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As the <keyword id="19938590" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="NDA" source="keywords">NDA</keyword> is all set to form the government, <keyword id="19949381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Fitch-Ratings" source="keywords">Fitch Ratings</keyword> on Thursday said <keyword id="21935526" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="coalition-politics" source="keywords">coalition politics</keyword> and a <keyword id="21957811" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="weakened-mandate" source="Orion">weakened mandate</keyword> could make it challenging to pass legislations on ambitious reforms. "We believe major reforms to land and labour laws will remain on the new government's agenda as it seeks to enhance India's manufacturing sector, but these have long been contentious and the NDA's weaker mandate will complicate their passage further. This could reduce the potential upside to India's medium-term growth prospects," <keyword id="19950093" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fitch" source="keywords">Fitch</keyword> said in a statement. The <keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bjp" source="keywords">BJP</keyword> fell short of a single-party majority in the 543-seat lower house of parliament for the first time since its latest period in government that began in 2014. But Fitch expects it to secure enough support from allied parties in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to form a government with Narendra Modi remaining Prime Minister. The outcome should support broad policy continuity, with the government continuing to prioritise infrastructure capex, improvements to the business environment, and gradual fiscal consolidation, Fitch Ratings said. "However, coalition politics and a weakened mandate could make it challenging to pass legislation on the more ambitious parts of the <keyword id="21957445" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-reform" source="keywords">government reform</keyword> agenda," it said in a detailed note post the Lok Sabha election results which were announced late on Tuesday. The NDA appears set to retain power with a narrower majority after India's recent election, following a weaker performance by its dominant member, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). "We do not think that the government's losses at the ballot box will lead to substantial policy adjustments, but the post-election budget in July should provide greater clarity on its economic reform priorities and fiscal plans over the coming five years," Fitch said. It said implementation of <keyword id="20404815" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-reforms" source="keywords">economic reforms</keyword> during the first two NDA terms was mixed, but some positive measures were passed including the Goods and Services Tax (GST) law and Bankruptcy Code in 2016. The government also increased public infrastructure investment significantly, helping to put India among the fastest-growing major economies in recent years, with real GDP growth reaching 8.2 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 2024 (FY24). Fitch expects growth to remain rapid at 7 per cent in current fiscal (April-March). "We expect India's medium-term growth performance to remain around our trend estimate of 6.2 per cent through FY28, despite the government's slimmer majority. The continued public capex drive to address infrastructure gaps, ongoing digitalisation efforts, and improved bank and corporate balance sheets - relative to the pre-pandemic situation - should facilitate a strong outlook for private investment," Fitch said. The rating agency expects the Production-Linked Incentives (PLI) scheme to remain intact, which will help attract FDI in target sectors, such as electronics. However, private investment has not yet accelerated meaningfully, which represents a risk for the outlook. Fitch believe land and labours laws reforms will continue to advance at the state level in some parts of the country. There is also some potential for judicial reforms that would look to lower costs and speed resolution of court cases. Weaker fiscal metrics relative to peers are a significant constraint for India's sovereign rating, which we affirmed at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook in January 2024. "The next government's ability to address high fiscal deficits and reduce debt will be important considerations for the rating in the next few years. "Sustained deficit reduction, particularly if underpinned by durable revenue-raising reforms, would be positive for India's sovereign rating fundamentals over the medium term," Fitch added. The government has improved its record on achieving deficit targets and has advanced fiscal consolidation gradually over the past few years. We expect this focus on gradual consolidation to broadly be sustained. The FY24 budget deficit came in at 5.6 per cent of GDP, below the revised budget estimate of 5.8 per cent (which matched Fitch's estimate). Fitch expects the 5.1 per cent deficit target for FY25 to be attained, and said government's goal of reducing the deficit to 4.5 per cent of GDP in FY26 appears increasingly achievable, although the election marginally increased risks of higher spending or slippage in capex to accommodate greater social spending.

