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<ul><li>A <keyword id="48670" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Morgan-Stanley" source="Orion">Morgan Stanley</keyword> report says that rural demand is set to rebound, helped by wider reopening, improving labour market and more.</li><li>Its rural activity tracker has picked up in the last 3-4 months.</li><li>Rural wages have been showing improvement in August and rural unemployment hit an 8-month low in September.</li><li>The structural outlook of rural areas is improving as well – thanks to policymakers’ focus on boosting rural incomes.</li></ul>Rural economy is all set for a rebound as per readings from four key indicators – employment, credit offtake, auto sales and trade, according to a recent report by Morgan Stanley. “We believe rural demand is set to rebound, helped by wider reopening, improving labour market conditions, and improving terms of trade for the rural sector,” the report said. Apart from increasing food inflation since the start of this financial year, India’s villages have been suffering from the effects of the second wave of the pandemic – which dislocated livelihoods. Government spending too was reduced, as compared to the first wave. However, the tide seems to be turning. “High-frequency data suggest that overall economic activity has been normalising over the past three months after remaining sluggish in the trailing 12 months. Our consolidated rural activity tracker shows a pickup in YoY terms over the last 3-4 months,” the report said. Cyclical outlook The first indicator is the unemployment rate which hit an 8-month low in September, as per CMIE. Secondly, two-wheeler sales reached 1.1 million in September, its highest since the pre-pandemic month of October 2020. Agricultural credit growth also hit its highest in nine months in August – at 13.4%. “Even as agriculture exports have been impacted by policy decisions to restrict exports of wheat and rice, they have grown 27.5% in the financial year to date FY23. The terms of trade are now turning with non-food inflation moderating,” Morgan Stanley said. An increase in hiring in the informal sector and more employment opportunities in the semi-skilled space will also help improve rural household incomes, as per the report. Normalised activity will also boost monetary transfers from urban to rural areas - and give a much-needed fillip to the rural economy. Moreover, rural wages – both farm and non-farm — have shown an improvement in August. “Rural wages are steady in nominal terms and probably at trough in real terms,” the report said. Structurally speaking Apart from the cyclical outlook, the structural outlook of rural areas is improving as well – thanks to policymakers’ focus on boosting rural incomes. Apart from improving agricultural productivity, they are building infrastructure, industry and services along with skill-building of the rural labour force. “Progress has already been made in physical infrastructure, connectivity and digital infrastructure, and we expect policymakers to continue to focus on boosting productivity across the rural economy,” the report said. While government spending in rural areas has reduced since the start of the pandemic, it’s still at 3.3% of the GDP — well above the pre-pandemic levels. However, Morgan Stanley also insists that there are risks associated with their assumptions on <keyword id="9592296" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rural-recovery" source="Orion">rural recovery</keyword>. They include slower-than-expected improvement in contact-intensive services segment growth, weak job creation in the semi-skilled segment, and an increase in commodity prices — which will increase non-food inflation and worsen terms of trade for the rural sector. Monsoons: Scarcity plus surplus The biggest drag however is the patchy monsoon this year. While rainfall was 6% above last year’s rainfall, as much as 40% of the total area received excess rainfall and six regions (17% of total) in the north and north-eastern parts of the country recorded a deficit. As per the full-season data, decline in kharif acreage touched 0.8% year-on-year as the deficit in rice sowing – a key summer crop – remains steady at 4.8%. Sowing declined the most for rice, followed by pulses and oilseeds. “The first advance estimates show rice production likely to be 6.8mn tons lower than in 2021. We will continue to monitor the government's measures to regulate the supply and demand balance in this area through procurement and other actions. Separately, the reservoir level is at 108% of the 2021 level, which is likely to support the winter cropping season,” the report said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/two-in-three-ceos-in-india-expect-a-recession-in-12-months-says-survey/articleshow/94934951.cms">Two in three CEOs in India expect a recession in 12 months says survey</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/indians-above-40-are-feeling-younger-healthier-than-gen-z-millennials-report/articleshow/94918231.cms">Indians above 40 are feeling younger &amp; healthier than Gen Z, millennials - report</a>

