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Imagine a bustling jewellery market teeming with diamonds and gold. Amidst this glittering chaos, a small stall is trying to sell handcrafted gemstones. Even as newer and shinier outlets keep cropping up, all vying for attention, this gemstone store offers some of the oldest yet valuable jewels at a discount. Though they lack immediate sparkle, these rare gems reveal their value to the discerning buyer. This is how South Korea appears for many experts in global capital markets: a trove of undervalued gems, overshadowed by brighter, more aggressively marketed investment options. This undervaluation, known as the "<keyword id="24399183" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="korean-discount" source="keywords">Korean Discount</keyword>," reflects how South Korean companies are priced much lower than their global peers despite robust fundamentals — strong financial performance and consistent profitability. Contributing factors are many, ranging from opaque governance structures to geopolitical risks. But the fact stays, if you are a seasoned conglomerate listed in South Korea, you are likely undervalued. <keyword id="19906087" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hyundai" source="keywords">Hyundai</keyword> Motor India Ltd. (HMIL), a subsidiary of the Korean giant Hyundai Motor Company (HMC), recently sought to escape this valuation trap by listing in India, a market where investor optimism commands premium pricing. But its valuation raised many eyebrows! Now that a month and a half has gone by since its listing, time is apt to examine if this gamble paid off. Will <keyword id="93460" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="hyundai-india" source="Orion">Hyundai India</keyword> justify its high valuation? Or does the listing highlight broader questions about the overheated valuation dynamics of Indian markets? A record-breaking <keyword id="19898327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ipo" source="keywords">IPO</keyword> but questions remain Hyundai Motor India’s mega Initial Public Offering (IPO), launched in October 2024, broke records by raising ₹27,870 crore, making it India’s largest-ever IPO. The offer was oversubscribed by 2.37 times, highlighting robust demand. But many investors remained sceptical: was this IPO an honest attempt to expand Hyundai’s footprint in India or was it trying to offer a way to cashout for existing investors and promoters? Or perhaps, is it an attempt by the Korean chaebol — a large family-owned business conglomerate — to break free from the aforementioned “Korean Discount”? When shares listed on October 22, these concerns seemingly weighed on the minds of most investors and the stock promptly dipped 5% below the issue price on the day. A tepid grey market performance had already foreshadowed this muted debut in the Indian markets. Now, after almost 35 trading sessions on Indian market, the stock remains almost exactly at price it listed on October 22 at Rs 1820—no gain, no loss. <h3>The gamble of hyper-valuation</h3>Much of this hesitation stemmed from Hyundai’s valuation. On listing, Hyundai was valued at $18 billion, positioning it as one of India’s most valuable automotive companies. However, such high valuations often temper investor enthusiasm, resulting in more cautious short-term outcomes. For most investors, the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is the most preferred parameter to gauge if a company is overvalued or undervalued. With a P/E ratio of 26.3, HMIL was priced significantly above the Indian automotive industry average of 24.4. Globally, automotive companies operate with much lower P/E ratios, reflecting mature market conditions and slower growth trajectories. HMIL’s South Korean parent Hyundai Motor Company (HMC) trades at a meagre 3.07, believe it or not! For Indian investors, the high premium hinted at overvaluation despite Hyundai’s strong domestic position. Such stark difference in valuation obviously sparked debates — is the Indian market assigning a premium to Hyundai Motor India’s growth potential, or is it simply reflecting the general exuberance around the prospects of the Indian economy? Another concern is the allocation of IPO proceeds. Hyundai’s IPO was structured as an offer for sale (OFS), meaning all funds raised would flow to the parent company rather than Hyundai India’s operations. Although Hyundai has committed to investing in R&amp;D for EVs and hybrids, critics argue that the lack of immediate reinvestment in India’s operations reflects a missed opportunity for domestic growth. Despite the early disappointment, Hyundai was confident that the valuation was fair. It did have some factors going for it, in addition to the fact that other auto giants like Mahindra &amp; Mahindra and <keyword id="19909974" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="maruti-suzuki" source="keywords">Maruti Suzuki</keyword> command even higher P/E ratios. And looking at the company fundamentals, it does seem like Hyundai is playing a long-term game. <h3>Hyundai in India: A proven track record</h3>Despite the initial stumble, Hyundai India’s long-term story is compelling. Since entering the Indian market in 1996, the automaker has sold over 8 million vehicles and firmly occupies the second spot in the domestic passenger vehicle market, trailing only Maruti Suzuki. Hyundai’s blockbuster SUV offerings, like the Creta and Venue, have been critical in building this dominance. Despite some challenge from Maruti Suzuki Brezza and Tata Punch, Creta has retained the tag of ‘most-selling SUV in India’ successfully so far this year. <div type="image" title="Hyundai" agency="Business Insider India" msid="116156234" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Selling over 17,000 units per month on average this year, Creta has edged past major competitors to be the most-selling SUV in India in 2024. As Indian consumers preference continues to shift gradually towards premium products over budget segments, Hyundai stands to benefit (Wikimedia Commons / Canva)&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Selling over 17,000 units per month on average, Creta has edged past major competitors to be the most-selling SUV in India in 2024. As Indian consumers preference continues to shift gradually towards premium products over budget segments, Hyundai stands to benefit (Wikimedia Commons / Canva) Hyundai India’s market share of 14% in October 2024 