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A day before the official release of India's Gross Domestic Product (<keyword id="35050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="Orion">GDP</keyword>) figures for <keyword id="21593310" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY25" source="keywords">Q1 FY25</keyword>, a report by <keyword id="20548750" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anand-Rathi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anand Rathi" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Anand Rathi">Anand Rathi</keyword> research estimates the GDP to grow by 7 per cent, primarily driven by the robust performance of the services sector. The financial advisory firm also maintains its full-year <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> projection at 7 per cent, though it warns of potential downside risks. Utilities GVA is expected to rise by 11.5 per cent, while the construction sector has slowed due to election-related disruptions and the impact of heat. The mining sector remains strong, supported by increased coal production. The services sector is expected to be the primary driver of GDP growth in Q1 FY25. Despite reduced <keyword id="20155204" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-spending" source="keywords">government spending</keyword> ahead of the elections, which is likely to dampen growth in some service sectors, financial, real estate, and professional services are expected to have performed well. This performance is attributed to strong market activity and credit growth. However, the trade and transport sectors present a mixed picture, with some indicators showing improvement while others remain moderate. Overall, Services Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to grow by 8.2 per cent in Q1 FY25. As per the report, Investment was a key growth driver in FY24, fuelled by government infrastructure projects and a real estate upswing. However, the momentum appears to have slowed in Q1 FY25 due to pre-election restrictions. Despite this, the report predicts a significant rise in government capital expenditure in the coming months, supported by greater budget allocations. The report highlights the changing dynamics of private consumption in India. FY24 saw weak consumption, especially in rural areas, with final consumption expenditure growing by just 3.8 per cent. However, as FY25 begins, there are signs of a rural revival. Indicators such as increased two-wheeler sales and improving Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) volume growth signal a rebound in rural demand. In contrast, urban demand continues to show signs of sluggishness. The muted sales of passenger vehicles, weaker retail credit transfers, and flat Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections underscore this trend. While consumption is not expected to see a significant rise in Q1 FY25, the outlook for the remainder of the year appears positive. This optimism is bolstered by anticipated higher agricultural output and sharper government focus on rural areas. The agriculture sector is expected to post a subdued growth of 2.1 per cent in Q1 FY25, affected by scorching heat and uneven rainfall last year, which led to lower reservoir levels and hindered farming activities. However, the outlook is more promising for the remainder of the fiscal year, with better rains and improved sowing conditions expected to boost agricultural output Additionally, a rebound in stamp duty collections suggests buoyant real estate sales. Private capital expenditure, which was previously subdued, is expected to expand in FY25, driven by rising capacity utilisation and strong order books. The industrial sector, which grew by 9.5 per cent in FY24, is expected to see a shift in growth drivers in Q1 FY25. The focus is now moving towards utilities and mining, with manufacturing growth slowing. While government infrastructure projects and private capital expenditure will continue to support industrial growth, the global growth slowdown poses potential risks.

Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

Narendra Modi, elected leader of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will take oath as <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s prime minister for a historic third term on Sunday evening at 7:15 PM. After a decade of full majority governance, Modi will now run a <keyword id="20018803" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="coalition-government" source="keywords">coalition government</keyword>, with the Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal (United) as key partners. Despite being in coalition, experts feel that there won't be much change in the new government's economic agenda. Economists believe that <keyword id="20509939" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Modi-3-0" source="keywords">Modi 3.0</keyword> will not slow down the reforms and to achieve the goal of Vikshit Bharat by 2047, <keyword id="20404815" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-reforms" source="keywords">economic reforms</keyword> and policy reviews need to be continued across multiple sectors, including infrastructure, labour, and manufacturing. These reforms are deemed essential to drive economic growth and development in India. "The oft-repeated target of becoming a developed country by 2047 requires far-reaching reforms in the factor market, opening up of the economy and infrastructure development and a thrust towards labour intensive manufacturing. In a coalition environment it may not be easy to carry out big bang reforms, but the thrust of incremental reforms should be in this direction," said M Govind Rao, Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission and former Director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. Economists have noted that spending on <keyword id="20229510" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="populist-measures" source="keywords">populist measures</keyword> will increase because of coalition politics, however, the government will continue with its focus on "<keyword id="20054650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Made-In-India" source="keywords">Made In India</keyword>" reforms. Sectors like infrastructure and manufacturing will remain the priority of the government. "There's likely to be a swerve towards greater populist spending and some commitment of resources to states of alliance partners is also likely. But India's public finances are in relatively robust health and to be augmented by significant reserves from the RBI. India's infrastructure spending will continue apace but perhaps with greater private sector participation. Expenditure on defence modernisation and indigenisation will also undoubtedly continue" said Gautam Sen, retired political economist London School of Economics and author, Former member of the Indo-UK Roundtable and Senior Consultant UNDP. The full budget expected to be announced in July, will reflect the economic agenda of Modi 3.0. Many economists expect the Budget will likely see a spurt in welfare and support schemes mainly for farmers and poor. The Budget will indicate the policy priorities for the new coalition government and decide the growth trajectory for the next five years, On the economic front, economists have cautioned the government about the potential setbacks from a sluggish global economy and geopolitical crisis. "One constraint remains the sluggish world economy, which could suffer worse setbacks next year, though Indian growth has risen despite it. The unknown is the impact of external shocks of intensifying wars and uncertainty over energy prices" added Sen. Meanwhile, in a significant boost to the start of Modi 3.0, the Reserve Bank of India on June 7 revised upwards the <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> projection for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent on rising private consumption and revival of demand in rural areas. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) placed India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24.

