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<keyword id="24240143" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chennai-International-Airport" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Chennai International Airport" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Chennai International Airport">Chennai International Airport</keyword> has been temporarily shut down till 7 PM on Saturday in view of <keyword id="24172195" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Cyclone-Fengal" source="keywords">cyclone Fengal</keyword> making landfall today evening. As heavy rainfall and strong winds intensified ahead of the cyclone, it is expected to cross between Karaikal and Mahabalipuram coasts, near Puducherry tonight. Multiple airlines companies already issued travel advisories and updates on their flight plans due to the continuing heavy rainfall in Chennai Tamilnadu. Earlier, <keyword id="19900374" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IndiGo-airlines" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="IndiGo airlines" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="IndiGo airlines">IndiGo airlines</keyword> diverted all flights scheduled to come to Chennai. "Due to the impact of CycloneFengal in Chennai, flights operating to the city are being diverted. Our crew and airport teams are dedicated to providing all possible support &amp; assistance during this time. We sincerely appreciate your patience and understanding," the X post by IndiGo said. Meanwhile, security at the Puducherry coast has also increased as Puducherry Senior Superintendent of Police, Kalaivanan visited the beaches and the coastal roads in the region and inspected them for preparedness. The authorities have advised the public to not visit beaches in Puducherry as well as in Tamil Nadu's Chennai, including Marina Beach, Pattinapakkam and Edward Elliot Beach. The tourist spots in Puducherry have been closed as a precautionary measure, owing to the impending cyclone Fengal. <keyword id="24240138" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Puducherry-police" source="keywords">Puducherry Police</keyword> in a post on X advised citizens, "In view of Cyclone Fengal, we urge you to exercise extreme caution and avoid visiting beaches and coastal areas" The SSP said that 300 police personnel have been deployed on various coastal roads and beaches. "For the last four days, we have been deploying police personnel along the beaches and apart from that we are also informing the fishermen and people living in the low-lying areas to be careful. Fishermen are not venturing into the sea. Since last night, we have closed all beaches. We have deployed nearly 300 personnel across all the beaches of Puducherry and we are coordinating with the NDRF also," the SSP said. The coastal areas of Puducherry witnessed rough sea and gusty winds on Saturday morning due to the impact of the cyclone. Puducherry received moderate rain, as per IMD, in the morning today but the rough sea was seen more than usual.

Cyclone Fengal: Chennai airport shut till 7 PM

The <keyword id="19949639" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Rupee" source="keywords">rupee</keyword> recovered from its <keyword id="22025417" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="all-time-low" source="keywords">all-time low</keyword> level and opened 25 paise higher at 83.84 against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="US dollar" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="US dollar">US dollar</keyword> in morning trade on Tuesday, mirroring the rebound in the domestic equity market, even as aggressive dollar bids from foreign banks exerted pressure on the local unit. <keyword id="20024982" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forex-traders" source="keywords">Forex traders</keyword> said risk aversion in the <keyword id="19908188" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-markets" source="keywords">global markets</keyword>, escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and outflows by foreign investors further dented investor sentiments. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.92 and then touched an early high of 83.84, registering a 25 paise gain from its all-time closing low of 84.09 against the American currency. On Monday, the rupee slumped 37 paise to settle at an all-time low of 84.09 against the US dollar. "The rupee is being sold off in good times and bad times indicating the demand for US dollar as foreign portfolio investors exit the Indian equity market on high valuation concerns," said Anil Kumar Bhansali Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, gained 0.16 per cent to 102.85 points. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading at USD 77.15 per barrel in futures trade, on fears of spreading Middle East conflict that could hit supplies outweighing fears of a possible US recession that could hurt demand in the world's biggest oil consumer. Moreover, Israel and US are bracing for a significant escalation after Iran and Hamas pledged to retaliate against Israel for killings last week of a Hamas Leader, traders said. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rebounded 903.63 points, or 1.15 per cent, to 79,663.03 points, while the Nifty increased by 270.50 points, or 1.12 per cent, to 24,326.10 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 10,073.75 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee recovers from all-time low level, opens 25 paise higher at 83.84 against US dollar

