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<ul><li>Rating agency <keyword id="6423565" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="moody">Moody</keyword> downgraded its outlook from stable to negative. </li><li>The agency said that there is an increased probability of a more entrenched slowdown. </li><li>A deeper liquidity squeeze that threatened the solvency of some NBFIs could give rise to some fiscal costs, said Moody’s. </li></ul> A day after the short-lived euphoria caused by the Indian government’s ₹25,000 crore bailout package – it is hit by yet another downgrade. Moody’s rating agency changed its outlook on India to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’. Pun unintended, this must have turned the Prime Minister Narendra Modi moodier than he was. Yesterday, at an industrial summit in Himachal Pradesh, he was complaining that the real estate bailout package did not get the media coverage it deserved. It won’t help that Moody’s believes that the many measures being taken by the government including reducing corporate tax rate, bailout to shadow banks, merging large Indian banks --- won’t help the slowdown which is ‘deeply entrenched’. “While government measures to support the economy should help to reduce the depth and duration of India's growth slowdown, prolonged financial stress among rural households, weak job creation, and, more recently, a credit crunch among non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), have increased the probability of a more entrenched slowdown,” the agency said in its report. The finance ministry released a statement saying that IMF and other organizations have a positive outlook on the country. “The government has undertaken a series of financial sector and other reforms to strengthen the economy as a whole. Government of India has also taken policy decisions in response to the global slowdown. The measures would lead to a positive outlook on India and would attract capital flows and stimulate investment,” the statement said. But these many measures are what could alter India’s finances. The many bailout packages that India is rolling out to BSNL and MTNL, shadow banks and many others which are in deep crisis --- could also land the country in debt. Added to that, due to weak sentiment, the government’s plans to sell state-owned companies and make money --- is also not moving at the expected pace. “With the recently announced corporate tax cuts and lower nominal GDP growth, Moody's now expects a central government deficit of 3.7% of GDP in the fiscal year ending in March 2020. State deficits will likely be at or very close to the 3% of GDP cap. A deeper liquidity squeeze that threatened the solvency of some NBFIs could give rise to some fiscal costs from government support to some institutions,” said Moody’s report. At this juncture, the ability of the country to afford debt will also come down. It means India is slowly ending up where most of its companies are --- deep in debt, increased costs, weak credit ratings and unsold assets.

Moody's says India's tax cuts, realty rescue, and bailouts are not enough to beat the slowdown

<ul><li><keyword id="6462970" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Moodys">Moody's</keyword> downgraded <keyword id="50996" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Saudi-Arabia">Saudi Arabia</keyword>'s sovereign outlook to negative from stable <a href="https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-the-outlook-on-Saudi-Arabias-rating-to-negative--PR_423521">on Friday</a>, citing increased downside risks to the <keyword id="236732" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Kingdom">kingdom</keyword>'s fiscal strength from the <keyword id="6359072" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil">oil</keyword> rout. </li><li>"The government's balance sheet has weakened since the previous <keyword id="51471" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Oil-price">oil price</keyword> shock in 2015-16, notwithstanding some recent improvements in budget execution, leaving the sovereign's credit profile exposed to the further prolonged period of depressed oil prices that the pandemic may usher in," Moody's wrote. </li><li>Over the weekend, the <keyword id="53454" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Saudi">Saudi</keyword> <keyword id="25455" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="finance">finance</keyword> minister said the kingdom will take strict and painful measures to reduce its budget, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/coronavirus-oil-shock-saudi-arabia-gets-downgrade-painful-measures-ahead.html">CNBC reported</a>.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/">Read more on Business Insider</a>.</li></ul>The coronavirus pandemic has cratered global oil demand and sent prices plummeting, even <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/us-crude-oil-wti-falls-to-21-year-low-1029106364">into negative territory for the first time ever</a>. That's not a good thing for oil-rich Saudi Arabia. On Friday, Moody's downgraded Saudi Arabia's sovereign outlook to negative from stable, citing increased downside risks to the kingdom's fiscal strength from the oil rout. "The shock transmits mainly through the loss in government revenue and exports caused by the drop in oil demand and prices," a group of Moody's analysts led by Lucie Villa <a href="https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-the-outlook-on-Saudi-Arabias-rating-to-negative--PR_423521">wrote in a Friday report</a>.She continued: "The government's balance sheet has weakened since the previous oil price shock in 2015-16, notwithstanding some recent improvements in budget execution, leaving the sovereign's credit profile exposed to the further prolonged period of depressed oil prices that the pandemic may usher in."The coronavirus pandemic has created uncertainty in the global economic outlook and pushed many countries around the world into recession. Oil demand has also taken a significant hit as most nonessential travel has been banned, and consumers are driving less to maintain strict social-distancing measures. Moody's now expects that Saudi Arabia's government revenues will drop 33% in 2020 and 25% in 2021, according to the report. The decline is likely even after accounting for potentially higher dividends from state-owned entities, according to Moody's. Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-ackman-3-part-investing-strategy-why-loves-berkshire-hathaway-2020-5">Legendary billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman breaks down his 3-part investing methodology — and makes a case for 'a really cheap, interesting stock run by the best investor in the world'</a>A sharp decline in the country's gross domestic product growth will also depress revenue outside of oil, according to the report. Forecasts are calling for a GDP decline of as much as 3.2%, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/coronavirus-oil-shock-saudi-arabia-gets-downgrade-painful-measures-ahead.html">according to CNBC</a>. In the medium term, Moody's forecasts that debt will grow to around 45% of GDP.Over the weekend, the Saudi finance minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said that the country will have to take strict and painful measures amid the coronavirus crisis, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/coronavirus-oil-shock-saudi-arabia-gets-downgrade-painful-measures-ahead.html">according to CNBC</a>."We must reduce budget expenditures sharply," al-Jadaan told Al Arabiya TV on Saturday, CNBC reported. "Saudi finances need more discipline and the road ahead is long."Moody's affirmed Saudi Arabia's A1 rating, saying that it is "supported by the government's still relatively robust, albeit deteriorating, balance sheet, which is underpinned by a still-moderate debt level and substantial fiscal and external liquidity buffers."Read the original article on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-sovereign-outlook-downgraded-moodys-oil-prices-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-5">Business Insider</a>

