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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Some economists predict a "soft landing" for the US economy despite some warning signs.</li><li>Positive labor market data and GDP growth support this, but job opportunities in some sectors are down.</li></ul>Some economists think the US is well on its way to achieving the much-anticipated "soft landing." But there are warning signs still pointing to economic struggles down the line.Barclays' Marc Giannoni, LinkedIn's Karin Kimbrough, and Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders spoke at an NYU Stern Economic Outlook Forum earlier this month.Giannoni said Barclays expects "activity to gradually slow and employment to gradually moderate," with the unemployment rate moving up slightly and inflation falling. He added that the economic conditions may point to a perfect soft landing.There's plenty of evidence that the soft landing is on the way. Job growth continues to be strong. While the personal saving rate may be low, people are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/main">spending,</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence">consumer confidence</a> has climbed. Amid <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-consumer-price-index-january-housing-food-energy-prices-2024-2">inflation</a> cooling and another <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/did-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-continue-pause-inflation-recession-2024-1">interest-rate hike pause</a> in January, the Fed is cautiously optimistic about the future.But there are still signs of a possible downturn in the near future. Not all job data is positive, with job openings falling from their post-pandemic highs. There are still pain points in the economy, like a lack of strong housing inventory. Lower-income Americans are still struggling in today's economy despite seeing some <a target="_blank" href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-purchasing-power-of-american-households">growth in real earnings</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker">wage growth</a>.Below are some of the signs the economy is thriving, as well as some warning signs.<h2>Labor market data is mostly positive</h2>The labor market is still stable despite gradually slowing, Kimbrough said during the forum. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-labor-market-unemployment-rate-wage-growth-january-economy-2024-2">US added more jobs than expected in January</a>, and the unemployment rate stayed at a low 3.7%.Additionally, real income increased nationwide after the pandemic-era stimulus measures in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cares-act-stimulus-checks-impact-saved-12million-poverty-boosted-economy-2020-7">CARES Act</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stimulus-biden-signs-trillion-covid-relief-package-checks-direct-payments-2021-3">American Rescue Plan Act</a>, which has made some households feel wealthier. Americans have been spending down that windfall lately — the personal saving rate is "very low," Giannoni said.Giannoni said the labor market "remains pretty tight" and added there is a "strong feedback loop" between the labor market and consumption habits.That is, firms add jobs, which means additional income for workers. Giannoni said "this income fuels consumption" and with the consumer buying various goods and services, consumers keep labor demand strong "so that firms keep adding jobs. As a result, firms are trying to produce more to meet the demand," although they might need to increase prices if they can't keep up with that demand.<h2>Americans are more confident</h2>With an index of 114.8 in January, The Conference Board <a target="_blank" href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence">Consumer Confidence Index</a>, which analyzes how consumers view factors such as business outlook and employment, was the highest reading since December 2021. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's <a target="_blank" href="https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/">Index of Consumer Sentiment</a>, which assesses factors surrounding current and future spending and saving, had a score of 79.0 in January, up nearly 22% from a year prior.While consumers are feeling confident, Giannoni said the US personal saving rate of 3.7% isn't sustainable long term.Giannoni added that over time, "I would expect consumption growth to be slightly lower than the income growth in order for the saving rate to gradually move back up to levels that have been seen as more sustainable over time. That, I think, creates some downside risk to — potentially — to demand as a whole."<h2>The Fed is optimistic but may wait to cut interest rates</h2>Long-awaited interest rate cuts might not happen in March as the economy remains strong and inflation stays higher than the Fed desires. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/first-fed-interest-rate-cut-outlook-inflation-bank-of-america-2024-2">Fed Chair Jerome Powell</a> said at the Federal Open Market Committee <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIcrvB5Rf9k">press conference</a> in January, "I don't think it's likely that the Committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March as the time to do that" based on January's meeting.Powell said during the press conference that the Fed is looking for "greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down" to the Fed's 2% target."We want to see more good data. It's not that we're looking for better data," Powell said.