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Nassim Taleb warns against drawing wrong conclusions from noisy market headlines.</li><li>He criticizes the US for high debt and low growth, leading a fragile financial system.</li></ul>In life or markets, the first rule of thumb is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-warns-ai-bubble-stock-market-2023-6">avoiding ruin</a>. But that can be hard in a noisy world, according to Nassim Nicholas Taleb.If you read press headlines plagued with risk and uncertainty, and you're not paying close attention to the details, you can end up comparing dissimilar events and drawing the wrong conclusions, he told an audience at The Swedish Residence on Thursday.Taleb's career in trading led him to conclude that assuming today would be like yesterday is nothing more than betting on randomness and winning on luck. On more than one occasion, he witnessed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-bubble-sp500-outlook-valuations-1929-2000-hussman-2024-9">market crashes</a> that followed strong bullish trends, in which many of his fellow traders lost it all, according to the book "Chaos Kings" by Scott Patterson.His trading style didn't follow the crowd. Taleb's early success came from buying cheap options that could have explosive upsides from rare events. His contrarian approach allowed him to rake in gains during the 1987 crash, when he had positions in cheap Eurodollar options that benefited from volatility. When the tides turned, he was flipping $2 to $3 contracts for $300 to $500, Patterson wrote. In 1998, it happened again after Russia defaulted on its debt, causing a stock market meltdown. Taleb made money on put options he bought on Russian banks, the book noted.By 2007, he had enough experience under his belt to publish the book, "The Black Swan," where he popularized the term as a representation of rare, unpredictable events that could have huge impacts, such as 9/11.From that, a way to measure unpredictability was born that included gray swan events: rare but predictable events like the 2008 financial crisis that showed signs of trouble through the housing bubble.Then there are fat-tailed events that, in most instances, have normal outcomes, and you don't expect to have huge impacts on markets. But, in one or a handful of data points, the outcome can be so extreme they skew the model. While Taleb didn't coin it, he helped further popularize it. Here, a pandemic is an example of both a gray and fat-tailed event because their outcomes can be tracked, while some can remain local, like ebola, or spread rapidly, like COVID.<h2 id="a4df31ed-faa5-4086-954f-d3a06f7787af">Betting on unpredictability</h2>We're familiar with the term "don't panic." It's probably advice you received at some point when things were going off the edge. For Taleb, if you're going to panic, do it early.When the coronavirus hit, that's what he did. According to Patterson's book, the alarming rate of contagion, coupled with an interconnected planet where global travel was constant, made him conclude that this could get very big, very fast.Taleb and a team of others published a<a target="_blank" href="https://necsi.edu/systemic-risk-of-pandemic-via-novel-pathogens-coronavirus-a-note"> note on January 26</a> categorizing the outbreak as an extreme fat-tailed event that could have the risk of ruin because of its non-linear spread. It was almost three months before the US declared a national emergency on March 13 and before the stock market crashed on March 20.Universa Investments, a hedge fund where Taleb is a distinguished scientific advisor, posted a<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/black-swan-fund-universa-investments-4000-percent-return-hedging-coronavirus-2020-4-1029076165"> 4,144% return</a> on the crash of 2020. A bystander could easily assume that the fund, which specializes in profiting from market shocks, turned certain positions on in response to the mounting fears. But that was far from the case. Instead, the firm's flagship tail-risk hedging strategy continually purchases daily put options that could rake in gains in the event of a crash.Brandon Yarckin, COO of Universa, told Business Insider that as Taleb drafts his academic work around events that don't directly apply to finance, such as Covid, there are corollaries to that thought process that help the investment firm build portfolios. Understanding the interconnectedness and how systems behave in relation to how markets behave is key to that process, he said. In the example of a pandemic, he noted that there are similarities between how diseases spread and how markets crash.<h2 id="99fc0009-0feb-4026-a474-a6f869703ff3">US deficit and the dollar</h2>During the Thursday evening talk, Taleb addressed the US deficit and mounting debt, both of which swelled after the pandemic.He highlighted the four categories of debt-based countries: those with low growth and high or low debt, and those with high growth and high or low debt. The US is in the category of low growth and high debt. The issue, he said, is that debt isn't made for large mature economies, which is where it's usually found most.This is because the growth trajectory tends to follow the S-curve pattern: slow, then rapid, then leveling off. You don't need to continue growing once you're on top of the curve. However, if a country accumulates high debt, then continued growth is required to absorb it, he noted. The outcome is a fragile leveraged financial system with increased interconnected risk, which is the US' current predicament, he added.Taleb emphasized that government expenditures aren't purely to blame. The US is stuck with accumulating debt-servicing costs, and it's now spending more on interest payments than military spending. This is creating a snowball effect, where it must keep borrowing the difference. At present, Taleb doesn't believe that the ballooning debt could be solved politically or by increased demand for US bonds.Mark Spitznagel, Universa's founder and CIO, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biggest-stock-market-crash-since-1929-coming-mark-spitznagel-interview-2024-3">previously told Business Insider</a> that the mounting credit bubble could lead to a massive stock market crash that could be worse than 1929.As for the US dollar, for the most part, people like to transact with it because it's a stable currency, Taleb said. The real question is whether they use it as a store of value. Here, Taleb believes, is where the problem lies. The big question he asked the audience is, "How safe do you feel putting your money in Western banks?"From his perspective, not very safe. Since 2022, the financial and monetary systems have been used as a foreign policy tool, he said. Bank accounts and assets of Russian subjects have been frozen based on their political ties. Taleb believes that this type of behavior harms the US dollar long-term.

