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The <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Election-Commission" source="keywords">Election Commission</keyword> has received eight applications from aggrieved <keyword id="19902220" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="candidates" source="keywords">candidates</keyword>, including those from the <keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="BJP" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="BJP">BJP</keyword> and the <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword>, for verification of tampering or modification in micro-controller chips embedded in the EVMs post declaration of Lok Sabha election results on June 4. Terming the suspicion of manipulation of the electronic voting machines "unfounded", the <keyword id="19895345" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Supreme-Court" source="keywords">Supreme Court</keyword> had on April 26 rejected the demand for reverting to the old paper ballot system. But at the same time, the top court had opened a window for the aggrieved unsuccessful candidates securing second and third places in the poll results and allowed them to seek verification of micro-controller chips embedded in five per cent EVMs per assembly constituency on a written request upon the payment of a fee to the poll panel. BJP's Ahmednagar (Maharashtra) candidate Sujay Vikhe-Patil has sought verification of the machines from 40 <keyword id="20300567" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="polling-stations" source="keywords">polling stations</keyword>. Vikhe-Patil had lost to Nilesh Lanke of NCP (Sharad Pawar) faction. A YSRCP and a DMDK candidate too have applied for the verification, according to data shared by the poll panel. According to the EC, eight parliamentary seats spread across six states are involved. The total number of polling stations for which verification has been sought is 92. Candidates who come second or third and seek verification of the EVMs will have to pay Rs 47,200 per EVM set, according to the standard operating procedure issued by the EC on June 1. According to the EC's Standard Operating Procedure (SOP), the cost submitted by manufacturers BEL and ECIL to carry out EVM "check and verification" is Rs 40,000 (plus 18 per cent GST) per set of EVM. "In addition to the cost incurred by the manufacturers, there are also administrative costs like cost of labour to shift the units, CCTV coverage, electricity charges, videography costs and various other operational costs at the district election officer level," the document said. It, however, said to make the <keyword id="21143428" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="verification-process" source="keywords">verification process</keyword> "more accessible" and inclusive in compliance to the referred mandate of the Supreme Court, it is decided that instead of going purely by the actual economic costs incurred, the administrative expenditure on <keyword id="22122362" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="EVM-verification" source="keywords">EVM verification</keyword> will be treated as "election expenditure and borne by the central or state government, as the case may be". "Accordingly, the administrative charges will be waived for the applicants -- the same shall not be charged to the applicants," it noted. The charges for EVM verification to be paid by the applicant candidate is for the current financial year 2024-25 -- till March 31, 2025, it said. An EVM set has at least one Ballot Unit, one Control Unit and a <keyword id="19975285" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vvpat" source="keywords">VVPAT</keyword> machine. Separately, YSRCP and BJD candidates from Andhra Pradesh and Odisha respectively have also applied for EVM check following the announcement of assembly results on June 4. Assembly polls in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh were held along with the Lok Sabha elections. In the verification exercise for assembly poll results, total assembly constituencies involved are three where verification has been sought in 26 polling stations. According to the SOP, the concerned state chief electoral officer (CEO) was required to communicate to the manufacturers the consolidated list of applicants within 30 days of the date of declaration of results -- by July 4. The CEOs have already conveyed the same to the manufacturers 15 days ahead of the schedule, the EC said. The technical SOP enumerating the methodology and steps for checking and verification of burnt memory/ micro-controller of the EVM units will be issued by the EC in due course.