Coalition politics, weakened mandate could make passing legislations on ambitious reforms challenging: Fitch

<keyword id="20779198" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chief-Economic-Advisor" source="keywords">Chief Economic Advisor</keyword> V Anantha Nageswaran emphasized the crucial and positive role that artificial intelligence (<keyword id="19899640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AI" source="keywords">AI</keyword>) can play for the <keyword id="22505095" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-demography" source="keywords">Indian demography</keyword> and <keyword id="20278114" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="labour-force" source="keywords">labour force</keyword> during a press conference on the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> 2023-24. He noted that within the next decade, India is poised to become the world's third-largest economy and will benefit significantly from its demographic dividend. However, Nageswaran also acknowledged potential challenges posed by AI, particularly for India's <keyword id="20811086" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="business-process-outsourcing" source="keywords">Business Process Outsourcing</keyword> (BPO) sector. He stated, "The short-term challenge of generative AI could slow <keyword id="22505093" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BPO-sector-growth" source="keywords">BPO sector growth</keyword>, affecting <keyword id="21300718" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="customer-services" source="keywords">customer services</keyword>. It is possible that the jobs related to BPO will be under threat whereas AI may actually turn out to be a booster." Furthermore, Nageswaran also pointed out that the emergence of AI might reduce annual <keyword id="21420133" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="productivity-growth" source="keywords">productivity growth</keyword> by approximately 0.3 percentage points in the coming years. This indicates a potential short-term dip in productivity as industries adapt to new technologies. Despite these challenges, Nageswaran added that the long-term potential of AI is promising. The broader adoption of AI could lead to significant improvements in critical areas such as healthcare and education, thereby enhancing human capital. The economic survey presented in the Parliament by finance minister Nirmala Sithraman says in the medium term Indian economy can grow at a rate of 7 per cent. The economic survey stated, "In the medium term, the Indian economy can grow at a rate of 7 per cent plus on a sustained basis if we build on the structural reforms undertaken over the last decade. This requires a tripartite compact between the Union Government, State Governments and the private sector." Achieving a sustained growth rate of over 7 per cent will require a tripartite compact between the Union Government, State Governments, and the private sector. India's financial sector is undergoing critical transformations. During FY24, primary capital markets facilitated capital formation of Rs 10.9 lakh crore, accounting for approximately 29 per cent of the gross fixed capital formation of private and public corporates in FY23. It further adds India faces a unique blend of opportunities and challenges amid global trends such as geo-economic fragmentation, a push for self-reliance, looming climate change, the rise of technology, and limited policy space. (ANI)

