Best printers for Home

Best Mixer Grinder

Best wired Earphones

Best 43 Inch TV in India

Best Wi Fi Routers

Best Home Theatre in India

Smart Watch under 5000

Best Laptops for Education

Best Laptop for Students

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Perkins Rule suggests a recession is imminent when monthly payrolls decline.</li><li>Unlike other indicators, the Perkins Rule focuses solely on negative monthly payroll reports.</li></ul>Countless recession indicators have flashed over the past few years, from an inverted yield curve to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sahm-rule-recession-outlook-indicator-triggered-unemployment-rate-jobs-report-2024-8">the Sahm Rule,</a> and yet the economy continues to grow in defiance of the signals.However, there is a more straightforward recession indicator that investors should pay attention to, and it could be a more timely indicator of when an economic downturn may occur.GlobalData TS Lombard managing director Dario Perkins coined the "Perkins Rule" in a series of notes over the past month.The recession indicator triggers when the jobs market contracts.That means instead of using a three-month moving average of unemployment or looking at signals in the bond market, the Perkins Rule is activated simply when a negative monthly payroll report is received."The Perkins rule asks whether payrolls are declining. Not rocket science," Perkins said in a note on Monday.And so far, with the US economy consistently adding well over 100,000 new jobs per month, there have yet to be any signs of a negative monthly payroll report, suggesting the economy is likely to continue to grow."True uncertainty is where we cannot assign probabilities, because the world is behaving in a way we haven't seen before. I think this applies to the current recession debate," Perkins said in a note this month.He added: "You have to keep an open mind, and not assume the economy will follow classic cyclical patterns. Leading indicators, yield inversion, perhaps even the Sahm rule, none of these rules seem reliable."The Perkins Rule doesn't suffer from the potential flaw of the unemployment-based Sahm Rule, which experts say is being distorted because a rise in labor supply has driven the unemployment rate higher over the past year, rather than a decline in labor demand."If the unemployment rate is rising because the labour force is growing quickly, it is not clear that this can set off the true recessionary dynamic - because it is not such an obvious source of reflexivity," Perkins explained.The Perkins Rule hits on the "reflexivity" of employers and the Federal Reserve, as a negative jobs report could quickly send shockwaves across the labor market and ultimately cascade into a painful economic downturn."People lose their jobs (or they become fearful of losing their jobs), spending goes down, which reduces corporate revenues, which leads to further rounds of redundancies. You can see why even small employment cuts lead to bigger ones," Perkins said.But that's not happening right now.Even when accounting for the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/economy-added-818000-fewer-jobs-ed-yardeni-says-dont-worry-2024-8">BLS' major downward revision in job gains</a> from April 2023 through March 2024 of 818,000, the US economy is still adding an average of about 175,000 new jobs each month.Compared to the Sahm Rule, the Perkins Rule has had more false positives, Perkins admitted."While it is rare for US payrolls to decline outside of recessions, it does happen occasionally," Perkins said. "Usually this is due to obvious distortions, such as extreme weather events."The Perkins Rule flashed a false signal during the 1995 soft landing, and in the late 1960s."So the Perkins rule isn't fool proof. But that's not the point. The important thing is that when you look at every time the Sahm rule has triggered since WW2, there were only three occasions where payrolls weren't ALREADY negative," Perkins said.He added: "Usually when the Sahm rule triggers, the Perkins rule has already triggered. That matters because this is NOT what is happening today. The latest triggering of the Sahm rule looks very different to the average recessionary experience."Investors will get to see if the Perkins Rule triggers next week when the August jobs report is released on September 6. Economists expect the report to show 114,000 jobs were added to the economy in August.

The Sahm Rule has flashed, but there's a simpler recession indicator investors should be watching

