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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Business Insider is seeking nominations for its 2024 Oracles of Wall Street list.</li><li>The list highlights top forecasters in finance and economics who made accurate market predictions.</li></ul>A 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The S&amp;P 500 rallying 20%. Shares of Nvidia soaring over 180%. Inflation returning to pre-pandemic levels.Did you or someone you know on Wall Street predict these and other significant developments in 2024? We'd like to hear from you.Business Insider is seeking nominations for its 2024 Oracles of Wall Street list, which highlights the top forecasters among economists, strategists, and analysts this year.<h2 id="86451aa1-1085-48f3-9e45-42b621a23b74"><a target="_blank" href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfu9VdooXwk-dGXU3oOlqPUr63-fje76kQLRiUHYCYSNaB7cQ/viewform?usp=sf_link">Nominations can be made through this form.</a></h2>Nominees can be financial professionals from firms of any size. Their calls from this year or last must be verifiable through published documents or media coverage.The types of calls we're looking for include those that made a correct assertion about something in financial markets or the macroeconomic picture. A few examples are listed above. Forecasts that made last year's list can also be found <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-forecasts-predictions-for-2024-wall-street-oracles-2023-12">here</a>.The deadline for <a target="_blank" href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfu9VdooXwk-dGXU3oOlqPUr63-fje76kQLRiUHYCYSNaB7cQ/viewform?usp=sf_link">submissions</a> is end-of-day on Tuesday, November 19, 2024. Please direct any questions to William Edwards at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:wedwards@businessinsider.com">wedwards@businessinsider.com</a>.

The most accurate forecasts of 2024: Seeking nominations for Business Insider's Oracles of Wall Street list

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Christophe Barraud predicts US growth will accelerate after the election.</li><li>His forecasts consider election outcomes, Congress control, and economic impacts.</li></ul>No one can predict the future with certainty. But when it comes to forecasting the economy, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/most-accurate-economist-shares-his-forecasts-us-outlook-2024-7">Christophe Barraud</a> has a startling track record.Bloomberg has ranked the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco the top US forecaster every year except once since 2012. In the quarterly standings, Barraud clinched the top spot again for the third quarter of 2024.Right now, he has his sights set on the US election, with its high stakes and wide range of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-vs-kamala-harris-opportunity-economy-policies-market-impact-2024-8">economic possibilities</a>. It's a tight race with two very different candidates who would produce different policy outcomes. Perhaps the question that's even bigger than who the next president will be is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-swing-states-election-2024-10">how much power they will wield</a>; no matter how small or grand they seem, policies are hard to pass without a majority in Congress.Barraud expects <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-new-economic-supercycle-growth-inflation-stock-market-global-chaos-2024-10">US growth to accelerate</a> once the results are in, and regardless of who gets elected, he said in an interview. This is because uncertainty has spooked growth as corporations halted big decisions around capex and hiring. Additionally, numerous adverse events, including union strikes and weather conditions like hurricanes, put a damper on things.Overall, he says US GDP growth will run stronger than consensus forecasts. This means that 2024's expected rate of 2.6% would come in at 2.7%, and 2025's consensus of 1.8% would be closer to 2.1%.But growth can differ depending on how Washington is sliced and diced next year. Here's how.<h2 id="1c0bab2f-883e-47e9-9e9b-3eed9804fe05">Barraud's election forecasts — and his most likely outcome</h2>In scenario one, where Vice President Kamala Harris wins with a divided Congress, not much <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-going-on-with-economy-jobs-inflation-election-voting-2024-10">on the economic front</a> is likely to change. Therefore, expect the status quo, he said.In scenario two, former president Donald Trump wins, but with a divided Congress. This would limit his ability to cut taxes for corporations and households. Therefore, he will likely focus his efforts on foreign policy, meaning everything linked to trade restrictions and tariffs could be implemented sooner than expected, Barraud said. The outcome would hurt global growth. In the short term, it would be neutral on US GDP. However, over the long run, as countries retaliate, this could backfire and slow the US economy.The third scenario is a Trump win with a Republican sweep, which Barraud believes is the most likely outcome. He expects Republicans to take the Senate; it's the House that could be a toss-up.If Trump does gain a majority, it would enable him to implement tax cuts for corporations and households. It may also cause him to focus more on domestic rather than foreign policy. In the short term, it would have a positive impact on US economic growth, creating a GDP boost in 2025 between 2.1% and 2.3%, he said.However, there's a bigger problem: Barraud's heavy-weight clients, which include big banks, hedge funds, and pension funds, are increasingly asking him about the trajectory of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76S3iMfcZE8">ballooning US deficit</a>. At the center of that concern is how big the deficit can get if Trump is elected and implements tax cuts resulting in US revenue shortfalls and how it could impact the 10-year.For that, he has a few modeled projections. In the case of a Trump win, he expects an initial shock jump on the 10-year yield to at least 4.5% based on where yields are today, near 4.23%. If he doesn't get a majority in Congress, then longer term, the yield could move an additional 15 basis points to 4.35%, again based on where yields are today. If there's a Republican sweep, then it would be followed by a gradual move up to 5% as investors seek a higher risk premium. This would be especially the case if he cuts immigration in a healthy labor market, causing further inflation.The 10-year yield last traded at 5% a year ago and in 2007 before then. If Harris wins with a dividend Congress, yields could drop further from where they are, he said. This is because the market has already priced in a Republican win. So firstly, it would correct down, he added.But what makes Barraud so sure about his predictions, even when his track record is taken into account? His secret sauce isn't in his personal opinion or high-level perspective. When asked "why" something is expected to shift, he laughs and says it's the model's output.Like a quant trader, Barraud's calculations are built on a three-step methodology that involves collecting the latest and greatest economic, financial, and satellite data, determining key signals based on backtests, and then merging input from additional models to challenge the projections, expose risks, and tighten output. This time, election forecasting includes monitoring multiple poll-betting markets with the highest volume of users to gauge election outcomes.

