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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The global population is getting older. </li><li>The trend will lead to lower returns, earnings growth, and valuations, JPMorgan strategists say.</li></ul>The aging of the world population is expected to accelerate in the coming decades, which will likely produce bad outcomes for the stock market, JPMorgan strategists say.The strategists say that historically, an older population has led to declining returns, lower earnings growth, and weaker valuations.Over a 10-year period, a 1% increase in the number of people over 65 is correlated with a 0.92% decline in annual stock returns, the strategists calculated in a report released last week.They point mainly to slower growth and falling valuations.With an older investor base looking to save for retirement, investment capital declines, leading to less innovation. That, plus slower growth in the workforce, will have a negative impact on earnings growth, the strategists say."Domestic population aging may reduce earnings growth for several reasons. It leads to slower workforce growth, reducing domestic economic growth. There is also evidence that aging can reduce innovation and productivity growth," the strategists said.That's especially true for companies that derive revenue from international operations, the strategists say."For companies that derive more of their revenue from abroad, like multinationals, global population aging (in a GDP-weighted sense) is likely to be more consequential for earnings growth than local population aging," the strategists wrote.That means equity market indexes with small and mid-caps will likely see more impact from local population aging than those with exclusively large caps.Valuations will also take a hit, the strategists said. As the elderly empty their retirement funds, national savings decline, thus raising bond yields. Older populations also pull out of the market at higher rates, driving down stock prices.Those trends, plus lower earnings growth expectations, justify lower valuations, the strategists say.The strategists say there's one bright spot, though. That's healthcare, which older populations tend to spend more on."We find a clear positive relationship between aging and excess returns on the sector, driven entirely by faster earnings growth," the strategists said.A 1% increase in the population share of those over 65 will lead to a 0.85% increase in health care returns over a 10-year period, the strategists say.The strategists note, too, that the populating aging trend won't impact countries equally. In China, the elderly share of the population is set to increase by seven percentage points in the next decade. The US, meanwhile, will see a more moderate rise from 18.1% to 21.5%.Past reports have also warned of the aging population's impact on the economy.Earlier this year, Barclays economist Jonathan Millar said boomers, a historically large generation, are approaching <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-gen-z-millennials-economy-housing-job-market-stocks-2024-2">"peak burden" on the US economy</a> in the next few years. Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-economy-outlook-us-stock-market-ownership-old-americans-retirement-2024-1">a larger share of people over 55% owning stocks</a> in the US may be a downside risk to the market, as older investors often don't have the luxury of holding through a downturn and could exacerbate volatility by selling during market pullbacks.

The world population is growing older. That's bad news for the stock market.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The dollar has gained since Trump's election and his policies could boost the greenback further. </li><li>A stronger dollar could suppress global trade and complicate inflation abroad, a think tank researcher said.</li></ul>Donald Trump's proposed policies are likely to give the US dollar a boost during his second term, but a stronger US currency has the potential to unleash chaos in global markets, according to one think tank researcher. Michael Klein, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank, wrote this week that the dollar will likely rise under Trump, despite Trump's own suggestion that he would like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-dollar-trump-presidential-election-weaker-usd-policy-intervention-trillions-2024-7">to see a weaker dollar</a> to slim the US trade deficit.That's unlikely to happen, Klein said, largely because the greenback's other currency rivals remain challenged and because Trump's policies are bullish for the dollar. "President-elect Donald Trump has a dollar problem. In recent months he has shown a clear preference for a weaker exchange rate to support the competitiveness of US exports and help reduce the US trade deficit. And yet, as the market has sensed since the US election, the much more likely outcome is that his policies end up strengthening the greenback. The risk is that the US dollar— which is expensive already — becomes more obviously overvalued, and this could increase the risk of global financial stability," Klein wrote.Klein said a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/strong-us-dollar-exchange-rate-companies-investors-inflation-interest-rates2022-7">stronger dollar</a> could be bad news for other economies around the world. Given how widely the greenback is used across financial markets, global trade could be suppressed if the dollar gains in value.Countries that find their currency devalued against the dollar, meanwhile, could have a harder time taming inflation."If and when the dollar becomes unsustainably expensive, a further problem will present itself: how to deal with an overvalued currency without risking a lot of financial dislocation," Klein said. "Without much scope for a negotiated decline in the dollar, more chaotic alternatives seem likely."Markets have already picked up on the likelihood of a stronger US currency under Trump's presidency. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">US Dollar Index</a>, which weighs the greenback against a basket of currencies, has climbed around 3% over the last month and briefly surpassed 107 on Thursday, its highest level in a year.Several of Trump's policies are supportive of a stronger US currency. Klein pointed to Trump's plans for steep tariffs, which include a 10% blanket tariff on most US imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.The US imposing tariffs on another country also tends to devalue the other country's currency, Klein added, due to traders selling the currency on foreign exchange markets. Such was the case in 2018, when Trump's trade restrictions on China led the yuan to depreciate 10% against the dollar that year, Fed data shows."More widespread tariffs on a whole range of US trading partners should therefore strengthen the dollar more broadly," Klein added.Economists have also said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">Trump's tariff plan</a> could stoke higher <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">inflation</a> and higher interest rates, which would prop up the greenback. Trump's other policies, like his plan to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-tarriffs-benefits-top-earners-study-2024-10">cut taxes</a>, could also add to price pressures, Klein said."Since boosting the US economy will create inflationary pressure, the market will expect interest rates to end up higher than they might otherwise be. The resulting combination of looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy tends to lead to a stronger currency," Klein said.Trump has pushed back on the idea that his policies could stoke higher prices, and maintained that he will push inflation lower during his presidency. He brought tariffs on some imports from China during his first term without a significant inflation increase, but economists say his tariff plan this time around is more wide-reaching, with a higher likelihood prices rise as a result.