Economists expect big bang reforms to continue under Modi 3.0

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's economic woes are mounting, with more negative news coming in every week.</li><li>The nation's manufacturing activity shrank for the fifth straight month, the latest data show.</li></ul>China's manufacturing sector contracted for a fifth straight month in August, indicating troubles for the world's second-largest economy are far from over.The latest reading for the nation's manufacturing purchasing managers' index, or PMI, came in at 49.7 — below the 50 level that divides expansion and contraction.Factories in the Asian nation have been struggling for months because of a slump in global demand as well as reduced domestic consumer spending. Manufacturing PMI figures for August actually exceeded the expectations of analysts polled by Reuters and may signal a slight uptick in performance – though as long as the figure shows contraction, China's growth forecasts will remain subdued. "It could be worse. Flatlining is not plunging," Robert Carnell, chief economist at ING Group, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-31/china-s-factory-activity-contracts-again-amid-gloomy-outlook?srnd=economics-v2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told Bloomberg</a>. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-slowdown-gdp-economists-targets-deflation-property-crisis-outlook-2023-8">Economists have cut their China GDP forecasts</a> for both this year and next – expecting the economy to grow just 4.5% in 2024, well below the government's 5% target.And the country's policymakers are under increased pressure to intervene in its stumbling economy. Beijing has lowered its official GDP target for 2023 to just 5% in March and has responded to signs of stuttering growth by <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-equities-climb-china-market-support-fed-2023-8">cutting stamp duty taxes</a>, loosening housing market restrictions, and slashing key interest rates.But these measures have fallen short of the massive amount of stimulus it would take to revive its ailing industries – including its enormous, debt-ridden property sector. China's property sector makes up about 30% of the country's overall output. Since 2021, more than 50 Chinese real-estate firms have collapsed, and the consequences <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-property-crisis-developer-country-garden-shares-all-time-low-2023-8?_gl=1*5iw7sq*_ga*MzE2MjY1NjEwLjE2ODgxMTM0MjM.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTY5Mjk2NzA5Ny4yNDQuMS4xNjkyOTY5MDIyLjQ4LjAuMA..&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">have reverberated around global markets</a> throughout.

China's economic woes mount as manufacturing continues to shrink

New Delhi [India], May 18 (ANI): India is poised to grow at 6.2 per cent in the current financial year 2023-24 with improving macro stability indicating that the monetary policy will not have to turn restrictive, <keyword id="48670" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="morgan-stanley" source="Orion">Morgan Stanley</keyword> has said. In a report titled "Asia Economics: The Viewpoint: Addressing the Pushback to Our Constructive View", authored by Chetan Ahya, Derrick Y Kam, Qiusha Peng, and Jonathan Cheung, Morgan Stanley said India enjoys tailwinds -- both cyclical and structurally. "We see healthy balance sheets sustaining the robust trends in domestic demand. Improving macro stability means the monetary policy will not have to turn restrictive, allowing the economic expansion to continue," the report said. In the three-day deliberations of the <keyword id="6375120" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="monetary-policy-committee" source="Orion">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> of the <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> in early April, Governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said the central bank has projected India's real GDP growth for 2023-24 at 6.5 per cent. Late last year, investors had raised concerns over India's growth momentum as growth indicators had slowed post the festive season in October. However, growth indicators reaccelerated in early 2023. For instance, the services Purchasing Managers' Index is at a 13-year high and the manufacturing PMI is near an 11-year high, both well above that of other economies; passenger vehicle sales are at 131 per cent of pre-covid levels, real goods and services tax collections are 35 per cent higher than pre-covid. Against those thriving fundamentals, Morgan Stanley's chief India economist Upasana Chachra expects GDP growth of 6.2 per cent for 2023-24, higher than the wide expectation of 5.8 per cent. Further, clearing doubts about India's rural spending, the Morgan Stanley report said it is of the view rural spending will strengthen. "As we noted previously, it is the case that rural and lower-income consumers are taking longer to revive spending as they have not received stimulus, and they had suffered a loss of purchasing power as inflation rose. But, as these effects fade, spending by rural and lower-income consumers is recovering. Indeed, real agricultural credit growth - a proxy for rural activity - has rebounded to the highest level since 2016, boding well for rural employment and consumption," the report read. (ANI)