For employees, a job is about more than just the paycheck—elements like work-life balance, career development and a positive <keyword id="20375714" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="workplace-environment" source="keywords">workplace environment</keyword> play crucial roles. This broader perspective extends to a national level too, with highly <keyword id="20614079" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="skilled-professionals" source="keywords">skilled professionals</keyword> increasingly drawn to countries that offer a more inclusive and progressive atmosphere. A recent study from Washington State University underscores this notion, revealing that European countries which embraced <keyword id="20026331" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="same-sex-marriage" source="keywords">same-sex marriage</keyword> saw a significant boost in retaining their top talent. This shift had considerable economic repercussions, particularly in influencing the flow of skilled workers to the United States. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Uncovering the link between marriage equality and skilled labour retention" comment="subhead" text="Uncovering the link between marriage equality and skilled labour retention">Uncovering the link between <keyword id="1660336" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="marriage-equality" source="Orion">marriage equality</keyword> and <keyword id="22603926" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="skilled-labour-retention" source="Orion">skilled labour retention</keyword></cmsannotation> The study, recently published in AEA Papers and Proceedings, analysed 20 years of data on H-1B visas—those coveted permits for immigrants with advanced degrees and specialised skills. The research team’s choice to focus on EU countries was a strategic one, leveraging the shared labour market within this political and economic union for a more precise analysis of marriage equality’s effects. The EU also provided a natural experiment: by 2019, roughly half of the 27 member states had legalised same-sex marriage, while the remaining 14 had not, creating a perfect control group for comparison. The results revealed that from 2000 to 2019, as 13 EU countries adopted same-sex marriage laws, the U.S. experienced a 21% decline in new H-1B visas from these countries. This trend persisted despite differences in enactment dates and economic conditions across the EU. The study also considered the effect of the U.S. recognising foreign same-sex marriages in 2013. Notably, this policy change slowed the decrease in H-1B visa admissions from EU countries with existing marriage equality laws, such as The Netherlands, Belgium and Spain. Koroles Awad, a Ph.D. candidate in economics at WSU, emphasised that <keyword id="21934841" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inclusive-policies" source="keywords">inclusive policies</keyword> make countries more attractive to skilled labour. This finding underscores the broader economic benefits of marriage equality beyond just social progress. Awad further noted that marriage equality could act as a non-monetary incentive for attracting and retaining highly sought-after skilled workers, particularly in STEM fields. Building on previous U.S. studies showing that same-sex couples and households led by women were more likely to relocate to states recognising same-sex marriage, this new research broadens the understanding of how inclusive policies affect migration patterns. Although this study doesn’t address the sexual orientation of H-1B visa holders, it clearly indicates that the appeal of inclusive environments is a significant factor for skilled professionals.

Inclusivity pays off: Countries with same-sex marriage retain skilled professionals more effectively, per study

<keyword id="20779198" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chief-Economic-Advisor" source="keywords">Chief Economic Advisor</keyword> V Anantha Nageswaran emphasized the crucial and positive role that artificial intelligence (<keyword id="19899640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AI" source="keywords">AI</keyword>) can play for the <keyword id="22505095" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-demography" source="keywords">Indian demography</keyword> and <keyword id="20278114" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="labour-force" source="keywords">labour force</keyword> during a press conference on the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> 2023-24. He noted that within the next decade, India is poised to become the world's third-largest economy and will benefit significantly from its demographic dividend. However, Nageswaran also acknowledged potential challenges posed by AI, particularly for India's <keyword id="20811086" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="business-process-outsourcing" source="keywords">Business Process Outsourcing</keyword> (BPO) sector. He stated, "The short-term challenge of generative AI could slow <keyword id="22505093" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BPO-sector-growth" source="keywords">BPO sector growth</keyword>, affecting <keyword id="21300718" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="customer-services" source="keywords">customer services</keyword>. It is possible that the jobs related to BPO will be under threat whereas AI may actually turn out to be a booster." Furthermore, Nageswaran also pointed out that the emergence of AI might reduce annual <keyword id="21420133" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="productivity-growth" source="keywords">productivity growth</keyword> by approximately 0.3 percentage points in the coming years. This indicates a potential short-term dip in productivity as industries adapt to new technologies. Despite these challenges, Nageswaran added that the long-term potential of AI is promising. The broader adoption of AI could lead to significant improvements in critical areas such as healthcare and education, thereby enhancing human capital. The economic survey presented in the Parliament by finance minister Nirmala Sithraman says in the medium term Indian economy can grow at a rate of 7 per cent. The economic survey stated, "In the medium term, the Indian economy can grow at a rate of 7 per cent plus on a sustained basis if we build on the structural reforms undertaken over the last decade. This requires a tripartite compact between the Union Government, State Governments and the private sector." Achieving a sustained growth rate of over 7 per cent will require a tripartite compact between the Union Government, State Governments, and the private sector. India's financial sector is undergoing critical transformations. During FY24, primary capital markets facilitated capital formation of Rs 10.9 lakh crore, accounting for approximately 29 per cent of the gross fixed capital formation of private and public corporates in FY23. It further adds India faces a unique blend of opportunities and challenges amid global trends such as geo-economic fragmentation, a push for self-reliance, looming climate change, the rise of technology, and limited policy space. (ANI)

