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<ul class="summary-list"><li>China is considering a fresh $1.4 trillion stimulus, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eyeing-us-election-china-considers-over-14-trillion-extra-debt-over-next-few-2024-10-29/">Reuters</a> reported.</li><li>The package could be approved next week and would increase in size if Trump wins the election. </li></ul>China could approve a fresh round of stimulus in the next week, and officials in Beijing are eyeing even more aid for the country's economy in the event Donald Trump wins the US presidential election on November 5. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eyeing-us-election-china-considers-over-14-trillion-extra-debt-over-next-few-2024-10-29/">A report from Reuters</a> on Tuesday said the country's top legislative body could approve a plan to raise $1.4 trillion in extra debt over the next few years to deploy as part of an economic rescue package. The large fiscal stimulus would be increased if Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump wins the US election, the report says.Sources told Reuters the package would be approved by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC) on the last day of its meeting next week.The package amounts to 10 trillion yuan worth of debt, with 6 trillion raised by special sovereign bonds and put largely toward aiding local governments deal with their debts, the report says. The remaining 4 trillion yuan would be raised by local government bonds and put toward idle land and property purchases, the sources told Reuters.The report says the officials are also considering another at least another one trillion yuan aimed at efforts including boosting consumption, and another trillion in capital for large state banks.The whopping $1.4 trillion amounts to over 8% of China's total economic output, but is still short of the country's stimulus measures from 2008 which totaled 13% of the country's GDP at the time.The sources say the measures would be confirmed on the last day of the NPC's meeting next Friday — giving ample time to factor in the results of the US presidential election, which takes place on Tuesday.If Trump is elected, the stimulus package could be higher due to the economic challenges Trump's policies would pose for China, the sources told Reuters. Trump has proposed sweeping 20% tariffs on imports, though he's pitched much steeper 60% tariffs on goods from China. The report comes a month after China announced its first round of stimulus measures, aimed at propping up its economy, which has struggled since reopening following the COVID-19 pandemic. The country has been plagued by a weak property sector and surging local government debt, as well as depressed consumer demand. Analysts appeared unimpressed with the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">initial rounds of stimulus</a>, with several top Wall Street analysts saying the measures aren't enough to solve the issues facing consumption or the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-housing-property-stimulus-economic-growth-goldman-sachs-2024-10">housing market's structural problems</a>.Some have turned more optimistic on more recent measures, though. Earlier this month analysts from Goldman Sachs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-growth-beijing-stimulus-reasl-estate-market-goldman-sachs-2024-10">upped their 2024 forecast for China's economic growth</a> from 4.7% to 4.9%, citing recent promises of greater public spending by the government.

China is eyeing $1.4 trillion in fiscal stimulus and even more if Trump is elected, report says

<keyword id="20207838" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dsp-mutual-fund" source="keywords">DSP Mutual Fund</keyword>'s September 2024 Netra report credits <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s strong economic recovery to increased fiscal expenditure. The report, which tracks current economic trends and market insights through various charts, emphasizes the need for the private corporate sector and households to play a larger role in sustaining the ongoing growth momentum. Netra also pointed out an unsettling calm in the markets, with the Nifty 50 TRI index maintaining an impressive 53-month streak without a 5% decline and 13 years without a drop greater than 10%. Sahil Kapoor, Head of Products and Market Strategist, DSP Mutual Fund, said, "The calm in the markets, marked by an unnerving lack of volatility, is a double-edged sword. While it provides a sense of stability, it also masks underlying risks that could surface unexpectedly, catching investors off guard. To ensure a sustainable recovery, there is a need for the private sector and households to take the lead, transforming fiscal stimulus into lasting economic growth." However, the report notes a shift in market dynamics, with the momentum factor, which has outperformed since the COVID-19 bottom, beginning to lose its dominance. At the same time, the quality factor, which had underperformed over the last four years, is now seeing a resurgence, potentially indicating a change in market leadership that could favour quality-orientated funds, both active and passive. The report highlights the critical role government spending has played in the recovery, with a focus on capital investments crucial for future growth. However, contributions from the private corporate sector and households have lagged. It also draws attention to a slowdown in India's per capita consumption, approaching lows seen in previous cycles. Given that consumption accounts for around 60% of GDP, it is vital that this sector grows at a rate exceeding GDP growth to stimulate private capital expenditure. India's <keyword id="487578" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-collections" source="Orion">tax collections</keyword> have demonstrated robust growth, with gross tax revenue showing a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14 %. This growth, largely driven by <keyword id="6354751" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="income-tax" source="Orion">income tax</keyword>, indicates a rising dependency on capital gains and stock market performance, introducing new vulnerabilities to the economy. The banking and financial services sector (<keyword id="19910880" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bfsi" source="keywords">BFSI</keyword>) has emerged as a key driver of market earnings, recording a 12 % increase in profit after tax (PAT) growth, significantly outpacing the 4.6 % growth observed in non-BFSI Nifty 50 companies. This disparity underscores the sector's importance in India's economic story and highlights promising investment opportunities.

