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The deadly landslides in Kerala's ecologically fragile Wayanad district were triggered by a heavy burst of rainfall, made 10 per cent heavier by <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword>, according to a new rapid attribution study by a global team of scientists. Researchers from India, Sweden, the US and the UK warned that such events will become more common as the climate continues to warm. To measure the impact of human-caused climate change, the scientists from the <keyword id="12008149" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Weather-Attribution" source="Orion">World Weather Attribution</keyword> (WWA) group analysed climate models with high enough resolution to accurately reflect rainfall in the relatively small study area. The models indicated that the intensity of rainfall has increased by 10 per cent due to climate change, they said. The models also predict a further four per cent increase in rainfall intensity if the average <keyword id="21951013" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-temperature" source="keywords">global temperature</keyword> rises by two degrees Celsius compared to the 1850-1900 average. The scientists, however, said there is a "high level of uncertainty" in the model results as the study area is small and mountainous with complex rainfall-climate dynamics. Having said that, the increase in heavy one-day rainfall events aligns with a growing body of scientific evidence on extreme rainfall in a warming world, including in India, and the understanding that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to heavier downpours. According to scientists, the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture increases by about 7 per cent for every one-degree Celsius rise in global temperature. The Earth's global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.3 degrees Celsius due to the rapidly rising concentration of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide and methane. Scientists say this is the reason behind worsening <keyword id="19912530" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="extreme-weather-events" source="keywords">extreme weather events</keyword>, such as droughts, heat waves and floods worldwide. The WWA scientists said that while the relationship between land cover, land use changes and landslide risk in Wayanad is not fully clear from existing studies, factors, such as quarrying for building materials and a 62 per cent reduction in forest cover may have increased the slopes' susceptibility to landslides during heavy rainfall. Other researchers have also linked the <keyword id="22597176" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Wayanad-landslides" source="keywords">Wayanad landslides</keyword> to a combination of forest cover loss, mining in fragile terrain and prolonged rain followed by heavy precipitation. S Abhilash, the director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), had earlier told PTI that the warming of the Arabian Sea is leading to the formation of deep cloud systems, resulting in extremely heavy rainfall in Kerala in a short period and increasing the risk of landslides. "Our research found that the southeast Arabian Sea is becoming warmer, causing the atmosphere above Kerala to become thermodynamically unstable. This instability is allowing the formation of deep clouds," he had said. According to the landslide atlas released by ISRO's National Remote Sensing Centre last year, 10 out of the top 30 landslide-prone districts in India are in Kerala, with Wayanad ranked at the 13th spot. A study published by Springer in 2021 said all landslide hotspots in Kerala are in the Western Ghats region and are concentrated in Idukki, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Wayanad, Kozhikode and Malappuram districts. It said about 59 per cent of total landslides in Kerala have occurred in plantation areas. A 2022 study on depleting forest cover in Wayanad showed that 62 per cent of forests in the district disappeared between 1950 and 2018, while plantation cover rose by around 1,800 per cent.

Wayanad landslides linked to 10% heavier rainfall due to climate change: Study

<ul><li>Food inflation was the major driver of June CPI which hit a three-month high.</li><li>Tomato price inflation was at 64%, onions at 8.1%, and potato at 10.5% on a sequential basis.</li><li>Retail prices of pulses reported double-digit growth for the third consecutive month.</li><li>On a sequential basis, wheat and rice inflation also picked pace in June. </li></ul>India’s <keyword id="513422" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="Orion">retail inflation</keyword> is at a three-month high in June at 4.8%, but it may not have reached its peak yet. Many climate related factors have been playing havoc with food inflation, and with most of North India under floods and this will only add to the pinch on the pocket, economists have warned. “Nine states had inflation above the average while six had above 5% — UP, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Kerala, Bihar and Haryana. The recent floods and landslides in the North will tend to push up inflation further in these states on the food side — especially vegetables and fruits which can add another 0.2% to headline inflation,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. Food inflation is a heavyweight in consumer price inflation (CPI), and drove it up in June, even as core inflation cooled as compared to the last month. “Food inflation was the major driver for higher headline inflation print; up by 218 basis points month-on-month versus 67 basis points in the last month due to a 12% hike in vegetables prices,” said a report by Phillip Capital. Price shock: Grains join tomatoes Vegetable prices however are on top of everyone’s minds, and it could get worse as prices of tomatoes refuse to inch down. In June, its prices went up by 64%. But other key vegetables like onion were high too at 8.1%, and potato at 10.5% – on a sequential basis. A report by SBI Ecowrap says that the past 10 years data shows that tomato price increase alone