AI could slow BPO sector growth: Chief Economic Advisor Nageshwaran

The rupee climbed 9 paise to 83.37 against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword> in early trade on Friday, tracking strong sentiment in the <keyword id="20226142" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="domestic-equity-markets" source="keywords">domestic equity markets</keyword> and a weak American currency against major rivals overseas. <keyword id="20024982" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forex-traders" source="keywords">Forex traders</keyword> said the outflow of foreign funds and elevated level of crude oil prices, however, weighed on the Indian currency. At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened strong at 83.40 and touched the intra-day peak of 83.36 against the greenback. The local unit later traded at 83.37 against the dollar in the morning deals, registering a gain of 9 paise from its previous closing level. The rupee had settled 3 paise lower at 83.46 against the dollar on Thursday. According to Gaurang Somaiya, Forex and bullion analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, the dollar was weighed down against major crosses after the US Federal Reserve kept the key interest rate unchanged for the sixth consecutive time. Also, the ongoing pressures and a tight labour market indicated a stall in progress toward bringing inflation back to its 2 per cent target this year. Analysts also said market participants are expected to keep a close watch on the US non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday. Besides, weekly unemployment claims, trade balance and factory order data from the US are likely to provide further cues. "Today, the focus will be on the non-farm payrolls data, which is expected to come in marginally lower and that could weigh on the greenback. Apart from payrolls, services PMI number is also likely to trigger volatility for the dollar. We expect USD-INR (Spot) to trade sideways and quote in a range of 83.20-83.50," Somaiya said. India's manufacturing PMI fell to 58.8 in April 2024 from 59.1 in the previous month, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), however, recorded the second fastest improvement in operating conditions in three-and-a-half years supported by buoyant demand. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, declined 0.04 per cent to 105.13. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.36 per cent to USD 83.97 per barrel. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 463.87 points or 0.62 per cent higher at 75,074.98. The broader NSE Nifty soared 136.65 points or 0.60 per cent to 22,784.85. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday, as they sold shares worth Rs 964.47 crore on a net basis, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/t20-world-cup-here-are-the-squads-announced-by-major-participating-countries-so-far/slidelist/109787165.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/t20-world-cup-here-are-the-squads-announced-by-major-participating-countries-so-far/slidelist/109787165.cms" target="_blank" style="">T20 World Cup: Here are the squads announced by major participating countries so far</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/april-auto-sales-hyundai-continues-to-hold-the-second-position-as-tata-motors-inches-closer/articleshow/109777834.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/april-auto-sales-hyundai-continues-to-hold-the-second-position-as-tata-motors-inches-closer/articleshow/109777834.cms" target="_blank">April auto sales – Hyundai continues to hold the second position as Tata Motors inches closer</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/upcoming-cars-and-two-wheelers-launching-in-india-in-may-2024/slidelist/109723620.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/upcoming-cars-and-two-wheelers-launching-in-india-in-may-2024/slidelist/109723620.cms" target="_blank">Upcoming cars and two-wheelers launching in India in May 2024</a>