India poised to grow at 6.2% in 2023-24 says Morgan Stanley

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China just slashed short-term interest rates in its economy to 1.9%.</li><li>Meanwhile, the government is mulling a big stimulus package to prop up key sectors.</li></ul>China's central bank slashed short-term interest rates and is mulling a bigger monetary stimulus package — signs that the nation is trying to revive economic activity amid a slowdown that bucked forecasts of a red-hot recovery after pandemic lockdowns. Short-term interest rates in China were cut to 1.9% from 2% on Tuesday, according to an <a href="http://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688229/3688335/3730267/4953385/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> from the People's Bank of China, marking the first rate cut from China's central bank since August of last year.The PBOC also injected 2 billion yuan, or $280 million into the country's banking system – another form of monetary easing aimed at increasing liquidity in the economy.China's government, meanwhile, is mulling a hefty economic stimulus package, <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-weighs-broad-stimulus-with-property-support-rate-cuts-1.1932330#:~:text=(Bloomberg)%20%2D%2D%20China%20is%20considering,people%20familiar%20with%20the%20matter." target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a> reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The package includes more than a dozen proposals, which involve using stimulus money to prop up <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-economy-markets-real-estate-factories-property-manufacturing-xi-beijing-2023-5">demand and China's real estate market</a> – two areas that have particularly struggled in the wake of the nation's economic reopening.That comes as China closes the book on uts zero-COVID lockdown policies, a move that was supposed to spark a rebound in its economy. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-economy-market-alarms-wall-street-demand-investment-semiconductors-growth-2023-5">But economic activity has largely floundered in 2023</a>, with key sectors struggling as consumer demand picks up less than anticipated. Chinese manufacturing activity continued to contract in May, while home sales plunged 14.3%, according to the latest statistics.In April, PBOC governor Yi Gang said he still believed China could reach its goal of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-14/pboc-s-yi-says-china-to-achieve-gdp-target-property-improving#xj4y7vzkg">5% GDP growth this year</a>, but some experts are skeptical on that future, particularly as the nation is saddled with <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/china-debt-crisis-lgfv-bonds-xi-jinping-communist-party-congress-2022-10">high levels of debt</a> and faces the risk of <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-economy-recession-deflation-risk-producer-prices-factory-activity-slowdown-2023-6">deflation in its economy.</a> That makes the narrative that China will undergo a huge economic rebound is merely a "charade," according to Rockefeller International chair Ruchir Sharma. Meanwhile, former International Monetary Fund official Desmond Lachman said China could be headed for <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-economy-lost-decade-global-growth-driver-xi-jinping-gdp-2023-6?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets" rel="">a lost decade,</a> as its economy is unlikely to recover from its COVID-era restrictions anytime soon.

China slashes interest rates and mulls big stimulus package in bid to revive slowing economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Sen. Manchin's opposition to BBB will cost the US roughly $60 billion in growth, <keyword id="6361649" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="goldman-sachs" source="Orion">Goldman Sachs</keyword> said.</li><li>On Monday, the bank lowered its forecasts for growth in the first three quarters of next year.</li></ul>Sen. <keyword id="11930702" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="joe-manchin" source="Orion">Joe Manchin</keyword>'s opposition to the Build Back Better plan is starving the country about $60 billion in gross domestic product, Insider calculates based on Goldman Sachs' projections.What little hope Democrats had of passing their social-spending package evaporated on Sunday when the centrist West Virginia senator declared on Fox News that he wouldn't vote for the proposal in its current form. While Senate Democrats <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bbb-vote-chuck-schumer-joe-manchin-early-next-year-2021-12">haven't completely thrown in the towel</a> on passing another spending plan, Manchin's statement signals it will need to be dramatically different to garner his support.Economists are already forecasting what a BBB-free <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword> will look like, and early projections are gloomy. Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius now expect <keyword id="11994714" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="us-gdp" source="Orion">US GDP</keyword> to grow 2% in the first quarter, 3% in the second quarter, and 2.75% in the third quarter, according to estimates published Monday. Those projections are down from 3%, 3.5%, and 3%, respectively.If the revisions ring true, the difference in growth should add up to roughly $60 billion in economic losses over the next three quarters. Insider calculated the sum by taking the US's annualized <keyword id="11921644" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp" source="Orion">GDP</keyword> growth rate and calculating the differences in Goldman's prior and updated expansion forecasts.The economic impact might not be so negative, the team noted. There's a chance Congress approves "a much smaller set of fiscal proposals" targeting manufacturing bottlenecks and supply-chain pressures, according to the economists.Still, the most important element of BBB for <keyword id="11916717" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="Orion">economic growth</keyword> is likely to wither. Extending the child tax credit would've played a major role in keeping spending strong through 2022, Goldman said. Yet Manchin made clear in a Monday radio interview that he <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-manchin-child-tax-credit-bbb-work-requirements-salary-limits-2021-12">wouldn't back an extension of the program</a> as it currently stands. The senator told West Virginia's MetroNews that he'd want to see a work requirement and additional measures to better target families in need and keep wealthier Americans from collecting the monthly payments.Many other Democrats, however, have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-lining-up-against-manchin-biden-child-tax-credit-2021-9">fervently pushed against work requirements</a>, leaving the tax credit to expire this month. Removing the CTC will lead to government aid in 2022 that's "somewhat more negative than we had expected," Goldman said. There's "still a chance" that Congress retroactively extends the program, but the odds of that are "less than even," the bank added.The death of BBB might also throw a wrench in the Federal Reserve's plans to fight inflation, according to the team. Most central bank officials likely expected Congress to pass the spending package, and those assumptions probably showed up in the Fed's economic projections <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-recovery-inflation-outlook-federal-reserve-forecasts-unemployment-rate-fomc-2021-12">published last week</a>. Failure to pass BBB "would introduce some risk" to Goldman's expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates in March and start cooling inflation, the team said.The economic boom seen through the summer is suddenly on the ropes. The Omicron variant's rapid spread is quickly reviving some economic restrictions across the country, and early signs point to consumer spending <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-will-cool-next-year-discounts-supply-crisis-economist-outlook-2021-12">already starting to ease</a>. With BBB likely off the table, the US recovery is entering the new year with far less juice than economists anticipated just days ago.