Moody's cuts Saudi Arabia's credit outlook to negative, cites oil-price shock driven by coronavirus

Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday said it has withdrawn <keyword id="10924914" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="kalyan-jewellers-india-limited" source="Orion">Kalyan Jewellers India Limited</keyword>'s (KJIL) B2 long-term corporate family rating. The rating outlook prior to withdrawal was stable. "In view of the current market conditions, the company has pushed back its plans to access the international debt capital markets. Moody's has decided to withdraw the rating for its own business reasons," Moody's said. The Rs 9,056 crore revenue <keyword id="413856" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="kalyan-jewellers" source="Orion">Kalyan Jewellers</keyword> is the second-largest jewelry company in India. It also has operations in the <keyword id="30350" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="middle-east" source="Orion">Middle East</keyword>. The <keyword id="203261" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="kalyanaraman" source="Orion">Kalyanaraman</keyword> family (promoter family) and associated companies own 60.53 per cent of Kalyan Jewellers. <keyword id="15035127" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="highdell-investments-ltd" source="Orion">Highdell Investments Ltd</keyword>, an affiliate of private equity firm Warburg Pincus &amp; Company US LLC, has a direct stake of 26.36 per cent, said Moody's. SEE ALSO : <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sustainability/news/the-first-annual-breakthrough-agenda-reports-sets-out-priorities-to-rapidly-make-more-clean-technologies/articleshow/94321918.cms">The first annual breakthrough agenda reports sets out priorities to rapidly make more clean technologies</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/rally-in-banking-stocks-continue-as-credit-growth-picks-margins-get-a-boost/articleshow/94324519.cms">Rally in banking stocks continue as credit growth picks &amp; margins get a boost</a>

Moody's withdraws rating of Kalyan Jewellers

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Racial inequality is higher in the US than otherwise similarly rated countries, according to credit rating agency <a href="https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-US-racial-wealth-and-income-inequality-raises-sovereign-related--PBM_1237651">Moody's</a>. </li><li>A sovereign credit rating is an independent assessment of the creditworthiness of a country, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sovereign-credit-rating.asp#:~:text=A%20sovereign%20credit%20rating%20is,country%2C%20including%20any%20political%20risk.">per Investopedia</a>. </li><li>Inequality in the US is also increasing, the <a href="https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-US-racial-wealth-and-income-inequality-raises-sovereign-related--PBM_1237651">Moody's report found</a>. For example, the racial wealth gap between Black and white Americans has widened in recent years.</li><li>Increased political polarization stemming from inequality makes the country more susceptible to an "event risk," the agency reports, or an incident that would cause the markets to take a strong dip, and make US sovereign credit more risky.</li><li>On the other hand, addressing the racial wealth gap could boost the US economy by 4 to 6%, the report found.</li></ul>The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/fixing-racial-wealth-gap-will-take-more-than-financial-literacy-2020-7">wealth gap between Black and white Americans</a>, as well as other forms of racial inequality in the US, is trending upward. And that could pose a risk to the country's economy, per a <a href="https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-US-racial-wealth-and-income-inequality-raises-sovereign-related--PBM_1237651">recent report</a> from the credit rating agency <keyword id="6462970" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Moodys">Moody's</keyword>. In the face of economic changes in recent years, Blacks have fared worse than whites across the board, according to William Foster, Moody's vice president. "These trends include globalization of trade, capital and labor; displacement of labor through automation; rising educational requirements alongside highly uneven quality of schooling; and uneven access to credit," he said in an online statement. The average net worth of a white family grew 43%, to $61,200, between 1995 and 2016, while it stagnated for Black families at $35,400, the credit rating agency said, citing Federal Reserve data.Though US institutions "remain very strong," the report reads, "political polarization often associated with high inequality and social risks stemming from entrenched racial inequalities can raise a sovereign's susceptibility to event risk," the report reads. An event risk can loosely be defined as an incident that causes a dramatic dip to a country's financial markets, causing the country's sovereign credit rating to take a hit. Moody analysts said income and racial inequality are "potent forces" in the country that could further polarize US society. The report also found that addressing inequality, for example, addressing the racial wealth gap, would boost the country's economy. Citing McKinsey &amp; Co. data, Moody's states that reducing the racial wealth gap could raise the country's GDP by 4% to 6% by 2028 and lift GDP per capita by $4,300, <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-racial-wealth-gap-and-other-forms-of-inequality-limit-us-economic-strength-moodys-2020-07-16">MarketWatch reports</a>.At least <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-systemic-racism-in-charts-graphs-data-2020-6">26 other data points</a> Business Insider has looked at lately speak to how persasive racism is in American economic structures.