AI could slow BPO sector growth: Chief Economic Advisor Nageshwaran

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Labour Party has triumphed in the UK general election.</li><li>Prime Minister Rishi Sunak conceded defeat to the Labour Party chief, Keir Starmer.</li></ul>The Tories are out, and the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/europe-teeters-far-right-uk-opposite-keir-starmer-labour-tories-2024-7">Labour Party is back in power in</a> the UK.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/keir-starmer-mentored-barack-obama-uk-election-new-prime-minister-2024-7">Keir Starmer</a> officially became Britain's new prime minister on Friday after a meeting with King Charles at Buckingham Palace.It came hours after <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/john-oliver-right-conservative-party-got-wiped-out-polls-2024-7">Rishi Sunak</a>, the Conservative Party leader, conceded defeat in Thursday's general election."The Labour Party has won this general election, and I have called Keir Starmer to congratulate him on his victory," Sunak <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-07-04/general-election-2024-uk-live-labour-tories-starmer-sunak-results-exit-poll?cursorId=66876F7D688C0000">told</a> reporters early Friday morning in the UK.<div type="image" title="King Charles speaks with Keir Starmer during an audience at Buckingham Palace." height="3472" width="4900" msid="111516343" hostid="261"></div>"The British people have delivered a sobering verdict tonight," he added. "There is much to learn and reflect on, and I take responsibility for the loss."Starmer's party obtained a landslide victory against Sunak's, winning at least 412 seats as of press time, per Bloomberg. A party needs to obtain only 326 out of the 650 seats to form a simple majority.The watershed election marks the Labour Party's stunning return to power, as it has been out of government since 2010."A mandate like this comes with a great responsibility," Starmer said in his victory speech. "The fight for trust is the battle that defines our age."Starmer also said in his victory speech that his party planned to govern as a "changed Labour Party.""I don't promise you it will be easy," he said. "Changing a country's not like flicking a switch. It's hard work. Patient work. Determined work. And we will have to get moving immediately."The rise of Reform UK split the rightwing vote, helping Labour to victory. On Truth Social, Former US President Donald Trump congratulated Reform leader Nigel Farage for his "big WIN."<h2 id="39e3481a-44db-441e-8ce5-bb39f0dfe0f9">Starmer spent more than a decade rebuilding Labour and sought advice from Obama</h2>Labour's landslide victory bucks the trend of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/europe-teeters-far-right-uk-opposite-keir-starmer-labour-tories-2024-7">far-right parties sweeping Europe</a>.Starmer, a former lawyer, joined Labour in 2015 and became the party's leader in 2020.He spent more than a decade reshaping the party and seeking guidance from world leaders on how to bring it back to power.One person who had a strong influence on Starmer was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/keir-starmer-mentored-barack-obama-uk-election-new-prime-minister-2024-7">Barack Obama</a>, who served as US president from 2009 until 2017. <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/12/barack-obama-gives-tips-to-keir-starmer-and-david-lammy-on-how-labour-can-regain-winning-ways">The Guardian</a> reported in 2021 that the pair were involved in two hours' worth of private talks where they discussed how to bring center-left parties back to power.Speaking on the "<a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/nz/podcast/keir-starmer-international-uk-labour-leader-puts-the/id1202281739?i=1000628653155">Power Play</a>" podcast in September, Starmer said he speaks to Obama frequently and sometimes seeks his political advice."It is always useful to test my ideas on people who won elections, people who've taken difficult decisions in power because that helps me think about how we might approach some of the decisions we might have to take if we do win that election," he said.Starmer also sought Obama's advice during the election campaign. Labour's David Lammy — who is said to have first introduced Obama and Starmer — told Politico's "Power Play" podcast that Obama encouraged Starmer to be more authentic and open up about his family and personal life."In terms of his leadership style, it's had an impact," political journalist Kitty Donaldson told Business Insider."Obama is quite laid back. This campaign has been more laid back than we have seen, and he seemed to enjoy going up and down the country speaking to people."

The Labour Party is back in power in the UK after 14 years

Narendra Modi, elected leader of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will take oath as <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s prime minister for a historic third term on Sunday evening at 7:15 PM. After a decade of full majority governance, Modi will now run a <keyword id="20018803" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="coalition-government" source="keywords">coalition government</keyword>, with the Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal (United) as key partners. Despite being in coalition, experts feel that there won't be much change in the new government's economic agenda. Economists believe that <keyword id="20509939" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Modi-3-0" source="keywords">Modi 3.0</keyword> will not slow down the reforms and to achieve the goal of Vikshit Bharat by 2047, <keyword id="20404815" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-reforms" source="keywords">economic reforms</keyword> and policy reviews need to be continued across multiple sectors, including infrastructure, labour, and manufacturing. These reforms are deemed essential to drive economic growth and development in India. "The oft-repeated target of becoming a developed country by 2047 requires far-reaching reforms in the factor market, opening up of the economy and infrastructure development and a thrust towards labour intensive manufacturing. In a coalition environment it may not be easy to carry out big bang reforms, but the thrust of incremental reforms should be in this direction," said M Govind Rao, Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission and former Director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. Economists have noted that spending on <keyword id="20229510" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="populist-measures" source="keywords">populist measures</keyword> will increase because of coalition politics, however, the government will continue with its focus on "<keyword id="20054650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Made-In-India" source="keywords">Made In India</keyword>" reforms. Sectors like infrastructure and manufacturing will remain the priority of the government. "There's likely to be a swerve towards greater populist spending and some commitment of resources to states of alliance partners is also likely. But India's public finances are in relatively robust health and to be augmented by significant reserves from the RBI. India's infrastructure spending will continue apace but perhaps with greater private sector participation. Expenditure on defence modernisation and indigenisation will also undoubtedly continue" said Gautam Sen, retired political economist London School of Economics and author, Former member of the Indo-UK Roundtable and Senior Consultant UNDP. The full budget expected to be announced in July, will reflect the economic agenda of Modi 3.0. Many economists expect the Budget will likely see a spurt in welfare and support schemes mainly for farmers and poor. The Budget will indicate the policy priorities for the new coalition government and decide the growth trajectory for the next five years, On the economic front, economists have cautioned the government about the potential setbacks from a sluggish global economy and geopolitical crisis. "One constraint remains the sluggish world economy, which could suffer worse setbacks next year, though Indian growth has risen despite it. The unknown is the impact of external shocks of intensifying wars and uncertainty over energy prices" added Sen. Meanwhile, in a significant boost to the start of Modi 3.0, the Reserve Bank of India on June 7 revised upwards the <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> projection for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent on rising private consumption and revival of demand in rural areas. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) placed India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24.