Why a strengthening US dollar could spark instability in global markets in Trump's 2nd term

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as traders took inflation data and the outlook for rates.</li><li>Inflation rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on a yearly basis, in-line with expectations.</li></ul>The latest inflation data dented some of the momentum of the post-election stock rally, with traders focusing on the latest consumer price index reading at its implications for rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up slightly, while the S&amp;P 500 ended the day nearly flat. Bond yields were little changed, with the 10-year Treasury yield up one basis point to 4.449%. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">Inflation was slightly higher</a> year-over-year in October compared to the prior month, but was on par with economists' expectations. Consumer prices rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on an annual basis, higher than last month's 2.4% increase.Investors solidified bets on another rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting. Markets see an 82% chance that the central bank will trim interest rates another quarter-point next month, up from 59% on Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Traders are less certain about another rate cut in January. The odds of another 25 basis point cut at the Fed's January meeting have dropped to 29%, down from 69% a month ago."Inflation data mostly support another rate cut at the Fed's December decision," Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, said in a note. "The Fed will wait until they have more clarity about the timing and scope of policy changes from the next President and Congress before reacting to them.""The Fed wants to avoid the mistakes of the past by prematurely easing and risking a second wave of inflation, so we'd expect the FOMC to take this risk seriously," Jason Pride, the chief of investment strategy &amp; research at Glenmede, said in a note. "This doesn't take a rate cut off the table for December, but it's certainly not a slam dunk."The rally fueled by Trump's election began to stumble, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edging slightly into the red.Crypto markets, though, continued to get a boost after Elon Musk, a close ally of Trump, was appointed as co-head of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dogecoin-price-elon-musk-doge-department-trump-crypto-president-election-2024-11?_gl=1*j5rjww*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUyNDI1NS41NTYuMS4xNzMxNTI0MjY2LjQ5LjAuMA..">Department of Government Efficiency</a>, or "DOGE." <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/doge-usd">Dogecoin</a> spiked another 15% on the news, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">bitcoin</a> rose as much as 6% before paring its gains, surpassing the $90,000 threshold for the first time ever before dipping back below to about $88,000 later in the day. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,985.38, up 0.02%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,958.19, up 0.11% (+47.21 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,230.74, down 0.26%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>Here's what people are betting in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-markets-jake-paul-mike-tyson-bitcoin-trump-2024-11?_gl=1*4l4ww*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUxNTY1NS41NTUuMS4xNzMxNTE4NTU0LjU2LjAuMA..">prediction markets</a> now that the election is over.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-upside-blackwell-rubin-apple-iphone-moment-2024-11">Nvidia is approaching its iPhone moment</a> with its Blackwell chip, and the stock could soar another 25%, an analyst said. </li><li>Trump could push <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-us-debt-levels-government-borrowing-treasury-blackrock-rick-rieder-2024-11">US debt to levels</a> that can't be ignored within his first year in office, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 0.09% to $68.08 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.46% to $71.95 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slipped 0.87% to $2,575.98 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was up one basis point to 4.449%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> slipped to $88,615.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors assess rate outlook after new inflation data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Chinese markets rose after Trump's US election victory, despite tariff threats.</li><li>The markets boost comes as China is reportedly considering a $1.4 trillion debt plan.</li></ul>China's stock markets climbed higher on Thursday following Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election.The rise comes despite campaign pledges from Trump, a China hawk, to slap <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">a 10% blanket tariff</a> on all imported goods. He has threatened tariffs of more than 60% on Chinese goods.On Thursday, China shares rose with the benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/csi-300">CSI 300 Index,</a> closing 3% higher. Hong Kong's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/hang_seng">Hang Seng Index</a> closed 2% up.Market sentiment was buoyant amid hopes for news of a stimulus plan from the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress' going meeting, which ends on Friday."The odds for a larger policy support package will rise somewhat with a Trump victory," wrote Lynn Song, the chief economist for Greater China at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/what-does-trump-mean-for-china-ot/">ING bank,</a> on Wednesday.China's top legislative body is considering a plan to raise $1.4 trillion in extra debt over the next few years to fund a part of an economic rescue package, <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eyeing-us-election-china-considers-over-14-trillion-extra-debt-over-next-few-2024-10-29/">Reuters</a> reported last week, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter.Thursday's optimism in the Chinese markets contrasted with lackluster performance in Japan and South Korea, where the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nikkei_225">Nikkei 225</a> and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/kospi">Kospi Index</a> ended the day little changed.Analysts are also watching to see if Beijing will devalue the Chinese yuan now that Trump has won."Beijing might look to devalue the yuan as they did in 2018-2019 to counter tariff effects and boost export competitiveness," wrote Dilin Wu, a research strategist at brokerage Pepperstone, on Wednesday.However, this risks inflation and capital outflows in China, she added. The country is facing multiple economic challenges amid a real-estate crisis and high youth unemployment.On Thursday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://camlmac.pbc.gov.cn/zhengcehuobisi/125207/125217/125925/5499916/index.html">China</a> lowered its daily reference rate for the yuan to the lowest since late 2023.