Joe Manchin is costing the US economy $60 billion by tanking Build Back Better, Goldman Sachs says

Mumbai, The <keyword id="3898005" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-support">fiscal support</keyword> toward economic growth in the 2020 decade is expected to be lower than in the previous corresponding period, <keyword id="113829" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Motilal-Oswal-Financial-Services">Motilal Oswal Financial Services</keyword> said in a report. According to the report, the likely lower support will be caused due to Centre's efforts for fiscal consolidation. Notably, the report pointed out that <keyword id="26362" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Government">government</keyword> has shown 'remarkable' resistance to any major stimulus, which provides further confidence that Centre's finances could improve consistently over the next decade. "While the fiscal deficit would remain above 3% of <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword> for the next few years, the path to fiscal consolidation would be watched closely," the report said. "The faster the fiscal consolidation, the lower would be the fiscal support toward economic growth and vice-versa. It could take many years for the general government to bring its debt-to-GDP ratio (at 86% of GDP in 2QFY21) back down to pre-COVID levels (of 68%)." As per the report, the growth in the 2000s decade was led by investments, while consumption was the key driver in the 2010s decade. "The 2020s decade could be seen as the 'Healing Decade,' wherein all efforts are toward just one objective - to regain lost economic strength." "If, however, this healing does not happen, it is very likely the economy would continue to crawl sideways - with some years of decent growth and some years of weak growth - leading to subdued average growth." Besides, the report cited that Covid impacted 2020 led to extreme behaviors, pushing financial savings sharply higher, this would start reversing from 2021 as things begin to normalise. "Whether Indian households would keep their financial positions healthy is an important prerequisite for better growth performance over the long term." "As households and the government remain cautious on spending and repair their <keyword id="68967" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="balance-sheets">balance sheets</keyword>, a sharp and sudden surge in non-government investments is unlikely. All of these factors imply that while economic revival may be limited over the next few years." Accordingly, the improved balance sheets of economic participants - along with sustained improvements in some key areas such as revival in real estate and manufacturing would set the stage to move from low to high-single-digit growth before the end of the 2020s decade. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/policy/economy/news/recession-in-india-will-end-latest-by-march-says-a-top-economist/articleshow/80399198.cms">Recession in India will end latest by March, says a top economist</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/amazfit-smartwatch-gts-2-review-feature-rich-but-theres-still-room-for-improvement/articleshow/80398998.cms">Amazfit GTS 2 review – feature-rich, but there’s still room for improvement</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/apps/news/whatsapp-to-soon-introduce-voice-and-video-calls-for-web-multi-device-support-jiomart-integration-and-more/articleshow/80398791.cms">WhatsApp to soon introduce voice and video calls for Web, multi-device support, JioMart integration and more</a>

Fiscal support for growth in 2020 decade likely to be lower, says report

<ul><li>The GDP growth rate for the first quarter of the 2019-20 came lower than expectations, at a mere 5%.</li><li>However, online searches for ‘<keyword id="121430" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="recession-in-india">recession in India</keyword>’ had spiked many times over in the last couple of months.</li><li>Afraid of a severe slowdown, Indian consumers had cut back expenses, even on items of daily use, setting in motion a vicious cycle of slowdown in manufacturing, investments, and unemployment.</li><li>Economists hope the recent stimulus from both the government and the RBI, as well as good rains, will help in reviving both the economy and the sentiment.</li></ul> India’s growth in gross domestic product (GDP) between April and June 2019 was a mere 5%, the worst in over six years and way below estimates. The data was released on Friday (August 30) but people in India had already been fearing a recession much before the government admitted to a sharp slowdown. Google Trends show that online searches for ‘recession in India’ spiked in the last couple of months, many times over, showing that people had already started to feel the pinch. 
	
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 The very first day of trading after the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced the mega merger of ten public sector banks (PSB) into four, the stock markets went tumbling down on Tuesday September 3. Sensex shed 600 points whereas Nifty lost over 180 points. This fall was led by PSB stocks and most of their stocks were down by over 5%. This is one of the many measures taken to revive the economy. The economic wheel was brought to a grinding halt by demonetisation in November 2016, and the recovery was delayed by the disruptions caused by the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) in mid-2017. As tax revenue fell, the Narendra Modi government <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/bonds-indian-economy-government-spending-1580704-2019-08-14">reduced spending</a> to keep the fiscal deficit under check. Private investments had already <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/business/performance-of-corporate-firms-declines/article29231755.ece">gone into a shell</a>, and as the Modi government tightened its purse strings in the last year of its first term, economic activity spiraled down. 
 
