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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Severe weather degrades the accuracy of navigation systems and hampers military operations.</li><li>Climate change has made weather patterns more erratic and harder to forecast.</li></ul>More extreme weather is scrambling the high-tech systems that have given the US military its edge.For example, severe weather can degrade navigation systems such as GPS and sensors on precision-guided munitions. Heavy rain ground aircraft and drones, intense heat exhausts troops, dust storms gum up tank engines, and storms damage ships at sea. Smoke and sandstorms blind aerial drones. Commanders and troops need to have a good idea of what the weather will be like the next day or the next month — forecasts that are getting fouled by the growing unpredictability of weather patterns."Reliably forecasting extreme weather's frequency and intensity to inform strategy is perhaps the most important challenge for the US and allied militaries to adapt to or mitigate a changing climate, because it is imperative that operations and campaigns are feasible meteorologically," warned James Regens in a recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-journal/extreme-weather-risk-military-operations-changing-climate">essay</a> for the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank.Unexpected weather has always frustrated the best-laid plans of commanders. Had rain not turned the ground muddy the night before the battle, Napoleon might have been able to move up his artillery and win at <a target="_blank" href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/74/3/1520-0477_1993_074_0413_ghetws_2_0_co_2.xml">Waterloo</a>. Surprise dust storms crippled helicopters in the daring American operation to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.asomf.org/operation-eagle-claw/">rescue hostages from Iran</a> in 1980. And rain and rough seas almost caused the D-Day landings in June 1944 to be cancelled. But in military meteorology's finest hour, sharp-eyed Allied weathermen were able to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/how-weather-forecast-made-history-d-day-landings">forecast a break</a> in the storms that the Germans didn't foresee, which allowed the invasion to achieve tactical surprise.However, these mishaps reflect weather, which is a short-term phenomenon. Climate refers to long-term patterns, including the probability of severe weather. While climate change has become a highly politicized issue, there is general agreement among scientists that the Earth's climate is getting warmer.<div type="image" title="An Iraqi C-130E Hercules photographed during a 2006 sand storm." height="1500" width="2000" msid="110248465" hostid="261" sizebytes="35410"></div>This doesn't mean the weather will be hotter everywhere all the time, but it does indicate that severe weather events — heat, rain, even snow — will be more intense when they happen. One example is California in 2024, which went from years of drought to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/19/weather/california-storm-rain-flooding-tuesday/index.html">"atmospheric rivers"</a> that dumped massive amounts of rain that caused mudslides and damaged homes and roads.This can be catastrophic for farmers and people living in flood zones. But it's equally bad for militaries, especially those with advanced capabilities such as the US armed forces, which rely on delicate and interconnected systems that can be degraded by weather.For example, meteorological information is key to the position, navigation and timing (PNT) systems that enable many guided weapons and communications networks to function and coordinate. "Precision fires, aircraft flight operations, surface warship maneuver, ballistic missile trajectories and satellite launch windows to support intelligence collection and communications systems all depend on reliable PNT solutions grounded in meteorological projections," wrote Regens, an intelligence expert and founding partner of Antiphon Solutions, an Oklahoma-based analytics firm.This puts a premium on developing models and technologies that can offer accurate short- and long-term weather forecasts, and do so even as scientific understanding of the impact of global climate change evolves. The strategic implications are profound. For example, knowing the rate at which <a target="_blank" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3353265/arctic-heating-up-literally-and-as-scene-of-strategic-competition/">Arctic ice is melting</a> — creating new shipping channels and uncovering mineral riches — is of great interest to many nations.Arctic warming creates a "significant homeland defense and national security challenge for US and allied decision-making for North America and NATO's northern flank in Europe," Regens told Business Insider. "Add to this mix the humanitarian missions the US military does in response to floods, monsoons, and other weather problems, and the Pentagon and NATO need to recognize the risk extreme weather in a changing climate poses to military operations."However, Regens points to another problem: getting timely weather forecasts to those who need them. "Military forecasting works fine as long as units have secure network access to near-real time numerically predictive weather information for planning and executing missions," Regens told Business Insider.The problem is that tactical units on the front lines, or in remote areas, often lack the connectivity to receive weather reports. "NOAA [the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration], the private sector and universities are actively working to improve global weather models," Regens said. "The missing link is compressing this capability into a tactical package for warfighters.""This requires a major effort to meet the requirements of tactically disaggregated, independently operating units for immediate reliable data," said Regens. "Otherwise, they are going to have limited success firing highly lethal and expensive munitions at significant ranges." Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

