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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Employee disengagement is a major challenge, costing more than $8 trillion globally.</li><li>Gen Zers, known for quiet quitting, are leading the charge in setting work boundaries.</li></ul>The world's workforce is disengaged, and the "Great Detachment" is looming.According to experts, employees across all industries are increasingly engaging in "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/american-workers-use-productivity-theater-performative-work-to-look-busy-2023-5">productivity theater</a>" and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ceo-viral-trust-in-employees-why-thats-a-good-thing-2024-7">performative busyness</a> to get through their workday.And Gen Zers, as the cohort associated with "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-quiet-quitting-work-ethic-millennials-money-struggles-2023-10">quiet quitting</a>" and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-job-satisfaction-unhappy-work-salary-promotion-loyalty-2024-2">a job being just a job</a>, are leading the charge.They are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-and-older-workers-want-pay-advancement-flexibility-2024-5">on track to outnumber boomers</a> in the workforce this year and are expected to make up 27% of it by 2025.But while it may be easy to blame the youngest generation of workers for the disconnect, it's not the full story.What older generations see as discontent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-lazy-hiring-jobs-careers-hr-training-pandemic-2024-8">and laziness</a> may instead be a result of Zoomers setting boundaries and not being afraid to voice them.<h2 id="c13e9d3a-aa4a-4711-ab5a-ee487163216f">The cost of disengagement</h2>The drop in employee engagement levels across the world is the "biggest challenge" companies are facing, according to Richard Wahlquist, the CEO of the American Staffing Association.It's also expensive. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.gallup.com/workplace/393497/world-trillion-workplace-problem.aspx">Gallup data estimates</a> it could cost more than $8 trillion globally, and employees who are not engaged cost their companies the equivalent of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.gallup.com/workplace/321743/increase-productivity-lowest-possible-cost.aspx">18% of their annual salary.</a>"We've got a vast majority of workers in every single office that are either not engaged or actively disengaged," Wahlquist told Business Insider, citing Gallup data that shows that just roughly three in 10 employees are actively engaged."The others are either kind of neutral, they would leave for another job that pays more," Wahlquist said. "And then there's about 17% who are actively disengaged, they are unhappy. They will say unhappy things about you and your company."<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.gallup.com/workplace/610856/new-challenge-engaging-younger-workers.aspx">According to Gallup data this year</a>, millennials and Gen Zers are seeing the biggest drop in engagement. Millennials have dropped seven points, from 39% to 32% being actively engaged, while actively engaged Gen Zers have dropped from 40% to 35%.The percentage of actively disengaged millennials has risen from 12% to 17%, while for Zoomers, it has increased from 13% to 14%.<h2 id="46d2acc4-6750-4906-bb4f-583af5a17499">A unique moment</h2>Employee detachment is not an entirely new problem and has plagued companies for a long time."Employee engagement has been a topic of conversation for decades now," Leena Rinne, the global head of coaching at Skillsoft, told BI. "But there is something unique about this moment."COVID-19 played a part, with people being physically disconnected from their jobs and having their lives turned upside down."Even as we're coming back to work, some of that connection is being forced, or it's not natural," Rinne said.Rinne added that the younger generation is assumed to be less committed to their roles, but they're also seeing that maybe their company "is a little less committed to them."They saw their parents lose their jobs and their footing during the pandemic, and it <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-reject-corporate-jargon-corporate-accent-2024-7">changed what they value</a>."I don't know how much to invest in the organization when there are moments of fear, disruption, and anxiety," Rinne said. "I think it's a natural human emotion to pull back rather than lean in if I'm not sure."This is particularly relevant in the past year, where <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-are-unbossing-workplaces-and-millennials-are-at-risk-2024-5">middle management positions are being axed</a>, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ceos-explain-the-tech-layoffs-mark-zuckeberg-sundar-pichai-2024-2024-6">tech bubble has burst</a>, and social media has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-posting-layoffs-online-are-lonely-seeking-validation-expert-2024-2">flooded with personal stories of layoffs</a>."We've seen Instagram layoff moments that are horrifying, and people thinking, well, I thought this was my work family, but I was cut off in a moment," Rinne said. "There's a crisis of trust."Overall, though, Rinne believes a lack of engagement is a symptom, not the problem. She hasn't met many people who genuinely have a desire to be a poor employee and want to do a bad job."But we meet the moment, we meet the conditions that we're in," she said. "Gen Z is showing up in a given way because they feel that's how the company's showing up for them."<h2 id="568ff4e0-aad7-449a-8ef9-2f78be1c96ee">Gen Z is voicing boundaries</h2>Khyati Sundaram, the CEO of Applied, told BI she sees the disconnection crisis a little differently.Gen Zers <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-workers-want-flexibility-fair-pay-survey-2024-5">value work-life balance</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-employees-turned-off-by-dishonesty-and-conflicting-messages-2024-7">transparency above all else</a>. They believe mental health days should be offered as a given, and they want equal paternity and maternity leave."All of those things, they were not normal for somebody who worked 30 or 20 years ago," Sundaram said. "That's creating discontent on both sides, between managers and Gen Zs who are now entering the workforce and maybe becoming managers in 10 to 20 years time."There's a difference between underperforming and feeling disengaged and setting boundaries, Sundaram added."Gen Zs are getting stereotyped because they're voicing it," she said. "It's not new. It's the voicing it that's new. And the judgment that comes associated with that."A survey from Applied of 2,001 UK adults, sent over to BI in an email, found that almost half (47%) of Gen Z workers had a career gap of six months or more and were four times more likely to take time out to travel.Zoomers are also known to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-happy-job-hopping-quit-without-backup-oliver-wyman-2023-1">job hop and will quit jobs</a> that they find unenjoyable or unfulfilling with no backup plan.While older generations may see this as youngsters being flaky and unreliable, Gen Zers see their time off and their decisiveness as valuable ways to build skills and understand what they want."I think many employers are lagging behind about things that Gen Zs care about, such as sustainability, diversity, and mental health support," Sundaram said. "I think they're very positive, reasonable things to look for at work because, ultimately, everybody wants a great life."It's hard to make these kinds of changes, but even an acknowledgment of the things Gen Zs value would go a long way, Sundaram said."But that takes a lot of work," she said.<h2 id="90ac7b50-2500-4589-b6bc-96429b9ad7f2">The solution</h2>Part of the solution is for workplaces to start engaging with their employees and making them feel valued, Rinne said.But building a culture of trust where people turn up to work and feel safe doesn't happen by accident."It's not magic," Rinne said. "It has to be very intentional, it has to be desired, and then it has to have specific effort around it. We don't default into a relationship of trust — we have to build that."People, overall, want to feel like their work matters, and "that's not rocket science," Rinne said."People still need that human moment, that human connection," she said. "There has to be intention and thought and budget, candidly, put behind the initiatives that we know will drive better outcomes with people."For example, Skillsoft found that when leaders were provided coaching for all these things, there was a 41% increase in their engagement in their role after six months. Leaders create culture, Rinne said, "so if your leader is more engaged, then how they lead is improved.""If you're looking at culture, results, innovation, creativity, all of those things are better when we invest in our teams a little bit," Rinne said. "In everyone — not just one generation, every single person."