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 The report authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh is pushing for more aggressive interest rate cuts by the RBI. “We believe it is incorrect for central bankers to suggest that they have this challenge under control - or that with their current toolkit they will be able to get it under control,” said SBI Ecowrap. This deep slowdown is a culmination of many areas, in addition to decline in consumer sentiment right from slowing auto sales to reduced air traffic growth to cut backs on items of daily use. Before taking a look ahead, let’s look at the three main areas where growth is slowing down. Consumption hits a standstill with job losses Weary Indians are cutting down on expenses like no other, and that has affected the economy. As many as 350,000 jobs were cut in the formal sector of automobiles. This massive number does not count in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/a-third-of-indias-textile-workers-30-million-lost-their-jobs-and-more-could-go/articleshow/70781257.cms">textiles, diamond workers and </a>others. Combined with the informal sector job loss, the consumption loss would translate to around ₹15,000 crore. The growth in consumption expenditure slumped to 3.1% in the three months ending June 2019-- the weakest in five years. More than half of India lives outside the cities, and the broad-based consumption slowdown reflects the deep distress in the rural parts. “Agriculture, forestry and fishing output grew by 2% improving slightly from de-growth (contraction) of 0.1%,” said a report by Edelweiss. Manufacturing shutters down With low consumption and almost no demand growth in sight, the quarter’s manufacturing growth was as low as 0.6%. This is in spite of high growth in electricity and utility expansion. Investment lowers with less to spend Indian companies are seeing less reasons to keep their plants running, there is much less to invest either. As a result, investments growth has slipped to just 3.7%. Companies are choosing to park their money in financial assets rather than betting on a slowing economy. “With low wage growth rate, household savings are also particularly down. Thus, households are not closing the savings-investments gap and this is bringing down overall investments,” said Edelweiss. Simply put, people are choosing to hold on to cash rather than invest anywhere <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/gold-prices-on-a-rally-set-to-test-new-highs-of-1450-per-ounce/articleshow/69970217.cms">other than gold</a>. Will the Indian economy weaken further or enter a recession? An economy is defined to be in a recession if growth contracts for two straight quarters. That isn’t the case with India. However, many sectors within the Indian industry like automobiles and textiles-- two of the largest providers of jobs-- are already in recession. So there are reasons to worry but may be not for panic. The chickens have come home to roost. But the government has woken up to the emergency and is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/nirmala-sitharam-address-on-india-economic-stimulus-live-updates-and-highlights/articleshow/70804926.cms">shoring up money</a> to battle the slowdown. “Based on fiscal deficit numbers, in Pradhan Mantri Kisan Yojana (PMKY), the government will save ₹30,000 crore. If we add <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sensex-today-jumps-150-points-after-rbi-move-to-transfer-surplus/articleshow/70852202.cms">RBI surplus transfer</a>, the Government further would have adequate cushion for make up for revenue loss,” said a report by SBI Ecowrap. The more money the government spends in stimulating demand and investments in the economy either through sops for consumers or incentives for industries, the sooner the economy will revive. Aside from giving the government a part of its reserves, the RBI has already cut interest rates four times this year hoping to bring down lending rates, and Edelweiss believes that India’s GDP growth will start improving hereon as the effect of RBI’s measures start to trickle in. The rains will also have a role to play. “This number is likely to improve further the next quarter as a South-west monsoon season has been normal for this year,” the Edelweiss report said. Just like the pain of demonetisation and GST have lingered on for over two years, the government’s recent measures to boost economic growth may show effect with a lag.

Indians were fearing recession even before data showed that GDP growth hit a six-year low

<ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/gs-stock">Goldman Sachs</a> economists on Saturday lowered their third-quarter US <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword> growth forecast to 25% from 33%, citing weak consumer services spending and the strong uptick in national coronavirus cases.</li><li>The reimplementation of lockdown measures and social-distancing guidelines in states including California, Florida, and Texas are "already having a noticeable impact on economic activity," the team led by <keyword id="372504" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Jan-Hatzius">Jan Hatzius</keyword> wrote in a note.</li><li>The firm lowered its full-year projection to a 4.6% contraction from a 4.2% contraction.</li><li>Still, offset spending and reopening benefits led Goldman to boost its first-quarter growth forecast to 8% from 6.5%.</li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestutm_source=msn.com&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_content=msn-slideshow&amp;utm_campaign=bodyurlutm_campaign=bodyurl">Visit the Business Insider homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>States' revived restrictions and continued stay-at-home activity will drag on the US <keyword id="34412" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="economy">economy</keyword> more than previously expected, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/gs-stock">Goldman Sachs</a> economists said on Saturday.The bank sees <keyword id="6354971" type="DEFINITION" weightage="60" keywordseo="gross-domestic-product">gross domestic product</keyword> growing by 25% in the third quarter, down from its previous expectation of a 33% increase. The year's total economic contraction will worsen to 4.6% from 4.2%, the team led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note to clients.The downward revision was largely fueled by a slower-than-expected recovery in consumer spending. The recent resurgence in coronavirus cases has kept Americans from traveling and returning to restaurants and stores. Stunted spending on key services is likely to push a consumer comeback into September, the team said."The healthy rebound in consumer services spending seen since mid-April now appears likely to stall in July and August as authorities impose further restrictions to contain virus spread," they wrote.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picks-to-buy-big-gains-q2-earnings-season-goldman-2020-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GOLDMAN SACHS: Buy these 13 stocks that are poised to crush the market within the next 2 weeks as earnings season gets underway</a>The manufacturing and construction industries have largely avoided such a halt and will continue their recovery, Goldman added. The firm maintained its projection of 8% growth in the fourth quarter.Goldman's latest economic forecast arrived as the US sees surging coronavirus infections. Daily new cases passed 50,000 over the holiday weekend, and outbreaks in California, Texas, Florida, and other states have meant the reimplementation of strict lockdown measures.Goldman said that while <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-gov-abbott-orders-face-masks-public-to-prevent-coronavirus-2020-7">Texas' mask mandate</a> showed that some states were reacting swiftly to the uptick in cases, it's "admittedly hard to know" how the rest of the nation will adapt in the coming weeks."A combination of tighter state restrictions and voluntary social distancing is already having a noticeable impact on economic activity," the economists said.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-stock-market-crash-technical-analysis-indicators-to-watch-bofa-2020-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank of America identifies 3 indicators that could make or break the stock market this summer – and warns they're all deteriorating fast</a>Though the pandemic will put off an economic recovery into next year, late reopenings will accelerate growth in 2021, the bank said. Recent positive updates from trials of coronavirus vaccine candidates also suggest a treatment could reach the market next year, the economists said.Several economists have pointed to an effective coronavirus treatment as fuel for consumer confidence, as the risk of contracting COVID-19 could keep Americans at home even as economies reopen. In all, vaccine hopes and delayed reopening benefits drove Goldman to boost its first-quarter forecast to 8% from 6.5%.Now read more <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword> coverage from Markets Insider and Business Insider:<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-high-unemployment-drive-equities-rally-recession-paulsen-2020-7-1029367029">Why historically high unemployment should embolden investors to take more market risk, according to a Wall Street chief strategist</a><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/financial-crisis-risk-failure-slow-coronavirus-spread-spark-fed-president-2020-7-1029362615">Failure to slow the spread of COVID-19 could spark a full-blown financial crisis, Fed president says</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-jim-rogers-sees-blow-up-fed-madness-2020-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'We may have a blow-up': Famed investor Jim Rogers explains how central bank 'madness' has the stock market hurtling towards another crash</a>