The world's most accurate economist predicts the election outcome and its potential shock impact on the 10-year Treasury

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Prediction markets swung in favor of Trump in the weeks before his victory, as polls showed a virtual tie.</li><li>Proponents point to a number of factors that make betting markets more accurate.</li></ul>In the weeks before Donald Trump's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">victory</a>, polling showed the former president locked in a dead heat with Vice President Kamala Harris.Prediction markets, though, told a different story.Trump started showing a solid lead on betting markets like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi in mid-October, and those odds mostly rose in the weeks before Election Day.The odds slightly narrowed in the few days before, but by the time the first major polls closed at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday evening, the markets showed around 60% odds for Trump.They reacted quickly amid a slew of outcomes from individual states, and by 1:30 AM on Wednesday, they predicted over 98% chances of a Trump win, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://electionbettingodds.com/">Election Betting Odds</a> tool.That was still hours before major news outlets called the electionPrediction site founders and researchers have long argued that betting markets are <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-harris-prediction-markets-polls-presidential-election-polymarket-024-8">more accurate</a> than traditional polling. This week was the biggest demonstration to back up that claim."They've always been accurate. They just got a lot more interest now," Tarek Mansour, cofounder of prediction market Kalshi, told Business Insider. Kalshi is the only betting site for US users to wager on political races.Kalshi saw a huge influx of traffic the night of the election, with 123 million site views in the 24 hours before the race was officially called, he said.Those numbers point to a growing sense of trust in betting markets among voters, which will help platforms like Kalshi gain mainstream prominence, Mansour says."I don't think we're going back. I think this is the dawn of a new era for prediction markets, and prediction markets are <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/betting-us-election-cftc-kalshi-legal-battle-prediction-market-2024-10">here to stay</a>," Mansour said. "People are not going to go back to mainstream news and polls after this. Prediction markets are basically the ultimate thing that people are going to look at now," he added.<h2 id="aeac655c-0116-44aa-bc09-718b02b02101">Why betting markets got it right</h2>Betting experts say prediction markets have a few key advantages over polls, and much of it comes down to the motivation behind the participants: rather than asking who a voter wants to win, prediction markets ask who they think will win.Putting money on the line—potentially tens of millions in the case of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-trump-vs-harris-betting-odds-polls-election-2024-10">one French trader</a>—means participants have to be very confident in their prediction. That means those with high conviction and potentially better information are especially drawn to the sites.If a trader is willing to put so much money down, they must have a particularly high conviction in their bet and could be based on information that isn't publicly available, or simply on keen observer of the latest development, Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane told BI.Experts also point to prediction markets' ability to respond to new developments in real time, which proved especially powerful this year given a number of extremely influential events, according to Northwestern University's Thomas Miller.Miller, who runs election forecasting model <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://virtualtout.com/news-log/2024-11-05/">The Virtual Tout</a>, points to particularly big swings after President Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris, plus two assassination attempts against Trump.He says markets responded immediately while polls lagged."Prediction markets can be volatile. They can be responsive to current and campaign events. They do move, and they can move significantly. This election is an extreme case of that," Miller said.Others also point to the huge volumes traded on this election cycle, and say that prediction markets will only become more accurate with more volume.Crane says that if the CFTC's strict regulations on betting markets allow for more US participation, that will increase volume, making it less likely that any attempts at market manipulation will actually work."I think that no limitations is actually the way to go if we want to have better, cleaner, more accurate markets," Crane told BI in a previous interview.Prediction market proponents say the failure of polling will likely pressure pollsters to get better in coming election cycles."Prediction markets are basically the ultimate thing that people are going to look at now," Mansour said, adding, "It's going to put pressure on the polls. Polls have to get better, otherwise people are not going to trust them," Mansour said.If they don't improve, the betting markets could replace them entirely, he predicted.Others, though, are skeptical even after the latest election.Davide Accomazzo, a finance professor at Pepperdine Graziadio Business School, says the election's final result remained within the margins of error of traditional polls, showing they weren't necessarily inaccurate but in need of refining."The ultimate result wasn't outside the statistical margin of error that the polls have indicated. What is interesting, however, is that every single margin of error went in favor of Trump. So that obviously tells you that there was something fundamentally wrong, given the construction of these traditional polls," he said, adding that could underscore a mistake in underestimating a non-traditional candidate.