Rupee jumps 9 paise to 83.37 against US dollar in early trade

New Delhi [India], January 5 (ANI): A recent case study conducted by the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Lucknow, commissioned by the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), unveils a success story for the Indian <keyword id="138116" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="toy-industry" source="Orion">toy industry</keyword> in the fiscal year 2022-23. The study indicates a notable decline of 52 per cent in toy imports and an impressive surge of 239 per cent in toy exports compared to the fiscal year 2014-15. The report credits the government's dedicated efforts in the past six years for creating a more favourable manufacturing ecosystem for the Indian toy industry. During this period, the number of manufacturing units doubled, reducing dependence on imported inputs from 33 per cent to 12 per cent. Furthermore, gross sales value witnessed a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10 per cent, accompanied by an overall increase in labour productivity. The findings highlight India's emergence as a prominent player in the global toy value chain, evident in the country's integration into the global toy value chain and zero-duty market access for domestically manufactured <keyword id="25284" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="toys" source="Orion">toys</keyword> in nations like the UAE and Australia. The report positions India as a viable alternative to established toy hubs like China and Vietnam. To solidify its position in the global market, the report emphasizes the need for consistent collaborative efforts between the toy industry and the government. Key areas identified include technological advancements, e-commerce integration, partnerships and exports, brand-building investments, engagement with educators and parents for effective communication with children, valuing cultural diversity, and collaboration with regional artisans. The Indian government has implemented various interventions and initiatives to foster growth in the toy industry. These include the formulation of a comprehensive National Action Plan for Toys (NAPT) with 21 specific action points, increases in Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on toys, sample testing of each import consignment by the <keyword id="19992660" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="directorate-general-of-foreign-trade" source="keywords">Directorate General of Foreign Trade</keyword> (DGFT) to curb sub-standard imports, issuance of a Quality Control Order (QCO) for toys in 2020, and support through cluster-based approaches. The report indicates significant interest from global retail giant Walmart to import toys from India and sell them worldwide. Walmart has set a target of USD 10 billion for overall imports from India, including Indian toys. With the concerted efforts of the government and domestic manufacturers, the Indian toy industry is projected to witness substantial growth in the next five years. DPIIT Secretary mentions that the global toys industry stands at around USD 300 billion, whereas India holds around USD 1.5 billion. He envisions a doubling of the Indian toy industry in the next five years. <keyword id="20072072" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sanjeev-singh" source="keywords">Sanjeev Singh</keyword>, Joint Secretary at DPIIT, reveals Walmart's interest in Indian toys, with a target of USD 10 billion in overall imports from India. Professor Sanjay Kumar Singh of IIM Lucknow notes a substantial reduction in India's dependency on Chinese imports, from 94 per cent to 62 per cent. Over 1,200 safety licenses issued by the <keyword id="20050220" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bureau-of-indian-standards" source="keywords">Bureau of Indian Standards</keyword> (BIS) to domestic toy manufacturers further emphasize the safety and quality standards upheld by the industry. The successful trajectory of the Indian toy industry, reflected in declining imports, soaring exports, and quality improvement, showcases the positive impact of collaborative efforts and strategic government interventions. As the industry sets its sights on global markets, the case study underscores the importance of continued collaboration for sustained growth and innovation in the Indian toy sector. (ANI)

