of passive funds have surged from Rs 7 lakh crore in September 2023 to over Rs 11 lakh crore by September 2024—a 1.5x growth in just one year. The survey also noted a growing popularity of ETFs, with 57% of respondents investing in them, up from 41% in 2023. Of these, 26% invest solely in ETFs, while 31% have diversified between ETFs and index funds. This rising preference is matched by a commitment to long-term investment. A significant 81% of investors plan to hold their passive investments for over three years, highlighting sustained confidence in the growth potential of these funds. Sectoral indices like Nifty IT and Nifty Bank dominate as the top choice for passive fund investors, selected by 67% of respondents. Benchmark indices such as the Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 follow closely, preferred by 61% of investors. A recent, similar report by stock broker Angel One also throws a spotlight on how young India plans and prefers mutual funds when it comes to savings and investments. The report, titled "Young Indians' Saving Habits Outlook 2024," compiled by Fin One, stated that 45% of respondents aged 22-35 have made it a point to save up some of their savings in mutual funds. A year ago, this figure stood at just 32%. Most of these investors make their way into mutual funds via SIPs, or systematic investment plans. 52% of respondents in the age cohort of 22-35 are now using SIPs to invest in mutual funds, up from 44% in the previous year. As for what was the driving factor behind beginning their investment journey, 42% underlined the past performance of funds, while 38% noted that advice from financial advisors remained a key consideration. 38% of young Indians are now increasingly focusing on building an emergency corpus, compared to 28% the year before. This shift underscores the drastic change in financial sensibilities brought forth by the pandemic and the consequent desire for greater financial resilience. In fact, approximately 4 out of every 5 surveyed investors maintained a dedicated, separate savings account. Out of the 1,650 individuals studied under the FinOne survey, a staggering majority made their first foray into the stock market in their early twenties. Nearly 2 in every 5 investors pick stock as their preferred choice of investment, followed by mutual funds and then savings bank accounts. While 45% of those surveyed picked stocks as their chosen investment avenue, 20% preferred mutual funds, and 15% wanted to keep their money in a savings bank account.

Gen Z and Millennials prefer stocks and mutual funds; index funds trump over ETFs, say recent reports

With uncertainties in the world - economics and geopolitics - investors having medium to long-term outlooks can have <keyword id="18712" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gold" source="Orion">gold</keyword> and silver in their portfolio, said <keyword id="46252" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="motilal-oswal" source="Orion">Motilal Oswal</keyword> Financial Services Ltd. A 20 per cent allocation to gold exchange-traded funds (ETF) in an investment portfolio during Diwali is ideal, said <keyword id="594214" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="quantum-amc" source="Orion">Quantum AMC</keyword>. Geopolitics, the Central bank's action and inflationary concerns are themes that are not only driving precious metals but also triggering volatility in other asset classes, said Motilal Oswal in a report. The <keyword id="6356435" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="us-federal-reserve" source="Orion">US Federal Reserve</keyword> is rushing to raise interest rates at an aggressive pace with an objective to tame inflation. On the other hand, geo-political tensions between Russia-Ukraine and other economies continue to increase distress in the economy. All this is raising questions regarding the pace of global growth, institutions like IMF have also lowered their projections on the same. Pointing out India as one of the largest consumers of gold and silver, Motilal Oswal said there has been a lot of development, especially on the domestic front which is supporting prices. "Government initiatives like setting up GIFT city, signing an FTA (free trade agreement) between <keyword id="6358356" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="uae" source="Orion">UAE</keyword> and India, (implies that about 200 tonnes of gold will be imported from UAE at 1 per cent tariff rate quota-TRQ) and changes in import duty," the company said. This year macro factors will have an upper hand over the move in metal prices, as a tighter monetary policy scenario is not a great phase for non-yielding asset gold, the report said. The gold price trend is caught between the tussle of bulls and bears. Extreme negatives do trigger bargain buying for gold and so it is important for medium to long-term investors to see a broader picture, Motilal Oswal said. Except for a few dips, the overall trend for gold has remained positive, and the returns also are quite decent, the company added. The company has suggested accumulation of gold at Rs 46,800-Rs 47,500 with a medium-term target of Rs 53,000 and a long-term target of Rs 58,000 with an expected upside of 8-17 per cent. In the case of silver, Motilal Oswal said the accumulation zone will be Rs 53,500-Rs 54,000 with a medium-term target of Rs 64,500 and a long-term target of Rs 73,000 with an expected upside of 13-28 per cent. According to Quantum AMC, the correction in the gold prices from the peak has made the metal affordable this festive season. "To make the most of the correction, we recommend investing in efficient products such as gold ETFs (exchange-traded funds) to maximize the benefits," Quantum AMC said. Owning physical gold comes with additional costs such as making charges, retail premiums, storage concerns, and lower buyback value. On its part, Emkay Global Financial Services in a report said the current weakness in gold may continue till there is more concrete information on the state of the economy in the major economies, especially against the background of an aggressive central bank trade-off unfavourable to growth and promoting stability. Generally, gold is considered as a hedge against inflation but this time around it does not seem so. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/global-vc-investment-falls-for-3rd-straight-quarter-report/articleshow/94985259.cms">Global VC investment falls for 3rd straight quarter: Report </a><a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/hong-kongs-hang-seng-index-hits-a-13-year-low/articleshow/94984206.cms">Hong Kong's Hang Seng index hits a 13 year low</a>

