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<ul><li>One of India’s top bullion and forex advisors <keyword id="219634" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jamal-Mecklai" source="Orion">Jamal Mecklai</keyword> has released a note explaining how a bank has been overcharging in a <keyword id="113706" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="currency-swap" source="Orion">currency swap</keyword> deal.</li><li>The spread on the loan as per what the bank was charging is 45%.</li><li>It would help if RBI were to at least highlight this kind of malpractice and ask for more disclosures, says Mecklai.</li></ul>Jamal Mecklai of <keyword id="579573" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mecklai-Financial" source="Orion">Mecklai Financial</keyword> has a suggestion for the <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>, following a complex currency swap transaction it advised a client on. The CEO of Mecklai Financial, a treasury and foreign currency risk advisor, has written a detailed note on one of its clients that engaged a global investment bank for its currency swap requirements. A currency swap is nothing but a transaction involving trading principal and interest in one currency for the same in another. A $1.5-bn company engaged Mecklai Financial to help it unwind a currency swap transaction it had entered into with a global bank. Currency swaps are taken by companies that have exposure in foreign currency payouts and may be receiving payments in some other currency. Mecklai explains the terms of the transaction and how it perhaps lacked transparency since India does not have a very deep currency derivative market yet. In this note he says, “We were called in recently to advise a large (about $1.5 bn) company on whether and at what rate to unwind a swap it had taken. The company had a $22 million loan at 3.57% fixed, and significant receipts in EUR and, in 2020 their bank – a large international player – had advised it, appropriately in our view, to enter into a EUR/USD currency swap to where its EUR flows could be paid directly to the bank who, in turn, would pay the company USD to settle its underlying loan.” <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Squaring off the swap" comment="subhead" text="Squaring off the swap">Squaring off the swap</cmsannotation> As the Euro has fallen since the company entered into this arrangement, the swap was beneficial to the client and the bank asked the company whether it would be interested in squaring it off and pocketing more than $1 million in gains. Since the company also had receipts in USD, which it could use to naturally hedge its loan payments, this sounded like a good idea (to us as well). Jamal Mecklai writes in his note that he asked for the loan cash flows and the date of the original swap. “We were horrified to discover that back in September 2020, the bank had charged them a swap rate of 3.65% – this meant that the company would have to pay the bank a fixed amount of EUR every six months with interest at 3.65% and the bank would pay the company a fixed amount of USD with interest at 3.57%. The issue was that in 2020 the interest rate differential between EUR and USD was around 0.75-1.0% so the swap rate looked outrageously high,” he explains. A currency swap works in two stages. In the first stage, the two entities exchange the principal amount at an agreed exchange rate, which is based on spot rates. Alternatively, a forward rate can also be set but it has to be agreed to in advance. This is done to arrive at the principal value. Once this is done then the entities agree on the interest rate, fixed or floating, the client has to pay on this currency swap instrument. In this case Mecklai Financial found that the interest rates were outrageously high. Currency swaps do come with risks to the bank like credit risk and capital requirements that are different across jurisdictions. Even with these elements priced in, the spread was too high. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="The client was unaware of the spread" comment="subhead" text="The client was unaware of the spread">The client was unaware of the spread</cmsannotation> The client, he says, was unaware of the spread on the loan, was happy to reverse the swap and brought him in for negotiations. The bank offered them $1.9 million to reverse the swap while as per his calculations $2.6 million. After negotiations, the payout was brought up to $2.3 million – but the bank still made a handsome profit of over $200,000 in addition to the ‘extravagant spread’ and the amount earned at the start of the swap. “This example simply illustrates the obvious fact that treasury corporate desks are trained to maximize revenue by lying to their customers. But banks overcharging customers is nothing new; Reserve Bank has long been aware of this problem and, about six to eight years ago, had CCIL set up the <keyword id="7811908" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="fx-retail" source="Orion">FX Retail</keyword> platform for spot FX on which anyone can get close to market rates,” said Mecklai. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/these-are-the-best-and-worst-performing-nifty-indices-in-2022-so-far/articleshow/94149156.cms">These are the best and worst performing Nifty indices in 2022 so far</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/cryptocurrency/news/ed-allows-wazirx-to-use-bank-accounts-frozen-after-raids/articleshow/94147873.cms">ED allows WazirX to use bank accounts frozen after raids</a>

The story of a currency swap that showed the shockingly high spreads, commissions and omissions by an international bank

