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With the West Bengal Assembly bypolls around the corner, a recent analysis by the West Bengal Election Watch and Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) has shed light on the profiles of candidates in the fray. The study reveals that among the 41 candidates contesting in the upcoming bypolls, seven have serious criminal cases pending, while another seven are crorepatis. <h2>Criminal cases: BJP tops the list</h2>The ADR analysis shows that out of the seven candidates with serious criminal cases, four are from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), two from the Trinamool Congress (TMC), and one from Congress. These cases range from non-bailable offences to electoral violations and financial fraud, with maximum punishments extending to five years or more. Offences in this category include serious crimes such as murder, kidnapping, and violations of the Prevention of Corruption Act or crimes against women. The bypolls will take place on November 13 in the constituencies of Coochbehar Sitai (SC), Haroa, Naihati, Medinipur, Taldangra, and Madarihat (ST). However, the affidavit for one candidate, independent contestant Pankaj Lohra from Madarihat (ST), could not be reviewed due to missing documents. <h2>Wealthiest candidates</h2>In addition to those with criminal cases, seven candidates declared assets exceeding Rs 1 crore. Congress leads in this regard, with three crorepati candidates, followed by the BJP with two, and the TMC and CPIM(L) with one each. According to the affidavits, the wealthiest candidate is TMC's <keyword id="23849799" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sanat-dey" source="keywords">Sanat Dey</keyword> from Naihati, who has assets worth Rs 4.9 crore, including Rs 1.8 crore in immovable property. Following him is BJP's Ananya Roy Chakraborty, who is contesting from Taldangra, with assets totalling nearly Rs 3 crore. TMC’s Shyamal Kumar Ghosh, running for the Medinipur seat, declared assets of approximately Rs 1.69 crore. On average, the candidates’ assets are valued at around Rs 58.14 lakh. In contrast to the wealthiest candidates, Kashikanta Barman from the Kamatapur Peoples Party (United), contesting from Coochbehar Sitai (SC), has declared the lowest assets, amounting to just Rs 5,000. This wide range of wealth highlights the diverse financial backgrounds of candidates in the bypolls. (With inputs from agencies)

West Bengal bypolls to feature seven candidates with serious criminal cases including murder and kidnapping