Indian toy industry witnesses 239% increase in exports: IIM Lucknow report

<ul><li>The <keyword id="6357125" type="DEFINITION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Labour-Market">labour market</keyword> appears as if it is running out of steam after a roaring recovery saw <keyword id="6355569" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="job">job</keyword> <keyword id="6396681" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="vacancies">vacancies</keyword> boom.</li><li>Job ads, typically a foreword indicator of <keyword id="891869" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment-growth">employment growth</keyword>, are up more than 45% on pre-pandemic levels, Indeed figures show.</li><li>However, vacancy numbers have made no progress whatsoever in the last month, suggesting that there is little room to go higher, at the same time that lockdowns begin to bite.</li></ul>The miraculous national recovery is beginning to hit turbulence, as the expanding labour market appears to reach its limit and lockdowns take hold. Indeed’s latest numbers show the boom in Australian jobs may have found a ceiling, as vacancies begin to plateau for the second month in a row. Job ads are now 45.7% higher than they were prior to the pandemic, as easy money and fiscal stimulus have helped put Australia’s economy on track to post record year-on-year growth. While impressive, the labour market has made no progress since the end of May, with ads in mid-June actually slightly lower now than they were two weeks prior. More troubling is what impact lockdowns are having, with Victoria’s economy having trailed other state economies into this year, dragging back the national revery as a result. Indeed Asia-Pacific economist Callam Pickering told Business Insider Australia that “short-term lockdowns have had no meaningful impact on hiring behaviour”, but acknowledged that longer ones did come with a cost. “Victoria’s fourth lockdown may have had a modest impact on hiring but we expect that impact to quickly shift as restrictions are lifted,” Pickering said earlier this week. Those comments however, much like the figures themselves, pre-date the latest outbreak that has spread from Bondi out into other parts of Sydney, with two new cases having now been identified in Victoria with the Delta strain. While it is too early to tell how big the current outbreak will grow to or how long <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/sydney-businesses-week-long-lockdown-losses-fitness-retail-hospitality-2021-6" target="_blank">Sydney’s lockdown</a> will last, it does further undermine a recovery that appears to have already found its top speed. Lockdowns aside, the fundamentals of the Australian economy look strong, with Pickering anticipating the labour market to continue to tighten. “Competition remains fierce across the nation, with risks of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-tech-closed-borders-pandemic-pay-rises-2021-6" target="_blank">near-term skill-shortages emerging</a> now that the unemployment rate has hit 5.1%,” he said. “Businesses are pretty confident about the economic outlook and their future prospects and they are hiring accordingly.” Separate ABS data shows that more than <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-skills-shortage-wage-growth-2021-6" target="_blank">one in four businesses can’t find workers right now</a>, suggesting skill shortages are becoming far more pronounced. “The longer these hiring trends persist, the greater the likelihood that it translates into stronger wage growth, particularly in those areas where demand is strongest. Strong wage growth has been the missing piece in Australia’s economic puzzle for the past eight years and we are inching closer to changing that,” Pickering said. Certainly it is the hope of the <keyword id="50847" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank">Reserve Bank</keyword>, which has reaffirmed it will keep interest rates low to keep heat in the economy for “at least” a few years. While major bank economists challenge that assumption, it too is based on the premise that wage growth and full employment are coming. Further virus outbreaks could certainly threaten that, shaking some of the confidence that has been returned to businesses and consumers. Early reports on Friday suggest Sydney’s hospitality sector could write off $260 million from the first week of lockdowns alone, while tourism figures suggest current border closures could cost billions more. If there is a silver lining to be found in the figures however, it is that New South Wales has so far proved to be not only the most resilient state but also has the most spare capacity currently of any state. Indeed figures show hiring is 54.5% stronger in the state than before the pandemic, and the only one north of 50%. <keyword id="60769" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Western-Australia">Western Australia</keyword> and Queensland are the next stronger performers. Much of that result could be attributed to the First State’s careful management of the virus, one that has both been successful in containing outbreaks but also in only selectively employing hardline restrictions. This may now face its most difficult test yet. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/cryptocurrency/news/heres-how-chinas-2021-crypto-crackdown-in-2021-differs-from-the-2017-ban/articleshow/83802778.cms">Here’s how China’s 2021 crypto crackdown in 2021 differs from the 2017 ban</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/zomato-is-seeking-a-8-billion-valuation-in-its-ipo-does-it-make-sense/articleshow/83801848.cms">There are a few reasons why Zomato wants $8 billion valuation from its IPO -- here's a look at if it makes sense</a>

Australia's job market has found a ceiling as lockdowns begin to drag on the recovery