<ul><li>US Dollar Index (DXY) is at its highest level in over 20 years, putting pressure on all other currencies, including the <keyword id="6355302" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rupee" source="Orion">rupee</keyword>. </li><li>A volatile currency makes it challenging for FPIs to carry trade flows in emerging markets, says Anindya Banerjee of <keyword id="66607" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="kotak-securities" source="Orion">Kotak Securities</keyword>. </li><li><keyword id="47621" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="mecklai" source="Orion">Mecklai</keyword> predicts that <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> will be willing to spend another $20-$50 billion to defend the rupee. </li><li>A recent report by Standard and Poor also said that India has built up buffers to deal with cyclical difficulties. </li></ul>The rupee fell below 80 against the US dollar yet again — a month and a half of hitting this record low. Even as the euro and pound depreciated on Friday, the rupee futures maturing on September 28 appreciated, amid weakness in crude oil prices. The rupee was supported by foreign fund inflows, said ICICI Direct’s currency analysts. The local currency, which has been volatile all week, fell to 80.11 against the dollar even as it was comfortably below this level in the last trading session at 79.87. But the hawkish commentary by the <keyword id="117388" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="us-fed" source="Orion">US Fed</keyword> has changed its course yet again. A research report by Mecklai Financial says that the US Fed is focused on taming inflation by continuing to raise interest rates and holding them there for as long as necessary, even if it means pushing the economy into a recession. “The moves have, of course, pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) to its highest level in over 20 years, which is increasing the pressure on all other currencies, including the rupee,” the Mecklai report said. The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/fpi-selling-intensity-abates-in-july-as-global-macros-improve-commodity-prices-cool/articleshow/93003529.cms">FPI inflows which have just turned </a>green in July after hitting record outflows in the last seven months – will now be under pressure too, due to the volatile rupee. “USDINR is on a strong wicket, with such a positive USD backdrop. A strong US Dollar Index, high US bond yields with a deeply inverted yield curve and weak equity markets all make it challenging for FPI and carry trade flows in emerging markets,” said Anindya Banerjee, VP - currency derivatives and interest rate derivatives at Kotak Securities. The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/it-stocks-in-the-red-as-us-businesses-brace-for-more-pain-ahead/articleshow/93845990.cms">Indian stock markets too saw</a> the full impact of the fall triggered across markets along the world by Fed Chair’s comments. Crude oil prices too have started climbing up to trade at around the $100 per barrel mark. Source: Mecklai Financial RBI appears unbowed in the ‘battle for 80’ The speed of the Rupee movement will be closely regulated by RBI, says Banerjee and Mecklai too agrees that RBI will join the ‘battle for 80’. The central bank has been intervening to hold the Rupee up against the dollar, by spending around $70 billion, this year. Almost $50 billion of this was released towards net spot sales, “but RBI appears unbowed” according to Mecklai. The report predicts that RBI will be willing to spend another $20 or even $50 billion to protect the level that they are not specifically focused on. However, it advises investors not to take any fresh bets on the rupee. Banerjee too says that RBI has twin objectives of not letting the Rupee become a weak outlier and also, not wanting the USDINR to become too volatile. “This means they may continue to sell USD as the spot and forwards moves to a fresh all-time high. However, this may not alter the trajectory of the pair and the path of least resistance would remain upward. We expect a range of 79.70 and 80.50 over the next one to two weeks,” he says. The ‘buffer’ that India has A recent report by Standard and Poors also <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/india-has-strong-forex-reserves-to-face-macro-difficulties-despite-the-recent-fall-sp/articleshow/93782057.cms">said that India is well positioned to battle</a> the cyclical difficulties caused by dollar dominance, high commodity prices due to the buffers it has built up. “The key differentiator for India continues to be that the country is facing these challenges, these stresses from a position of relative strength,” said Andrew Wood, director of sovereign and international public finance rating. In spite of RBI releasing a lot of its dollar into the spot market, its foreign exchange reserves stood at $570 billion as on August 12. Wood also said that he expects the reserves to recover moderately to around $600 billion by the end of this year, and remain relatively flat over the next few years. In September 2021, Indian forex reserves stood at $642 billion. SEE ALSO : <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/it-stocks-in-the-red-as-us-businesses-brace-for-more-pain-ahead/articleshow/93845990.cms">Nifty50 stocks in the red barring four stocks, more pain for IT cos ahead</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/pak-may-import-tomato-and-onion-from-india-amid-huge-surge-in-vegetable-prices-due-to-floods/articleshow/93845550.cms">Pak may import tomato and onion from India amid huge surge in vegetable prices due to floods</a>