Goldman Sachs cuts US GDP estimate, now sees economy shrinking 4.6% in 2020

New Delhi, May 13 () The government on Wednesday unveiled a major booster dose entailing a series of initiatives for micro, small and medium enterprises, including Rs 3 lakh crore worth of collateral-free automatic loans for businesses. A subordinate debt of Rs 20,000 crore for stressed units, a Fund of Funds for equity infusion of Rs 50,000 crore, and revision in the definition of MSMEs are among the steps announced by the government to help MSMEs recover from disruptions caused by the coronavirus-related lockdown. The MSME sector employs 11 crore people, comprises 45 per cent of the country's manufacturing output, 40 per cent of exports and almost 30 per cent of the GDP. The sector has been hit hard by the lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic, with millions of units staring at the prospect of closure and the threat of job losses. To provide much-needed liquidity to millions of units in distress, battling the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, MSME receivables from the central government and CPSEs will be released in 45 days, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said while announcing the relief measures in a conference here. As part of the Rs 20 lakh crore financial package announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Rs 3 lakh crore worth of collateral-free automatic loans will be sanctioned for businesses. For this purpose, an emergency credit line to MSMEs has been introduced from banks and NBFCs up to 20 per cent of entire outstanding credit as on February 29, 2020, for borrowers with up to Rs 25 crore outstanding and Rs 100 crore turnover eligible. Under this, loans will have a four-year tenor with a moratorium of 12 months on principal repayment. The interest on loans will be capped, with 100 per cent credit guarantee cover to Banks and NBFCs on principal and interest. The scheme can be availed till October 31, 2020. There will be no guarantee fee and no fresh collateral. As a result, 45 lakh units can resume business activity and safeguard jobs. The government will also facilitate a provision of Rs 20,000 crore as subordinate debt for functioning MSMEs which have turned into non-performing assets (NPA) or are stressed, a move expected to benefit two lakh units. Sitharaman said the MSME definition has been changed to allow units with investment up to Rs 1 crore to be called micro-units in place of Rs 25 lakh now. Also, units with turnover of up to Rs 5 crore would be called micro-units, she said, adding a turnover based criteria is being introduced to define small businesses. The investment and turnover limits for small businesses have been raised to Rs 10 crore and Rs 50 crore respectively. Units with an investment of up to Rs 20 crore and turnover of up to Rs 100 crore will qualify as medium-size enterprise. The limits have been raised to allow MSMs to retain fiscal and other benefits. Union MSME Minister Nitin Gadkari hailed the initiatives. "Historic steps by government towards Atmanirbhar Bharat by strengthening the MSMEs which are the backbone of the country's economy," he said in a tweet. "Foundation has been laid for a new MSME sector at the core of our future self-reliant economy. Directing huge capital inflows into MSME is the first step," Gadkari said in another tweet. Under the revised definition, the distinction between manufacturing and service sector will be eliminated. Moreover, to eliminate "unfair competition" from foreign companies faced by Indian MSMEs, global tenders will be disallowed in government procurement tenders up to Rs 200 crore, a move aimed at building a "Self-Reliant" India. The Rs 50,000 crore equity infusion for MSMEs through a Fund of Funds will be operated through a Mother Fund and few daughter funds, which will help expand MSME size as well as capacity. For this purpose, a Fund of Funds with Corpus of Rs 10,000 crore will be set up to provide equity funding for MSMEs with growth potential and viability. The fund structure will help leverage Rs 50,000 crore of funds at daughter funds level and also help to expand MSME size as well as capacity while encouraging them to get listed on stock exchanges. An e-market linkage for MSMEs will also be promoted to act as a replacement for trade fairs and exhibitions and Fintech will be used to enhance transaction-based lending using the data generated by the e-marketplace. MSMEs are critical for employment preservation and growth; firing up the MSME sector is the surest way to accelerate job creation, Arun Kumar, KPMG India Chairman and CEO, said. The finance minister's schemes announced on Wednesday will provide relief for MSMEs that need immediate succour for their survival as well as help those enterprises that need a fillip to grow. Expanding the definition of MSMEs and introducing new thresholds based on turnover while elevating the investment ceilings for each segment are welcome, Kumar stated. The broad focus on enhancing liquidity is timely, including the measures for NBFCs, HFCs and MFIs and those for the power sector to ease the situation of distribution companies and cash-strapped independent power producers. These measures to ease liquidity for lenders and businesses will make a tangible difference, Kumar commented. RSN MRMR

FM announces major booster to MSMEs to revive economy, protect jobs

German engineering and electronic major <keyword id="127554" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Siemens-AG">Siemens AG</keyword> hopes the new government led by ‘strong and experienced’ <keyword id="6354477" type="PERSON" weightage="100" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi">Narendra Modi</keyword> would be able to revive the <keyword id="34412" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy">economy</keyword> and expedite the decision-making process. 
 
"India needs to spend more money on infrastructure. We look at the new government with lots of hope. He is a strong leader and experienced in running governments (Gujarat). Holding back of investments was a problem. Projects were not moving. A stable government will hopefully change all that," Roland Busch, member of the managing board of Siemens AG, said. 
 