'Gold and Silver for medium to long term as investment'

The month-on-month net inflows for <keyword id="6391506" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="EQUITY" source="Orion">equity</keyword> mutual funds came down by 42.6 per cent to Rs 8,898.25 crore in July 2022, as per the figures released by the <keyword id="826589" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="association-of-mutual-funds" source="Orion">Association of Mutual Funds</keyword> in India (AMFI). The total net inflow for the mutual fund industry as a whole last month was Rs 23,604.92 crore as against a net outflow of Rs 69,852.94 crore in June 2022, said AMFI. According to AMFI, the net inflows for equity mutual funds last month was Rs 8,898.25 crore down from Rs 15,497.76 crore logged in June 2022. As on July 31, the average net asset under management (AUM) of the industry was Rs 37,74,802.90 crore as against a figure of Rs 35,64,090.20 crore as on June 30. "July seems to be month where investors has taken some profits off as markets went up, the net sales in equity has plummeted to Rs 8,898 crore Vs. Rs 15,497 crore, momentum was coming down all through last few months as the markets were correcting but July was a steep fall and excluding SIP numbers, we might have witnessed actual net negative sales in July," <keyword id="222480" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="akhil-chaturvedi" source="Orion">Akhil Chaturvedi</keyword>, Chief Business Officer, <keyword id="126141" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="motilal-oswal-amc" source="Orion">Motilal Oswal AMC</keyword>, said. According to him, even the hybrid category has slowed down with both dip on gross sales and higher redemptions. "We are seeing markets recovering and <keyword id="46756" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="fii" source="Orion">FII</keyword> returning although early days to say that this trend will be consistent but if it is then I hope for the retail investors confidence return once again," <keyword id="23186" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="chaturvedi" source="Orion">Chaturvedi</keyword> added. SEE ALSO : <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sustainability/news/rise-in-night-temperature-may-up-your-death-risk-6-fold-study-warns/articleshow/93448230.cms">Rise in night temperature may up your death risk 6-fold; study warns</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sustainability/news/supreme-court-issues-notice-to-centre-in-plea-striving-measures-to-restrain-population-explosion/articleshow/93448794.cms">Supreme Court Issues Notice To Centre In Plea Striving Measures To Restrain "Population Explosion"</a>