Rupee breaches 80/USD mark yet again, RBI likely to come to the rescue

<ul><li><keyword id="91748" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="indian-rupee" source="Orion">Indian Rupee</keyword> hit a new low in November, in spite of weakness in the dollar.</li><li>Most experts say it’s weakening due to fundamental reasons, and the stress might remain.</li><li>Analysts say that <keyword id="6355302" type="General" weightage="60" keywordseo="rupee" source="Orion">rupee</keyword> is seeing resistance at upper levels and might trade in the ₹83.2 to ₹83.38 in November.</li></ul> The Indian rupee has been on a seesaw since 2022, thanks to a multitude of factors. A big reason for the weakness in the INR has been the sharp appreciation in the US dollar. The dollar index has steadily risen since the Federal Reserve started hiking rates and capital flows reversed from riskier assets. So if the US dollar should depreciate, the local currency should gain, right? But this has not happened in the last few weeks. The US greenback weakened and almost all currencies – Euro, Pound and Yen appreciated against the dollar in November, except the INR and Turkish Lira. On the contrary, the rupee hit a new low of ₹83.40 against the dollar on November 10, and has been volatile ever since. The reason, experts say, is pressure from importers. “The rupee has been under pressure, more on the side of fundamentals. Exporters are holding back to make a gain expecting the rupee to come down while importers have asked their banks to buy dollars now for future payments. This has led to a mismatch in demand and supply, which has pushed down the rupee,” explain Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. In the month of October, India’s trade deficit widened to hit a record high of $31.46 billion. That’s a sharp rise from $19.37 billion in September, according to government data. Another pressure point is the FPI sell-off that kicked off in September. Their net inflows have been robust at $12 billion in 2023. But since September, they’ve sold off stock to the tune of $5 billion as US bond markets became attractive. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="RBI’s men, horses and dollars" text="RBI’s men, horses and dollars">RBI’s men, horses and dollars</cmsannotation> It’s customary for the Reserve Bank of India to weigh in, sell dollars and pull the rupee when it falls too low. It has done so thrice earlier in recent times. The first time was in October 2022 when the rupee fell below ₹83 for the first time. It helped prop it up again in December, and once more in February 2023 when it threatened the same levels. “Finally, in August 2023, it once again fell below ₹83 and this time, all the RBI’s horses and all the RBI’s men were not able to generate sufficient upward momentum; since September 15, the rupee has struggled just below 83,” said Jamal Mecklai, CEO Mecklai Financial in his note on November 20. Like Sabnavis, Mecklai too cites fundamental troubles that RBI is unable to protect it from. But if it wants to, it’s in a comfortable position to sell dollars again. On Friday, India’s central bank said that its forex reserves have increased by $5.077 billion to $595.397 billion during the week ending November 17. Weakness to continue Most experts expect rupee to trade anywhere in the range of ₹83.2 to ₹83.38 to dollar for the rest of November. A breakout on either side of this range could provide further insight and guide future trading decisions, “We anticipate a slightly negative trajectory for the rupee, influenced by global market weaknesses and the prospect of a rebound in the US Dollar index. However, inflows from IPOs and a weak tone in crude oil prices might offer support to the domestic currency,” says Rahul Kalantri, VP of commodities at Mehta Equities. Future contracts too in rupee traded in a narrow range this week. Until more information on fundamental weakness comes in, the stress is widely expected to remain on the Indian currency. “The pressure on the rupee is likely to remain and an ‘orderly’ decline, whatever that means, is on the cards,” Mecklai sums it up. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/november-rain-for-primary-market-great-ipo-party-helps-companies-mop-up-of-1-5-lakh-crore/articleshow/105470997.cms">November Rain For Primary Market: Great IPO party helps companies mop up ₹1.5 lakh crore</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rbi-governor-asks-realty-companies-to-stress-test-their-books/articleshow/105411235.cms">RBI governor asks realty companies to stress test their books</a>

