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<ul><li>Monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on June 8. </li><li>With the monsoon delayed for another week, heatwaves in Northern India are going to continue. </li></ul><a href="https://sites.google.com/a/iitgn.ac.in/high_resolution_south_asia_drought_monitor/drought-early-warning-system/dews-india">With the early drought warning hovering over 43.3% parts of the country</a>, people in India aren’t going to get relieved from heat waves for another week. However<a href="http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/monsoon_main.php?adta=PDF&amp;adtb=6"> the monsoon is likely to begin within 48 hours</a> in Kerala and would take at least seven days to reach the central and western regions of the country. 
 
 <div type="ExtQuote" text="Heavy to Very heavy rainfall at isolated places likely over Assam &amp; Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram &amp; Tripura, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala &amp; Mahe on June 8. Heavy rainfall at isolated places likely over Tamilnadu, Puducherry &amp; Karaikal, Lakshadweep, Rayalaseema and Odisha" auname="— Special daily Weather Report by the India Meteorological Department"></div>




 Temperature in Rajasthan’s Churu soared to 50 degree Celsius on June 1— the day when monsoon normally hits Southern parts of India. Many parts of the country are struggling with heat waves with the maximum temperature between 45 degrees to 50 degree Celsius. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), heat waves were expected in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra's Vidarbha region, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh. <a href="http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/monsoon_main.php?adta=JPG&amp;adtb=1">Expected Monsoon dates in key parts of India </a> <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 468pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">State </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Normal Monsoon onset date </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Delayed till (Approximate)* </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Kerala </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">1 June </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">8 June </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Tamil Nadu </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">1 June </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">8 June </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Odisha </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">10 June </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">17 June </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Maharashtra </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">10 June </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">17 June </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">New Delhi </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">29 June </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">5 July </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">West Bengal </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">10 June </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">17 June </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Bihar </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">10 June </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">17 June </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Andhra Pradesh </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">1 June </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">8 June </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Karnataka </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">5 June </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">13 June </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Haryana </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">1 July </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">8 July </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Punjab </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">1 July </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">8 July </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Uttar Pradesh </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;"> </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Madhya Pradesh </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">15 June </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">22 June </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Meghalaya </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">5 June </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">13 June </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Chattisgarh </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">10 June </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">18 June </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">Rajasthan </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">1 July </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;">8 July </td></tr></tbody></table>*These are expected dates and may differ from the actual dates. This has been the second driest pre-monsoon season in the last 65 years, with the lowest being recorded in 2012 when countrywide cumulative rainfall deficiency had mounted to 31 per cent, according Private forecaster Skymet The heatwaves are expected to become severe in New Delhi and other northern cities in the coming days and the mercury is expected to breach 45 degrees Celsius. The National Capital Region along with Haryana and Punjab may get some relief due rains and thunderstorm led by western disturbances after June 11. 
 
 <div type="ExtQuote" text="Usually monsoon arrives in Delhi on June 29. However, this time it is expected to be delayed by a week. It may come in the first week of July" auname="Mahesh Palawat, Director at the private forecaster Skymet."></div>





 Delhi on Wednesday recorded a maximum temperature of 44.6 degrees Celsius, three notches above the season's average. (With IANS)

Monsoon to hit Kerala tomorrow, heatwave in Northern India to last another week

<ul><li>IBM’s new <keyword id="424037" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Weather-Forecasting">weather forecasting</keyword> model — IBM GRAF — will run on a supercomputer while using AI, cloud and analytics to predict weather events.</li><li>The company claims its new product is three times more accurate than existing global forecasting models.</li><li>GRAF will be able to predict the weather up to 12 hours in advance and its forecasts will be updated on an hourly basis.</li></ul>Climate change isn’t only crippling the planet but also cost the world nearly $225 billion in 2018 by causing severe distortions in weather patterns making business decisions uncertain. IBM has a plan to mitigate those shocks with its new weather forecasting system that runs on a supercomputer. "As weather conditions become increasingly more severe across the globe, it’s crucial that businesses across India have access to timely and accurate weather data to help stay prepared," said Cameron Clayton, General Manager of IBM and Weather. 
 