underscores its clout. The company’s ability to tap into India’s premiumisation trend, where consumers increasingly prefer high-end vehicles, positions it well for growth. With plans to expand in electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid technology, Hyundai is poised to capitalise on both domestic demand and export opportunities. The company’s ability to capitalize on its strong brand, extensive dealer network, and leadership in segments like SUVs and exports will determine its future performance. Hyundai’s strategic focus on expanding electric vehicle production also aligns with global trends towards sustainability, potentially positioning it as a leader in the segment. By listing in India, Hyundai aims not only to expand its operations but also to make India a global manufacturing and export hub for its products, especially SUVs and EVs. Therefore, despite early setbacks, Hyundai’s gamble seems to have paid off. The stock has rebounded, gaining 5% in the past month. More good news came in this week, as positive projections from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan forecast an impressive 17-28% upside for the stock over the next year, reflecting growing investor optimism. <h3>A strategic pivot from the Korean Discount?</h3>The Korean Discount has long plagued South Korea’s chaebols, including Hyundai. Experts attribute this to several factors: <ul> <li>Chaebol Governance: South Korea’s conglomerates, known as chaebols, are often criticised for opaque governance structures and excessive family control.</li> <li>Geopolitical Risks: Tensions with North Korea contribute to investor caution, adding a layer of perceived risk.</li> <li>Limited Domestic Liquidity: South Korea’s relatively small investor base can constrain market activity and valuation potential.</li> </ul> By listing in India, Hyundai sought to unlock better valuations for its subsidiary, leveraging the optimism of Indian markets. India’s stock market has a trailing P/E ratio of 24.4, far above South Korea’s Kospi average of 16-17. The Indian market’s appetite for high-growth stories provides a fertile ground for companies like Hyundai to escape the valuation constraints of their home market. A successful IPO could encourage other such conglomerates to follow suit, setting a precedent. While Hyundai India has a robust track record, its future success hinges on navigating key challenges: <ul> <li>Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Hyundai relies heavily on its Chennai plant, making it vulnerable to disruptions.</li> <li>Intensifying Competition: Domestic rivals like <keyword id="19906967" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tata-motors" source="keywords">Tata Motors</keyword> and MG Motors are making aggressive inroads into the EV market.</li> <li>Policy Risks: The automotive sector’s reliance on government incentives for EVs and hybrids adds a layer of unpredictability.</li> </ul> High valuations come with risks. Hyundai will need to prove that it can sustain its growth trajectory in India, fend off competition from established players like Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors, and navigate challenges such as supply chain disruptions and regulatory hurdles. If Hyundai successfully capitalises on its strong brand and market leadership, it could not only redefine its value but also serve as a case study for other Korean companies seeking better recognition and valuations in global markets. <h3>Is Hyundai saga a reflection of overheated Indian markets?</h3>The bigger question here is, does Hyundai’s IPO highlights a broader narrative about Indian markets’ premium valuations? With a trailing P/E ratio of 24.4, Nifty 50 index is among the highest in emerging markets. India’s stock markets consistently command a premium due to robust retail participation, strong economic growth prospects, and a burgeoning middle class. While this premium reflects optimism about India’s long-term growth story, it also signals potential risks of overvaluation, particularly in sectors like technology, automotive, and consumer goods. With a record ₹94,017 crore outflow by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in October 2024, concerns about overheated valuations are mounting. Sustaining such unprecedented valuations required companies to consistently perform above global averages, and retaining robust earnings growth quarter after quarter remains a challenge in today’s uncertain world. For Hyundai, the high valuation is both an opportunity and a risk. While it underscores investor confidence, it narrows the margin of safety, making the stock vulnerable to corrections during economic downturns. Take for example, the high-profile IPO of Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) that raised over ₹21,000 crore. Its listing was met with disappointment as the stock began trading at a 9% discount to its issue price, and subsequent performance has remained subdued. LIC’s post-IPO journey also highlights how inflated valuations can lead to long-term underperformance, as the stock gave only 12% return over the past 30 months when even the Nifty 50 index went up by over 44%. This happens when when the company's growth narrative fails to align with its pricing. Despite being a household name with a dominant market share, LIC's stock has struggled to meet expectations, partly due to concerns about its operating efficiency and the limited use of IPO proceeds for growth initiatives. Make no mistake, Hyundai Motor India’s IPO is a landmark event! It showcases the potential for Korean companies to leverage emerging markets like India for better valuations. It also shows that strong fundamentals can help justify a company such premium valuations even amidst bearish economic prospects. However, it also serves as a cautionary tale about the risks of overvaluation. For Hyundai, the next steps involve proving its long-term growth story, navigating competitive challenges, and maintaining investor confidence. For Indian markets, Hyundai’s IPO underscores the need to balance optimism with realistic expectations as they continue to evolve as global investment hotspots. To sustain the country’s economic narrative as a land of unmatched opportunities, corporate India must work on improving long-term fundamentals and mitigating long-term risks. As global investors watch closely, Hyundai India’s success or failure could shape how international companies view India as a listing destination in the years to come.