India's strong economic recovery is led by fiscal expenditure: DSP MF

New Delhi: <keyword id="19909974" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="maruti-suzuki" source="keywords">Maruti Suzuki</keyword> <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword> is looking to sell around 6 lakh CNG vehicles in the current fiscal, an increase of around 25 per cent as compared to FY24, according to a senior company executive. The country's largest carmaker company on Wednesday expanded its CNG model range as it rolled out its premium hatchback Swift with S-CNG trims. "This fiscal we are targeting to sell around 6 lakh CNG units. We ended last year with sales of around 4.77 lakh units," <keyword id="20035105" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="maruti-suzuki-india-senior" source="keywords">Maruti Suzuki India Senior</keyword> Executive Officer (Marketing and Sales) <keyword id="21102180" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="partho-banerjee" source="keywords">Partho Banerjee</keyword> told PTI in an interaction. In the April-August period this fiscal, the auto major has so far sold 2.21 lakh units, he added. The new Swift comes in three variants priced at Rs 8.19 lakh; Rs 8.46 lakh and Rs 9.19 lakh respectively. <keyword id="20068420" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banerjee" source="keywords">Banerjee</keyword> said the S-CNG trims deliver a fuel-efficiency of 32.85 km/kg. "The company pioneered the production of CNG vehicles in <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword> back in 2010. Since then, we have sold over 2 million S-CNG vehicles to date, contributing to a significant reduction of 2 million tonnes of CO2 emissions," he added. The company now offers 14 models with CNG technology, <keyword id="20068420" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banerjee" source="keywords">Banerjee</keyword> said. "Last fiscal year, our CNG sales in the passenger vehicle category witnessed a 46.8 per cent growth, compared to 2022-23 and registered a compound annual growth rate of around 28 per cent since 2010," he noted.

Maruti Suzuki targets to sell 6 lakh CNG units this fiscal: Official

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may begin lowering <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> around October, provided that external factors like weather conditions and international commodity prices do not cause any disruptions, the credit rating agency, Crisil said in its report. The credit rating agency further anticipated that it expects "two rate cuts this fiscal." It said that the decision of the <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) decision to hold rates in its recent announcement was due to the elevated <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>. The climate conditions such as weather events are frequently changing and they need to be monitored. Going ahead, it anticipated that the macroeconomic environment would be better, creating a background for a rate cut. "The food challenge to a rate cut is expected to ease as agriculture prospects look better than last year. The monsoon has been above normal (7 per cent above the long period average as of August 7), and sowing has picked up across major foodgrains. As agriculture prospects become clearer by September, we expect it to pave the way for a rate cut," the S&amp;P's arm added in its report. In a move reflecting its cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties, the RBI has decided to keep the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5 per cent. The decision to keep the repo rate steady comes amidst persistent concerns about <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword>, which remains above the RBI's target range. The central bank's commitment to bringing inflation down to its 4 per cent target continues to face challenges due to ongoing food inflation and other economic factors. Noting a likely uptick in core inflation, the report added that factors such as international freight costs, geopolitical risks to crude oil prices, and hikes in domestic telecom tariffs could affect this indicator. Anticipating the growth, it added, "The pace of growth of the economy is expected to ease this year, with lower fiscal support as the government pursues <keyword id="20101140" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-consolidation" source="keywords">fiscal consolidation</keyword>." Announcing the MPC's decision on August 8, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das expected the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 7.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2024-25. Governor Das emphasized that the RBI remains vigilant regarding inflationary pressures and will take necessary actions to maintain price stability while supporting the country's economic recovery. The MPC's decision reflects a balanced approach, aiming to control inflation without stifling growth. The adjustments in repo rate have a direct effect on <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and job creation. The lower interest rates tend to stimulate economic growth by making borrowing cheaper for businesses.