 
	<div type="image" title="ibm" msid="72489962" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Cameron Clayton, General Manager of IBM and Weather&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>






 Nearly 72% of Indians believe that the local economy has been affected by a severe weather event in 2019, according to Climate Change Perception in India. The new weather forecasting system — IBM GRAF — will be able to limit that damage. According to the company, it will be able to predict weather conditions up to 12 hours in advance — something that wasn’t available on a global scale until now. And, it won’t be doing it alone. Its calculations will be supported by artificial intelligence (AI), cloud, and analytics to help with decision making — for just for businesses, but users as well. How is weather forecasting going to get better? IBM promises that its predictions will be more accurate and timely. Current global forecasting models — like the European ECMWF and US’ GFS model — cover 9 to 12 kilometres at a time and are updated every six hours. In comparison, IBM GRAF is able to shrink that distance to 3 kilometre — which means its high-resolution images will be 3-4 times greater. It will provide a resolution so fine that approximations will no longer be needed to figure out where thunderstorms are headed and how they might behave. And, its forecasts will be updated six to 12 times more frequently — that’s nearly once every hour. The primary difference between global models and GRAF is how they predict the weather. Where the ECMWF and GFS solve mathematical equations to figure out how the atmosphere will flow, the GRAF model uses a variable-resolution grid — which kind of looks like a net being thrown over the planet. 
 
 <div type="image" title="MPAS-grid" msid="72489998" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;table&amp;gt;&amp;lt;tbody&amp;gt;&amp;lt;tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;td&amp;gt;The framework on which GRAF is based enables forecasters to combine a global view of the atmosphere with a higher-resolution view of a particular region. This image is from a previous model, MPAS, on which GRAF is based . &amp;lt;br&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/td&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/tr&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/tbody&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/table&amp;gt;"></div>





 “With IBM GRAF, the granularity of insights offered will be an important factor whether it’s helping maximize crop production on agricultural lands or using satellite imagery to guide rescue efforts during a natural disaster,” said Prateep Basu, Founder and CEO of SatSure at the launch. In India, 89% of people have expressed concern that climate change could have a negative impact on the economy, according to the Climate Change Perspectives report. 66% believe severe weather events are more common now than they were a year ago. In 2019, the country was rocked by natural disasters like Cyclone Fani and the initial withdrawal of the Indian monsoon followed by its delayed onslaught. See also: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/environment/news/you-can-experience-the-end-result-of-climate-change-today-with-virtual-reality/articleshow/72217525.cms">You can experience the end result of climate change today with virtual reality</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tiktok-now-has-three-new-stickers-to-remind-users-about-climate-change/articleshow/71186982.cms">TikTok now has three new stickers to remind users about climate change</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/environment/news/indias-indus-water-tower-is-the-most-important-in-the-world-but-its-also-the-most-vulnerable/articleshow/72451341.cms">India's Indus water tower is the most important in the world — but it's also the most vulnerable</a>

IBM believes its new weather forecasting system can mitigate shocks from climate change