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-consumer-price-index-january-housing-food-energy-prices-2024-2">CPI data</a> released Tuesday showed the year-over-year percent change in January was 3.1%, which is lower than December's but not as substantial a cooldown as economists hoped to see.Given there are more data releases coming before the next FOMC meeting in March, NerdWallet's Elizabeth Renter said in Tuesday's commentary that this "doesn't mean <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-consumer-price-index-january-housing-food-energy-prices-2024-2">today's inflation numbers</a> don't matter, but rather that they're a single touchpoint in a catalog of recent-past and upcoming indicators.""The Fed is not trying to crush the job market; they're trying to sort of crush job openings without doing anything that leads to an accelerated move-up in unemployment," Sonders said. "I think they don't believe that they have made enough headway on that front."<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/first-fed-interest-rate-cut-outlook-inflation-bank-of-america-2024-2">Many economists</a> said they expect the Fed to push back when they will drop rates, with some thinking it won't be until <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/first-fed-interest-rate-cut-outlook-inflation-bank-of-america-2024-2">June</a>. Giannoni said in the forum rates may fall in May, followed by cuts at every other meeting after that in 2024, provided that inflation continues to come down and the economy gradually decelerates."They're not really looking for something to break — I think they're maybe looking for something to bend," Sonders said.<h2>But monthly job openings are falling</h2>Still, there might be some unfavorable signs for workers. Giannoni said there’s been "some moderation on the demand for labor on the part of firms."Sonders said <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/layoffs-sweeping-us-these-are-companies-making-cuts-2024">layoff announcements</a> have been "quite a bit more top-down in nature than bottom-up" as is typically the case. These <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-layoffs-why-keep-hearing-about-tech-media-job-cuts-2024-1">layoffs</a> have targeted higher-income employees and managers, many of whom may have not rushed to the unemployment office due to severance packages or quickly finding another role, Sonders said.Regardless of who is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-get-job-this-year-network-resume-skills-certificates-unemployment-2024-1">looking for work</a>, they might not find as many opportunities as in recent years. The number of job openings per unemployed person was 1.4 in December, which is well above the historical average but below the highs seen in 2022.Giannoni said there's still higher demand in some sectors compared to before the pandemic. Health services, leisure and hospitality, and professional business services are some of the areas with demand, Giannoni added. The hiring pace has also slowed — Kimbrough said it’s about 10% slower than a year ago. Kimbrough said only about 10% of roles are remote, though "job seekers overwhelmingly apply to remote roles."Data suggests workers are increasingly transitioning between jobs, which suggests some degree of optimism, Kimbrough said. The economists said the unemployment rate could rise faster than many expect — such as to 5% or 6%, Kimbrough noted — due to sudden risks, though the data does not support any major shocks. <h2>Many lower-income Americans are still hurting</h2><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-get-rich-wealthy-americans-inflation-climate-change-investments-2023-12">Household wealth</a> has also increased across many income levels, though high-income households saw particularly sizable increases.Despite that increase in net worth, lower-income quartiles are impacted more by inflation and high rates than higher-income Americans who may have bought a home decades ago. That has contributed to continuing distress about personal finances and the economy. Kimbrough said lower-income Americans have particularly relied on credit cards, hinting at some fragility.<h2>Housing inventory levels are low</h2>Sonders said homebuyers were smart for sticking to fixed-rate mortgages instead of adjustable rates. Still, there was a sharp fall in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-outlook-home-sales-real-estate-mortgage-rates-buyers-2024-1">existing home sales</a> when mortgage rates increased from 3% to 7% in 2022, which caused home prices to fall briefly before rising again."If you had a 3% mortgage, there wasn't really much incentive to sell and then have to double your payment," Sonders said. "So it's sort of stuck the existing market, putting all the action in the new home market, which is only about 15% of the overall residential real estate market."Homebuyers aren't the only ones facing a shortage of options. New York City's rental inventory, for instance, is especially low. A recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nyc.gov/site/hpd/news/007-24/new-york-city-s-vacancy-rate-reaches-historic-low-1-4-percent-demanding-urgent-action-new#/0">press release</a> about the New York City Housing and Vacancy Survey noted that the vacancy rate was 1.4% in 2023. Nationwide, Giannoni said there is still a fairly low housing inventory and anticipates demand will continue to be strong for the next decade. Low housing inventory began prior to the pandemic, and then "people wanted more space and wanted more homes because of the pandemic," Giannoni said."I think this will be a growing part of the investment pie within GDP, maybe not very near term given all the uncertainties that we have been talking about, but I think there are interesting opportunities for investment in not just residential investment but business capital spending," Sonders said. "I think the investment side of our economy is going to start to chip away a little bit at the discretionary consumption weight in our economy."