Rupee hits a new low in November despite fall in dollar index

<ul><li>Experts say some short-term correction from the all-time high in the next few months should offer an entry point. </li><li>Apart from <keyword id="18712" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold" source="Orion">gold</keyword>’s safe haven status, de-dollarisation is also adding to its lustre. </li><li>Investors expected to hold reliable safeguards like gold within their investment portfolios in 2024.</li></ul>Optimism for early Fed rate cuts in 2024 weakened the dollar and bonds, sending gold prices soaring to their highest point in almost three weeks recently. In fact, a <keyword id="113718" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-gold-council" source="Orion">World Gold Council</keyword> report expects one in four central banks to increase their gold reserve holdings which mean more demand. This and conditions in the Middle East have analysts expecting an upside in 2024 with prices moving towards $2,200. Market watchers expect the yellow metal to at least hold around $2,000 per ounce in the first part of next year. If the interest rate rate cycle has peaked, that should keep gold well supported. However, according to Ghazal Jain, fund manager of alternative investments at Quantum AMC, <keyword id="6377314" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cut" source="Orion">rate cut</keyword> expectations and the up move in gold is vulnerable to a reversal in the short term in case of a higher for longer Fed stance or hawkish Fed commentary to push back against market expectations and loosening of financial conditions. How gold prices may pan out According to the World Gold Council, as we look forward to 2024, investors will likely see one of three scenarios. The general expectation among market experts is for ‘soft landing’ in the US, a scenario historically not favourable for gold, leading to flat or slightly negative outcomes. However, each economic cycle differs. Presently, increased tensions on the world stage during important election years for major economies, along with ongoing central bank purchases, might offer added support to gold. Moreover, the certainty of the Federal Reserve successfully guiding the US economy to a safe landing with interest rates exceeding five percent remains uncertain. The possibility of a global economic downturn still looms, prompting investors to consider holding reliable safeguards like gold within their investment portfolios. <h3 style="line-height:1.38;background-color:#ffffff;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;padding:14pt 0pt 4pt 0pt;">The global economy faces three likely scenarios in 2024</h3> <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Economic Scenario </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Soft Landing </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Hard Landing </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">No Landing </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Probability </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">45%-65% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">25%-55% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5%-10% </td></tr><tr><td rowspan="4" style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Drivers of gold </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Opportunity Cost </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Opportunity Cost </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Opportunity Cost </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Economic expansion </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Economic expansion </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Economic expansion </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Risk and uncertainty </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Risk and uncertainty </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Risk and uncertainty </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Momentum </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Momentum </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Momentum </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Implied gold performance </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Flat with upside potential </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Notably higher (above record) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Flat with initial downside pressure </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody></table> Source: World Gold Council Most experts expect some short-term correction from the all-time high to the tune of 5-7% in the next few months – offering a brief but decisive entry point. “After the first quarter of 2024, we might see another positive cycle after interest rate cuts,” says Jateen Trivedi, VP and research analyst at LKP Securities tells Business Insider India.. Jain also says that the outlook is positive even if there could be some volatility in the next few months. The China factor There is another factor at play that can offer long-term support to prices is the aggressive central bank purchases of gold. Apart from the yellow metal’s safe haven status, de-dollarization is also adding to its lustre. “One of the main drivers of gold demand is China, India, Russia, and Turkey, which buy record amounts of gold to protect their economy from dollar fluctuations and increase their financial independence,” says a report by Kedia Advisory. China, which is the biggest global buyer of oil, has been in talks with Saudi Arabia to sell them oil in yuan since 2022. “It is possible that the Saudis may have asked for the yuan to be backed by gold, to bolster its lack of free convertibility. This could explain why the Chinese central bank has been buying more and more gold each year,” explains Jamal Mecklai, CEO of Mecklai Financial in his note. China has already announced its goal of raising gold holdings to 5%, and its share at the end of Q2 2023 is at 3.84%. “The possibility that China may see fit to push the share of its gold holdings even higher than 5%, we may well be seeing just the start of a real bull market in gold,” adds Mecklai. We have seen a very bullish 2023, and at this point in time, it’s very possible that gold may continue to shine in 2024.