The Great Detachment is looming for employees, experts warn — especially for Gen Z 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Four teens won $50,000 and first place at this year's Earth Prize competition.</li><li>The Earth Prize is the world's largest environmental competition for teens.</li></ul>George Cheng thinks a lot about flooding.In his home state North Carolina, hurricanes and tropical storms cause annual flooding that damages homes, farms, and crop fields. Cheng is also close to people from India whose families were affected by the heavy 2023 floods.In the not-so-distant future, the 18-year-old MIT freshman plans to unveil an app that forecasts local flooding in a new way, better informing those at risk and helping them evacuate in time.The concept earned Cheng, along with a team of three <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/teen-wins-isef-science-fair-grand-prize-discovery-biomedical-devices-2024-5">fellow teens</a>, first place and $50,000 at this year's Earth Prize competition in May. Cheng plans to use his share to help pay for his college degree.<h2 id="274f79bf-64b3-456f-8f01-8c248331ba34">A new way to visualize flood risk</h2><div type="image" title="colorful computer simulation showing peaks and valleys of a 100 square mile region" height="942" width="1136" msid="113135189" hostid="261" sizebytes="70260"></div>The Earth Prize, launched in 2021, is the world's largest environmental competition for teens. Competitors submit physical models and computational projects designed to address issues related to waste, pollution, the environment, and other themes.Cheng and his team decided to focus on the widespread threat to human lives that climate change poses, particularly via flooding.An estimated <a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=577ddf9139da21c51fcdcacc983198ed420ffacdb8519ea1f8436b575f777e7b&amp;postID=66cd0447b6269761a73bcf60&amp;postSlug=teens-win-50000-earth-prize-flood-forecasting-model-2024-8&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41467-022-30727-4">1.8 billion</a> people worldwide are at risk of devastating flooding that can destroy homes and claim lives. As climate change drives up sea levels and increases precipitation, experts project flooding to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-new-york-city-nyc-floods-are-getting-worse-2023-9">worsen</a>.Cheng and his teammates hope their project, called FloodGate, can help people at risk.The problem with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-climate-change-crisis-extreme-weather-is-costing-you-2023-9">current forecasts</a> is that it can be hard to interpret how a storm or flash flood will affect you directly. For example, if the weather forecast says it's going to rain five inches in your town, it's hard to know what kind of effect that will have on your home and whether you should evacuate.That's what FloodGate eventually aims to answer.For The Earth Prize, the team designed a computer model to construct a 3D map of a 100-square-mile region.Then, they combined that model with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-deepmind-ai-weather-forecast-accuracy-2023-11">AI and real-time weather forecasts</a> to predict detailed flood risks for that region.The model is still in its early stage, said Yung Yoong Sze, an Earth Prize mentor who consulted with the FloodGate team.Ultimately, the team wants to use their model to translate weather forecasts into pictures. So when you open the app, you can see the physical consequences of five inches of rain in your area because it'll show you how much of your home or crop field could be underwater."Our model kind of puts the numbers with the images. I think it's more effective than just the numbers itself," Cheng said.<h2 id="e832d718-fb29-42df-96bc-d77fa3284ddc">What sets FloodGate apart</h2><div type="image" title="hundreds of tiny blue dots connected by thin lines, the computer image simulated flooding tributary connectivity to help predict flood risk" height="744" width="1274" msid="113135188" hostid="261" sizebytes="184456"></div>The team's novel flood forecasting system beat 979 other competing projects for first place."What it had is amazing programming, a very useful app, and fantastic broader application that could actually save lives and have a positive impact on the environment," said Jonathan Baillie, another Earth Prize mentor who worked with the FloodGate team.The Earth Prize is not a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/teens-win-fifty-thousand-for-ultrasound-microplastic-filtration-device-2024-5">typical science fair competition</a> where competitors either work alone or with teammates. The Earth Foundation, which sponsors The Earth Prize and is now accepting applications for 2025, provides each competing team with resources and expert mentors to help them develop and advance their projects before the final presentation."I could help them position it and talk about why what they had done was so amazing and how it could be more broadly applied globally," said Baillie, who is president of the nonprofit conservation organization Natural State.FloodGate's model only works for US locations, but the team hopes to eventually expand.That will require broader data sets that can incorporate information from places outside the US, including Africa and Southeast Asia, Yoong Sze said.Showing flood risk is only part of the final vision. Ultimately, Cheng and the team want their product to have a built-in warning system, "kind of like a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/things-you-should-never-do-during-a-hurricane-2019-7">hurricane evacuation system</a>," Cheng said.Cheng said the team hopes to unveil the app by the end of 2025.