Tackling the 'Korean Discount': A deep dive into curious case of Hyundai Motor India's market listing

<ul><li>The global foldable smartphone shipments have declined by 1% in Q3 2024.</li><li>Samsung has emerged as the top company in foldable smartphone shipments in Q3 2024.</li><li>Samsung continues to account for over half of the market share, despite a huge decline in shipments.</li></ul>The global foldable smartphone shipments declined for the first time in Q1 2024, recording a 1% year-on-year decline. This marks the first decline for foldable smartphones in Q3. According to a report by Counterpoint Research, one of the factors for the decline in shipments was Samsung’s<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/samsung-galaxy-z-fold-6-review/articleshow/112497472.cms"> Galaxy Z Fold 6</a> and<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/samsung-galaxy-z-fold-6-galaxy-z-flip-6-galaxy-ring-and-more-launched/articleshow/111637913.cms"> Galaxy Z Flip 6</a> smartphones not performing as expected. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112497472" title="Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6 review – the complete package" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div> “The global foldable market appears to have entered a transitionary phase where it is facing challenges as it progresses from a niche segment to the mainstream. User satisfaction is particularly high with book-type foldable devices, but the prohibitively high prices remain the biggest obstacle to mass adoption,” said Jene Park, Senior Analyst, Counterpoint Research. <h2>Global foldable smartphone market share</h2> <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#000000;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Company </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#000000;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Q3 2024 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Samsung </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">56% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Huawei </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">15% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Honor </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">10% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Motorola </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Xiaomi </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6% </td></tr></tbody></table> Source: Counterpoint Research Samsung has emerged as the market leader in Q3 2024, with a market share of 56%, down from 70% in Q3 2023. While the company’s Galaxy Z Fold 6 performed decently, the Galaxy Z Flip 6 failed to match its predecessor’s sales. The company recorded a 21% year-on-year decline in shipments. Huawei has emerged second, with a 15% market share in Q3 2024, up from a 13% market share in Q3 2023. The company recorded a 23% year-on-year growth in shipments. Honor and Motorola take the third and fourth spots, with a 10% and a 7% market share respectively. Both companies have recorded good growth. While Honor has recorded a 121% year-on-year growth, Motorola has recorded a 164% year-on-year growth. Xiaomi is in the fifth position, with a 6% market share. The company recorded the highest year-on-year growth at 185%. This growth was driven by the Mix Flip, the company’s first clamshell smartphone. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/honda-activa-e-and-qc1-electric-scooters-unveiled-in-india-to-go-on-sale-in-2025/articleshow/115725242.cms">Honda Activa e and QC1 electric scooters unveiled in India, to go on sale in 2025</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-pc-market-reaches-new-high-with-4-49-million-shipments-in-q3-2024/articleshow/115719599.cms">India’s PC market reaches new high with 4.49 million shipments in Q3 2024</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/realme-gt-7-pro-with-snapdragon-8-elite-chipset-launched-starting-at-59999/articleshow/115689685.cms">Realme GT 7 Pro with Snapdragon 8 Elite chipset launched starting at ₹59,999</a>

Global foldable phone shipments decline in Q3 2024, Samsung leads with 56% market share

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been rapidly exiting Indian markets, and this high-speed exodus does not look like it will stop anytime soon. In October 2024, FIIs withdrew Rs 1,14,445.89 crores from Indian markets. Yesterday, FIIs withdrew $770.67 million from the markets, with equity outflows of $440.86 million and debt outflows standing at $327.44 million across various categories. Per NSDL data, hybrid outflows amounted to $2.31 million. While this may sound dissuading at first, a recent SBI report underlined that FIIs still hold a massive $ 18.241 billion in Indian markets. So far, FY25 has seen FII inflows worth $ 8.924 billion. However, the situation may quickly turn alarming as well, given that FII holdings in Indian equities have already come down to a 12-year low. Says Anirudh Garg, Partner and Fund Manager at Invasset PMS, "The current valuation of Indian stocks, trading at around 24 times expected earnings, appears high compared to Chinese stocks, which are at approximately 10 times. Economic concerns, including weak corporate earnings and declining consumer demand, further exacerbate this situation. Additionally, renewed fears of inflation and potential monetary tightening by central banks have led FIIs to withdraw from the Indian market." In the meantime, DIIs (domestic institutional investors) are stepping in big time. During October 2024, DIIs infused Rs 1,07,254.68 crore in Indian markets. In November so far, DIIs have been keeping the fund momentum going, infusing Rs 12,265.74 crore in India, while FIIs have offloaded Rs 16,445.49 crore this month. But despite this strong uptick, SBI's recent report suggests that consumer confidence in India remains below 100, signaling muted positivity and optimism in the economy. While household consumption is gradually recovering, it grew at 4% last year, much below the 7% levels recorded pre-pandemic. <h2>FII share in <keyword id="20868945" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSE-listed-companies" source="keywords">NSE-listed companies</keyword> takes a dip, DII stake rise </h2>FIIs share in NSE-listed companies stood at 15.98% in October, with assets under their custody in the equity segment coming to Rs 71.08 lakh crore last month. In September, this stood at Rs 77.96 crore. Experts suggest that this is likely to continue for some time to come. Mutual funds, on the other hand, saw their share in NSE-listed companies hit a record high of 9.58%, as opposed to their 9.32% stake in September 2024. FIIs turned net sellers in the debt segment as well in October, dumping $771 million in Indian markets. This comes after 2 consecutive months of healthy inflows in this segment in August and September 2024, where the figures stood at $2,806 million and $2,295 million, respectively.

