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The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> announced the decision of the newly formed six-member MPC (<keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword>) today, following the conclusion of the three-day meeting, which began on October 7, 2024. Treading along expected lines, RBI rate-setting panel left the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the 10th consecutive time, in its 51st meeting today. The decision was made by a majority, with 5 out of 6 members voting for leaving the rate unchanged. This is the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy review for FY25, and the first since three external members were appointed to the panel earlier this month. The tenure of the previous three members had come to an end on October 4, 2024. While the outgoing members include Ashima Goyal (emeritus professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research), Shashanka Bhide (honorary senior advisor, National Council of Applied Economic Research); and Jayanth R. Varma(professor, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad), the income members are Ram Singh (Director, Delhi School of Economics), Saugata Bhattacharya, an economist; and Nagesh Kumar (Director and chief executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development). <h2>Wait and Watch </h2>RBI also changed its policy stance to neutral, while remaining committed to growth and bringing down inflation to its target of 4%. This means that at present, the bank is not inclined to either increase or decrease the interest rates, but will take a call depending on macroeconomic conditions and prevailing factors. "Taking all these factors into consideration, the real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2%, with Q2 at 7%, Q3 at 7.4% and Q4 at 7.4%", he said. As for inflation, Das highlighted that headline inflation had softened significantly in July and August and even food inflation experienced a certain degree of correction during these two months. Keeping this in mind, CPI inflation for 2024-25 i.e. current year is projected at 4.5%, with Q2 at 4.1%, Q3 at 4.8% and Q4 at 4.2%. CPI for first quarter of next financial year i.e. 2025-26 is estimated at 4.3%. "It's with a lot of effort that inflation horse has been brought to the stable, i.e. closer to the target and within the tolerance span, compared to its place or heightened levels two years ago. We have to be very careful about opening the gate, as the horse may simply hold again. We must keep the horse in tight leash, so that we do not lose control", Das added. Most economists had anticipated a change in the central bank's current policy stance of 'withdrawal of accommodation'. This policy stand indicates that any interest rate cuts are presently off the table. However, given the ongoing geopolitical crisis and Fed's jumbo rate cut by 50-basis points last month, RBI may bring about a cut in interest rates, sooner than later. However, since food inflation remains high at 5.42% as of July 2024, experts had also estimated that now might not have been a good time for RBI to bring down interest rates. Moreover, PMI (purchase managers index) indices, which help in gauging the health of manufacturing and service sectors in the country, presently stand at a multi-month low, and even the core sector output is witnessing a contraction after 42 straight months. As Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research had highlighted, the current circumstances are not really conducive for RBI to opt for any affirmation action towards an easier monetary policy. "While the fear of the inflation “elephant” may have subsided with the CPI headline print well within 4.0% over the last two months and a favorable monsoon, the concerns around the stability of food inflation still linger among policy makers. The RBI may wait till December 2024 or February 2025 to make a rat cut, he continued. <h2>Housing sector rejoices</h2>From the point of view of homebuyers, the relatively affordable home loan interest rate regime will continue at a critical time for the Indian housing market - the festive season - amid rising housing prices and tapered sales. Q3 2024 saw average housing prices rise by a cumulative 23% in the top 7 cities even as average prices in these markets collectively rose to approximately Rs 8,390 per sq. ft. by Q3 2024-end, from Rs 6,800 per sq. ft. in Q3 2023. "The unchanged home loan rates are much-needed demand support in the ongoing festive quarter. We are expecting faster sales momentum in Q4 2024 when compared to the preceding quarter. This year's festive quarter may see similar demand to that seen in this period a year ago, if not higher. Over 1.27 lakh units were sold across the top 7 cities back in Q4 2023. Unchanged interest rates will play and important role in achieving and maintaining this momentum", says Anuj Puri, Chairman - ANAROCK Group