Rural recovery underway says Morgan Stanley

(Eds: Adds details) New Delhi, Jun 26 () The Southwest Monsoon has covered the entire country nearly two weeks ahead of its schedule, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said Friday. The IMD has predicted heavy rains in Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh in the next few days. "The Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into the remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab and thus it has covered the entire country today, June 26," the IMD said. A low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal, which moved west-northwestwards, and another cyclonic circulation over central India helped in advance of the monsoon. The monsoon usually sets in over Kerala on June 1 and takes 45 days to reach Sriganganagar in west Rajasthan, its last outpost in the country. However, the IMD had advanced the onset date over Sriganganagar by a week from this year. It had also set the new normal date for monsoon to cover the entire country on July 8. In 2013, the monsoon had covered the entire country on June 16. This had also coincided with the deadly Uttarakhand flash floods. "After 2013, the monsoon has covered the country so rapidly this year," IMD Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said. The IMD said there is a trough close to the foothills of eastern Himalayas. Another trough runs from Bihar to east Vidarbha, the IMD said. There is also high convergence of strong moist southerlies, southwesterly winds from the Bay of Bengal over northeast and adjoining east India and it is likely to continue for the next 2-3 days, the IMD added. Owing to these weather patterns, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected at a few places with extremely heavy falls at isolated places is very likely over Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh on June 26 and 27. Heavy to very heavy falls are expected on June 28-29, the IMD added. PR SMN SMN

Southeast Monsoon covers entire country nearly two weeks early: IMD

<ul class="summary-list"><li>An orange alert for heavy rainfall has been issued in Mumbai for the coming days.</li><li>The weather warning coincides with the Ambani wedding, featuring a star-studded guest list.</li></ul>Heavy rain could put a dampener on the celebrations of Anant Ambani and his wife-to-be, Radhika Merchant at their lavish wedding in Mumbai this weekend.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/subdivisionwise-warning.php">The India Meteorological Department has issued an orange alert</a> for the Maharashtra region, where Mumbai is situated, due to the possibility of heavy to very heavy rainfall over the next five days.Anant Ambani, the son of India's richest person, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ambani-richest-family-in-asia-india-lifestyle-home-wedding-photos-2018-12">Mukesh Ambani</a>, is celebrating his ceremony across an opulent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-goes-into-planning-celebrity-wedding-ambani-india-millionaires-ceremony-2024-7">three days of festivities</a>, with a star-studded guest list including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kim-kardashian-single-mom-overwhelming-therapist-2024-6">Kim Kardashian</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/john-kerry-steps-down-from-biden-administration-special-presidential-envoy-2024-1">John Kerry</a>, the former US secretary of state, according to CNBC TV-18, which obtained the guest list from event organizers.After <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/anant-ambani-katy-perry-backstreet-boys-pre-wedding-party-2024-6">a string of extravagant celebrations</a> beginning in March, billionaire Ambani's youngest child <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ambani-pre-wedding-celebration-with-justin-bieber-performance-2024-7">will marry</a> Radhika Merchant, the daughter of Viren and Shaila Merchant, both pharmaceutical tycoons, in Mumbai.The weather warning is attributed to a monsoon trough and cyclonic circulation over the state of Maharashtra. Heavy rain is common during India's monsoon season, which runs from June to September.Mumbai recorded almost 30 centimeters of rain in a single day earlier in the week, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-08/heavy-rains-paralyze-mumbai-city-flights-and-trains-disrupted?embedded-checkout=true">Bloomberg reported.</a><div type="image" title="Children play near a rickshaw in a flooded street in Mumbai, India on July 8, 2024" height="3697" width="5500" msid="111696647" hostid="261"></div>An orange warning is an "alert" under the IMD's system, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/health-fitness/health-news/imd-issues-orange-alert-for-delhi-know-what-this-means-and-how-to-stay-safe/articleshow/111396506.cms">according to the Times of India,</a> it can include weather that disrupts transport and travel, lowered visibility, and, in some areas, can cause landslips.Heavy rain on Friday caused some roads in the city to flood, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/mumbai-rains-live-updates-maharashtra-traffic-local-trains-orange-alert-heavy-rainfall-waterlogging-mumbai-airport/liveblog/111676623.cms">the Times of India reported.</a>Due to the heavy rains, Air India issued an important update in a post on X on Friday, encouraging passengers to depart early to the airport to avoid delays."Flights to and from Mumbai are getting affected due to heavy rains," <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/airindia/status/1811615422070063507">the post said</a>."Guests are advised to start early for the airport, as slow traffic and waterlogging may delay movement."The Press Trust of India <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/PTI_News/status/1811619558261698570?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1811619558261698570%7Ctwgr%5Ea32aeac87471733a135c2d495ecbdb620f875154%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbctv18.com%2Findia%2Fwatch-mumbai-rains-terminal-2-of-chhatrapati-shivaji-maharaj-international-airport-flooded-19442334.htm">uploaded a video</a> to X showing waterlogging following heavy rainfall at terminal two of Mumbai's Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport, the airport's terminal for international flights.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.flightradar24.com/airport/bom/departures">According to data from FlightRadar24,</a> as of 12 p.m. ET Friday, around 57% of flights arriving in Mumbai had been delayed, while around 79% of departures were late.