RBI expected to begin rate cuts in October, with two reductions this fiscal: Crisil

<keyword id="19896018" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kerala" source="keywords">Kerala</keyword> Chief Minister <keyword id="19901169" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pinarayi-vijayan" source="keywords">Pinarayi Vijayan</keyword> on Thursday said that the cess and surcharge levied by the Centre was showing a "rising trend" and resulting in "shrinkage" of states' share in the divisive pool of taxes. Vijayan said the rise in surcharges and cesses, which are not included in the divisive pool, was happening at a time when the <keyword id="20015455" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="finance-commission" source="keywords">Finance Commission</keyword> has been recommending a higher share for the states from the net proceeds of the taxes collected by the Centre. Vijayan was speaking at a conclave of five non-BJP-ruled states organised by Kerala to discuss the key issues related to the 16th <keyword id="25455" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="finance" source="Orion">Finance</keyword> Commission. He said that the 16th Finance Commission needs to factor in this rising trend in surcharges and cesses, when it recommends the prescribed share of the states from the net proceeds of taxes collected by the union government. The CM further said that the share of the states in the divisive pool needs to be increased further from the 41 per cent recommended by the <keyword id="23137017" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="last-finance-commission" source="keywords">last Finance Commission</keyword>. He said that Kerala and many other states have made this demand in the past with the southern state suggesting that it be increased to 50 per cent. "The demand for a higher share for the states in the taxes collected by the Union is having continued relevance and it is my request to the eminent scholars and colleagues who are here to formulate this in a concrete manner," Vijayan said. "This will help the states to make an effective case before the 16th Finance Commission for raising the share of taxes which are distributed to the states, in view of the widening vertical fiscal Imbalances."

Rise in cess, surcharge shrinking states' share in divisive pool of taxes: Kerala CM

Revenues of organised <keyword id="21758362" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-jewellery-retailers" source="keywords">gold jewellery retailers</keyword> are expected to surge by 22-25% this fiscal year, driven by the sharp reduction in import duties on <keyword id="18712" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold" source="Orion">gold</keyword> in the July Budget, according to a <keyword id="20874793" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CRISIL-report" source="keywords">CRISIL report</keyword>. A recent analysis by CRISIL Ratings, which examined 58 gold jewellery retailers representing a third of the <keyword id="21165181" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="organised-sector" source="keywords">organised sector</keyword>'s revenues, indicates that the sector will benefit from improved <keyword id="19900859" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="working-capital" source="keywords">working capital</keyword> management. Although many retailers plan significant store expansions--estimated at 12-14% of existing stores--lower gold prices will reduce inventory costs, providing working capital relief. The organised jewellery sector, which accounts for just over a third of the overall market, is poised for a stronger financial performance compared to its unorganised counterpart. The steep reduction in <keyword id="20069572" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="import-duty" source="keywords">import duty</keyword> has come at a crucial time for the industry, as retailers prepare for the festive and marriage seasons. Following the price decline, volumes are expected to grow by 3-5% this fiscal year, reversing earlier projections of stagnant demand. Gold prices had been steadily rising since February 2024, which had subdued consumer demand and led to revenue growth driven solely by higher realisations rather than increased sales volumes. Himank Sharma, Director at CRISIL Ratings, highlighted the timely impact of the duty cut and said, "The duty cuts to their decadal lows have come at an opportune time for the gold jewellery retailers as they start stocking for the festive and marriage seasons from the latter half of August." He added, "However, the inventory losses on the existing stock due to the price cuts will be partially mitigated by the reduced spends on marketing and discounts, as demand revives. All said <keyword id="19957745" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="profitability" source="keywords">profitability</keyword> will see a marginal dip on-year to 7.1-7.2%." Despite the pressure on profitability, retailers' cash flows will improve due to higher revenues, enabling them to pursue expansion plans. Store expansions, expected to increase by 12-14%, will require higher inventory levels. However, the lower input costs resulting from reduced gold prices will balance out the additional working capital requirements. Gaurav Arora, Associate Director at CRISIL Ratings, added, "Gold jewellery retailers will maintain comfortable financial metrics this fiscal, with total outside liabilities to tangible net worth (TOL/TNW) and interest coverage ratios remaining around 1.0 and 9 times, respectively. These will be moderately better than our earlier expectations, keeping credit profiles stable." As the festive season approaches, gold prices remain around 17% higher than last year's average, which is expected to sustain demand and further drive revenues in the second half of the fiscal year. However, potential volatility in gold prices, changes in government regulations, and shifts in consumer sentiment will need to be closely monitored. The combination of reduced prices, increased demand, and improved working capital management is expected to keep the financial outlook for gold jewellery retailers positive, despite the slight dip in profitability. The reduced duty has caused retail gold prices to fall by Rs 4,500-5,000 per 10 grams, leading to increased demand for gold jewellery. The growth projection, 500-600 basis points higher than earlier estimates of 17-19%, is fuelled by higher volumes as more consumers are enticed by the lower prices.