Extreme weather blunts the US military's technological edge 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>With <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-not-over-storms-predictions-2024-10">hurricane season in full swing</a>, Walmart's emergency response team is working overtime.</li><li>The company's response to storms like Hurricane Milton is coordinated by meteorologist Tom Bedard.</li></ul>"Gray-sky days" start around 3:45 a.m. for Walmart's in-house meteorologist, Tom Bedard.When storms are brewing offshore, the 32-year-old Texas native told Business Insider he's up in time to read through the 4 a.m. note from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/MILTON.shtml?">National Hurricane Center</a> with the latest details — the first of four daily dispatches that are scheduled every six hours while the storm is tracked.Two weeks ago, it was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-destroyed-asheville-genz-residents-rebuild-climate-safe-haven-2024-10">Helene ripping through Appalachia</a>. This week, it's Hurricane Milton bearing down on the Gulf Coast of Florida.With more than 5,200 retail locations across the US, not to mention warehouses, trucks, and other support facilities, severe weather is a significant concern to Walmart, especially during hurricane season.Bedard arrived at Walmart just after Idalia — the only hurricane to make landfall in the US last year — following six years at AccuWeather and five years at the National Disaster Preparedness Training Center.Now, as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-evacuation-empty-gas-station-full-hotels-gridlock-traffic-2024-10">Milton gathers steam</a>, Bedard is responsible for leading a group of 10 emergency support groups that cut across all divisions of the retail giant, ranging from store operations to logistics and more.<div type="image" title="Walmart's Emergency Operations Center" height="1667" width="2500" msid="114119830" hostid="261" sizebytes="274172"></div>"We've been coordinating across all different parts of the business unit to make sure that what we're doing for the field comes down with one voice," he told BI. "We've got a responsibility, first and foremost, to make sure our associates are safe, and that if there's a facility that's in an evacuation area, that folks are taking the proper action."As of Wednesday afternoon, more than half of the company's 385 retail locations in Florida were closed in anticipation of Milton's arrival, according to the company's status <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://corporate.walmart.com/purpose/community/disaster-response/hurricane-milton">tracker</a>.While Bedard said he and other meteorologists generally avoid making specific recommendations about what other teams in the company should do, his morning briefings are stacked with a hundred people in Bentonville and several hundred more online looking for guidance about what to expect.Even CEO Doug McMillon and Walmart US CEO John Furner have attended several briefings this week and dropped in on the command center throughout the day to check on the storm's progress, a spokesperson said."Instead of having all these different business units using different sources of weather, we're able to come together and say, 'This is the person that we work with in normal conditions to ensure we're resourced for any natural disaster, and now this person's giving us the weather information when we need it most," Bedard said.<div type="image" title="Walmart's Senior Manager of Emergency Operations, Tom Bedard" height="1666" width="2500" msid="114119828" hostid="261" sizebytes="146260"></div>Under normal conditions, or "blue-sky days," Bedard spends his time meeting with people across the company and helping draft the plans that will be set in motion when a significant weather event is on the horizon."That's what they teach us in our entry-level emergency management courses is develop those relationships, so when you need them at 3 o'clock in the morning for a tornado, you've got them right there," he said.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-grocery-sales-us-compared-kroger-albertsons-2024-3">Walmart's sheer number of stores</a> and its proximity to so many American households also means the retailer plays an outsize role in communities' preparation for and response to disaster."We're still heavily involved in Hurricane Helene's recovery in the southeast and southern Appalachia," Bedard said.<div type="image" title="A convoy of Walmart trucks to Asheville, North Carolina, following Hurricane Helene" height="900" width="1600" msid="114119834" hostid="261" sizebytes="392178"></div>Walmart has so far committed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2024/10/04/walmart-sams-club-and-the-walmart-foundation-increase-commitment-to-10-million-to-hurricane-helene-relief-efforts">$10 million</a> to post-Helene efforts, a figure which includes donations of food, water, and essential supplies, as well as grants to relief organizations."When you need to make something happen, there's a Sam's Club or a supply chain facility that can be there to support it," he added. "We want to support communities. As soon as we've got our associate safety taken care of, we really take great pride in what we're able to do for communities across the nation."More than the bottomless espressos, what drives Bedard most during these storms is personal experience."Growing up in Houston in the 2000s, I got to see the Gulf Coast hurricane seasons at their worst. I was there for Katrina — being able to take in some of the Katrina refugees in Houston — and there for Rita," he said. "Being able to learn more about something that terrified me is how I found my way into weather."