did not influence the overall CPI inflation much — except when it is accompanied by substantial increase in price of potato and onion. “We believe if tomato price increase without any substantial change in potato and onion then average inflation in Q2 FY24 will come near 5.8% yoy but if the TOP (tomato, onion, potato) inflation increases, then CPI might come around 6% yoy in Q2 FY24. Accordingly, average CPI for FY24 will vary between 5.2-5.4%,” says SBI Ecowrap. Grains are not too far behind either. Cereal and pulses inflation remained elevated in June at 12.7% y-o-y and 10.5% y-o-y, respectively. Retail prices of pulses, especially that of tur dal, have risen 24% y-o-y in June, reporting double-digit growth for the third consecutive month. Moreover, the<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/india-sows-more-millets-and-less-rice-this-kharif-season/articleshow/101642365.cms"> sowing in rice and pulses is lower this Kharif season</a> due to delayed monsoons, and that doesn’t bode well for their prices which too are seeing upward pressure. “On a sequential basis, wheat and rice inflation also picked pace in June. Looking ahead, the sale of wheat and rice from the government’s buffer stock via Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) auctions could help cool retail prices of rice, wheat and atta. However, with regards to rice prices, deficient monsoons in West Bengal, a key rice-producing state, could impact sowing, putting upward pressure on prices,” said a report by CareEdge. Milk inflation moderated in June to 8.6% as compared to 8.9%. But it continues to remain sticky above 8%, reeling from the impact of a continued demand-supply mismatch and high fodder costs. “Milk prices could remain higher in the coming months, if unabating cereal inflation keeps cattle feed expensive,” CareEdge says. WPI is comforting, say experts RBI insisted in the last two monetary policy committee meeting updates that its decision to hold key interest rates is a pause not a pivot. Most experts had been hoping that it would go for rate cuts in the second half of the year, but the inflation picture is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/with-inflation-cooling-rbi-may-slash-interest-rates-by-50-bps-this-financial-year/articleshow/100531780.cms">putting cold water on their hopes</a>. “While food prices will create inflationary pressures in the upcoming months due to uneven distribution of monsoon and lower kharif sowing, RBI stance would not be solely contingent on seasonal food inflation,” said Phillip Capital. Even at 4.8%, inflation is within the tolerance band of RBI, which is 4-6%. “The RBI will keep a keen eye here and it is almost given that nothing will change in the policy next month. More caution will be expressed on the inflation front,” said Sabnavis. CareEdge however says that wholesale price inflation (WPI) has been contracting and that is offering some comfort. India’s WPI has been in a deflationary zone for the second month in a row in May, as prices contracted by 3.48%. “Deflation in WPI will have a lagged impact on CPI inflation going forward. Having said that, RBI would remain cautious and adopt a wait and watch mode. We reaffirm our view that RBI would maintain an extended pause in 2023,” said CareEdge.

Inflation to inch higher still? Incessant rains will add to woes, warn economists

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A chain of <a href="https://www.insider.com/atmospheric-river-definition-term-has-becomes-part-of-lexicon-2023-1">atmospheric rivers</a> is raining on drought-stricken California, causing <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-of-california-floods-show-damage-rescues-more-rain-coming-2023-1">deadly floods</a>.</li><li>Drought can make flood hazards worse by leaving brittle trees and landslide-prone wildfire scars.</li></ul>A powerful cyclone walloping California is the latest in a series of atmospheric rivers flooding the state, briefly puncturing a years-long drought.These rivers — long, narrow streams of water vapor traveling from the tropics — can carry as much water as the average flow at the mouth of the Mississippi River.<div type="image" title="satellite image shows giant swirl of clouds just off the coast of california about to engulf the state" height="1500" width="2500" msid="96776841" hostid="261" sizebytes="859864"></div>On Wednesday night, a new one pummeled Northern California with powerful winds and rain, leading to evacuation orders, road closures, and power outages for nearly 170,000 homes.A toddler died after a tree crashed into a house, local paper <a href="https://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/news/toddler-dies-after-tree-lands-on-occidental-home/">The Press Democrat</a> reported, and a 19-year-old died after losing control of her vehicle on a flooded road, according to <a href="https://www.facebook.com/FairfieldPolice/posts/pfbid02fY4bobpkJK6ZvtepjZUBp8nkaupj1uva91zNUQaV6sA7UQxmi2FksCG3usUUQB3al" target="_blank" rel="noopener">police</a>.<div type="image" title="valeros gas pump leaning over underneath collapsed gas station roof" height="1500" width="1999" msid="96776844" hostid="261" sizebytes="171942"></div>Much of the rain fell on ground that was already saturated from <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-of-california-floods-show-damage-rescues-more-rain-coming-2023-1">a similar storm that flooded the area on New Year's Eve</a>. Those floods caused landslides and sinkholes, stranded people in flooded cars and newly formed islands, and breached levees.In some places, waters from the New Year's storm hadn't even receded before the next deluge arrived.<div type="image" title="bulldozer drives down dirt road surrounded by flooding" height="1500" width="2000" msid="96776845" hostid="261" sizebytes="529080"></div>Yet another atmospheric river is forecast to ride on this storm's tails over the weekend, and still another may follow next week. Each rainfall event could layer on more and more flooding.