<h2 id="6256c5a9-f87f-4923-8fc5-278ad2fd51e1">China is preparing for Trump for 2.0 but still lacks leverage</h2>Despite the market optimism in China, analysts say Beijing could face a tough trade landscape."I think the challenge here is that China is still at a structural disadvantage in a trade war because they lack the symmetrical space," said Rick Waters, the managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice, at a press briefing on Thursday about the global implications of the US elections."They lack the ability to put tariffs on the US when the US does that to them," added Waters, who was the US State Department's top China policy official under the Biden administration.In Trump's first term, the US and China slapped retaliatory tariffs on each other. But Beijing is now left with "very little" to work with.However, over the last four years, Waters said Beijing has developed a framework of sanctions for individuals and companies that align with US policies that are anathema to China's interests. The moves include more export controls, including for critical minerals and rare earths."The first trade war was a game changer; many companies were caught off guard, and investors were left scrambling," wrote ING's Song."This time around, Trump's proposed tariffs have been in consideration for some time and should come as no major surprise," he added.

As Trump threatens tariffs on China, the Chinese market pins its hopes on a massive stimulus announcement

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The September jobs report exceeds expectations, adding 254,000 jobs and boosting investor confidence.</li><li>But Jon Wolfenbarger says trends still point to a recession ahead.</li></ul>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">September jobs report</a> gave investors renewed hope that the labor market continues to withstand the interest-rate hikes instituted by the Federal Reserve over the last couple of years.The 254,000 jobs added, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, well topped economists' expectations of 147,000.But Jon Wolfenbarger, the founder of investing newsletter <a target="_blank" href="http://BullAndBearProfits.com">BullAndBearProfits.com</a>, still sees a negative trend prevailing in the job market — and said in a recent note that the September report even showed cause for concern despite the strong headline number.That cause for concern lies in the number of government jobs added — 30,000 in September and around 500,000 over the last year. The sector has added the second-highest amount of new positions behind the private education and health services sector. This continues a trend of a growing ratio of government jobs to private jobs.Wolfenbarger, a former investment banker at JPMorgan and Merrill Lynch, pointed out that this ratio tends to increase in recessionary environments and said it's "not a sign of a healthy jobs market."<div type="image" title="all employees/government employees" height="482" width="1145" msid="114169736" hostid="261" sizebytes="20222"></div>Wolfenbarger is also concerned about other recent job data. He said the share of consumers in a survey from The Conference Board who say a job is hard to find is near 20% now, which could be bad news for an unemployment rate that has already risen significantly in recent months.<div type="image" title="labor market differential" height="479" width="714" msid="114169746" hostid="261" sizebytes="28814"></div>Job openings, new hires, and quits data also show a broadly slowing labor market. Quits fall when employees lack confidence in finding a new job, and new hires and job openings data backs that reality up.<div type="image" title="jolts" height="410" width="971" msid="114169740" hostid="261" sizebytes="14430"></div><div type="image" title="quits and hires" height="410" width="970" msid="114169748" hostid="261" sizebytes="22002"></div>Finally, the number of full-time employees has dipped into negative territory year-over-year, which has tended to happen during recessions.<div type="image" title="employed full time" height="387" width="972" msid="114169734" hostid="261" sizebytes="14806"></div>All of this is unfolding as the S&amp;P 500 continues to soar, closing at an all-time high on Friday afternoon. Valuations are also elevated across the board. In a September note, Wolfenbarger shared the below chart from Bank of America showing 19 of 20 valuation measures they monitor as being overvalued.<div type="image" title="stock valuations" height="344" width="706" msid="114169738" hostid="261" sizebytes="31634"></div>Given valuation levels, Wolfenbarger said that a recession would threaten to throw the market into a downward spiral."The valuation metric in this list that most accurately forecasts long-term (10-12 year) returns is the S&amp;P 500 Market Cap to GDP ratio," he wrote in the September 16 note. "It is currently 147% above its historical average since 1964. That means the S&amp;P 500 would have to fall 60% just to return to the historical average. If it fell below the average, the decline would be even worse."Wolfenbarger confirmed in an email on Friday that this still accurately reflects his views.<h2 id="53f4fe3f-7dc0-4077-b072-3b727fb1af75">Wolfenbarger's views in context</h2>Recent labor market weakening has put some economists and strategists on higher alert. But generally, a soft-landing consensus prevails on Wall Street, particularly after September's payrolls report.Markets now expect the Fed to take a more cautious approach to cutting rates so as not to flare up inflation again, whereas growing recession worries had investors cheering on a 50-basis-point cut in the weeks leading up to the Fed's September meeting.But it's still unclear how accurate the September jobs data is. David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, said in a note this week that 75% of initial headline jobs additions have been revised down in the last year. Future revisions and further lackluster jobs data could resume investor fears that a downturn is a serious potential threat.As for Wolfenbarger's stock-market views, the S&amp;P 500 has not seen such an aggressive decline since the Great Recession — one of the worst downturns in history. And many economists say that a potential recession would be shallow, putting Wolfenbarger's views on the margin versus Wall Street consensus.But in a market where investors have been eager to snap up gains from AI stocks like Nvidia, a sudden reversal in sentiment driven by poor economic data could prove painful for investors, even if not to the degree Wolfenbarger expects.