Walmart's in-house meteorologist has been extremely busy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Homebuyers are still migrating into counties most-exposed to climate damage, JPMorgan said.</li><li>It's causing home prices to rise roughly 40% more in those locations than in less risky areas.</li></ul>Despite extreme weather events taking their toll on houses across the US, homebuyers are still flocking to the most at-risk regions. That's caused home prices in the riskiest areas to increase at a rate far exceeding safer locations, according to JPMorgan.Since the turn of the century, home prices in counties most exposed to climate-related damage have jumped around 40% more on average than all others, strategists Alexander Wise and Jan Loeys wrote.Risks considered in their analysis included extreme heat, drought, wildfires, flooding, sea level rise, particulate matter, and hurricanes. The researchers then gave each county a composite climate risk score, measured against each area's house price index. "On average, residential real estate prices have grown faster in the past two decades in areas which are more exposed to climate risk, which is precisely the opposite of what one should have expected if climate risk were appropriately priced into markets," they found, discovering a similar trend when controlling for GDP growth.A positive relationship also emerged between higher climate risk and population growth, indicating that more people were migrating in than leaving these areas.In JPMorgan's view, it simply may be that homebuyers are not paying attention to climate risks, further encouraged by government commitments to rebuild properties in damaged areas. Others may simply have no intent on selling, and consider themselves too old to experience these rising costs."This may be irrational in the sense that individuals are not taking into account costs that they will bear, whether these costs are realized through the direct effects of climate change, or reduced resale value due to elevated climate risks in the future," the analysts wrote.In July, Redfin similarly noted that <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/home-affordability-crisis-climate-change-supply-housing-boom-disaster-areas-2023-7">far more people</a> were moving into disaster-prone regions than moving out, citing the pandemic's housing boom and the currently unfolding affordability crisis as key drivers of the trend. For instance, net migration into flood-risk counties jumped 103% between the 2019-2020 and 2021-2022 periods, while wildfire-risk areas notched a 51% rise.But changes to property insurance may force prospective buyers to give more attention to climate risks, JPMorgan noted. Rising insurance premiums would weigh on ownership costs, potentially depressing demand.It's already happening in markets such as Florida. A <a href="https://www.redfin.com/news/florida-condo-prices-dropping/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Redfin</a> report on Monday found that both condo prices and sale values in the state have been dropping year on year, as natural disasters skew up insurance — last year alone, the average cost surged 40%.To be sure, insurers have been hiking premiums and leaving at-risk regions across the country. Yet an estimated <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/home-values-collapse-climate-change-risks-insurance-market-first-street-2023-9">39 million homes are insured at prices</a> that don't reflect the growing dangers, A First Street Foundation calculated last year, potentially setting the market up for a correction: "This one quarter of all properties represents the current Insurance Bubble of properties likely overvalued due to the underpricing or subsidization of climate risk in their insurance products," the report said in September.For now, JPMorgan noted that some households have been shielded from rising premiums by governmental efforts, which may limit price upside.

Homebuyers are flocking to areas most exposed to extreme weather risk and pushing prices higher, JPMorgan says

Two trillion, six-hundred and fifteen billion dollars.It's an amount so large it's almost impossible to comprehend. It represents the estimated tab for 371 weather and climate disasters in the US since 1980 that topped $1 billion in damage. On the list are many of the country's most destructive tropical cyclones, droughts, and severe storms, the most recent being <a href="https://www.insider.com/tropical-storm-idalia-hurricane-forecast-florida-2023-8">Hurricane Idalia</a>. They're the events we can remember — and many more we likely can't because so many more disasters have been breaking into the billion-dollar club in recent years. Decade to decade, costly extreme weather events are increasing in both frequency and intensity as greenhouse gases build up in our atmosphere.Yet as big as the dollar figures can get, they can never convey all that is truly lost in these disasters. Countless costs to people get left out of official tallies, including mental and physical trauma. There are harms in the form of environmental damage and supply-chain disruptions. These become, in essence, hidden costs. And many of us are paying them.Meet a teacher who nearly died from heatstroke after a hike, a farmer in Texas who watched a hurricane and subsequent deep freeze wipe out much of his citrus crop, and a woman whose nonprofit lost everything to a flood.<h2>The true cost of extreme heat</h2>Lois Nigrin grew up on a farm and loved getting outdoors. So when she and her husband set off on a hike in Arizona as part of an anniversary trip, she didn't anticipate how wrong things could go. Heat was nothing new for Nigrin — and the couple had trained for the hike.<div type="image" title="A portrait photo of Lois Nigrin standing in front of foliage." height="2000" width="3000" msid="103845753" hostid="261" sizebytes="278284"></div>Yet the temperatures were so extreme that day in June 2019 that what was meant to be a celebration of decades of partnership ended up leaving Nigrin in a coma with third-degree burns on her backside. Her family rushed to the hospital to be with her in what doctors said would likely be her final hours.Nigrin, a teacher in Nebraska, survived the nightmare but still has the scars from her burns and skin grafts, which remind her how close she came to dying. Her ordeal points to the rising cost of extreme heat, the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-related-deaths" target="_blank" rel="noopener">leading weather-related killer</a> in the US.The type of heat that nearly killed Nigrin could add $1 billion every summer to US healthcare costs for things such as emergency-department visits, the Center for American Progress estimates. The problems are also likely to extend beyond the hospital into everyday life. The Atlantic Council predicts that a rising number of sweltering days could zap some $100 billion a year from the nation's labor productivity.For Nigrin, the full cost of extreme heat is something she's still grappling with.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/arizona-heat-so-hot-almost-killed-teacher-heatstroke-burns-2023-9">Read more about her story here.</a><h2>The true cost of volatile weather</h2>Dale Murden has the unflappable demeanor of a farmer who's been forced to deal with the ups and downs of a tough business. He's relied on that trait over his more than 40 years growing citrus and raising cattle in Harlingen, Texas.But in recent years, he's witnessed swings that leave him wondering whether times are changing and whether his farm, near the Mexico border, will remain in a subtropical climate.Murden watched in back-to-back seasons as a hurricane and then a deep freeze ruined huge portions of his grapefruit harvest and trees. Recovery has taken years.<div type="image" title="Owner of farm in orange orchard." height="3840" width="5760" msid="103845754" hostid="261" sizebytes="2181162"></div>As the weather gets more extreme, farmers are having a harder time knowing what to plan for. And supports such as crop insurance don't always cover all the costs that erratic weather delivers, particularly for fruit and vegetable growers. In Murden's case, some of his trees suffered damage when extreme cold dipped into the southern edge of Texas.An increase in the intensity of cold snaps is one of the more-peculiar developments of a warmer world: The heat can dislodge the bands of cold air that normally hug the Arctic — sending cold air plunging south. That's what Murden experienced in February 2021 when he lost much of his grapefruit harvest.Texas leads among states in both cumulative damages due to extreme weather and frequency of these events, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration analysis going back to 1980 found.The Texas citrus industry has experienced the fallout from volatile weather. Over the past two decades, citrus growers in Southeast Texas have produced nearly 274,000 tons of grapefruit and oranges on average each season. That was nearly cut in half during the 2020-21 season, according to data compiled by the Texas Valley Citrus Committee. The following year was even worse, yielding just under 74,000 tons.Economists at Texas A&amp;M University tallied overall losses at nearly $228 million and more than 1,000 jobs because the citrus harvest relies on seasonal workers who pick fruit.In states such as Texas, where costly weather is becoming the norm, it's getting harder for some farmers to get by. That's something Murden knows well.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-farming-extreme-cold-heat-weather-swings-2023-9">Read more about his experience here.</a> <h2 id="gi-flood">The true cost of flooding</h2>Barb Grant has built her life's work around helping others. For someone like Grant, being unable to help people in a crisis is an awful feeling. So when flood waters ripped through the offices of the nonprofit she runs in eastern Iowa, she felt helpless. She had to tell those she would normally assist that there wasn't much her community-aid organization could do for them. It, too, was dealing with ruinous flooding. <div type="image" title="Barb Grant standing on her newly renovated building." height="3023" width="4541" msid="103845756" hostid="261" sizebytes="701628"></div>The organization eventually recovered and was rebuilt on higher ground, yet whenever flooding is predicted, Grant feels on edge. She's not alone. Many people have experienced flooding — not just those along the coasts or near rivers. Torrential rains and snowmelt mean flooding is an almost daily event in the US. It's so common that flooding is the most frequent — and costliest — type of natural disaster in the country, according to the nonprofit Pew Charitable Trusts.Grant, like an increasing number of Americans, knows what often comes after a flood: a long recovery.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/flood-risks-american-businesses-nonprofit-iowa-still-recovering-2023-9">Read more about her story here.</a><h2>The true cost of inaction </h2>There is more to this story than a set of ruinous tragedies. Data suggests costs of extreme weather are trickling through the economy and could soon overwhelm our social safety net if left unchecked, economists told Insider. Doing nothing is a way to guarantee the tab continues to increase. It could also mean missing out on a huge opportunity. By taking action to curb emissions and move toward a more resilient economy, it's possible we could create a world where the climate crisis is just another pressure we need to deal with, rather than a string of unmanageable calamitous events.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-climate-crisis-can-change-make-economy-better-resilient-2023-9">Read about what could be ahead here.</a><h2>Credits</h2>Reporters: Annie Fu, Morgan McFall-Johnsen, Catherine Boudreau, Jacob Zinkula, Marianne Guenot Design, development, and graphics: Annie Fu Editors: Tim Paradis, Matt Turner, Josée Rose Copy editors: Nick Siwek, Jonann Brady Design editor: Kazi Awal Photo editor: Isabel Fernandez-Pujol Photographers: Rachel Jessen, Miriam Alarcón Avila, Arin Yoon, Jason Garza, Courtesy of Barb Grant, Courtesy of Operation Threshold