FII stake in Indian equities dips to a 12-year low

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The CEO of <keyword id="20763638" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Tesla-rival" source="keywords">Tesla rival</keyword> Lucid had a scathing assessment of the EV market in the US.</li><li><keyword id="23975725" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Peter-Rawlinson" source="keywords">Peter Rawlinson</keyword> said most electric cars in the US "frankly suck" and were underwhelming.</li></ul>The boss of one of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla">Tesla's</a> biggest rivals thinks he knows why the US public isn't being won over by EVs. Peter Rawlinson, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lucid-ceo-comments-tesla-losing-its-way-elon-musk-distracted-2024-5">CEO of Lucid Motors and a former VP of engineering at Tesla</a>, spoke on the Cars and Culture podcast last week that most of the <keyword id="19895203" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Electric-Vehicles" source="keywords">electric vehicles</keyword> on offer "frankly suck." Asked whether EVs in the US have a perception problem, Rawlinson said the problem was "not perception, but reality." "I think many people have driven EVs that frankly suck. I know because I drive all the competition," he said. "I think that the American public has been ill-served by underwhelming EVs," Rawlinson added. Rawlinson, who previously worked for Elon Musk and helped build Lucid, became CEO of Lucid in 2019. The EV startup is gearing up to launch its new electric SUV, the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/luvid-gravity-suv-details-photos-tesla-topping-range-interior-cargo-2023-11" target="_blank">$94,900 Gravit</a>y, with production expected to start by the end of this year. Lucid has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-vs-lucid-which-is-better">touted its industry-leading technology</a> but continues to be stuck in the so-called EV "valley of death." The company reported revenues of $200 million in the most recent quarter and a net loss of $992 million. In August, it secured another $1.5 billion in investment from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, its majority shareholder. Meanwhile, EV sales growth in the US has slowed this year amid a dearth of affordable electric options. According to Kelley Blue Book, the average price of a new electric vehicle in the US in September was $56,000, compared to $48,397 for combustion-engine vehicles. <h2>China races ahead</h2>US automakers are grappling with the challenge posed by Chinese EV companies like BYD and Xiaomi, who have rolled out affordable electric vehicles packed with advanced technology. While these companies are unable to sell their cars in America due to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-criticizes-biden-plan-to-ban-chinese-tech-in-cars-2024-11">cripplingly high tariffs</a>, they are putting Western companies under pressure in China and attracting plaudits in the US, with Ford CEO <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ford-ceo-driving-xiaomi-su7-electric-vehicles-ev-2024-10">Jim Farley praising Xiaomi's SU7 EV</a>. Rawlinson previously described China's automakers <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lucid-chinese-automakers-years-behind-tesla-electric-vehicles-elon-musk-2024-5">as "years behind" the likes of Tesla</a> in terms of core EV technology. Speaking on the Cars and Culture podcast, he said Chinese companies like BYD were ahead of US rivals in battery chemistry and assisted driving technology — but said they benefit from an "uneven playing field" due to government subsidies. "I think the Chinese do have a fundamental advantage because when the government says go, they all go in the same direction instead of arguing with each other," Rawlinson said. A study from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank, released earlier this year, found that China has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-electric-vehicles-government-subsidies-win-ev-race-byd-tesla-2024-6">provided at least $230 billion in support</a> to electric vehicle makers such as BYD since 2009. "I'd say they're still behind in terms of the core EV powertrain technology, but don't underestimate them," Rawlinson added. Lucid did not respond to a request for comment, sent outside normal working hours. This story has been amended to state that the production of Lucid's Gravity SUV is scheduled to start at the end of 2024.

Drivers are being 'ill-served by underwhelming EVs,' says boss of Tesla rival Lucid 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump has said he plans to bring down gas prices by boosting US oil production.</li><li>ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods doesn't see a US oil boom in the near future.</li></ul>President-elect Donald Trump's promise to unleash a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">big oil boom</a> in the US and lower gas prices is running up against a market reality: The world is already awash in fossil fuels. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.semafor.com/article/11/12/2024/exxon-ceo-darren-woods-donald-trump-shouldnt-scrap-methane-regulations">Semafor</a> on November 12 that while he wants to maintain US oil production at its current highs, the market is already well supplied. "I don't think today that production in the US is constrained," he said. "I don't know that there's an opportunity to unleash a lot of production in the near term." During the presidential campaign, Trump said that he planned to lower energy prices — including the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/us/politics/trump-economics-gas-tariffs-inflation.html">cost of gas</a> — by increasing US oil production. "We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill," Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.factcheck.org/2024/10/the-issues-trumps-proposal-to-lower-prices-by-increasing-energy-production/">said</a> in October. "I will cut your energy prices in half within 12 months." In September, Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/us/politics/trump-economics-gas-tariffs-inflation.html">said</a> he would reduce gas prices to below $2 a gallon. Energy analysts told Business Insider that big oil companies are more focused on returning money to shareholders than investing in projects that boost production, especially because China isn't importing as much oil due to its economic downturn. Their comments underscore how little control a US president has over the oil and gas market, including prices at the pump. "It's a global market," Ben Cahill, director of energy markets and policy at the University of Texas at Austin, told BI. "There's very little any president can do to change the direction of oil or gasoline prices." Cahill added that he expects the US to increase oil production, but it will happen gradually. The US is already producing record amounts of oil, at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545">12.9 million barrels of crude a day in 2023</a> compared with about 11 million barrels per day in 2020, when Trump was in office. Last year, the US also became the world's biggest exporter of natural gas. In October, the US Energy Information Administration <a target="_blank" href="https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/us-eia-expects-domestic-crude-oil-production-reach-135-mbd-2025.html#:~:text=At%20a%20global%20scale%2C%20the,13.5%20mb%2Fd%20in%202025.">projected</a> that the US would produce 13.5million barrels a day in 2025, hitting another record. And there is room for the industry to expand. Woods <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/01/exxon-ceo-says-us-election-wont-affect-oil-production.html">told</a> CNBC earlier this month that there are areas in the Gulf of Mexico — where federal leasing hasn't allowed companies to drill — that could be a source of additional oil production in the long term. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told BI that Trump could take some steps to try to boost US oil production, including easing regulations to open up additional places for companies to drill and working with OPEC. However, he said boosting oil production while keeping prices at a desired level is a "delicate balance" for the industry. "If oil prices drop, you're likely to see a natural decline in US oil production over the long run," he said, adding, "Oil companies have shareholders to be accountable to." In recent years, the US has increased oil production even as President Joe Biden imposed stricter limits on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, oil and gas infrastructure, and gas-powered vehicles to help slow the climate crisis. In a separate interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/exxon-says-trump-should-keep-u-s-in-paris-climate-pact-3d8de471">The Wall Street Journal</a>, Woods added that the US shouldn't drop out of the Paris Agreement as Trump did in his first term and has promised to do again. The nearly 200 countries signed onto that agreement <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-strike-historic-climate-dealfossil-fuels-dubai-2023-12">struck a deal last year at the UN climate summit </a>to move away from fossil fuels this decade and the triple renewable energy by 2030. Woods told Semafor that he supports Biden's limits on methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. Exxon and other US oil majors have goals to reduce emissions, but climate scientists warn<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exxon-chevron-investors-reject-climate-change-proposals-2023-6">they aren't aggressive enough</a> to avert catastrophic levels of global warming.