Betting markets nailed Trump's decisive win — and it's a good reminder they can be more accurate than polls

Perth: (The Conversation) Last week, three tiny Australian satellites from Curtin University's <keyword id="23932163" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Binar-Space-Program" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Binar Space Program" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Binar Space Program">Binar Space Program</keyword> burned up in Earth's atmosphere. That was always going to happen. In fact, Binar means "fireball" in the Noongar language of the First Nations people of Perth. When a satellite is in low Earth orbit (2,000km or less), it experiences orbital decay as it drags closer and closer to the surface, eventually burning up. But these cube satellites (<keyword id="21533654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CubeSats" source="keywords">CubeSats</keyword>), known as Binar-2, 3 and 4, entered the atmosphere much sooner than originally planned. They only lasted for two months - a third of what was expected. This significantly reduced valuable time for science and testing new systems. The reason for their untimely demise? Our Sun has kicked into high gear, and the Binar satellites are far from the only casualty. Recent high <keyword id="20792842" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Solar-activity" source="keywords">solar activity</keyword> has been causing an unexpected headache for satellite operators in the last few years, and it's only increasing. <h2>Why is the Sun so active? </h2> Solar activity includes phenomena such as sunspots, solar flares and solar wind - the stream of charged particles that flows toward Earth. This activity is a product of the Sun's ever-changing magnetic field, and approximately every 11 years, it completely flips. At the midpoint of this cycle, solar activity is at its highest. While this cycle is known, specific solar activity is challenging to predict - the dynamics are complex and solar forecasting is in its infancy. In the last few months, indicators of solar activity were more than one and a half times higher than predictions for this point in the current cycle, labelled <keyword id="22712826" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="solar-cycle-25" source="keywords">solar cycle 25</keyword>. <h2>The impact of <keyword id="20087207" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="space-weather" source="keywords">space weather</keyword> </h2> Space weather refers to the environmental effects that originate from outside our atmosphere (mostly the Sun). It affects us on Earth in a variety of noticeable and unnoticeable ways. The most obvious is the presence of auroras. In the past few months, auroras have been visible far more intensely and closer to the equator than in the last two decades. This is a direct result of the increased solar activity. Space weather, and solar activity in particular, also creates additional challenges for satellites and satellite operators. Higher solar activity means more solar flares and stronger solar wind - resulting in a higher flux of charged particles that can damage or disrupt electrical components on satellites. It also means an increase in ionising radiation, resulting in a higher dose for astronauts and pilots, and potential disruptions to long-distance radio communications. But for satellites in low Earth orbit, the most consistent effect of solar activity is that the extra energy gets absorbed into the outer atmosphere, causing it to balloon outward. As a result, all satellites less than 1,000km from Earth experience a significant increase in <keyword id="23473319" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="atmospheric-drag" source="keywords">atmospheric drag</keyword>. This is a force that disrupts their orbit and causes them to fall towards the planet's surface. Notable satellites in this region include the International Space Station and the Starlink constellation. These satellites have thrusters to counteract this effect, but these corrections can be expensive. Low Earth orbit also contains many university satellites, such as the Binar CubeSats. Cube satellites are rarely equipped with tools that can adjust their altitude, so they're entirely at the mercy of space weather. <h2>What happened to Binar? </h2> The Binar Space Program is a satellite research program operating out of Curtin University. It aims to advance our understanding of the Solar System and lower the barrier for operating in space. The program began operations with its first satellite, Binar-1, in September 2021. This was less than a year into solar cycle 25 when solar activity was relatively low. In these conditions, the ten-centimetre cube satellite started at an altitude of 420km and survived a full 364 days in orbit. The program's follow-up mission - Binar-2, 3, and 4 - were three equally sized CubeSats. However, they were expected to last approximately six months owing to the extra surface area from new deployable solar arrays and a forecast increase in solar activity. Instead, they only made it to two months before burning up. While cube satellite missions are relatively cheap, the premature ending of a mission will always be costly. This is even more true for commercial satellites, highlighting the need for more accurate space weather forecasting. The good news is the Sun will calm down again. Despite the current unexpectedly high solar activity, it will likely slow down by 2026, and is expected to return to a solar minimum in 2030. While this was not an explicit goal of the mission, the Binar Space Program has now poignantly demonstrated the dramatic effects of solar activity on space operations. While the untimely loss of Binar-2, 3 and 4 was unfortunate, work has already begun on future missions. They are expected to launch into far more forgiving space weather. (The Conversation).