The true cost of extreme weather

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Cocoa prices have doubled during the past year, hitting an all-time high, Bloomberg reported.</li><li>The most active cocoa contract hit $5,600 a metric ton, passing a record high of $5,379 in 1977.</li></ul>Chocolate lovers beware: the price of cocoa has hit an all-time high, threatening to make chocolate more expensive.Cocoa prices have doubled during the past year, with the most active futures contract hitting $5,600 a metric ton on Thursday, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/cocoa-hits-record-on-tight-supply-threatening-pricier-treats?srnd=markets-vp">Bloomberg reported</a>. That's the highest price the contract has reached in data compiled by Bloomberg spanning 65 years.The last record high was notched in 1977, when contracts hit $5,379 a ton.At the crux of the crunch is <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/cocoa-prices-futures-high-chocolate-nino-shortages-harvest-commodity-scarcity-2023-11">extreme weather events</a> that have battered crops in West Africa, which provide most of the world's cocoa beans. After a torrent of rain helped spread a crop disease that buffeted supply, dry weather threatens to further stymie production.Earlier this week the president of the European Cocoa Association, Paul Davis, said he wouldn't rule out <a href="https://www.confectioneryproduction.com/video/40971/exclusive-paul-davis-european-cocoa-association-president-interview/">prices soaring to $6,000</a> a ton."We've got headwinds all over the place at the moment," he said. "Very expensive fertilizers, tough conditions for farmers, tough conditions for consumers."That's set to hurt the likes of chocolate makers like Hershey, which said in its <a href="https://hershey.gcs-web.com/static-files/332e9099-d69b-43a1-af08-06204f8e0ec8">earnings report</a> on Thursday that "historic cocoa prices" are expected to crimp earnings growth in 2024.And it's not a shortage that can be immediately reversed. While some growers have expanded their production amidst the shortage, new trees take a few years to grow cocoa beans."We are in a very tight balance," which is likely to last for another 18 months to three years, Davis said. "There is no cavalry that's coming to the rescue."Crops around the world have suffered from increasingly extreme weather events. Last year, damaged harvests also boosted the price of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/sugar-prices-spike-to-a-decade-high-on-rising-worries-of-a-global-shortage/articleshow/99441953.cms?_ga=2.74107474.1125357558.1707135147-319671707.1695743586">sugar</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/food-inflation-orange-juice-prices-florida-economy-eggs-olive-oil-2023-10">orange juice</a>, and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/europe-olive-oil-shortage-extreme-weather-heatwaves-prices-harvests-2023-9">olive oil</a> to multi-year highs.