3 signs the economy is thriving — and 3 red flags to monitor

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Personal Finance advertising partners include: <h3 class="faq-question">Auto Insurance</h3>Insure.com<h3 class="faq-question">Auto Loans</h3><ul class="faq-answer"><li>myAutoloan.com</li></ul><h3 class="faq-question">Banking</h3><ul class="faq-answer"><li>American Express</li><li>Aspiration </li><li>Axos Bank</li><li>Barclays</li><li>BlueVine</li><li>Brex</li><li>BusyKid</li><li>CIT Bank</li><li>Chase</li><li>Checks SuperStore</li><li>Chime</li><li>CIT Bank</li><li>Current</li><li>Dave Spending Account</li><li>eToro.com</li><li>First National Bank</li><li>GoHenry</li><li>HSBC</li><li>Juno</li><li>Lili</li><li>Melio</li><li>nbkc bank</li><li>Novo Bank</li><li>OnPath</li><li>PayPal</li><li>Quontic Bank</li><li>Save</li><li>Silver Gold Bull Profit Trove</li><li>Spruce Money</li><li>Step - banking for the next generation</li><li>Valley Direct Bank</li><li>Yotta</li></ul><h3 class="faq-question">Credit Cards</h3><ul class="faq-answer"><li>American Express</li><li>Brex</li><li>Capital Bank</li><li>Capital One</li><li>Chase</li><li>Coastal Bank</li><li>Credit One</li><li>Discover</li><li>M1</li><li>Pentagon FCU</li><li>Ramp</li><li>Revenued</li><li>Save</li><li>Synchrony Bank</li><li>US Bank</li><li>Verizon Wireless</li><li>Wells Fargo</li></ul><h3 class="faq-question">Credit Monitoring &amp; Credit Building</h3><ul class="faq-answer"><li>Aura</li><li>Credit Saint</li><li>CreditRepair.com</li><li>CreditSesame</li><li>Experian.com</li><li>Identity Guard</li><li>IdentityForce</li><li>IdentityIQ</li><li>Kikoff</li><li>Legal Shield</li><li>LexingtonLaw</li><li>Life Lock</li><li>MyFreeScoreNow.com</li><li>Self, Inc.</li><li>SkyBlue</li><li>The Credit Pros</li></ul><h3 class="faq-question">Home Insurance</h3><ul><li class="faq-answer">Insurify</li></ul><h3 class="faq-question">Investing</h3><ul class="faq-answer"><li>Ally Invest</li><li>Betterment</li><li>Bitcoin IRA</li><li>Capitalize</li><li>DLP Capital</li><li>Doorvest</li><li>Equity Multiple</li><li>Fabric by Gerber Life</li><li>Fidelity</li><li>Fundrise</li><li>Gemini</li><li>Personal Capital</li><li>Public</li><li>Streetbeat</li><li>TD Ameritrade</li><li>Uphold</li><li>Wealthfront</li><li>Zacks Trade</li></ul><h3 class="faq-question">Life Insurance</h3><ul class="faq-answer"><li>AIG Life Insurance</li><li>Ethos Life Insurance</li><li>Fabric Life Insurance</li><li>Ladder Life Insurance</li><li>Policygenius</li></ul><h3 class="faq-question">Mortgages/Home Warranties</h3><ul class="faq-answer"><li>American Home Shield</li><li>America's 1st Choice Home Club</li><li>Amerisave Mortgage</li><li>Arrived Homes</li><li>Better Mortgage</li><li>Choice Home Guard</li><li>Cinch Home Services</li><li>First Premier</li><li>Guild Mortgage</li><li>Liberty Home Guard</li><li>Quicken Loans </li><li>Rocket Mortgage</li><li>Select</li><li>New American Funding</li><li>Veterans United</li></ul><h3 class="faq-question">Miscellaneous</h3><ul><li class="faq-answer">Rakuten</li><li class="faq-answer">Rocket Money</li></ul><h3 class="faq-question">Personal Loans</h3><ul class="faq-answer"><li>AmOne</li><li>CashAdvance</li><li>Fiona</li><li>LendingTree</li><li>Payoff</li><li>Possible Finance</li><li>SoFi</li></ul><h3 class="faq-question">Pet Insurance</h3><ul class="faq-answer"><li>ASPCA</li><li>Chewy</li><li>Embrace</li><li>Figo</li><li>Healthy Paws</li><li>Lemonade</li><li>ManyPets</li><li>MetLife</li><li>Nationwide</li><li>Pet Plan</li><li>Prudent</li><li>Spot </li><li>Trupanion</li></ul><h3 class="faq-question">Student Loans</h3><ul class="faq-answer"><li>Ascent</li><li>College Ave</li><li>Credible</li><li>Earnest</li><li>SoFi</li></ul><h3 class="faq-question">Taxes</h3><ul class="faq-answer"><li>E-file.com</li><li>FreeTaxUSA</li><li>H&amp;R Block</li><li>Liberty Tax</li><li>Tax Slayer</li><li>TurboTax</li></ul><h3 class="faq-question">Travel Insurance</h3><ul class="faq-answer"><li>SquareMouth</li><li>Faye Travel Insurance</li></ul>Interested in how our other Commerce verticals, like Reviews and Coupons, work with advertisers? 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Personal Finance Advertising Policy

<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kelce-twin-brother-manager-make-him-famous-taylor-swift-2024-1">Travis Kelce</a> is everywhere right now. The Kansas City Chiefs tight end has gone from "guy who is very good at football" to "guy whose name I say more than my own" in the span of mere months. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kelce-favorite-taylor-swift-song-anti-hero-2024-2">Taylor Swift</a> factor is obviously a big part of it — dating the world's most famous pop star will get you into the limelight — but Kelce is a mini-media mogul in his own right. He hosts a popular podcast. He's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kelces-brand-partnerships-boosted-by-taylor-swift-rumors-2023-10">a spokesperson for getting vaccinated</a>, buying insurance, and eating soup. And now, he would like to talk about everybody's — credit scores.Lately, my X, formerly Twitter, feed has been filled with a particular sponsored <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/Experian_US/status/1751515458312839406">post</a> from Experian, one of the three big credit bureaus in the US, that features a surprised-looking Kelce asking