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A new <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_755875?lang=en">report</a> from the <keyword id="240184" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="International-Labour-Organization">International Labour Organization</keyword> details worse-than-expected damage in the global <keyword id="409455" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="labor-market">labor market</keyword> and forecasts pain lasting through the fourth-quarter of 2020.</li><li>The <keyword id="6355833" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="united-nations">United Nations</keyword> agency expects working-hour losses to remain elevated through the third quarter at 12.1%, or 345 million full-time-equivalent jobs.</li><li>Global labor income is expected to shrink over the first three quarters of 2020 by 10.7%, or $3.5 trillion, the <keyword id="6456249" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ilo">ILO</keyword> added.</li><li>The bulk of the fallout landed among middle-income nations, the agency said.</li><li>The ILO projected fourth-quarter working-hour losses to reach 8.6%, up from the previous estimate of 4.9%.</li></ul>The coronavirus's labor-market hit has mostly been quantified by the amount of jobs lost and a rising <keyword id="6358907" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="unemployment">unemployment</keyword> rate. The International Labour Organization — a United Nations agency — now projects the pandemic erased roughly $3.5 trillion in worker income year-to-date.The agency laid out its latest reading of the global labor market in a Wednesday <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_755875?lang=en">report</a>, highlighting lasting pain in the workforce while other economic indicators return to pre-pandemic highs.Working-hour losses are expected to remain elevated through the third quarter at 12.1%, or 345 million full-time-equivalent jobs, the ILO said. Those losses signal a global drop in labor income of 10.7% over the first three quarters of 2020 compared to the year-ago period.Second-quarter working-time losses landed above estimates. While the agency expected losses to reach 14%, or 400 million FTE jobs, Wednesday's report pegs the total at 17.3%, or 495 million FTE jobs.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trading-strategy-fx-legend-randy-mckay-7-rules-made-millions-2020-9">Legendary trader Randy McKay turned $2,000 into $70,000 in just 7 months. Here are the 7 trading rules that contributed to his multi-year run of million dollar-plus returns.</a>Labor income losses were highest in middle-income countries, the agency said. Lower-middle-income countries saw losses reach 15.1%, while upper-middle-income countries' losses hit 11.4%. To be sure, ILO's tally of wages lost doesn't include income regained from government support measures, such as the US's expansion of unemployment benefits. The agency estimates that increases to stimulus spending by 1% of gross domestic product would've shaved 0.8 percentage points from working-hour losses.Had no stimulus been passed, global working-hour losses could've rocketed as high as 28% in the second quarter, ILO added.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-advice-stocks-to-buy-amid-sell-off-morgan-stanley-2020-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Buy these 15 stocks right now before they rally higher, says the Morgan Stanley equity chief who nailed his call for a short-term market meltdown</a>A global stimulus gap is also dragging lower- and middle-income nations' economies at a disproportionate rate, according to the report. ILO estimates that such countries need to pass another $982 billion in relief spending to match the aid seen in high-income nations. The stimulus gap is just 1% of the total value of stimulus packages passed by high-income countries, the agency noted.ILO's fourth-quarter outlook doesn't leave much room for optimism. ILO estimated working-hour losses to total 8.6% from the year-ago period, or roughly 245 million FTE jobs. That's up from a previous estimate of 4.9%, or 140 million FTE jobs.The worsening outlook comes as Congress all but entirely gives up on passing new stimulus. Democrats and Republicans failed to reach a compromise through September as both parties stood apart on bill sizing and program allocations. Senate Republicans' push to confirm a new Supreme Court justice also overshadowed plans to pass new fiscal relief.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-on-the-dip-3-companies-marc-chaikin-2020-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Wall Street expert explains why the market's ongoing turbulence could end within 2 weeks — and pinpoints 3 stocks to grab cheaper now as big investors buy the dip</a>

Coronavirus fallout has erased $3.5 trillion in workforce income, UN agency says

Washington, US employers slashed 140,000 <keyword id="11018" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jobs">jobs</keyword> in December 2020, the first monthly decline in <keyword id="6355127" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment">employment</keyword> since April 2020, as recent Covid-19 spikes have stalled the recovery of the <keyword id="6357125" type="DEFINITION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Labour-Market">labour market</keyword>, an official report said. "The decline in payroll employment reflects the recent increase in coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and efforts to contain the pandemic," the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) said in its monthly employment report. The BLS report noted that employment in leisure and hospitality declined by 498,000, with three-quarters of the decrease in food services and drinking places, by 372,000. Since February 2020, employment in leisure and hospitality has been down by 3.9 million, or 23.2%. Employment in private education, meanwhile, decreased by 63,000 in December, the report showed, noting that employment in the industry has fallen by 450,000 since February. Government employment also declined by 45,000 in the month. Since February 2020, government employment overall has been cut by 1.3 million. In December, job losses in leisure and hospitality and in private education were partially offset by gains in professional and business services, retail trade, and construction, according to the Bureau's report. The report also showed that growth in total non-farm payroll employment for October was revised up by 44,000 to 654,000, and the gain for November was revised up by 91,000 to 336,000. Amid widespread Covid-19 shutdowns in March and April last year, 22 million Americans lost their jobs. The latest data showed that the number of <keyword id="6368046" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="unemployed">unemployed</keyword> in December remained unchanged at 10.7 million, which is about 5 million higher than pre-pandemic level in February 2020. The unemployment rate, which has been trending down over the past seven months, remained unchanged at 6.7% in December, the report showed, indicating the disruption to the labour market recovery. The unemployment rate in December was down by 8 <keyword id="1648970" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="percentage-points">percentage points</keyword> from its recent high in April 2020 but is 3.2 percentage points higher than its pre-pandemic level in February, the Bureau noted. Weekly initial jobless claims have been largely declining in the past few months, but the trend was recently reversed in the weeks ending November 14 and November 21, 2020, and then in the weeks ending December 5 and December 12, 2020. The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) registered 57.2% in December, 1.3 percentage point higher than the November reading, according to the latest Services ISM Report on Business. The employment index, however, fell by 3.3 percentage points to 48.2%, marking the first contraction after three consecutive months of growth. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/tcs-delivers-yet-another-strong-quarter-with-16-growth-in-profit-as-covid-drives-tech-spending/articleshow/80173561.cms">TCS delivers yet another strong quarter with 16% growth in profit as COVID drives tech spending</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/retail/news/dmart-the-nearly-two-trillion-dollar-indian-retailer-may-post-strong-earnings-watch-out-for-the-progress-on-e-commerce/articleshow/80172629.cms">DMart, the nearly two trillion dollar Indian retailer, may post strong earnings ⁠— watch out for the progress on e-commerce</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/oyo-bags-a-7-4-million-cheque-as-pandemic-forces-ritesh-agarwal-to-reimagine-the-business/articleshow/80170847.cms">OYO bags a $7.4 million cheque as pandemic forces Ritesh Agarwal to reimagine the business</a>

