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The <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> presented by <keyword id="20426375" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Finance-Minister-Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman">Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> has projected a <keyword id="19997196" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="growth-rate" source="keywords">growth rate</keyword> of 6.5 per cent and 7 per cent further solidifying <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s strong <keyword id="20018805" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="macroeconomic-fundamentals" source="keywords">macroeconomic fundamentals</keyword>, <keyword id="20060150" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CBRE" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="CBRE" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="CBRE">CBRE</keyword> Chairman and CEO-India, South-East Asia, Middle East and Africa, <keyword id="20177586" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anshuman-Magazine" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anshuman Magazine" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="Anshuman Magazine">Anshuman Magazine</keyword> said on Monday. The country's economic performance in FY'24 surpassed expectations, registering a robust growth rate of 8.2 per cent. "This momentum is noteworthy considering three out of the past four quarters exceeded the 8 per cent growth mark," he said in his reaction to the Economic Survey. <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">Inflation</keyword> is anticipated to moderate around 4.5 per cent and it reflects a 'well-balanced' economic environment, he said. "The survey acknowledges the <keyword id="20152263" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate-sector" source="keywords">real estate sector</keyword>, particularly the residential segment, as a significant driver of <keyword id="20018651" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-investment" source="keywords">private investment</keyword>. The survey emphasizes the importance of continued collaboration between central and state governments, along with the private sector, to sustain this momentum," Magazine said in a statement. India's post-pandemic recovery has been orderly and expansive and it is testament to the underlying resilience of the economy, he said. "Looking ahead to FY'25, several indicators such as robust private consumption, increased bank lending activity and improved corporate capital expenditure indicate towards a good year ahead," he added.

Economic Survey pegs growth at 6.5-7%; solidifying India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals: CBRE

The rise in <keyword id="6468581" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="housing-prices" source="Orion">housing prices</keyword> and mortgage rates have impacted affordability levels to buy homes in the last two years across seven major cities but it may improve next year due to a likely reduction in repo rate, according to JLL India. The improvement in affordability levels would further boost housing sales, which have risen despite increases in property prices and interest rates on home loans. The consultant on Sunday released its 'Home Purchase Affordability Index' (HPAI), which signifies whether a household earning an average annual income (at an overall city level) is eligible for a housing loan on a property in the city at the prevailing market price. "The rising repo rate in 2022 as the RBI reacted to the global recessionary and inflationary trends, plus a strong demand recovery spurring price hikes, worsened affordability in 2022," the report said. In 2023, the consultant said that affordability levels are likely to marginally worsen or remain the same when compared to 2022. A stronger price increase has been countered by stagnancy in repo rate movement, declining <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> and relatively higher growth in household incomes, the consultant explained. "In 2024, we are likely to see a renaissance with affordability levels expected to be on an improving trajectory as <keyword id="493702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="macroeconomic" source="Orion">macroeconomic</keyword> fundamentals support a repo rate reversal and thereby interest rate reduction that could provide another fillip to the residential sales market," the report said. JLL expects a 60-80 basis points reduction in repo in the next year. It has derived this index through a combination of variables, which include home loan interest rates, average household income and price of the residential apartment. The HPAI is the ratio of the average household income to the eligible household income. Eligible household income is defined as the minimum income that a household should earn to qualify for a home loan on a 1,000-square-foot apartment at the prevailing market price. A value of 100 means that a household has exactly enough income to qualify for the loan. A value less than 100 implies that an average household does not have enough income to qualify for a housing loan. A value of more than 100 implies that an average household has more than enough income to qualify for a home loan. As per the data, the affordability index in Mumbai is estimated to dip to 88 from 92. In Delhi NCR, the index is seen declining to 121 from 125. The Index of Bengaluru is estimated to have dipped to 158 from 168. The index in Hyderabad is seen at 169 against 174 last year. Pune will witness a marginal fall to 182 from 183, while Kolkata will see a marginal improvement to 194 from 193. The affordability index of Chennai is estimated to be flat at 162 this year. JLL India noted that affordability was at its lowest in 2013 before rising on a sustained basis through 2014 to hit optimal levels in 2021. "Despite residential price hikes being sustained in 2023, better economic and job prospects and healthier income growths compared to 2022 have led to a relatively minor dip in affordability in 2023. "In fact, affordability levels remain much above the pre-COVID and worst affordability periods for all cities, clearly highlighting the headroom for market growth to continue," said Siva Krishnan, Managing Director and Head of Residential Services, India, JLL.