a pretty personal question: Do you know your FICO score? It's the type of message that can briefly fill you with panic since <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/what-is-a-credit-score">credit scores </a>can make or break your financial life. It's also the type of message that, if you take a beat, has more to unpack. What does Travis Kelce know about personal finance? More importantly, why is a credit bureau, which ostensibly exists to help American Express decide whether to give someone a credit card, advertising directly to people at all?Back in October, Experian announced it was launching a campaign with Kelce to "help consumers score a financial touchdown" by signing up for the credit bureau's "Smart Money" checking account. Its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHb63pZ39FY">ads featuring the Chiefs player</a> have since flooded TV and social media. One of the main selling points of the Smart Money account is access to Experian Boost, a product that can help people increase their credit scores. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/how-is-credit-score-calculated">Credit scores</a> are calculated based on your track record of paying back loans, from the small, such as your monthly credit-card bill, to the massive, like a mortgage. How long you've been a borrower, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/what-is-a-good-credit-score">how much you owe</a>, and how often prospective new lenders are checking your credit are all taken into account. But a lot of regular transactions that could, in theory, prove your financial reliability are missed by the traditional process. So when you sign up for Boost, you allow Experian to scan your bank account for other regular payments — say, those to Netflix or the electric company — and lets you add them to your Experian credit file. Experian says Boost increases credit scores by an average of 13 points. When I tried it on my Citibank checking account, it increased my FICO score by 7. (You don't have to have an account with Experian to use Boost, which is free.)<div type="image" title="Travis Kelce." height="1666" width="2500" msid="107458712" hostid="261"></div>On its face, this seems pretty useful: Why not get credit for payments you're already trying to make? But when you dig deeper, the offering is actually a little meh. The checking account and debit card are pretty vanilla, and Boost doesn't guarantee a higher credit score. Even if you do get one, it's not necessarily super meaningful. Plus, Experian is just one of the three big agencies, so Boost won't affect scores from its competitors, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-get-higher-credit-score-medical-debt-credit-reporting-2023-11">TransUnion and Equifax</a>. Also, FICO scores <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/what-is-an-excellent-credit-score">range from 300 to 850</a> — so a 7-point uptick isn't suddenly going to open the door to a lot of new loans. In fact, it's unclear whether lenders are taking this alternative data, meaning information not usually included in credit scoring, into account at all. The Boost-sourced data is cherry-picked — you get to decide to offer up when you pay on time, not when you pay late — and it's incomplete. When you go in for a mortgage, the bank may simply not care whether you paid your Netflix bill on time."It is certainly better to improve one of the three reports than none, but if your lender doesn't use Experian, then the help from Boost is largely irrelevant," Matt Schulz, the chief credit analyst at LendingTree, said.While the Kelce package is a mixed bag for the consumer, on Experian's end, the math is pretty good. For one thing, experts told me, Experian likely gets a cut of the swipe fee on the debit cards — the charge merchants pay every time a customer uses their card. For larger banks with over $10 billion in assets, the amount that they can collect from swipe fees is capped at $0.21 per transaction, plus 0.05% of the transaction value. But because Experian is partnering with a <a target="_blank" href="https://cdr.ffiec.gov/Public/ViewFacsimileDirect.aspx?ds=call&amp;idType=fdiccert&amp;id=57129&amp;date=09302023">small bank</a>, it can circumvent the cap, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-the-debit-card-interchange-rules-mean-for-consumers-2011-6">allowing the company to collect even more revenue</a>. That probably explains why there's a $75,000 limit on the accounts, said Aaron Klein, a senior fellow in economics at the Brookings Institution and former Treasury official."It's a national brand that people are familiar with, with a national spokesman, for a tiny bank that's going to be able to generate two to almost four times the swipe fee of the big banks," he said.Swipe fees are nice, but the bigger get for Experian is probably the data, whether obtained by persuading people to sign up for a debit card, attach their bank account to Boost, or just hand over their email and create an account. It can then <a target="_blank" href="https://www.inc.com/associated-press/equifax-data-money.html">sell that data</a> onward or use it to try to sell people other financial products, such as a consumer loan or a new credit card, for which Experian gets paid."They can both refer you to loans and perhaps sell you additional products, like credit monitoring," Rajiv