EC receives applications for EVM verification on 8 LS seats in 6 states

<ul class="summary-list"><li>On <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-watch-for-election-day-harris-trump-congress-2024-11">Election Day 2024</a>, both parties are eyeing their pathways to victory.</li><li>Vice President Kamala Harris is facing former President Donald Trump.</li></ul>Over the past two decades, the road to the White House — once dominated by Florida and Ohio — has evolved.While bellwethers like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remain a critical part of the calculus for Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in reaching the 270 electoral vote threshold for victory, the Sun Belt region has also grown in importance.For Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> and former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a>, who are facing each other in 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, every vote will be crucial in what is considered a tight race.Both campaigns have been targeting a narrow band of seven swing states to capture the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Democrats — who defied conventional political wisdom in 2022 by retaining their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/live-results-us-senate-midterm-elections-2022-11">Senate majority</a> and minimizing major losses in the House despite losing control of the lower chamber — are working hard to hold the White House as they face voter unease over the economy and pushback over the Israel-Hamas war.Before President Joe <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">Biden dropped out</a> of the race for reelection in July 2024, Republicans believed that he would be a liability for Democrats. But the GOP's political calculus for the race evolved after the emergence of Harris as the Democratic nominee.And Republicans have had myriad struggles over the last two years as their stewardship of the House has not exactly worked out how they had hoped. They elected a speaker (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kevin-mccarthy-lost-speakership-cbs-interview-angered-democrats-votes-2023-10">Kevin McCarthy</a> of California) who was subsequently removed and have struggled to enact an agenda under a new speaker (Mike Johnson of Louisiana) with a razor-thin majority. The series of events created a "chaos" narrative around the party, which doesn't help at the top of the ticket.The GOP must also contend with the toxicity of Trump's political brand among a sizable contingent of voters, especially among suburbanites and Independents who are likely to decide the election.One major issue that has continued to weigh down Republican candidates is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abortion-rights-ohio-virginia-kentucky-elections-gop-roe-v-wade-2023-11">abortion rights</a>, especially as voters in an array of states have rejected several anti-abortion measures following the Supreme Court's 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Democrats have won big in urban and suburban districts over the issue — from congressional races to local elections — and they've even made inroads in some GOP-leaning areas where blocs of Republicans support some form of abortion rights.Trump has been eager to take credit for installing three conservative justices on the Supreme Court, and in April 2024 he stated that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-said-abortion-bans-should-be-left-states-2024-4">abortion was now an issue to be determined in the states</a>, frustrating many conservatives who have sought a national abortion ban.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/streaming/where-to-watch-election-results-live-stream-2024">Election results</a> are set to start coming in on Tuesday night, but it could take days before a winner is called.Here's what to know about the seven battleground states that will ultimately determine who wins the race.<h2 id="898f6da7-6aef-4802-9d80-a0b3bf74da20">Arizona</h2>2012 margin: Romney +9.0%2016 margin: Trump +3.5%2020 margin: Biden +0.3%Between 1952 and 2016, Arizona backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election except for 1996 — when then-President Bill Clinton won the state over former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole by a little over 2 points.Long associated with Barry Goldwater, the conservative political icon who was the Republican presidential nominee in 1964, the Grand Canyon State for decades had a decidedly red lean in federal races.But as the population of Arizona has swelled, its political orientation has also shifted.In 2012, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney easily won the state over then-President Barack Obama, but former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton whittled the GOP margin of victory down to just under 4 points in 2016.Biden, buoyed by gains among the state's burgeoning <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/young-latino-educated-voters-helped-biden-flip-arizona-trump-election-2020-11">Latino population</a>, narrowly won the state over Trump in 2020 by a little under 11,000 votes out of nearly 3.4 million ballots.Democrats remain encouraged by their performance in Arizona in the 2022 midterms.Not only did Secretary of State Katie Hobbs defeat MAGA-infused <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-katie-hobbs-kari-lake-arizona-governor-election-2022-11">Kari Lake</a> in the gubernatorial race, but Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-mark-kelly-blake-masters-arizona-senate-election-2022-11">Mark Kelly</a> won a full six-year term over Republican Blake Masters. Adrian Fontes was also elected to succeed Hobbs over state Rep. Mark Finchem, who repeatedly questioned the 2020 presidential election results.Harris will have to recreate a win in a state where Republicans have long been the dominant party. And Lake is now running in the state's marquee Senate race, where she's facing Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego.<h2 id="2db802c5-f372-4aac-a96d-982425694dbf">Georgia</h2>2012 margin: Romney +7.8%2016 margin: Trump +5.1%2020 margin: Biden +0.2%For decades, Republicans could easily depend on the Peach State's electoral votes falling into their column. No more.While GOP politicians were enjoying double-digit wins in statewide races, former Democratic state House Minority Leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stacey-abrams-bio-georgia-joe-biden-democrats-voter-registration-election-2020-11">Stacey Abrams</a> — who saw the possibility of a more politically competitive Georgia — worked behind the scenes to build a turnout organization that could rival that of the Republican Party.In 2018, Abrams came within 55,000 votes of winning that year's gubernatorial election.Two years later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-wins-georgia-democratic-party-south-presidential-election-2020-11">Biden won Georgia</a> by roughly 12,000 votes over Trump, followed by the dual <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-jon-ossoff-georgia-senate-shifting-demographics-religion-stimulus-2021-1">2021 runoff victories</a> of Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff over Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, respectively.The exponential growth of the Atlanta suburbs, driven by new Black, Asian, and Latino residents, has given the state a purple veneer — but the 2022 midterms also showed the limitations of Democratic gains.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-herschel-walker-georgia-senate-runoff-election-results-2022-12">Warnock won</a> a full six-year term in a December runoff after fending off a challenge from Republican Herschel Walker, becoming the only Democrat to win statewide in the midterms. But Walker, aided by robust support in the state's rural counties, still won 48.6% of the vote in the runoff, despite a candidacy that some Republicans saw as deeply flawed.And Republicans were victorious in every other statewide election, led by Gov. Brian Kemp, who defeated Abrams in a rematch of their 2018 contest by nearly 300,000 votes.This year, both parties will <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-biden-trump-swing-state-election-atlanta-jump-ball-2024-4">have fought hard</a> to capture the state's 16 electoral votes: Democrats have focused heavily on turning out Black voters and suburban voters in metro Atlanta, while Republicans looked to boost their traditional support in the state's rural stretches.Translation: Georgia has remained on everyone's mind this year.<h2 id="746ed130-5944-4a3b-a75d-e8b8a536f565">Michigan</h2>2012 margin: Obama +9.5%2016 margin: Trump +0.2%2020 margin: Biden +2.8%Michigan has long been a critical part of the electoral calculus for Democrats, as they carried the state in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012 by appealing to voters in Detroit and its middle- and upper-middle-class suburbs, while also enjoying support among union households and moderates in the exurban and rural stretches of the state.But the party was stunned by Trump's narrow 2016 win in the longtime blue state, as the Republican made significant inroads with the base of white working-class voters who had been slowly drifting away from Democrats cycle after cycle.In 2020, the party put a premium on flipping the Wolverine State back into its column, which Biden did, winning by nearly 3 points over Trump.And in November 2022, Democrats in the state boasted some of their party's most impressive victories in the entire country.Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-gretchen-whitmer-tudor-dixon-michigan-governor-election-2022-11">Gretchen Whitmer</a> won reelection by nearly 11 points, while state Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson easily won their races. The party also flipped control of both houses of the Michigan legislature, and a referendum enshrining reproductive rights into the state Constitution was approved by voters.Still, despite the Democratic wins, the state's 15 electoral votes have been a sought-after prize for both parties in 2024.A major caveat: Biden has faced enormous pushback from the state's Arab American community over his handling of the conflict in Gaza, which led more than 100,000 Michiganders to vote "uncommitted" instead of selecting the president in the March Democratic primary. It remains unclear how these voters will respond to Harris' candidacy.<h2 id="662fa2f3-defd-4355-9bae-934ddc230f86">Nevada</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.7%2016 margin: Clinton +2.4%2020 margin: Biden +2.4%Democrats have been victorious on the presidential level in the Silver State since 2008, when Obama won by nearly 13 points, followed by his victory of nearly 7 points in 2012.But Clinton and Biden both won the state by a little over 2 points, as Republicans have seen the fast-growing Western state as one that can be flipped into their column, especially if they can make inroads in Democratic-heavy Clark County.In the 2022 midterms, Republicans got a huge boost in the state when their gubernatorial nominee, Clark County Sheriff <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-steve-sisolak-joe-lombardo-nevada-governor-election-2022-11">Joe Lombardo</a>, defeated incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak.But Democrats also notched a major win by reelecting Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-catherine-cortez-masto-adam-laxalt-nevada-senate-election-2022-11">Catherine Cortez Masto</a> to a second term over former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who had been strongly backed by Trump. And after state Democrats approved congressional maps that some in the party saw as especially risky in a GOP wave year, all three of the party's House incumbents — Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee — won their respective races.The ticket-splitting in the midterms once again showed the critical nature of Nevada in national politics. Both parties are looking to win the state in 2024, especially as the economy remains at the forefront of voters' minds.<h2 id="4e302a43-e844-46e3-b75c-b5be667c5284">North Carolina</h2>2012 margin: Romney +2.04%2016 margin: Trump +3.7%2020 margin: Trump +1.3%Since 1980, Republican presidential nominees have won North Carolina in virtually every election, with the exception being Obama's razor-thin 2008 victory over then-Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain.And no presidential candidate has secured a majority of the vote in North Carolina since Romney won 50.4% of the vote in 2012, making this once solidly-red presidential state a real battleground.Democrats have focused heavily on North Carolina this year, given the close nature of the results in 2020, as well as the fact that the party sees the state as one where they can appeal to its suburban electorate — a critical part of Biden's coalition four years ago.However, the GOP is banking on Trump's popularity in the state's rural regions, which could sway the statewide tally in the former president's favor if he's able to effectively turn out his supporters.And in addition to the presidential race is the highly-competitive gubernatorial contest between Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, two well-known statewide figures who are angling to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.<h2 id="10b160e7-a52c-4e12-adfa-b0b6cf0da82c">Pennsylvania</h2>2012 margin: Obama +5.4%2016 margin: Trump +0.7%2020 margin: Biden +1.2%Biden's hometown of Scranton is dear to his heart so Pennsylvania was always going to be a key state for the party in 2024. And even with Biden out of the presidential race, the state remains just as critical for Democrats.Democrats carried Pennsylvania in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012, until Trump narrowly edged out Clinton in 2016, gaining support among the white working-class voters who populate the exurban and rural communities across the state.But Biden clawed back in 2020, boosted by strong returns in Philadelphia and its affluent suburbs, as well as a robust vote in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh.And in 2022, Democrats had a huge year in the state, electing Lt. Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-john-fetterman-mehmet-oz-pennsylvania-us-senate-election-2022-11">John Fetterman</a> to the Senate to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, while also electing state Attorney General <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-doug-mastriano-josh-shapiro-pennsylvania-governor-election-2022-11">Josh Shapiro</a> in a landslide to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf.The party also regained control the state House of Representatives, winning back a majority they lost in the 2010 midterms.Despite the GOP losses, the party — keen on winning back some suburban voters and improving their margins in the state's rural outposts — has been making a major play for Pennsylvania this year.<h2 id="dc1790c5-fa2e-4bc3-8a48-8e88a92bbe00">Wisconsin</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.9%2016 margin: Trump +0.8%2020 margin: Biden +0.6%Wisconsin is one of the most politically divided states in the country.Democratic presidential nominees Al Gore and John Kerry eked out statewide wins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, and Obama won the state easily in 2008 and 2012.But Trump flipped Wisconsin to the GOP in 2016, the first time it had supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.Democrats, stunned by the loss, regrouped and elected Tony Evers as governor in 2018 — knocking out onetime GOP star Scott Walker — while also reelecting Sen. Tammy Baldwin to a second term.Biden went on to narrowly win the state over Trump in 2020.And in November 2022, Evers was reelected to a second term over Republican businessman Tim Michels, while GOP Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-ron-johnson-mandela-barnes-wisconsin-us-senate-election-2022-11">Ron Johnson</a> narrowly defeated then-Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes to earn a third term in the upper chamber.Both parties have been eyeing the Badger State — and looking to turn out their respective bases — in what will be another competitive race on the presidential level.