Right now, the Sun is far more active than predicted - and small satellites are paying the price

<ul class="summary-list"><li>History professor Allan Lichtman said he was doxxed after wrongly predicting the election results.</li><li>Lichtman, who has accurately predicted nine elections to date, called a Harris win in September.</li></ul>Allan Lichtman, the history professor who correctly predicted nine of the last 11 presidential elections, said he's received death threats after wrongly predicting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">2024's results</a>.Lichtman <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-will-win-2024-election-predicting-historian-2024-9">predicted a win for Vice President Kamala Harris</a> over her opponent, former President Donald Trump, in September. "We've faced death threats, doxxing, swatting and intimidation at our doorstep. We will not be bullied. Federal law enforcement is now alerted," he wrote in an X post on Saturday.In a statement to BI, the American University professor said that the threats came through email and social media."There were two attempts to breach our home," Lichtman told BI.Lichtman said that no one had been hurt, adding that the police had responded to the break-in attempts.Representatives for the Washington, DC Metropolitan Police Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.In a podcast uploaded to his YouTube channel on Friday, Lichtman said he thought the hate mail he was getting from the wrong prediction was "vulgar" and "mindless.""I admit I was wrong. I called a Harris win and she didn't win," he said on the YouTube stream."But I was far, far from the only forecaster to be wrong. Most other models were wrong," Lichtman added.Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" prediction model consists of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.american.edu/cas/news/13-keys-to-the-white-house.cfm">13 true-or-false questions</a>. He said in a September interview with The New York Times that eight of the 13 keys were in Harris' favor.In 2016, he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/professor-predicts-trump-will-win-2016-9">correctly predicted</a> that Trump would win the election.The Republican candidate cruised to victory last week, clinching his second term in office with 312 electoral votes against Harris' 226.

A history professor who accurately predicted 9 of the last 11 elections said he got death threats after getting his 2024 race bet wrong

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Prediction markets can be more accurate than polling when it comes to elections, a professor told Business Insider.</li><li>There's over $606 million wagered on the 2024 election on Polymarket, favoring a Harris win.</li></ul>When trying to figure out the outcome of an election, most look at polling, expert takes, or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-presidential-election-prediction-winner-donald-trump-kamala-harris-2024-8">even the stock market</a>. However, prediction markets, which allow bettors to wager on the outcome of events, may be the most accurate way of calling the result ahead of November 5. They've successfully forecast the last few presidential cycles and even predicted President Joe Biden would drop out weeks in advance.While they're not without their misses — they were notably wrong during the 2022 midterm elections, and after Biden won the 2020 election — Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane says prediction markets are historically more accurate than traditional polling. In the past month, a series of election-related events—an attempted assassination against Trump, President Joe Biden stepping down and endorsing Kamala Harris, and both candidates picking their running mates—have adjusted polling considerably.Yet Crane says these adjustments are often reflected in prediction markets more quickly.Polymarket, a crypto-based betting market, predicted a 70% chance President Joe Biden would drop out of the race this year as far back as July 4, two weeks before he actually bowed out."It's an event-driven market. So the past month has been very active because events have occurred that are of extreme significance," Crane said.And the markets will likely get even quicker at factoring in new information on election night in November.As vote totals, exit polls, and absentee ballots come in, prediction markets "move pretty significantly and pretty quickly in response to that information," he said.<h2 id="7dc81ce7-8b15-46b0-8923-323c06d08f5d">The user base is (literally) invested in the outcome</h2>There's a range of participants in betting markets, and most are making highly informed wagers, Crane said.There are recreational bettors who may just have an interest in whatever topic is up for debate, as well as professional bettors and betting syndicates whose livelihoods are at stake. There are also companies looking to hedge risk if they may be affected by candidates' proposed policies. With <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1723813625985">$606.5 million</a> riding on the election outcome on Polymarket alone, participants watch the news closely, Crane said. Even if they aren't based in the US, they are just as clued into election updates since their money is on the line.He likens it to sports betting: "I don't need to be a professional football player to know how to understand what's going to happen in a football game. And in fact, I could be better at it than players in the game from a betting or informational perspective," he said.<h2 id="fb2c38a6-7896-42bc-9923-760bf527f3ee">Higher participation could boost accuracy</h2>Crane says that prediction markets could become even more accurate— and avoid any potential risk of manipulation by political groups —if they are fully legalized in the US.The most popular prediction markets are largely unavailable to US participants. US-based users can't bet on Polymarket, and Betfair, one of the longest-running events markets, is only available in some US states.PredictIt, a project founded by researchers in New Zealand, has operated in the US under a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission since 2014, but limits American bettors to up to $850 in wagers, and only 5,000 betters can participate in each market.PredictIt is facing headwinds from the CFTC, which is looking to outlaw all election betting. If passed, Americans wouldn't be legally allowed to participate in any prediction markets, though some may try using VPNs to bypass regulations, which likely occurs now.Crane also said more participation would make manipulation less likely.While there's no hard evidence, he guesses that political bets may be especially prone to attempts at manipulation or influence. "Everything kind of feeds off of everything else, and by trying to limit one aspect of it, or trying to police one aspect of it, it can often ruin the entire market function," Crane said."I think that no limitations is actually the way to go if we want to have better, cleaner, more accurate markets."