<ul><li>After an unprecedented decline of -19% in the Jan-Mar quarter, FMCG industry displayed signs of recovery in Q3’20 with a 1.6% growth (versus Q3 ‘19).</li><li>FMCG witnessed a double digit growth of 10.6% in Q3’20 in Rural India, while the bigger cities (&gt;1 Lakh population including metros and Town Class 1) played catch-up. </li></ul>Nielsen India’s latest report gives us an insight into the consumers’ brains, <keyword id="34529" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="fmcg-sector">FMCG sector</keyword>’s performance and how different parts of our countries are dealing with the current situation. With the pandemic achieving stability and markets and economy opening up, green shoots were visible in the July-August-September quarter for the year. There was an appreciable improvement in the performance of manufacturing, witnessed with an arrest of the declining Index of Industrial Production (IIP) from -57.3% in April’20 to +0.2% in Sep’20. Drop in unemployment rate from 23.7% at its peak in April’20 to 6.7% in Sep’20. Some of the macro variables still reflect the overall economic scenario with inflation rate continuing to rise and the Consumer Confidence Index (RBI) dropping to a low 49.9 in Sep’20 from a 85.6 in March’20 The above-mentioned positivity was reflected in the FMCG industry too. After an unprecedented decline of -19% in the Jan-Mar quarter, FMCG industry displayed signs of recovery in Q3’20 with a 1.6% growth (versus Q3 ‘19). Using proprietary Nielsen Retail Audit data, this note will further delve into the trends of Q3’20 and the outlook for 2020: FMCG INDUSTRY MOVES INTO A POSITIVE GROWTH SPACE The FMCG slowdown in Q2’20 saw a value decline of 19% as compared to the same period of 2019. This was fueled by massive disruptions in the production and supply chain, and low consumer confidence. The unlock from Q3’20, saw a revival in the industry with a growth of 1.6% versus a year ago. The revival was aided by businesses opening up with the pandemic reaching stable levels. Markets started opening up in a phase-wise manner and store closures came down to an average of 3 days a month in Q3’20 from an average of 9 days a month in Q2’20. After being cooped at home for a long time, consumers also started looking at resuming normal consumption levels. RURAL CONTINUES TO DRIVE GROWTH With easing of pandemic and markets unlocking in various phases in the third quarter of the year, we saw recovery across town classes with the rural and Rest of Urban (ROU) regions continuing to lead growth. FMCG witnessed a double digit growth of 10.6% in Q3’20 in Rural India, while the bigger cities (&gt;1 Lakh population including metros and Town Class 1) played catch-up. The rural markets have bounced back handsomely on the back of support provided by the government as well as good agriculture, reverse migration and a lower unemployment rate. Various favorable macro-environment factors have helped drive rural revival in Q3’20 <ol><li>Government dialing up on rural stimulus in the form of increased MGNREGA allocation- <ol><li>11% increase in average wages at an All India level (Sep vs Mar’20).</li><li>83L new households joined MGNREGA labour force </li></ol></li><li>'Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyan’, support to agriculture and upskilling programs for migrant workers that returned to their villages.</li><li>A bountiful <a href="https://www.livemint.com/topic/indian-monsoon">monsoon </a>also brought cheer to farmers with a record output in the kharif crop season. </li></ol> HEALTH &amp; HYGIENE DOMINATES THE NEW LAUNCHES There have been a higher number of new launches per se during the Covid period and a higher number in the non-foods space. As Covid has prompted consumers to re-frame their habits into health and hygiene, more new launches have been made in the health &amp; hygiene basket including categories like hand sanitisers, floor cleaners, toilet cleaners, antiseptic liquids. New launches in the health &amp; hygiene space contributed to 37% (in value) of all new launches in the COVID period. The value contribution of new launches in the health &amp; hygiene category was higher during Covid period at 2.9% OUTLOOK 2020 (Including Traditional Trade, Modern Trade and E-Commerce) After the FMCG industry had a double digit drop in Q2’20 due to intense lockdown stressing the overall economy, it bounced back to positive +1.6% growth in Q3’20 which reflects the onset of green shoots. While the market has initiated a recovery, the demand and supply disruptions caused by the world’s severest lockdown from end-March have severely curtailed economic activity. It is gradually returning to normal as restrictions are relaxed. However, continued spread of the pandemic is keeping the economy watchful. Given the significant headwind built in the start of COVID-19 pandemic in March’20, <keyword id="10336754" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nielsen-forecast">Nielsen forecast</keyword> for 2020 to remain in the negative single digit (-3% to -1%). The key factors influencing the growth trajectory so far and the forecast for the future include: COVID-19 Impact On The Economy: Annual consumer price inflation in India increased to 7.5 percent in September of 2020 It is the highest rate since May 2014. Food inflation went up to 11.07 percent from 10.68 percent, the highest since January and ahead of the festival season impacting the overall expenditure and consumer confidence muted. The trajectory of the FMCG industry once again reinforces the inherent strength of the consumption story in India irrespective of the fact that we had a GDP which shrank 23.9% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020. There are steps being actioned by the Government that can help counter these changes in the coming quarter in the farm sector and has sought to deliver labour market flexibility: <ul><li>The Interest-On-Interest waiver is expected to bring some relief and additional cash in hand for individuals and MSME businesses</li><li>The cash voucher scheme for central government employees is expected to boost spending in big proportions in upcoming months</li><li>About 83 lakh households enrolling from April to August under MNREGA saw an all time high providing livelihood in Rural</li></ul>A bountiful monsoon has brought cheer to farmers, with a record output expected in the kharif crop season. With reservoirs filled to the brim, output is expected to be high in the rabi season as well. Increasing purchasing power in the hands of farmers is expected to increase rural demand. There has also been an appreciable improvement in the performance of both manufacturing and service sectors in October. FMCG Q3’20- TO SUM UP <ul><li>AFTER A DISMAL PERFORMANCE IN Q2 (AMJ’20), FMCG INDUSTRY MOVES INTO A POSITIVE GROWTH SPACE</li><li>BHARAT (SMALL TOWNS &amp; RURAL), NORTH ZONE &amp; SMALL MANUFACTURERS DRIVING GROWTH</li><li>CONSUMER PREFERENCE FOR AFFORDABLE OFFERINGS CONTINUE</li><li>INNOVATION (NEW PRODUCTS LAUNCHED) DOMINATED BY HEALTH &amp; HYGIENE CATEGORY</li><li>NIELSEN OUTLOOK FOR FMCG INDUSTRY GROWTH FOR 2020 REVISED TO THE RANGE OF -1 TO -3%</li></ul>