Bhatia, an equity-research analyst at Morningstar, said.Experian has historically been the most <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/credit-bureau-experian-equifax-transunion">direct-to-consumer-focused of the three bureaus</a> — after its 2017 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/equifax-breach-check-details-update-2018-5">data breach</a>, Equifax would like for you to forget it exists, and TransUnion does some DTC advertising but not as much. "Experian has always been the most aggressive," Chi Chi Wu, an attorney at the National Consumer Law Center who focuses on consumer credit, said. It's gotten them into hot water with regulators in the past, including over <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2005/08/marketer-free-credit-reports-settles-ftc-charges-0">marketing</a> of not-so-free "free" credit reports and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2023/08/ftc-charges-experian-spamming-consumers-who-signed-company-accounts-marketing-emails-they-couldnt">spamming</a> consumers with marketing emails they couldn't make stop. When I reached out to Experian to talk about its consumer business, Boost, and Kelce, a spokesperson for the company said that while Experian was "widely known as a credit bureau," it's a "data and technology business using innovative technology to modernize an industry and provide real-time data to help consumers and businesses." She added that more than 14 million consumers had used Boost and that working with "ambassadors" such as Kelce complemented Experian's mission "in trying to reach a wide and diverse audience with information about the resources we offer."As a general rule, it's not a great idea to listen to advertising from celebrities pitching financial products, including Kelce — or Swift, who does ads for Capital One. It's not that anyone here is bad for taking ad dollars or that companies are nefarious for trying to reel consumers in, but there's a fundamental information asymmetry at play here. As with many financial products, it's helpful sometimes to just ask, "What's in it for them?" Especially when it's a credit bureau — perhaps a necessary evil in the economy but not really your best friend.As for the Kelce-Boost package, it's not going to ruin your life if you sign up, but you're handing over data you might later come to regret providing, and you'll wind up with more spammy emails in your inbox. Experian, not the consumer, is the real winner here."I am highly dubious that your FICO score will materially change as a result of this," Klein said. "But America is filled with people with bad credit scores who want to improve, and probably a lot of them are football fans."<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/emily-stewart">Emily Stewart</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider, writing about business and the economy.

Travis Kelce: Super Bowl legend, Taylor Swift's boyfriend, and … personal finance guru?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A court-appointed monitor in Trump's fraud case said his company filed disclosures with "errors."</li><li>Tucked in a footnote is also an indication he may have committed tax fraud, per The Daily Beast.</li></ul>Tucked into a footnote in a letter written by former federal judge Barbara Jones, the court-appointed special monitor overseeing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-ny-fraud-verdict-could-kill-the-trump-organization-2023-12">Donald Trump's New York business fraud case</a> is a bombshell that appears to indicate the former president may have engaged in massive tax evasion, according to a new report released by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-dollar50-million-mystery-debt-looks-like-tax-evasion/">The Daily Beast</a>.The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24388438-barbara-jones-trump-letter">letter</a>, first reported by <a target="_blank" href="https://themessenger.com/politics/trump-barbara-jones-incomplete-inconsistent-disclosures-errors">The Messenger</a>, was delivered Friday to update Manhattan Supreme Court Justice <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-trump-fraud-case-judge-arthur-engoron-bio-2023-10">Arthur Engoron</a> on Jones' findings while reviewing the former president's business dealings through his company, the Trump Organization.In it, Jones writes that the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-accounting-tag-air-oge-financial-disclosures-ethereum-trademarks-china-iran-2023-9">financial information</a> filed to her by Trump's team has contained "incomplete" or "inconsistent" disclosures containing multiple "errors." However, she describes Trump and his businesses as "cooperative" with her investigation.But buried in the sixth footnote of the 12-page letter is what the Daily Beast indicated is a clue that Trump may have evaded taxes on $48 million in income, with Jones writing that the massive sum — which Trump has claimed for years that he owes as a debt to one of his companies — never existed."When I inquired about this loan, I was informed that there are no loan agreements that memorialize the loan, but that it was a loan that was believed to be between Donald J. Trump, individually, and Chicago Unit Acquisition for $48 million," Jones wrote.She added: "However, in recent discussions with the Trump Organization, it indicated that it has determined that this loan never existed — and thus that it would be removed from any upcoming forms submitted to the Office of Government Ethics (OGE) and would also be removed from subsequent versions of MAML," Jones wrote, referring to corporate financial statements filed by the company.Jones and Trump Organization attorney Alan Garten did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Business Insider.