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<ul><li>Total rainfall in India came in at 91% of the 50-year average between June to September, according to the Indian Meteorological Department, as opposed to predictions of 97%. </li><li>This was largely due to the fact that the northeastern parts of India, which usually receive higher rainfall than the rest of the country, experienced a shortage in rainfall. </li><li>However, despite the weak <keyword id="6358301" type="DEFINITION" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon">monsoon</keyword>, India’s crop production this kharif season is expected to reach a record level of 141.6 million tonnes. </li></ul>India’s rainfall this monsoon season fell short of forecasts for the second consecutive year, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Total rains came in at 91% of the 50-year average between June to September, as opposed to predictions of 97%. This was largely due to the fact that the northeastern parts of India, which usually receive higher rainfall than the rest of the country, experienced a shortage in rainfall. Infact, 69% of the country received a normal or excessive rainfall this monsoon season, with the flood-ravaged <keyword id="28504" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kerala">Kerala</keyword> receiving 23% higher rainfall than normal. Gujarat had an uncharacteristically dry season, receiving 24% less rain than normal, while UP and Bihar had the most rain-deficient districts. It bears mentioning that the 97% forecast for this year was reaffirmed despite a dry spell in the first half of the season. A normal monsoon involves rainfall in the range of 96%-104% of the 50-year or long-term average. A drought season occurs when rainfall is 90% of the long-term average or less. A record <keyword id="6417335" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="harvest">harvest</keyword> The June-September period is particularly crucial for India’s agriculture industry as this season provides 70% of the country’s annual precipitation. However, despite the weak monsoon, India’s crop production this kharif season is expected to reach record levels. As per government forecasts, production of summer <keyword id="18620" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="crops">crops</keyword> should reach 141.6 million tonnes in 2018-19, a slight jump from last year’s record bounty of 140.7 million tonnes, owing to a 2% jump in the output of <keyword id="13726" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="rice">rice</keyword> to nearly 100 million tonnes - which bodes well for exports. This is even more significant as there has been a slight shrinkage in the total acreage occupied by kharif crops this year. The record harvest this year is largely due to the fact that farmers are prioritising crops that don’t require excessive rainfall. They’re choosing crops based on the existing moisture level in the soil, thereby making their harvest less dependent on the monsoon. According to research by the IMD, soil moisture was found to be adequate in most districts that received a rainfall of 20% less than the average. In addition, farmers are also planting crops that will fetch them better prices - for example, choosing soybeans over pulses - and factoring the monsoon less in their decisions. A double-edged sword However, despite the obvious cause for celebration, a record harvest can prove to be a drag on farmer incomes. A high level of food grain production translates into lower prices - which is great for households - but hurts farmers. If wholesale prices remain below the government’s minimum support prices, then it will have to step in and procure more grains from farmers than budgeted.

Despite a second consecutive deficient monsoon, India is poised for a record harvest

Not only farmers, but prediction of deficient monsoon brought bad news for Maruti Suzuki as well. The car market leader said that the below normal monsoon could affect sales in some parts of the country, especially in rural market. 
 "Yes, the deficient monsoon prediction is a cause of worry. Sales could be affected in some parts, especially in the rural market," said <keyword id="6365618" type="CITY" weightage="80" keywordseo="Maruti-Suzuki-India">Maruti Suzuki India</keyword> Managing Director and CEO Kenichi Ayukawa. 
 The <keyword id="55209" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="Indian-Meteorological-Department">Indian Meteorological Department</keyword> revised monsoon forecast from 93% to 88% for this year and stated that north-west region of the country could be worst hit. 
 
In April, the MeT department had forecast that monsoon rains would be 93% of the average, which is categorised as "below normal". 
 
Maruti Suzuki’s rural sales went up by 23% to 4,15,380 units in last fiscal year, when it posted a total of 12,92,415 units - the highest ever total sales in a financial year. 
 
Meanwhile, Ayukawa said Maruti Suzuki would try to overcome the impact of the deficient monsoon and pinned hopes on new product launches and other market activation activities. 
 
(Image: Indiatimes)

Deficient monsoon brings bad news for Maruti Suzuki. Know why

Even as Finance Minister <keyword id="42575" type="PERSON" weightage="80" keywordseo="Arun-Jaitley">Arun Jaitley</keyword> played down the concerns over <keyword id="1146394" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="80" keywordseo="deficient-monsoon">deficient monsoon</keyword> this year saying the forecast was misplaced and distress was far-fetched, the <keyword id="151047" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="Rural-Development-Ministry">Rural Development Ministry</keyword> went on war footing to ramp up flagship rural jobs scheme to generate income for affected families. 
 
Jaitley said that the timing and spread of the June-September rainy season suggested the effect won't be as dire, adding that the distribution pattern of rain forecast was such that any impact on farm output will be limited. 
 
The Finance Minister also said that there was "abundance of foodgrain" and in any case, the forecast signalled less pain than last year. 
 
India's Meteorological Department (IMD) revised its forecast of average rainfall in the June-September monsoon to 88% from 93%, fuelling fears of a drought. 
Farmers in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, etc are already distressed due to unseasonal rainfall. 
 
Meanwhile, the Rural Development Ministry is revamping the Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGS) and checking de-silting of water bodies, building check dams, percolation tanks and farm ponds to brace against a possible drought and build assets for future. 
 
"We will use satellite mapping to identify areas where the work needs to be taken up. Once the regular monsoon sets in, such construction cannot be done so we have to get into action immediately," a senior rural development ministry official told Economic Times. 
As per the data for 22 states, 93,000 water-harvesting structures have been built to provide irrigation to 1.2 lakh hectares of land. 
 
"Most of the work in rural areas in permitted under (the jobs programme) and since it is an open-ended scheme with no financial limitation, it is advantageous to take up work under this scheme," the official told ET. 
 
The ministry is also going to expedite its watershed management programmes. 
 
As per Economic Times, only 40% of agriculture area receives assured irrigation in the country. 
 
Jaitley said only the North-West is forecast to get slightly inadequate rainfall. “A large part of the northwest has substantial irrigation facility", Jaitley said. 
 
Sufficient foodgrain 
 
The Food Corporation of India (FCI), in the beginning, had more than 51 million tonnes of rice and wheat in the central pool itself. 
 
"The rainfall was less last year than what is predicted now and it came even later. Even then we did not let prices rise. We have more than sufficient food stock. Taking them to the market is one of the tools the government has,” said Jaitley. 
 
(Image: Indiatimes)

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Despite a second consecutive deficient monsoon, India is poised for a record harvest

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Deficient monsoon brings bad news for Maruti Suzuki. Know why

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Arun Jaitley dispels deficient monsoon fears, Rural Ministry revamps MNREGA

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