Economists expect big bang reforms to continue under Modi 3.0

New Delhi [India], June 5 (ANI): The Bharatiya Janata Party (<keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bjp" source="keywords">BJP</keyword>)-led National Democratic Alliance (<keyword id="19938590" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDA" source="keywords">NDA</keyword>) secured a majority in the general elections, securing a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This victory indicates continuity in policy, particularly in <keyword id="21785272" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="infrastructure-spending" source="keywords">infrastructure spending</keyword> and boosting domestic manufacturing, which are expected to support robust <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword>. However, the NDA's slim margin of victory and the BJP's loss of an outright majority in parliament may slow down more extensive economic and fiscal reforms, potentially impeding <keyword id="20101140" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-consolidation" source="keywords">fiscal consolidation</keyword> efforts. In fiscal 2023-24, India's real GDP accelerated to 8.2 per cent from 7.0 per cent the previous year, driven by significant gains in gross fixed capital formation as the government's infrastructure programs gained momentum, even as private consumption remained subdued. <keyword id="20227907" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Moodys" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Moody's" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Moody's">Moody's</keyword> projects India's economic strength to continue, with an anticipated real <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> of around 7 per cent over the three-year period from fiscal 2023-24 to 2025-26. This growth is expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure development and digitalization efforts. Despite this outlook, structural weaknesses pose risks to long-term growth potential. High youth unemployment and low productivity growth in the agriculture sector constrain economic expansion. The agricultural sector's modernization has been stalled by political challenges, as evidenced by the repeal of key reforms in 2021 following widespread farmer protests. Additionally, gains in manufacturing have been uneven, limiting labour force diversification away from agriculture, which still accounts for 40 per cent of total employment. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have declined over the past three years, despite a favourable geopolitical climate amid US-China tensions. This trend suggests persistent constraints within India's investment climate. To address these challenges, further structural reforms and enhanced implementation of existing initiatives, such as the production-linked incentive schemes to promote manufacturing, calibrated liberalisation of cross-border trade, and reconsideration of labour reforms, are necessary. The government's focus on fiscal consolidation is expected to continue, but significant improvements in debt ratios and interest servicing have yet to be realised. Since the trough in fiscal 2020-21, the central government's deficit has likely narrowed for three consecutive years. The interim budget for fiscal 2024-25 projects a deficit of around 5 per cent of GDP, aiming for a 4.5 per cent deficit by fiscal 2025-26. However, India's fiscal consolidation post-pandemic has not outpaced other emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, and its fiscal and debt metrics remain weaker than those of Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and other Baa-rated peers globally. India's general government debt is projected to stabilise above 80 per cent of GDP over the next three years, compared to 70.5 per cent in fiscal 2018-19. General government interest payments are forecast to fall to around 24 per cent of general government revenue over the next two years, down from over 28 per cent in fiscal 2020-21, but still higher than the pre-pandemic ratio of less than 23 per cent. While increased budgetary allocations for infrastructure indicate an improvement in spending quality, debt servicing remains a significant portion of expenditure, reflecting ongoing constraints on fiscal flexibility. This situation underscores the need for the incoming government to balance fiscal consolidation with growth-supportive measures. The upcoming final budget for the fiscal year ending March 2025 will provide further insights into India's fiscal policy direction through 2029. As the Modi administration embarks on its third term, the focus will likely remain on sustaining economic growth while addressing the persistent <keyword id="21500054" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-challenges" source="keywords">fiscal challenges</keyword> that hinder India's long-term economic potential.