<keyword id="19909056" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Mamata-Banerjee" source="keywords">Mamata Banerjee</keyword>, the <keyword id="19924917" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chief-Minister" source="keywords">Chief Minister</keyword> of <keyword id="19896517" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="West-Bengal" source="keywords">West Bengal</keyword> and leader of the <keyword id="19968095" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Trinamool-Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Trinamool Congress" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Trinamool Congress">Trinamool Congress</keyword> (TMC), has been a dominant force in the state's politics for over a decade. Recently, she offered to resign amidst the ongoing <keyword id="23154517" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="R-G-Kar-Hospital-protests" source="keywords">R.G. Kar Hospital protests</keyword>, where junior doctors have been on strike demanding justice for a murdered colleague. While Banerjee’s offer to step down seems more symbolic, aimed at quelling tensions, it raises important questions about what would happen if she were to actually resign as Chief Minister. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the process and its implications for West Bengal: <h3 style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:16pt;margin-bottom:4pt;">1. Resignation</h3>If Mamata Banerjee were to formally submit her resignation, the process would begin with her presenting a written resignation letter to the <keyword id="23154515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Governor-of-West-Bengal" source="keywords">Governor of West Bengal</keyword>. This is the standard protocol for any Chief Minister in India. The resignation is at the discretion of the Governor, who typically accepts it unless there is a compelling reason not to. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113307547" title="West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee offers to resign after agitating doctors refuse to meet without live streaming" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Once the resignation is accepted, Banerjee would cease to be the CM immediately. However, the Governor might request her to continue as a caretaker CM until a new government is formed. In this role, Banerjee would oversee a temporary government with limited powers, unable to make significant policy decisions or pass new laws. <h3 style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:16pt;margin-bottom:4pt;">2. Election of a new leader</h3>Mamata Banerjee’s resignation would leave a significant leadership vacuum within the Trinamool Congress, which currently has a strong majority in the West Bengal Legislative Assembly. Given her deep-rooted influence over the party, it’s likely that the TMC would convene an emergency meeting to elect a new leader. Banerjee’s close associates, such as her nephew Abhishek Banerjee, could be contenders for the CM post. Alternatively, the party could look for a senior and experienced leader to stabilise the situation until the next elections. However, given Banerjee’s control over the party, she may still wield significant influence from behind the scenes, even if she officially steps down. <h3 style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:16pt;margin-bottom:4pt;">3. Role of the Governor</h3>In the absence of a clear successor, the Governor plays a key role. The Governor might invite the TMC to form the government again by electing a new leader, but if the party fails to show a majority or experiences factionalism, the Governor could explore other options. This could include inviting the opposition to form the government if they demonstrate the numbers, or even recommending <keyword id="23154516" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Presidents-Rule" source="keywords">President’s Rule</keyword> in the state under Article 356 of the Indian Constitution, where the central government takes over the state's administration. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112644728" title="Bengal in state of flux, people lost faith in present government: Governor CV Ananda Bose" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div><h3>4. <keyword id="20554823" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vote-of-confidence" source="keywords">Vote of confidence</keyword></h3>Once a new leader is chosen by the TMC, they will be sworn in as the next Chief Minister. However, they would need to prove their majority on the floor of the West Bengal Legislative Assembly. This process, known as a vote of confidence, is crucial in determining whether the new CM has the support of the majority of the legislators. If the party remains united, this step should be straightforward. However, in the event of internal splits within the TMC or if Banerjee’s resignation triggers political instability, the new leader may struggle to secure the necessary support, potentially leading to fresh elections. <h3 style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:16pt;margin-bottom:4pt;">5. Impact on West Bengal’s <keyword id="20142886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="political-landscape" source="keywords">political landscape</keyword></h3>Mamata Banerjee’s resignation would have a profound impact on the political landscape of West Bengal. She has been the face of the TMC and has led the party to consecutive electoral victories, defeating formidable opponents like the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Her departure from the top post could trigger a realignment within the state’s political sphere. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113087561" title="Calcutta High Court seeks CBI report on nasty social media posts on RG Kar hospital rape-murder victim" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>If Banerjee were to leave active politics, it could embolden opposition parties like the BJP, which has been trying to expand its footprint in the state. Additionally, there could be a power struggle within the TMC itself, especially if no clear successor emerges. <h3 style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:16pt;margin-bottom:4pt;">6. President’s Rule as a last resort</h3>In an extreme scenario, where the TMC fails to elect a new leader or where political instability leads to a breakdown of governance, the Governor could recommend President’s Rule. Under this provision, the state government is suspended, and the central government takes direct control of the state’s administration. President’s Rule is generally viewed as a last resort and can be imposed if no party can form a stable government. However, given the TMC’s strong majority in the assembly, this is an unlikely scenario unless there is significant internal fragmentation within the party. In short, if Mamata Banerjee resigns, West Bengal’s political future would hinge on how swiftly a new leader is appointed by her party and how successfully they can prove majority support in the assembly. Should this process falter, the state could face either interim governance under a caretaker government or even the possibility of President’s Rule, depending on the stability of the assembly.

What will happen if Mamata Banerjee actually resigns as the Chief Minister of West Bengal?

The <keyword id="19895345" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Supreme-Court" source="keywords">Supreme Court</keyword> on Monday issued notice to concerned respondents on the <keyword id="20054502" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="West-Bengal-government" source="keywords">West Bengal government</keyword> plea challenging the <keyword id="19895346" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Calcutta-High-Court" source="keywords">Calcutta High Court</keyword> decision cancelling all Other Backward Caste certificates issued in <keyword id="19896517" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="west-bengal" source="keywords">West Bengal</keyword> after 2010. A bench of Chief Justice of India DY Chandrachud with justices JB Pardiwala and Manoj Misra also asked the West Bengal government to file an affidavit explaining the process to determine 77 communities as OBCs. The top court, however, did not stay the Calcutta High Court order but issued notice on West Bengal's application seeking a stay on the order. In the meantime, the top court also asked the government to file an affidavit explaining the process followed for the determination of 77 communities as OBCs. The court sought to know the nature of the survey and the study relied upon the classification of 77 communities as OBCs. The court also sought to know details of the consultation the state government had with the WB Backward Commission prior to including the 77 communities in the OBC list. The court has asked the WB government to file the affidavit within one week. The top court was hearing West Bengal Government challenging Calcutta High Court order. Calcutta HC on May 22 cancelled all <keyword id="20636195" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="OBC-certificates" source="keywords">OBC certificates</keyword> issued in West Bengal after 2010 had directed the West Bengal <keyword id="20779164" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Backward-Classes-Commission" source="keywords">Backward Classes Commission</keyword> to prepare a new list of OBCs in accordance with the 1993 Act. Those who were in the OBC list before 2010 will remain. However, after 2010, OBC nominations have been cancelled. About 5 lakh OBC certificates are set to be cancelled. After 2010, those who have jobs under the OBC quota or are in the process of getting them cannot be excluded from the quota. There will be no impact on their job and they cannot be excluded from the quota.