The 2024 presidential election may come down to swing states' results. Here's where Trump and Harris lead in the polls.

A staggering 93 per cent of the candidates who won the 2024 <keyword id="56978" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="Orion">Lok Sabha elections</keyword> are <keyword id="6366800" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="crorepatis" source="Orion">crorepatis</keyword>, up from 88 per cent in 2019, according to an analysis by poll rights body <keyword id="484381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Association-of-Democratic-Reforms" source="Orion">Association of Democratic Reforms</keyword> (<keyword id="45376" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ADR" source="Orion">ADR</keyword>). The top three wealthiest candidates are TDP's Chandra Sekhar Pemmasani from Andhra Pradesh's Guntur constituency with assets worth Rs 5,705 crore, BJP's Konda Vishweshwar Reddy from Telangana's Chevella with total assets amounting to Rs 4,568 crore and BJP's Naveen Jindal from Haryana's Kurukshetra with assets worth Rs 1,241 crore. Out of the 543 winning candidates, 504 are crorepatis, the analysis found. In 2019, 475 (88 per cent) winning candidates were crorepatis and 443 (82 per cent) in 2014. The trend indicates a steady climb since 2009 when only 315 (58 per cent) MPs were crorepatis. According to the analysis, 227 (95 per cent) of the BJP's 240 winning candidates, 92 (93 per cent) of the Congress' 99, 21 (95 per cent) of the DMK's 22, 27 (93 per cent) of the TMC's 29 and 34 (92 per cent) of the Samajwadi Party's 37 candidates have declared assets worth more than Rs 1 crore. All winning candidates of the AAP (3), the JDU (12) and the TDP (16) are crorepatis, ADR data showed. The analysis also delves into candidates' chances of winning based on their financial backgrounds. It found that the probability of a crorepati candidate clinching victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections stood at 19.6 per cent, compared to a meagre 0.7 per cent for candidates with assets less than a crore. The analysis also provides a breakdown of wealth distribution among the winning candidates. The data showed that 42 per cent of the candidates possess assets totalling Rs 10 crore and above. While 19 per cent of the candidates fall within the bracket of Rs 5 to 10 crore, 32 per cent hold assets ranging between Rs 1 and 5 crore. Only about 1 per cent of the winning candidates have assets worth less than Rs 20 lakh. Among major parties, the average assets per winning candidate vary significantly. The TDP leads with an average of Rs 442.26 crore per winner, followed by the BJP with Rs 50.04 crore, the DMK with Rs 31.22 crore, the Congress with Rs 22.93 crore, TMC with Rs 17.98 crore and SP with Rs 15.24 crore. The analysis also highlights disparities within the financial profiles of winning candidates. While some boast of substantial assets, others have relatively low worth. For instance, BJP's Jyotirmay Singh Mahato from West Bengal's Purulia has declared assets totalling a mere Rs 5 lakh. Similarly, TMC's Mitali Bag from West Bengal's Arambag holds assets worth Rs 7 lakh. Assets of SP's Priya Saroj from Uttar Pradesh's Machhlishahr are valued at Rs 11 lakh. In addition, the analysis identifies candidates with high liabilities. TDP's Pemmasani tops the list with liabilities exceeding Rs 1,038 crore. DMK's S Jagathratchakan from Tamil Nadu's Arakkonam has liabilities worth Rs 649 crore and TDP's Prabhakar Reddy Vemireddy from Andhra Pradesh's Nellore has liabilities worth Rs 197 crore.

93% of Lok Sabha 2024 poll winners are crorepatis: ADR analysis

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Polls close Tuesday night, but it's unclear when we'll know the results of the 2024 election.</li><li>Some states' election laws allow for some votes to be counted before polls close; others do not.</li></ul>After nearly two years of campaigning, two assassination attempts, and an unprecedented decision by the sitting president to drop out of the race, the 2024 US presidential election is coming to an end.Polls have closed in some places, and results will begin rolling in soon.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-sun-belt-polls-2024-11">final week</a> of the race between Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> and former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> was all about outrage, with each candidate trying to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-outrage-garbage-mark-cuban-puerto-rico-2024-11">amplify controversial comments</a> from the other's camp to try to shake up a race in which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">polls remained incredibly tight</a> to the end.The election is expected to come down to just seven states that polling has indicated either candidate could win: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Each state has different election laws, and some are expected to take longer than others to count the vote. If the race is as tight as polling suggests, there's a very good chance we won't know who won the election until sometime after Tuesday night.Here's the latest — and what to watch for.<h2 id="15729b0a-41c1-4bdf-969a-d43a46391721">When we'll know the results in each state</h2>In some states, we may know the results pretty quickly. In others, counting may take days. Poll closing times listed below are in Eastern Time.7 p.m. — Polls close in Georgia, where a winner could be declared by late Tuesday night. Though the state took days to process mail-in ballots in 2020, a new law allowed election officials to begin tabulating those votes Tuesday morning, speeding up the process.7:30 p.m. — Polls close in North Carolina, which has historically counted votes quickly. A winner could be declared Tuesday night.8 p.m. — Polls close in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Michigan is expected to count ballots relatively quickly and could announce a result Tuesday night or early Wednesday.But the Pennsylvania count is expected to take days. That's because the election is expected to be so close in the Keystone State and because a big chunk of the electorate votes by mail, and officials can't begin to count those votes until polls close.In 2020, most news outlets didn't call Pennsylvania until Saturday — at which point Joe Biden became president-elect.9 p.m. — Polls close in Wisconsin and Arizona. We may not know the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/22/politics/vote-counting-delays-election-states/index.html">results in Wisconsin</a> until Wednesday, a state election official told CNN in September, in part because of the amount of time it takes to count absentee ballots in the heavily Democratic city of Milwaukee.Like Pennsylvania, Arizona's vote count is expected to take days, given that most of the electorate is expected to vote by mail. Initial results probably won't be available until 10 p.m.10 p.m. — Polls close in Nevada, which could also take days to count, given that most of the state is expected to vote by mail.<h2 id="7329bb1b-3a45-4204-887d-e708e935be38">How to read the Electoral College math</h2>The US uses the Electoral College to elect a president. Each state gets a set number of votes that correlates with its population — if a state has two US senators and three House members, it has five electoral votes.The winner must get at least 270 electoral votes — a majority of the 538 total. In the vast majority of states, either Harris or Trump is widely expected to win, leaving the campaigns to fight over the 93 electoral votes up for grabs in the seven battleground states.If Harris wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan on Tuesday night or early Wednesday, she will have a projected 273 electoral votes — enough to make her the winner.If Trump sweeps those states, he'll have a projected 266 electoral votes — not enough to be declared the winner but it would him in a very strong position to win.Harris' easiest path to victory would be to win the traditional "blue wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — a result that should put her at 270 electoral votes. She has generally polled better in these states than the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.For Trump, one path to victory would involve holding on to all or most of the Sun Belt states while also winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.