Budget import duty cut will boost gold jewellery retailers' revenues by 22-25% this fiscal, notes CRISIL report

Strong growth and a narrower <keyword id="19942084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-deficit" source="keywords">fiscal deficit</keyword> can lead to a <keyword id="20424939" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sovereign-rating" source="keywords">sovereign rating</keyword> upgrade for <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>, a German brokerage said on Monday. The government's commitments on fiscal deficit to 5.1 per cent in FY25 and further down to 4.5 per cent in FY26 "look more credible now", analysts at <keyword id="19960549" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Deutsche-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Deutsche Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Deutsche Bank">Deutsche Bank</keyword> said, pointing out that the number came in at 5.6 per cent in FY24 as against the budgeted 5.8 per cent. Courtesy the higher than expected dividend announcement by the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) at Rs 2.1 lakh crore, the fiscal deficit for FY25 can come down to 5 per cent as against the budgeted 5.1 per cent. On growth, the note said it expects real GDP expansion to come at 6.9 per cent in FY25 and go down further to 6.5 per cent in FY26. "Strong growth, lower fiscal deficit opens up room for ratings upgrade," the note said. "A faster-than-anticipated pace of fiscal consolidation could pave the way for a sooner-rather-than-later sovereign rating upgrade for India," the analysts said. It can be noted that global rating agency <keyword id="20043943" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P">S&amp;P</keyword> had last week revised up the outlook on its sovereign rating for India to "positive" from "stable" earlier. On Friday, official data suggested that the economy grew at a faster clip of 8.2 per cent in the March quarter, which takes the FY24 real <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> to 7.6 per cent. The note said the Indian economy has exhibited "remarkable resilience" despite higher rates for longer, the Russia-Ukraine war and Covid prior to that, though a strong pickup in real GDP growth during FY24 can be also attributed materially to a very low <keyword id="21922336" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-deflator" source="keywords">GDP deflator</keyword>. It explained that nominal GDP growth slowed to 9.6 per cent in FY24, from 14.2 per cent in FY23 and 19 per cent in FY22. But in real terms, GDP growth accelerated to 8.2 per cent in FY24 from 7 per cent in FY23, thanks to a collapse in the GDP deflator to 1.4 per cent in FY24 from 7.6 per cent year-on-year in FY23 and 9.4 per cent in FY22. Deutsche Bank also advised caution on reading the headline GDP numbers, pointing out that while the real GDP grew 8.2 per cent, real GVA (gross value added) growth was 1 percentage point lower at 7.2 per cent.