RBIs MPC meet concludes today: Repo rate left unchanged at 6.5%

The <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> presented by <keyword id="20426375" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Finance-Minister-Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman">Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> has projected a <keyword id="19997196" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="growth-rate" source="keywords">growth rate</keyword> of 6.5 per cent and 7 per cent further solidifying <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s strong <keyword id="20018805" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="macroeconomic-fundamentals" source="keywords">macroeconomic fundamentals</keyword>, <keyword id="20060150" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CBRE" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="CBRE" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="CBRE">CBRE</keyword> Chairman and CEO-India, South-East Asia, Middle East and Africa, <keyword id="20177586" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anshuman-Magazine" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anshuman Magazine" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="Anshuman Magazine">Anshuman Magazine</keyword> said on Monday. The country's economic performance in FY'24 surpassed expectations, registering a robust growth rate of 8.2 per cent. "This momentum is noteworthy considering three out of the past four quarters exceeded the 8 per cent growth mark," he said in his reaction to the Economic Survey. <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">Inflation</keyword> is anticipated to moderate around 4.5 per cent and it reflects a 'well-balanced' economic environment, he said. "The survey acknowledges the <keyword id="20152263" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate-sector" source="keywords">real estate sector</keyword>, particularly the residential segment, as a significant driver of <keyword id="20018651" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-investment" source="keywords">private investment</keyword>. The survey emphasizes the importance of continued collaboration between central and state governments, along with the private sector, to sustain this momentum," Magazine said in a statement. India's post-pandemic recovery has been orderly and expansive and it is testament to the underlying resilience of the economy, he said. "Looking ahead to FY'25, several indicators such as robust private consumption, increased bank lending activity and improved corporate capital expenditure indicate towards a good year ahead," he added.

Economic Survey pegs growth at 6.5-7%; solidifying India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals: CBRE