Modi 3.0 will offer policy continuity, but BJP's loss of outright majority may slow down fiscal reforms: Moody's

New Delhi, Jun 14 () Rating agency S&amp;P will give credence to reforms in agriculture and labour market as well as easing of bad loan stress of banking sector while deciding future rating action on India, a senior official has said. S&amp;P Director &amp; Lead Analyst Sovereign &amp; IPF Ratings APAC Andrew Wood also said return of insolvency provision under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), which was suspended for at least six months, and stronger regulator framework would be important in improving the health of Indian banks. Last week, S&amp;P Global Ratings had retained India's rating at lowest investment grade 'BBB-' for 13th year in a row, saying risks to India's long-term growth rate are rising, ongoing economic reforms, if executed well, should keep the country's growth rate ahead of peers. To a query on what specific reforms the rating agency would look at while determining the future rating action, Wood on Friday said the rating agency would give credence to reforms to domestic agriculture sector, liberalisation of labour market thereby job creation in manufacturing sector, improvement in infrastructure and business friendly foreign investment policy. "The reforms that we will give credence to is reforms in agriculture sector, into domestic markets. Those have been introduced and that's somewhat path breaking in history of India. It would help address the supply side bottlenecks that have cropped up in the economy in the past as well as to make agriculture sector more efficient," Wood said. He, however, emphasised on the need to create jobs in the manufacturing sector. "In order to achieve that labour market reforms are going to be important. Government appears to be making some headway in this issue." Stating that in India, states decide on labour laws and related reforms, Wood said, "But the BJP Government has a strong mandate and appears to be pushing harder on the states to get this done. We would be looking at liberalisation of labour markets further". Efforts to bring in foreign capital, private sector in infrastructure and improving business environment through that route is going to be very crucial, he said, adding attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) is also very important. With regard to financial sector, Wood said it is a specific weakness for India and IBC was "very constructive" in terms of starting to address issues and leading to more prudence in lending by PSBs. Also fund injection into public sector banks have led to improvements in their capital position over past few years, he said. "But more work is probably needed here." The government earlier this month promulgated an ordinance to amend the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) whereby fresh insolvency proceedings will not be initiated for at least six months starting from March 25 amid the coronavirus pandemic. Default on repayments from March 25, the day when the nationwide lockdown began to curb coronavirus infections, would not be considered for initiating insolvency proceedings for at least six months. "IBC which has been suspended for now for 6-12 months but return and continued implementation of stronger regulatory framework is important for health of sector. "It is not often in an economy that we see in India 10 years have been running at full-stream but banking sector remains weak for long period of time. So, it's going to be very crucial that banking sector problems are addressed in India," Wood added. S&amp;P Global Ratings has projected Indian to shrink by 5 per cent in current fiscal but growth is expected to bounce back to 8.5 per cent next fiscal. India's economic growth potential in medium and long-term is 6.5-7 per cent but reforms are critical for the country to get back to recovery after deep shock this year, it has said. JD BAL BAL