Strong growth, lower fiscal deficit may lead to India rating upgrade: Deutsche Bank

New Delhi: The <keyword id="19903456" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="income-tax-department" source="keywords">income tax department</keyword> has notified the <keyword id="21803475" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Cost-Inflation-Index" source="keywords">Cost Inflation Index</keyword> for the current fiscal beginning April 2024, for calculating <keyword id="20584761" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="long-term-capital-gains" source="keywords">long-term capital gains</keyword> arising from sale of immovable property, securities and jewellery. The Cost <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">Inflation</keyword> Index (CII) is used by <keyword id="20081991" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="taxpayers" source="keywords">taxpayers</keyword> to compute gains arising out of sale of capital <keyword id="19975917" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="assets" source="keywords">assets</keyword> after adjusting inflation. The CII for <keyword id="19910979" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-year" source="keywords">financial year</keyword> 2024-25, relevant to assessment year 2025-26, stood at 363, as per a notification of the Central Board of Direct Taxes (<keyword id="19980145" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CBDT" source="keywords">CBDT</keyword>). The CII number for last fiscal was 348 and for 2022-23 financial year it was 331. Moore Singhi Executive Director Rajat Mohan said the CII reflects the inflation in the economy, which causes the prices of goods and services to increase over time. The index for the following financial year, 2024-25, has been updated to 363, marking an increase of 15 points, which corresponds to an annual inflation rate of approximately 4.3 per cent. "This is consistent with the retail inflation rate of 4.83 per cent recorded in April 2024. Taxpayers usually prefer a higher CII as it allows them to claim larger tax rebates," Mohan said. AKM Global Partner-Tax Sandeep Sehgal said the index is useful to adjust the capital gains for inflation, so that the taxpayers are taxed on real appreciation of the assets and not the gains due to inflation. "Taxpayers can use this to calculate gains for long-term capital assets sold during FY 24-25 and reduce the tax liability accordingly," Sehgal said. CII is notified under the Income-tax Act, 1961 every year. It is popularly used to calculate "indexed cost of acquisition", while calculating capital gains at the time of sale of any capital asset. Normally, an asset is required to be retained for more than 36 months (24 months for immovable property and unlisted shares, 12 months for listed securities) to qualify as 'long-term capital gains'. Since prices of goods increase over time resulting in a fall in the purchasing power, the CII is used to arrive at the inflation adjusted purchasing price of assets so as to compute taxable long-term capital gains (LTCG).

IT department declares 363 as cost inflation index for current fiscal

The Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) is likely to transfer approximately Rs 1000 billion to the <keyword id="19900449" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government" source="keywords">government</keyword> IN <keyword id="19965933" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FY25" source="keywords">FY25</keyword> according to a report by Union Bank of India. The report highlights that RBI is anticipated to maintain a robust <keyword id="20047030" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dividend" source="keywords">dividend</keyword> payout for the <keyword id="20093202" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-year" source="keywords">fiscal year</keyword> 2025 (FY25). This projection represents a slight increase from Rs 874 billion transferred in the previous fiscal year. "The government has budgeted the FY25 dividend for RBI and PSU banks &amp; financial institutions at INR 1020bn, vis-a-vis INR 1044bn in FY24. In our view, a positive surprise is likely, similar to last year when initial budget estimate for overall dividend was only INR 480bn" said the report. Analysts in the report predict a potential positive surprise, akin to the previous fiscal year, when the initial budget estimate for dividends was significantly lower at INR 480 billion. Despite several factors influencing RBI's dividend calculation, such as <keyword id="21195402" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-earnings" source="keywords">interest earnings</keyword> and foreign exchange (FX) gains, analysts predict a continuation of strong dividend figures. The majority of RBI's balance sheet, approximately 70 percent, consists of foreign currency assets, with another 20 per cent in domestic government bonds. Interest earnings from these securities are expected to range from Rs 1.5-1.7 trillion. Additionally, interest from liquidity operations has increased RBI's earnings, particularly as the banking system returned to a deficit mode from September 2023. While income gains of RBI from FX (Forex) sales decreased slightly due to lower sales volumes, they are expected to remain substantial despite a rise in the weighted average cost of <keyword id="20102143" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserves" source="keywords">reserves</keyword>. Moreover, a decline in provisions likely contributed to boosting RBI's dividend. Provisions for reserves, as per the Economic Capital Framework outlined by the Jalan committee, saw a rise in the contingency fund provision due to increased balance sheet growth. The impact of the RBI dividend announcement on markets may be limited in the near term, especially with ongoing elections potentially delaying government spending. However, if the surplus balance is utilized for activities like G-Sec buybacks, it could support the shorter end of the G-Sec curve. Overall, analysts maintain a positive outlook on longer-duration G-Secs due to favorable demand-supply dynamics. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/indian-smartphone-market-up-8-5g-smartphones-account-for-over-70-of-shipments/articleshow/110002512.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/indian-smartphone-market-up-8-5g-smartphones-account-for-over-70-of-shipments/articleshow/110002512.cms" target="_blank">Indian smartphone market up 8%, 5G smartphones account for over 70% of shipments</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/ipl-decoded-highest-individual-scores-in-ipl-2024-so-far-from-stoinis-to-kohli/slidelist/110008351.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/ipl-decoded-highest-individual-scores-in-ipl-2024-so-far-from-stoinis-to-kohli/slidelist/110008351.cms" target="_blank">IPL Decoded: Highest individual scores in IPL 2024 so far, from Stoinis to Kohli</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/apple-and-samsung-dominate-the-top-selling-smartphones-in-q1-2024/slidelist/109977094.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/apple-and-samsung-dominate-the-top-selling-smartphones-in-q1-2024/slidelist/109977094.cms" target="_blank">Apple and Samsung dominate the top-selling smartphones in Q1 2024</a>