Election results are coming in soon. Here's where things stand.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>In hours, polls will close in the 2024 presidential election.</li><li>Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have fought over Pennsylvania, but both candidates have multiple paths.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-election-predictions-professional-investor-survey-2024-11">Election Day 2024</a> has arrived. Billions have been spent pushing voters to back specific candidates and causes.Vice President Kamala Harris upended the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">presidential race</a> with her late entry. Pre-election polling showed her race against former President Donald Trump could be the closest in history. The margins are so tight that a potential polling error could result in an unexpected blowout.More than 78 million Americans have already voted early, either in person or by mail. Final turnout may dip slightly from the historic mark set in 2020, but a pre-election Gallup poll showed voter <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-republicans-voter-enthusiasm-swing-state-polls-2024-10">enthusiasm above 2008 levels.</a>It's not just control of the White House. Congress is up for grabs, too. Republicans are favored to retake the Senate, thanks to key races occurring on favorable turf. The House is tougher to project. Republicans could net a few seats, or Democrats could flip the chamber with an equally narrow majority. Just like in 2018, New York and California, hardly competitive in the presidential race, loom large.Here's what we're watching.<h2 id="dbd2c6b7-9d67-4564-b035-dd49e1633343">How Trump or Harris will win the White House</h2>Harris' easiest path to victory remains what was once President Biden's last resort: holding Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District — the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">so-called "Blue Wall" </a>and the "Blue Dot." Barring any unexpected upsets, Harris would then win the Electoral College 270 to 268.Trump's easiest route to victory also goes through Pennsylvania, the most important swing state. Winning Pennsylvania would likely allow Trump to retake the White House by holding North Carolina and flipping back Georgia. In that scenario, he could even sustain the blow of losing an Electoral College vote in Nebraska, which pre-election polling shows is very likely.While so much focus is deservedly on Pennsylvania, Trump spent significant time in the race's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-campaign-schedule-final-days-election-north-carolina-pennsylvania-2024-11">final days in North Carolina</a>, even though only two Democrats, Presidents Obama and Carter, have won the Tar Heel state since 1976.<h2 id="33a8541d-7186-485c-9f39-513897c661cf">These are the bellwether counties to watch.</h2>Bucks County, Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro recently called this Philadelphia metro-area county, "the swingiest of all swing counties in the swingiest of all swing states." Hillary Clinton won Bucks by less than 3,000 votes in 2016 and lost both the state and the White House. President Biden won it by just over 17,000 votes four years ago en route to taking his native turf by a roughly 80,000 vote margin. If Trump wants to retake Pennsylvania, doing well here is key.Waukesha County, Wisconsin: Once traditional GOP ground, this Milwaukee-suburban county area has moved closer to Democrats-like suburbs nationwide in the Trump era. Trump routed Clinton here in 2016, but his margin decreased by just over 7 points four years later, as he lost the state by a roughly 21,000-vote margin to Biden.Maricopa County, Arizona: In 2020, the home to Phoenix, the fastest-growing county in the nation, swung to Democrats by just over 2 points. President Biden went on to win the state by just roughly 10,000 votes. In contrast, then-Gov. Doug Ducey, a popular Republican, won the county by almost 14 points two yeas prior.<h2 id="563abb9a-9c88-4a29-ab86-330b0cf1d83b">Here's what early exit polls could tell us:</h2>Exit polls will provide the first major at who turned out to vote early in the evening after the embargo lifts at 5 pm Eastern Time, though specific data on who may win a state is held back until polls close in that area.Though exit polls can offer valuable data, especially about demographics, they are often misleading and are not predictive of an eventual winner.Mark Blumenthal, a contractor at YouGov and previous head of election polling at SurveyMonkey, told Business Insider he will interested in how the vote ends up breaking down by gender and race, particularly given the speculation that Democrats are losing ground among Black and Latino voters.Overall, though, he cautions against making too much of exit polls on election night itself. "As a means of trying to see who is going to win, between the time when they start being released, which is usually 5 pm Eastern tomorrow, and when we get a final count, my advice is to ignore them," Blumenthal said. "Utterly, completely ignore them. Go for a walk. Go take a yoga class, watch something on Netflix, because they're not designed to tell us who's going to be the winner of the presidential election."<h2 id="db285587-345b-4cbd-b4cf-b803271c2358">Republicans are favored to retake control of the Senate.</h2>Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin is trying to hang onto this open senate seat that her fellow Democrats have held for 20 years. Former Congressman Mike Rogers, once a Trump critic, hopes the former president will push him over the top. Rogers and his allies have zeroed in on Slotkin's support for the White House's fuel efficiency standards that do not mandate electric vehicle production but would likely result in the auto industry producing more EVs. Pre-election polling: Slotin was up by roughly 3 points, per RealClearPolitics' averageOhio: Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, has managed to survive past challenges in the former swing state that now tilts toward Republicans. His challenger, Cleveland Businessman Bernie Moreno, has hammered Brown over immigration. According to AdImpact, the Ohio Senate race is the most expensive non-presidential race ever. Pre-election polling: Moreno was up by less than 1 point, per RealClearPolitics' average.Montana: Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, is facing an even tougher challenge in Montana, a state Trump carried by over 16 points in 2020. Republicans worked hard to elevate <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tim-sheehy-montana-senate-gunshot-wound-questions-tester-2024-11">Tim Sheehy</a>, a wealthy aerospace executive, even though expectations of a bruising primary did not come to pass. Like other Republican hopefuls, Sheehy has done everything possible to tie Harris to Tester. Pre-election polling: Sheehy was up by 6.5 points, per RealClearPolitics' average.<h2 id="55c3c49d-49e9-4d7b-b097-24845da6f374">The House is much closer.</h2>Arizona 1st District: Rep. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/david-schweikert-profile-trump-realignment-arizona-economic-interests-abortion-2024-10">David Schweikert</a>, a Republican, has represented Scottsdale and its surrounding areas in Congress for almost 14 years. Gov. Katie Hobbs and Sen. Mark Kelly easily won the area, one of the most educated districts still held by a Republican. His challenger, former state Rep. Amish Shah, has highlighted his centrist record and is hoping Trump's unpopularity will sink Schweikert.New York 19th: Rep. Marc Molinaro was one of four Republicans who flipped a Democratic-held seat during the 2018 midterms in New York, a margin that proved vital to the GOP retaking the chamber. Democrats are hoping Josh Riley, a lawyer and policy analyst, can win in a rematch two years later with the help of Harris at the top of the ticket. More than $35 million has been spent on the race, making it the most expensive House contest in the nation.California 22nd: Rep. David Valadao is one of 18 House Republicans representing a district President Biden won in 2020. Valadao is also one of the only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the January 6 Capitol riot. Former state Rep. Rudy Salas is like many Democrats in key races, hoping to win in a rematch after falling short two years ago.