A 32-year market vet shares 5 labor market indicators showing the US economy is barreling toward a recession — putting an overvalued stock market at risk for major declines

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes slipped on Wednesday led by a sell-off in chip stocks.</li><li>Alphabet rose after delivering a big earnings beat.</li></ul>US stock ended lower on Wednesday as encouraging tech earnings were eclipsed by a sell-off among semiconductor shares. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/goog-stock">Alphabet's</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-third-quarter-earnings-report-q3-2024-2024-10#:~:text=Revenue%20from%20Google%20Cloud%20grew,%25%20in%20after%2Dhours%20trading.&amp;text=Alphabet%20and%20Google%20CEO%20Sundar,investments%20were%20%22paying%20off.%22">big earnings beat</a> helped send its stock up almost 3% in the session, but major indexes fell as <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chipmakers-amd-smci-super-micro-stock-auditor-earnings-report-guidance-2024-10?_gl=1*1ys7uu1*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDMxNDE2OC43NzkuMS4xNzMwMzE4MDQ4LjYwLjAuMA..">chipmakers suffered losses.</a>AMD and Super Micro Computer led the rout. The former fell on weak fourth-quarter guidance, while Super Micro plummeted on news that its auditor resigned due to company concerns. AMD dropped almost 11%, while SMCI plunged 33%. However, investors have more big tech earnings to look forward to.Shares of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Microsoft</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Meta</a> traded higher as traders anticipated their <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">financial results</a> on after the closing bell. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aapl-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Apple</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amzn-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Amazon</a> are on deck to report after the close on Thursday.Macroeconomic data released on Wednesday highlighted ongoing strength in the US economy, diluting concern that interest rates might need to drop quickly to propel growth.Third-quarter US real GDP came in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-economy-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">at an annualized rate of 2.8%</a>, driven by a strong consumer. PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, reached 2.2% — close to the central bank's target rate of 2%."This is excellent on the GDP, particularly when you look at the consumer spending," economist Claudia Sahm told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-10-30/gdp-report-not-one-to-be-afraid-of-economist-claudia-sahm">Bloomberg TV</a>. "It's not just one quarter: we have now put together four quarters that are about three percent growth in consumer spending, inflation-adjusted. "The labor market also appears strong, as ADP hiring rose by its fastest rate in over a year. The data potentially sets the stage for another big nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which will help inform the Fed's next move at its November 6-7 policy meeting. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,813.67, down 0.33% <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,141.54, down 0.22% (-91.51 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,607.93, down 0.56% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-us-vs-canada-david-rosenberg-bull-rally-2024-10?_gl=1*w92gmg*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDMxNDE2OC43NzkuMS4xNzMwMzE1OTIyLjU5LjAuMA..">Top economist David Rosenberg says Canadian stocks look poised to outperform the S&amp;P 500.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-undervalued-9-trillion-ai-spend-masayoshi-son-softbank-2024-10?_gl=1*15nw6jj*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDMxNDE2OC43NzkuMS4xNzMwMzE2MDk0LjQ0LjAuMA..">Nvidia is undervalued as $9 trillion is still needed for superintelligent AI,</a> SoftBank's CEO said.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-manufacturing-production-boom-economy-made-in-america-trade-war-2024-10">US industrial re-shoring could be a $10 trillion economic opportunity,</a> according to Morgan Stanley.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil jumped 2.38% to $68.81 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 2.31% at $72.76 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> inched up 0.59% to $2,797.6 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield stayed essentially flat at 4.282%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> eased by 1.43% to $71,786.57</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes slide as chipmaker rout drags tech ahead of key earnings

Ever since Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential elections, bitcoin has been surging, going up over 40% in the last two weeks. Recently, the cryptocurrency soared past $97,000, having risen 8.32% in just the last 7 days, and is currently trading at $96,906.09. The overall crypto market is also buoyant, with the crypto volume jumping 10.06% over the past 24 hours to touch $198.83 billion. The markets are enthused about Bitcoin's prospects going ahead, given that Trump has hinted towards establishing a dedicated role in the White House for deliberating crypto policies. Trump has been vocally pro-crypto and had promised, during his presidential campaign, to scale back <keyword id="24085738" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crypto-regulations" source="keywords">crypto regulations</keyword> and fire SEC chair Gary Gensler, who had initiated a crackdown on digital assets in the US. The crypto lobby in the US has been advocating for crypto-friendly SECs and access to banks. In a bid to do so, crypto companies have pumped in over $119 million to support pro-crypto candidates. Says Edul Patel, co-founder and CEO of Mudrex, "Market sentiment grew stronger from Bloomberg's report of Trump’s plan to establish a dedicated White House role for crypto policy. The anticipation of faster regulatory clarity coupled with BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF options projecting a $176k price target by 2026 has driven BTC’s price to the $95K milestone and beyond." The ongoing rally is not restricted to just bitcoin but also extended to Solana and XRP, which gained 10.85% and 59.02%, respectively, over the last 7 days. But does this mean that good times are coming for <keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> as well? Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives &amp; Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that bitcoin is a proxy for risk-taking in the markets. Bitcoin moving up means the risk appetite of investors is rising. Conversely, if it falls, then investors prefer safety." Both Nifty and Sensex have lost over 5% each over the last month. FIIs (<keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword>) have also been scrambling out of Indian markets, having withdrawn Rs 1,14,445.89 crores during October 2024 and offloading Rs 34,348.30 crore so far in November. During trade today, Nifty and Sensex remained in red, with Nifty down by 0.74% and Sensex down by 0.6%. DIIs (domestic institutional investors) have been trying to keep the market afloat in both October and November, pumping in Rs 31,636.77 crore in Indian markets in November so far. Last month, DIIs infused Rs 1,07,254.68 crore in the Indian markets. According to an NSE report, by the end of the previous quarter, FPIs holding in NSE-listed companies stood at 36.3%, despite the seventh consecutive quarterly decline. Previously, FIIs holding in listed companies had hit a record high of 39.9% in December 2021. In contrast, DIIs are increasingly making headway into the Indian markets. Active Domestic Mutual Funds (DMFs) have been increasing their investments in the NSE-listed companies. Their ownership in these companies has risen from 12.4% in December 2021 to 15.7% as of September 30, 2024. Banks and insurance companies have also expanded their market share. Their ownership in NSE-listed companies has grown from 8.8% three years ago to 11% as of pr quarter.

The Bitcoin rally does not seem to be stopping anytime soon! Does this spell good news for Indian markets?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed as investors looked ahead to the central bank's meeting minutes.</li><li>The release will offer more insight into what the Fed is thinking about monetary policy and inflation.</li></ul>US stocks were mixed early Wednesday as traders looked ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting, which should give further guidance on the path of interest rates for the rest of the year. All three benchmark indexes traded slightly in the red, while bond yields were up slightly. Investors will be parsing through the Fed's latest meeting minutes later on Wednesday, which will give more insight into what central bankers are thinking about the economy and the trajectory of rate cuts this year and beyond. Monetary policy is in focus after an unexpectedly hot job report in September, fueling doubt over whether the Fed will issue another jumbo rate cut this year."The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due, and should be fascinating," Paul Donovan, the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note. "The tone of the Fed minutes should not change expectations of further rate cuts—the Fed is still scrambling to catch up with inflation slowing in the US, and started cutting rates late. But expectations about the pace of easing may be set by the minutes."According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, the Fed is more likely to begin cutting rates in 25-basis-point increments rather than issuing another 50-basis-point rate cut."Even so, we still think the FOMC is putting undue emphasis on the current strength of the economy rather than the direction of travel and the lagged impact of earlier tightening still in the pipeline," economists at the research firm said in a note. "We expect a 25bp easing in November but think a soft run of jobs and activity data in Q4 and Q1 will soon have the Fed scrambling to avoid falling behind the curve."Central bankers will assess another jobs report and the September Consumer Price Index, which will be published Thursday morning, before making their next rate move. The inflation report will be a high-stakes data point for the Fed after the big September payroll report, with markets anxious that officials may have to turn their attention back to prices after pivoting to the labor market at their last meeting. Markets are pricing in an 88% chance the Fed will issue a quarter-point cut, while odds of another jumbo-sized cut have been slashed completely, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.Google parent Alphabet fell 1% in early trading as the US Department of Justice <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205.1052.0_1.pdf">indicated it could break up the tech giant</a>. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,752.93, up 0.06% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,194.38, up 0.27% (+114 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,150.47, down 0.18%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10?_gl=1*i6n3nu*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ3ODgzNS40MjMuMS4xNzI4NDgwNDc4LjMxLjAuMA..">The economy is facing a "no-landing" scenario</a> that could take away some relief from higher interest rates.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10?_gl=1*i6n3nu*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ3ODgzNS40MjMuMS4xNzI4NDgwNDc4LjMxLjAuMA..">Fed rate cuts were expected to push mortgage rates lower</a>, but the opposite has happened.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-q3-earnings-lower-rates-stocks-returns-outlook-bofa-2024-10">The bar for corporate earnings is low</a>. That's good news for stocks, as long as companies are feeling upbeat about rate cuts, according to Bank of America.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 2% to $72.06 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was fell 2% to $75.63 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slipped 0.39% to $2,612.00 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was about flat at 4.041%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> edged lower 0.8% to trade at $61,930.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed with Fed minutes and rate outlook in focus