RBI likely to transfer ₹1 trillion to government in FY25

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Traders and central banks should increase exposure to gold, Bank of America says.</li><li>The strategists say Treasurys face risks as US debt levels soar. </li></ul>Gold is increasingly attractive as other traditional "safe haven" assets face mounting risks, Bank of America strategists said.The strategists said investors, including central banks, should rotate into the precious metal, which bulls tout as a hedge against inflation and debt debasement resulting from rising government borrowing. "Gold looks to be the last 'safe haven' asset standing, incentivising traders including central banks to increase exposure," the strategists said in a Wednesday note.They explained that with US debt expected to keep soaring, Treasury supply faces risks. At the same time, higher interest rate payments as a share of GDP will make gold an attractive asset in the next few years.Rising spending is alson't merely a US issue. The analyst notes that the International Monetary Fund predicts new spending could amount to 7%-8% of global GDP annually by 2030. "Ultimately, something has to give: if markets become reluctant to absorb all the debt and volatility increases, gold may become the asset of choice. Central banks in particular could further diversify their currency reserves," the analysts wrote. With neither candidate for the upcoming US presidential election prioritizing fiscal discipline and a pullback in spending, national debt is projected to hit a record high as a share of the economy in the next three years, the analysts said.That will increase interest payments as a share of GDP, making gold an attractive asset amid concerns that markets won't be able to absorb new debt, they add."Indeed, with lingering concerns over US funding needs and their impact on the US Treasury market, the yellow metal may become the ultimate perceived safe haven asset," the analysts said.The analysts reaffirmed their target of $3,000 an ounce for gold by the end of next year, which implies 11.1% upside from levels on Thursday. The analysts' bullishness for the metal comes as worries grow over mounting spending and debt around the world. Investors have increasingly looked to gold in recent weeks as the Federal Reserve kicked off its easing cycle with a 50-basis point interest rate cut last month, driving the price of gold to gain around 4.3% in the last month.Central banks around the world have also increased their share of gold as a portion of total reserves. The Bank of America analysts note that gold now makes up 10% of central bank reserves, up from 3% a decade ago.