<h2>California is getting both drier and wetter</h2>"Everyone assumes that California's getting drier," Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, told Insider. "It almost universally comes across as a surprise that it's actually more likely that Northern California sees more rain in the future than less — even as it sees more severe droughts."In a counterintuitive twist, both droughts and floods are becoming more severe in California. The state is getting both drier and wetter.Like in many places across the globe, that double whammy makes it harder to adjust to the changing climate.<div type="image" title="crews in hardhats and reflective vests work on a sinkhole in a street" height="1500" width="1999" msid="96776846" hostid="261" sizebytes="450090"></div>Swain calls this "hydroclimate whiplash" — the sudden jump from withering drought to violent floods. It happened last year in the Midwest, the Southwest, China, Pakistan, Australia, and Western Europe.Swain and other scientists are finding that climate change drives more and more of this weather whiplash worldwide."You can really go to any continent, in any season, and find something at this point," Swain said.<h2>Droughts and fires can make flooding more hazardous</h2><div type="image" title="A tree is fallen across a forest road with crews working to remove it" height="1333" width="1778" msid="96776849" hostid="261" sizebytes="272680"></div>Historic drought across California left parched soils ready to drink up the winter rains, but it also created new hazards for flooding.<a href="https://fox5sandiego.com/news/fragile-forests-millions-of-california-trees-dying-due-to-drought/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mass tree die-offs</a> in both forests and cities have left behind brittle skeletons that are prone to collapse in heavy winds. Those falling trees and branches can damage property and knock out power during storms.Drought has also made wildfires more ravenous, leaving behind larger burn scars, which bring their own flood hazards. Areas scarred from wildfire are prone to mudslides and flash floods during heavy rainfall.<div type="image" title="car drives around landslide pile of dirt ringed with floodwater blocking mountain highway" height="1500" width="2250" msid="96776850" hostid="261" sizebytes="752770"></div>Though climate change isn't necessarily causing California's drought, it's probably contributing to it, as rising temperatures dry out soil and vegetation. Scientists expect droughts to become more common and more intense as global temperatures continue to rise in the coming years, according to the latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/" rel=" nofollow">report</a> from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.At the same time, California's wet season is becoming wetter and more violent.<h2>Atmospheric rivers can dump more rain as temperatures rise</h2><div type="image" title="silver car sitting on the hood of a black car in standing water in a field" height="1500" width="2250" msid="96776851" hostid="261" sizebytes="289880"></div>A basic rule of thermodynamics is driving more severe rainfall events all over the world: Warmer air has a greater capacity to carry water vapor.For every temperature increase of 1 degree Fahrenheit, the atmosphere gains 4% more water-carrying capacity. So as the planet warms, it exponentially raises the ceiling for how much water an atmospheric river can carry and dump on California."We can't even really get used to the rate of change. We need to get used to an increasing rate of change," Swain said, comparing the exponential rise to compound interest in a bank account.<div type="image" title="fallen trees block street and entrance to large white library building" height="1500" width="2250" msid="96776853" hostid="261" sizebytes="397766"></div>Already, average summer temperatures in California have risen 3 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the <a href="https://scripps.ucsd.edu/research/climate-change-resources/faq-climate-change-california">Scripps Institution of Oceanography</a>. Researchers there <a href="https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/atmospheric-rivers-become-even-more-dominant-source-california-water-resources-and-flooding">forecast</a> that atmospheric rivers are strengthening and becoming the dominant source of precipitation in the state.California's rainfall is likely to come in fewer, more dramatic bursts, disrupting extended dry periods.That means the cost of flood damages from atmospheric rivers could triple by the end of the century if humans don't reel in greenhouse-gas emissions, according to <a href="https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/climate-change-projected-increase-atmospheric-river-flood-damages-united-states#:~:text=Atmospheric%20rivers%20(ARs)%20are%20long,tropics%20to%20the%20mid%20latitudes." target="_blank" rel="noopener">another Scripps study</a>."It's not too late to limit the risk," Tom Corringham, a climate economist who led the study, said in a press release in August. "Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could significantly reduce projected damages."<h2>Weather whiplash is here to stay, and it will probably get more severe</h2><div type="image" title="man dumps bucket of brown water onto flooded street through shop doorway" height="1500" width="1999" msid="96776855" hostid="261" sizebytes="168754"></div>California's mid-drought deluge is just an example of a global trend: Normal weather patterns are getting more extreme, and weather whiplash is the new norm.These violent swings between dry and wet events are projected to happen more frequently and grow more severe in the coming decades, especially if emissions continue to rise.<a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aca3b9/pdf">Three</a> <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL100659" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent</a> <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL099582">studies</a> show that increasing drought-flood whiplash is more than a projected future. In California, it's already here, and scientists can see it happening in their data."As recently as a few years ago, it was sort of a prediction," Swain said. "Now we're starting to see it as a reality."