Teens won $50,000 for inventing a flood forecasting technology they hope can help millions of people at risk worldwide

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Up to 3.6 billion people are highly vulnerable to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/climate-disaster-death-toll-688-people-cost-145-billion-2021-2022-1">climate change</a>, a new UN report says.</li><li>Warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius or more could drastically alter our physical health, the places we live, and the survival of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-animals-added-to-extinction-list-birds-fish-mollusks-2021-10">animal species</a>.</li></ul>Rising global temperatures bring dire threats, such as <keyword id="48088" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="floods" source="Orion">floods</keyword>, heat-related injuries, water scarcity, and hunger, making up to 3.6 billion people — nearly half of the world's population — highly vulnerable to <keyword id="11896311" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="climate-change" source="Orion">climate change</keyword>.That's according to a major report, released Monday, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — a UN body that recruits hundreds of scientists from across the globe to summarize years of research on the climate crisis. "We are in an emergency headed for a disaster," Inger Andersen, executive director of the <keyword id="11896449" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="united-nations" source="Orion">United Nations</keyword> Environment Program, said at <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpK7eeYRhjQ">a Monday press conference</a>."Climate change isn't lurking around the corner ready to pounce," she said, adding, "It's already upon us, raining down blows on billions of people."Human-caused emissions have already led the planet to warm by 1.1 degrees Celsius in the last 170 years. The report drills down on how 1.5 degrees of warming or more could drastically alter our physical health, food and water supply, the availability of safe places to live, and the survival of animal species.<div type="image" title="heat wave" height="2471" width="3600" msid="89908871" hostid="261"></div><h2>Here are some of the report's main takeaways:</h2><ul><li>By 2050, more than 1 billion people in low-lying coastal cities and small islands will be at risk of climate hazards from sea-level rise.</li><li>Under 1.5 degrees of <keyword id="6366055" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="global-warming" source="Orion">global warming</keyword>, children ages 10 and younger as of 2020 could experience a nearly four-fold increase in extreme weather events by 2100. </li><li>The percentage of people exposed to deadly heat stress (i.e., heat stroke) could increase from 30% today to 76% by the end of the century.</li><li>Under 2 degrees of global warming, between 800 million and 3 billion people could experience chronic water scarcity due to droughts. That figure could climb to 4 billion people if global temperatures rise 4 degrees.</li><li>Eight million to 80 million people will suffer from hunger by 2050. Under a high-warming scenario, up to 183 million additional people in low-income countries could become undernourished due to climate change.</li><li>Under 2 degrees of warming, up to 18% of all land species will be at high risk of going extinct by 2100. Under 4 degrees of warming, half of our plant and animal species could be threatened.</li></ul>Monday's release is the second portion of the <keyword id="6941656" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ipcc" source="Orion">IPCC</keyword>'s sixth assessment. The first portion, released last year, focused on physical changes to the planet. The new report assesses how those changes will impact humans and ecosystems.While some climate outcomes are preventable, others set in stone. Last year's portion of the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/still-time-to-address-climate-change-ipcc-scientists-report-2021-8">IPCC report</a> found that glaciers will continue melting and seas will continue to rise for hundreds or thousands of years."The world we live in today is not going to be the world we live in five years, 10 years, or even 20 years from now," Debra Roberts, the co-chair of the IPCC report, said at the press conference. "We have to be much more vigilant about our actions."<h2>How can the world adapt?</h2><div type="image" title="farmer walks through field of dried brown soybean plants" height="1667" width="2500" msid="89908872" hostid="261"></div>Governments and industries have taken some measures to adapt to their new climates and prepare for impacts to come. The agricultural sector, for example, is broadly improving irrigation practices to prepare for water scarcity across the globe. And in some regions like West Africa, farmers are planting more drought-tolerant crops.But the IPCC report concludes that these adaptations are not enough to protect ecosystems and humans from the onslaught of extreme weather, rising oceans, and food and water shortages.The report recommends restoring wetlands along flood plains to absorb floodwaters, and planting trees along rivers to create shade and prevent them from drying up. Farmers may also consider diversifying their crops and livestock so they aren't dependent on a single food source. Adding green space to rooftops and walls in cities can help cool temperatures and reduce stormwater runoff. Parks and ponds can help mitigate <keyword id="12137269" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="extreme-heat" source="Orion">extreme heat</keyword> in urban areas. And a diverse array of renewable-energy sources, like wind, solar, and hydroelectric power, can support rural populations in the face of extreme weather."The tricky thing is that there is no silver bullet. There is no one action that's going to solve everything," David Dodman, a lead author of the report and director of human settlements at the International Institute for Environment and Development, told Insider.<div type="image" title="seven adults wade through tropical storm harvey floodwaters carrying children and bags" height="1578" width="2400" msid="89908873" hostid="261"></div>Since every half-degree of global temperature rise carries major consequences, governments and industries can significantly reduce future human suffering and ecosystem collapse by cutting their greenhouse-gas emissions now.But that also means there's little time to waste."The world is currently underprepared for the coming climate change impacts, particularly beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius," the IPCC authors wrote, adding, "At higher levels of warming, the effectiveness of most land- and water-based adaptation options starts declining, and the extent of residual risks increases, as do the chances of future unintended consequences."<h2>Rising temperatures could displace millions of people</h2><div type="image" title="woman in headscarf squats to collect grain" height="1875" width="2500" msid="89908874" hostid="261"></div>If global temperatures exceed 2 degrees of warming, low-lying coastal cities and certain mountain areas or polar regions may have difficulty supporting human life.Changes in temperature, sea level, and food or water supply are already forcing people to relocate on every continent. For example, more people move from Mexico's rural areas into cities during droughts. Some communities in Alaska are making relocation plans as flooding encroaches on their homes. Droughts are also driving migration in sub-Saharan Africa, parts of South Asia, and South America, according to the report. The IPCC authors expect more Arctic communities, particularly indigenous peoples, to migrate as ice melt interferes with their ability to live and hunt.<div type="image" title="nenets indigenous woman in winter coat stands with reindeer herd in russian tundra" height="1681" width="2241" msid="89908875" hostid="261"></div>The report also predicts that hundreds of millions of people will be at risk of climate-related displacement by the second half of the 21st century. Eventually, people may pay a premium to live in climate-safe locations."There's concern over climate gentrification, where safer locations that formerly were home to lower-income groups in cities become more desirable, because of their perceived safety from climate risks and therefore the regional inhabitants begin to be priced out," Dodman said, adding, "I think that's a legitimate concern for the future."