Chocolate lovers beware: Cocoa prices have doubled as extreme weather batters supply

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Fishnet flats have become the trendiest and most divisive shoe of the summer.</li><li>Popular pairs of the see-through style are often bold in color and cost hundreds of dollars.</li></ul>Like it or not, everyone is showing their feet this summer. And no, I'm not talking about people wearing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sandals-whats-popular-and-going-out-of-style-summer-2024">sandals or flip-flops</a>.Instead, fishnet flats have quickly emerged as the style of the season.The trendy shoes are essentially an extension of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link c-link--underline" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/style/best-flats">ballet flats</a>, which came back into style around 2023 and are still going strong.They can also be extremely expensive — over $800 per pair, in some cases — and widely divisive. Though many <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dopamine-dressing-how-to-feel-happier-with-clothes-2024-3">fashion fans</a> love them, some people online are begging style influencers to "put their toes away."<div type="image" title="Influencer Katie Giorgadze wears black fishnet flats from Alaïa." height="2000" width="3000" msid="112203202" hostid="261" sizebytes="220642"></div><h2 id="ac238d0c-31fd-49c7-b7a0-56943db80df9">Fishnet flats are everywhere</h2>The phrase "fishnet flats" might bring to mind an image from the early 2000s: backless, mesh flats with floral embellishments that you could find at the dollar store.That's arguably where the netted style first began.But in 2023, fashion house <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taylor-swift-cant-dress-fashion-bad-taste-strategy-2024-2">Alaïa</a> brought something new to the table: shoes that merged the classic shape of ballet flats with the mesh of old-school slip-ons. The brand also added thin, solid straps across each foot.After its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.maison-alaia.com/us/flats_cod17157996ek.html">$890 flats</a> launched around April of that year, fashion fans flooded Alaïa's Instagram with comments asking for a restock.Celebrities like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.tiktok.com/@sofiagrainge/video/7250212337972546862?is_from_webapp=1&amp;sender_device=pc&amp;web_id=7381479116761663022">Sofia Richie</a> also began sporting them around that time. But it wasn't until a year later that fishnet flats took over the fashion landscape, with numerous brands suddenly selling their own versions.Reformation's website offers <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=5266a4979ec30951775e3c603ae6668735c479416209aa41287209f00dfe8e55&amp;postID=66991bc520eaab25bc1a5be2&amp;postSlug=controversial-mesh-flats-popular-summer-shoe-2024-7&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thereformation.com%2Fproducts%2Fbritt-ballet-flat%2F1315676IRC.html">$268 mesh flats</a>, The Row sells <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fwrd.com/product-the-row-mara-flat-in-red/TERX-WZ292/?d=Womens">$890 jelly versions</a>, and Bottega Veneta designed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=991e687fd12f3d8b1a0e6103d4ed2808e223e8ec98a6918de36ce7d18edc6d0a&amp;postID=66991bc520eaab25bc1a5be2&amp;postSlug=controversial-mesh-flats-popular-summer-shoe-2024-7&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bottegaveneta.com%2Fen-us%2Fstretch-ballerina-flat-beige-740001VBPS19713.html">$1,250 fishnet shoes lined with leather.</a>You might need some luck to buy the above styles, though.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mary-kate-and-ashley-olsen-bios-child-actors-fashion-2023-5">The Row</a>, for example, has sold out of fishnet flats on its website and across multiple luxury shopping platforms like Fwrd. Many sizes of fishnet shoes from Bottega Veneta and Alaïa are also unavailable.Consumer interest matches those sales. The phrase "mesh flats" reached an all-time peak in Google searches in May (as many fashion fans prepared their summer wardrobes) and has remained high in the following months. So what's making these shoes so popular, and why do people love them?For one thing, they're everywhere. Brands like Alaïa have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/C9hViThIEnG/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link">heavily marketed</a> fishnet shoes in recent weeks, and searching "fishnet flats" and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.tiktok.com/search?q=mesh%20flats&amp;t=1721397825051">"mesh flats"</a> on TikTok results in dozens of videos — ranging from reviews to styling tips — with thousands of views each.Celebrities like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.harpersbazaar.com/celebrity/latest/a61191633/anne-hathaway-alaia-mesh-ballet-flats/">Anne Hathaway</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.vogue.co.uk/article/jennifer-lawrence-mesh-flats">Jennifer Lawrence</a> also continue to wear the shoes, potentially inspiring fans to drop hundreds on designer pairs.But mostly, fashion fans appreciate that the shoes are comfortable and practical while also being stylish.Shloka Sensarma, a content creator who posts about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quiet-status-symbols-popular-this-year-2024-1">luxury fashion</a>, told Business Insider that she's "such a fan" of mesh styles — particularly those from Alaïa."Don't knock 'em until you try 'em," she said. "You might look at them and think they're weird or strange. But when you put them on, you realize they look great with pretty much everything. I wear mine all the time. They are such good quality." <h2 id="c9c92853-192d-4538-bdaf-a238775d32c3">The evolution of 'summer troll shoes'</h2>Of course, not everyone is on board with people wearing shoes that show feet. On websites like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reddit.com/r/nycinfluencersnarking/comments/1crgjzv/wearing_mesh_flats_in_nyc/">Reddit</a>, some fashion fans have argued that fishnet flats, in particular, are unappealing and unhygienic."I'm not a huge fan of them," model and fashion fan Miah Divita told BI about fishnet flats. "I grew up seeing them as slippers you wear around the house, so wearing them outside is a little ironic to me. I also don't like feet, so I dislike that you can see through them."But Roni Brunn, an accessories designer and fashion content creator, told BI that the buzz these criticisms create can also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-coach-purses-became-popular-again-2024-6">benefit fashion brands</a>."There's a subgenre of status-symbol shoes that I call 'summer troll shoes.' They're very impractical," she said.Past examples include <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kanye-west-yeezy-foam-runners-memes-2019-9">Yeezy's foam runners</a> in June 2020, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/balenciaga-transformed-crocs-into-stilettos-and-rain-boots-2021-6">Balenciaga's heeled Crocs</a> in June 2021, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/emma-corrin-ballon-bra-olivier-awards-2022-4">Loewe's balloon heels, </a>which were often spotted last year at Fashion Week events around the world.This year, Brunn said, The Row's Mara flats made from jelly-like plastic fit the bill.They might be controversially cute with jeans and a T-shirt, but wearing them in the rain, for example, could be a pretty bad idea.<div type="image" title="A New York Fashion Week attendee wears red pumps from Loewe that are covered in deflated balloons." height="1250" width="1667" msid="112203197" hostid="261" sizebytes="78356"></div>"These shoes show off that you can spend money on a joke — on something that is deeply unserious and that will look offensive to a lot of people with so-called good taste," Brunn told BI. "There are different ways of expressing status, and all of them depend on your audience."If you're an influencer with fans who are quick to comment on "ugly" shoes, that might draw your eye to unconventional flats. On the other hand, you might skip this fad if your family, friends, and coworkers are the only ones to see your shoes.However, discourse around unconventional shoes like these fishnet pieces can make even the most skeptical consumers question their taste.On <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.tiktok.com/@afrolatinathings/video/7382667459330854190">TikTok</a>, many have described fishnet flats as "ugly cute" and sought opinions on whether they should purchase a pair — a phenomenon seen previously with shoes like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-history-growth-of-birkenstock-german-shoe-brand-2023-8">Birkenstocks</a>, Crocs, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ugg-vs-ugg-since-1974-what-the-difference-is-2023-12">UGGs</a>.Only time will tell if mesh styles stick around after this trend cycle. But as Brunn pointed out, brands always seem to have a new "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/crocs-ugly-fashion-cowboy-boots-business-strategy-2023-10">ugly shoe</a>" on the way.And let's be real — whatever's next could be much worse than fishnet flats.