California's sudden jump from withering drought to violent floods is a warning for the whole world

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Mt. Fluchthorn's tallest peak, on the Swiss-Austrian border, collapsed in June.</li><li>Experts say peaks in the European Alps and Southern Alps of New Zealand are at risk of collapse, too.</li></ul>On June 11, the main peak of Mt. Fluchthorn, on the border of Austria and Switzerland, collapsed without warning.Roughly 3.5 million cubic feet of earth tumbled down, filling the valley below with 40 Olympic swimming pools' worth of rocks, mud, and dirt, <a href="https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/climate-change-causes-a-mountain-peak-frozen-for-thousands-of-years-to-collapse" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LiveScience</a> reported. While no people got hurt, a religious <a href="https://www.euronews.com/video/2023/06/12/watch-peak-of-austrias-fluchthorn-mountain-collapses-in-massive-mudslide" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cross marking the summit</a> was destroyed.Fluchthorn had three peaks, and the main, southern one used to be the tallest. With the south peak collapsed, the middle peak is the new summit at 11,145 feet — the <a href="https://www.tyrol.tl/en/highlights/nature-and-landscape/mountains/silvretta-alps/#:~:text=The%20largest%20part%20of%20the,known%20with%20alpinists%20and%20tourists." target="_blank" rel="noopener">second-highest summit</a> in the Silvretta Alps.Overall, Mt. Fluchthorn is 60 feet shorter than it was earlier this year, per LiveScience.<h2>The problem with permafrost</h2>Why did the peak collapse? Well, like many mountains in the far north, Fluchthorn had a lot of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/forty-six-thousand-year-old-worm-found-siberian-permafrost-brought-back-to-life-2023-7">permafrost</a> — a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/effects-of-melting-permafrost-ancient-viruses-carbon-2017-7">permanent layer of ice and dirt</a> under the mountain's surface. "Permafrost is important because frozen water within the ground holds the ground surface together and prevents it from moving. But <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ancient-cave-bear-carcass-siberia-permafrost-intact-organs-nose-2020-9">when that ice melts</a>, the liquid water can flow away. The ground <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/methane-bubbles-siberian-permafrost-climate-change-2016-7">surface becomes less stable</a> and can move, often very quickly," said <a href="https://wits.academia.edu/JasperKnight" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jasper Knight</a>, a geoscientist at the University of Witwatersrand in South Africa.When a big chunk of mountain moves quickly, like with the mudslide at Fluchthorn, that's called a mass movement."Global warming is causing the permafrost to melt, which is the trigger for these mass movement events to take place," Knight said.Across the world, mountains with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-warming-is-unlocking-carbon-stores-long-locked-in-permafrost-2015-10">permafrost melt</a> have shown <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">larger and more frequent landslides</a>, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported. Research on <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969717317588" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rockfalls in the Alps</a> suggests <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/heat-waves-are-dominating-summer-and-its-not-abnormal-anymore-2022-7">summer heat waves</a> are a common trigger for melting permafrost.<div type="image" title="A view of the partially collapsed Fluchthorn mountain." height="683" width="1024" msid="102452410" hostid="261" sizebytes="80412"></div>But <a href="https://www.insider.com/summer-2023-heat-wave-tracker-temperature-records-2023-5">warming temperatures due to climate change</a> affect more than permafrost. The surface layer of ice and snow can melt, too, and cause flooding and mudslides. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retreating-arctic-glaciers-are-triggering-the-release-of-ancient-methane-2023-7">Melting glaciers</a> can also cause mass movements, when mountains lose the ice that was propping up its sides for years on end, per the IPCC.<h2>Which mountains are at risk?