Trump said he'll unleash an oil boom. Exxon Mobil CEO says not so fast.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks were down Wednesday morning before the week's high-profile earnings kicked off. </li><li> Snap, Advanced Micro Devices, and Alphabet report third-quarter results after the bell.</li></ul>US stocks dipped on Tuesday as traders waited for a slew of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-earnings-microsoft-amazon-apple-alphabet-meta-2024-10">corporate earnings</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-tech-earnings-gdp-inflation-jobs-report-economy-2024-10">reports and economic data</a> releases. Major indexes edged lower and bond yields rose. The 10-year Treasury yield was up four basis points to 4.326%. Earnings season on Wall Street continues to gain steam, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/snap-stock">Snap</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amd-stock">Advanced Micro Devices</a>, and Google parent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/googl-stock">Alphabet</a> among the major tech firms set to report earnings after the bell. The earnings deluge continues on Wednesday with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock">Meta</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock">Microsoft</a> after the closing bell. Apple and Amazon will report on Thursday. Third-quarter earnings have been strong so far. Of the 37% of S&amp;P 500 companies that have released financials, 75% have beat earnings estimates, on par with the 10-year average, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-25-2024">FactSet</a> analysis.This week's economic data, meanwhile, has the potential to reset the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts. Investors will digest GDP data for the third quarter on Wednesday, with estimates of 3.2% growth in the July through September period.On Friday, the October jobs report will be published. Economists expect 110,000 jobs were added last month, well below September's reading of 254,000. The Federal Reserve's November policy meeting will kick off a day after the presidential election. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, traders see a 96% chance central bankers will cut rates another 25 basis points, though recent hot data has also suggested the Fed may pause rate cuts at an upcoming meeting. "As we enter 2025, the case for skipping or pausing is likely to build. The Fed will be closer to estimates of neutral, a repeat of residual seasonality could lift inflation early next year, and the election outcome could add to hawkish risks for the Fed," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note on Wednesday.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,802.94, down 0.35%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,184.05, down 0.48% (-203.52 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,523.71, down 0.23%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>Here's how a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10?_gl=1*1qvmmw6*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDIwNTI2My40OTMuMS4xNzMwMjA4NDgwLjQuMC4w">Trump or Harris presidency</a> could impact your investments.</li><li>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10">election-betting market</a> has exploded this presidential cycle.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-djt-truth-social-election-madison-square-garden-rally-2024-10">Trump Media and Technology stock embarked on a meme-like rally</a> after Trump's Madison Square Garden event. The stock was halted for volatility on Tuesday morning. </li><li>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-rate-cuts-outlook-job-market-economy-fomc-jeremy-siegel-2024-10">Fed could pause rates at its next meeting</a>, if the October jobs report comes in strong, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil ticked higher 0.67% to $67.83 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, edged up 0.61% to $71.42 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was higher by 0.47% to $2,754.48 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield climbed five basis points to 4.333%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 3.25% to $71,152.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes dip ahead of mega-cap tech earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Interest rates and stock returns are expected to decline, impacting investment strategies.</li><li>Historically, stocks and bonds have alternated in performance, affecting portfolio decisions.</li></ul>A diversified investing strategy means a split between stocks and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-a-bond">bonds</a>, at minimum. But for the better part of the last two decades, interest rates were near zero, and real returns in bonds were lacking.Still, investors added them to their portfolios because history has shown us that asset classes can zig and zag, with long <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-and-bond-market-correlation-normal-2014-2">periods of stock market outperformance</a> relative to bonds and intervals where that dynamic flipped.The last two years were great for both asset classes. Elevated rates put the bond market back on investors' minds, while the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> had a solid 26% total return. But depending on who you ask, the future may not be as bright.Yields will be less attractive as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11#:~:text=The%20Fed%20cut%20interest%20rates,country%20recovered%20from%20the%20pandemic.">Fed begins its rate cuts</a> for this cycle. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects stock-market returns to be muted for the coming decade. The S&amp;P 500 is predicted to see a mere 3% annualized return over the next 10 years, which could lag the 10-year Treasury at an expected 4% yield, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-beat-stock-market-returns-next-decade-goldman-sachs-2024-10">recent note</a> by the investment bank's chief US equity strategist David Kostin.If the bears are right, investors may be forced to take on more risk for returns. Sounds gloomy, but for bond traders like Mark Rieder, who has over two decades of experience in the sector, it could be an opportunity to dig for bargains in corporate credit.Generating alpha for a credit trader could mean beating a peer, a Bloomberg fixed income index that matches the category of bonds traded, or simply remaining in positive territory in terms of total returns when the market is down, Rieder told Business Insider."Over the past 10 years, when interest rates were very low, it was not an exciting time to be a credit analyst and a portfolio manager," Rieder said. "But it's much more interesting today, and I'm really excited about that."However, active debt investing takes a good level of skill and consistent effort to make the right credit selection, according to his new book, "Reminiscences of a Bond Operator." Like the stock-picking process, following the crowd or consensus won't result in alpha. A credit trader must conduct the same level of fundamental analysis and dig into a company's balance sheet, earnings calls, 10Qs, and 10Ks, among other things, to determine valuation."I've always believed that a good credit analyst is also a really good equity analyst because you really need to understand the capital structure of the companies that you're evaluating and all of their different needs," Rieder said. "Most companies want to have their stock price go up, and so as a credit analyst, you need to understand that so that you can understand what their motivations are."It's especially important now, as the credit space faces its own set of challenges. Like the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/are-we-in-a-recession">business cycle</a>, credit has its booms and busts based on macro conditions and supply and demand. In a strong economic environment, corporate cash flows rise, and companies increase borrowing with favorable lending terms. But when times are tight, companies deleverage until their debt is less than their cash flow. Once that equilibrium is satisfied, more borrowing ensues, according to his book.Rieder said credit is in the boom part of the cycle. This might sound surprising, considering debt has been expensive for the better part of the last two years. But most companies were locked into low yields before rates rose, he noted. As debt turnover increases, investors need to be cautious."There's a lag impact on the increase in rates. Most companies borrow for long periods of time, five years, 10 years," Rieder said. "A lot of companies issued debt when interest rates were very low. They're now only starting to refinance that low-coupon debt. That, in turn, is what causes an impact."He doesn't expect that the Fed's cutting cycle will mitigate the crunch. The central bank can impact front-end yields, but the back end is driven by additional considerations, he noted. The 10-year rose to 4.3% shortly after the first rate cut of September, a signal that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-election-forecast-most-accurate-economist-predicts-outcome-economic-impact-2024-10">investors were looking ahead</a> at other economic risk factors, including concerns over the government's ballooning deficit, he added. Additionally, economic conditions such as elevated credit card debt pose concerns for future corporate profits.<h2 id="101d0bc7-10c7-46f9-a758-eea160588283">Trading credit</h2>Right now, investment-grade credit spreads are tight. The yields in corporate bonds aren't much higher than in government bonds, meaning less compensation for more risk. But if we move from the boom to the bust phase, credit spreads could widen, and that could create opportunities in the credit space, he said.While spreads are tight, he prefers front-end yield or pairing trades with cheap optionality. The cost of shorting a credit index like the CDX Investment Grade 5-Year Index, a credit-default-swap index that tracks the credit risk of large US investment-grade companies, is low. And since spreads are trading at historically tight levels, it's less likely to get much lower, which could limit potential losses, he said. This position can then be paired with a trade expected to perform positively.An example he provides of a market-neutral pair trade could look like buying a corporate bond in a sector with structural tailwinds, such as a natural gas producer set to benefit from increased demand and rising energy prices, or airplane lessors who benefit from higher lease rates due to a tight aircraft supply — a situation that's unlikely to ease in the near term because of production challenges faced by manufacturers. Then, take a short position in an interest-rate future to hedge against the bond's interest-rate risk."This trade works if natural gas prices remain stable or rise, leading the energy bond to outperform the overall corporate bond market," Rieder said. "It's an excellent opportunity to capitalize on the current tight credit spread conditions and complacency in the overall credit market."Having liquidity can also give you an upper hand. As spreads widen, investors may be forced into selling higher-quality credit because they can't offload the lower-quality ones, he said."There are huge opportunities in credit if you remain liquid during dislocations," Rieder said. "Other investors are going to be looking for liquidity. They can't sell what they want to, so they sell what they can, and that can lead to opportunities to buy cheap assets."