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Recessions are notoriously difficult to predict.</li><li>But unemployment rates and inverted yield curves aren't the only way to watch for a recession.</li></ul>Financial hand-ringing abounds these days as money managers and consumers alike eye <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/are-we-in-a-recession">a potential recession.</a>But recessions are notoriously <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/economy/articles/economic-insights/2019/q1/eiq119-predicting-recessions.pdf">difficult for economists to predict</a>.Official recession indicators are mounting. Two recession indicators — the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-indicator-economy-inverted-yield-curve-campbell-harvey-fed-unemployment-2024-6">inverted yield curve</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sahm-rule-recession-outlook-indicator-triggered-unemployment-rate-jobs-report-2024-8">the SAHM Rule</a> — are flashing red. But earlier this year, financial bigwigs admitted that they got their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-ray-dalio-us-economy-recession-predictions-wrong-wsj-2024-3">previous predictions wrong</a> — for now.But for the less market-inclined money watcher, there are several simpler, stranger signs that could also point to a coming downturn.Business Insider spoke to financial experts about the weird — and often imperfect — recession indicators they keep an eye out for in times of trouble."Few if any of these informal indicators are conclusive on their own, and some may simply signal changes in consumption patterns," said Peter C. Earle, senior economist at the American Institute for Economic Research. "The confluence of many at once, however, can be indicative of a souring macroeconomic trend."<h2 id="388d0245-492c-45e1-a60d-546f9ed4cb93">Lipstick sales</h2><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lipstick-index-explained-how-makeup-sales-could-forecast-recession-2022-8#:~:text=Back%20in%202001%2C%20when%20the,worse%2C%20lipstick%20sales%20got%20better.">The Lipstick Effect</a> is one of the more well-known wacky recession indicators. The rule equates an increase in lipstick sales to a downturn in people's purchasing power, a sign that often points to a recession ahead, Aaliyah Kissick, CEO of Financial Literacy Diaries and a Gen Z money expert, told BI.Lipstick most often stands in as the titular item in the economic theory, but the rule effectively operates as an example of the substitution effect, positing that as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-us-economy-consumer-spending-hard-landing-inflation-slowdown-2024-6">people lose the ability to buy</a> themselves big-ticket luxury items during difficult financial times, they turn toward smaller, more affordable luxury because it represents a "small win," Kissick said.Along with an uptick in lipstick sales, a sales increase in similarly small items like nail polish could also point to financial troubles, Joe Camberato, CEO of NationalBusinessCapital.com, told BI.The theory has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/beauty-shoppers-still-spending-big-as-us-consumers-cut-elsewhere-2023-3">played out</a> several times throughout history, including ahead of the 2008 recession.<h2 id="9b3867ce-4d1e-4e2b-8fdd-cc1f5c08a572">Strippers' tips</h2>Exotic dancers are often among the first group of people to warn of a coming recession, Kissick said, lending credence to another predictive theory: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://theface.com/society/strippers-recession-stripping-adult-industry-porn-politics-economy">The Stripper Index.</a>Kissick pointed to strippers' tips as a microcosm for elastic goods. The elasticity of a product refers to how changing prices may or may not trigger changing demand.Coffee, for example, is an inelastic good. Even as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coffee-prices-increases-inflation-drought-frost-2022-8">prices rise</a>, people continue to buy it because they just aren't willing to go without it. The fact that caffeine is an addictive substance means people won't change their demand for coffee even in tough economic times.But where a typical white-collar worker isn't willing to forgo coffee during a recession, he may be more likely to ditch the after-hours entertainment, or he'll tip his performers less, Kissick said.The theory can more broadly be applied to any service industry that operates with a tipping culture, Earle said."As a lot of people in the food service industry have noticed lately, a decrease in restaurant tipping suggests that consumers are reducing discretionary spending — whether because of rising unemployment, the debilitating effect of inflation, or both," he added.<div type="image" title="A stripper pole with a crumpled-up dollar bill as a tip." height="1272" width="2357" msid="112994375" hostid="261" sizebytes="67034"></div><h2 id="04bc0b6c-49ff-4d94-9497-8916eef21a65">Dating app usage</h2>When people's finances are flourishing, they often engage in romance via in-person activities, going out for dinner and drinks with potential partners who they've met out and about while spending their money, Kissick said.But when a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2008/12/recession-leads-to-surge-in-online-dating">recession looms</a>, dating apps may see a surplus of users and an uptick in activity as people increasingly rely on the internet to meet new people."<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/restaurants-america-eating-out-crisis-your-fault-labor-shortage-tipping-2024-2">Dining out</a> is another elastic good and one of the first things to go," Kissick said. "When we're out in public less often, we're less likely to meet our soulmate, so we turn to dating apps."The New York Times <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/fashion/12dating.html">reported</a> in 2009 that online matchmakers were seeing a surge in interest even amid the drudge of the 2008 financial crisis.Online dating is an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rising-cost-dating-millennials-gen-z-soaring-cost-love-apps-2024-8">inexpensive way to meet people</a>, and unemployed people tend to have more time on their hands, the outlet reported at the time.<h2 id="9c0df9d3-5935-4296-a21f-20e306151c64">Business disputes</h2>Trouble in middle-market paradise may also be a recession indicator, said Michael Platner, a corporate finance attorney and strategist at Lewis Brisbois.Platner pointed to an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-corporate-bankruptcies-fed-rate-cuts-consumer-retail-spending-fisker-2024-7">uptick in private company insolvencies</a>, partner fights, and business disputes as common recession harbingers. Difficult financial times often require business owners to take decisive action, which can reveal a partner or executive who isn't able to handle the new pressures, extra hours, or less cash, he said."In hard times, it's not uncommon for simmering partner issues to come to the top and for one partner to blame the other for not pulling their weight," he told BI.Law firms are perhaps especially primed to look for business disputes. The International Bar Association <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ibanet.org/preparing-for-a-global-economic-downturn-the-outlook-for-in-house-counsel">wrote</a> last year that "issues can arise or intensify in regard" to a company's workforce during difficult economic times.Corporate bankruptcies, meanwhile, jumped by 30% from 2022 to 2023, Reuters <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/us-business-bankruptcies-rose-30-court-stats-show-2023-10-26/">reported</a> last year.<h2 id="f18372df-c244-403e-a2c7-fcc77dac04ee">Men's underwear</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mens-underwear-index-economy-indicator-2014-9">The Men's Underwear Index</a> posits that a decline in men's underwear sales indicates budget-tightening on non-visible essentials, potentially pointing to a recession, Earle told BI.Made famous by former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan, the theory suggests men stop buying new underwear during difficult financial times because it's a garment most people won't actually see on a day-to-day basis.The underwear indicator is far from foolproof but has proven true in some past recessions. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-signs-unusual-clues-lipstick-underwear-index-2023-4">Men's underwear sales fell</a> in 2008 and 2009, Business Insider previously reported, as well as during the COVID-19 pandemic.<div type="image" title="Underwear for sale are pictured at an Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co store in Pasadena, California March 3, 2015. Abercrombie &amp; Fitch is slated to release its fourth-quarter fiscal 2014 results on Wednesday. REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni " height="533" width="800" msid="112994384" hostid="261" sizebytes="24744"></div><h2 id="853b973d-e067-4035-83bf-381053f561c3">Pawn shop boom</h2>An increase in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/personal-loans/what-is-a-pawn-shop-loan">pawn shop activity </a>can suggest financial strain, as the stores offer desperate people a chance to make some quick cash, Earle said.Inventory at pawn shops typically balloons during difficult times while sales dip. USA Today <a target="_blank" href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/03/24/pawnshops-tell-different-economic-story-than-biden/72881561007/">reported</a> in March that pawn shops were witnessing a "glut" of inventory, indicating people don't have much cash on hand.Similarly, rising sales at dollar stores or increased activity at secondhand stores are also signs that consumers are cutting back, Earle said.Back in 1990, the Los Angeles Times <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-12-25-me-7046-story.html">reported</a> that pawnbrokers are traditionally a trustworthy recession predictor. During some historical recessions and depressions, lines have formed outside pawn shops as people seek out loans.