</h2>Scientists have a hard time predicting when a specific mountain will have its next <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dozen-people-missing-after-landslide-italian-coast-2022-11">landslide</a> or <a href="https://www.insider.com/hiker-killed-2-others-injured-in-rock-fall-in-austrian-alps-2019-9">rockfall</a>. But they can track global patterns and determine which mountain ranges have more risk.Mass movements are most common in steep mountains where glaciers are rapidly retreating, Knight said. Mountains meeting those criteria are particularly common in the European Alps and the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-mountains-in-the-world-2018-4">Southern Alps of New Zealand</a>, he added.<div type="image" title="Hikers walk through a swing bridge in the Hooker Valley track at in the South Island, New Zealand." height="683" width="1024" msid="102452414" hostid="261" sizebytes="114564"></div>When a mass movement occurs, others are likely to follow."As mountains get smaller, they reduce pressure on the surrounding slopes, and this is often the trigger for mass movements," Knight said.Knight added that sometimes rock falls and landslides can buttress a mountain's base and make it more stable. But they usually make a mountain's slope more <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mount-everest-base-camp-to-move-due-to-climate-change-2022-6">sensitive to environmental changes</a>. A mountain like Fluchthorn that has had mass movements in the past is more likely to have them again.<h2>The human element</h2>Across the globe, over <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">670 million people</a> live in high-mountain areas, per the IPCC. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indigenous-communities-climate-justice-cop26-glasgow-2021-11">Climate change</a> puts their lives in danger from mudslides, landslides, rockfalls, and more.Mass movements can also increase the risk of blocked roads, damaged farmland, and <a href="https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2022/em/d1em00550b/unauth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mercury contamination</a> in local bodies of water. These dangers <a href="https://www.fao.org/mountain-partnership/database-of-indigenous-peoples-and-local-communities-living-in-mountain-areas/es/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disproportionately impact indigenous communities</a>.<div type="image" title="Devotees climb up the skirts of the Sinakara Mount." height="712" width="1024" msid="102452417" hostid="261" sizebytes="130382"></div>Human behavior can make a mountain more or less sensitive to climate change. Insider spoke with Alejandro Argumedo and Tammy Stenner from <a href="https://www.andes.org.pe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Asociación ANDES (Peru)</a>, an organization that protects biodiversity in the Andes while advocating for indigenous rights.Argumedo and Stenner said Andean indigenous peoples have an in-depth system of traditional knowledge to predict and cope with extreme weather conditions on the mountainside.One strategy they use are agricultural terraces — step-like tiers of farmland set along the mountain's slope — that "prevent soil erosion and landslides," Argumedo said.He added that for the terrace strategy to work, the top of the mountain needs natural pasture and native tree species to act as sponges for extra water. The Stone Village in Yunnan, China, has successfully practiced a similar water management system for <a href="https://www.iied.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/migrate/G04055.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1,300 years</a>.<div type="image" title="Ancient agricultural terraces in Peru." height="681" width="1024" msid="102452419" hostid="261" sizebytes="96784"></div>But these techniques only work when they're used. Argumedo and Stenner said the Peruvian government has refused to recognize or invest in traditional ecology management strategies."Landslides happen because mountain ecosystems are degraded and terraces are abandoned," Argumedo said. He added that mining and road building have further destabilized the mountain environments.<h2>The future</h2>As climate change accelerates, mountain environments change more quickly, as well. Knight predicts mass movements will become more common in the next decade.But the situation isn't hopeless. Scientists believe if we work now to slow down climate change and prevent mountain degradation, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-6/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we can still stop the worst outcomes</a> from happening and help protect the planet's mountains and the communities that live near them.