<h2>A 'pretty brazen' plot</h2>Garten told The Daily Beast an "internal loan" wherein Trump "leant money to the entity that he owns" does exist."That's one of many inaccuracies contained in the monitor's letter, which we will be addressing with the court," Garten told the outlet.However, per the Daily Beast, as recently as October, Trump has claimed in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.citizensforethics.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/OGE-Certified-Part-2.pdf">financial disclosures</a> that he owes the sum to his company, Chicago Unit Acquisition LLC, listing his debt as more than $50 million.The discrepancies, if true, would indicate that the disclosures Trump has filed with the federal government were intentionally submitted with inaccuracies related to the debt equating to tens of millions of dollars. "It would appear, assuming Judge Jones' letter is accurate, that this amounts to tax evasion," Martin Lobel, a tax lawyer, told The Daily Beast.He added: "This explains why the Republicans have been so intent on cutting the IRS's budget, because they don't want it to be able to audit transactions like this."The $48 million central to this issue has been scrutinized before. In 2016, the then-candidate for president told <a target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/24/business/dealbook/donald-trump-relationship-bankers.html">The New York Times</a> that he purchased an outstanding loan from several banks he owed money to and, instead of retiring it, chose to keep the debt outstanding and pay interest on it to himself.However, in 2019, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/09/donald-trump-has-never-explained-a-mysterious-50-million-chicago-unit-acquisition-loan-is-it-evidence-of-tax-fraud/">Mother Jones</a> reported a significant portion of Trump's debt was forgiven by the hedge fund he owed money to after he paid about half of it.So, instead of paying income taxes of up to 39% on the forgiven debt, the outlet reported, Trump "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-may-have-made-up-loan-tax-fraud-mother-jones-2019-9">invented a loan</a> — and then parked it." Debt parking is the process of purchasing debt using a corporation to avoid paying income taxes on it. The maneuver is legal as long as the borrower intends to repay the loan but is illegal to engage in indefinitely.Adam Levitin, a Georgetown University law professor specializing in commercial real estate finance, told Mother Jones at the time that the plot was "pretty brazen," adding: "if he didn't actually buy the loan, this is just garden-variety fraud.""While the reasons behind claiming this fake loan are still unknown, at the very least he misled the government for years about his finances," Jordan Libowitz, communications director at Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, told The Daily Beast. "It appears that Trump knowingly and intentionally broke the law. The only question is how many laws."

Special monitor suggests Trump falsified disclosures over $48 million loan in what could be tax evasion, report says

Finally... Friday <a href="https://twitter.com/dandefrancesco">Dan DeFrancesco</a> in NYC, and <a href="https://www.insider.com/deporting-pablo-escobars-cocaine-hippos-will-cost-colombia-35m-2023-3">we've got an update on the "cocaine hippos."</a>First, I need your help. I'm collecting readers' questions that I'll answer in next Friday's newsletter (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8h2qnRBzR0">A mail bag? For a newsletter? Groundbreaking.</a>) So if you've got Wall Street-related questions, <a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdMjEuxRfjIxiVYrzDOtFv5RwtfZM_ch2X4mRZgi3i887yH3A/viewform?usp=sf_link">submit them here</a>.Also, we've got a big people move. Merrill Lynch Wealth Management President Andy Sieg is leaving the firm to lead rival Citi's wealth business. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/merrill-appoints-lindsay-hans-eric-schimpf-andy-sieg-joins-citi-2023-3">Lindsay Hans and Eric Schimpf</a> are taking over as co-heads. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/merrill-appoints-lindsay-hans-eric-schimpf-andy-sieg-joins-citi-2023-3">Read more about Hans and Schimpf here.</a>Fun fact Friday: The concrete used in ancient Rome is actually stronger than the stuff we use today. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-secrete-ancient-roman-concrete-mystery-may-be-solved-2023-1">Here's why.</a>Today, we've got stories on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shake-up-at-quinn-emanuel-worlds-most-feared-law-firm-2023-3">the latest on what's going on at Quinn Emanuel</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/798b7ec0-4254-4404-b8d7-394f4093f10a?accessToken=zwAAAYczTMQAkc95i37AQlREBNO41zlPQJPxCg.MEUCIB_esM4KvfjQ-kdDMa3-p_i0fI-fqjdYWv-QURQ0kiVdAiEAg6tYcuBfgQU-crBlqb7BLqwb1tPZnzFynkAkcKr3j0w&amp;sharetype=gift&amp;token=58a1df89-c6a1-453a-9ff6-392911fe4fdc">M&amp;A league tables through the start of the year</a>, and <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/03/30/54d-is-nycs-hardest-and-most-expensive-workout/?utm_source=NYPTwitter&amp;utm_medium=SocialFlow&amp;utm_campaign=SocialFlow">a very expensive workout routine.