America's racial inequality is a risk to its credit rating, Moody's says

Moody's on Friday slashed <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>'s GDP growth projection to 7 per cent for 2022, saying that global slowdown and high domestic interest rates would dampen economic momentum. This is the second time in as many months that Moody's Investors Service has cut India's growth estimates for 2022. In September, it had cut the projection for the year to 7.7 per cent from 8.8 per cent pegged in May. "For India, the 2022 real GDP growth projections have been lowered to 7 per cent from 7.7 per cent. The downward revision assumes higher inflation, high-interest rates and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum by more than we had previously expected," said the Global Macro Outlook 2023-24. Moody's expects growth to decelerate to 4.8 per cent in 2023 and then to rise to 6.4 per cent in 2024. The Indian economy grew 8.5 per cent in the 2021 calendar year, according to Moody's. As per official GDP estimates, the economy expanded 13.5 per cent in April-June 2022-23, higher than the 4.10 per cent growth clocked in January-March. GDP figures for the September quarter would be released at the end of this month. Moody's said the weakening of the rupee and high oil prices continue to exert upward pressures on inflation, which has remained above the <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>'s tolerance level of 6 per cent for much of this year. Retail inflation increased to 7.41 per cent in September, while wholesale inflation remained in double-digit for the 18th straight month at 10.7 per cent. The central bank has hiked interest rates by 190 basis points between May and September to 5.90 per cent to contain inflation. Moody's expects the RBI to raise the repo rate by another 50 basis points or so as part of its objective to tame inflation and support the exchange rate. Eventually, the RBI will likely shift from inflation management to growth considerations, provided that the rate increase has the desired effect of taming inflation, it said. Moody's joins a host of agencies which have slashed India's economic growth projections for the current fiscal year (April-March) citing a slowdown in the global economy, the Russia-Ukraine war, rising interest rates and inflation. While the <keyword id="6354424" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="world-bank" source="Orion">World Bank</keyword> has revised down its growth estimate for India by 100 basis points to 6.5 per cent, IMF has trimmed it to 6.8 per cent from 7.4 per cent. The Asian Development Bank too has cut its projection to 7 per cent, from 7.5 per cent earlier. S&amp;P Global Ratings revised its growth forecast to 7.3 per cent for the current fiscal year from 8.7 per cent. The RBI expects economic growth at 7 per cent for this fiscal year. Moody's said the underlying growth dynamics are fundamentally strong, boosted by a rebound in services activity. Government capital expenditure and manufacturing capacity utilization have also improved. September exports are down from the peak in March, but they are still around 30 per cent above the pre-pandemic level. Non-food credit growth shows solid momentum, it said. The private sector is now well-positioned to increase capex spending. Also, the <keyword id="8940266" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="production-linked-incentive-scheme" source="Orion">Production Linked Incentive Scheme</keyword> to attract investment in 14 key manufacturing sectors is showing results, the rating agency noted. "While these domestic strengths will continue to support the domestic growth narrative, global financial tightening and slowing external demand will pose downward pressure on growth in 2023," Moody's said. It said several mitigating factors will support growth in large emerging market economies. Domestic pent-up demand will continue to support reopening momentum. Services activity has rebounded strongly in countries, including India. "With demand in G-7 (group of 7 developed nations) countries weakening, large domestically driven emerging economies such as India and Brazil will likely be less vulnerable to slowing trade growth than will export-oriented countries," it added. Moody's said the global economy is on the verge of a downturn amid extraordinarily high levels of uncertainty amid persistent inflation, monetary policy tightening, fiscal challenges, geopolitical shifts and financial market volatility. Global growth will slow in 2023 and remain sluggish in 2024. Still, a period of relative stability could emerge by 2024 if governments and central banks manage to navigate their economies through the current challenges, Moody's added. It projected the GDP growth of G-20 economies to decelerate to 1.3 per cent in 2023, significantly lower than its previous estimate of 2.1 per cent. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/medanta-hospitals-operator-global-health-to-announce-allotment-today-heres-how-you-can-check-allotment-status/articleshow/95436354.cms">Medanta Hospitals operator Global Health to announce allotment today, here’s how you can check allotment status</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/cryptocurrency/news/crypto-exchange-coinbase-to-lay-off-more-employees-amid-ftx-saga/articleshow/95444070.cms">Crypto exchange Coinbase to lay off more employees amid FTX saga</a>

Moody's cuts India's growth projection for 2022 to 7% on global slowdown, rising rates