Nielsen predicts degrowth in the FMCG sector by 1 to 3% in Q3’20

<ul><li>The latest forecast from <keyword id="6376779" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="skymet">Skymet</keyword> is expected to take a toll on <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword> today and cause some volatility in the trading of agro-commodities. </li><li>The weather forecasting organisation has predicted that India’s <keyword id="6358301" type="DEFINITION" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon">monsoon</keyword> winds will arrive in Southern India later than expected, by the first week of June, and provide lesser-than-expected <keyword id="47162" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="rainfall">rainfall</keyword> this year. </li><li>A strong monsoon always provides a filip to India’s economy. Not only does it increase farm production, prevent food inflation and raise rural demand, but it also stimulates business and consumer confidence. </li></ul>A strong monsoon always provides a filip to India’s economy. Not only does it increase farm production, prevent food inflation and raise rural demand, but it also stimulates business and consumer confidence. In a rainfall deficient period, it’s harder for a bull run to take place in financial markets as investors get jittery. If harvests are low, this also increases the pressure on the government to give sops to <keyword id="45092" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="farmers">farmers</keyword>. This is why the latest forecast from Skymet is expected to take a toll on markets today and cause some volatility in the trading of agro-commodities. The weather forecasting organisation has predicted that India’s monsoon winds will arrive in Southern India later than expected, by the first week of June, and provide <a href="https://in.reuters.com/article/india-monsoon/indias-monsoon-to-arrive-late-deliver-less-rain-skymet-idINKCN1SK14H">lesser-than-expected rainfall</a> this year. The monsoon period is expected to end by September, when the last of the winds leaves the western state of Rajasthan. Jatin Singh, managing director of Skymet, told Reuters that India would receive, “93% rainfall of the long period average in 2019.” Singh added that central India would get 91% of the average rainfall while eastern India would get 92%. South India, meanwhile, should get 95% of the average. Skymet’s prediction clashes with forecasts from the government-run India Meteorological Department (IMD), which said last month that there would be average rainfall this season - which provided <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/sensex-rises-139-points-nifty-at-11690-tata-motors-tcs-rally/articleshow/68889490.cms">a strong boost to stock markets</a> the day it was announced. The monsoon reportedly accounts for <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/imd-projects-near-normal-monsoon-but-how-big-a-factor-is-it-for-market/articleshow/68888435.cms">70-80%</a> of India’s water requirement for agriculture which is why people will keep a close eye on forecasts in the immediate future. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/the-mystery-of-indias-erratic-monsoon-can-be-found-in-the-indian-ocean/articleshow/69215027.cms">The mystery of India’s erratic monsoon can be found in the Indian ocean</a>

Latest monsoon projection may take the wind out of India's markets

<ul><li>Private weather forecaster Skymet has predicted heavy rains in Mumbai that pose a serious risk of floods.</li><li>The south-west monsoon brought clouds that have covered the Mumbai sky over the last few days with strong showers.</li><li>The prediction is that the rains will intensify between July 3-5 and it may cause floods.</li></ul> The south-west monsoon brought clouds that have covered the Mumbai sky over the last few days and brought strong showers since Friday. The prediction is that the rains will intensify between July 3-5 and it may cause floods. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast intermittent to moderate rain for the next three days. However, private weather forecaster Skymet has predicted heavy rains in Mumbai that pose a serious risk of floods. 
	<div type="twitter" handle="SkymetWeather" handlename="SkymetWeather" image="http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/804683634460397568/bBbj1njb_normal.jpg" favoritecount="170" retweetcount="174" status="Our Managing Director @JATINSKYMET says #Mumbai is at serious risk of flooding between July 3 and 5. Close to 200 m… https://t.co/ZSa3d0EPFF" createdat="1561882490000" id="1145244288868945920"></div>



 Mumbai, India's financial capital, witnessed over above 200 mm rainfall in 24 hours on Friday. While the rest of the country is reeling through dry spell, the average rainfall in Mumbai in June was above its long-term average, according to Skymet. Heavy rains on Sunday night caused water logging and traffic snarls, slowing down one the metropolis on Monday (July 1). "A monsoon depression movement will be approaching near Maharashtra and the Konkan coast so we could get a little heavier spells, little respite in between before we have the next one again," GP Sharma, vice president of meteorology, <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/monsoon-gains-second-wind-after-driest-june-expect-heavy-downpour-in-july-gp-sharma/articleshow/70025756.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Skymet told a television channel</a> on Monday. And another bout of rain of over 200 mm or more could bring the congested city with creaky infrastructure and the country's two biggest stock exchanges to a standstill. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indias-monsoon-rains-below-average-levels-for-a-fourth-week-2019-6?IR=T" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">India's monsoon rains below average levels for a fourth week</a>