Why prediction markets can be more accurate than polls at predicting election results

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Insider is seeking nominations for its 2023 Oracles of Wall Street list.</li><li>Nominees can be strategists, economists, or analysts with calls that are published and verifiable.</li></ul>Like most years, 2023 has been full of milestones and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-recession-start-2023-bank-of-america-forecasts-2023-8">surprises in financial markets</a>. Many <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-outlook-wall-street-central-bank-economy-recession-2023-10">forecasters</a> have eaten humble pie, thanks to the much-anticipated <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/will-there-be-a-recession-federal-reserve-no-longer-predicts-2023-7">recession</a> that did not arrive, the jump in interest rates, the stock market's resilience, and other narrative-defying events.But do you know an analyst, strategist, or economist who's nailed their forecasts in 2023? Do you identify as one? We'd like to hear from you.Insider is seeking nominations for our 2023 Oracles of Wall Street list, which will highlight this year's top financial and economic visionaries.<h2><a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSedksCe1nSksaLTLyAczdvxrbxNhow7AFiu6MNb_b7VWdMKzg/viewform?usp=sf_link" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nominations can be made through this form and below.</a></h2>Nominees can be financial professionals from firms of any size. Their calls from early 2023 or late 2022 must be verifiable through published documents or media coverage.Some examples of the types of calls we're looking for include: how the S&amp;P 500 has performed; where 10-year Treasury yields have gone; how inflation has trended; how the labor market has performed; where national home prices have gone; the performance of a single stock; a major M&amp;A transaction; how the economy has fared this year; and more. The deadline for <a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSedksCe1nSksaLTLyAczdvxrbxNhow7AFiu6MNb_b7VWdMKzg/viewform?usp=sf_link" target="_blank" rel="noopener">submissions</a> is November 7, 2023. Please direct any questions to William Edwards at wedwards@insider.com.

The most accurate forecasts of 2023: Seeking nominations for Insider's Oracles of Wall Street list