What to watch for on Election Day as Harris and Trump face off

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple">Apple</a> offers live Election Day results on your iPhone home and lockscreen through its News app.</li><li>You don't need an Apple News+ subscription to access live election updates on iPhones.</li></ul>Apple News is in full-blown <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-sun-belt-polls-2024-11">Election Day</a> mode — and that includes a nifty feature that lets you track the results right from your iPhone lockscreen.The winning candidate will need at least 270 electoral votes to secure victory, and you can keep up with where swing states land at a glance, without having to unlock your iPhone.The feature is available via the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/publishers-worried-about-apple-news-2015-6">News app</a>, which is owned by Apple, and you don't need an Apple News+ subscription to enable it.To turn it on, start by opening up the News app on your iPhone.Apple might prompt you to allow live election updates "starting Tuesday night" as soon as you open up the app. If so, click the "Follow Live" button and you're all set.Those who don't get the pop-up message should check the "Today" section of the app. There, you should find another clickable prompt under the "Top Stories" banner that will enable real-time election results.<div type="image" title="Apple News message" height="968" width="1290" msid="114992652" hostid="261" sizebytes="51810"></div>Once you've turned on the election tracker, you should receive a confirmation message that live activity has been scheduled.The News app comes automatically downloaded to your iPhone, but if you have deleted it, you can re-download it from the App Store.With polls closing on Tuesday night and many people voting after work, there's no guarantee that a winner will be projected on Tuesday night. States like Arizona, Michigan, and Georgia will be critical for both <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-iowa-polling-lead-swing-states-2024-11">Vice President Kamala Harris</a> and former President Donald Trump in this election.For those who decide that having the results staring up at them from their phone's lockscreen is too much, you can always pop back into the News app and turn it off by tapping the same banner prompt.

How to add Apple's election results tracker to your iPhone lockscreen

Aligarh (<keyword id="19894922" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Uttar-Pradesh" source="keywords">Uttar Pradesh</keyword>) [India], April 9 (ANI): Every election season ushers in a slew of party symbols that range from the mundane to the outlandish. The Lok Sabha elections 2024 are no different. <keyword id="19941423" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Independent-candidate" source="keywords">Independent candidate</keyword> from Aligarh in Uttar Pradesh, <keyword id="21244546" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Pandit-Keshav-Dev" source="keywords">Pandit Keshav Dev</keyword>, decided to make the most of what the <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Election-Commission" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Election Commission" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Election Commission">Election Commission</keyword> has allotted to him as the poll symbol- a pair of slippers. Aiming to build recall of people, Dev was seen sporting a garland of 7 slippers around his neck during his campaign. Lok Sabha polls will be held in seven phases beginning April 19. Uttar Pradesh, which sends the maximum number of MPs, 80, to Parliament, will vote in all seven phases. Voting for phases one and two will be held on April 19 and April 26. Next, the state will once again poll in phases three and four on May 7 and May 13. The Uttar Pradesh electorate will also vote in phases five, six and seven on May 20, May 23 and June 1 respectively. Aligarh will go for polls in the second phase on April 26. The counting of votes will take place on June 4. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP candidate Satish Kumar Gautam won from the Aligarh garnering 656215 votes. BJP defeated BSP Dr. Ajeet Baliyan who got 426954 votes. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 71 seats with a 42.6 per cent vote share, while Congress settled for only 2 seats with 7.5 per cent of votes. (ANI)

A pair of slippers - the most unique poll symbol of an independent from Aligarh

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Some US embassies in Europe are skipping traditional election-night viewing parties.</li><li>The presidential election is very close, with prediction models seeing it as a coin toss.</li></ul>US embassies in major European capitals are largely opting out of the traditional <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-night-prep-drinks-specials-cannabis-bipartisan-parties-2024-11">election-night watch parties</a>, partly to avoid an awkward repeat of scenes from 2016, when diplomats had to mask their surprise in front of dozens of guests as the results came in.Traditionally, these events were when journalists, foreign diplomats, and other high-ranking officials would come together to see how the US voted.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-us-election-eu-embassies-hillary-clinton/">Politico was the first to report</a> that embassies in London, Paris, Brussels, and Berlin are forgoing the usual election festivities as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-momentum-presidential-race-debate-polls-2024-9">Vice President Kamala Harris faces off against former President Donald Trump</a> in what is expected to be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-civil-unrest-risk-kamala-harris-donald-trump-2024-11">a very close contest.</a>Prediction models have characterized it as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-preview-consumer-outlook-how-trump-harris-housing-taxes-2024-11">a coin-toss election.</a>Two elections ago, Samantha Power, the US Ambassador to the United Nations at the time, hosted a viewing party with a group of powerful women, including former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, feminist icon Gloria Steinem, and female ambassadors to the UN.The party was documented in a 2017 HBO documentary, "The Final Year," and showed guests becoming increasingly tense and emotional as it became clear that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/hillary-clinton">Hillary Clinton</a> would not become the first female US president.Similarly, Politico spoke to then-Ambassador Anthony Gardner, who hosted a 2016 viewing party at the US Embassy in Brussels. The outlet reported that as it became clear that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-election-results-2016-11">Trump was set to win</a>, the mood turned, with one woman weeping quietly.A senior diplomat in Europe, who was not named, told Politico that the 2016 embassy events had been "calamitous."They added, "I don't think there was appetite to watch another Trump victory."Though Brussels, Berlin, London, and Paris won't be hosting events, Rome will.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-sun-belt-polls-2024-11">race for the White House is tight</a>, with polling showing that both candidates are virtually tied in the swing states needed to win.There's another, more practical reason some embassies may be forgoing a traditional viewing party.Simply put, the outcome may not be clear on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-election-forecast-most-accurate-economist-predicts-outcome-economic-impact-2024-10">election night</a> — it could drag on for days or possibly weeks.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">Knife-edge races</a> in battleground states could mean that it takes longer to call the winner, and really narrow victories could result in recounts.The US Embassy in London said as much.A spokesperson told Politico that while it "appreciates the long-standing energy and excitement around US presidential elections which have been carried out over nearly 250 years of democracy," it added that "election day does not end on election night."The spokesperson continued, "Time may be required to count votes and let the electoral process work."

US embassies are holding off on election watch-night parties, fearing they could get awkward