Mumbai must brace for floods this week, says a private weather forecaster

<ul><li>India’s stock markets achieved near-record highs on expectations of a solid electoral victory by the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in India’s general elections. </li><li>The Sensex and Nifty both opened more than 2% higher or over 800 points and 240 points, respectively, following the release of exit polls the previous evening. </li><li>All exit polls point to a return of the BJP-led National Democractic Alliance (NDA) administration. The overall tally for the NDA is pegged at between 287 and 365 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, translating into a comfortable majority for the ruling government.</li></ul>India’s markets clocked record gains on expectations of a solid electoral victory by the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in India’s general elections. The Sensex and Nifty both closed nearly <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=sensex&amp;rlz=1C1CHZL_enIN746IN746&amp;oq=sensex&amp;aqs=chrome..69i57j0j69i60j0l3.1615j0j7&amp;sourceid=chrome&amp;ie=UTF-8">4% higher </a>or over 1400 points and 400 points, respectively, following the release of exit polls the previous evening. The major gainers included SBI, Yes Bank and L&amp;T. This was the indices’ highest one-day gain since 2009. The rupee also rose <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/business/rupee-vs-dollar-currency-exchange-rate-today-rupee-surges-86-paise-against-dollar-as-exit-polls-pred-2040107">more than 1%</a> against the dollar, reaching 69.36. It could appreciate to 68 in the coming days should the exit polls prove right. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/elections/india-exit-polls-2019-final-tally-for-bjp-congress-mahagathbandhan-and-others/articleshow/69399662.cms">All exit polls</a> point to a return of the BJP-led National Democractic Alliance (NDA) administration. The overall tally for the NDA is pegged at between 287 and 365 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, translating into a comfortable majority for the ruling government. Some of the polls also suggested that the BJP’s main national rival, the Congress, would fail to breach the 100-seat mark owing to losses in the Hindi heartland. However, exit polls in India have had a patchy record in the last few elections. While they have predicted the correct winner more often than not, they have underestimated the number of seats. As a result, market gains, will be limited until counting gets over later this week on Thursday. Investors favour a majority BJP government as it portends policy continuity and stability in governance for another five years. An opposition victory or a weak coalition government would be unfavourable scenarios for both domestic and foreign investors as it increases risk perception. In fact, while a BJP victory has mostly been priced in by the markets, a stronger result than expected will lead to a higher upside, according to <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/more-upside-in-store-if-nda-returns-to-power-says-clsa/articleshow/68931452.cms">CLSA,</a> a brokerage. That being said, electoral results only have a short-term bearing on markets. The real long term gains are a result of growth and economic performance. With a rising deficit, jobs crisis, financing crunch and deficient monsoon, the incoming government will have a lot to deal with once it comes to power. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/elections/india-exit-polls-2019-final-tally-for-bjp-congress-mahagathbandhan-and-others/articleshow/69399662.cms">India exit poll results 2019: All surveys predict a full majority for Narendra Modi-led NDA</a>

Sensex clocks highest one-day gain in 10 years as Indian markets celebrate results of exit polls

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A key system of Atlantic Ocean currents may collapse anytime between 2025 and 2095, a new study found.</li><li>This would result in weather pattern changes that could affect "every person on the planet," one expert told CNN.</li></ul>A key system of ocean currents will likely collapse in the next few decades, scientists say, leading to disastrous weather conditions across the globe. This system — the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current, which includes the Gulf Stream — has been under careful watch by scientists for several years. In 2019, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">predicted</a> the stream would collapse sometime after 2100.However, scientists are now reporting "with high confidence" that the system could collapse anytime between 2025 and 2095, with the most likely window landing between 2039 and 2070, according to a <a href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=0067780eae438859e89aa37c30a184d3907fd65805d8156294f7d398971bc35f&amp;postID=64c14ad005b4dad4a2847d10&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41467-023-39810-w" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new study.</a>"It's really scary," Peter Ditlevsen — a co-author on the study and professor of climate physics — <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/25/world/gulf-stream-atlantic-current-collapse-climate-scn-intl/index.html">told CNN.</a>The effects of such a collapse could include permanent drought in Western Africa, extreme winters in Western Europe, and disruptions to monsoon patterns in India, South America, and Western Africa, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/06/world/climate-gulf-stream-collapse-warning-study-intl/index.html">CNN reported in 2021.</a> The collapse could also trigger a rapid rise in sea levels across the globe.Peter de Menocal, president of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, told CNN the collapse "would affect every person on the planet." The authors of the study included recommendations to mitigate the collapse of the system, including immediate moves to eliminate planet-warming pollution.