</a>But first, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqcLjcSloXs">there can be only one!</a>If this was forwarded to you, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/10-things-on-wall-street">sign up here</a>. Download Insider's app <a href="https://www.insider.com/app">here</a>.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-jp-morgan-ceo-first-republic-bank-rescue-2023-3"></a>1. Who holds the keys to the kingdom?Finance is a game of ups and downs. From share prices to bank accounts to assets under management, the business amounts to numbers rising and falling. But it's not just numbers. The power held by key executives is a fluid situation, and one that can change at the drop of a hat. One day you're navigating the takeover of your biggest rival, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-29/ubs-names-ermotti-to-return-as-ceo-in-wake-of-credit-suisse-deal#xj4y7vzkg">the next you're looking for a new job.</a> Insider's Carter Johnson has a story on one executive whose profile continues to rise: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-jp-morgan-ceo-first-republic-bank-rescue-2023-3">Jamie Dimon.</a> The latest banking crisis has provided yet another opportunity <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-banks-svb-first-republic-jpmorgan-rescue-crisis-2023-3">for Dimon to swoop in as Wall Street's knight in shining armor</a>, and bolster his legacy. Carter's story got me thinking: Who's the most powerful person in finance? Jamie Dimon: Let's start with the JPMorgan CEO. When you run the largest bank in the world's biggest economy, you can all but guarantee a spot on this list. Dimon has long been the world's most visible banker, but the recent banking crisis solidified that position, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-jp-morgan-ceo-first-republic-bank-rescue-2023-3">as Carter's story details.</a>Ken Griffin: I've <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ken-griffin-citadel-hedge-funds-donating-politics-2023-1">made the case in the past</a> for Griffin being the top dog in finance. Let's recap: He founded one of the most powerful hedge funds and trading firms in the world, Citadel and Citadel Securities, respectively. He made the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ken-griffin-earnings-citadel-hedge-fund-markets-rich-list-investing-2023-3?_gl=1*gcch7u*_ga*NDEwMTkzOTE2LjE2NjYxMjcyNDQ.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTY4MDE5NDM3MC4xLjEuMTY4MDE5NDM3Ni41NC4wLjA.">most money of any hedge fund manager in 2022</a>. He's the richest person in finance, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/?sref=5xrDvJna">per Bloomberg's Billionaires Index.</a> Oh, and he's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ken-griffin-citadel-florida-desantis-politics-hedge-fund-2022-12">looking to influence politics too!</a>Jerome Powell: It's only fair to throw one regulator in the mix. With all due respect to Gary Gensler and Janet Yellen, this is a no-brainer. Powell's decision to raise rates over the past year has had the single greatest impact on the wider markets. Don't believe me? Go ask SVB.Larry Fink: When you run the world's largest asset manager, you need to be in consideration. Fink's the poster child for ESG, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/larry-fink-climate-backlash-annual-letter-2023-3">for better or for worse.</a> In addition to the trillions of dollars his firm manages, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-blackrock-financial-markets-advisory-business-consulting-aladdin-2021-6">he's also built a powerful consulting arm.</a> Fink's so powerful it's contagious! Even <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackrock-larry-fink-chief-of-staff-2023-2">working alongside him can supercharge your career.</a> It'll be interesting to see who tries to fill those shoes when he steps down. (If you have some thoughts, let <a href="mailto:rungarino@businessinsider.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Insider's Rebecca Ungarino</a> know.)Warren Buffett: Before you jump down my throat, realize this is a list of the most powerful people in finance not on Wall Street. While Buffett may not have the Street cred of the others on this list, he has something equally important: the ear of the people. Average Americans won't recognize most of these names, but they all know who Buffett is. That type of influence, while not evident on league tables or AUM, greatly matters. (He also had a cameo in "<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZBwa-THGwM">The Office,</a>" so there is that.)What do you think? <a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeJXj_ajcx9arey7r0wb5sJiQd8vVIID89b2Em5gDi95dGaEw/viewform?usp=sf_link">Place your vote here — or name someone else — for who you think is the most powerful person in finance. </a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-jp-morgan-ceo-first-republic-bank-rescue-2023-3">Click here to read more about how Jamie Dimon's legacy could be defined by his handling of the latest crisis.