Lipstick sales and strippers' tips: 6 weird indicators a recession could be coming  

<keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>'s <keyword id="493702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="macroeconomic" source="Orion">macroeconomic</keyword> stability indicators will gradually improve in FY24 owing to a combination of factors, <keyword id="48670" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="morgan-stanley" source="Orion">Morgan Stanley</keyword> said in a report. According to Morgan Stanley, the macro stability indicators will gradually improve in F24 from somewhat elevated levels inAF23. "A combination of easing in global commodity prices (<keyword id="63194" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="yoy" source="Orion">YoY</keyword> terms), healthy growth mix (more capex driven), and fiscal and monetary policy on a consolidating path create the basis for the trend in macro stability indicators to improve," the report said. "We expect CPI inflation to average 5.5 per cent (6.7 per cent in F23 estimates) and the current account deficit to track at 2.5 per cent of GDP in F24 (2.9 per cent in F23 estimates)." As regards to the repo rates, Morgan Stanley expects the <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> to hike in April and peg the terminal repo rate at 6.75 per cent. A shallow rate cut cycle (of cumulative 50 basis points) from 1Q24 as visibility on durable moderation in inflation improves, the report said. "We see risks to macro stability as tilted to the upside driven by changes in global commodity prices, domestic or global exogenous weather events and the pace of the growth recovery," the report notes. Sticky trends in inflation and elevated trade deficit have raised some concerns on India's macro stability outlook, Morgan Stanley said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/tractors-commercial-vehicles-drive-auto-sales-in-february-but-el-nio-threat-looms-large/articleshow/98386451.cms">Tractors &amp; commercial vehicles drive auto sales in February but El Niño threat looms large</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/greed-for-wealth-facilitated-corruption-to-develop-like-cancer-sc/articleshow/98386482.cms">Greed for wealth facilitated corruption to develop like cancer: SC</a>

India's macro stability indicators to improve in FY24: Morgan Stanley

New Delhi, India's services sector activity eased in August but growth rates for new orders remain elevated, as services firms indicated the sharpest upturn in new export business which acted as a catalyst for firms to expand their workforces as well as output, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. Despite falling from 62.3 in July to 60.1 in August, the seasonally adjusted S&amp;P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index indicated one of the strongest increases in output seen since mid-2010. For the 25th straight month, the headline figure was above the neutral 50 threshold. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction. "Indian services companies achieved a remarkable milestone in August, as they welcomed a series record surge in new export business. Several regions contributed to the upturn, including Asia Pacific, Europe, North America and the Middle East," <keyword id="2835710" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="pollyanna-de-lima" source="Orion">Pollyanna De Lima</keyword>, Economics Associate Director at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said. Lima further noted that this spike in international demand supported one of the best sales performances recorded over the past 13 years, and acted as a catalyst for firms to expand their workforces as well as output. "Demand strength also fostered a heightened sense of optimism regarding the outlook, boding well for economic growth prospects," Lima said. On August 10, the <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) left its key interest rates unchanged for a third straight meeting but signalled tighter policy if food prices drive inflation higher. The next meeting of the <keyword id="3446352" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rbi-monetary-policy-committee" source="Orion">RBI Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) is scheduled for October 4-6. On the prices front, buoyant demand for services meanwhile aided a further upward revision to selling prices. The rate of charge inflation quickened to the joint-fastest in over six years, while input costs rose to a lesser extent. "... Favourable demand trends also led to the joint-fastest increase in prices charged for Indian services in over six years, which may prompt attention from policymakers and potentially delay cuts to the benchmark repo rate," Lima added. On the jobs front, hiring activity across India's service economy continued to expand. The rate of job creation was moderate, but the strongest seen since last November. Going ahead, monitored companies firmly believed that output would remain on an upward growth path over the course of the coming 12 months. Advertising, demand strength, plans to price competitively and a healthy number of client enquiries all boosted optimism in August. Meanwhile, there was a mild slowdown in the growth of private sector activity across India during August. The S&amp;P Global India Composite PMI Output Index -- which measures combined services and manufacturing output -- fell from 61.9 in July to 60.9 in August. Despite the fall, the S&amp;P Global India Composite PMI Output Index was indicative of a sharp rate of expansion that was among the strongest in over 12 years, the survey said. The S&amp;P Global India Services PMI is compiled by S&amp;P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to a panel of around 400 service sector companies. The panel is stratified by detailed sector and company workforce size, based on contributions to GDP. Data collection began in December 2005.