Climate change is killing off a vital ocean current system and it could spark permanent droughts and extreme winters, scientists say

Climate Action 15: 2024's top global innovators powering green solutions

<ul><li><keyword id="131262" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Leo-Burnett">Leo Burnett</keyword> India’s motorcycle mounted device helps detect potholes in real-time.</li><li>It is sponsored by ACKO Insurance.</li></ul>India is known to have one of the largest road networks in the world, however owing to heavy traffic and water logging, Indian roads are riddled with potholes making them a serious menace for commuters. *Last year, we recorded 4775 accidents and 2140 deaths due to pothole-related accidents. And this problem becomes even more acute during monsoon as waterlogging causes thousands of potholes to become invisible overnight, making them extremely dangerous for two-wheeler commuters. The team at Leo Burnett India has been researching and working towards finding a solution that will help address this problem. It has now come up with a unique solution to detect potholes. Leo Burnett India has announced the launch of ‘StreetEye’ - a motorcycle mounted device that can help map potholes in real time, potentially saving thousands of motorcyclists from accidents and mishaps. StreetEye has been conceptualised and created by Leo Burnett India and sponsored by ACKO the new-age digital general insurance brand and will be launched soon. ‘StreetEye’ is a motorcycle-mounted device that can detect submerged potholes in real-time using light detecting stereo cameras. StreetEye has been designed and developed by Leo Burnett and sponsored by ACKO. <div type="Youtube" id="7yxcNYSV-W0" title="Introducing StreetEye: a motorcycle-mounted device that detects potholes in real-time" thumbUrl="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/7yxcNYSV-W0/mqdefault.jpg"></div> Speaking about the prospective launch Rajdeepak Das, CEO &amp; Chief Creative Officer, Leo Burnett said “At Leo Burnett we believe the only way to predict the future is to create it ourselves. We have always been driven by our HumanKind philosophy which puts people and problems at the centre of all our initiatives. The teams at Leo Burnett have been tirelessly researching, developing and testing various versions of StreetEye to find a solution to one of the vital problem i.e. accidents due to potholes. And we are very excited about this product and would be launching it soon in the market.” Adding further, Dheeraj Sinha, CEO &amp; Chief Strategy Officer, Leo Burnett said “Creativity’s true potential is in solving larger problems of the world. StreetEye is a perfect example of how by bringing together innovation, data, design &amp; technology and fuelling it with creativity we can create new age solutions to resolve age old problems. At Leo Burnett we have realised that by bringing creativity and technology together we can play a greater role in helping solve larger problems together with our client partners.” Ashish Mishra, EVP - Marketing, ACKO said “ACKO as a brand has revolutionized the insurance buying process by innovating and replacing traditional models with new-age solutions. ACKO’s commitment to improving lives and Leo Burnett’s vision to use technology for solving real problems has made this happen. We look forward to StreetEye making a meaningful difference especially for bikers during monsoon.” *Reference - The above statistical information was obtained from the Indian Ministry of Road Transport and Highways report of the year 2019

This advertising agency has come up with a unique solution to prevent motorcycle accidents in India

New Delhi, Jul 5 () The country's largest carmaker <keyword id="44883" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Maruti-Suzuki">Maruti Suzuki</keyword> India (MSI) is seeing better demand in <keyword id="6361659" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rural-Areas">rural areas</keyword> due to less number of COVID-19 cases as compared with urban regions which continue to reel under the high number of cases of the infectious disease, as per a senior company official. Buying sentiment in rural areas is also better due to good initial spell of rains in June which has led to a better sowing of the kharif crop. "Rural demand is little better than urban right now. In Maruti, the rural share has gone up to 40 per cent in June which is 1 per cent increase over the last fiscal," MSI Executive Director Marketing and Sales Shashank Srivastava told . He listed three main reasons for the phenomenon which is based on the recent data. "One is that COVID-19 has impacted the sentiment little less in rural areas. In fact cluster of Covid and containment zones are largely in urban areas. Secondly, rabi crop has been good, and initial monsoon in June has been good so the sowing for kharif crop is much better, so rural sentiment as compared to urban sentiment is little better," Srivastava noted. Both rural and urban sales were down as compared to last year, but rural sales were relatively better than urban areas, he added. "There is decline in rural areas also as compared to last year, but it is less as compared to urban regions," Srivastava said. In June, MSI reported a 53.7 per cent dip in domestic sales at 53,139 units as against 1,14,861 units in June 2019. The company's sales were, however, better than May, when it had posted domestic sales of 13,888 units. When asked if the company would be able to sustain sales momentum going ahead, Srivastava said, "It is difficult to predict. A lot will depend (on) how the Covid situation pans out so it is difficult to make prediction about the future." Replying to a question on if the company would be able to cover the loss in sales in first quarter over the remaining part of the current fiscal, he said, "Really don't know how the Covid thing will pan out." "Lot of this long term demand will depend (on) how the Covid thing unravels, how the fundamentals of economy are, and how is the financing available, so these things will decide. There are so many uncertainties involved that it is difficult to predict," Srivastava added. However, he said, with demand picking up, the industry has started to ramp up production. Srivastava said retail sales were far better than wholesales across the industry. Ramping up of production is happening in phases and retail sales are a reflection of production. Retail figures are much better, he noted. "If you see wholesales for the entire industry, it would be roughly less than 50 per cent than last year. Retail sales on the other hand is around 80-85 per cent. Of course both are less as compared to last year," he added. With complete lockdown in April and limited sales in May, MSI reported 81 per cent dip in total first quarter sales at 76,599 units as compared with 4,02,594 units in same period of 2019-20. MSS RVK