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's <keyword id="11965227" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="credit" source="Orion">credit</keyword> ratings were downgraded to 'junk' by <keyword id="12116920" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="moodys" source="Orion">Moody's</keyword> and <keyword id="12268369" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="fitch" source="Orion">Fitch</keyword> on Thursday.</li><li>Moody's and Fitch both downgraded Russia 6 notches following S&amp;P move earlier in the week</li></ul>Russia's credit ratings were downgraded to junk by Moody's Investors Service and <keyword id="12224692" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="fitch-ratings" source="Orion">Fitch Ratings</keyword> Thursday, underlining the <keyword id="12095971" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="economic" source="Orion">economic</keyword> risk to the country from the sanctions imposed by Western powers after it attacked Ukraine.Both agencies reduced their ratings for Russia's credit by six notches, signaling they see a high risk of a default. Moody's now puts Russia at B3, from Baa3 previously, and Fitch went to a single-B rating from BBB — an adjustment from ratings that were already low grade."The multi-notch downgrade of Russia's ratings and maintaining the review for further downgrade were triggered by the severe sanctions that Western countries have imposed on Russia, including the sanctioning of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and some large financial institutions," Moody's said in a statement.The US and its allies have imposed increasingly tougher sanctions on Russia since its troops attacked Ukraine a week ago, aimed at hampering its trade and financial capacities."The severity of international sanctions in response to Russia's military invasion of Ukraine has heightened macro-financial stability risks, represents a huge shock to Russia's credit fundamentals and could undermine its willingness to service government <keyword id="12012706" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="debt" source="Orion">debt</keyword>," Fitch said in a <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-russia-to-b-on-rating-watch-negative-02-03-2022">statement</a>.The US has brought in restrictive measures to prevent the Russian Central Bank's ability to use its international currency reserves in ways that undermine the impact of sanctions.At the weekend, Western allies <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-eu-announce-some-russian-banks-removed-from-swift-2022-2">disconnected selected Russian banks from SWIFT</a>, the key messaging network that underpins the global payments system. The country's biggest bank, Sberbank, closed its European arm Wednesday after the European Central Bank said it was headed for failure."We now anticipate widening of these measures to other banks, limiting such mitigants, with large costs through severe short-term disruptions and more lasting constraints to the efficiency of executing transactions." Fitch said.<div type="image" title="Moody's Debt Ratings Scale" height="614" width="708" msid="89973946" hostid="261"></div>A contributing factor in the downgrade was the heightened risk of disruption to sovereign debt repayments, Moody's said. For Fitch, the key rating drivers included the likelihood of lower GDP growth and increased volatility due to the ongoing sanctions and the ruble's rapid depreciation.Russia's currency, the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/rub-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">ruble,</a> has been in free-fall since the invasion, and Moscow's stock exchange was shuttered for a fourth straight day Thursday. International investors have fled Russian assets, and multinationals have dropped their Russia-related investments. The Moody's and Fitch downratings mean all three top ratings agencies see Russian credit as junk, after S&amp;P Global Ratings cut its rating last week, as the invasion of Ukraine began.Further US sanctions targeting Russian oligarchs and their companies are in the works, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters. On Wednesday, President Joe Biden said "nothing is off the table" when asked whether the US would ban Russian oil and gas imports.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-recession-outlook-risks-bear-market-crash-stocks-inflation-2022-3?r=US&amp;IR=T" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Meet the 7 market experts that are sounding the alarm on the threat of a recession in 2022. Here's why they think it might happen — and the 3 market bulls who say the worries are overblown</a>

Russia's credit rating is cut to 'junk' by Moody's and Fitch as sanctions threaten to crush the country's economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Commercial aviation will be ravaged by the <keyword id="8763838" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="covid-19">COVID-19</keyword> pandemic for years to come, according to a new report from <keyword id="6462970" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Moodys">Moody's</keyword>.</li><li>Every stakeholder, from <keyword id="44023" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="airlines">airlines</keyword> and airports, to plane lessors, plane manufacturers, and parts suppliers, will be squeezed, with effects rippling across the entire global economy.</li><li>In a best-case scenario, Moody's sees a recovery by the end of 2023, but said that it's looking more and more likely that it will take longer.</li></ul>The commercial aviation industry will continue to be devastated by the <keyword id="1754604" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="coronavirus">coronavirus</keyword> pandemic for years to come, according to a new report from Moody's. The ripple effects will likely be felt across the entire global economy.According to the report, the effect on stakeholders throughout the aviation business — from airport operators and aircraft leasing companies, to plane-makers and their suppliers — will shake up the industry well into 2022, and likely beyond."And the outsourcing by airlines of many services, along with the significance of their employment rolls and consumption of refined petroleum in normal economic times, supports economic activity across many sectors of the global economy," the analysts, led by Moody's senior vice president Jonathan Root, wrote in the report.According to the report, the main factor in the recovery will be sustained passenger demand. As that improves, airlines and airports will start to recover, followed by aircraft lessors as demand continues to climb and airlines need more aircraft to carry passengers. Aircraft manufacturers will follow, while component suppliers will be the last direct stakeholder to recover, but Moody's says that won't happen before 2023, at the soonest.The forecast is built on the assumption that passenger demand will recover to 2019 levels — the benchmark for a recovery — by the end of 2023, contingent on the production and distribution of effective COVID-19 vaccines or treatments.However, Moody's warned that it is also modeling the possibility of a slower recovery — and that such a scenario is looking more possible in recent weeks."Recent experience of increasing rates of infection concurrent with loosening social distancing and quarantine protocols indicates that passenger demand will likely align more with our slower recovery case," the report said, "as social distancing and quarantine protocols are more likely to be maintained and/or revert to more restrictive mandates as infection rates rise again."The forecast aligns with the timeframe that analysts and industry experts began to acknowledge by late-April, with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airline-industry-after-coronvirus-when-will-it-recover-bankruptcy-layoffs-2020-4">most citing a three-to-five-year recovery timeframe for the airline industry</a>. The expansion on that forecast demonstrates that despite optimism over a brief, modest recovery in May and June, the aviation industry's outlook remains bleak.The good <keyword id="6355005" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="news">news</keyword> for the industry is that Moody's — along with other analysts — expect it to fully recover eventually, as long as it can make it through the rough years ahead."Notwithstanding the harsh market environment we envision for the next several years, when passenger demand ultimately returns to 2019 levels, we believe the industry will then need almost as many aircraft as were in operation in 2019," the report said.Even so, not every airline or industry stakeholder is likely to survive."With an effective coronavirus vaccine likely not available before well into 2021 – and likely longer to cover potential mutations of the virus and to ensure adequate dosage supply for the masses – additional government support will be required for the <keyword id="34990" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="airline-industry">airline industry</keyword> if employment levels are to be maintained near already reduced levels," the report said, "and potentially to stave off additional airline restructurings and insolvency proceedings (whether preemptive, or otherwise)."