Mountains are collapsing: A Swiss mountain peak fell apart, sending 3.5 million cubic feet of rock into the valley below. Scientists warn climate change could make more mountains crumble.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Jan. 6 and Watergate hearings have "some very important" things in common, a Nixon expert said.</li><li>Historian Ken Hughes told Insider both hearings helped convince a sect of the public of a president's guilt.</li></ul>Nearly 50 years after the Watergate hearings captured the nation's attention, history is seemingly repeating itself as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/live-january-6-committee-public-hearing-trump-insurrection-2022-6">Congress presents the American public with a trove of evidence</a> and bombshell testimony in service of proving a Republican president's guilt.The inciting scandals couldn't be more different: <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/1970s/watergate">A break-in at the Democratic National Committee</a> versus an <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/capitol-hill-still-dealing-with-fallout-january-6-attack-insurrection-2021-10">insurrection at the US Capitol.</a> The lead characters look dissimilar, too: A purely political president seeking to cover up illicit actions and a desperate chief <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-said-he-and-capitol-rioters-wanted-same-thing-book-2021-7">trying to cling to power</a>.But for all their contrasts, the congressional hearings stemming from these separate political crises have some stark similarities.<a href="https://millercenter.org/experts/ken-hughes">Ken Hughes</a>, a historian and Watergate expert at the University of Virginia's Miller Center spoke to Insider this week, offering a nuanced analysis of two primetime presentations separated by five decades. This interview has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.As you've been watching these January 6 hearings, have you pinpointed any obvious comparisons or similarities between these hearings and the Watergate hearings? Surprisingly, contrary to what it might seem like at first glance, I think the two sets of hearings have some very important things in common. The Watergate hearings and the January 6 committee hearings convinced the majority, that is to say, the left of center and the center, that the president was guilty of wrongdoing. At the same time, the right, back during the Nixon administration, and today, remains convinced that this is all just liberal, Democratic bias, and liberal media bias. That was the case in the '70s. I think it's the case now. People have remarked on how different the outcomes were. Nixon, ultimately, felt he had to resign. Otherwise, he would be impeached and convicted in the Senate. The difference really is more of geographical polarization.When you say geographical polarization, do you mean, literally, where people are polarized within the country?Yep. When Nixon was president, a sizable number of Republicans in the House and the Senate had to worry when they went to face the voters in November that they would have to be accountable to the majority. They were in states that Democrats and Republicans were both competitive in and congressional districts in which both parties were competitive. What happened in 1974 is that before the Republican primaries were over, congressional Republicans supported the Republican president because, otherwise, they would lose the support of Republican voters. They would be primaried. They would get a challenge from the right, and they would lose their jobs. That's the position that most congressional Republicans find themselves in today if they don't support ex-President Trump. If they don't support defeated President Trump, they will get primary challenges, and they'll lose their jobs. The difference was, back then, the states and the congressional districts were competitive enough so that congressional Republicans, once they got past their primaries, had to worry about losing their jobs because the majority, the left and the middle, would vote them out of office for supporting President Nixon.Today, Republicans in Congress are either from red states, or from red congressional districts, or gerrymandered congressional districts that insulate them from the majority. They realize that they can keep their jobs as long as they keep a majority of the right on their side. To keep the majority of the right on their side, they calculate that they have to stick with Donald Trump.As a result, the mechanisms that kept a president from abusing power 50 years ago are not functioning. One faction of American politics — the right wing — realizes that it can be in control of the White House through a majority in the Electoral College. It can gain control of the Senate, and it can gain control of the House, and gain control of the Supreme Court without ever winning a majority of the voters. That puts us in a much more dangerous position now than we were 50 years ago because democracy can fail.<div type="image" title="A black and white photo of lawmakers during the Watergate Committee hearings." height="1446" width="2893" msid="93199061" hostid="261" sizebytes="329056"></div>You said one of the ways in which the Watergate and January 6 hearings have been similar is that they've successfully convinced a portion of the population that the president was guilty of wrongdoing. Was the country already divided on whether they believed Nixon deserved blame heading into the hearings? Or did the hearings do the majority of the work in convincing people of that?In 1972, when the Watergate break-in took place, Americans did consider it serious. They did condemn breaking into the opposing party's headquarters, but they thought Richard Nixon had nothing to do with it. I actually think they were right. I think Nixon didn't know about the Watergate break-in in advance. But then he found out that the people who organized the break-in were G. Gordon Liddy and E. Howard Hunt, people he had hired a year before when he wanted someone to break into the Brookings Institution, which is a Washington think tank that he thought had classified material.This remained hidden, but Nixon still feared that it would come to light. The reason Nixon ordered the Watergate cover-up was to protect himself. If the FBI had an unobstructed investigation of Hunt and Liddy, it would lead back to a crime that Nixon committed when he put together the group that was known as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1973/07/22/archives/the-plumbers.html">the Plumbers</a>, in order to break into Brookings and do other political tasks, both illegal and legal, that Nixon wanted done. When he created the Plumbers to break into Brookings, that was a crime. It was a conspiracy to commit burglary, and it was a crime that anyone could understand. I mean, it wasn't like obstruction of justice, which is never really clear. It was simple.Now, when the Watergate hearings began in '73, that's when all the related abuses of power really started to come out. People who had been involved in the Nixon administration testified about what they were up to, and what they were doing. It became clear to most people in 1973 or 1974, that Nixon had indeed abused the powers of his office for political gain. That's another similarity that we see with these hearings — the fact that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/january-6-committee-hearings-witnesses-marc-short-jeff-rosen-2022-6">the people testifying worked in the Republican president's White House.