SC issues notice on plea challenging Calcutta HC decision cancelling all OBC certificates issued in West Bengal after 2010

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Last week, Trump was said to be deciding between two leading candidates for Treasury Secretary.</li><li>Reports say Trump has been having second thoughts and is expanding his search to four major prospects.</li></ul>Two weeks after securing his return to the White House, president-elect Donald Trump has swiftly been forming his Cabinet for 2025.Trump already announced six of the people he wants to lead the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-white-house-staff-cabinet-picks-list-2024-11#marco-rubio-4">15 executive departments</a>, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the Department of Health and Human Services and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio for the State Department.He appears to be taking a slower pace as he chooses his nominated successor to Janet Yellen, the current Secretary of the Treasury.The new Treasury Secretary will likely have two immediate tasks: Helping the US avoid default when the national debt ceiling expires in January 2025 and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">extending the 2017 Trump tax cut</a>, which is worth trillions and is mostly set to expire next year.The president-elect was initially said to be considering just two candidates, but <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-broadens-hunt-for-top-treasury-job-after-jostling-became-messy-e20eb6b6">The Wall Street Journal</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/trump-treasury-candidates.html">New York Times </a>reported that he's been having second thoughts and expanded the list to four prospects.With Trump seemingly still unsure over his choice, it's also possible that another candidate may emerge.Here are the top picks Trump is reportedly now considering for Secretary of the Treasury. A press contact for Trump's transition team did not respond to a request for comment from BI.<h2 id="ac3f4426-a376-4840-ad0c-600691195aaa">Kevin Warsh</h2><div type="image" title="Kevin Warsh is dressed formally and sits as speaks at a panel with three other people." height="2558" width="3837" msid="115408301" hostid="261" sizebytes="1354142"></div>Warsh, 54, is a former Morgan Stanley banker and one of the newer contenders.He was an economic advisor to President George W. Bush from 2002 to 2006 and a governor of the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2011. During the latter period, Warsh was a central figure in shaping the nation's response to the 2007-2008 financial crisis, working to rescue major ailing banks.More recently, he's been working on Trump's transition team, helping with economic policy and personnel, according to The Journal.Warsh appears to have been in the president-elect's good graces for several years. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.axios.com/2019/02/03/trump-compliments-powerful-men-handsome">Axios reported</a> that Trump praised Warsh as a "really handsome guy" when the two met in 2017 at the White House.Trump had been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/03/kevin-warsh-would-take-a-hammer-to-the-fed-but-he-wouldnt-break-it.html">floating Warsh</a> that year as a frontrunner for Fed chair. He eventually picked Jerome Powell for the role.Warsh is often seen as a financial hawk, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/10/24/former-fed-governor-kevin-warsh-the-fed-doesnt-seem-to-have-a-serious-theory-of-inflation.html">saying in October</a> that he believed the Fed "doesn't seem to have a serious theory of inflation" and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/interest-rates-are-a-sideshow-in-the-fed-drama-economy-monetary-policy-central-bank-53bb6d9e">writing in July</a> that it moved too slowly to curb surging prices.In his July commentary, he blamed inflation on "irresponsible government spending and excessive money printing." Warsh has also been critical of America's burgeoning debt.<h2 id="73ed19fc-c4d6-4b1c-af49-0c08335e71cb">Marc Rowan</h2><div type="image" title="Marc Rowan speaks at a financial leaders' summit in Hong Kong." height="2100" width="3150" msid="115408297" hostid="261" sizebytes="210070"></div>Rowan, 62, is a billionaire investor who leads Apollo Global Management, which he cofounded in the 1990s. It now has nearly $700 billion in assets under management. Apollo recently announced that it plans to double its assets under management to $1.5 trillion by 2029.The Journal and the Times reported that Rowan, like Warsh, is one of Trump's new candidates.The Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that while the billionaire's aides are in touch with Trump, Rowan isn't actively trying to secure the Treasury Secretary role and hasn't spoken to Trump personally about such a position.But the Times also wrote that Trump has been telling his staff that he's impressed with Rowan, who Bloomberg estimates to be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/marc-j-rowan/">worth $10.9 billion.