The airline industry will be ravaged for years to come and the effects will be felt across the entire economy, a new Moody's report says

Global oil prices are expected to fall to almost $70 per barrel by the end of 2024, said Moody's Analytics in a recent report on the <keyword id="119132" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="asia-pacific" source="Orion">Asia Pacific</keyword> (APAC) region. Pointing out the increase in oil prices to $120/barrel in June after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its fall to $100/barrel in August Moody's Analytic said: "This trend will continue; we expect crude prices to fall to almost $70 a barrel by the end of next year." "For the APAC region's big oil importers, notably Singapore and Hong Kong, this will ease pinching price pressures," Moody's Analytics said. According to Moody's Analytics, the impact of oil price increase has been varied for the APAC region. "For net energy importers such as Thailand, <keyword id="6355311" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="japan" source="Orion">Japan</keyword>, <keyword id="5565" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="south-korea" source="Orion">South Korea</keyword> and Singapore, household energy bills have risen sharply. But for the region's key energy exporters, Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia, households have been more sheltered," the report notes. But coal and natural gas prices remain stubbornly high. The APAC region's big liquified natural gas (LNG) importers, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China, are particularly vulnerable to sticky prices. Likewise, with coal prices elevated, big importers, including India, Pakistan and Vietnam, are paying more for what they need, Moody's Analytics said. Although higher commodity prices are hurting households and adding to global inflation pressures, some APAC exporters are benefiting from the price premium. Indonesia and Malaysia are the region's big oil exporters. Higher crude prices have given each an export price boost. Likewise, Australia is in the midst of an export boom, with elevated coal and LNG prices pushing its terms of trade to a record high. That's not only helping Australian firms tied to mining, but also government revenue through company profit tax receipts and royalties. Conversely, energy importers such as South Korea and Japan have seen their import prices jump far more than their exports, resulting in a collapse in their terms of trade, said Moody's Analytics. Higher import costs are putting downward pressure on the region's key currencies, exacerbating weakness from mounting interest rate differentials with the US. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/apple-is-looking-ad-revenue-by-pushing-more-ads-in-its-apps-on-iphones-and-ipads/articleshow/93587791.cms">iPhone users may soon start seeing more ads on their devices, report says</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/adani-logistics-acquires-an-inland-container-depot-for-835-crore/articleshow/93587587.cms">Adani Logistics acquires an inland container depot for ₹835 crore</a>

Global oil prices are expected to fall to $70/barrel by end of 2024: Moody's

The <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>'s decision to tighten norms for unsecured <keyword id="35520" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="personal-loans" source="Orion">personal loans</keyword> is credit positive because lenders will need to allocate higher capital for such loans, thus improving their loss-absorbing buffers, <keyword id="6462970" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="moodys" source="Orion">Moody's</keyword> Investors Service said on Monday. The Reserve Bank last week raised risk weights on unsecured retail loans, credit cards and lending to non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) by 25 percentage points. Moody's said <keyword id="586043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="unsecured-loans" source="Orion">unsecured loans</keyword> have been growing rapidly in the past few years, exposing financial institutions to a potential spike in credit costs in case of sudden economic or interest rate shocks. "The tightening of underwriting norms through higher risk-weighted assets is credit positive because lenders will need to allocate higher capitals for such loans improving their loss-absorbing buffers and may dampen their growth appetite," Moody's said in a statement. It said that over the past few years, India's unsecured lending segment has become very competitive, with banks, NBFCs and financial technology (fintech) companies, including several new entrants, aggressively growing loans in this category. In the past two years, personal loans grew around 24 per cent and credit card loans rose 28 per cent on an average compared with the overall banking sector's credit growth of around 15 per cent, Moody's said. "We expect banks would be able to absorb higher risk weights on their capital because the overall banking sector's exposure to unsecured retail credit is small at around 10 per cent of loans as of September 2023 and the sector's overall capitalization is at historically high levels with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.9 per cent as of March 2023," Moody's said. However, the impact of the new underwriting rules could vary among individual lenders depending on their exposure to unsecured loans, it added. Last week, US-based S&amp;P Global Ratings had said that the RBI's decision to tighten norms for unsecured consumer credit is likely to hit banks' capital adequacy by 60 basis points. The move could lead to higher lending rates, lower credit growth and increase the need for capital raising among weak lenders, it added.