Gold is the 'last safe haven' as Treasurys face risks from soaring US debt, Bank of America says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Welcome back! If you were among the "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/instagram-goodbye-meta-ai-train-generative-post-copypasta-profile-2024-9">Goodbye Meta AI</a>" posters on Instagram this week, I regret to inform you that it won't actually protect your data from being used to train AI. But I respect the effort.By the way, BI's subscription promotion ends tomorrow — <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/limited-offer">don't miss out</a>.In today's big story, Wall Street's big bet on China <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-stimulus-plan-wall-street-stock-market-economy-2024-9">might be fool's gold</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Trump and Harris both want the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-crypto-bitcoin-donors-young-men-2024-9">crypto community in their corner</a>.</li><li>Tech: This chart shows how Netflix is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-stock-historic-high-chart-streaming-2024-9">absolutely crushing the streaming wars</a>.</li><li>Business: Everything thing you need to know about the potential strike <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworker-strike-what-will-be-impacted-prices-inflation-martime-longshoremen-2024-9">that would upend supply chains</a>.</li></ul>But first, I just can't quit you.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Here we go again</h2><div type="image" title="Xi Jinping holding a sparkler, preparing to launch a large cannon-fired Chinese Yuan Currency cash ball" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113821338" hostid="261" sizebytes="65812"></div>Just when Wall Street thought it was out, China is pulling it back in.US financial firms' interest in China was on its last legs, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">but a new stimulus package</a> has some investors excited again.The immediate impact of China's $114 billion package, which includes cutting interest rates and reducing the amount of money banks need to keep in reserve, has been big. But Business Insider's Linette Lopez isn't sold on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-stimulus-plan-wall-street-stock-market-economy-2024-9">this being the start of a turnaround</a>.The fix is more of a bandage than anything else, as it doesn't address key economic issues plaguing the country.Reducing bank reserve requirements means more loans can be issued, but accessing capital isn't the problem, Linette writes. China's dumpster fire of a property market is what has consumers stuck in place.The majority of Chinese household wealth is invested in property (70%), which is a problem considering housing prices have fallen as much as 30% in Tier 1 cities.In short, Chinese consumers' money is tied to assets dropping like lead balloons, which doesn't make them keen to spend money.If you're still buying into the China hype, consider this: The stimulus package isn't that big.The government spent more than $1 trillion in the wake of the finance crisis and $157 billion in 2012 on infrastructure projects.As Linette puts it, "The problem does not match the price tag here."<div type="image" title="Inside a shopping mall in China." height="2845" width="4265" msid="113821331" hostid="261" sizebytes="892590"></div>Still, that's not stopping some Wall Streeters from diving back into China.Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper is <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/david-tepper-buys-chinese-stocks-country-launches-fiscal-stimulus-bazooka-2024-9">extremely bullish on the investing situation in China</a> after the most recent stimulus package, describing it as a buy "everything" moment.He's not alone. Traders, investors, and speculators have sent China's stock market to its <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-boost-economy-stock-market-bazooka-stimulus-sentiment-rally-pboc-2024-9">best month in nearly a decade</a>, signaling that the market players think that Beijing's moves are a "bazooka."Most analysts agree that more will need to be done to keep the good times rolling. (Tepper, for what it's worth, acknowledged as much, noting that People's Bank of China governor Pan Gongsheng "promised to do more and more and more."What that looks like remains to be seen. The key gap in the current policy remains <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-stimulus-stock-market-consumer-deflation-outlook-real-estate-2024-9">fiscal support for China's discouraged consumers</a>, writes BI's Filip De MottIn the meantime, Wall Street's on-again-off-again relationship with China will prevail. As frustrating as the country can be to investors, too much opportunity exists for financiers to turn their back on it forever.So even if this latest crop of China believers gets burned, there will likely be another group willing to follow in their footsteps. After all, maybe this time will be different.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Hamas says its leader in Lebanon was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hamas-says-leader-in-lebanon-killed-in-israel-air-strike-2024-9">killed in an Israeli strike</a></li><li>Globe Life hit with EEOC finding it "created, condoned" a work environment that is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/eeoc-finds-globe-life-created-hostile-work-environment-for-women-2024-9">abusive to women</a>.</li><li>The unsung warriors of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/price-is-right-bob-barker-models-sexual-harrassment-me-too-2024-9">'The Price Is Right.'</a></li><li>Apple no longer in talks to invest in OpenAI: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-falls-out-talks-invest-openai-wsj-report-2024-9">report</a>.</li><li>Who was Hassan Nasrallah, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9">the Hezbollah leader killed by Israel</a>?