Expensive fishnet flats are the reigning ugly shoes of the summer

<ul class="summary-list"><li>John Seo steered Fermat Capital Management to 20% gains in 2023, Bloomberg reported.</li><li>A Harvard physics grad, Seo traded catastrophe bonds with great success amid volatile weather and inflation.</li></ul>In 2023, John Seo comfortably beat the market placing bets on the weather. Seo — who holds a PhD in biophysics from Harvard University — runs Fermat Capital Management, and delivered 20% returns last year. That's more than double the hedge fund average of 8% in that stretch.According to a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-catastrophe-bonds-fermat/?srnd=markets-vp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a> profile published Tuesday, Seo's firm owns the largest collection of catastrophe bonds in the world. Insurers issue the debt securities to account for unanticipated risks and super-rare events. Cat bonds, which pay investors as long as disaster does not strike, have become a lucrative, high-yielding bet in the age of rising climate catastrophes. The bonds help insurers meet obligations to policyholders in the event of a natural disaster. They have been around for decades, and Seo has been trading them for about as long, the report said.He makes investment decisions with computer weather models, and last year was a banner year for the complex assets. Insurers issued a record $16 billion worth of cat bonds amid concerns about extreme weather as well as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-consumer-price-index-food-gas-housing-prices-february-2024-3">inflation</a> pressures, which have made it more expensive to rebuild after a natural disaster.Companies are concerned about the growing occurrence of climate-related tragedy or damages, and the Bloomberg report said less than a third of the $380 billion in global climate losses was insured."The insurance market is on edge," Seo told <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-catastrophe-bonds-fermat/?srnd=markets-vp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a>. "It's freaked out about risk and wants as little as possible."Fermat, which Seo founded in 2001 with his brother, holds a roughly $10.8 billion portfolio and was able to capture about a quarter of the cat bond market in 2023. It holds stakes in about 80% of the nearly 300 securities outstanding in the market.These assets are issued only once in awhile to protect against major, freak incidents like particularly damaging hurricanes or earthquakes. They're also a method used by by large multinational finance organizations like the World Bank to help pay for rebuilding in developing countries after a disaster strikes. That rarity, however, creates a market of potentially drastic wins and losses — and Fermat nailed its trades for its best year of returns ever. Last year was "a unicorn year where you have great returns and equilibrium in the market," Fermat managing director Brett Houghton told Bloomberg in a separate <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/hedge-fund-fermat-has-best-year-ever-after-cat-bond-bets-soar?sref=GBEdnt3o" target="_blank" rel="noopener">January</a> interview. One factor that helped cat bond investors was that the hurricane season was less severe than in 2022, which meant fewer losses had to be covered. "2024 promises to be another interesting year for investors in terms of attractive returns," Houghton said, per Bloomberg.