India's services sector activity moderates in August; exports expand at record pace

<ul><li>A closely watched recession indicator has stopped flashing red after a 23-month decline. </li><li>The Leading Economic Index gained 0.1% month-over-month in February.</li><li>"The end of extended Conference Board LEI declines has generally been a positive signal for stocks," Carson Group said. </li></ul>A closely watched recession indicator has stopped flashing red after a 23-month decline, and that's great news for stocks, according to <a href="https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/leading-indicators-catch-up-with-the-economy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Carson Group strategist Barry Gilbert.</a>The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index gained 0.1% month-over-month in February, ending a near two-year decline.Sustained declines in the Leading Economic Index <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-indicator-failed-economy-lei-cried-wolf-major-flaw-ndr-2024-1">have historically foreshadowed an imminent recession,</a> but this time around it looks like a recession will have been avoided as the Federal Reserve attempts to engineer a soft landing. It's important to note that the Conference Board LEI is heavily weighted toward the goods economy and less so the service economy.That's a problem <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-indicator-failed-economy-lei-cried-wolf-major-flaw-ndr-2024-1">when you consider that the makeup of today's economy is roughly 85% services,</a> which is why the LEI has been trending negative for so long, as much of the strength in economic growth over the past year has been driven by services.According to Carson Group, its internal Leading Economic Index, which puts a greater emphasis on the services economy, suggests trend growth for the economy through the rest of the year. That's in line with the Fed's GDPNow forecast of 2.1% growth in the first quarter.From a stock market perspective, Carson Group crunched the numbers and found that the end of a decline in the LEI is typically followed by higher stock prices."The end of extended Conference Board LEI declines has generally been a positive signal for stocks," Gilbert said. Gilbert pointed to previous LEI declines, including a 22-month decline in 1975 and a 24-month decline in 2009, that were followed by double-digit returns for the stock market over the next year."It is noteworthy that the end of these two longer streaks corresponded to the end of some longer recessions. That gives us added confidence that we are past near-term recessionary risk," Gilbert said.The average one-year return for the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> after the LEI turned positive following a negative streak is 15.6% with a win ratio of 85.7%. The median one-year return is even higher, at 19.2%. "The bottom line is that no matter which indicators you pay attention to, economic headwinds are slowly being taken out of play. Despite a strong first quarter so far for equities and the likelihood of bumps along the way, the outlook for stocks over the rest of the year still looks solid, whether looking at the macroeconomic backdrop or market history," Gilbert concluded.

A recession indicator flashing red for 23 straight months just reversed &mdash; and that's great news for stocks