The tallies for each constituency are in, and the arithmetic for the next government is being worked out. If the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (<keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP" source="keywords">BJP</keyword>) manages to hold onto their alliances, the stage will be set for Modi 3.0. However, if the Congress-led INDIA bloc somehow lures major parties like JD(U) and TDP, they might have a chance, though it is a long shot at the moment. However, with the results out for all 543 constituencies, much has been revealed about the general attitude of the country’s voters. For instance, despite the almost-unshakable belief that the BJP will sweep almost all 80 <keyword id="19894922" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Uttar-Pradesh" source="keywords">Uttar Pradesh</keyword> seats — especially after the Ram Mandir inauguration — the party shockingly only managed to win only 33. Some experts speculate that this outcome came from the party failing to address core issues such as employment and economic anxiety, and instead choosing to focus on religious divide to win ballots. Expert institutions, such as Bernstein and Citi Research, have now noted that new spendings may now thus become focused on the poor, women, farmers and rural areas, especially considering how rapidly BJP’s <a href="https://bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/bias-of-markets-expected-rural-agriculture-to-be-the-new-focus-areas-reports/110728041">vote share has dropped in the rural seats</a>. For context, rural constituencies make up 60% of the total constituencies in India, according to The Economic Times. However, this is not to say that the party has clear favourites among the more developed and richer states either. Many of the richest Indian states have expressed mixed to lukewarm reactions towards BJP this election cycle, and even delivered unexpected shockers. For instance, the NDA lost a lot of ground in Uttar Pradesh, <keyword id="19897316" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Maharashtra" source="keywords">Maharashtra</keyword> and Rajasthan — some states with the biggest economies in the country. As for the current scenario, the party favourite remains mixed. Considering that the country has delayed the National Survey by four years, we have to rely on independent sources to come up with more current state-wide economic statistics. Therefore, as per the India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), <keyword id="19896017" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Karnataka" source="keywords">Karnataka</keyword>, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat formed the five largest state economies in India in the 2023 Financial Year. Let’s take a look at how India’s wealthiest states voted in <keyword id="20886626" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-2024" source="keywords">Lok Sabha 2024</keyword>. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Karnataka" comment="subhead" text="Karnataka">Karnataka</cmsannotation> Despite struggles with making headway in the South, the BJP had made a clean sweep in Karnataka, bagging 25 seats in the 2019 general elections. While the BJP-JD(S) alliance has managed to retain a majority in the southern state with 17 seats, <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword> made an impressive comeback this year, winning 9 seats compared to the 1 in the last election cycle. JD(S) managed to capture the remaining two seats. As for the four Bengaluru constituencies, BJP managed to cling onto all of them as well, with Tejasvi Surya in Bengaluru South, Shobha Karandlaje in Bengaluru North, P. C. Mohan in Bengaluru Central and C. N. Manjunath in Bengaluru Rural. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Uttar Pradesh" comment="subhead" text="Uttar Pradesh">Uttar Pradesh</cmsannotation> As mentioned earlier, the biggest controversies came out of Uttar Pradesh. Housing prominent figures such as Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, the state has been widely considered as a stronghold for the saffron party, who had won a whopping 62 seats in 2019. However, resident voters were determined to take to the booths to voice their dissent this year. Of the 80 UP constituencies — by far the state with the largest number of seats — 37 were won by the Samajwadi Party. Meanwhile, the BJP held onto 33 seats, and the INC 6. The difference is stark: BJP lost 27 of the seats it won in the previous election cycle. Many prominent figures were dethroned this year, including Smriti Irani in Amethi, Union Minister Ajay Kumar Mishra in Kheri and Maneka Gandhi in Sultanpur. However, perhaps the biggest shocker came from the fact that the BJP also lost the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat, which housed the contentious Ram Temple. Awadesh Prasad of the Samajwadi Party will be chairing the constituency for the next five years. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, too, contested for the Varanasi seat, beating INC’s Ajay Rai by a margin of 2.5 lakh votes. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Maharashtra" comment="subhead" text="Maharashtra">Maharashtra</cmsannotation> Another of the biggest losses for the BJP also saw a resurgence for Congress in the state with the highest <keyword id="35050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gdp" source="Orion">GDP</keyword>. While the NDA had clinched 41 out of the 48 seats in the previous 2019 elections, it managed to bag a paltry 9 this time around. While this is a monumental loss for the ruling party, they managed to hold firmly onto most of the coastal Konkan belt. Headed by the Mahayuti alliance, the BJP won 7 of the 12 coastal seats, including in Palghar, Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg and Mumbai North. Meanwhile, the Shiv Sena (UBT) maintained its hold on half of the six Mumbai constituencies. Of the four Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) seats, NCP (SP) won Bhiwandi, Shinde-led Shiv Sena won Thane and Kalyan and BJP won Palghar. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Tamil Nadu" comment="subhead" text="Tamil Nadu">Tamil Nadu</cmsannotation> Of all the economic powerhouses, Tamil Nadu was the only state untouched by the BJP this year. Out of the 39 seats in the state, the MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) came out victorious in 22, the INC won 9, while a coalition of other parties bagged the remaining seats. This was a massive win for the DMK, especially considering the two major opposition parties, the AIADMK and BJP, had come together to contest this year. Considered by many as BJP's most promising candidate, K Annamalai, too lost to DMK’s Ganapathi P Rajkumar in Coimbatore. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Gujarat" comment="subhead" text="Gujarat">Gujarat</cmsannotation> While most of the other states endured major plot-twists, the story has remained almost the same for Narendra Modi’s home state, Gujarat. As per final polls, the BJP won 25 of the total 26 seats in the state, falling short of a full clean sweep due to INC clutching the final one. However, the INC win in the Banaskantha Lok Sabha seat was no small victory, considering this was the first time in a decade that the party had made ground in the western state. Meanwhile, Home Minister Amit Shah contested and won from state capital Gandhinagar by a massive margin of nearly 7.5 lakh votes.

Lok Sabha 2024: How BJP, Congress and other parties have performed in states with largest economies in India

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors should beware of a contested US election, BlackRock's Jean Boivin told Bloomberg TV on Thursday.</li><li>He joins a chorus of market strategists predicting volatility if election results are delayed.</li></ul>Investors are dismissing the risk of a disputed US election, BlackRock Investment Institute head Jean Boivin told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-10-24/blackrock-s-boivin-on-us-election-risks-for-markets-video">Bloomberg TV</a> on Thursday."For us, the main thing to watch is really more the contested election scenario that could be weeks of very disrupting legal battles," he said.Boivin added: "I don't think that's in the price and that's where if you want to prepare for some scenario where you need to react, I think that's one of those scenarios that could be bad for markets."The possibility is not far-fetched, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris locked in a razor-close contest. Recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-presidential-election-swing-state-polls-sun-belt-2024-10">battleground state polling</a> shows a race too close to call with the election less than two weeks away.Overall, he considers it a "fool's errand" to try and trade on what happens come November.However, that hasn't stopped investors from trying: recent weeks have seen the so-called "<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/donald-trump-trade-rally-betting-markets-kamala-harris-bitcoin-djt-2024-10?_gl=1*1bjr9iu*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTY4Nzg0MS43NTYuMS4xNzI5NjkxNDUyLjYwLjAuMA..">Trump trade</a>" rise on the prospect that the Republican candidate will win, as suggested by betting markets.Other market strategists have echoed in recent weeks Boivin's concern over what an election dispute would mean for markets.According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/presidential-election-2024-market-forecasts">Morgan Stanley</a>, delayed results have historically triggered short-term volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index — also known as the stock market's fear gauge — spiked 40% during the 2020 election. The measure only eased when a winner was officially declared days later.In another example, Stifel's chief Washington policy strategist Brian Gardner noted that the equity market sold off during the 2000 election dispute between George W. Bush and Al Gore. The S&amp;P 500 fell approximately 5% between Election Day and December 13th, when the Supreme Court ended the legal challenges.However, Gardner points out that macroeconomic backdrops might play a hidden role in these scenarios. In 2000, stocks were steering through the dot-com bubble's rupture. Meanwhile, stocks rose during Trump's election dispute in 2020, likely due to signs that the COVID-19 pandemic was ending."The main takeaway for investors is that the dominant economic and market conditions at the time drove the financial markets rather than political events," he <a target="_blank" href="https://www.stifel.com/Newsletters/AdGraphics/InSight/Potomac-Perspectives/2024/PP_102224.pdf">wrote</a> on Tuesday.As of now, current macroeconomic strength has shifted outlooks on the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting path, leading the bond market through a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/treasury-yields-bonds-interest-rates-economy-inflation-election-labor-market-2024-10">steep sell-off</a>.