Heavy rain could put a dampener on the lavish Ambani wedding, with flight delays and flooded roads in Mumbai

The terrifying <keyword id="146947" type="General" weightage="70" keywordseo="lightning" source="Orion">lightning</keyword> and thunder phenomenon that <keyword id="6355192" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="lucknow" source="Orion">Lucknow</keyword> witnessed in the wee hours of September 11 is the kind never seen before. Although lightning with thunderstorms are not unusual, the residents of Lucknow faced a harrowing night because of high frequency. The Met officials said there was lightning for 11 and half hours intermittently from 7.40 p.m. to 7.10 a.m. However, the India Meteorological Department (<keyword id="6366970" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="imd" source="Orion">IMD</keyword>) does not have data on the number of lightning strikes between these hours and any previous records. Atul Kumar Singh, a senior scientist at IMD Lucknow, said that movement of cloud mass is comparatively slower during monsoon. "Cyclonic circulations over north-west Madhya Pradesh and the monsoon trough was slightly to the south of its normal position due to which there was abundant moisture supply from Bay of Bengal over the state of Uttar Pradesh in the lower troposphere. "At the same time there was an active western disturbance in the middle troposphere which was interacting with low level easterly due to this synoptic setting up this kind of rainfall activities in Uttar Pradesh," he explained. Noted environmentalist Prof Venkatesh Dutta from the Department of Environmental Science at the Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, said: "Lightning occurred owing to the fact of intense heating of the Earth's surface and atmosphere. Such type of extreme weather events undoubtedly reflects the impacts of rising atmospheric temperature and climate change. August was the hottest-ever recorded in Lucknow and Uttar Pradesh, and the heat intensified cloud activities." Virendra Singh Yadav, a retired deputy director of the Geological Survey of India, said: "Lucknow and adjoining areas may also experience an increase in the severity and frequency of these incidents in future. Hence, there is a need for prevention, preparedness and to invest in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) which will save lives, livestock, property and infrastructure. It is a wakeup call to us by nature. "Lightning is of three types. The first is thundercloud or intra-cloud lightning. The second is cloud-to-cloud or Inter-cloud lightning and third is cloud-to-ground lightning (CG). The third type of lightning takes a toll on lives and property, and therefore, is of more concern to us. However, inter-cloud and intra-cloud lightning are also dangerous as they may hit aircrafts. "Its peak power and total energy are very high, with the peak power discharge in the order of a 100 million watts per metre of the channel and the peak channel temperature approaching 30,000 degrees Celsius. Peak currents in a lightning discharge range up to hundreds of kilo amperes (kA) with its typical value being 40 kA." Another scientist said: "Owing to global warming, we are observing the increasing number of hot days in a year which, when combined with rain, leads to occurrence of more intense thunderstorms and lightning of greater intensity."

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Rural recovery underway says Morgan Stanley

Katya Naidu

Southeast Monsoon covers entire country nearly two weeks early: IMD

PTI

Heavy rain could put a dampener on the lavish Ambani wedding, with flight delays and flooded roads in Mumbai

Nora Redmond

Scientists explain intense lightning phenomenon in Lucknow

IANS

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