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="851219" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="The-Conference-Board">The Conference Board</keyword>'s <keyword id="851221" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Consumer-Confidence-Index">Consumer Confidence Index</keyword> surged to 101.8 in August from 86.3 as Americans turned more hopeful toward the US economic recovery.</li><li>The increase is the biggest one-month jump in 17 years and follows back-to-back declines through the summer.</li><li>The index of present situations jumped to 98.5 from 85.8. The non-profit's Expectations Index — which tracks consumers' short-term outlook for the labor market, income, and business activity — rose to 104 from 86.6.</li><li>Still, the main gauge remains well below its pre-pandemic high. The lack of near-term stimulus could drag on Americans' cashflow and drive a decline in confidence as early as October, <keyword id="203237" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Ian-Shepherdson">Ian Shepherdson</keyword>, chief economist at <keyword id="2183659" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Pantheon-Macroeconomics">Pantheon Macroeconomics</keyword>, said in a note.</li></ul><keyword id="92883" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="consumer-confidence">Consumer confidence</keyword> spiked higher through August as Americans' expectations for economic recovery significantly improved.The <keyword id="159162" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Conference-Board">Conference Board</keyword>'s Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 101.8 from 86.3, marking the biggest one-month jump in 17 years. Economists expected the gauge to only modestly increase to 90 last month. The increase also follows back-to-back monthly declines linked to the summer's jump in COVID cases."A more favorable view of current business and labor market conditions, coupled with renewed optimism about the short-term outlook, helped spur this month's rebound in confidence," Lynn Franco, senior director of <keyword id="35023" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="economic-indicators">economic indicators</keyword> at The Conference Board, said in a statement.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-4-dividend-stocks-to-buy-thornburg-ceo-brady-2020-9">The CEO of a $41 billion money manager says there will be 'bountiful buying opportunities' with higher volatility heading into year-end — and shares 4 high-dividend-paying stocks to play this market</a>August's climb places the index just below its May level. To be sure, the index remains well below its pre-pandemic high of roughly 110.The Conference Board's index of present situations jumped to 98.5 from 85.8 last month. The non-profit's Expectations Index — which tracks consumers' short-term outlook for the labor market, income, and business activity — rose to 104 from 86.6.The sharp increases are likely tied to the stock market's surge to record highs through August, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note. The tumbling unemployment rate also lifted sentiments, he added, but those drivers faded into the fall and will likely prevent the rally from lasting."Given the performance of stocks in recent weeks, and the loss of momentum apparent in the near-real-time labor market data, we expect confidence to dip in October," Shepherdson said.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/evercore-3-reasons-a-volatile-stock-market-presents-opportunities-2020-9">4 reasons why the stock market will be volatile throughout October. And 3 reasons why this presents opportunities, Evercore says</a>The lack of a near-term stimulus deal will also weigh on optimism heading into election season, the economist added. Cashflow and the pace of economic reopening are key drivers to sentiment gauges, and both have slowed as stimulus programs expire.Some lawmakers are holding out hope for a last-minute deal. House Democrats revealed a $2.2 trillion spending proposal Monday afternoon that includes another round of relief payments, expanded unemployment benefits, and assistance for airlines. Though the measure still comes in above Republicans' spending target, it marks a step closer to compromise.Separately, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke over the phone regarding new relief funds on Tuesday. The two indicated their conversations will continue throughout the week.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picks-to-buy-best-global-industrial-software-companies-bofa-2020-9">BANK OF AMERICA: Buy these 11 stocks to profit as e-commerce and robotics revolutionize their businesses and keep them growing faster than peers</a>

US consumer confidence soars the most in 17 years as recovery optimism rebounds

Mumbai, Equity <keyword id="10180550" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="benchmarks-sensex">benchmarks Sensex</keyword> and Nifty raced to new peaks on Wednesday as participants took note of continuously improving <keyword id="1413216" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="macroeconomic-indicators">macroeconomic indicators</keyword> and positive trends in global markets. The BSE Sensex settled 403.29 points or 0.87% higher at 46,666.46, while the <keyword id="372424" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSE-Nifty">NSE Nifty</keyword> climbed 114.85 points or 0.85% to 13,682.70 -- record closing for both the benchmarks. Both the indices also marked their all-time intra-day highs of 46,704.97 and 13,692.35, respectively. In the Sensex pack, HDFC, ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Titan, Asian Paints, Mahindra and Mahindra and TCS were the prominent gainers. On the other hand, ICICI Bank, <keyword id="46717" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="IndusInd-Bank">IndusInd Bank</keyword>, NTPC, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra and SBI were among the major laggards. Asian bourses closed broadly higher amid hopes that COVID-19 vaccines and <keyword id="114291" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-stimulus">economic stimulus</keyword> by governments around the world will revive economic growth. Market experts said Indian equities continued to trade at record high levels, gaining confidence from improving domestic macroeconomic indicators and positive global market outlook. SBI in a research report said India's GDP growth is expected at (-) 7.4% in FY21 on better-than-projected recovery, upgrading its earlier forecast of (-) 10.9%. S&amp;P Global Ratings on Tuesday raised India's growth projection for the current fiscal to (-) 7.7% from (-) 9% estimated earlier on rising demand and falling COVID-19 infection rates. On the forex market front, the Indian rupee settled 5 paise higher at 73.58 against the US dollar. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.47% to USD 50.93 per barrel. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/top-stocks-to-watch-idbi-bank-pnb-bank-axis-bank-mm-embassy-reit-pvr-and-others/articleshow/79750662.cms">Top stocks to watch — IDBI Bank, PNB Bank, Axis Bank, M&amp;M, Embassy REIT, PVR, and others</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/defense/news/india-inaugurates-new-railway-line-with-bangladesh-to-save-its-chickens-neck-from-china-on-vijay-diwas/articleshow/79750869.cms">After 55 years, India will inaugurate a new railway line with Bangladesh to save its ‘Chicken’s Neck’ from China</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/gold-loan-providers-in-india-face-a-rise-in-robberies-as-gold-prices-rise/articleshow/79752387.cms">Gold loan providers in India face a rise in robberies as gold prices rise</a>