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Welcome back! Mondays are probably the best day to start eating healthier. (Can't start a diet on a Friday.) And whatever your goals are, protein will play a key role. A nutrition coach breaks down <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/easy-calculate-how-much-protein-coach-olympians-2024-9">how to figure out how much you need</a>.In today's big story, the stock market has officially enjoyed a bull rally for over two years. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">So now what</a>?What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Jamie Dimon's retirement <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-political-ambitions-retirement-plans-jpmorgan-3q-earnings-2024-10">doesn't mean his exit from JPMorgan</a>.</li><li>Tech: Roblox investors are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/roblox-stock-recovers-after-short-seller-hinderberg-report-2024-10">shrugging off a short-seller's report</a>.</li><li>Business: It's the first day of work for Nike's new CEO. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-ceo-elliott-hill-takes-over-faces-challenges-2024-10">Here's what's at stake</a>.</li></ul>But first, time flies when you're making money.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Bullish on the bull market</h2><div type="image" title="Wall Street bull statue" height="4024" width="6048" msid="114217361" hostid="261" sizebytes="1697474"></div>Happy belated birthday to the stock market's bull rally!In case you missed it, Saturday marked two years since stocks bottomed out before going on a run. The Nasdaq 100 (88%), S&amp;P 500 (62%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (46%) have posted strong returns in the two years since.But don't worry about missing the celebration, because the party might be going on for a while. Stock market experts who spoke with Business Insider's Matthew Fox <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">don't see things slowing down anytime soon</a>.In fact, the average bull market lasts longer than five years, so we might not even be halfway to the finish line. There's no consensus on exactly how the next few years will shape up, but the experts agree they don't see a market downturn in the near future.Earnings season, which is in full swing this week, will provide more color on where things are headed. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-q3-earnings-preview-investors-themes-ai-interest-rates-2024-10">Expectations are high</a>, and for good reason. The S&amp;P 500 has enjoyed year-over-year earnings growth for four consecutive quarters.<div type="image" title="inflation dollar hovers over groceries" height="893" width="1786" msid="114217363" hostid="261" sizebytes="43390"></div>So, what's the case for the bull rally to continue?Past performance does not guarantee future results, so bull runs' history of sticking around doesn't mean this one will.But the first thing to consider is this bull market's resiliency.The past two years have seen multiple banks fail, a bond-market meltdown, and the unwinding of a trade tied to the Japanese yen that sent stocks tumbling. Interest rates also remained elevated as the economy battled high inflation.Beyond the financial markets, things haven't been much calmer. The war in Ukraine rages on, and there's arguably more violence in the Middle East than there has been in decades.Meanwhile, the run-up to the presidential election has been unprecedented. The sitting president shockingly ended his reelection campaign, and another candidate faced multiple assassination attempts.So yes, we've been through a lot, and stocks keep going up and to the right.While I can't guarantee things will calm down, there are some bright spots. There might not be more rate cuts this year, but the job market is strong and inflation is (mostly) under control. Whether we're in a soft landing or a "no landing," both situations are better than a recession, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-recession-outlook-prediction-labor-market-job-additions-interest-rates-2024-10">which seems unlikely at this point</a>.The actual stock market is healthier, too, as it's no longer reliant on the Magnificent Seven's performance. Instead, it's enjoying growth across different sectors, which gives it more immunity from industry-specific shocks.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>SpaceX's Starship <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-starship-fifth-flight-test-how-to-watch-2024-10">completes historic 5th flight test</a>.</li><li>'Let chaos reign': <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-players-startups-ai-inference-driving-prices-down-cheap-workload-2024-10">AI computing costs are about to plummet</a>.</li><li>The professor made porn. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/professor-porn-fired-salacious-free-speech-academic-freedom-2024-10">His firing may shape the future of free speech</a>.</li><li>Elon Musk says <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-launches-california-coastal-commission-2024-10">he will take legal action</a> after California officials cited his politics when rejecting SpaceX launches.</li><li>How Saudi Arabia could create <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-saudi-arabia-oil-price-war-supply-opec-cuts-2024-10">a crisis for Russia's economy</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of Jamie Dimon" height="500" width="1000" msid="114217365" hostid="261" sizebytes="20910"></div><ol><li>You can't get rid of Jamie Dimon that easily. The JPMorgan CEO has hinted at plans to step down in the not-so-distant future. But during the bank's earnings call, he also said there is an "almost nil" chance of him joining the next presidential administration as he plans to stay at JPMorgan "for a long period." <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-political-ambitions-retirement-plans-jpmorgan-3q-earnings-2024-10">Here's how both things can be true</a>.</li><li>Ken Griffin knows who he's voting for, and he's not happy about it. The billionaire hedge fund manager and Republican megadonor hasn't supported either presidential candidate. The Citadel CEO said he knows who he is voting for, but "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citadel-ken-griffin-election-taxes-florida-2024-10">it's not with a smile on my face</a>."</li><li>BlackRock wants to make alt investments not so alternative. The $11.5 trillion asset manager <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackrocks-next-big-bet-private-markets-2024-10">hopes to grow its private markets business</a>, which includes less liquid, more expensive investments with the potential for higher returns. It comes after securing $221 billion in net inflows last quarter, a company record.