140,000 jobs lost in US in December 2020

New Delhi, <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> is likely to account for more than a fifth of incremental global consumption for chemicals over the next two decades as domestic demand is projected to rise to USD 1,000 billion by 2040, McKinsey said in a report. In the report titled 'India: The next chemicals manufacturing hub', McKinsey said the country's chemical industry has been a global outperformer in demand growth and shareholder wealth creation over the last decade. "It now stands poised to play an increasingly dominant role across both consumption and manufacturing in the global arena," it said. The sector is projected to grow at 11-12 per cent during 2021-27 and 7-10 per cent during 2027-40 -- tripling its global market share by 2040. "India is expected to account for more than 20 per cent of incremental global consumption for chemicals over the next two decades. Domestic consumption and demand is expected to rise from USD 170-180 billion in 2021 to USD 850-1000 billion by 2040," it said. Chemicals find wide usage in human lives -- from detergents to clothing and fragrances, from insecticides to paints, and telecommunication to music and media. McKinsey said the growing demand for biofriendly products globally could benefit India, as it is among the leading producers of many chemicals that are used in such products. "Triggered by the evolving geopolitical scenario and the trend to diversify from the existing core manufacturing markets; firms are seeking to make their supply-chains more resilient. With its strong value proposition, India could be a preferred destination," it said. However, India will continue to be import dependent for meeting its needs for chemicals. Out of the three main segments of the sector -- inorganic, petrochemicals, and specialty -- only specialty is expected to be a net exporter. Due to limited cracker infrastructure and scarcity of key feedstock and minerals, both petchem and inorganic segments will be import dependent. "Over recent years, changing geopolitical scenarios have led to many countries focusing on domestic self-sufficiency and localised supply chains. However, benchmarking India's manufacturing competitiveness reveals that India has a strong starting point vs other key global chemical clusters that could translate into India becoming the next chemicals manufacturing hub," McKinsey said. "India will be the fastest growing global demand centre for chemicals with domestic consumption set to grow at a 9-10 per cent CAGR in the coming years on the back of rising disposable incomes, a favourable demographic dividend, increasing global preference for biofriendly alternatives, and growing diversification of global chemical supply chains," it said. The specialty chemicals segment is likely to be a key driver of this growth. It has the potential to contribute more than USD 20 billion to India's net exports by 2040, a 10 times jump from the current total of USD 2 billion. McKinsey said benchmarking against six global chemical clusters surfaces both India's strengths and areas of improvement as a global destination for manufacturing chemicals. "Indian chemical companies often face obstacles in feedstock availability due to lagging cracker capacity and low access to building blocks and key minerals". Additionally, India faces a dearth of skilled R&amp;D talent and challenges in timely environment and land approvals. "Despite this, India is cost competitive in several chemical segments due to low capital and operating expenses such as labour, utility and overhead expenses etc," it said. Coupled with promoters' focus on high profitability and a culture of process innovation, Indian chemical companies generate one of the highest EBITDA per unit of investment in fixed assets. "This is evident from global leadership of multiple Indian firms across segments like agrochemicals, pharma intermediates, dyes and pigments, carbon black etc," it said. Many sub-segments in India's chemicals sector offer opportunities for building at-scale businesses. Winning plays exist across specialty chemicals (agrochemicals, flavours &amp; fragrances, cosmetic chemicals), inorganic chemicals (caustic, fluorine) and petrochemicals (C4, C6 and C8 derivatives). "These sub-segments score high on both cost competitiveness -- a function of domestic feedstock availability, trade balance, capacity utilisation, scope of process and tech innovation -- and market attractiveness, an indicator of market size, demand growth, export potential," it added. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/more-than-110-vc-firms-led-by-general-catalyst-are-banding-together-in-support-of-silicon-valley-bank/articleshow/98573133.cms">More than 110 VC firms, led by General Catalyst, are banding together in support of Silicon Valley Bank</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/svb-collapse-minister-chandrasekhar-to-meet-indian-startups-to-see-how-govt-can-help-them/articleshow/98577417.cms">SVB collapse: Minister Chandrasekhar to meet Indian startups to see how govt can help them</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/india-born-rajesh-agrawal-to-lead-london-trade-mission-to-india/articleshow/98577581.cms">India-born Rajesh Agrawal to lead London trade mission to India</a>