A veteran bond operator shares an alpha-generating strategy for dropping yields and muted stock-market returns

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed on Tuesday, with the tech sector rallying ahead of key earnings reports.</li><li>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq ended the day in the green, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq hitting a fresh record.</li></ul>US stocks traded mixed on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite rising to a fresh record as traders looked ahead to high-profile earnings reports. The tech-heavy index and the S&amp;P 500 finished the day in the green, while bond yields wobbled.Shares of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/googl-stock">Alphabet</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/snap-stock">Snap</a> rose 1%, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amd-stock">Advanced Micro Devices </a>popped 3% as investors awaited earnings after the closing bell.Shares of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock">Microsoft</a> also rose 1%, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock">Meta</a> shares climbed 2% as traders anticipated their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10">financials</a> on Wednesday. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aapl-stock">Apple</a>, which held mostly steady, is on deck to report on Thursday.Corporate profits have come in strong so far for the quarter. The S&amp;P 500 is on track to post a net profit margin of at least 12% for the reporting period, which would mark the second straight quarter it's done so, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-reporting-net-profit-margin-of-at-least-12-for-the-2nd-straight-quarter">FactSet</a> analysis.Traders are looking to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-tech-earnings-gdp-inflation-jobs-report-economy-2024-10">big few weeks</a> for markets, with third-quarter GDP set to be published Wednesday and the October jobs report due out Friday. The Fed is due to make its next rates decision next week, a day after the presidential election. Some doubts linger over whether the Fed will take interest rates as low as some investors initially hoped. Markets are pricing in a 53% chance rates will stay within 50 basis-points of their current target range at the Fed's January meeting, up from 0% odds priced in a month ago, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,832.92, up 0.16% <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,233.05, down 0.36% (-154.52 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,712.75, up 0.78% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>A hint in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-earnings-outlook-q3-bottom-demand-manufacturing-election-bofa-2024-10?_gl=1*gr9ay9*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDIyMjUxNS40OTYuMS4xNzMwMjIzMTMxLjguMC4w">S&amp;P 500 earnings calls</a> suggests that corporate profits are about to boom, Bank of America says.</li><li>Here's what Wall Street is expecting for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10?_gl=1*i0lfm3*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDIyMjUxNS40OTYuMS4xNzMwMjIzMTEyLjI3LjAuMA..">Meta's third-quarter earnings report</a>.</li><li>The Fed is likely to disappoint markets with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cut-rates-inflation-powell-blackrock-ceo-larry-fink-2024-10">just one more rate cut this year</a>, according to BlackRock's Larry Fink.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 0.22% to $67.23 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, held steady at $70.74 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> rose 1.13% to $2,772.63 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield traded mostly event at 4.274%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> popped 5.84% to $73,279.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Nasdaq closes at a record ahead of key tech earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The S&amp;P 500 might be stuck in place for the rest of the year, Ed Yardeni says.</li><li>The market vet thinks no more Fed rate cuts are coming until 2025 as the economy stays strong. </li></ul>The stock market could be bumping up against a ceiling for now, market veteran Ed Yardeni said. The longtime investor and president of Yardeni Research said he sees limited capacity for central bankers to cut interest rates, thanks to the strength of the US economy and a troubling outlook for the federal debt balance. That means further policy easing may not come until 2025 — and the S&amp;P 500 could stay stuck around 5,800 through the end of the year, he said in a recent note to clients. That would imply less than a 1% gain for the benchmark index in the next two months. Stocks have already been going "nowhere fast" since the Fed issued a jumbo-sized rate cut in September, Yardeni said. The S&amp;P 500 has climbed 2% since the Fed's last policy meeting, while the S&amp;P 500 equal-weighted index has risen 3.8%."We expect that it might go nowhere fast over the rest of this year too, hovering around 5,800. The outlook for fiscal policy will probably remain unsettling after the election and the Fed might not lower the FFR over the rest of this year after all," Yardeni wrote.Yardeni pointed to strength in recent economic data, which suggests that further rate cuts might not come out of the Fed's meeting this week or in December. For one, real GDP growth was strong in the third quarter, rising 2.8% year-over-year. Business equipment investment rose 11% over the third quarter, following a near-10% increase in the prior quarter. Investment in information processing equipment, in particular, hit a record high, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.<div type="image" title="Graph showing business equipment investment growth" height="794" width="1332" msid="114956591" hostid="261" sizebytes="56966"></div><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/october-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-11#:~:text=The%20US%20economy%20added%20just,due%20to%20hurricanes%20and%20strikes.">Weakness in the job market</a> has concerned some investors, with the US adding far fewer payrolls than expected in October. Yet, analysts have said the labor market weakness was at least partly the result of events including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-union-iam-endorses-contract-pay-raise-strike-2024-10">union</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworkers-port-strike-ila-impacts-2024-10">strikes</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-helene-unemployment-job-growth-presidential-election-inflation-harris-2024-10">Hurricanes Helene and Milton</a>.Importantly, the unemployment rate remained near a historic low last month at 4.1%."The bond market agrees with our opinion that the Fed cut the FFR too much, too soon," Yardeni added, pointing to the recent rise in bond yields, which indicate higher interest rate expectations among bond investors.Government borrowing, meanwhile, looks poised to increase over the coming months, a factor economists have said could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-problem-explained-deficit-gdp-inflation-economy-interest-rates-2024-4#:~:text=The%20government's%20soaring%20debt%20balance,future%2C%20economists%20told%20Business%20Insider.">indirectly fuel inflation</a>, and therefore limit the Fed's ability to cut rates."What can we expect when the current debt limit suspension ends on January 2? A divided government could force the Treasury to use extraordinary measures (as it did early last year) to fund the government while Congress debates the ever-increasing debt limit. It may take a debt crisis in the bond market to rein in Washington's fiscal excesses," Yardeni said.Yardeni has warned clients before about the possibility that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-fed-outlook-recession-economy-stocks-ed-yardeni-2024-10">no further rate cuts</a> are delivered by the Fed in 2024. However, most investors expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this week and cut by the same amount in December, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>. Some forecasters have even floated another <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-fed-rate-cut-forecast-jumbo-unemployment-labor-market-citi-2024-11">jumbo-sized rate cut</a> this year as the labor market could be weaker than it appears on the surface.