Equity MF net inflows fall sharply by 42.6% in July

A roller-coaster ride may have fewer ups and downs than what the gold market has had in 2022, industry experts said while looking back at the year that is set to end soon. "A roller-coaster ride has less ups and downs than what the bullion market had in the year 2022. Both the metals, <keyword id="508294" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-and-silver" source="Orion">Gold and Silver</keyword>, kept the market participants on edge," <keyword id="377165" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="navneet-damani" source="Orion">Navneet Damani</keyword>, Senior Vice-President of Currency &amp; Commodity, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said. According to <keyword id="630853" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="damani" source="Orion">Damani</keyword>, the Comex Gold has made a high of about $1,935 and a low of about $1,630, while silver on other hand made a high of about $25 and a low of about $18. There are a few factors which triggered volatility in the market like, a move in the Dollar Index and yields, aggressive monetary policy stance from major central banks, rising inflationary concern and geo-political tension, which led to this volatility. Concurring with him are Chirag Mehta, CIO and Ghazal Jain, Fund Manager- Alternative Investments, <keyword id="594214" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="quantum-amc" source="Orion">Quantum AMC</keyword> who said in a report: "Gold prices approached an all-time high of around $2,070 in March on the back of risk aversion triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war. But later, as the geopolitical risk premium waned coupled with the Federal Reserve's tightening spree to combat sky-high inflation, prices faced heavy downside pressure." Pointing out the repo rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the <keyword id="6356435" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="us-federal-reserve" source="Orion">US Federal Reserve</keyword>, the two experts said the action resulted in the flight of money from risky assets to the US dollar as the real interest rates (indicated by US 10Y Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) turned positive for the first time in two years in May 2022. "This led to a sell-off in gold taking prices down to a two-and-a-half-year low of $1,614. However, as inflation started to moderate sequentially in Q4 2022, investors started anticipating a less aggressive <keyword id="45672" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="fed" source="Orion">Fed</keyword> in 2023, and the dollar came under pressure helping gold prices to scale back up," the Quantum AMC report said. "Stepping into 2023, we can't be sure if this reaction is justified given that inflation in the US remains well above the Fed's two per cent target, and the Fed has made it clear that while the pace of rate hikes could slow down from here on, but the slower pace does not mean lower rates which the markets had started anticipating," the Quantum AMC officials said. According to the Quantum AMC report, there can be another 50-75 basis points hike in the first half of 2023 by the US Fed which in turn could result in bouts of volatility in both risk assets and gold as real rates rise in an environment of cooling inflation and higher nominal rates. Damani said the gold's domestic story is quite different, as even after such macro happenings there was not a great on the MCX, amidst factors like sharp depreciation in the rupee coupled with a hike in basic customs duty by five per cent on gold. He said 2022 has definitely given a boost in market participants' confidence as to gold and silver. Along with Russia-Ukraine tensions, inflationary concerns and the Covid scare in China, market participants will also carry the baggage regarding slower global growth into the next year, Damani said. "Going ahead, market participants will keenly focus on the monetary policy stance of major central bankers. A move in the Dollar Index and Yields will also be watched by the market. The gold/silver ratio has also fallen from the recent peak of about 97 to about 75, supporting the move in silver. And also apart from safe-haven bets, advancement in green technology and increase in industrial demand could continue to support silver prices," Damani remarked. According to him, there seems some signs of exhaustion in gold and silver and dips could be used as buying opportunities for any medium-to-long-term investor for the target of Rs 58,000 in gold and Rs 73,000 followed by 82,000 in silver. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/homebuyer-affordability-declines-in-2022-but-still-better-than-pre-pandemic-2019-level-says-knight-frank-india/articleshow/96597187.cms">Homebuyer affordability declines in 2022 but still better than pre-pandemic 2019 level, says Knight Frank India</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sustainability/news/coals-and-other-unapproved-fuels-to-be-banned-across-ncr-from-january-1/articleshow/96575746.cms">Coals and other unapproved fuels to be banned across NCR from January 1</a>

Gold & silver markets most likely to see signs of exhaustion in 2023

Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of bank deposits in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialization of household savings in the country, or the rising preference of Indians towards mutual funds and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian equity markets through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by <keyword id="20250971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="franklin-templeton" source="keywords">Franklin Templeton</keyword>, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are <keyword id="4000333" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="household-deposits" source="Orion">household deposits</keyword> really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian <keyword id="20319599" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="households" source="keywords">households</keyword> in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and savings account deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (<keyword id="19942037" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-board-of-direct-taxes" source="keywords">Central Board of Direct Taxes</keyword>) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of <keyword id="20930760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="securities-transaction-tax" source="keywords">Securities Transaction Tax</keyword> (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell equity mutual funds, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by equities can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in deposit growth we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the <keyword id="19900043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fed" source="keywords">Fed</keyword> recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next <keyword id="19918491" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mpc" source="keywords">MPC</keyword> (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day.

A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

<div type="image" title="Are Indians depositing less money in banks, or more in mutual funds? Turns out, it&amp;#39;s neither of those." msid="113663806" hostid="261" sizebytes="1121785"></div> Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of <keyword id="20202062" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-deposits" source="keywords">bank deposits</keyword> in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialisation of <keyword id="20751315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="household-savings" source="keywords">household savings</keyword> in the country or the rising preference of Indians towards <keyword id="19929240" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="keywords">mutual funds</keyword> and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword> through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by Franklin Templeton, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are household deposits really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. <div type="image" title="Yes, household deposits (as % of total deposits) have dipped, but the drop is far from significant" msid="113663882" hostid="261" sizebytes="306706"></div> Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian households in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and <keyword id="114757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="savings-account" source="Orion">savings account</keyword> deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of Securities Transaction Tax (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell <keyword id="6361918" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-mutual-funds" source="Orion">equity mutual funds</keyword>, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by <keyword id="45369" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equities" source="Orion">equities</keyword> can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the Fed recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day. Do you have insights or personal experience to share on your personal finances or money? Contact us at <a target="_blank" class="c-link" href="mailto:businessinsider@timesinternet.in">businessinsider@timesinternet.in</a>.

Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

<ul><li>Robust demand for passenger vehicles is expected to continue driving <keyword id="46211" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="auto-sales" source="Orion">auto sales</keyword> in February. </li><li>This is despite a moderate drop in customer enquiries, according to analysts. </li><li>Electric vehicles in both the passenger vehicle and two-wheeler segments have caught the fancy of customers who are increasingly willing to accept the higher upfront costs in lieu of lower maintenance and operational costs. </li><li>Sales of entry-level cars and two-wheelers are likely to be subdued in February largely due to a weak rural recovery and inflation woes. </li></ul>A robust demand for passenger vehicles (PVs) is expected to boost India’s auto sales numbers for the month of February, as per analysts. This is despite a moderate drop in customer enquiries across carmakers, especially at a time when companies are transitioning to the second phase of BS VI emission norms (also known as BS6 Phase 2). According to analysts at Motilal Oswal, although retail volumes are expected to slow down in February when compared to January, a marriage season in the northern markets and a healthy uptick in urban markets are expected to drive a 10-12% year-on-year growth in the retail segment for the month. “The month of February has been seasonally weak for most of the dealers/OEMs (original equipment manufacturers). Our discussions suggest weakness in two-wheeler sales except for the EVs (electric vehicles), while for PVs the demand remains strong but production constraints still remain on the automatic version and higher variants of SUVs (Sports Utility Vehicles),” said a report by LKP Securities. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Carmakers losing 15-20% sales due to supply chain issues" comment="subhead" text="Carmakers losing 15-20% sales due to supply chain issues">Carmakers losing 15-20% sales due to supply chain issues</cmsannotation> According to a dealer check by analysts, both customer footfalls and demand for passenger vehicles have gained strength every month since the pandemic subsided. However, persistent supply chain issues have resulted in carmakers losing out on 15-20% of their business, failing to take full advantage of this rising demand for PVs. Premium cars, and more specifically, the higher-end automatic variants that use technologies like automatic gear shift (AGS) and automated manual transmission (AMT) are the ones facing the most issues, with companies like Maruti Suzuki reporting waiting periods as long as 4-6 months. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Car models </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Waiting period </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Hyundai Creta </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">8-9 months </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Maruti Suzuki Ertiga (CNG) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6 months </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Maruti Suzuki AGS and AMT variants </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4-6 months </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Tata Tiago EV </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2 months </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">M&amp;M Thar (2WD diesel) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.6000000000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1 year </td></tr></tbody></table> Source: Brokerage reports Analysts also noted that the chip shortage is a bigger problem for Mahindra &amp; Mahindra, since its entire portfolio consists of SUVs, which use chips more than entry-level cars and hatchbacks. Overall, analysts say the robust passenger vehicle demand has resulted in low inventory levels – which are down to 15-20 days – across Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors and Hyundai. According to a Motilal Oswal report, Maruti Suzuki’s Brezza, Grand Vitara and the newly-launched Jimny and Fronx have an order book between 10,000 to 70,000 units. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="EVs catch the fancy of customers" comment="subhead" text="EVs catch the fancy of customers">EVs catch the fancy of customers</cmsannotation> Despite the higher initial cost of purchase, analysts say customers are increasingly preferring electric vehicles, be it in the passenger vehicle or the two-wheeler segment. According to a report by JMK Research, sales of electric vehicles rose 29% sequentially in the December quarter to 3.57 lakh units. “EV has gained a super strong and rapid hold on the markets with all the scooter launches in EV fetching solid demand. Customers are ready to bear the one-time high cost in EVs rather than incurring the recurring high operational costs led by rising fuel costs,” said a report by LKP Securities. While electric vehicles are costlier, their maintenance and operation costs are relatively lower than their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts. Tata Motors’ EV portfolio now accounts for 15% of its sales, up from 5% a year ago, according to a report by LKP Securities. The company’s Nexon EV remains one of the top performers in the EV segment, with a waiting period of 20-25 days. Tata Motors’ more affordable EV offering, the Tiago EV, has an even higher waiting period of up to two months. On the two-wheeler side, Bajaj Chetak and Hero Vida’s wider availability is expected to boost the overall sales. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Customers continue to shun entry-level cars and two-wheelers" comment="subhead" text="Customers continue to shun entry-level cars and two-wheelers">Customers continue to shun entry-level cars and two-wheelers</cmsannotation> Weak rural recovery has also led to a continued decline in demand for entry-level two-wheelers like Hero CD Dawn and CD Deluxe. According to LKP Securities, market leader Hero has witnessed a 5-10% year-on-year drop in demand in February, with customer footfalls at Hero and rival Bajaj dealerships remaining subdued during the month. Price hikes due to higher input costs and BS VI emission norms, higher fuel prices, and inflation woes have contributed to the decline. “Young customers are not favouring the entry level or small hatchbacks like Wagon R, Alto models and are ready to wait till the SUVs are available,” the brokerage noted, underlining that entry-level car sales continued to struggle. The subdued demand was somewhat offset by the marriage season, according to analysts at Motilal Oswal. The brokerage added that premium two-wheelers like those from Royal Enfield have seen their demand remaining intact. However, the lower availability of test vehicles has resulted in some enquiries not translating to sales. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Bajaj Auto to reportedly slash production by 25% amid weak exports" comment="subhead" text="Bajaj Auto to reportedly slash production by 25% amid weak exports">Bajaj Auto to reportedly slash production by 25% amid weak exports</cmsannotation> Bajaj Auto is reportedly planning to slash its production in March by as much as 25% due to weak exports. Exports accounted for 39% of the company’s total sales in January 2023, down from 52% in January 2022. According to a report by the<a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/auto/two-wheelers-three-wheelers/bajaj-auto-plans-production-cuts-amid-uncertainties-over-exports/articleshow/98256284.cms?from=mdr"> Economic Times</a>, Bajaj Auto’s production in March is expected to fall to 2.5-2.7 lakh units, down from an average of 3.38 lakh units in each of the the first nine months of FY23. This will also bring down the company’s total utilisation rate to below 50%. Uncertainties in Nigeria, one of Bajaj Auto’s biggest foreign markets, is likely behind the decision to cut down production, the report added. However, analysts believe the company’s export issues have bottomed out. It remains to be seen whether this translates to sales going forward. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/personal-finance/news/presumptive-taxation-the-scheme-that-eases-burden-on-small-businesses/articleshow/98183636.cms">Presumptive taxation: The scheme that eases burden on small businesses</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/elephant-will-not-march-but-run-powered-by-private-consumption-union-amc/articleshow/98182584.cms">Elephant will not march but run, powered by private consumption: Union AMC</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/india-incs-q3-earnings-largely-meet-analyst-expectations-but-consumption-slowdown-a-worry/articleshow/98154526.cms">India Inc's Q3 earnings largely meet analyst expectations, but consumption slowdown a worry</a>