Unlivable cities, refugees, extinct animals: UN climate report warns of drastic changes in coming decades

Almost as soon as home prices began their unprecedented climb in 2020, doomsayers began warning of a looming crisis. The housing market, they claimed, was a bubble destined to burst.A litany of supposed catalysts was going to send prices into a tailspin: the “<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airbnbust-airbnb-short-term-vacation-rentals-investors-real-estate-reckoning-2023-3">Airbnbust</a>,” the sudden surge in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/will-mortgage-rates-go-down-in-2024">mortgage rates</a>, a flood of grifters and hucksters looking to make a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/house-hackers-tiktok-youtube-real-estate-investing-landlord-housing-market-2023-8">quick buck in real estate.</a> Bubble watchers forecast chaos, then sat back and waited. And waited. And waited.I’ve spent the past few years asking experts a simple question: Has the housing market reached bubble territory? The answer remains a resounding no. More than three years after prices started to soar, the only thing that’s gone bust is the gloomy predictions. Despite some cooling in a handful of overheated markets such as Charlotte, North Carolina, and Austin, the median home-sale price increased by a respectable 4% nationwide in 2023, Redfin reported. The price for a typical home has risen by more than 47% since late 2019, according to the S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, a closely watched measure of housing costs. But maybe I’ve been posing the wrong question all along. The B-word implies an impending pop, a point when the combination of greedy speculation, unscrupulous behavior, and soaring prices brings everything crashing down. Barring a large-scale economic disaster, there’s no pop in sight. The staggering jump in home prices is concerning, to be sure. But it’s a function of a severe lack of supply, not a byproduct of investors swarming the market or shady lenders artificially juicing demand. Those looking for parallels to 2008 are grasping at straws — homeowners are in far better financial shape than they were the last time prices cratered, and homebuilders, rather than flooding the market with new properties, aren’t keeping pace with the sheer volume of millennials suddenly consumed by dreams of backyards and picket fences.So if you’ve been waiting — maybe even cheering — for prices to plummet: Don’t hold your breath. <h2>Warning signs</h2>A funny thing about bubbles is they don’t fall neatly into a single definition. Ask a dozen economists to sketch out their criteria, and you’ll probably get 12 different answers. But Mike Simonsen, the president of the housing research firm Altos Research, offered a useful way to think of a bubble’s life cycle in a post on X, formerly Twitter, late last year (which I’ve slightly paraphrased):1. You got rich! Good for you! You did the hard work and got in early.2. Hm. It seems like everyone is getting rich?3. Wait. That asshole?! That guy is not smart, maybe even criminal.4. Pop.For a time, it seemed like the housing market was doing a speedrun through Simonsen’s checklist. There were the runaway prices: Before the pandemic, you could buy a median-price home in Las Vegas for about $281,300, according to Redfin. Good luck finding that kind of deal now — even with a dip from pandemic highs, the cost of a typical house there has swelled to $422,000, an eye-watering 50% increase. Similar stories have played out in Miami (70%), Boise, Idaho (40%), and Dallas (36%). The typical household would have to spend nearly 34% of its income to afford major homeownership expenses such as mortgage payments and property taxes, according to the data firm Attom, the highest percentage since 2007 and well beyond the 28% debt-to-income ratio that’s typically preferred by lenders.Then there were the people getting rich. Speculators were using supercheap loans to buy homes, expecting to profit by selling to an even bigger fool; <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/home-flipping-financial-crisis-housing-price-crash-record-bubble-structural-2022-5">home flippers</a>, aspiring megalandlords, and Airbnb owners <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-investing-advice-tiktok-misleading-financial-advisors-say-2022-6">flaunted their debt-funded miniempires on TikTok</a>; and seemingly everyone was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-agents-realtors-reckoning-housing-market-home-sales-slow-2023-4">signing up to be a real-estate agent</a>. Even usually buttoned-up real-estate professionals were giving off bubble vibes: High-flying mortgage companies threw lavish parties featuring bands such as Imagine Dragons, while Zillow, the ubiquitous home-search site, morphed into <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/timeline-of-how-zillow-stopped-buying-homes-over-two-weeks-2021-11">one of the country’s biggest homebuyers</a> — even though its acquisition math didn’t add up.All the signs seemed to point to a bubble, and there were plenty of people predicting the “pop” was coming: In late 2022, the prominent Wall Street economist Ian Shepherdson forecast <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/housing-market-crash-no-bottom-home-price-outlook-20-percent-2022-10">home prices to fall</a> by as much as 20% the following year. Goldman Sachs expected a more modest, but still significant, decline of up to 10% from the peak. Countless headlines wondered whether home values were set to crash. Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose every word threatens to move markets, said at a Brookings Institution event in 2022 that housing was in a “bubble” during the pandemic, with “prices going up at very unsustainable levels.” The gloomy oracles could even point to an instigator of the coming collapse. The Fed, led by Powell, began raising interest rates in spring 2022 to fight inflation, sending <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/how-does-fed-impact-mortgage-rates">mortgage rates shooting upward</a>. Mortgage rates kept rising through most of 2023, eventually reaching a 20-year high in October of nearly 8%, up from less than 3% during the depths of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Suddenly it wasn’t so cheap to borrow money, making it tougher for reckless investors to enter the market. Speculation is the oxygen for a market-frenzy fire, Rick Palacios Jr., the director of research and managing principal at John Burns Research and Consulting, told me. By hiking rates, the Fed cut off the air supply.But there was no pop, no sudden collapse in home prices. Even with mortgage rates tripling and buyers retreating, values held up. To understand why, you have to look at the fundamentals — the deep-seated reasons all the “Bubble Boys,” doomsayers, and fear-mongering headlines are dead wrong.