The Siemens Group in India, which consists of 13 companies, provides direct employment to over 19,000 people. Presently, the group has 21 manufacturing plants and a wide network of sales and service offices across the country. 
 
Busch said, "I will give you an instance. It took us a long time to get a site… A long, long time. In other countries, the timelines are shorter. So, I expect and hope the new government would make it easier for corporates to do business in India, which is a very promising market." 
 
He said India needed to invest a lot in infrastructure in order to grow at 7-8%. 
 "In the last 10-20 years or so, China has invested 9.5% of its <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword> in infrastructure. In comparison, India has done just about 3.8% or so. If you look at segments within Indian infrastructure, you would see there is a great need for capacity addition. Just to give you an example, leading Indian cities are anticipated to see 100% rise in commuter traffic by 2030," he said.

Siemens Pins Hopes On Modi Govt For Economic Revival

The Reserve Bank may cut interest rates for the sixth straight time on December 5 to support growth that has continued to slip to more than six-year low on slump in manufacturing, bankers and experts said. RBI has cut interest rates on every single occasion the multi-member monetary policy committee (MPC) has met since <keyword id="6359111" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> took over as the Governor of RBI in last December. In five reductions so far in 2019, interest rates have been lowered by a total of 135 basis points over concerns that growth momentum is slowing down and also to try to boost liquidity in the financial system.
 GDP growth slowed sharply to a pace of 4.5 per cent in the July-September, hit by a slump in manufacturing output, which contracted by 1.0 per cent. The pace of GDP growth has moderated from the 5 per cent rate in April-June and 7 per cent in July-September quarter of 2018.
 Das had previously stated that interest rates will reduce until growth revives and this gives confidence that interest rates may be reduced at the end of three-day monetary policy review beginning December 3, a banker, wishing not to be identified, said.
 "With the <keyword id="679958" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy">RBI Monetary Policy</keyword> Committee having decided to retain an accommodative stance following its October rate cut, further rate cuts are possible if economic conditions remain weak," said Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific Chief Economist at IHS Markit. The fall in GDP growth rate was despite a slew of new fiscal policy measures including a large reduction in the base corporate tax rate in a bid to boost private sector investment.
 Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India said inflation is low and is expected to remain so because of the excess capacity in the economy. "This gives the RBI the elbow room to cut rates, which is highly anticipated in the upcoming December meeting."
 In doing so, RBI may look past the recent uptick in inflation last month, largely attributed to vegetables such as onions. But importantly, there has been a slide in core inflation.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd chief economist Nikhil Gupta said: "We are afraid that expectations of better growth in 3QFY20 (October-December) may not pan out. Leading indicators suggest that October (festival month) was the worst in the current cycle. We believe that growth could weaken further to around 4 per cent in 3QFY20, which will mark the trough."
 "Our full-year growth forecast, thus, is revised down from 5.7 per cent earlier to 4.5 per cent for FY20," he said.
 Ranen Banerjee, Leader Public Finance and Economics, PwC India, said the second quarter GDP numbers made it more imperative for a fiscal led priming as the monetary policy interventions clearly are not transmitting.
 "Thus, just to depend on another rate cut by RBI in the upcoming MPC meeting may not be sufficient. The situation demands a coordinated fiscal priming on areas with higher multipliers and where spends could be immediate combined with a monetary policy push to address the effective transmission of rate cuts to the NBFCs. Effect of rural demand uptick on Q3 numbers will be crucial to avert a sub 5 per cent annual growth rate," Banerjee said.
 Sreejith Balasubramanian, Economist - Fund Management, IDFC AMC said bottoming-out of growth could be further down the road and recovery is unlikely to be V-shaped as consumer demand, credit supply and risk appetite remain lacklustre.
 "This and the falling core-CPI should allow the RBI focus more on growth, while a major fiscal stimulus is hindered by the lack of available household financial savings," he said.
 Rajni Thakur, Economist, RBL Bank said the growth in the second half of the year could remain evasive unless government pumps in more stimulus and continues to heavy lift growth push through the fiscal year.
 "The grind up is going to be slow and heavily dependent on fiscal support to come out of current growth recession."
 Majumdar said aggressive asset sales and privatisation reforms will give the government some fiscal space to incur counter-cyclical fiscal policies to boost growth without widening the fiscal deficit.
 "Confronted with the sharp slowdown in economic growth momentum, the Indian government should give a high priority to implementing additional measures to bolster manufacturing output and kick-start an upturn in the investment cycle.
 "Accelerated government spending on infrastructure projects such as roads, railways and ports, as well as urban infrastructure such as affordable housing and hospitals, are the type of fiscal policy measures that could help to revive economic growth momentum within a relatively short timeframe," Biswas said.
 While the RBI has been helping through its monetary policy easing measures, the impact is likely to be more protracted, since monetary policy stimulus effects on the real economy generally act with long lags, he said. ANZ MR
MR

Shaktikanta Das has to do a juggling this policy-- to match food inflation with a slowing economy