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Market Securities' Christophe Barraud was named the top economic forecaster by Bloomberg.</li><li>He has been one of the best in the world at predicting what happens to the economy for years.</li></ul>It hasn't been easy to anticipate the economy's moves lately. The last four years alone have brought enough twists and turns to fill an economics textbook: a pandemic, supply-chain snafus, inflation, easy then restrictive monetary policies, and much more.But throughout all that, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-investing-risks-us-economy-forecasts-christophe-barraud-2020-1">Christophe Barraud</a> somehow managed to stay one step ahead. Bloomberg ranked Barraud as the top forecaster of the US economy in 2022 and 2023 — and every year from 2012 through 2020. He was also the top forecaster of the Eurozone economy in 2022, and of China's economy from 2017 through 2020.If economic predictions are more art than science, Barraud is Picasso. The chief economist and strategist at Market Securities is looking to continue his hot streak of correct calls in 2024. He recently discussed with Business Insider his forecast for the US economy and how investors should approach the new year.<h2>The US economy will hold up better than expected</h2>Optimism abounded at the end of 2023 as market watchers realized that bad economic readings at the end of the year were good news for the Federal Reserve's efforts to beat <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/what-is-inflation">inflation</a>. Optimism abated in the first weeks of the new year, however, as investors came to terms with the fact that the Fed may not ease monetary policy anytime soon.Barraud was never as optimistic as some, even last year. "I was surprised by the resilience of the US economy because, at the beginning of 2023, I was expecting some kind of recession," he said. "At some point, it seems that the US economy was stronger than expected, especially in the third quarter. It was partly explained by transitory factors, but overall, if you just look at what happened in the fourth quarter, of course consumption slowed a bit, but it should remain quite strong and quite in line with the historical standard."Barraud believes that US GDP will end the year up 2.5%, slightly higher than the consensus expectation of 2.4%.That's not to say it will be an easy road. As Barraud pointed out, savings have dwindled, student loan payments have restarted, wages are normalizing, and credit is still tight.He's also wary of any exogenous shocks to the US economy. Barraud agrees with surveys that show geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, represent the biggest threat to the global economy."To be honest, right now it's the political situation and the Middle East situation because it evolves quite quickly and the reality is that people are not able to forecast this kind of thing usually; everyone is surprised by that," he said of the biggest threats to the economy.But if all goes well, Barraud anticipates that investor optimism that the Fed has beaten inflation will be rewarded with a pivot in monetary policy sometime this year — just not as soon as investors may want."I won't say that the battle against inflation is over, but if there is no exogenous shock, the central scenario is to see a CPI between 2% and 2.5% around the third quarter," Barraud said.As for when the Fed may cut rates: "My guess is that they are more likely to do it in May," he said. "I think March is a bit early, especially if you look at recent comments from several policymakers. March is not excluded, but it will imply some significant deterioration of the labor market, which I don't expect right now."But the story is different in the Eurozone, Barraud noted, which will have to continue the fight against inflation for a little longer than the US. He doesn't think the ECB will be able to cut rates until June at the earliest — and that could provide investors with an arbitrage opportunity."Based on the fact that the ECB is likely to cut rates after the Fed, that maybe they will keep lowering their balance sheet and not announce the end of quantitative tightening like the Fed, we will see some kind of rate differential supporting the euro against USD, maybe a balance sheet differential that could also support the euro," Barraud said. "And that's why I think that maybe the euro could clearly outperform USD in at least in the short term, but maybe for all of the year.""But we don't need to see some kind of geopolitical shock," he added. "That's a key risk. Otherwise, people will return to USD as a safe haven."

The world's most accurate economist told us his forecasts for the US economy in 2024, the biggest risks he's watching, and a trade to take advantage of