<h2>Debunking the bubble</h2>Rising prices, no matter how steep, aren’t enough to constitute a bubble. Prices also need to diverge from the fundamentals, or the basic components of supply and demand, that determine how much things cost. If the run-up in prices defies logical explanation or obscures sketchy business practices, watch out. In the years leading up to the global financial crisis, for instance, lenders came up with creative ways to boost demand: They devised predatory mortgages that left borrowers on the hook for impossibly high payments once their teaser rates expired and handed out so-called NINJA loans (no income, no job, and no assets). If you owned a home at that time, you might’ve felt like the only direction its value could go was up.The recent housing-bubble theory was always going to age poorly because of one fact: The pandemic soaring prices were justified. Prices didn’t spiral out of control because we built too many homes or made it too easy to borrow money, like in 2008; they took off because there simply weren’t enough homes for all the creditworthy people who wanted to buy them. For home prices to suddenly crash, there would have to be a pool of desperate sellers looking to offload their homes on the cheap — or, worse, losing them to the foreclosure process. Sure, speculators were loud and proud about their get-rich-quick schemes, but they were a vocal minority. And regular homeowners have “never looked this good” when it comes to their financial and credit health, Logan Mohtashami, the lead analyst at HousingWire and an outspoken critic of bubble alarmists, told me. Less than 4% of outstanding mortgages were delinquent at the end of the third quarter last year, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2023/11/09/mortgage-delinquencies-increase-in-the-third-quarter-of-2023">Mortgage Bankers Association</a>, a near-record low. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the median credit score for people getting a new mortgage was a stellar 770, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (Lenders typically consider a score above 700 to be a marker of future success for a borrower.) Almost 79% of homeowners with a mortgage have locked in a rate below 5%, a <a target="_blank" href="https://investors.redfin.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1030/redfin-report-89-of-people-with-mortgages-have-an#:~:text=Below%205%25%3A%2078.7%25%20have,the%20first%20quarter%20of%202022.">Redfin</a> analysis of data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency found. In the history of rates, that’s a pretty incredible deal. And nearly 40% of homeowners don’t even have to stress about mortgage payments at all, according to census data — they own their homes free and clear. Rather than facing a housing bubble, we’re staring down an entirely different crisis: a supply shortage that has regular buyers fighting just to break into the market. US homebuilders spent the decade after the global financial crisis building at about half the rate of the three decades prior, contributing to the housing crunch. Various estimates have pegged the national housing shortage anywhere between 2 million and 6 million homes. The supply constraint hit right as millennials, the largest living generation in the US, reached <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-house-home-real-estate-mortgage-rates-rent-debt-boomers-2022-9">their prime homebuying years</a>. Add in people’s sudden desire for a bigger house or a place of their own in the heat of the pandemic, and the recent surge in home prices seems less bubbly and more logical. The lack of inventory is the reason prices didn’t suddenly drop, even when mortgage rates shot up. Sure, buyers pulled back. But sellers pulled back even more, leaving the<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-ice-age-higher-home-prices-fewer-sales-inventory-2023-5"> supply-demand imbalance in place</a>. “It’s a savagely unhealthy housing market,” Mohtashami told me. “But it’s also a market that just had too many people chasing too few homes.” <h2>Staying high</h2>It’s tempting to look for echoes of 2008 in today’s housing market. You might even be inclined to cheer on a crash in prices — all the better for everyone who feels locked out of homeownership. But cycles rarely repeat in the same way, Selma Hepp, the chief economist at CoreLogic, told me. Anything that could incite a housing crash probably wouldn’t leave average consumers in a position to suddenly pounce on all that excess inventory.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-outlook-2024-2025-prices-mortgage-rates-home-sales-2023-12">Fannie Mae now projects</a> a modest 3.2% increase in home prices this year and a jump in home sales, along with a decline in mortgage rates. Goldman Sachs predicts a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-outlook-goldman-sachs-predictions-prices-sales-mortgage-rates-2023-12">5% rise in home prices</a>. John Burns Research and Consulting doesn’t publish an exact forecast of home prices, but Palacios told me the firm expected to see a similar increase in the “low single digits.”Perhaps the biggest threat to the housing market at large is a severe economic slowdown, one in which many people lose their jobs and can’t pay their mortgages. It’s notoriously difficult to estimate where the economy is headed, but right now, it’s roaring along, especially <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-us-gdp-inflation-federal-reserve-economic-growth-canada-germany-2024-1">compared with other rich countries</a>. Things aren’t perfect, but the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-confidence-economy-stock-market-gas-prices-eggs-vibes-recession-2024-1">vibes are definitely up</a>. And even if the economy does take a turn, a run-of-the-mill recession probably wouldn’t be enough to topple the housing market. Things would have to get so bad that banks would be forced to walk away from the mortgage-lending space almost entirely, as they did during the foreclosure crisis. If the market is cratering and nobody can get a mortgage to put a floor on prices, “that’s where you get pretty meaningful declines in asset prices,” Palacios said. There’s a silver lining baked into all this: Prices aren’t poised to drop, but the days of skyrocketing valuations appear to be behind us, Mohtashami told me. The housing market is far from balanced, but we’re at least heading in that direction.After the past few years, the lingering fears of a sudden fallout are just a distraction from the bigger issues at hand. The bubble debate was fun; now it’s time to put it to bed. <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/james-rodriguez">James Rodriguez</a> is a senior reporter on Business Insider's Discourse team.