</a>In other news:<a href="https://nypost.com/2023/03/30/54d-is-nycs-hardest-and-most-expensive-workout/?utm_source=NYPTwitter&amp;utm_medium=SocialFlow&amp;utm_campaign=SocialFlow" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a><div type="image" title="pain and gain paramount pictures" height="1200" width="1600" msid="99145749" hostid="261" sizebytes="144610"></div>2. What's next at the world's "most feared law firm?" Check out this fascinating story on the shake-up at Quinn Emanuel, the world's largest litigation firm. John Quinn, the firm's founder and a legendary attorney in his own right, discusses the recent shift in power at the firm. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shake-up-at-quinn-emanuel-worlds-most-feared-law-firm-2023-3">Here's what's next for one of the pillars of Big Law.</a>3. Office buildings aren't in trouble... unless they're really outdated. Whether by choice or by force, people are coming back into the office. But the time spent working from home has raised expectations. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/office-buildings-doom-loop-companies-landlords-remote-work-from-home-2023-3">That's bad news for office buildings that need an upgrade.</a> Meanwhile, one group hoping office buildings figure it out: banks. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-banks-exposed-to-ailing-commercial-real-estate-market-2023-3">Here are 20 firms with some big exposure to property debt.</a>4. Companies people actually like working for. Workplace review site Comparably has released its rankings for the best companies to work at in in the New York and San Francisco metropolitan areas. Neither cities' lists had a strong showing from finance, but it's still worth checking out. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-companies-to-work-for-new-york-comparably-ranking-2023-3">Here are the top 25 in NYC,</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-companies-to-work-for-san-francisco-bay-area-comparably-2023-3">the top companies in the Bay Area. </a>5. They're always watching. A recent survey found 96% (!) of companies whose workforce is either mostly WFH or hybrid uses software to monitor employees' productivity. (Good thing reading 10 Things on Wall Street is approved by all companies.) <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/majority-remote-hybrid-work-companies-wfh-monitor-employees-rto-2023-3">More on how your boss is probably watching you right now.</a>6. M&amp;A league tables for Q1. The latest rankings are in for the top advisory firms through the start of the year, and there are some surprising entrants towards the top, the Financial Times reports. <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/798b7ec0-4254-4404-b8d7-394f4093f10a?accessToken=zwAAAYczTMQAkc95i37AQlREBNO41zlPQJPxCg.MEUCIB_esM4KvfjQ-kdDMa3-p_i0fI-fqjdYWv-QURQ0kiVdAiEAg6tYcuBfgQU-crBlqb7BLqwb1tPZnzFynkAkcKr3j0w&amp;sharetype=gift&amp;token=58a1df89-c6a1-453a-9ff6-392911fe4fdc">Check out the entire list here.</a>7. The average banker's bonus in New York this year was only $176,700. The industry saw roughly a 26% drop in average bonus size compared to last year, Bloomberg reports. One wonders how they'll survive. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-30/wall-street-s-average-bonus-dropped-26-to-176-700-last-year?srnd=premium&amp;sref=5xrDvJna">More on the plight of the banker.</a>8. Oh, Wells Fargo. Not again! The bank was hit with a nearly $100 million fine for letting a foreign bank make prohibited transactions, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-treasury-fine-wells-fargo-for-sanctions-violations-ac5b06d4">The Wall Street Journal reports.</a>9. This is why your Uber rating sucks. Uber drivers explained why users might have lower ratings than they expected. Why everything from leaving crumbs in the backseat (understandable) to loud friends (really?!) could end up knocking you down. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uber-drivers-five-star-rider-rating-tips-friends-wait-bags-2023-3">Find out what's keeping you from a perfect 5-star rating.</a>10. Meet NYC's "hardest, most expensive workout class." Few things seem to bring Wall Streeters more joy than paying an absurd amount of money to get yelled at while working out. Here's 54D, a fitness studio that's all the rage, according to the New York Post. <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/03/30/54d-is-nycs-hardest-and-most-expensive-workout/?utm_source=NYPTwitter&amp;utm_medium=SocialFlow&amp;utm_campaign=SocialFlow">Read more about the $5,400 workout routine. </a>Curated by Dan DeFrancesco in New York. Feedback or tips? Email <a href="mailto:ddefrancesco@insider.com">ddefrancesco@insider.com</a>, tweet <a href="https://twitter.com/dandefrancesco">@dandefrancesco</a>, or <a href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=b83e78f6bb45aba7034c3baf1ec66d1b6c1d3afa26264bdb8604d5b9f2351262&amp;postID=642598ea3295302f046d7530&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fin%2Fdan-defrancesco-29b12449%2F">connect on LinkedIn</a>. Edited by Jeffrey Cane (tweet <a href="https://twitter.com/jeffrey_cane">@jeffrey_cane</a>) in New York and Hallam Bullock (tweet <a href="https://twitter.com/hallam_bullock">@hallam_bullock</a>) in London.

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