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Augustus Doricko sits in a desk with a huge American flag on the back wall." height="3739" width="4985" msid="114217359" hostid="261" sizebytes="612242"></div><ol><li>The 24-year-old wunderkind trying to make water out of thin air. With his new company, cloud-seeding startup Rainmaker, <a target="_blank" href="http://businessinsider.com/rainmaker-augustus-doricko-cloud-seeding-el-segundo-2024-10">Augustus Doricko has launched a God-fearing, cigarette-loving tech hub</a> in El Segundo, California. "Respect to Zuck, but I certainly hope the next cohort of people that build great things do it in the real world," Doricko told BI.</li><li>Roblox took an L and bounced back. The gaming platform's stock tumbled after a prominent short-seller accused it of inflating user numbers and failing to protect children from predators. Investors appear undeterred; after the drop, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/roblox-stock-recovers-after-short-seller-hinderberg-report-2024-10">Roblox's stock rebounded</a>, with Wall Street focused on its growth potential.</li><li>Twelve AI coding startups to watch. AI coding startups are having a moment as VCs look to invest in tools that automate the boring parts of coding and let developers focus on more creative tasks. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-code-startups-that-have-raised-the-most-vcs-a16z-2024-10">These 12 startups have attracted funding</a> from VCs like a16z and Menlo Ventures.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of expensive Erewhon groceries, receipt, shopping cart, and payment system" height="1000" width="2000" msid="114217368" hostid="261" sizebytes="117578"></div><ol><li>I've been a very brave Gen Zer. I'd like a treat. Inflation's got nothing on Gen Z's love of bougie snacks: Young people splurge on expensive groceries more than any other generation. The reason? <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-loves-expensive-groceries-snacks-erewhon-whole-foods-2024-10">Consuming health-conscious food is a show of economic power</a> — and everything else is too expensive.</li><li>Office vacancy may deliver some housing relief. The office sector will experience a wave of distress in coming years, real estate experts told BI. That might be good news for housing supply <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-office-outlook-fire-sales-apartment-conversions-housing-2024-10">as former offices get converted to apartments</a>.</li><li>It's Elliott Hill's first day as Nike's CEO. Can he just do it? Nike released its first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report on October 1, and revenue declined 10% from the previous year to $11.6 billion. Now, it's up to Hill <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-ceo-elliott-hill-takes-over-faces-challenges-2024-10">to lead a full-scale comeback for the brand</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>How rich Americans can save on taxes by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/upstream-planning-transfers-capital-gains-tax-stock-real-estate-2024-10">giving stock and real estate to their parents</a>.</li><li>Tesla investors don't seem to trust Elon Musk like they used to. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-twitter-wall-street-disappointment-self-driving-taxi-2024-10">Is that because of Twitter</a>?</li><li>Here's how natural disasters are shaping the buy-versus-rent decision <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-natural-disasters-buy-rent-florida-climate-change-risks-2024-10">in vulnerable states like Florida</a>.</li><li>Warren Buffett's company website looks like a relic from the 1990s — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-website-homepage-culture-values-billionaires-links-2024-10">but that's on purpose</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>It's Columbus Day in the US. In some states, like New York, it's a day to celebrate Italian American culture and history.</li><li>It's also Indigenous People's Day, which some states recognize instead of, or in addition to, Columbus Day. Thirty-five states and the District of Columbia mark this holiday.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

The stock market has officially enjoyed a bull rally for over two years. So now what?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks fell Monday as bond yields and oil prices moved higher.</li><li>The rise in oil prices and solid September jobs report has revived inflation concerns.</li></ul>US stocks retreated from near-record highs on Monday, with all three major moving averages declining by about 1%.A number of risk factors pushed stocks lower on Monday, including a jump in interest rates and oil prices, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-category-five-threatens-florida-fema-funding-2024-10">growing intensity of Hurricane Milton</a>, and negative news flow for a couple of mega-cap technology stocks.The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped back above 4% on Monday, representing its highest level in about two months. Friday's release of the September jobs report sparked the move higher in yields.The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll report showed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">employers added 254,000 jobs</a> last month, crushing estimates of about 150,000. The unemployment rate also declined slightly to 4.1%.Meanwhile, oil prices continued to surge on Monday, rising by about 4% as tensions in the Middle East continued to simmer on the first anniversary of the Hamas-led attack against Israel.The rise in oil prices and the stronger jobs report are fanning fears of a potential rebound in inflation, which would mean fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve."After Friday's strong employment report, the consensus might pivot to 'no rush to ease further' during the fall. We can't rule out 'higher for longer' making a comeback this winter. We are in the none-and-done camp for the rest of this year," Yardeni Research said in a note on Monday.Finally, a Wells Fargo analyst downgrade of Amazon sent that stock lower by about 3%, while Alphabet shares dropped 2% after a judge ordered <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-judge-orders-google-open-up-app-store-competition-2024-10-07/">the