</a> Rowan has said that US economic concerns must be fixed by what he called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apollo-ceo-marc-rowan-elon-musk-represents-wholesale-change-and-the-us-needs-it-155238301.html">"wholesale change,"</a> which he said Trump and his new administration would bring.That's broadly in line with how Trump has framed his Cabinet picks, as key movers who will upset the status quo and push fresh reform.Rowan has kept a relatively low profile on his views about government policy, though he recently voiced <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/apollo-ceo-rowan-warns-that-aggressive-rate-cuts-could-backfire">concerns</a> that the Fed could overstimulate the economy with interest rate cuts.<h2 id="e6cea6ab-a68b-4816-b297-f3f995f40039">Howard Lutnick</h2><div type="image" title="A man stands at a Trump/Vance podium" height="2769" width="4300" msid="115408282" hostid="261" sizebytes="238422"></div>Lutnick, 63, is the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, a Wall Street financial services firm.Lutnick has been serving as Trump's transition cochair with Linda McMahon, of WWE royalty. He's been a friend of the president-elect for decades, repeatedly holding fundraisers for Trump.In August, Lutnick hosted an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-09/with-lutnick-s-help-trump-raises-15-million-at-hamptons-event">event at his home</a> in the Hamptons that raised $15 million for the Trump-Vance campaign.Lutnick has aligned himself closely with Trump's rhetoric. In late October, he expressed a vision for the US economy, describing America in the year 1900 to a crowd at Madison Square Garden, saying it was a time when the "economy was rocking.""We had no income tax, and all we had was tariffs," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1b4UZn1GAk&amp;ab_channel=HowardW.Lutnick">he said to a cheering stadium.</a> Lutnick has also said that under Trump, corporate taxes would be raised for US giants like Apple and Tesla. He said that Elon Musk, a Trump ally, welcomed such a move if it applied to all big players. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-lutnick-treasury-secretary-bessent-2024-11">Musk has endorsed Lutnick</a> for Treasury Secretary.Lutnick is also known for steering Cantor Fitzgerald after the 9/11 attack, which killed 658 of its 960 employees at the World Trade Center.<h2 id="4b1b9607-5cdd-4853-b1e5-347ec1d4ffa3">Scott Bessent</h2><div type="image" title="A man in a red vest and blue sweater goes for a walk" height="2931" width="4396" msid="115408293" hostid="261" sizebytes="791788"></div>Bessent, 62, was one of the original frontrunners for Trump's Treasury Secretary.His involvement emerged early last week when <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bessent-paulson-lead-us-treasury-secretary-under-trump-sources-say-2024-11-08/">Reuters reported</a> that the founder of macro investment firm Key Square Capital Management had been meeting with Trump at the Mar-a-Lago resort.Bessent worked for the liberal philanthropist George Soros from 1991 to 2015, making a name for himself by betting big against the British pound, which collapsed in 1992, and then against the Japanese yen as it weakened in 2013.He left Soros' firm in 2015 to start Key Square, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/the-ex-soros-executive-who-is-trumps-new-obsession-4be2d493">The Journal</a> reported that he hasn't spoken to the billionaire in years.Bessent has been vocal in his support for Trump, telling <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/18/exclusive-scott-bessent-kamala-harris-economic-illiterate-will-crash-economy/">Breitbart</a> in August that Vice President Kamala Harris would have crashed the economy if she was president.He wrote <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/markets-hail-trumps-economics-he-will-repair-biden-damage-pro-growth-investment-boost-f3954dbe?">an opinion column</a> just after the election, praising Trump for a stock market rally after his win and knocking <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/nobel-prize-economists-harris-economic-plan/index.html">23 Nobel Prize-winning economists</a> for predicting that the president-elect's agenda would be "counterproductive."The investor laid out his ideas for the economy in his written piece, calling for the Trump administration to reduce government borrowing and to reform President Joe Biden's policies for investment in a "quixotic energy transition."Like Lutnick, he's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/scott-bessent-talk-tariffs-its-time-revitalize-alexander-hamiltons-favorite-tool">advocated for an economy</a> that's more reliant on tariffs and weaned off income tax, saying the move would restore America's position on the world stage and help curb China's growth.However, The Journal reported that some conservatives in Trump's circle were concerned about Bessent's past experience working for Soros, who has attracted the ire of the MAGA base for his support of left-leaning causes.