S&P to weigh labour, agri market reforms, improvement in financial sector for future ratings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A Parliamentary by-election is being held in Wakefield, West Yorkshire, in the north of England.</li><li>Insider spoke to locals, candidates, and campaigners in the city on how the contest is going.</li></ul>A spectre is haunting the Conservative Party's campaign in Wakefield—the spectre of a Jacobean figure in a tall conical straw hat that haunts the Old Vicarage in Wakefield where Tory headquarters are, if local tales are to be believed.Eric, 72, is a volunteer in a small bookshop next to the Conservative Party's campaign office. He's trying to use the Parliamentary by-election to drum up business and has placed a number of political biographies in the window that looks onto the Tory office. There's <keyword id="11911533" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="boris-johnson" source="Orion">Boris Johnson</keyword>'s "The Churchill Factor" as well as Churchill's own autobiography, plus his "A History of the English-Speaking Peoples", Michael Heseltine's autobiography, and history books on Gladstone.<div type="image" title="Books in a window in Wakefield" height="1200" width="2400" msid="92134222" hostid="261"></div>But the move hasn't attracted any business from the volunteers, canvassers, and Tory MPs shuffling in to try and support Nadeem Ahmed's campaign to hold Wakefield for the <keyword id="12003099" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="conservatives" source="Orion">Conservatives</keyword>, after the incumbent Imran Ahmad Khan resigned following his conviction for sexually assaulting a teenage boy. The Christian Peoples Alliance candidate, Paul Bickerdike, raised eyebrows after putting "I have never sexually assaulted anyone" on his election leaflets and <a href="https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/wakefield-election-candidate-paul-bickerdale-24079524">telling the media</a> "I do look at children but I look at children in a proper way, not the way that the previous MP was looking at children." Eric reckons this should "go without saying".Tory candidate Ahmed, a local councillor since 2006, is a "pleasant bloke", Eric tells Insider, who is thinking of voting Conservative in the by-election if he can get down to the polling station. "My dad used to say only Conservatives and Communists vote when it rains." <div type="image" title="Conservative HQ in Wakefield" height="2008" width="2678" msid="92134223" hostid="261"></div>Eric voted for Johnson's party in the December 2019 by-election, but has voted <keyword id="12077443" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="labour" source="Orion">Labour</keyword> before. Keir Starmer is "down to earth and ordinary", but he finds Johnson to be "genuinely honest", adding "I am a very forgiving" person.During an interview with Insider, Ahmed also speaks of the forgiving nature of Wakefield's voters, saying he would have backed Johnson in the vote of confidence. "I would have voted to respect democracy, which is to keep Boris Johnson to fulfil his mandate," he says."What do we do as human beings, if somebody makes a mistake? If they confess their mistake, they apologise for the mistake, they say what was wrong, they say I'm going to correct this, sort my office out, which he's done."Despite the woes Johnson's premiership has faced, they don't come up for Eric, who is more concerned at what he says are plans by the Conservatives locally as part of regeneration work to Wakefield's city centre. Among the casualties would be the Old Vicarage, with the bookshop and the Conservatives' own offices, and its tombstone-lined secret tunnel leading from the basement, under the road, and to the Masonic Lodge opposite. The Wakefield Labour Club's "Red Shed" is also next to the Old Vicarage, albeit not connected by an underground passageway.A week after the Platinum Jubilee celebrations, Labour's campaign headquarters elsewhere in Wakefield is still decked out with Union Jack bunting and a flag above the door. Simon Lightwood, the party's candidate, is not available for an interview, but Lou Haigh MP, the shadow transport secretary who is responsible for helping to shape the campaign's narrative, says Labour are feeling confident about the by-election.