Affordability levels to buy homes hit in last 2 years; to improve in 2024 on likely repo rate cut: JLL

New Delhi, India's services sector activity eased in August but growth rates for new orders remain elevated, as services firms indicated the sharpest upturn in new export business which acted as a catalyst for firms to expand their workforces as well as output, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. Despite falling from 62.3 in July to 60.1 in August, the seasonally adjusted S&amp;P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index indicated one of the strongest increases in output seen since mid-2010. For the 25th straight month, the headline figure was above the neutral 50 threshold. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction. "Indian services companies achieved a remarkable milestone in August, as they welcomed a series record surge in new export business. Several regions contributed to the upturn, including Asia Pacific, Europe, North America and the Middle East," <keyword id="2835710" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="pollyanna-de-lima" source="Orion">Pollyanna De Lima</keyword>, Economics Associate Director at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said. Lima further noted that this spike in international demand supported one of the best sales performances recorded over the past 13 years, and acted as a catalyst for firms to expand their workforces as well as output. "Demand strength also fostered a heightened sense of optimism regarding the outlook, boding well for economic growth prospects," Lima said. On August 10, the <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) left its key interest rates unchanged for a third straight meeting but signalled tighter policy if food prices drive inflation higher. The next meeting of the <keyword id="3446352" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rbi-monetary-policy-committee" source="Orion">RBI Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) is scheduled for October 4-6. On the prices front, buoyant demand for services meanwhile aided a further upward revision to selling prices. The rate of charge inflation quickened to the joint-fastest in over six years, while input costs rose to a lesser extent. "... Favourable demand trends also led to the joint-fastest increase in prices charged for Indian services in over six years, which may prompt attention from policymakers and potentially delay cuts to the benchmark repo rate," Lima added. On the jobs front, hiring activity across India's service economy continued to expand. The rate of job creation was moderate, but the strongest seen since last November. Going ahead, monitored companies firmly believed that output would remain on an upward growth path over the course of the coming 12 months. Advertising, demand strength, plans to price competitively and a healthy number of client enquiries all boosted optimism in August. Meanwhile, there was a mild slowdown in the growth of private sector activity across India during August. The S&amp;P Global India Composite PMI Output Index -- which measures combined services and manufacturing output -- fell from 61.9 in July to 60.9 in August. Despite the fall, the S&amp;P Global India Composite PMI Output Index was indicative of a sharp rate of expansion that was among the strongest in over 12 years, the survey said. The S&amp;P Global India Services PMI is compiled by S&amp;P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to a panel of around 400 service sector companies. The panel is stratified by detailed sector and company workforce size, based on contributions to GDP. Data collection began in December 2005.

India's services sector activity moderates in August; exports expand at record pace

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Markets may be headed for a decade of austerity, Research Affiliates wrote in a note.</li><li>October's equity correction signaled that the economy was normalizing under high interest rates.</li></ul>Economic resilience has helped investors weather this year's uncertainties better than most had hoped. But now, a cycle of normalization places markets at an inflection point, as a decade of austerity starts to take over, <a href="https://www.researchaffiliates.com/publications/articles/1005-from-abundance-to-austerity?evar36=eml_from-abundance-to-austerity-2023-11-14_heroJustPublished_buttonLink&amp;_cldee=DvX3U7Y7cmzVpmvnj9vQprQNnOKZ9-oUDi90x5JEbD4Oz4Y7StVAzZotma5lDvG9&amp;recipientid=contact-6bc1e2cff94bee11be6f00224828d4ab-c3a4581293db4542b34d10e1524fe78f&amp;esid=b1cdf4b6-3f82-ee11-8179-00224828d4ab" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Research Affiliates' Chief Investment Officer Jim Masturzo wrote</a>.According to him, the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-looks-like-1987-no-october-crash-2023-10">corrective slump</a> that hit markets in October was a potential sign that the economy is transitioning away from post-pandemic distortions, such as high savings that have largely been consumed."We see the current selloff as a potential inflection point in the transition from a decade of abundance to one of austerity," he said.That will ignite pain for equity and long-term fixed income markets, as prices respond to an increasing cohort of risk-off investors.It marks a major shift in the investing environment. Before the Federal Reserve sharply increased rates to a 5.25%-5.50% over the last year and a half, markets enjoyed an era of ultra-low interest rates that followed the 2008 financial crash. "While no one stopped the music for the better part of the last 15 years, this game of macroeconomic musical chairs cannot go on forever," Masturzo said. Now, tighter monetary policy in a period of high deficit spending mean US Treasury yields will continue climbing."Higher rates are also expected to lower asset prices, unleashing a vicious cycle of lower capital gains and similar tax receipts that the government relies on for revenue. Lower government revenues, in turn, create the need for more borrowing, causing annual budget deficits and the national debt to spiral even higher," Masturzo added.Despite the Fed's best efforts, he noted that investors should also prepare for elevated inflation to stick around for the long term. Commodities will be the key driver of growth, especially as demand for them grows from both fossil fuel and renewable energy sectors.For investors looking to get ahead of these headwinds, Masturzo noted a handful of asset types: Safe havens, such as gold, real estate, commodities and some digital assets are attractive as current US debt levels will only get in the way of reducing inflation. Meanwhile, with real interest rates expected to remain positive, bonds will be a compelling investment. However, Masturzo suggested Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities as a more reasonable purchase.For equity shareholders, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/growth-stocks-value-stocks-inflation-rebound-ai-investing-rob-arnott-2023-9">value stocks</a> will pay off better than growth investments, as valuations become a more important consideration. Investors should also keep an eye out on emerging markets, as Masturzo expects the dollar to depreciate with time. Developing economies are also better suited for the upcoming decade:"EM policymakers raised rates earlier and got inflation under control with less fallout than in past episodes. The emerging markets enjoy access to commodities in high demand, providing a natural base of growth, and their capital markets are poised to rebound from oversold conditions due to years of under-allocation," he wrote.