Meet the top 4 candidates Trump is considering for Secretary of the Treasury

<keyword id="21033069" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="women-candidates" source="keywords">Women candidates</keyword> like Selja, <keyword id="19941210" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kangana-Ranaut" source="keywords">Kangana Ranaut</keyword>, <keyword id="19968072" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hema-Malini" source="keywords">Hema Malini</keyword>, <keyword id="19960481" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Dimple-Yadav" source="keywords">Dimple Yadav</keyword> and <keyword id="20377641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Misha-Bharti" source="keywords">Misha Bharti</keyword> are leading by a significant margin in their respective constituencies in the general elections. Amethi's incumbent MP <keyword id="19899683" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="smriti-irani" source="keywords">Smriti Irani</keyword> and Sultanpur MP Maneka Gandhi are among MPs trailing by huge margin in their constituencies. Selja, <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword> candidate from Sirsa, is also leading from her constituency by over 2.5 lakh votes, as of 3.35 pm. <keyword id="20453436" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bansuri-Swaraj" source="keywords">Bansuri Swaraj</keyword>, who has been fielded by the BJP from New Delhi constituency is leading by over 50,000 votes. A total of 797 women contested the Lok Sabha elections. Some of the prominent women candidates who are leading in the contest include Kangana Ranaut, Hema Malini, Dimple Yadav and Misha Bharti. At 3 pm, Ranaut, first time contender from BJP in Himachal Pradesh's Mandi, is leading by over 70,000 against Congress leader Vikramaditya Singh. Incumbent MP from Mathura Hema Malini is leading from the constituency with a margin of over 2 lakh votes against Congress candidate Mukesh Dhangar. Dimple Yadav, the incumbent MP from Mainpuri, has also maintained a comfortable lead of over 2 lakh against BJP's Jayveer Singh. Misha Bharti, daughter of RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav, is also leading against union minister and incumbent MP from Bihar's Pataliputra by a margin over nearly 50,000 votes. <keyword id="19981448" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mahua-Moitra" source="keywords">Mahua Moitra</keyword>, incumbent MP from West Bengal's Krishnanagar, is also leading in her seat by a margin of over 50,000 votes while Baramati's incumbent MP Supriya Sule also leading by over 20,000 votes. DMK's Kanimozhi Karunanidhi, incumbent MP from Thoothukkudi, is also leading from her constituency by over 2.5 lakh votes.

LS polls: Kangana, Hema Malini, Dimple Yadav among women candidates leading with comfortable margin