The godfather of black-swan hedging explains why mounting US debt and the weaponization of the dollar are leading risks today  

Singapore Airlines will make an additional investment of Rs 3,194.5 crore in Tata Group-owned Air India post-merger of Vistara in November. The merger, announced on November 29, 2022, and set to be completed on November 11, 2024, will result in Singapore Airlines having a 25.1% stake in the enlarged Air India. Full-service carrier Vistara, which started flying on January 9, 2015, is a joint venture between Tatas and Singapore Airlines, where the latter holds a 49% shareholding. Vistara's last flight will take off tomorrow i.e. November 11, 2024. Singapore Airlines (SIA) Group on Friday said its consideration for the merger comprises the 49% interest in Vistara and Rs 20,585 million (Rs 2,058.5 crore) in cash in exchange for a 25.1% equity interest in the enlarged Air India. Post-merger, SIA expects to recognize a non-cash accounting gain of around 1.1 billion Singapore dollars and also start equity accounting for its share of Air India's financial results. According to a release on Friday, the merger includes an agreement for SIA to contribute its share of any funding previously provided by Tata prior to the completion of the merger, together with relevant funding costs up to Rs 5,020 crore that would allow it to maintain a 25.1% stake in Air India. "SIA's additional capital injection is expected to be Rs 31,945 million (equivalent to SGD 498 million), based on Tata's funding to Air India to date. This will occur after the completion of the merger and within November 2024 through subscription to new Air India shares. "Future capital injections will be considered based on Air India's requirements and available funding options," according to the release issued while announcing the airline's financial performance for the six months ended September 2024. The merger of Vistara with Air India will mark a major consolidation in the fast-growing Indian aviation space. SIA said the merged entity will have a significant presence across all key Indian air travel segments, including domestic, international, full-service, and low-cost operations. "This will strengthen SIA's multi-hub strategy, allowing it to continue participating directly in India's large and fast-growing aviation market," it added. Recently, Air India and SIA agreed to significantly expand their codeshare agreement, adding 11 Indian cities and another 40 international destinations to their network.

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Cyclone Fengal: Chennai airport shut till 7 PM

ANI

Rupee recovers from all-time low level, opens 25 paise higher at 83.84 against US dollar

PTI

The godfather of black-swan hedging explains why mounting US debt and the weaponization of the dollar are leading risks today

Laila Maidan

Singapore Airlines to invest additional Rs 3,195 cr in Air India post-Vistara merger

PTI

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