<ul><li>The Prime Minister Economic Advisory Council seems like a divided house on the debate over India’s economic slowdown.</li><li>While Shamika Ravi and Rathin Roy have been critical of the government’s pace of response, Chairman Bibek Debroy has been more sanguine.</li><li>India’s GDP grew at a mere 5% between April and June 2019-- the slowest quarterly rate in over six years.</li></ul> India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is aiming to make India a $5 trillion economy by 2024 .But with every day closer to the deadline, everyone in India-- at chai thelas, smoking breaks at offices, soccer mom meetings and also social media-- is discussing an economic slowdown or <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/markets/economy/recession-in-india-searches-spike-as-gdp-growth-hits-a-six-year-low/articleshow/70922461.cms">fearing a recession</a>. However, the PM’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC), some Modi’s closest advisors, are a divided lot on the question-- how deep is the problem? The vicious cycle After months of denial, the Indian government woke up to announce a slew of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/foreign-investors-in-india-may-get-some-relief-from-tax-surcharge-after-prime-ministers-intervention/articleshow/70561763.cms">stimulus measures </a>as well as a mega merger of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/indian-government-merges-ten-public-sector-banks-to-form-four-large-entities/articleshow/70910392.cms">weak state-owned banks </a>to revive the economy in the last couple of weeks. Before these steps can take effect, the country’s quarterly growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) hit a <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/indias-gdp-growth-hits-over-6-year-low-heres-how-analysts-reacted/articleshow/70912164.cms">six-year low </a>of 5%. A ripple that started with a fall in consumption led to a wave of slowdown in manufacturing -- which grew an appalling 0.6% between April and June 2019-- which was already hamstrung by lack of private investment. The double shock <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/indias-government-wants-you-to-believe-that-demonetisation-didnt-slow-down-the-economy/articleshow/67785050.cms">of demonetisation</a> and the disruptive launch of <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/gst-compliance-regime-not-yet-simple-says-cag/articleshow/70454175.cms">a new tax regime</a>, Goods and Services Tax (GST), soon after are still echoing in the Indian industry. The job losses that followed have, in turn, have curbed consumption further and the economy is caught in a vicious cycle. Here’s what some of the members of the PMEAC have to say about the economy: ‘India can’t be fixed by accountants’ Shamika Ravi, who works at research firm Brookings India, is a part-time member of PMEAC. She was very provocative in calling the government to action. This tweet, a day before the Finance Ministry announced the stimulus measures, stands testimony for the kind of urgency she called for. <div type="twitter" handle="ShamikaRavi" handlename="Shamika Ravi" image="http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/466900364520747008/SgCWyFu9_normal.jpeg" favoritecount="2529" retweetcount="997" status="We are faced with a structural slowdown. Urgently need to follow a #NationalGrowthStrategy with time bound goals fo… https://t.co/654ZZvkhKW" createdat="1566489495000" id="1164567466795626496"></div>

 However, she has been quick to acknowledge some of the steps taken by the government like the one on August 27 to merge 10 state-owned banks into four. <div type="twitter" handle="ShamikaRavi" handlename="Shamika Ravi" image="http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/466900364520747008/SgCWyFu9_normal.jpeg" favoritecount="316" retweetcount="65" status="Good move.These 12 PSBs must now actively differentiate. Currently they are all clones of each other.… https://t.co/lrsShqkiay" createdat="1567166002000" id="1167404943952625665"></div>

 ‘India is facing a silent financial crisis’ Another PMEAC member, Rathin Roy pressed the panic button earlier than Shamika Ravi but his narrative put the focus on monetary policy, and therefore the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), more than the government. “Monetary and credit policy transmission needs fixing, not further rate cuts. Using speculative foreign money for sovereign spending would raise risk without ameliorating the credit and liquidity situation,” he said in a<a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/coherent-set-of-immediate-actions-119082500710_1.html"> column written in</a> Business Standard. Roy was advising against the government’s plan to borrow money in <a href="https://www.cnbctv18.com/finance/pmeac-member-rathin-roy-says-government-should-rethink-sovereign-bond-plan-4034401.htm">dollars abroad</a> to meet the investment needed to revive the economy. He also warned against any temporary measures to boost growth and recommended long-term changes that will reshape the Indian economy in a tweet on August 21. <div type="twitter" handle="EmergingRoy" handlename="rathin roy" image="http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1092282710817673217/Oq50ePfp_normal.jpg" favoritecount="53" retweetcount="25" status="Muddled macro: asserting slowdown cyclical then arguing for sector, admin reforms, relative price distortion fixes… https://t.co/IsAHnqvOZg" createdat="1566356687000" id="1164010430257176576"></div>

 Yet, two days later, the Modi government’s stimulus measures were accompanied by a narrative from the Finance Minister that largely blamed global factors and a temporary cash crunch in the country’s shadow banks for the current crisis. The reality is Indians have cut back on everything from air tickets to cars to even essential items of daily use like <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/indian-villagers-are-not-buying-clothes-and-cutting-back-on-hair-oil/articleshow/70856804.cms">biscuits and clothes</a>. But Roy and Ravi’s senior colleague Bibek Debroy chose to measure his words. ‘Spreading gloom and doom message is disservice’ Debory, the chairman of the PMEAC, however released a statement last week right after growth numbers were released, allaying the fears and ‘negativity’ spreading fast. He said that several reform measures introduced by the government are meant to address precisely this question, both cyclical and structural aspects. “When economists list out structural constraints, they often mention factor markets, which are in the State List or the Concurrent List. Alternatively, they concern the legislature or the judiciary. Therefore, because these reforms are complicated areas, reforms will happen incrementally, not overnight,” said a press release by the government. Debroy said that that those who seek to spread a message of gloom and doom are doing a great disservice. “The council does not endorse such views,” he said in the release. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/indian-villagers-are-not-buying-clothes-and-cutting-back-on-hair-oil/articleshow/70856804.cms">After biscuits, Indian villagers are cutting down on clothes and hair oil too</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/markets/economy/recession-in-india-searches-spike-as-gdp-growth-hits-a-six-year-low/articleshow/70922461.cms">Indians were fearing recession even before data showed that GDP growth hit a six-year low</a>

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