Experts warned of a housing bubble. They were wrong.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns that China's big industrial-production push could destabilize the global economy.</li><li>China's growing clean energy industry has oversupplied markets with cheap solar panels and EVs, she said in prepared comments that will be delivered on Wednesday.</li></ul>China is flooding markets with a lot of cheap green energy products, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is concerned about what it means for the global economy.Yellen is set to speak at the Suniva solar cell factory in Norcross, Georgia on Wednesday, where she is expected to address concerns about China's export strategy."China's overcapacity distorts global prices and production patterns and hurts American firms and workers, as well as firms and workers around the world," a copy of Yellen's remarks <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/business/yellen-china-green-technology.html#:~:text=At%20the%20Suniva%20solar%20cell,by%20The%20New%20York%20Times">reviewed</a> by the New York Times said. "Challenges for individual firms can lead to concentrated supply chains, negatively impacting global economic resilience."After suffering a sweeping property crisis, China is jump-starting its trying to jumpstart its economy with a strong industrial push, incentivizing <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-inflation-outlook-china-economy-crash-stimulus-package-manufacturing-investment-2024-3">investment in the manufacturing sector.</a> And that policy shift includes a focus on clean energy. A recent report from the New York Federal Reserve shows the country is seeing a notable redistribution of credit, with a swift rise in new "green loans."Last year, China's ballooning clean energy industry contributed to <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-economy-slowdown-gdp-real-estate-crash-crisis-clean-energy-2024-1">40% of the country's economic growth.</a>But that comes with consequences. Yellen's remarks warn that this is history repeating itself, like when China overinvested in steel and aluminum, which promoted economic growth in the country but forced the industry in the rest of the world to contract.This trend has already been manifesting in markets like that for solar panels. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/solar-panel-oversupply-prices-iea-renewables-production-green-transitions-inventory-2024-1">Solar panel prices have plunged</a> 50% because of a substantial oversupply. In Europe, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/solar-panel-oversupply-price-crash-europe-production-plant-meyer-burger-2024-1?mrfhud=true">a glut of Chinese imports have pushed</a> one of their largest solar module production sites to close. According to the IEA, China is set to account for 85% of the expansion of solar-module manufacturing capacity by 2028. "It is important to the president and me that American firms and workers can compete on a level playing field," the excerpts reportedly said. "We have raised overcapacity in previous discussions with China, and I plan to make it a key issue in discussions during my next trip there."

China's industrial push risks destabilizing the global economy and watering down green-energy exports, Janet Yellen warns

<ul><li>Saudi Arabia is growing annoyed with Russia as Moscow continues to pump cheap crude oil into the market.</li><li>The increased supply of oil from Russia is helping push oil prices below levels Saudi Arabia needs to fund its megaprojects.</li><li>Saudi Arabia's massive budget needs oil prices to be above $81 per barrel, according to The Wall Street Journal.</li></ul>Russia's pumping of cheap oil into the market is helping put downward pressure on prices for the commodity, and Saudi Arabia isn't happy as oil prices stay below a key break-even level, according to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-russia-ties-under-strain-over-oil-production-cuts-50566e9c" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a report from The Wall Street Journal.</a>The report found that Saudi Arabia's efforts to curtail production and push oil prices higher earlier this year have <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-india-russian-oil-crude-moscow-war-ukraine-volumes-kpler-2023-4">been undermined by Moscow's flood of cheap oil supply,</a> and that the oil-rich nation has expressed its anger at Russia for not following through on its pledge to throttle production, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter."Saudi officials have complained to senior Russian officials and asked them to respect the agreed cuts," the report said.Members of OPEC+ said in early April that they would reduce oil output to help prop up oil prices. But <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-economy-crude-prices-global-brent-texas-energy-ukraine-2023-5">recent data suggests Russia isn't following through on its side of the deal</a> as it seeks to generate revenue to help fund its struggling economy and war effort.Oil prices have been in a solid downtrend since they peaked in March 2022, right after Russia invaded Ukraine, which set off a slew of supply-chain related problems and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-oil-100-barrel-russia-ukraine-talks-dow-2022-3?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">helped push oil prices above $120 per barrel.</a> WTI Crude oil fell 4% on Tuesday to just under $70 per barrel, while Brent Crude oil fell 4% to $74.07 per barrel. Saudi Arabia needs oil above a key break-even level of $81 per barrel to help fund its massive budget of so-called gigaprojects, which include a 110-mile long city in the desert called "The Line" and a resort in the Red Sea that's the size of Belgium. Economic advisors have privately warned Saudi senior policy makers that the kingdom needs higher oil prices for the next five years in order to keep funding billions of dollars of projects, according to the report. That's in part because the projects have failed to attract a lot of investment from abroad. Saudi Arabia will have another chance to convince Russia to implement oil production cuts at an upcoming OPEC+ meeting in early June.