Passenger vehicles to continue driving auto sales in February, EVs gain a stronghold

<ul><li><keyword id="6358021" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="budget" source="Orion">Budget</keyword> announcement of 20% tax on foreign investments to make investments in the US markets less appealing. </li><li>Direct investments in the US markets remain viable only for a tiny minority of high and ultra high-networth individuals (HNI/UHNIs). </li><li>Retail investors should consider exposure to the US markets through Indian mutual funds that invest in US <keyword id="6354298" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stocks" source="Orion">stocks</keyword> and funds. </li></ul>While one cannot buy a Tesla car in <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> yet, one can buy shares of the electric vehicle (EV) giant. Similarly, one can also invest in shares of Apple, Meta (earlier Facebook), Alphabet (parent company of Google) and other US tech giants. To invest directly in US stocks from India, one needs to send money abroad under the liberalised remittance scheme (LRS). However, a budget proposal to impose a 20% tax collected at source (<keyword id="6357150" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="tcs" source="Orion">TCS</keyword>) on foreign remittances under LRS without any threshold limit has made investing directly in foreign stocks, especially in US stocks, less attractive for investors. Earlier, a 5% TCS was applicable on outward remittances above ₹7 lakh. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="20% tax on foreign investments to hit retail investors hard" comment="subhead2" text="20% tax on foreign investments to hit retail investors hard">20% tax on foreign investments to hit retail investors hard</cmsannotation> Manish Chowdhury, head of research at Stoxbox, a subscription-based value broker, says “The budget proposal would prove to be a deterrent for small-time investors, as it would mean a large upfront cash outflow. Moreover, we believe that the change in TCS will adversely affect investing platforms, especially aimed at retail investors, who are more glued to direct investing in international stocks.” Currently IndMoney and Vested Finance are two such platforms that help Indian investors invest in US stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Pratik Oswal, head, ETFs and Index Funds, Motilal Oswal Financial AMC says that since this means that 20% of the sum invested abroad will be used for tax purposes and locked away at zero-percent interest till you file your taxes, it will mean an additional cost to the investor. It is to be noted that the tax paid can be claimed as credit. “While the TCS of 20% is a sentiment damper for Indians who would like to create a corpus outside of India and invest to meet future dollar commitments, it should not be confused as a sunk cost or additional cost. The TCS will be reflected as tax credit in your Form 26AS. So, the amount of TCS can be claimed as credit against tax payable while filing income tax returns,” says Sumita Pillai, chief executive officer of Torus Private Wealth. In case the TCS is higher than your tax payable, you will get a refund. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Direct investments in the US markets to get costlier" comment="subhead2" text="Direct investments in the US markets to get costlier"> Direct investments in the US markets to get costlier</cmsannotation> In another development, in January 2023, RBI asked SBM Bank to stop LRS transactions till further notice. Both IndMoney and Vested Finance have tie-ups with SBM Bank to make the process of investing faster and cheaper. “Vested Direct, our unique, low-cost digital fund transfer solution is supported by SBM India. With the help of Vested Direct, we were able to lower the overall cost of depositing funds to investors,” says Viram Shah, founder and CEO, Vested Finance. However, after the RBI directive, that is no longer possible. Shah clarifies that the introduction of this ruling means they will not be processing any new deposits using Vested Direct in the interim. This means that investing abroad through the LRS route is now more cumbersome and costly, the way it was a few years ago. This is definitely a dampener when it comes to Indians investing abroad. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Alternative option for investing in the US markets" comment="subhead2" text="Alternative option for investing in the US markets">Alternative option for investing in the US markets</cmsannotation> The above platforms provide investors an option to directly invest in US stocks. However, Indian investors can also get exposure to the US markets indirectly through international mutual funds that invest in the US stock markets. Says Chowdhury, “With the policy change, investing in equities globally through a direct route has definitely become more expensive. However, investors can continue to take exposure in global equities through mutual funds and ETFs because they are still exempt from LRS. We continue to advise small investors to invest in global equities through the indirect route as it saves them from the hassles of setting up the infrastructure for direct investing and also does not involve upfront costs.” Agrees Oswal, “Investors looking at global options should look at mutual funds because they are a lot cheaper right now.” However, a lot of these mutual funds in India cannot accept fresh <keyword id="6355120" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Investment" source="Orion">investment</keyword>s because they have either already exhausted or are about to exhaust the limit of $7 billion to invest in overseas securities and funds. The entire industry is hoping for higher limits to be put in place. “When these mutual funds stop accepting fresh investments, direct investments outside of India via LRS will be the only route available to invest outside of India. That route will make sense for only a very tiny minority of HNIs ( high-networth individuals) and UHNIs (ultra high-networth individuals),” says Avinash Luthria, a financial planner &amp; SEBI registered investment advisor, referring to high and ultra-high-networth individuals. Investors who want to invest in the US market through mutual funds should reach out to the asset management company (AMC) and find out which funds are still accepting fresh investments. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/india-a-long-term-investment-destination-even-among-g-20-countries/articleshow/97875443.cms">India a long-term investment destination even among G-20 countries</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/passenger-vehicles-recorded-highest-ever-sales-this-january-says-siam/articleshow/97874958.cms">Passenger vehicles recorded highest-ever sales this January says SIAM</a>

20% tax on foreign remittances make foreign investments unviable for retail investors