A contested election that leads to weeks of uncertainty is a risk being overlooked by markets

Ben Higgins, 35, could be your prototypical politician.Charming, handsome, and well spoken, Higgins uses his work as an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/kitchen/generous-coffee-review">entrepreneur and philanthropist</a> to help fight poverty. He's also an independent who doesn't identify strongly with either side of the political spectrum."It's very topic by topic for me," he said. "It's very much understanding the issue, hearing the story behind the issue, hearing why people believe what they believe, and then trying to make logical, rational solutions and decisions."If Higgins' name sounds familiar, it's probably because you saw him on television — and not during a debate. Higgins served as the 20th American Bachelor on ABC's long-running and wildly popular romance reality show. Higgins did somewhat attempt to use "The Bachelor" as a jumping-off point into politics; back in 2016, he was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thewrap.com/ben-higgins-bachelor-congress/">given the opportunity to run for state representative in Colorado</a> while working on his own spinoff show. But that bid was incredibly short-lived."That ran into issues over time, mostly legally, with how that was going to be filmed and who they were filming and how they were showing it. And that's ultimately why my campaign had to end," Higgins said — seemingly nodding to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.denverpost.com/2016/07/25/disney-abc-forces-ben-higgins-drop-colorado-house-race/">reports</a> that the corporate overlords at Disney, which owns ABC, did not want to televise the former Bachelor's political ambitions. (The Disney-owned channel set to air the spin-off said at the time it had concerns broadcasting a show featuring the campaign "could raise significant compliance issues under Colorado election laws.")<div type="image" title="Ben Higgins and Lauren Bushnell discuss &quot;The Bachelor&quot; at AOL Studios in New York on March 15, 2016 in New York City." height="2000" width="3000" msid="113455139" hostid="261" sizebytes="203656"></div>Bachelor Nation's aversion to comingling political ambitions with the TV show makes some sense. Popular culture has for years been breaking into niche after niche. You can exist in a bubble of "The Bear" watchers without ever joining the masses watching "Young Sheldon." But "The Bachelor" is different: It's perhaps one of our last monocultures, alongside stalwarts like the NFL. The show, which kicked off in 2002, has had its ratings stumbles over the years, but it has recently experienced <a target="_blank" href="https://deadline.com/2024/03/the-bachelor-joey-record-ratings-hometown-dates-abc-1235846511/">a viewership resurgence</a>, with just over <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thewrap.com/the-bachelor-season-28-finale-ratings-abc/">6.3 million people tuning in to watch the finale of Joey Graziadei's season</a> in March. "The Golden Bachelor," which featured contestants over the age of 60, delivered blockbuster ratings in late 2023, reaching the coveted <a target="_blank" href="https://deadline.com/2024/01/the-golden-bachelor-35-day-delayed-viewership-abc-1235805784/">18-to-49 market</a> while <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/arts/television/golden-bachelor-senior-center-watch-party.html">courting older viewers</a>. Given the franchise's relatively strong position, why risk that power by mixing in the messy, polarizing, and exhausting world of American politics?But under the surface, "The Bachelor" is already a political show. Whitewashed, vaguely Christian, and deeply heterosexual, the presentation of "The Bachelor" is a lot like the median US voter, which is also the exact audience it's long catered to. Its fandom reaches across a wide spectrum of the population in a way few other forms of mass media do, and the show itself reflects many of the broad sociopolitical themes in America. So it might be worth accepting the rose and looking at what the show tells us about the country. By understanding "The Bachelor," we can better understand the political landscape of America — and maybe even glean a little insight into this year's election.<h2>Who will win the 2024 rose?</h2>Graziadei, the Bachelor who delivered monster ratings in the spring, made a cameo in February at a different kind of rose ceremony. Instead of looking for love on his own, Graziadei was helping the second gentleman, Doug Emhoff, <a target="_blank" href="https://bachelornation.com/2024/02/14/joey-graziadei-visits-the-white-house-and-helps-the-second-gentleman-give-the-vice-president-a-rose/">present a rose to Vice President Kamala Harris</a> in honor of Valentine's Day. It was a moment that breached the fourth wall of "The Bachelor": a lead openly acknowledging and becoming a part of politics. (The White House declined to comment on the collaboration.)When Chad Kultgen and Lizzy Pace, the cohosts of the popular "Bachelor" podcast "Game of Roses" and coauthors of "How to Win The Bachelor," saw the video of Graziadei at the White House, they were stunned. Their podcast examines the game mechanics of "The Bachelor" like a sport — akin to its fellow monoculture, the NFL — and goes in deep with statistical metrics to analyze contestants' strategies and plays. Pace said she "screamed" when the video came out."I couldn't believe what I was looking at," she told us. Kultgen, for his part, theorized that it was orchestrated by Harris' people — you wouldn't see a producer or ABC reaching out to the White House for a collab."Whoever's part of putting together their propaganda is saying: We need to get 'The Bachelor' in here," Kultgen said of the strategy by the vice president's team.<div type="image" title="Joey Graziadei smiles in front of the Bachelor mansion in a blue suit, white shirt, and black tie." height="2400" width="3000" msid="113455146" hostid="261" sizebytes="213676"></div>Beyond the holiday-themed video, the Harris campaign's desire to court Bachelor Nation was also made clear by a line tucked away in a recent press release about its big plan to spend $90 million in August on advertising."Ads will be targeted to high-impact programming that reaches the voters Team Harris-Walz needs to reach to win 270 electoral votes," the press release said. "That includes local broadcast and cable programming and non-political programming like The Bachelorette, Big Brother, The Daily Show, Love &amp; Hip Hop: Atlanta, and The Simpsons."During a political season that is awash in advertising, the campaign is sending a clear signal: The demographics it can reach during breaks from the rose ceremony could be key to swinging the election.The focus on Bachelor Nation also makes sense given the franchise's viewership is dominated by one of the most crucial swing votes of recent elections: white women. A 2020 <a target="_blank" href="https://today.yougov.com/entertainment/articles/33065-bachelor-nation-profile-poll">study from the polling firm YouGov</a> found that about three-quarters of "Bachelor" fans were women and that a similar share was white. The fandom is split between younger and older viewers; about one-third of viewers were between ages 25 and 44, while roughly one-quarter were 65 or older. In the past two presidential elections, white women were the most closely split demographic subgroup tracked by major exit polls. In <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls">2016</a>, Donald Trump won over 52% of white women against Hillary Clinton's 43%, exit polls found, while Trump bested Joe Biden in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results">2020</a> among white women 55% to 44%. That relatively close divide is set to continue in 2024. In the Pew Research Center's most recent national poll, conducted between August 6 and September 2, Trump led among white women with 54% of the vote to Harris' 45%. As in the exit polls from the past two elections, that 9-point difference was the smallest among the race and gender groups studied in the poll.The close divide is even more apparent in key swing states. A <a target="_blank" href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3904">Quinnipiac swing-state poll</a> conducted between September 4 and September 8 found a tight race between Trump and Harris in Georgia and North Carolina, and the cross-tabulations suggested that white women could be a deciding factor in each state. Trump had a strong 64% to 31% lead over Harris among white women in Georgia, but in North Carolina, Harris led among the demographic 51% to 47%. It shows how this group could decide the next election.And rather than catering to one side of the political aisle or the other, Hulu, the platform that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/streaming/where-to-watch-the-bachelorette-season-21">hosts "The Bachelor" for streaming</a>, has robust bipartisan usage. In a <a target="_blank" href="https://pro.morningconsult.com/morning-consult-intelligence">Morning Consult Intelligence</a> poll of 27,633 people from January 1, 2023, to September 9, 2024, about half of US adults said they used Hulu. As for the demographics of that usage, about 56% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans said they used Hulu — with Republicans in particular seeing a spike during the most recent season of "The Bachelorette."The overlap between the swingiest demographic and the "Bachelor" audience suggests Bachelor Nation has value to those who seek to lead our nation.