Higher risk weight on unsecured bank loans credit positive: Moody's

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Americans have excess <keyword id="25450" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="savings">savings</keyword> worth $2.6 trillion since the start of COVID, <keyword id="370758" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Moodys-Analytics">Moody's Analytics</keyword> reports.</li><li>The firm said this should power a spending boom that will boost the <keyword id="34412" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="economy">economy</keyword>.</li><li>But the rich saving more and being less likely to spend could hold back stronger growth, it said.</li></ul>Americans have built up excess savings worth $2.6 trillion since the start of the <keyword id="8829783" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="coronavirus-pandemic">coronavirus pandemic</keyword> that will help power the economy's recovery from the crisis, according to Moody's Analytics.The US has amassed the most excess savings of any country, with the cash pile amounting to 12% of gross domestic product.Around the world, people have built up extra savings worth $5.4 trillion, equal to around 6.5% of GDP. Savings have shot up as opportunities for spending have been limited by lockdowns but central banks and governments have pumped money into economies to support employment."An unleashing of significant pent-up demand and overflowing excess saving will drive a surge in consumer spending across the globe as countries approach herd immunity and open up," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, a sister company of the credit ratings agency, in a note.Zandi said Moody's expects 20% of the US excess savings to be spent in 2021, adding 2.4 percentage points to real GDP growth in 2021. The analysis company expects the US economy to grow 6.4% in 2021 after <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-shrank-35-in-2020-after-growing-4-last-quarter-2021-1">shrinking 3.5% in 2020</a>.A further 20% will then be spent in 2022, Moody's predicted, adding another 2.4 percentage points to annual growth, which is set to come in at 5.3%.However, Zandi said the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pandemic-widened-millennial-wealth-gap-economic-inequality-rich-poor-henry-2021-1">unequal nature</a> of the savings built up in the US would limit an even bigger boom in spending."Much of the excess saving has been by high-income, high-net-worth households who are likely to treat the saving more like wealth than income, and will thus spend much of less it, at least quickly," he said.Moody's data showed that nearly two-thirds of the excess savings in the US is by households in the top 10% of the income distribution, and three-quarters is by those in the richest 20%.Excess savings are defined as extra savings on top of what households would have put aside had coronavirus not occurred and their behaviour been the same as in 2019.Earlier this month, JPMorgan strategist Karen Ward said the large build-up in consumer spending could <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/savings-stimulus-drive-up-inflation-markets-jpmorgan-2021-4-1030291245">lead to stronger-than-expected inflation</a>, which could in turn cause volatility in stock <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword>."The US consumer is generally not known for its reserve and thriftiness at the best of times," she said.Ward said she thought it was likely that inflation averaged 3% over the next decade. Core personal consumption expenditure inflation, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure, stood at an annualized <a href="https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy">1.4% in February</a>.

Americans are sitting on $2.6 trillion in excess savings from the pandemic that can help power a recovery, Moody's says