Markets are headed for a decade of austerity as the 'game of macroeconomic musical chairs' will stop, investment chief says

<keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>'s <keyword id="493702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="macroeconomic" source="Orion">macroeconomic</keyword> stability indicators will gradually improve in FY24 owing to a combination of factors, <keyword id="48670" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="morgan-stanley" source="Orion">Morgan Stanley</keyword> said in a report. According to Morgan Stanley, the macro stability indicators will gradually improve in F24 from somewhat elevated levels inAF23. "A combination of easing in global commodity prices (<keyword id="63194" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="yoy" source="Orion">YoY</keyword> terms), healthy growth mix (more capex driven), and fiscal and monetary policy on a consolidating path create the basis for the trend in macro stability indicators to improve," the report said. "We expect CPI inflation to average 5.5 per cent (6.7 per cent in F23 estimates) and the current account deficit to track at 2.5 per cent of GDP in F24 (2.9 per cent in F23 estimates)." As regards to the repo rates, Morgan Stanley expects the <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> to hike in April and peg the terminal repo rate at 6.75 per cent. A shallow rate cut cycle (of cumulative 50 basis points) from 1Q24 as visibility on durable moderation in inflation improves, the report said. "We see risks to macro stability as tilted to the upside driven by changes in global commodity prices, domestic or global exogenous weather events and the pace of the growth recovery," the report notes. Sticky trends in inflation and elevated trade deficit have raised some concerns on India's macro stability outlook, Morgan Stanley said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/tractors-commercial-vehicles-drive-auto-sales-in-february-but-el-nio-threat-looms-large/articleshow/98386451.cms">Tractors &amp; commercial vehicles drive auto sales in February but El Niño threat looms large</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/greed-for-wealth-facilitated-corruption-to-develop-like-cancer-sc/articleshow/98386482.cms">Greed for wealth facilitated corruption to develop like cancer: SC</a>

India's macro stability indicators to improve in FY24: Morgan Stanley

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Inflation will see an intense drop, according to Pantheon's chief economist Ian Shepherdson.</li><li>He pointed to easing price pressures, even as wage inflation is slow to return to normal.</li></ul>Prices are set to see an intense drop, and inflation could fall below the Federal Reserve's 2% target by mid-next year, according to Pantheon's chief economist Ian Shepherdson."We are becoming increasingly worried that inflation will fall below the target by the middle of next year," Shepherdson said in a note on Tuesday.He pointed to pandemic-related drivers of inflation, like rents, consumer spending, corporate profits as well as energy and food prices, that are now reversing. Over the last quarter, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/rent-prices-drops-cities-vacancies-housing-apartments-economy-mortgage-inflation-2023-4?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">rents have begun to plunge</a> in key areas of the housing market. Americans are now beginning to <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-american-consumer-spending-stop-fed-interest-rates-analysts-2023-3">pull back on spending</a> as inflation bites into savings, and corporations have faced major earnings pressure amid rising prices and interest rates. And while <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-prices-inflation-soaring-corporate-greed-profits-margins-wages-jobs-2023-4">wages appear to still be on the rise</a>, the slowdown in the other price pressures should bring inflation lower soon, Shepherdson said. "We expect intense downward pressure on inflation from non-labor costs sources," Shepherdson said, adding that wage growth would eventually slow as well. "[The Fed] will be able to respond to the weakness of the economy by cutting rates before long, even if the contemporaneous labor costs data are stronger than they would tolerate in the medium term."Inflation has already been on the downtrend since mid-2022, with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-price-growth-us-cpi-consumer-price-index-report-march-2023-4">the consumer price index inflation up 5%</a> in March, as the Fed hiked interest rates over 1,700% in the past year.Markets are pricing in an 83% chance that the Fed will pause rate hikes at its next policy meeting in June, and a 33% chance the central bank could begin to cut rates in July, per the <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CME FedWatch tool</a>. The Fed dialing back interest rates is expected to be bullish for equities, with Fundstrat's Tom Lee predicting as much as a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-falling-inflation-investing-fed-rates-2023-1">25% rally if the Fed pauses rates later this year</a>.

You Searched For "macroeconomics" and got 6 results

Economic Survey pegs growth at 6.5-7%; solidifying India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals: CBRE

PTI

Affordability levels to buy homes hit in last 2 years; to improve in 2024 on likely repo rate cut: JLL

PTI

India's services sector activity moderates in August; exports expand at record pace

PTI

Markets are headed for a decade of austerity as the 'game of macroeconomic musical chairs' will stop, investment chief says

Filip De Mott

India's macro stability indicators to improve in FY24: Morgan Stanley

IANS

Inflation will see an intense drop and could fall below 2% by mid-2024, Pantheon Macroeconomics says

Jennifer Sor

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