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Multiple <keyword id="19899232" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="disney" source="keywords">Disney</keyword> World employees told BI about their disappointment with how the company handled Milton.</li><li>Cash-strapped employees felt pressured to work well into the afternoon as weather forecasts looked increasingly dire.</li></ul>Rain began falling over Orlando early Wednesday morning as Hurricane Milton barreled toward the Sunshine State. Forecasts predicted violent winds, flash flooding, and tornadoes to reach the region by late afternoon. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-disney-parks-top-destinations-millennials-gen-z-2023-9#:~:text=Child%2Dfree%20millennials%20and%20Gen,Disney%20adults'%20on%20the%20parks.">The Walt Disney World Resort</a> was still open for business. "Everyone was in a rush to get out of there, and it was scary not knowing how the weather was going to be on the ride home," a parks worker told Business Insider. BI spoke to four employees who work in the various parks at Disney World. They expressed their disappointment with how the company managed scheduling, logistics, and safety precautions in the hours leading up to Hurricane Milton's arrival, from refusing to cancel work as weather conditions worsened to engaging in what sources described as infrequent communication that left employees feeling like they were flying blind. These workers — called "cast members" — requested their names and roles remain anonymous, citing fears of possible reprisals from Disney. Their identities are known to BI. Shutdowns are costly: Before the storm, Goldman Sachs <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/08/hurrican-milton-could-hit-disney-earnings-goldman-says.html">estimated</a> the hurricane could cost Disney's lucrative parks division up to $200 million. The company also had to balance workers' well-being with serving eager guests who pay thousands for what can be once-in-a-lifetime experiences. <h2>Workers stayed well into the afternoon to close things up</h2>Disney closed its four parks early on Wednesday due to the storm. Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom closed at 1 p.m. for guests, and Magic Kingdom and <keyword id="23582995" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="epcot" source="keywords">Epcot</keyword> closed at 2 p.m. Even before closing, though, the parks started to feel like wet and rainy ghost towns, cast members told BI. Attendance at Magic Kingdom, the park best known for its storybook castle, dwindled to roughly 10%, the first employee estimated. "I wish the park wouldn't have opened up for the day at all," the employee added. Still, workers told BI that staff were expected to stay on hand through and after closing to help batten down the hatches, which left some feeling unsettled and unsafe. By around 2:45 p.m., when one of the workers said they left, the weather in Orange County, where Disney World is located, was worsening. A tornado warning would be issued for southeastern Orange County at 3:22 p.m. and another for south central Orange County at 4:28 p.m. In addition to those who spoke with BI, people who identified themselves as Disney parks workers took to social media, posting on TikTok and X, voicing similar complaints and sharing what it was like working in a mostly-empty amusement park as the tempest closed in. In a statement, a Walt Disney World spokesperson said the company prioritizes the well-being of those on park grounds. "Safety is always our first and most important factor when making decisions that will affect our cast members and guests," the statement read, "and throughout the storm, we provided frequent and timely updates on our changes to make sure they returned home hours before the worst of the weather reached Central Florida." <h2>Workers faced a dilemma</h2>To look after stranded guests, Disney runs a special "ride-out" program, where staffers collect slightly extra pay than the norm by volunteering to work <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/family-weathered-hurricane-milton-at-disney-hotel-2024-10">hotel</a> duty during a storm. The Disney spokesperson said that roughly 5,000 cast members in Florida volunteered to work ride-out shifts. But parks workers who spoke to BI pointed out that ride-out shifts happen when workers put their hands up to complete them, and come with a room where employees can sleep during a storm. That's different from the shifts that cast members worked. Some cash-strapped employees felt like they couldn't afford the luxury of skipping out on a chunk of their pay, sources said. At Disney World, workers' minimum wage starts at $18 an hour. On Wednesday, some employees faced a dilemma: Work until their managers told them their shift was done, even if it meant staying in the face of dire weather forecasts, or leave early but accept fractional pay only for the hours they worked. "They were like, 'We need our money. We want our money,'" recalled the first parks worker, who completed a full shift and only learned about the pay reductions by reading an explanation of the policy that someone had scrawled on a board backstage. Those who stayed a full shift said they wished they'd had more time to get gas and groceries before the storm came ashore. The Disney spokesperson said gas stations were open on the property specifically for cast members, but three of the parks employees who spoke to BI said they hadn't heard of such a service. "No one I know knew anything about that," said a second employee, adding, "I tried to get gas on property on Tuesday and was unable to," since the pump was empty. Disney also closed several hotels — including Fort Wilderness Resort &amp; Campground, the Copper Creek Cabins at Disney's Wilderness Lodge, and the Treehouse Villas at the Saratoga Springs Resort &amp; Spa — at 11 a.m. Wednesday. An employee at one of those properties said some managers instructed staffers to stay for another four hours, until 3 p.m,. to complete a full shift — even though, by midday, the rain was coming down hard, and there was almost nothing to do on the job. <h2>Back to work</h2>While Disney's parks remained closed to guests Thursday, BI viewed a screenshot of an internal communication showing that the company expected some workers to participate in Thursday's clean-up efforts. "After the storm, we may need Cast to help with post-storm recovery efforts," read the message, which was posted on Cast Life, an app Disney uses to share mass updates with staffers. "Cast scheduled to work on Oct. 10 — even in areas that will not be opening to Guests — should continue to call local area <keyword id="23582996" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cast-hotlines" source="keywords">Cast Hotlines</keyword> and check their schedule on Disney Cast Life Web / App for information regarding their schedule." "The fact that they not only expect me to call but potentially go out in the parks to clean up is crazy," the second Disney employee said, adding: "It's sickening." Ultimately, this person elected not to go in on Thursday, regardless of whether they would face consequences. "I don't feel safe driving at 7 a.m. tomorrow when this is all over," they said on Wednesday evening. "Orlando is just unique because, yes, we are inland, but we see scary rain and terrifying winds. And just because we aren't washed away and dealing with storm surge and structural damage doesn't mean it isn't scary." When asked whether they could call the Disney coordinators to request an excuse from work, sources said it wasn't that simple. Employees with unexcused absences have historically been slapped with "points," or demerits on their records, they noted. A proliferation of points can lead to a reprimand and, ultimately, the potential to be fired. "Your house could be underwater, and they would be like, 'Well, call out and take the point,'" the second Disney employee said, recalling past hurricanes when cast members stressed about how they'd get to work. With 80,000 staffers, the Disney World Resort is one of the largest single-site employers in the United States. It's the crown jewel of the Disney empire, which generated $5.8 billion across its domestic parks and cruises in the three months ending June 29. Are you a Disney employee with a story to share? Contact this reporter. <keyword id="23582993" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reed-alexander" source="keywords">Reed Alexander</keyword> can be reached via email at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:ralexander@businessinsider.com">ralexander@businessinsider.com</a>, or SMS/the encrypted app Signal at (561) 247-5758. Correction: October 11, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated when Orange County was under a tornado warning. Parts of Orange County were under a tornado warning at 3:22 p.m. and 4:28 p.m. on October 9.