company to open its app store to more competition,</a> handing a victory to Epic Games.Investors will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-q3-earnings-preview-investors-themes-ai-interest-rates-2024-10">turn their attention to earnings season, which kicks off this week</a> with results from PepsiCo on Tuesday, followed by the first of the major banks on Friday.Finally, the September CPI report is also due out this Thursday. Economists expect the CPI index to rise 2.3% year-over-year in September, down from 2.5% in August. Bank of America analysts note that an upside surprise in last month's inflation reading has the potential <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-volatility-cpi-inflation-september-jobs-report-bofa-2024-10">to send stocks on a roller coaster this week</a>. Here's where US indexes stood shortly at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,695.94, down 0.96% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,954.24, down 0.94% (-398.51 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,923.90, down 1.18% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-nvda-smci-super-micro-100000-gpu-chips-2024-10">Nvidia stock jumped 4% on Monday after Super Micro Computer said it was shipping more than 100,000 GPUs per quarter.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-september-jobs-report-growth-value-david-kelly-2024-10">JPMorgan's chief strategist told Business Insider why he is feeling "increasingly queasy" about the market.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-trader-lost-306-million-according-to-lawsuit-rbc-2024-10">A Tesla trader turned $65,000 into $306 million before losing it all, according to a lawsuit.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-housing-market-home-prices-falling-austin-dallas-moving-trends-2024-10">Falling home prices and fed-up residents show the Texas housing boom is slowing down.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-outlook-fed-interest-rate-cuts-jobs-report-us-economy-2024-10">Consumer prices are still in focus for investors despite the Fed's recent pivot to the labor market.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-goldman-sachs-boosts-sp500-price-target-again-2024-10">Goldman Sachs increased its year-end S&amp;P 500 price target for the third time this year to 6,000.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude jumped 3.93% to $77.30 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 3.89% to $81.09 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was down 0.18% to $2,663.00 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was higher by 7 basis points at 4.032%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was higher by 0.82% to $63,335.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes drop and yields, oil prices spike ahead of earnings and fresh economic data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A blockbuster jobs report raises the stakes for upcoming inflation data, BofA analysts say.</li><li>The analyst predicted that an upside surprise to September CPI would stoke fresh volatility. </li></ul>The September jobs report was good news, but it gives investors more reason to brace for the next inflation reading, Bank of America analysts say.The analysts say last week's blockbuster jobs report puts more pressure on this week's consumer price index data, with a big surprise to the upside now more likely to usher in a wave of market volatility. They say the CPI reading, due Thursday, is "no longer a 'non-event.'""Following the blowout jobs report last Friday, we believe the importance of CPI this week has risen," the analysts said in a Sunday note. "A sizeable surprise could bring uncertainty on the easing cycle and more volatility into the market."They note that options are pricing in a 109 basis point move, or a little over 1%, in the S&amp;P 500 on Thursday when CPI is released, compared to forecasts of a 91 basis point move last week. That would surpass the three-month average of a 70 basis point move on the day of a CPI release, and a move of that size would be the largest swing tied to a CPI report since May.On the bright side, the analysts say that stocks can withstand a slight upside surprise if it is tied to strong macro data. "Good news is good news for stocks as long as inflation doesn't flare up again," the analysts said, adding that historically, stocks and rates have moved higher when inflation moves lower, and lower when inflation follows an upward trajectory.Economists forecast the CPI report will show inflation continued to cool last month, rising 2.3% year-over-year compared to 2.5% in August.As inflation has edged back toward the Fed's 2% target, the central bank has grown increasingly focused on the labor market after years of fighting inflation. That <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-explained-inflation-labor-market-conditions-outlook-recession-2024-9">pivot</a> was behind the central bank's decision to deliver a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut last month, the first cut in four years. However, with the blockbuster September jobs report, some economists say <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-outlook-fed-interest-rate-cuts-jobs-report-us-economy-2024-10">inflation is still a concern.</a> If this week's CPI data surprises to the upside, the Fed could be forced to turn its attention back toward pricing pressures in the economy. "CPI for September will be a key data release. If prices rise faster than expected on top of the stronger labor data, chances for the Fed to skip the November meeting will increase," UBS economist Brian Rose said in a Friday note.The odds of a 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed next month <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-fed-rate-cut-outlook-november-labor-market-2024-10">slipped</a> from 33% to zero following the release of the September jobs report, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>. Thursday's CPI reading will thus be a key indicator as investors anticipate the Fed's next move.The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">September jobs report</a> blew past forecasts, with 254,000 nonfarm payrolls added compared to expectations of 150,000. The unemployment rate dipped from 4.2% to 4.1%.

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