Bulls incharge on Dalal Street: Sensex ends above 46,600 for first time, Nifty inches closer to 13,700

<ul><li>Two bullish indicators just flashed, suggesting a continued rally in the stock market, according to the Carson Group's Ryan Detrick.</li><li>Detrick highlighted better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and a rising 200-day moving average.</li><li>"The vast majority of what we see continues to look quite positive and we expect more solid gains from stocks the rest of this year."</li></ul>The stock market just flashed two bullish indicators that suggest the stock market could continue to rise in the second half of the year, according to <a href="https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/two-more-bullish-pieces-of-evidence/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a recent note</a> from the Carson Group's chief market strategist Ryan Detrick.Detrick, who has been consistently bullish this year as the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> has rallied nearly 10%, remains steadfast in his view that the economy will avoid a recession and continue to surprise to the upside, in tandem with the stock market.His conviction was bolstered recently after first-quarter corporate earnings came in better than analyst estimates, and as the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-sp500-bottom-200-dma-performance-technical-analysis-2023-5">S&amp;P 500's 200-day moving average began to move higher.</a>Here's what Detrick is watching.<h3>1. Corporate Earnings</h3>With 95% of S&amp;P 500 companies having already reported their first-quarter results, investors should be pleased.Of the companies that have reported, 78% beat expectations. And while year-over-year profits are set to decline 2.2%, that's much better than the 6.6% decline that analysts expected less than two months ago.Meanwhile, the average company topped profit estimates by a whopping 6.5% and small-cap stocks beat their expectations by an even wider margin, according to Detrick."MSCI US trailing 12-month earnings have officially bottomed and are now heading higher," he said, citing research from Ned Davis Research. "This is a very strong signal that all the worries about the impending recession have been greatly exaggerated and corporate America likely sees better times coming."<h3>2. The 200-day Moving Average</h3>From a technical perspective, Detrick highlighted that the S&amp;P 500's 200-day moving average is beginning to trend higher after moving lower since April 2022. The 200-day moving average is a long-term trend line that is calculated by averaging the closing price of the S&amp;P 500 over its past 200 trading days. "Right now, it's rebounding off a bottom and that is another feather in the cap for bulls," he said, adding that the 200-day moving average has a knack for catching significant trends.For example, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-sp500-bottom-200-dma-performance-technical-analysis-2023-5">prior instances when the S&amp;P 500's 200-day moving average turned higher</a> after moving lower for an extended period of time include July 2016, August 2009, June 2003, and March 1991 — all times when it proved fruitful to buy stocks despite the broader macroeconomic risks."The vast majority of what we see continues to look quite positive and we expect more solid gains from stocks the rest of this year, with an economy that will avoid a recession and surprise to the upside," Detrick said.<div type="image" title="S&amp;P 500" height="484" width="846" msid="100456786" hostid="261" sizebytes="24128"></div>

You Searched For "macroeconomic indicators" and got 9 results

RBIs MPC meet concludes today: Repo rate left unchanged at 6.5%

Ira Alok Puranik

Economic Survey pegs growth at 6.5-7%; solidifying India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals: CBRE

PTI

Lipstick sales and strippers' tips: 6 weird indicators a recession could be coming

Erin Snodgrass

India's macro stability indicators to improve in FY24: Morgan Stanley

IANS

India's services sector activity moderates in August; exports expand at record pace

PTI

A recession indicator flashing red for 23 straight months just reversed and that's great news for stocks

Matthew Fox

US consumer confidence soars the most in 17 years as recovery optimism rebounds

Ben Winck

Bulls incharge on Dalal Street: Sensex ends above 46,600 for first time, Nifty inches closer to 13,700

PTI

These 2 bullish indicators just flashed and point to a higher stock market going forward, research firm says

Matthew Fox

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