<ul><li>India’s largest software exporter posted a revenue growth of 2.9% growth in revenue to $6.3 billion in the September quarter.</li><li>That was less than 3.8% growth, which was the consensus estimate on the street.</li><li>The market ignored the strength in the US dollar, which hit a 2-year high early on Monday.</li><li>For an exporter like <keyword id="6357150" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tcs" source="Orion">TCS</keyword>, which earns in dollars, a rise in the value of the American currency results in higher profit in rupee terms.</li><li>Check out the latest news and updates on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/">Business Insider</a>.</li></ul>Revenue for India’s largest software exporter Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) grew 2.9% to $6.3 billion in the September quarter, when compared to the preceding three months. That was less than 3.8%, which was the consensus estimate on the street. Even the net margin at 25.6% was less than what the market had hoped for. The stock fell to near ₹3,670 in early morning trade on October 11, wiping out the gains since mid-August. The disappointment was so strong that the market ignored the strength in the US Dollar, which hit a 2-year high early on Monday. <div type="image" title="TCS stock chart" height="900" width="1200" msid="86929363" hostid="261"></div> For an exporter like TCS, which earns in dollars, a rise in the value of the American currency results in higher profit in rupee terms. “We believe demand for core transformation remains strong, and this coupled with exemplary execution is likely to drive strong earnings,” said Edelweiss in its report post earnings and the broking firm kept the rating at ‘buy’ and the target price at ₹5,000 in the next one year. Analysts at Motilal Oswal who cut the share price target by 4% to ₹3770 ⁠— not very far where the stock is right now ⁠— are a bit more circumspect. “The management has indicated that margin in the near term can be soft, led by ongoing supply-side challenges,” said their report. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Broking firm </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Target price for TCS </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Edelweiss </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹5,000 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Motilal Oswal </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹3,774 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Goldman Sachs </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹4,657 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">UBS </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹3,936 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">CLSA </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹4,050 </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table>Source: Analyst reports and media reports TCS hired 43,000 freshers in the first half of 2021 and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/tcs-will-hire-35000-freshers-in-the-next-six-months/articleshow/86871159.cms">expects to hire another 35,000</a> in the next six months. That’s almost twice the hiring target the tech bellwether set for itself at the start of the financial year in April. The churn in the information technology (IT) industry has reportedly cooled off, but in the case of TCS, attrition, increased to 11.9% in July-September quarter from 8.60% in April-June period. This is the highest churn at TCS in at least six quarters. <div type="image" title="TCS attrition" height="900" width="1200" msid="86929922" hostid="261"></div> “We believe this attrition level will continue for the next 2-3 quarters. Having said that, our strong employer brand and our robust talent acquisition and talent development models will help us significantly overcome the supply side issues…We will continue to hire more and more and keep the supply ready since our model is robust. The attrition level is definitely concerning, but we can manage through that,” Milind Lakkad, global head of human resources at TCS, told the media after the earnings announcement on Friday. These are the growth rates of the different industry verticals that TCS provides technology services to: <div type="image" title="TCS vertical chart" height="900" width="1200" msid="86930176" hostid="261"></div> SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/banks/news/opinion-rbi-sticks-to-its-stated-trajectory-but-stands-ready-to-act/articleshow/86908652.cms">OPINION: RBI sticks to its stated trajectory but stands ready to act</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/advertising/brands/news/koo-is-spending-2-6-lakh-a-day-on-facebook-to-beat-twitter/articleshow/86868706.cms">Koo is spending ₹2.6 lakh a day on Facebook to beat Twitter</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/aditya-birla-sun-life-amc-ipo-list-at-2-premium-only/articleshow/86929156.cms">Shares of Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC sees a tepid listing, opens at 2% premium</a>

TCS shares plunge more than 6% despite a stronger dollar that’s good for future profits

Although FII flows have reversed, retail investor confidence remains low thanks to macro concerns

New Delhi, Jan 19 () Equity market progress this week will broadly hinge on ongoing quarterly corporate results and expectations being built around the upcoming Union Budget, according to analysts.
 Investors in domestic market will closely watch quarterly earnings from companies such as Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Axis Bank, Canara Bank and Bank of Baroda this week.
 The BSE gauge Sensex logged a hefty 345.65 points or 0.83 per cent gains in the previous week.
 The recent rally has been enthused by a host of factors, mostly global, like cooling of US-Iran tensions and signing of an initial trade deal between Washington and Beijing to defuse their 18-month trade tussle.
 The Indian market is now looking beyond global factors to focus on earnings announcements and upcoming budget, as both are expected to underpin the sentiment.
 "Going ahead, investors should remain cautious as markets are at all-time high and should expect stock-specific action as Q3 earnings season progresses. Also expectations to the run up to the budget are expected to drive certain sectors related to agri, rural, fertilisers, PSUs, infra and construction.This week key results to watch out for would be ICICI Bank, JSW Steel, Zee, Havells, HDFC AMC," Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said.
Market will also be guided by other key factors like Brent crude movement, rupee-dollar trend and foreign investment flows.
"...Overall expectation is that Q3 is likely to provide a strong push to earnings growth trajectory for FY20 and 21. Further, market is expecting strong measures from the government from budget," Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services said.
On Monday, all eyes will be tracking the movement in TCS shares, as the IT major after market hours on Friday reported a muted 0.2 per cent growth in consolidated net profit at Rs 8,118 crore for the third quarter.
Shares of Reliance Industries will also be in focus as the company on Friday after market hours posted a 13.5 per cent rise in consolidated net profit to a record Rs 11,640 crore in the October-December period of FY2019-20.
"Global markets witnessed a strong rally as easing trade tensions and promising economic data buoyed the sentiments. Indian markets too ended the week with strong gains especially in midcaps and small caps," Hemang Kapasi, Portfolio Manager - Equity Investment Products, Sanctum Wealth Management, said. SUM
MKJ