Disney World employees felt pressured to stay and work despite forecasts of looming tornadoes and flash floods in the hours leading up to Hurricane Milton

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Deepmind's GraphCast AI can produce an accurate 10-day weather forecast in under a minute.</li><li>The Google-owned company's AI model is the first that can outperform conventional forecasters.</li></ul>New research has shown that an AI model developed by Google-owned Deepmind has outperformed traditional weather forecasters for the first time.The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi2336">peer-reviewed study</a>, published in the journal Science, said that Deepmind's GraphCast AI model "significantly outperformed" the conventional system for predicting the weather, which is run by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast.The AI model can produce an accurate 10-day forecast in under a minute and represents "a turning point in weather forecasting," according to the paper."Weather prediction is one of the most challenging problems that humanity has been working on for a long, long time," Pushmeet Kohli, Deepmind's VP of research, told Business Insider."If you look at what has happened in the last few years with climate change, this is an incredibly important problem," he said.GraphCast is trained on 39 years of historical weather data from the ECMWF. According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/ca5d655f-d684-4dec-8daa-1c58b0674be1">the Financial Times</a>, the research showed that GraphCast's three to 10 day weather predictions were more accurate than conventional forecasts. But Deepmind warned that the model did have some limitations compared to non-AI forecasts when dealing with the uncertainty inherent in longer-term weather forecasts.Speaking to the FT, the architects of the project said that GraphCast had been able to predict where Hurricane Lee, a powerful storm that hit North America earlier this year, would make landfall three days before traditional forecasters.ECMWF machine learning specialist Matthew Chantry told Insider that GraphCast represented "a significant and welcome step forward" for the industry.He told the FT that once trained on a wider variety of historical data, models such as GraphCast would prove to be much cheaper than current weather forecasting methods, which rely on powerful (and expensive) supercomputers."We might be talking about 1,000 times cheaper in terms of energy consumption," he said. "That is a miraculous improvement."

Deepmind's new AI could help forecast extreme weather faster

<ul class="summary-list"><li>An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession since 1969. </li><li>The inventor of the famed indicator said it is accurately predicting a downturn this year. </li></ul>Wall Street has ramped up its soft-landing calls for 2024, but a renowned economic expert who popularized the most famous recession indicator in markets says to <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-recession-outlook-economy-bear-investors-consumer-finance-credit-2024-1">expect a downturn</a> this year. Campbell Harvey is a Canadian economist and researcher at Duke University whose work showed that, for decades, an inverted yield curve — that is, when short-term Treasury yields exceed the yield on longer-term government bonds — has preceded as US recession. Dating back to 1968, the indicator's predictive power is eight for eight, with zero false signals. Harvey told host Jack Farley on the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcD3mN8np9E&amp;ab_channel=BlockworksMacro" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Forward Guidance</a> podcast Thursday that given that yields inverted in the fall of 2022, this suggests a recession will happen in the first or second quarter of this year.He had predicted previously that the indicator may turn out to be wrong this time, given the strength in the labor market and other positive economic data. However, he's reversed that outlook. "I had some credibility in saying 'my model could be wrong' because it's my model," Harvey said. "Essentially I was saying it might be possible to dodge a recession, but this was really contingent on the Fed standing down — and this is one year ago — so standing down and not hiking rates any further. And that is not what happened."The Federal Reserve hiked rates 11 times in the 2022-2023 cycle, spiking its benchmark rate from near 0% to a range of 5.25%-5.50%. "As a result, I've kind of revised my opinion," he continued. "Given the circumstances, I think it is likely we do see much slower growth in 2024."He said the inverted yield curve, in one sense, is a self-fulfilling prophecy as it signals to companies and investors that a slowdown is looming, which then alters spending and business behavior and ultimately leads to less activity."It makes the yield curve causal," Harvey said. "This causality channel is much different than in the past."And the inversion itself also isn't the final call on a recession, as experts have noted that it is actually when the curve de-inverts and long-term yields again exceed those of short-term bonds that signals a downturn has arrived. Given its perfect track record, Harvey noted that the indicator is currently allowing firms to make smarter decisions in the current landscape and operate with more caution. Unlike the global financial crisis in 2008, he said companies are more strategic and managing risk, so he's hopeful that there won't be severe layoffs coming. "Indeed it could come to the point where the indicator could come to the point where the indicator just loses its ability to forecast," he said, "but I don't think we're there yet."

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