Maruti Suzuki top honcho says car sales are better in rural than urban areas due to COVID-19

<ul><li>Vector-borne diseases — including malaria, dengue and chikungunya — cost India nearly $3 billion to $4 billion every year.</li><li>The impact of such diseases could increase the burden on a recessionary economy if essential actions like individual protection measures are not taken into consideration.</li><li>The importance of essential measures like wearing clothes that minimise skin exposure, and using mosquito repellents is all the more important with authorities already being stretched thin.</li></ul>Vector-borne diseases like malaria, dengue and chikungunya aren’t cheap for India. They carry a socio-economic burden of $3 billion to $4 billion every year for India, according to a study by the World Health Organisation (WHO). <div type="twitter" handle="BiIndia" handlename="Business Insider India🇮🇳" image="http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1232926719016718336/sfffJHNV_normal.jpg" favoritecount="42" retweetcount="10" status="#StopTheSpread | @thrive_india’s @docmranney speaks to @sunilkat, CEO India &amp; SAARC, @GodrejGroup, @PATHtweets'… https://t.co/8R3RWd6YsK" createdat="1591691390000" id="1270271874505699329"></div> “Post-COVID, what it does to a recessionary economy that’s slowing down, nobody can predict,” said Sunil Kataria, CEO of Godrej Consumers Products in India, during the ‘Stop the Spread’ panel with Business Insider India. <div type="image" title="Malaria3_edited" msid="76436839" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;A man sleeps inside an auto-rickshaw covering with a mosquito net in Kurla&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> However, with the coronavirus pandemic taking hold in India, vector-borne diseases aren’t on top of people’s list of concerns. “Every fever is not necessarily coronavirus. People need to understand, that particularly now, the seasonality of vector-borne diseases, that there are other things to be wary of,” said Marcus Ranney of Thrive Global India. This is highlighted by a poll that First Moms Club conducted to find that 95% of mothers are only thinking about the coronavirus — not vector-borne diseases. “This is not a topic that’s come up, which used to come up till last year around this time,” said Ruchita Dar Shah, the Founder and CEO of First Moms Club. <div type="image" title="Malaria6_edited" msid="76436845" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Mosquito repellent used in houses&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> With the authorities already stretched thin, not taking the necessary steps to prevent diseases like malaria, dengue and chikungunya could stress the economy even further. Essential actions like wearing clothes that minimise skin exposure — especially during the day — using <a href="https://www.amazon.in/Goodknight-Gold-Flash-Mosquito-Repellent/dp/B07YX8XV5S/ref=sr_1_4?dchild=1&amp;keywords=Good+Knight&amp;qid=1592285181&amp;sr=8-4">mosquito repellents</a>, household aerosol products, mosquito coils can reduce the risk. Vector-borne diseases were already increasing before coronavirus Dengue has affected more than two lakh people in 2019. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare’s estimates show that 25 states and union territories (UTs) across India have reported an increase in the number of dengue cases from 2018 to 2019. <div type="image" title="Malaria2_edited" msid="76436858" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Employees of BMCC perform an anti-malaria fumigation drive inside a slum in Kalina, Mumbai &amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> “Since late 2019 the cases of dengue started increasing,” said Kaushik Sarkar, the India technical lead for Malaria No More. Data provided by the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP) shows that the total number of combined dengue, malaria and chikungunya cases in 2019 came up to 487,730. “This year, malaria interventions have been pushed back, because of the lockdown and other measures that have prevented mass level interventions,” said Sarkar citing that there is every potential for a “large upsurge of cases” of malaria and dengue this year if <a href="https://www.amazon.in/HIT-Spray-Flying-Insect-Killer/dp/B00H0FIL6I/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&amp;keywords=HiT&amp;qid=1592285262&amp;sr=8-1">essential precautions </a>aren’t taken at an individual level to prevent the spread of the disease. <div type="image" title="Malaria1_edited" msid="76436872" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Students of St Aloysius College, Mangaluru cleaning Bunder area &amp;#8212; identified as a high-risk area for malaria and other vector-borne diseases.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Climate change is allowing mosquitoes to thrive An additional point of concern this year is that climate change is altering the geographical and seasonal distribution of vector-borne diseases. Normally, between March 15 to April 15 the number of mosquitoes increases. And then, with the summers coming in, there is a sharp drop in mosquito infestation until the monsoon season kicks in. “Ever since the lockdown has happened, we haven’t seen a drop. It’s the first time that we have seen such a change. Between April and May, there’s been a steady pattern of mosquito infestation in the country,” said Kataria, highlighting how climate change is also responsible for the increase in cyclones across the country and locust attacks in the northern parts of India. <div type="image" title="Malaria5_edited" msid="76436877" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;A potter making earthen lamps under an anti-mosquito coil to protect himself from the dengue mosquito at Mandiri Mohalla locality in Patna, Bihar&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> “Global climate is adding a new variable to the fight against vector-borne diseases,” Kataria explained. While India battles coronavirus, it’s important to remember that the fight against malaria, dengue and chikungunya is ongoing. Offices and large spaces have remained shut during the lockdown, where water may have collected providing a breeding ground for mosquitoes, as per Ranney. He cites prevention being the only cure during the current crisis. While there is no reason to be scared it’s essential to be aware, take the right actions and ensure <a href="https://www.amazon.in/Good-Knight-Naturals-Agarbatti-AntiMosquito/dp/B07NQJCN9V">prevention</a> at an individual level. Disclaimer: Business Insider has partnered with Godrej Consumer Products Limited to help you take the necessary steps to prevent VBD.