<h2>A tense history of race and religion</h2>As much as "The Bachelor" can tell us about the state of the country's politics, America's shifting landscape has also been reflected back into the reality of the show. For most of its run, the show has operated within a certain framework: Politics are never overtly discussed, and neither are hot-button issues like abortion or guns. Things like a nonwhite lead or a predominantly nonwhite cast are still relatively new in the world of "The Bachelor." It's also rooted in an omnipresent but barely visible sense of Christianity. Contestants are assumed to be Christian until they're not — but skew too evangelical, and you're edited to look a little less religious."I actually find 'The Bachelor' to be very political. When I watch the show, it, to me — it is pretty obvious that it's a conservative-leaning production," Natasha Scott-Reichel, a cohost of the popular "Bachelor" and pop-culture podcast "2 Black Girls, 1 Rose," said. While the show might be aiming to be apolitical, that's a statement in and of itself."The void of diversity for so long is within itself a statement about its politics — that it is trying to cater to this Middle America that is very afraid of conversations, particularly surrounding race or sexual identity or sexual orientation," Scott-Reichel said.In the past few years, however, politics and the contestants' political identities have begun to spill into the carefully maintained middle of the road. For the Americans who have seen their loved ones — or even themselves — galvanized out of political apathy in the wake of the 2016 and 2020 elections, it's a transformation mirrored by their favorite reality show.In 2018, Claire Fallon — a cohost of the popular "Bachelor" podcast "Love to See It" — accidentally helped kick off one of the first public cracks in the "Bachelor" veneer of apoliticism. Before the Bachelorette Becca Kufrin's season even kicked off, Fallon and her cohost, Emma Gray, helped <a target="_blank" href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/bachelorette-premiere-garrett-yrigoyen_n_5b0837d9e4b0fdb2aa5342b6">corroborate accounts</a> that Garrett Yrigoyen, the eventual winner, had been liking posts from right-wing Instagram pages. Kufrin was a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bachelorette-becca-kufrin-garrett-yrigoyen-social-media-instagram-scandal-2018-5">fairly public liberal</a>, which turned the whole viewing experience from a fairytale love story into something much more realistically American: two people who were dating and did not realize they had drastically different political views. That moment was a pivotal tiptoe toward something new. Yrigoyen apologized for his likes and discussed how it strained him and Kufrin as a couple. But the conversation didn't broach the substance of those likes. The couple split in 2020, and Kufrin <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bachelorette-becca-kufrin-vote-election-2021-1">later told Business Insider</a>'s Anneta Konstantinides that if she were to become the Bachelorette again, the first thing she'd do when she walked into the house would be to ask everyone whom they voted for."There's no way in hell they'd show that conversation," she said.And while the fan base moved on to its next Bachelor — Colton Underwood, a former NFL player who later came out as gay and <a target="_blank" href="https://people.com/tv/colton-underwood-jordan-c-brown-relationship-timeline/">married a Democratic strategist</a> — Fallon said politics started to become an active topic of discussion in the parasocial world of its loyal fan base. Higgins thinks the fascination with contestants' politics and likes goes back to something at the core of the show: relatability (he believes this is why he was handed the lead role). People want to see themselves in contestants, and that includes some of their closest-held beliefs."I think people are still looking for that relatability, and so they're intrigued with, 'Well, I like you for what I see on television, but do I like you for actually what you stand for politically?'" Higgins said. The Kufrin-Yrigoyen situation was mostly quelled (or at least forgotten) in the court of public opinion, and as Fallon said, the show erected barriers against the rising tides of political polarization, working hard to keep itself out of it. But soon, the barriers were fully breached. The 25th season of "The Bachelor," which aired in early 2021, featured the <a target="_blank" href="https://people.com/tv/matt-james-official-bachelor-cast-meet-the-32-women/">franchise's first Black male lead</a>, Matt James, who was 28 when the show was filming. Rachael Kirkconnell, the season's eventual winner, caused a whirlwind of controversy when photos emerged on social media of the contestant <a target="_blank" href="https://people.com/tv/rachael-kirkconnell-dropped-out-college-greek-life-after-she-learned-formal-racist/">attending an antebellum-plantation-themed party</a> a few years prior. The reaction was furious. James' and Kirkconnell's finale, broadcast live after the pictures had come out, eschewed the traditional "Bachelor" ending of checking in on the happy couple in favor of a two-hour discussion on race in America. The franchise's longtime host, Chris Harrison, was fired after defending Kirkconnell's photos — even though she was on a tour apologizing for them. A franchise that had long aimed to sit in a happy apolitical parallel-universe America unburdened by the country's often dark history was thrust onto one of the nation's core cultural fault lines."That was a moment where the political turmoil in our country created an internal conflict for the show that it couldn't really resolve," Fallon said. Since then, it's been difficult for the show to avoid politics despite desperate attempts to steer away from them. And as Justine Kay, the other cohost of "2 Black Girls, 1 Rose," noted, it took making a Black woman the Bachelorette — the well-regarded Charity Lawson — to <a target="_blank" href="https://deadline.com/2023/08/the-bachelorette-season-20-delayed-viewing-ratings-fantasy-suites-abc-1235520103/">lure audience members back</a> to the show, which had been <a target="_blank" href="https://collider.com/the-bachelorette-season-20-successful-marriage/">dealing with its own rating slump</a>.Since then, much like the rest of America's interest in the daily machinations of Trump-run Washington, the fans' fascination with the contestants' politics hasn't evaporated but seems to have become more tempered. After all, President Joe Biden's tenure has often <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/11/joe-biden-2024-election-post-policy-era/676157/">been</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/joe-biden-2024-donald-trump-boring-important-1234723195/">deemed</a> boring, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-economy-is-bidenomics-working-policies-progress-unnoticed-2023-9">marked instead by quieter policy work</a>. In the same vein, over the past few seasons, prominent contestants have reportedly liked right-wing and Trump-leaning posts; those revelations haven't seemed to rock the fan base as much as in the past."Partly what we're seeing is that it feels like the battle for cultural dominance in the form of 'Bachelor,' within the franchise, is no longer a fever pitch," Fallon said. "It feels like the liberal viewers sort of won."Kultgen tied that sentiment to the larger political landscape. During the Trump administration, right-wing posts and sentiments were not given an inch of space because every moment felt like a crisis. The "Bachelor" fan base's newfound shrugging might reflect the cultural and political spotlight Trump has lost; he's a candidate who can become effectively trolled over claims around <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-trolled-donald-trump-about-rally-crowd-size-2024-9">how many people are showing up to watch him</a>. In the past — like in 2018 — questioning Trump support was a brave new world for Bachelor Nation. Now it's become almost the default. It's ironic that the reality-TV-show candidate has lost the reality-TV viewers. Of course, that's not to say that the "Bachelor" fan base, or contestant base, became leftist overnight. But the carving of centrist, left-leaning politics as the new base expectation is a development years in the making. This time, there was no larger-scale reckoning onstage with the ramifications of liking Trump; the show has done that, something that would've been unheard of a decade ago. And if that's where the winds of the monoculture are blowing, the Harris-Walz campaign ad spend might be a good bet.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/juliana-kaplan">Juliana Kaplan</a> is a senior labor and inequality reporter on Business Insider's economy team.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/andy-kiersz">Andy Kiersz</a> is a quantitative editor on Business Insider's economy team.

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