Russia and Saudi Arabia are at odds after a flood of Russian oil supply pushed the commodity's price below a key break-even level needed to fund Saudi projects

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A new <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2e6bhttps://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2e6b">study</a> describes what would happen to global <keyword id="12343639" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="landmarks" source="Orion">landmarks</keyword> under various degrees of sea-level rise.</li><li>In the best-case scenario, sea levels would rise nearly 10 feet in the next 200 to 2,000 years.</li></ul>Several times each year, the tide in Venice, Italy, rises more than 2 feet above the average sea level. Sometimes, this results in mild <keyword id="11919825" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="flooding" source="Orion">flooding</keyword> - inconvenient puddles along the sidewalk. But in certain years, like 2019, floods can swallow the city, damaging infrastructure and costing lives.More cities will need to prepare for that reality as global temperatures climb, and sea levels rise along with them. A recent report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on <keyword id="11896311" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="climate-change" source="Orion">Climate Change</keyword> (IPCC) found that human-caused emissions have already led the planet to warm by 1.1 degrees Celsius in the last 170 years. When global temperatures rise, ice sheets and glaciers melt, sending water into the ocean. Water also naturally expands as it warms, which raises the average sea level.The IPCC report warned that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/climate-change-impacts-to-last-millennia-ipcc-report-2021-8">sea levels will continue to rise for centuries to millennia</a>, no matter what happens next. A <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2e6bhttps://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2e6b">new study</a> from Climate Central, a nonprofit research group, suggests that 4 degrees of warming could lead to nearly 30 feet of sea-level rise over the next 200 to 2,000 years. In that worst-case scenario, according to the researchers, the resulting flooding would force at least 50 major cities to either start emptying out or mount unprecedented defenses against the water. High tides could encroach on land hosting 15% of the global population (about 1 billion people).If the world continues on its current emissions path, global temperatures are projected to climb 3 degrees, which would cause seas to rise nearly 21 feet. In that case, more than 800 million people could be vulnerable to sea-level rise - and many the world's most important landmarks could be submerged in water.Some of that can still be avoided, though. Under the best-case scenario, global temperatures would climb just 1.5 degrees Celsius over the next 200 to 2,000 years, leading to around 10 feet of sea-level rise. But that would require major systemic changes to cut emissions, since the world is currently on track to exceed 1.5 degrees of warming in the 2030s, according to the IPCC. Plus, even under that limited amount of warming, the Climate Central researchers estimate that 510 million people would be vulnerable to sea-level rise.The graphics below show how landmarks such as the Burj Khalifa and Statue of Liberty would look under 3 degrees of warming.<h2>Rising seas pose a particular threat to Asian landmarks</h2>The Climate Central study estimates that Asian countries - particularly China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam - are most vulnerable to sea-level rise.The Temple of Literature in Hanoi, Vietnam, wouldn't experience any flooding under 1.5 degrees of warming, but it would under 3 degrees. Toggle back and forth on the image below to see the difference. Floods would swallow the entrance to the Lungshan Temple in Taipei, Taiwan, if global sea levels rose nearly 21 feet.The streets below the Lujiazui skyscrapers in Shanghai would also be covered in water. The study estimates that 83% of Shanghai's population is vulnerable to flooding under 1.5 degrees of warming, and 94% is vulnerable under 3 degrees.If emissions continue on their current path, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai could wind up wading in water, too.And the Lalbagh Fort in Dhaka, Bangladesh would no longer be accessible on foot. Half of Dhaka's population is vulnerable to flooding under 1.5 degrees of warming. Under 3 degrees of warming, that figures rises to 82%.<h2>Landmarks in the US, Europe, and South America are also vulnerable</h2>In the US, coastal cities like New York are particularly vulnerable to flooding. Based on the level of warming (1.1 degrees Celsius) alone, nearly 4% of New York City's population will experience flooding over the next 200 to 2,000 years . That figure could rise to 19% under 3 degrees of warming, which would leave the base of the Statue of Liberty inundated. On the opposite coast, the Santa Monica Pier in California could disappear underwater if sea levels rose nearly 21 feet globally.The UK's Buckingham Palace could get partially swallowed. The warming we've already seen means around 5% of the UK's population will be vulnerable to flooding over the coming centuries. With 3 degrees of warming, that share would jump to 11%.If emissions continue on their current path, pedestrians would no longer be able to stroll through Aristotelous Square in Thessaloniki, Greece.Nor would they be able to enter the State Hermitage Museum in St. Petersburg, Russia.Under 3 degrees of warming, water could form a moat around the Plaza de España in Seville, Spain. Nearly 4% of Spain's population is vulnerable to flooding under 1.5 degrees of warming, according to the study. That figure rises to 8% under 3 degrees of warming.A few landmarks, like the Plaza de la Catedral in Havana, Cuba, could get swallowed up entirely.But there's still time: The study estimates that cutting emissions in half by 2030 could limit warming to just 1.5 degrees. In that case, the authors write, widespread flooding "may be limited to a handful of locations."