In all the noise around COVID-19 — the risks from malaria, dengue and chikungunya are ignored

Mumbai, Jul 9 () India's GDP will contract by 3 per cent in FY21 because of the coronavirus pandemic, assuming the economy is opened up fully from next month, a foreign brokerage said on Thursday. BofA Securities also said the RBI will monetise the fiscal deficit through purchase of government bonds of up to USD 95 billion through open market operations, and its revaluation reserves of USD 127 billion may also be used to recapitalise state-run banks. Economists have been sharply cutting their growth forecasts for FY21 because of the impact of the pandemic and all watchers, including the RBI, now believe the Indian GDP will contract this fiscal, with some estimates ranging up to 7 per cent negative growth. BofA Securities' base case estimate is for 3 per cent contraction with the assumption of the economy opening up fully from mid-August, which may go up to 5 per cent if the crisis prolongs. Its India economist Indranil Sen Gupta told reporters that his estimate is among the more optimistic ones and differs from others on the likelihood of the COVID-19 impact, which he said is a health emergency which no one can predict with certainty at present. He said the strict lockdown in April and May had a 3 percentage points impact on the annual GDP, and subsequently with the limited opening up, the monthly impact has gone down to 1 percentage point per month. India's GDP growth decelerated to 4.2 per cent in 2019-20, the weakest in over a decade. Gupta said the growth potential is over 7 per cent. GDP growth will come in at 9 per cent in FY22 on the lower base, he said, adding that for two fiscal years (FY21 and 22), the growth will come at an average of 3 per cent, which would mean that the COVID-19 pandemic has set Indian economy back by a year. The biggest strength for India at present is the over USD 500 billion in forex reserves which have been accumulated by the RBI over some months, and it is due to this kitty that the country is not being bracketed with other emerging economies by the markets at present, he said. The rural sector also is a relatively bright spot because of better monsoons which will deliver a normal harvest for the summer crop and also the lesser instances of COVID-19 infections, he said, estimating the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector to clock 3.5 per cent growth. However, on the flip side, India has a large population, limited healthcare infrastructure and has opened up the economy when the infection curve was rising, leading to tripling of cases in a month, he said, calling this as the biggest weakness at present. The RBI will cut rates by 0.50 per cent by October in the base case, and if the economy contracts by a higher level of 5 per cent, the cuts will total up to 1.50 per cent more by December, he said. However, the rise in the real rate of interest because of stiffness in the wholesale price inflation is a matter of concern, he said, adding that this needs attention. Indian banks need over USD 7 billion in recapitalisation support, which will make sure that they continue to lend, he said, adding that bankers should desist from shying away from lending due to concerns of NPAs in future. Given the difficulties in arranging the finance, the government can look at RBI's revaluation reserves to be deployed into bank recapitalisation. Asked if such a contentious step will be considered, he said this is the best option given the circumstances as it does not put any pressure on the fiscal situation. AA ABM ABM

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