<div type="image" title="Labour headquarters in Wakefield" height="1555" width="2073" msid="92134224" hostid="261"></div>She casts doubt on polling that predicts a lead of 20% for Labour, saying Labour's data is suggesting closer to an 8 or 9 point lead.Haigh says the election is "make or break" for British <keyword id="11893346" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="politics" source="Orion">politics</keyword>. "We're putting Boris Johnson on the ballot paper," she says, although declines to say what the ramifications could be for Labour and Starmer's leadership should they lose the contest. "I'm not going to countenance the Labour party losing this by-election."Haigh says the Conservatives have recently realised they have "an awful lot to lose, and the stakes are much higher for them than they are for us". She adds: "Particularly over the last week, they've really clearly upped their spend and are throwing a lot more at it now."Back outside the Old Vicarage, mother and daughter Helen, 78, and Kate, 57, talk about the most pressing issue that week – the bus strike which began on Monday. They won't be voting for either the Conservatives or Labour. Kate thinks Labour will win, and while both admit they would probably back the Tories in a general election, they plan to use the by-election to give the governing party "a bit of a kicking", not least because of a response to the cost-of-living crisis that has been "too rigid". So they'll be voting for Reform UK, the latest iteration of what was the Brexit Party, which they backed in 2019. It's leaping into that gap and giving the Conservatives – or "Consocialists", as he calls them – a bit of a kicking that Reform UK's leader, <keyword id="14166276" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="richard-tice" source="Orion">Richard Tice</keyword>, is drawn towards. In an interview with Insider, Tice claims the party has knocked on 70% of the doors in the constituency two weeks ahead of polling day, seeking to fill the vacuum left by the <keyword id="14166277" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="liberal-democrats" source="Orion">Liberal Democrats</keyword> busy campaigning for the by-election on the same day in Tiverton and Honiton as the protest vote. Tice says he has heard two themes: "Fear, genuine fear, at how people are going to pay their bills and the cost of living. And the other is fury. I think people are furious at <keyword id="13495783" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="partygate" source="Orion">partygate</keyword>, furious at the fact that trust in politics has just been decimated across the board, and furious at energy bills."Wakefield voted around 63% to leave in the 2016 referendum, according to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17457289.2017.1287081?journalCode=fbep20">analysis by politics professor Chris Hanretty</a>. Tice says people are also "furious that Boris has basically botched Brexit. People know that Northern Ireland is a mess, totally of Boris's making." It's because of that Brexit support that the party are focused on Wakefield, instead of Tiverton and Honiton, where "shire Tories" are more likely to want to vote for the Liberal Democrats as a protest vote, he says. And like the Liberal Democrats, Tice says a priority for the next non-Conservative government should be electoral reform, admitting his interest as the leader (albeit an unelected appointee after Nigel Farage left) of what he describes as the UK's fifth largest party. Ahmed, the Conservative candidate, doesn't seem fussed by the idea of losing due to voters backing Reform. "I don't even know – they don't even know what they stand for. What are their policies? What do they stand for?" He's sceptical of the relevance of electoral reform as a priority for Wakefield voters.The Liberal Democrats don't have a campaign base in the constituency, with the registered office 17 miles away on the other side of Leeds. In an interview over the phone, their candidate, Jamie Needle, admits the party is putting more resources into Tiverton and Honiton, a contest that for the party is "more in contention". There, he thinks the contest is likely to be close, but as for Wakefield, he says he knows no better than the pollsters, which have him in either third or fourth place.The effects of war on the continent and conflict further afield have not skipped the city. Nika, 26, tells Insider she is an asylum seeker, fleeing Moscow in early 2022 before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and one of what she estimates to be 300 to 400 refugees in Wakefield from countries including Syria, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Nika says she has been welcomed to Wakefield, "a wonderful place with parks and developed infrastructure", and thanks the UK government for its "good attitude" that has given her a roof over her head.Her response to a question on what Wakefield needs suggests she's well in line with the views of long standing residents on what really matters: "More buses."