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div>Getty</div>Just minutes ago, <keyword id="6462970" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Moodys">Moody's</keyword> downgraded the U.K.'s sovereign <keyword id="142429" type="EVENT" weightage="60" keywordseo="Credit-Rating">credit rating</keyword> to AA1 from AAA – outlook stable – in a classic (yet historic) Friday night, after-hours announcement.
The British pound fell from around 1.525 against the U.S. dollar to around 1.518 on the news.
Below is the full text from the <a href="http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-UKs-government-bond-rating-to-Aa1-from-Aaa--PR_266844">Moody's release</a>:
<h3 style="padding-left: 30px;">Moody's downgrades UK's government bond rating to Aa1 from Aaa; outlook is now stable</h3>
22 Feb 2013
London, 22 February 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the domestic- and foreign-currency government bond ratings of the United Kingdom by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa. The outlook on the ratings is now stable.
The key interrelated drivers of today's action are:
1. The continuing weakness in the UK's medium-term growth outlook, with a period of sluggish growth which Moody's now expects will extend into the second half of the decade;
2. The challenges that subdued medium-term growth prospects pose to the government's fiscal consolidation programme, which will now extend well into the next parliament;
3. And, as a consequence of the UK's high and rising debt burden, a deterioration in the shock-absorption capacity of the government's balance sheet, which is unlikely to reverse before 2016.
At the same time, Moody's explains that the UK's creditworthiness remains extremely high, rated at Aa1, because of the country's significant credit strengths. These include (i) a highly competitive, well-diversified economy; (ii) a strong track record of fiscal consolidation and a robust institutional structure; and (iii) a favourable debt structure, with supportive domestic demand for government debt, the longest average maturity structure (15 years) among all highly rated sovereigns globally and the resulting reduced interest rate risk on UK debt.
The stable outlook on the UK's Aa1 sovereign rating reflects Moody's expectation that a combination of political will and medium-term fundamental underlying economic strengths will, in time, allow the government to implement its fiscal consolidation plan and reverse theUK's debt trajectory. Moreover, although the UK's economy has considerable risk exposure through trade and financial linkages to a potential escalation in the euro area sovereign debt crisis, its contagion risk is mitigated by the flexibility afforded by the UK's independent monetary policy framework and sterling's global reserve currency status.
In a related rating action, Moody's has today also downgraded the ratings of the Bank of England to Aa1 from Aaa. The issuer's P-1 rating is unaffected by this rating action. The rating outlook for this entity is now also stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The main driver underpinning Moody's decision to downgrade the UK's government bond rating to Aa1 is the increasing clarity that, despite considerable structural economic strengths, the UK's economic growth will remain sluggish over the next few years due to the anticipated slow growth of the global economy and the drag on the UK economy from the ongoing domestic public- and private-sector deleveraging process. Moody's says that the country's current economic recovery has already proven to be significantly slower -- and believes that it will likely remain so -- compared with the recovery observed after previous recessions, such as those of the 1970s, early 1980s and early 1990s. Moreover, while the government's recent Funding for Lending Scheme has the potential to support a surge in growth, Moody's believes the risks to the growth outlook remain skewed to the downside.
The sluggish growth environment in turn poses an increasing challenge to the government's fiscal consolidation efforts, which represents the second driver informing Moody's one-notch downgrade of the UK's sovereign rating. When Moody's changed the outlook on the UK'srating to negative in February 2012, the rating agency cited concerns over the increased uncertainty regarding the pace of fiscal consolidation due to materially weaker growth prospects, which contributed to higher than previously expected projections for the deficit, and consequently also an expected rise in the debt burden. Moody's now expects that the UK's gross general government debt level will peak at just over 96% of GDP in 2016. The rating agency says that it would have expected it to peak at a higher level if the government had not reduced its debt stock by transferring funds from the Asset Purchase Facility -- which will equal to roughly 3.7% of GDP in total -- as announced in November 2012.
More specifically, projected tax revenue increases have been difficult to achieve in the UK due to the challenging economic environment. As a result, the weaker economic outturn has substantially slowed the anticipated pace of deficit and debt-to-GDP reduction, and is likely to continue to do so over the medium term. After it was elected in 2010, the government outlined a fiscal consolidation programme that would run through this parliament's five-year term and place the net public-sector debt-to-GDP ratio on a declining trajectory by the 2015-16 financial year. (Although it was not one of the government's targets, Moody's had expected the UK's gross general government debt -- a key debt metric in the rating agency's analysis -- to start declining in the 2014-15 financial year.) Now, however, the government has announced that fiscal consolidation will extend into the next parliament, which necessarily makes their implementation less certain.
Taken together, the slower-than-expected recovery, the higher debt load and the policy uncertainties combine to form the third driver of today's rating action -- namely, the erosion of the shock-absorption capacity of the UK's balance sheet. Moody's believes that the mounting debt levels in a low-growth environment have impaired the sovereign's ability to contain and quickly reverse the impact of adverse economic or financial shocks. For example, given the pace of deficit and debt reduction that Moody's has observed since 2010, there is a risk that the UK government may not be able to reverse the debt trajectory before the next economic shock or cyclical downturn in the economy.
In summary, although the UK's debt-servicing capacity remains very strong and very capable of withstanding further adverse economic and financial shocks, it does not at present possess the extraordinary resilience common to other Aaa-rated issuers.
RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook on the UK's Aa1 sovereign rating partly reflects the strengths that underpin the Aa1 rating itself -- the underlying economic strength and fiscal policy commitment which Moody's expects will ultimately allow the UK government to reverse the debt trajectory. The stable outlook is also an indication of the fact that Moody's does not expect further additional material deterioration in theUK's economic prospects or additional material difficulties in implementing fiscal consolidation. It also reflects the greater capacity of theUK government compared with its euro area peers to absorb shocks resulting from any further escalation in the euro area sovereign debt crisis, given (1) the absence of the contingent liabilities from mutual support mechanisms that euro area members face; (2) the UK's more limited trade dependence on the euro area; and (3) the policy flexibility that the UK derives from having its own national currency, which is a global reserve currency. Lastly, the UK also benefits from a considerably longer-than-average debt-maturity schedule, making the country's debt-servicing costs less vulnerable to swings in interest rates.
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATING UP/DOWN
As reflected by the stable rating outlook, Moody's does not anticipate any movement in the rating over the next 12-18 months. However, downward pressure on the rating could arise if government policies were unable to stabilise and begin to ease the UK's debt burden during the multi-year fiscal consolidation programme. Moody's could also downgrade the UK's government debt rating further in the event of an additional material deterioration in the country's economic prospects or reduced political commitment to fiscal consolidation.
Conversely, Moody's would consider changing the outlook on the UK's rating to positive, and ultimately upgrading the rating back to Aaa, in the event of much more rapid economic growth and debt-to-GDP reduction than Moody's is currently anticipating.
COUNTRY CEILINGS
The UK's foreign- and local-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Aaa. The short-term foreign-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain Prime-1.
IMPACT ON OTHER RATINGS
Moody's will assess the implications of this action for the debt obligations of other issuers which benefit from a guarantee from the UKsovereign, and will announce its conclusions shortly in accordance with EU regulatory requirements. Moody's does not consider that the one-notch downgrade of the UK sovereign has any implications for the standalone strength of UK financial institutions, or for the systemic support uplift factored into certain UK financial institutions' unguaranteed debt ratings.
PREVIOUS RATING ACTION
Moody's previous action on the UK's sovereign rating and the Bank of England was implemented on 13 February 2012, when the rating agency changed the outlook on both Aaa ratings to negative from stable. For the UK sovereign, the actions prior to that were Moody's assignment of a Aaa rating to the UK's government bonds in March 1978 and the assignment of a stable outlook in March 1997. For the Bank of England, the action prior to the one from February 2012 was the assignment of a Aaa rating and stable outlook in March 2010.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereign Bond Ratings published in September 2008. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
The ratings of rated entity United Kingdom, Government of were initiated by Moody's and were not requested by the rated entity
All rated entities or their agents participated in the rating process. The rated entities or their agents provided Moody's access to the books, records and other relevant internal documents of the rated entity.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
<a href="http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-UKs-government-bond-rating-to-Aa1-from-Aaa--PR_266844">Click here for the full release &gt;</a>