The yellow metal will continue to sparkle in the new year

<ul><li><keyword id="19741479" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wedding-gold-sales" source="Orion">Wedding gold sales</keyword> are seeing recycling on account of high prices, but it’s a zero sum-game.</li><li>If allocation of gold is higher than 15% in a portfolio, profits can be booked but that is not strongly advised.</li><li>Experts believe that there will be another spike in <keyword id="46002" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="Orion">gold prices</keyword> in 2024, once the US Fed changes its stance on interest rates which will shift focus to gold. </li></ul>Jayasri Vadapalli, 54-year-old homemaker from Hyderabad has been trying to exchange her old-fashioned gold jewellery pieces for a while now. After gold prices hit a new-high in December, she was thrilled to hear that the necklace she purchased eight years back is now worth twice what she paid for. “I thought of exchanging it for another set,” she said. But her plans were thwarted as she learnt that she missed the festive-period discount season. As per reports, there has been a surge in people recycling old gold like her, during the ongoing wedding season. Prices are of no consequence as exchanging old gold for new jewellery is a zero-sum game, say experts. “There is no gain to be made when people recycle gold. In fact, it’s a bad idea to exchange when prices are high as no jeweller will give any offers when there is a rush,” Jateen Trivedi, VP and research analyst at LKP Securities tells Business Insider India. Book profits or hold? India is sitting on physical gold holdings which are estimated anywhere between 25,000 to 27000 tonnes. It’s all worth a lot more after the recent spike, but little can be realized from it, as most of it is in the form of jewellery — which is not sold unless there is a specific need or an emergency. “Traditionally, Indians have been advised to safeguard their future by saving or investing in gold. While considering physical gold, it is usually not purchased for investment purposes so they could hold it for their respective purpose,” says Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities , Mehta Equities. Agrees Trivedi,“There is no woman in India who would sell her jewellery no matter what the prices are or how much profits there are in it unless there is a financial crunch or need for family. The amount of physical gold in the form of bars which is held for trading purposes can be sold to book profits, but that percentage is very low.” It’s very unlikely that even traders would liquidate their holdings, since analysts expect gold to see another spike once the US Fed goes in for rate cuts to support growth. “We advise as much as 10-15% of the portfolio to be in gold holdings. Any incremental holdings can be sold to book profits as we look at gold holding strategically and not tactically. If prices run up a lot, they can be sold to book profits but prospects for 2024 look good, so they shouldn’t miss out on that,” says Ghazal Jain, fund manager of alternative investments at Quantum AMC. Should you buy more? Most experts expect some short-term correction from the all-time high to the tune of 5-7% in the next few months – offering a brief but decisive entry point. “After the first quarter of 2024, we might see another positive cycle after interest rate cuts,” says Trivedi. Jain also says that the outlook is positive even if there could be some volatility in the next few months. “We suggest individuals could consider shifting to Sovereign Gold Bonds, offering the dual advantage of gold investment and earning interest over time,” says Kalantri. There is another factor at play that can offer long-term support to prices is the aggressive central bank purchases of gold. Apart from the yellow metal’s safe haven status, de-dollarization is also adding to its lustre. “One of the main drivers of gold demand is China, India, Russia, and Turkey, which buy record amounts of gold to protect their economy from dollar fluctuations and increase their financial independence,” says a report by Kedia Advisory. China, which is the biggest global buyer of oil, has been in talks with Saudi Arabia to sell them oil in yuan since 2022. “It is possible that the Saudis may have asked for the yuan to be backed by gold, to bolster its lack of free convertibility. This could explain why the Chinese central bank has been buying more and more gold each year,” explains Jamal Mecklai, CEO of Mecklai Financial in his note. China has already announced its goal of raising gold holdings to 5%, and its share at the end of Q2 2023 is at 3.84%. “The possibility that China may see fit to push the share of its gold holdings even higher than 5%, we may well be seeing just the start of a real bull market in gold,” adds Mecklai. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/stellar-listing-gains-book-profits-if-there-are-bumper-gains-say-experts/articleshow/105630290.cms">Stellar listing gains: Book profits if there are bumper gains say experts</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/private-equity-vc-players-make-a-killing-as-ipo-rush-yields-them-10000-crore/articleshow/105649353.cms">Private equity &amp; VC players make a killing as IPO rush yields them ₹10,000 crore</a>

Gold rush: Don’t recycle or book profits yet, another bull-run on the way say analysts

The <keyword id="6354335" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> is not going to defend a falling rupee, saying it will result in rupee’s competitiveness. 
 
"The rupee may see a new (record) low, based on deteriorating external factors like China. A moderate or stable market driven rupee dollar range adds confidence to global investors while limiting space for speculative bets,” KN Dey, executive director at Mecklai Financial, told ET. 
 
The rupee weakened 10 paisa to close at 66.93 per dollar. 
 
"The RBI would not like a situation where the rupee continues to strengthen materially in real terms as that would result in disruptive adjustments required later," Brijen Puri, managing director, head of markets, JP Morgan (India), told the financial daily. 
 
Experts say that export struggling India will make rupee weaker by additional 10%.

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The yellow metal will continue to sparkle in the new year

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