Corporate earnings, budget expectations to drive equities this week: Analysts

The Reserve Bank may cut interest rates for the sixth straight time on December 5 to support growth that has continued to slip to more than six-year low on slump in manufacturing, bankers and experts said. RBI has cut interest rates on every single occasion the multi-member monetary policy committee (MPC) has met since <keyword id="6359111" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> took over as the Governor of RBI in last December. In five reductions so far in 2019, interest rates have been lowered by a total of 135 basis points over concerns that growth momentum is slowing down and also to try to boost liquidity in the financial system.
 GDP growth slowed sharply to a pace of 4.5 per cent in the July-September, hit by a slump in manufacturing output, which contracted by 1.0 per cent. The pace of GDP growth has moderated from the 5 per cent rate in April-June and 7 per cent in July-September quarter of 2018.
 Das had previously stated that interest rates will reduce until growth revives and this gives confidence that interest rates may be reduced at the end of three-day monetary policy review beginning December 3, a banker, wishing not to be identified, said.
 "With the <keyword id="679958" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy">RBI Monetary Policy</keyword> Committee having decided to retain an accommodative stance following its October rate cut, further rate cuts are possible if economic conditions remain weak," said Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific Chief Economist at IHS Markit. The fall in GDP growth rate was despite a slew of new fiscal policy measures including a large reduction in the base corporate tax rate in a bid to boost private sector investment.
 Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India said inflation is low and is expected to remain so because of the excess capacity in the economy. "This gives the RBI the elbow room to cut rates, which is highly anticipated in the upcoming December meeting."
 In doing so, RBI may look past the recent uptick in inflation last month, largely attributed to vegetables such as onions. But importantly, there has been a slide in core inflation.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd chief economist Nikhil Gupta said: "We are afraid that expectations of better growth in 3QFY20 (October-December) may not pan out. Leading indicators suggest that October (festival month) was the worst in the current cycle. We believe that growth could weaken further to around 4 per cent in 3QFY20, which will mark the trough."
 "Our full-year growth forecast, thus, is revised down from 5.7 per cent earlier to 4.5 per cent for FY20," he said.
 Ranen Banerjee, Leader Public Finance and Economics, PwC India, said the second quarter GDP numbers made it more imperative for a fiscal led priming as the monetary policy interventions clearly are not transmitting.
 "Thus, just to depend on another rate cut by RBI in the upcoming MPC meeting may not be sufficient. The situation demands a coordinated fiscal priming on areas with higher multipliers and where spends could be immediate combined with a monetary policy push to address the effective transmission of rate cuts to the NBFCs. Effect of rural demand uptick on Q3 numbers will be crucial to avert a sub 5 per cent annual growth rate," Banerjee said.
 Sreejith Balasubramanian, Economist - Fund Management, IDFC AMC said bottoming-out of growth could be further down the road and recovery is unlikely to be V-shaped as consumer demand, credit supply and risk appetite remain lacklustre.
 "This and the falling core-CPI should allow the RBI focus more on growth, while a major fiscal stimulus is hindered by the lack of available household financial savings," he said.
 Rajni Thakur, Economist, RBL Bank said the growth in the second half of the year could remain evasive unless government pumps in more stimulus and continues to heavy lift growth push through the fiscal year.
 "The grind up is going to be slow and heavily dependent on fiscal support to come out of current growth recession."
 Majumdar said aggressive asset sales and privatisation reforms will give the government some fiscal space to incur counter-cyclical fiscal policies to boost growth without widening the fiscal deficit.
 "Confronted with the sharp slowdown in economic growth momentum, the Indian government should give a high priority to implementing additional measures to bolster manufacturing output and kick-start an upturn in the investment cycle.
 "Accelerated government spending on infrastructure projects such as roads, railways and ports, as well as urban infrastructure such as affordable housing and hospitals, are the type of fiscal policy measures that could help to revive economic growth momentum within a relatively short timeframe," Biswas said.
 While the RBI has been helping through its monetary policy easing measures, the impact is likely to be more protracted, since monetary policy stimulus effects on the real economy generally act with long lags, he said. ANZ MR
MR

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