</li><li>Threads joins X in blocking posts to apparently <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/threads-blocks-jd-vance-leaked-links-2024-9">leaked documents about JD Vance</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Four of the rising stars in a photocollage" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113821334" hostid="261" sizebytes="562898"></div><ol><li>Ones to watch on Wall Street. Our annual list of Wall Street rising stars is here. We identified 25 of the top traders, investors, and dealmakers aged 35 and under. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-wall-street-executives-rising-stars-investing-trading-2024">Check out the full list</a>.</li><li>The fight for crypto bros' votes. Crypto might not matter to most voters, but for those who do care, it matters a lot. That's why former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are both dedicating resources <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-crypto-bitcoin-donors-young-men-2024-9">to court the crypto-community vote amid a tight race</a>.</li><li>The math ain't mathing on Trump Media's valuation. The company's nearly $3 billion market cap "seems unjustifiable," a chief global strategist said, considering its reported sales of $837,000 last quarter and a net loss of $16.4 million. What's worse, the political nature of the company <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-stock-valuation-unjustifiable-even-after-70-drop-strategist-2024-9">means it has limited upside</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="A photo collage of Elon musk, the Twitter logo, and the SpaceX spaceship" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113821333" hostid="261" sizebytes="171566"></div><ol><li>Elon Musk's "autocratic" style is an asset. His fixations are a threat. A new book by a veteran space journalist outlines SpaceX's success under Musk, who's described as a "mercurial leader." While his "autocratic control" of the company helped it gain dominance, his veer to the political right and fixation on X <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-autocratic-style-success-politics-harm-2024-9">could undermine that dominance</a>.</li><li>OpenAI execs were reportedly worried the company could collapse when Ilya Sutskever left. Sutskever, the company's cofounder, left in May. According to a new report from The Wall Street Journal, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-execs-worried-company-collapse-ilya-sutskever-left-report-2024-9">executives attempted to woo the AI researcher back</a> before rescinding the offer.</li><li>The streaming wars have a clear winner. Netflix is crushing the competition, but its victory was far from assured. The streamer's fortunes have changed astronomically in just a little more than two years — and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-stock-historic-high-chart-streaming-2024-9">it's left the competition in the dust</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="A man walks out of a store with a cart full of items, greeted by police officers outside." height="1000" width="1333" msid="113821336" hostid="261" sizebytes="39328"></div><ol><li>The war on "organized retail crime." Since the COVID-19 pandemic, retailers and law enforcement have been cracking down on retail theft, calling perpetrators "criminal masterminds." <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/americas-war-organized-retail-crime-target-cvs-victorias-secret-2024-9">But those who commit these crimes are often homeless or mentally ill</a> — and some say this crackdown has effectively criminalized poverty.</li><li>Ready. Set. Strike. The International Longshoremen's Association, the largest union of maritime workers in the US, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworker-strike-what-will-be-impacted-prices-inflation-martime-longshoremen-2024-9">is set to start striking Tuesday</a> if its wage demands aren't met. Even a two-week strike would disrupt supply chains into 2025, according to one expert.</li><li>Medical bills are more negotiable than you think. You can negotiate your salary, and some people even haggle on things like cell phone bills and rent. When it comes to medical bills, though, many people accept the cost at face value. But healthcare experts told BI that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-get-medical-bills-reduced-negotiate-challenge-payment-plan-2024-9">pushing back on pricey bills is actually worth a shot</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>Elon Musk wants to put people on Mars by 2030. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-plan-colonize-mars-dont-count-on-it-2024-9">Don't count on it</a>.</li><li>Brat summer is over. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brat-summer-over-gen-z-fall-office-fashion-wish-list-2024-9">Here's what Gen Z's wearing to the office this fall</a>.</li><li>Is Mark Zuckerberg still obsessed with efficiency? <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-mark-zuckerberg-efficiency-obsession-wifi-password-2024-9">Check Meta's WiFi password</a>.</li><li>A record number of apartments will hit the market this year. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apartments-record-us-housing-affordability-crisis-home-prices-real-estate-2024-9">That's great news for real estate affordability</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Fed chair Jerome Powell will speak at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting.</li><li>The US fiscal year ends.</li><li>Ryan Routh, the man accused of attempting to assassinate Donald Trump on his golf course earlier this month, is arraigned on gun charges.</li><li>A court hearing for son of Mexican drug lord El Chapo on charges of drug trafficking and money laundering.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

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China is eyeing $1.4 trillion in fiscal stimulus and even more if Trump is elected, report says

Kelly Cloonan