Wakefield's by-election, where the Conservatives are haunted by a ghost and locals complain about bus strikes

In a move that will benefit millions of unskilled workers across the country, the current Indian government is about to make its first significant foray into <keyword id="954190" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="labour-reform">labour reform</keyword>. On May 1st, the country’s minister of labour, Santosh Gangwar, told the Press Trust of India that a Parliamentary standing committee had finalised a policy draft of the <a href="http://www.prsindia.org/uploads/media/Code%20on%20Wages,%202017/Code%20on%20Wages,%202017.pdf">Wage Code Bill 2017</a>, and that the bill would be debated for passage in the next session of <keyword id="6354721" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="parliament">Parliament</keyword> commencing in July. The bill largely aims to set a <keyword id="562632" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="minimum-wage">minimum wage</keyword> for different geographical regions in India. It was introduced in the lower house of Parliament (Lok Sabha) in August last year before being referred to a standing committee- the second step in the process of a bill becoming an act. Once the bill is implemented, a state government will not be allowed to set a minimum wage below the central government’s benchmark for that industry. A combination of four laws The bill updates and combines all four of India’s outdated minimum wage and remuneration laws- the 1936 Payment of Wages Act, 1936, the 1949 Minimum Wages Act, the 1965 Payment of Bonus Act, and the 1976 Equal Remuneration Act - into one <keyword id="2808767" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Labour-Code">labour code</keyword>. This will reduce overlap and contradictions and also make it easier for businesses to comply with the norms. The previous minimum wage acts only applied to “scheduled companies” with more than a 1000 employees, while the new bill applies to all workers across India in different sectors. The new bill also proposes the payment of wages to beneficiaries through electronic means, for the purpose of monitoring, and allows the central government to set a minimum overtime wage- which will be twice the normal minimum wage. No national benchmark The government will not specify a set national minimum wage. In response to news reports that the national floor level minimum wage would be fixed at ₹18,000 per month, the labour ministry has said that the <a href="http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/national-minimum-wage-will-vary-not-fixed-at-rs-18-000-month-centre-117090501042_1.html">minimum wage will vary across the country</a>. Furthermore, the minimum wage levels will be assessed and revised every five years by central and state governments. While one can’t help thinking that a national floor rate across the country would be easier to enforce, the government is taking into account the widely disparate costs of living in different states and the nature of work in different industries. For example, rent and food costs in urban areas in Maharashtra are a lot higher than they are in the Northeast, hence they will have a higher minimum wage. Or labour intensive industries like manufacturing will likely have a higher minimum wage than less arduous ones like hospitality. A few problems There are a few weaknesses in the new bill, however. Firstly, it dilutes the Equal Remuneration Act of 1976 by taking out the clause preventing companies from discriminating against women when making <keyword id="6357342" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hiring">hiring</keyword> decisions, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/India-would-be-US550-billion-richer-if-it-just-increased-its-share-of-women-in-the-labor-force-by-10/articleshow/63974273.cms">which is definitely a problem </a>in today’s climate. Secondly, while the practice of having different minimum wage levels for different states and industries makes sense, it could lead to lobbying by large companies or resistance from states that aren’t ruled by the BJP. A number of industry leaders campaigned for lower GST rates while the rates were being set, and it isn’t hard to see that happening again here. Knock-on effects Following the recent slowdown in India’s economy, India’s small businesses have been struggling to stay afloat. They have had to contend with demonetisation, the implementation of GST, a dearth of credit options and a hike in wages paid to employees might just force them to slow down their hiring. While actual minimum wage rates are yet to be determined, they will be higher than current wage rates, which could impact employment in the formal sector. Concurrently, as India struggles to create new jobs, higher minimum wages could serve to exacerbate the situation. A hike in minimum wages could compel companies to hire employees on a temporary basis or off the books- something that the new bill should seek to address. Companies could also pass on the higher labour costs to customers. It’s highly plausible that you might end up having to pay more for your food at a restaurant or for gadgets that were assembled in India. What is certain though, is that the government needs to supplement the minimum wage code with policies that enable the formalisation of the economy and make hiring-and-firing easier. This will allow the new bill to have its intended effect.

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Wakefield's by-election, where the Conservatives are haunted by a ghost and locals complain about bus strikes

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