</a> They were supporters of the president, and in most cases, would vote for him again. The fact that the evidence comes from Republicans is very, very convincing to the majority. It's the rule: "If your own man says so." That's sort of like the Republican side admitting what was going on. That's a similarity between Watergate and the January 6 committee hearings: the importance of Republican testimony to establishing the guilt of a Republican president.In what ways were Nixon and Trump similar or different in their respective responses to these sprawling investigations into their conduct?Nixon was capable of hiding what Trump is incapable of concealing. Nixon was a very shrewd, a very well-practiced politician. He had been aiming for the presidency since his young adulthood, if not his childhood. He was very, very disciplined. He was a master strategist. Trump has very obvious political strengths. He is a charismatic speaker who really connects with the Republican base. There's this very strong, emotional appeal that he makes, but to only a minority of voters. Nixon was a much more disciplined, calculating, strategic politician. He was capable of realigning the country from one where the Democrats had a kind of a ruling coalition. Donald Trump is overall, strategically, a very weak candidate. He's not able to attract a majority. In fact, he polarizes the majority against him. He doesn't have even the normal discipline of a Republican candidate running for state assembly, or state Senate. While he's got an incredibly strong connection to the Republican base, he's not able to reach out beyond that particularly well.What role did Nixon's Congress play in affecting the ultimate outcome of the hearings? Are you able to draw any comparisons to Trump and the Congress we see now leading these present-day hearings?In both cases, the Democratic Congress took the lead. It was a Democratic House, a Democratic Senate. The Watergate Committee's majority was Democratic, just as the January 6 committee's is Democratic. In the Watergate era, Republicans at least took part in the investigations. They wanted to demonstrate to the public that they did take corruption in government seriously, they took law-breaking seriously. Again, that was, in part, because they depended for their jobs, on persuading not just the right, but the American center. The center did not have a vested interest in electing Republicans. The center had a vested interest in preserving democracy and having honest non-corrupt government. Today, the Congressional Republicans are accountable mainly to their base, and very rarely to the middle. Most of them are insulated from democratic accountability.<div type="image" title="Republican Reps. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois at a January 6 committee hearing on December 1, 2021." height="1000" width="2000" msid="93199062" hostid="261" sizebytes="147504"></div>So, in the '70s, we didn't really see the sort of animosity from the Republican lawmakers that we see today, where nearly all of them said they <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kevin-mccarthy-threat-committee-assignments-january-6-commission-house-leader-2021-7">didn't want anything to do with the Jan. 6 investigation?</a>Right. In the '70s, the Republicans in Congress realized that they at least had to act like they were willing to hold the president accountable, even if at first, they didn't want to do it. They did take steps. I mean, they supported subpoenaing Nixon's tapes. That was an important thing that they did. The difference was that back then, once the Republican primaries were over, congressional Republicans really had to focus on appealing to the middle in order to win the November elections. Otherwise, Democrats would take their jobs.Now, most congressional Republicans never have to worry about that. Their only concern is whether they hold onto their base. We have a situation where a very sizable minority can gain control of the majority of offices in both houses of Congress, and can gain a majority in the electoral college, without ever getting a majority of the popular vote, and can gain a majority on the Supreme Court, despite not winning the majority of the popular vote, only winning it once in the last couple of decades.The Jan. 6 hearings are taking place long after Trump was defeated, but the Watergate hearings were happening while Nixon was the sitting president. What effect did that have?For a while, it was the only thing people talked about. I mean, it was a much different media environment. As you know, there were only three networks on broadcast television. When they started doing gavel-to-gavel coverage of the Watergate hearings, the details of Nixon's abuses of power just became very familiar to most people. It was impossible for people to ignore it. Today, we've got many, many alternatives so it's much harder to get people's attention for long, involved congressional hearings. I think, actually, the January 6 committee has done an excellent job of giving focused hearings and presentations of information, and making sure that it's not just telling a story. It's providing evidence and letting people see, and hear, and read, for themselves what was being said and written in secret at the time. Despite the structural handicaps, despite the difficulty of gaining mass attention to very complex aspects of government, I think they're doing about as well as it can be done.Why did Nixon finally decide to resign? Was there any sense of legitimate shame or wanting to do right by the country? Or had he just accepted his fate?He would've stayed in office as long as he could. That meant as long as he had the support of a sufficient number of congressional Republicans. What happened, with the release of the <a href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/secret-white-house-tapes/smoking-gun">"Smoking Gun" tape</a> in August 1974, was that congressional Republicans realized their primaries were behind them. They no longer had to worry about losing their jobs to primary challenges. They had to worry about losing their jobs to the outrage of the majority in November because the middle and the left were convinced by the evidence that Nixon was guilty of high crimes and misdemeanors. So, congressional Republicans told Nixon, "You're going to get impeached. If there's a Senate trial, we're not sure you're going to get 34 votes. We're not sure you're going to get 20."