Before-and-after images of landmarks around the world show the devastating sea-level rise that's coming

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Flash flooding swept across the Northeast US this week, causing one death and millions in damage. </li><li>Flash floods are often caused by slow-moving thunderstorms or tropical storms and can happen in an instant.</li></ul>Heavy rainfall inundated the Northeast this week, causing <a href="https://www.insider.com/vermont-flooding-photos-towns-roads-submerged-water-2023-7">deadly flash flooding</a>, submerging buildings, and turning streets into <a href="https://www.insider.com/footage-flash-floods-new-york-streets-waterways-2023-7">murky waterways</a>. On Monday, more than 9 million people stretching from Alaska to Maine were under flood alerts, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/10/weather/northeast-storms-flooding-excessive-rainfall/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to CNN</a>. A 35-year-old woman died in Orange County, New York, after floodwaters swept her away, and a county executive in her town said he expects the damage to be tens of millions of dollars, CNN reported.So what can you do to prepare for a flash flood ahead of time and protect yourself during one?Here's everything you need to know about the types of flood alerts, what causes flash floods, and how to stay safe:<h2>What are flash floods?</h2>Flash floods are different from regular floods because of how quickly they develop, as the name suggests. They can form in a few hours or even minutes, <a href="https://www.weather.gov/pbz/floods" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to the National Weather Service</a>, and are the deadliest weather-related event in the US. Flash floods happen after heavy rainfall hits a region — like during a slow-moving thunderstorm or a tropical storm — and can worsen depending on how long the rainfall lasts, according to the NWS. The topography of an area and the condition of the soil can also affect the formation of flash floods, and even lead to mudslides, the NWS says. <h2>What is a flash flood warning?</h2>There are a few different levels of flood warning that the National Weather Service uses to alert Americans of risk factors — flash flood warnings and flood warnings are at the top of that list. The service issues a Flash Flood Warning or a Flood Warning when flooding is "imminent or already happening," <a href="https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood-watch-warning" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to the NWS website</a>. The agency says people living in flood-prone areas should immediately "take action" and move to higher ground. A Flood Advisory is one level below a warning when the flooding will likely only be a "nuisance," according to the NWS. Under this type of warning, the service says people need to "be aware" and exercise caution. And below that is a Flood Watch, when the weather conditions might result in a flood. The service says under this warning, people should "be prepared" for potential flooding. <h2>What to do before a flash flood</h2>There are also a number of ways you can prepare for a potential flash flood before it happens.First, you should make a plan with your roommates or family members for an emergency situation, including how to escape if necessary. You can find detailed planning resources on the <a href="https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/make-a-plan.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">American Red Cross's website</a>. It's also important to have an emergency go-bag filled with essentials ready in the event of a crisis, like a flash flood. The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/flash-flood-safety-survival.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New York Times suggests</a> filling your bag with items like bottled water, a portable phone charger and cord, nonperishable food, a first-aid kit, and even cash. And above all, make sure you stay up to date on the latest information about where and when a flood is advancing, and how to get away from a dangerous area. <h2>What to do in a flash flood to stay safe</h2>One of the most important things to remember during a flash flood is that no matter how shallow or slow-moving the flooding may appear to be, you don't always know how deep or fast it actually is. The National Weather Service says you should never walk, drive, or swim through swift or flowing water. "If you come upon flood waters, STOP! TURN AROUND AND GO ANOTHER WAY," the NWS's <a href="https://www.weather.gov/pbz/floods" target="_blank" rel="noopener">website says.</a>The service also advises you to get to higher ground if you are able to before flooding reaches your area. And if your car stalls while it's in floodwater, the service says you should "abandon it immediately and seek higher ground," <a href="https://www.weather.gov/mob/Severe_Flood" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to its website.</a>For more information on flood safety and preparedness, review the <a href="https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/types-of-emergencies/flood.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">American Red Cross's guidelines</a>.

What should you do during a flash flood? Never walk or drive through floodwaters

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hurricane Ian is expected to make landfall in Florida Wednesday afternoon.</li><li>Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warned it was 'knocking on the door of a Category 5 storm.'</li></ul>MIAMI, Florida — Florida officials are preparing for Hurricane Ian to grow into a Category 5 storm — the strongest-level hurricane classification, which has made landfall in the US only twice in the last three decades. The hurricane as of 7 a.m. ET was 80 miles south of Charlotte County, an area on Florida's west coast between Venice and Fort Meyers. Ian was moving north at 10 mph and winds reached 155 mph.The wind speeds only need to reach 157 mph or higher to attain Category 5 status. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said during a press conference in Tallahassee that the storm was "knocking on the door of a Category 5 storm" and that it "could make landfall as a Category 5." "A storm of this magnitude will produce catastrophic flooding and life-threatening storm surge," he said. Officials expect the hurricane to make landfall Wednesday afternoon and to move across Florida, toward the Orlando metro region, before exiting the East Coast Thursday. "I can tell you it is a Cat 4 hurricane, nearly a Cat 5," Kevin Guthrie, Florida's emergency management director, said at Tuesday's press conference. "I know all the emergency management directors in southwest Florida very well. Combined they have over 200 years of experience. They are preparing, and they are expecting, a Cat 5. "Several counties encompassing <a href="https://www.insider.com/hurricane-ian-headed-south-of-tampa-bay-major-flooding-expected-2022-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2.5 million people</a> have evacuation orders, but as of Wednesday morning officials said anyone who had not left their homes would need to shelter in place."It's no longer possible to safely evacuate," DeSantis said. "It's time to hunker down and prepare for this storm. This is a powerful storm that should be treated like you would treat [a tornado], if a tornado was approaching your home."Officials urged people to get off the roads, given that roads and bridges throughout the storm-affected areas had been closed. They also raised concerns about people going near power lines, damaged trees, and standing water, once the storm had passed. "I urge Floridians who have made the decision to shelter in place to stay indoors and stay off the roads," Guthrie said. "You do not want to be outdoors or on the roads as a storm of this size is making landfall in your area. It is extremely dangerous."Areas of Florida have already been affected by the storm, including by 40,000 power outages, DeSantis said.Tornado warnings also have been issued across Florida. If people get a tornado warning, they should go to a room in their house without windows, cover themselves with a blanket, and wear a helmet, Guthrie said. Emergency officials have lined up 30,000 linemen, including from out of state, to help power once the storm has passed.

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Experts warned of a housing bubble. They were wrong.

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