Stocks might 'go nowhere' for the rest of this year amid Fed uncertainty and US debt concerns, market vet says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks edged lower on Wednesday as investors continued to adjust their outlook for Fed rate cuts.</li><li>Investors see a 69% chance the Fed will cut rates two more times in 2024. </li></ul>US stocks slumped on Wednesday as investors tempered their expectations for rate cuts, sending bond yields higher. Major indexes slipped in early-morning trading, while Treasury yields moved up. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose three basis points to 4.242%, its highest level in about three months. The bond market has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/treasury-yields-bonds-interest-rates-economy-inflation-election-labor-market-2024-10">caught in a sell-off this week</a> as traders adjust their views on the path of monetary policy amid hot economic data, the potential for a Trump victory next month, and cautious guidance from Fed officials this week. Investors are pricing in a 69% chance the Fed is still on track to cut rates two more times this year, but odds for a rate cut in January have fallen to 45%, down from 66% a week ago, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.Investors, meanwhile, are keeping an eye on coming corporate earnings reports. Boeing shares slid more than 2% early Wednesday after the aerospace firm reported a loss of over $6 billion last quarter. Tesla shares also dipped slightly lower as investors readied for Elon Musk's car company to r<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-q3-earnings-preview-wall-street-auto-margins-robotaxi-2024-10?_gl=1*bbcxw6*_ga*MTgwNjk2NzI1OC4xNzIwNDY0ODMz*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTY4ODYyMy4yNzEuMS4xNzI5Njg4ODcxLjM2LjAuMA..">eport earnings after the closing bell</a>.Earnings season has been off to a strong start so far. 79% of S&amp;P 500 companies that have already reported financials have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-18-2024">beaten earnings estimates</a>, according to a FactSet analysis last Friday."The bar for third-quarter earnings is low, with analysts currently expecting only about a 3% increase in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share (EPS). That low bar and a supportive economic environment points to potential upside," LPL Financial wrote in a note.MacDonald's stock dropped 6% after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said an outbreak of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-e-coli-outbreak-tied-quarter-pounders-2024-10">E. Coli linked to the fast food chain's quarter pounders</a> led to one death and 10 hospitalizations. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,831.32, down 0.34% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,666.37, down 0.62% (-262.74 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,477.25, down 0.52%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/paul-tudor-jones-gold-crypto-bitcoin-election-inflation-debt-crisis-2024-10">Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones</a> says he's buying gold and bitcoin prior to the November election.</li><li>A<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-anti-china-stocks-semiconductors-export-controls-tariffs-trade-10"> Trump win could fuel a long-term buying opportunity</a> in Chinese stocks, according to one stock chief.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 1% to $71.03 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 1.01% to $75.27 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slid 0.59% to $2,732.47 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield ticked higher three basis points to 4.242%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> edged lower to $66,785.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks drop and bond yields climb as investors temper expectations for rate cuts

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The S&amp;P 500 could lose a quarter of its value next year, according to Stifel.</li><li>The benchmark index looks like it's caught in a "mania," the firm's strategists said in a note.</li></ul>The S&amp;P 500 looks like it's in the midst of another "mania," and investors could see a steep drop in the benchmark index sometime next year, according to Stifel.Strategists at the investment firm pointed to lofty valuations, with the S&amp;P 500 breaking through a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-sp500-hits-another-record-high-q3-earnings-2024-10">series of record highs</a> this year on the back of an improving <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10#:~:text=The%20no%2Dlanding%20scenario%20%E2%80%94%20in,enough%20to%20provide%20meaningful%20relief.">economic outlook</a>, expectations for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rates-cut-jerome-powell-labor-market-mortgage-pantheon-2024-9">Fed rate cuts</a>, and hype for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-stocks-nvidia-rally-how-to-invest-strategy-crypto-bitcoin-2024-5">artificial intelligence</a>.But the benchmark index now looks similar to the past four manias that have taken place, the firm said, comparing the current investing environment to the pandemic stock boom, the dot-com bubble, and stock run-ups in the 1920s and late 1800s.Growth returns "excess of Value" in today's market look "almost exactly the same" as they did leading up to the 1929 stock crash, the firm added.<div type="image" title="Graph showing S&amp;P 500 price to earnings ratio over trendline" height="952" width="1068" msid="114291451" hostid="261" sizebytes="96400"></div>"We took a clean sheet look at the equity market and came away with the same smh (shaking my head) emoji reaction. Despite all the soft-ladning and Fed rate cut optimism, the S&amp;P 500 up almost 40% y/y has simply over-shot," strategists said in a note on Tuesday.If the S&amp;P 500 follows the path of a "classic mania," that implies the benchmark index will rally to around 6,400 before falling back to 4,750 next year, strategists said."Sure, we can cherry-pick with the best of them and apply the most over-valued cyclically adjusted valuation level of the past 35 years to show about 10% further upside, but that same analysis of a century of manias also returns the S&amp;P 500 in 2025 to where 2024 began (down 26% from that prospective peak)," the note added.Stocks could be challenged next year due to the uncertain outlook for Fed rate cuts, the strategists suggested. While the Fed has signaled more cuts are coming, central bankers also risk <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-outlook-fed-interest-rate-cuts-jobs-report-us-economy-2024-10">undermining their inflation goals</a> if they cut rates too soon. "The conclusion … is that if the Fed cuts rates in 2025 absent a recession (two 25's as this year comes to a close do not count) then that would be a mistake, with investors paying the price in latter 2025 / 2026, based on historical precedent," strategists wrote.Investors could be impacted for the long-term, they added, pointing to previous manias, which historically led to weak stock returns over the following decade."Or at least that has been the case for the past three generations, making manias as disruptive for capital markets on the way down as they are euphoric on the way up," they said.A handful of other Wall Street forecasters have also said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dietrich-stock-market-outlook-bubble-crash-spx-recession-economy-fed-2024-6">stocks</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-bubble-crash-rosenberg-grantham-summers-recession-economy-2024-3">look</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-1929-prediction-sp500-outlook-overvalued-john-hussman-2024-3">overvalued</a>, but investors remain generally optimistic about the outlook for equities, particularly as they expect more rate cuts into 2025.

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