A hedge fund run by a Harvard physics grad delivered 20% returns in 2023 betting on extreme weather

<ul class="summary-list"><li>We <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/early-retirement-not-worth-it-dad-sacrificed-frugal-died-2024-9">retired early</a> 14 years ago and moved abroad because the US was too expensive.</li><li>We set our sights on Cuenca, Ecuador, which has moderate weather and is super walkable.</li></ul>In 2008, we were living the American dream in Las Vegas with high-income careers, beautiful homes, and investments in place so we could take our hard-earned retirement in only a few short years.But then the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/woman-warned-great-recession-2008-brooksley-born-wall-street-sexism-2024-3">Great Recession</a> changed everything. Suddenly, we were both unemployed, our home had lost two-thirds of its value almost overnight, and our savings were in free fall.As the months dragged on and our financial situation became more desperate, we decided our best option was to retire early and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/moving-us-to-switzerland-better-quality-of-life-staying-abroad-2024-9">move abroad</a> somewhere with a lower cost of living.We settled on a city we weren't sure how to pronounce in a country we knew next to nothing about: Cuenca, Ecuador.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boomer-couldnt-afford-retirement-moved-ecuador-cheaper-lonely-social-security-2024-9">Ecuador</a> is considered one of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.travelandleisure.com/trip-ideas/senior-travel/cheapest-countries-to-retire-abroad/">cheapest countries to retire to</a>, and Cuenca checked all of the boxes on our retirement-location wish list.Having been here 14 years now, I get why publications like International Living consider it one of the <a target="_blank" href="https://internationalliving.com/countries/ecuador/cuenca/">best retirement locations in the world</a>.Here are five reasons we love our life as retirees abroad in Ecuador.<h2 id="f13ad7dc-92ce-42bb-bc74-9a8b6777615d">We can walk everywhere</h2>Walkability was huge on our retirement wish list, and Cuenca has been a dream.Both of us sold our cars shortly before flying to Ecuador, and we haven't owned a vehicle since.Almost all of our daily needs are within a 10-minute walk from our home. For everything else, we ride a modern light-rail system that costs $0.17 cents a trip or take a $2 taxi.Plus, walking is a pleasurable activity that helps support our fitness goals. We love getting to stroll along the river that runs beside our apartment or walk to grab a coffee.<h2 id="6fdaf1d2-1baa-4278-901a-8822ced089f0">Our cost of living is much lower now</h2><div type="image" title="View of trees and flowing water from terrace" height="1251" width="1600" msid="114815164" hostid="261" sizebytes="629934"></div>Since we would be living primarily on our Social Security incomes, finding a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/most-affordable-retirement-communities-weather-healthcare-florida-arizona-california-homebuyer-2024-5">cheaper place to retire</a> was essential.Our monthly expenses are now about $2,000, which includes rent for a penthouse apartment in the city's most prestigious neighborhood. This also includes housekeeping services, yoga studio and gym memberships, regular massages, and dining out several times a week.Ecuador also has a universal healthcare system and much <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://yapatree.com/healthcare-us-vs-ecuador/">lower healthcare costs</a> compared with the US, which has some of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2023/oct/high-us-health-care-spending-where-is-it-all-going">highest</a> in the world.We couldn't imagine living so well in any <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/left-walkable-city-upsized-after-retirement-moved-to-suburbs">walkable city in the US</a> on this budget — we even have money left over each month that we put in savings or use to travel.<h2 id="71e19266-1990-45a8-b2c3-360b0f18c96d">Cuenca's weather is fantastic</h2>Another feature high on our retirement wish list was a temperate climate. Ecuador's weather is quite consistent year-round, and we have a lot of sunlight, in part because it straddles the equator.Since Cuenca is 8,400 feet above sea level in the Andes mountains, most days are mild and cool. This weather is perfect for us.We've never cared for cold winters and were over high heat and humidity after living most of our lives in the US South.<h2 id="c391f76e-5296-407f-9db5-54c7e439a18e">There's amazing biodiversity here</h2><div type="image" title="Stone walking path lined with grass and trees next to Tomebamba River in Cuenca " height="1063" width="1600" msid="114815156" hostid="261" sizebytes="636038"></div>Though smaller than some US states, Ecuador is one of the most biodiverse countries in the world.It's home to the stunning <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-do-on-the-galpagos-islands-according-to-frequent-visitor">Galápagos Islands</a> and more than 23,000 species of plants and animals, and the western border occupies 1,400 miles of Pacific coastline.The Andes mountains run from north to south like a stony spine, and the lush Amazon rainforest takes up a lot of land.We've gone <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/luxury-camping-under-canvas-great-smoky-mountains-photos-2023-7">glamping</a> in the jungle, watched humpback whales, toured volcanoes, and hung out with blue-footed boobies and giant tortoises all without ever leaving Ecuador.<h2 id="32369e47-64e2-4cdd-9ddb-f9be0e108401">With our vibrant expat community, we never feel bored</h2>Cuenca has a vibrant community of thousands of retired expats like us, and there's always something going on in the city.It has live theater performances, bilingual church services, wine tastings, yoga retreats, and every kind of meetup group you can imagine.We even have an online bulletin board that keeps local residents aware of coming events, items for sale, and real-estate listings.