MOODY'S STRIPS THE UK OF ITS AAA RATING

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11971645" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="hurricane-ida" source="Orion">Hurricane Ida</keyword> is set to cause higher <keyword id="11994710" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gas-prices" source="Orion">gas prices</keyword>, which could weigh on consumer spending and GDP, <keyword id="11994713" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="moodys-analytics" source="Orion">Moody's Analytics</keyword> said.</li><li>Moody's analyst Ryan Sweet said 2005's Hurricane Katrina pushed up gas prices and knocked on spending.</li><li>So far the energy market's reaction has been muted, but Moody's said higher gas prices are coming.</li></ul>Hurricane Ida is set to push up <keyword id="11994711" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gasoline-prices" source="Orion">gasoline prices</keyword>, which could weigh on US consumer spending and gross domestic product, Moody's Analytics has said.Ida made landfall on Sunday, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-hurricane-ida-slams-new-orleans-16-years-after-katrina-2021-8">causing widespread destruction</a> and leaving more than 1 million people without power in Louisiana. President Joe Biden declared a "major disaster" in the state. The hurricane was downgraded to a tropical storm on Tuesday.Moody's Analytics analyst Ryan Sweet said in a note on Monday that Ida's economic costs could quickly mount. "As with [2005's] Hurricane Katrina, Ida could have a more significant impact on GDP via higher <keyword id="11994712" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="energy-prices" source="Orion">energy prices</keyword>," Sweet said.Despite causing 96% of US oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico to shut down, according to the <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021-08/TLP-WHITE_DOE%20Situation%20Update_Hurricane%20Ida_2.pdf">Department of Energy</a>, energy <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword> had shown relatively little reaction to Hurricane Ida as of Tuesday. But Sweet said: "Higher prices at the pump are coming."Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sectors-to-buy-stock-trades-to-make-ubs-bull-market-2021-8">These 6 trades can help investors beat the market as torrid earnings growth pushes the S&amp;P 500 to 5,000 in 2022 - even with near-term upside limited</a>"After Hurricane Katrina in 2005, gasoline prices jumped from $2.61 to $3.07 per gallon," Sweet said. "The magnitude of the increase in gasoline prices will factor into the hit to consumer spending and GDP... Real consumer spending fell in August and September 2005 because of the rise in gasoline prices."Yet Sweet said the hit this time around may be smaller because consumers are sitting on more than $2.5 trillion in excess savings built up during coronavirus lockdowns.Sweet stressed the economic costs of Ida cannot yet be known. He said the overall hit to <keyword id="11994714" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="us-gdp" source="Orion">US GDP</keyword> was likely to be marginal, although higher gas prices may cause more damage.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">WTI crude</a> futures, the US benchmark, were down 0.17% to $69.12 on Tuesday. The national gas price average was up a penny to $3.15 a gallon on Monday, according to the <a href="https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-gas-price-average-drops-on-the-week-but-could-see-temporary-spikes-following-hurricane-ida/">American Automobile Association</a>.

Hurricane Ida is set to push up gasoline prices, which threatens consumer spending and GDP, Moody's says

A day after India's sovereign rating downgraded, Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday cut ratings of eight non-financial companies, including <keyword id="6354512" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Infosys">Infosys</keyword>, <keyword id="6357150" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="tcs">TCS</keyword>, ONGC, and three banks SBI, HDFC Bank and EXIM. It also downgraded seven Indian infrastructure issuers, including NTPC, NHAI, GAIL and Adani Green Energy Restricted Group, by one notch. Issuer ratings of IRFC and HUDCO have also been lowered. Moody's said the economic disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the downgrade of the sovereign rating are the key drivers for Tuesday's rating actions. On Monday, Moody's had downgraded India's sovereign rating for the first time in 22 years by a notch to 'Baa3', which is the lowest investment grade -- just a notch above junk status. Accordingly, the long-term issuer ratings of eight non-financial companies -- Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Oil India Ltd, <keyword id="6356834" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="indian-oil-corporation">Indian Oil Corporation</keyword> Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Petronet LNG, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys -- have been downgraded. The outlooks on all these ratings are negative. However, Moody's affirmed the issuer rating of Reliance Industries but revised the outlook to negative from stable. With regard to ratings of banks, Moody's has downgraded the long-term local and foreign currency deposit ratings of HDFC Bank and SBI to Baa3 from Baa2, and the long-term issuer rating of EXIM India to Baa3 from Baa2, with negative outlook. The deposit ratings of these banks are at the same level as India's Baa3 sovereign rating. Consequently, Moody's has downgraded HDFC Bank's baseline credit assessment (BCA) to baa3 from baa2. Moody's has placed the Baa3 long-term local and foreign currency deposit ratings of <keyword id="6358007" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-of-baroda">Bank of Baroda</keyword>, Bank of India, <keyword id="6357132" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Canara-Bank">Canara Bank</keyword> and <keyword id="63524" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Bank-of-India">Union Bank of India</keyword> and their BCAs under review for downgrade. Moody's has downgraded IndusInd's long-term local and foreign currency deposit ratings, with a negative outlook. JD HRS

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