India's chemical demand likely to jump to $1,000 billion by 2040

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Smaller firms are struggling under the weight of interest rates and rising defaults are a recessionary signal. </li><li>According to Societe Generale, credit conditions at small companies are in line with what's seen in a downturn. </li></ul>Big Tech and the "Magnificent Seven" stocks powering big gains for the S&amp;P 500 this year may be getting all the attention from investors, but there's another, arguably more important, corner of the market that's quietly struggling—and its troubles are a sign a recession is probably looming. That's according to Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, who pointed out in a note on Thursday that not only would the benchmark stock index be staring at a loss without the contributions of the biggest tech gainers, but their rally this year has actually masked "cries of pain" at smaller firms throughout the economy. "Mega-cap-weighted whoops of delight have drowned out the cries of pain elsewhere," Edwards wrote. "You only need to turn your gaze to the smaller listed and unlisted companies to witness the torture being inflicted by the Fed's interest rate garrotting."The equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 is down about 5% this year, in line with the small-cap Russell 2000 index. Firms with less than 100 employees, while perhaps less flashy than an AI leader like Nvidia, are important to the economy as they generate more than half of all employment growth—and these firms are struggling right now under the weight of high interest rates. "[M]any investors, including those focused on the high yield market, appear to have got it into their heads that the rising default/bankruptcy rate is a lagging indicator that is in fact pointing to the start of a new economic cycle. Really?""The notion that we are at the start of a new economic cycle seems preposterous to me," Edwards said, later adding that, "credit conditions for small companies are at levels consistent with recession."This year, the number of corporate bankruptcy filings has surpassed the highs seen in 2020, and smaller companies in particular are feeling the crunch of the Fed's higher-for-longer interest rate regime. Once the pandemic stimulus relief runs dry, more companies could become vulnerable to bankruptcies, particularly the "zombie companies on extended life support."Societe Generale predicts speculative grade defaults could rise far above the current 4.7% rate as well as the implied market peak of 5.2%.Tighter credit conditions typically precede or accompany sliding profits for smaller companies, he added, and that in turn leads to declines in employment growth. "Post-pandemic labour shortages (reflected in payroll resilience) should not disguise the fact that smaller companies are being trampled underfoot – not by the Magnificent 7, but the 7 Fed Horseman of the Apocalypse," Edwards said.

'Cries of pain' at smaller firms are being drowned by exuberance elsewhere in the market - but rising defaults point to a recession coming, SocGen says

You Searched For "labour market indicators" and got 10 results

The Sahm Rule has flashed, but there's a simpler recession indicator investors should be watching

Matthew Fox

Inclusivity pays off: Countries with same-sex marriage retain skilled professionals more effectively, per study

Kunal Kambli

AI could slow BPO sector growth: Chief Economic Advisor Nageshwaran

ANI

Rupee jumps 9 paise to 83.37 against US dollar in early trade

PTI

Indian toy industry witnesses 239% increase in exports: IIM Lucknow report

ANI

Australia's job market has found a ceiling as lockdowns begin to drag on the recovery

Business Insider

Coronavirus fallout has erased $3.5 trillion in workforce income, UN agency says

Ben Winck

140,000 jobs lost in US in December 2020

IANS

India's chemical demand likely to jump to $1,000 billion by 2040

PTI

'Cries of pain' at smaller firms are being drowned by exuberance elsewhere in the market - but rising defaults point to a recession coming, SocGen says

Phil Rosen

Popular Keywords

Buying Guides