We retired abroad to Cuenca, Ecuador, once the US got too expensive. We still love the expat hot spot 14 years later.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Deepmind's GraphCast AI can produce an accurate 10-day weather forecast in under a minute.</li><li>The Google-owned company's AI model is the first that can outperform conventional forecasters.</li></ul>New research has shown that an AI model developed by Google-owned Deepmind has outperformed traditional weather forecasters for the first time.The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi2336">peer-reviewed study</a>, published in the journal Science, said that Deepmind's GraphCast AI model "significantly outperformed" the conventional system for predicting the weather, which is run by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast.The AI model can produce an accurate 10-day forecast in under a minute and represents "a turning point in weather forecasting," according to the paper."Weather prediction is one of the most challenging problems that humanity has been working on for a long, long time," Pushmeet Kohli, Deepmind's VP of research, told Business Insider."If you look at what has happened in the last few years with climate change, this is an incredibly important problem," he said.GraphCast is trained on 39 years of historical weather data from the ECMWF. According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/ca5d655f-d684-4dec-8daa-1c58b0674be1">the Financial Times</a>, the research showed that GraphCast's three to 10 day weather predictions were more accurate than conventional forecasts. But Deepmind warned that the model did have some limitations compared to non-AI forecasts when dealing with the uncertainty inherent in longer-term weather forecasts.Speaking to the FT, the architects of the project said that GraphCast had been able to predict where Hurricane Lee, a powerful storm that hit North America earlier this year, would make landfall three days before traditional forecasters.ECMWF machine learning specialist Matthew Chantry told Insider that GraphCast represented "a significant and welcome step forward" for the industry.He told the FT that once trained on a wider variety of historical data, models such as GraphCast would prove to be much cheaper than current weather forecasting methods, which rely on powerful (and expensive) supercomputers."We might be talking about 1,000 times cheaper in terms of energy consumption," he said. "That is a miraculous improvement."

Deepmind's new AI could help forecast extreme weather faster

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The market is beginning to price in the effect of the new El Niño weather pattern, Morgan Stanley said.</li><li>It's already sent utilities and chocolate stocks plummeting and insurance stocks soaring so far this year.</li></ul>The market is beginning to price in the effect of the next extreme weather cycle — and it's sending stocks on diverging paths.That's because the upcoming El Niño phenomenon has come into clearer focus, allowing Wall Street to predict who the top winners and losers could be. In fact, mentions of "El Niño" in earnings calls are already rising."Extreme weather events are broadening and strengthening," Morgan Stanley analysts led by Javier Martinez de Olcoz wrote in a note issued Tuesday. "The micro effects are proliferating, and stocks are diverging. The macro effects have the potential to be inflationary, if increased restrictions through the Panama Canal become more acute."That's as a parched Panama Canal doesn't have enough water to let as many ships pass through the waterway as it once used to.Utilities, chemicals, global food retail, and chocolate are four stocks that have been already gutted this year. On the flip side, insurance stocks as well as Brazilian sugar and ethanol producers trading way higher.Meanwhile, global utilities have more or less traded flat, while freight and shipping stocks have begun falling.<div type="image" title="Stocks potentially impacted by El Niño" height="648" width="1292" msid="105218033" hostid="261" sizebytes="73186"></div>In addition to stocks, commodities like olive oil, cocoa, and orange juice have felt the impact of the forecasts too. Overall, analysts see crops suffering with the hotter weather. Chocolate is getting more expensive as the holidays approach with dwindling cocoa bean supply and rising cocoa prices.Grains like corn, wheat, and sugar are also getting pricier, which will hurt Latin American food and beverage companies who rely on those commodities for their products."El Niño is confirmed and stronger than normal," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote. "The upstream impact from El Niño is trickling through sectors and supply chains."Also, when crops hurt, it affects the demand for chemicals like fertilizers. The impact on utilities is more varied, hurting some parts of the world but benefiting others. In Latin America, more wind and rainfall is great for power generation. In the US, wildfires have led to more power outages.Meanwhile, insurance companies are seeing higher storm activity in Southern California and drier conditions in the western United States and Australia, which means the reinsurance industry (providers of insurance for insurance companies) will likely get more business.

You Searched For "most expensive extreme weather events of 2020" and got 10 results

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We retired abroad to Cuenca, Ecuador, once the US got too expensive. We still love the expat hot spot 14 years later.

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