<div type="image" title="A black and white photo of Richard Nixon waving in front of a helicopter." height="1500" width="3000" msid="93199063" hostid="261" sizebytes="577326"></div>How are the Watergate hearings remembered when it comes to the impact they had on the nation? What legacy did they set?The Watergate hearings had a positive and a negative impact. The positive impact was that people realized that no one is above the law in America, that even the president of the United States, the most powerful public official in America, can be held accountable to the people and to the law, and has to obey the law, and comply with subpoenas. The Supreme Court ruled during these Watergate hearings that President Nixon did have to turn over evidence, his tapes, to the special prosecutor. That was a very important moment in the history of our democracy. Otherwise, without that evidence, Nixon might have remained in office to complete his entire second term. Without those tapes, people might not have been convinced that Nixon was guilty.At the same time, while the Watergate hearings, and the way Watergate played out, demonstrated that our democracy can survive and can function, it also showed that our democracy is vulnerable to abuses of power by unethical presidents. While it's possible to hold a president accountable and make a president uphold the law, it's also possible for a president to abuse power, and get away with it for a very long time. A lot of things had to go right in order for Nixon to be held accountable. You had heroic efforts by journalists, by the Judiciary, which asserted and demonstrated its independence as its own branch of government, by members of Congress who had a lot to lose by taking on a president, who in 1972, won an historic landslide. At the same time, we saw that a large political faction, the right wing, just refused to accept the evidence of their senses. They convinced themselves that the Republican president was the victim of liberal media bias, of liberal democratic witch hunting in Congress. They basically convinced themselves of conspiracy theories. That, we see continuing to today. The difference is that back then, Congress remained accountable to the majority of voters. Today, it's just barely. The Republicans could very easily take control of Congress in the midterm elections of this year, without coming anywhere near to having a majority of the voter's support. Donald Trump could win in 2024 as he won in 2016, without getting a majority of the voters.We are in a precarious position, where what's at stake in elections isn't merely what policies will be enacted, but what's at stake is: Will we have majority of rule? Will we remain a Republic, in fact, as well as in name? We have a lot of work to do just to preserve our heritage.

A historian compares the Jan. 6 hearings to the Watergate ones and warns the US is in a 'much more dangerous position now'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Intermittent heavy rains have slowed <keyword id="28480" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="rescue">rescue</keyword> efforts in a Japanese town hit by a landslide.</li><li>The rains could trigger a second mudslide as more than 1,000 rescuers search for survivors.</li><li>Three people have died and 150 are still missing.</li></ul>Heavy rain is hampering a rescue operation in the Japanese hot spring resort town of Atami after a landslide smashed through the area on Saturday, killing three people and destroying more than 130 homes so far.Around 1,100 firefighters, police, and Self-Defense Forces personnel have been clearing mud from the town in their search for nearly 150 unaccounted people, <a href="https://japantoday.com/category/national/Rain-risk-of-another-calamity-hamper-search-for-mudslide-victims-in-Atami">reported Japan Today.</a>The rescuers are working in a race against time. Atami mayor Sakae Saito told members of the local task force that "the first 72 hours (after the incident) are crucial," <a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/07/672f64060f35-search-continues-for-20-missing-in-rain-triggered-mudslide.html?phrase=Kim&amp;words=rds=">according to Kyodo News.</a>However, the intermittent rains threaten to cause a second mudslide. The initial disaster was caused by a deluge of 22 inches of rainfall - more than a month's worth of precipitation - over several days, sending 3.5 million cubic feet of soil tearing through Atami at around 10:30 a.m. on Saturday, reported Kyodo <keyword id="6355005" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="news">News</keyword>.The torrential rains have made the situation "unpredictable," Hiroki Onuma, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/three-dead-113-missing-japan-after-heavy-rains-trigger-landslides-2021-07-05/">a local government spokesperson, told Reuters.</a>Atami, about 60 miles southwest of Tokyo, is home to around 36,000 people and several hot spring resorts.Forecasts by the <keyword id="6355311" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="japan">Japan</keyword> Meteorological Agency <a href="https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#5/34.488/137.021/&amp;contents=forecast&amp;lang=en;lang=en">said heavy rains are expected to continue</a> over the next few days and warned the public to be vigilant of more mudslides and flooding, per Japan Today.Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has instructed relevant cabinet ministers to work on rescue efforts with local authorities to watch carefully for a second disaster, the outlet said.

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A historian compares the Jan. 6 hearings to the Watergate ones and warns the US is in a 'much more dangerous position now'

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