As the final five phases of polls draw closer, rift among <keyword id="20101713" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="INDIA-bloc-partners" source="keywords">INDIA bloc partners</keyword>, <keyword id="21533469" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress-Left-combine" source="keywords">Congress-Left combine</keyword> and the <keyword id="19942089" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="TMC" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="TMC" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="TMC">TMC</keyword>, which are fighting separately has intensified, triggering a fierce contest across half of the remaining 36 constituencies in West Bengal driven by local issues such as <keyword id="20074422" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sandeshkhali" source="keywords">Sandeshkhali</keyword> and the SSC scam. TMC's decision to contest independently in the state, rather than as part of the bloc, has led to a three-way contest, with the other contenders being the BJP and the Congress-Left alliance. Nevertheless, both TMC and Congress have asserted that they are part of the INDIA bloc at the national level and are authentic representatives of the opposition front in Bengal. Political analysts suggest that without a dominant national narrative like national security after the 2019 Pulwama attacks, local concerns such as corruption allegations, the cancellation of School Service Commission (SSC) jobs, incidents in Sandeshkhali and implementation of the <keyword id="19965573" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Citizenship-Amendment-Act" source="keywords">Citizenship Amendment Act</keyword> (CAA) are altering election dynamics. Maidul Islam, a political scientist at the Centre for Studies in Social Sciences, remarked, "Till a few months ago, it seemed the elections in Bengal will be a bipolar contest between the TMC and BJP. But with issues like corruption and Sandeshkhali gaining prominence, the Left-Congress alliance is fast gaining traction in several seats and turning the polls into a three-cornered contest in at least 18-20 LS segments." He said besides the two and three seats in Malda and Murshidabad districts, where TMC and Congress secured two each and the BJP one in 2019, there are 13 seats spread across South Bengal, where the TMC and the Left-Congress alliance are engaging in intense competition. "It's not that the Left-Congress will win many seats, but in segments where their vote share is above 10 per cent, there is a likelihood that they might influence the outcome, to the disadvantage of either the TMC or the BJP, if they manage to secure two per cent more votes," Islam added. According to sources in TMC and CPI(M), the electoral battleground extends beyond Malda and Murshidabad, encompassing Lok Sabha segments like Dum Dum, Srerampore, Arambagh, Hooghly, Howrah, Barrackpore, Bardhaman-Purba, Bardhaman-Durgapur, Bankura, Purulia, Tamluk, Kolkata North, and Jadavpur, all poised for a three-cornered fight. Notably, eight of these seats were won by TMC and the remaining by BJP in the 2019 parliamentary polls. "The shift in dynamics presents the Congress-Left alliance as a significant player, and its emergence complicates the electoral narrative, transcending the conventional TMC versus BJP dichotomy," political analyst Subhomoy Moitra said. While the Left Front is contesting 30 seats, the Congress has fielded candidates in 12 out of 42 seats. "We wanted an alliance with the Congress, but they were delaying the seat-sharing arrangements, so we decided to go alone. Now the Left-Congress alliance is helping the BJP by trying to eat into our votes," remarked TMC leader Santanu Sen. According to TMC leaders, the breakup of INDIA alliance in Bengal has both electoral advantages and disadvantages. "After the Left and Congress alliance fell apart in West Bengal in 2019, it had led to a four-cornered contest with BJP bagging the entire chunk of the anti-TMC votes in the state," they said. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP bagged 18 seats and its vote share rose from 17 to 40 per cent. Meanwhile, despite a 3 per cent rise in vote share, the TMC lost 12 seats, dropping from 34 to 22. The Left drew a blank with a vote share decline from 24 per cent to 6 per cent, and the Congress lost two seats, shrinking its vote share from 9.5 per cent to 5 per cent and bagging just two seats. "Local issues such as corruption and SSC scam are helping the Left-Congress in the state as there is anger among a section of people against the TMC and also against the BJP over the perception of a tacit understanding," a TMC leader said. Analysts observe that <keyword id="43868" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="mamata-banerjee" source="Orion">Mamata Banerjee</keyword>'s intensified criticism of Left and Congress, accusing them of aiding BJP, and the ensuing sharp responses from CPI(M) and Congress, alleging a secret pact between TMC and BJP, as indicative of the growing significance of Left-Congress alliance. Data from various local elections and by-polls conducted after 2021 assembly elections indicate a shift in anti-TMC votes as there has been a resurgence of Left-Congress combine. Incidentally, the BJP had witnessed a decline in its vote share as compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha and 38 per cent in 2021 assembly polls. In 2023, violence scarred panchayat polls which covered nearly 70 per cent of the state's electorate, the TMC had bagged 51 per cent of votes whereas the BJP had bagged 22 per cent. The Left-Congress-ISF alliance had, however, bagged 23 per cent votes. The ISF this time, however, has decided to contest alone in 17 seats. Congress leader Suvankar Sarkar emphasized, "People are disenchanted with the TMC and the BJP, as they are both sides of the same coin. People are coming out in large numbers to support the Left-Congress candidates." CPI(M) leader Sujan Chakraborty expressed confidence in the Left-Congress alliance's potential to deliver surprising results in the elections, claiming initial success in breaking bipolar politics in Bengal. BJP state president Sukanta Majumdar downplayed the significance of the rift in opposition alliance and the three-cornered fight in various seats. "People know that BJP is only fighting TMC's misrule in Bengal. Those who want to vote against TMC, will vote for us only just like in the 2019 and 2021 polls," he said. Political scientist Biswanath Chakraborty suggested that TMC stands to gain the most from the three-cornered contest. In minority pockets, the Left-Congress alliance could dent TMC's vote base, potentially aiding BJP's prospects, he noted.

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