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<ul><li>Retail investors who drove the small and midcap stocks rally last year might face the brunt of its correction this year.</li><li>Not only do retail investors hold more small and midcap stocks than large caps, but their holdings have also gone up.</li><li>Even as correction is at play, there are cherry-picking opportunities for investors, assure experts, due to India’s macro fundamentals. </li></ul>The mid- and small-cap retail investors seem star-crossed at the moment as the markets continue to punish most stocks in these segments this quarter. The retail investors could see the worst of the ongoing rout, as they hold more such stocks compared to previous years. A whopping ₹6.6 trillion ($80 billion) has been lost in the small-cap stocks alone in less than two weeks since the authorities raised concerns over this overheating sector, <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/bse-sensex-nifty-small-cap-stocks-madcap-stocks-stock-market-fall/articleshow/108481553.cms">reports Bloomberg</a>. Proportionately, retail investors presence in small and midcap stocks is more than it is in the large caps. Also, their holdings in these indices have also gone up in the last four years, as per data by <keyword id="20038713" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kotak-institutional-equities" source="keywords">Kotak Institutional Equities</keyword>. “The excessive valuations in these segments (small and midcap) driven by the irrational exuberance of retail investors have been a concern for many months now. But it has taken the strong message from the regulator SEBI to trigger a correction in the <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> Small cap index by 10 per cent from the February 8 peak,” said <keyword id="19931025" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="v-k-vijayakumar" source="keywords">V K Vijayakumar</keyword>, chief investment strategist at <keyword id="19933343" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geojit-financial-services" source="keywords">Geojit Financial Services</keyword>. End of good times? For a long time, small and midcaps have been providing good returns to investors in the last few years. As much as 61% of midcap and 63% of small-cap stocks have given more than 30% return in the past year. “In our view, high return expectations and high returns over the past three years may have reinforced their direct participation through mid- and small-cap stocks and indirect participation through mid and small-cap funds,” says Kotak. Even after seeing a correction of 5% in the NSE Midcap 100 and 10% in the Nifty Smallcap 100 over the past month, on a one-year basis, their performance has been good. They’re still up 53% and 58%, respectively, in the past one year. The rally drivers, however, might have to face the worst of it too. In the recent crash, hundreds of smallcap stocks hit lower circuits, and a bulk of stocks have given negative returns in the last month. A rising tide of retail investors A relentless rally last year may have driven more and more retail investors to enter these segments at a rather risky juncture. Now, retail investors hold more proportion of small and midcap stocks compared to large caps, with a sharp rise in the last four years, according to the data by Kotak Institutional Equities. “It would appear that retail investors have taken a more positive view on small-cap stocks and a more active part in the rally in smallcap stocks and are thus more exposed to the ongoing correction,” says the Kotak report. A bulk of mid and small cap stocks have also run up ahead of their consensus estimates. “We find the valuations of the majority of the mid-cap and small-cap stocks to be quite expensive, especially in the context of their business models as well as their own history,” Kotak adds. Retail/FPI Holdings across indices: <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Investor </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">NSE 100 March 2019 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">NSE 100 Dec 2023 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">NSE Midcap 100 March 2019 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">NSE Midcap 100 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">NSE Smallcap 100 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">NSE Smallcap 100 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Retail </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.5% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.9% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">8.4% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">9.5% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">12.5% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">15.4% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">FPIs </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">24% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">23.3% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">19.2% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">15.5% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">13.9% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">12.1% </td></tr></tbody></table> Retail investors’ strategy has been just opposite to that of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). FPIs hold more large caps than others and have reduced their holdings in small and midcaps over the years. A hopeful outlook Even as the broader market saw a selloff recently, Nifty itself has suffered less, point out experts. From its peak, the smallcap index is down 13.5% and the midcap index is down 6.8%. But Nifty is stable with a minor cut of 2.1%, says <keyword id="20955398" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dr-vijayakumar" source="keywords">Dr Vijayakumar</keyword>. Most experts expect a correction even in the broader markets going ahead. But they do point out that the market will provide cherry-picking opportunities for investors, as India’s macro fundamentals are intact. <keyword id="19949381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fitch-ratings" source="keywords">Fitch Ratings</keyword> revised its FY24 and FY25 GDP growth forecasts upwards to 7.8% and 7% respectively on Thursday. “Domestic demand, especially investment, will be the main driver of growth, amid sustained levels of business and consumer confidence,” it said, adding that it expects the Indian economy to see ‘strong expansion’. Dr <keyword id="19931026" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vijayakumar" source="keywords">Vijayakumar</keyword> says that the turbulence in the market will provide cherry-picking opportunities. “From now on irrational exuberance will take a back seat and rational valuations and quality will be the driving force. This turbulence will separate the men from the boys. High-quality private sector banks and the leading names in capital goods, telecom and autos can be accumulated in a calibrated manner,” he adds.

Boom2Bust: Retail investors to face the brunt as small and midcap corrections wipe out billions of dollars

Benchmark indices <keyword id="6354813" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nifty" source="Orion">Nifty</keyword> and Sensex recovered from their losses last week to close in greens on Monday. While Sensex inched up over 690 points to close at 79,476.63 points, Nifty closed the day over the 24k mark, at 24,213.30, up by 217 points. During the day, Sensex had soared 740.89 points, or 0.94%, to touch 79,523.13 points. From the 30-share Sensex pack, JSW Steel surged nearly 5% while Tata Steel jumped nearly 4%. Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, HDFC Bank, State Bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and UltraTech Cement were also among the big gainers. On the other hand, Tech Mahindra, Lupin, Britannia, and Infosys were among the major laggards on Sensex. On Nifty, where 39 stocks advanced during the day and the remaining 11 saw declines, Tata Steel, Hindalco, and JSW Steel were among the top gainers. Adani Ports, ITC, Bharti Airtel, and Asian Paints were among the leading laggards. In Asian markets, Tokyo, Shanghai, and Hong Kong settled in the positive territory, while Seoul ended lower. Yesterday, the BSE benchmark tumbled 941.88 points, or 1.18%, to settle at 78,782.24, the lowest closing level since August 6. The Nifty had also tanked 309 points, or 1.27%, to close at 23,995.35. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued with their hefty exodus, offloading equities worth Rs 4,329.79 crore today, according to exchange data. So far in November, DIIs (domestic institutional investors) have put in Rs 2,558.75 crore in Indian markets. Global oil benchmark Brent crude climbed 0.60% to $75.53 a barrel today. <h2>Banks, metals lead the party</h2> Aditya Gaggar, Director of Progressive Shares, explains that while bears dominated the first half of trading session by dragging the index lower; it was the banking counters that led to a sharp up move and pushed the index higher from its previous session's low. The Metal stocks also joined the party and pushed the index further higher to end the session at 24,213.30 with gains of 217.95 points. Mid and smallcaps also advanced but underperformed the frontline index", he added. Today's rally was largely led by banking scrips. The BSE Bankex jumped a staggering 1,218.58 points during the day. On NSE, both banks and financial services indices inched up by 1.94% and 1.98% respectively during the day. While PSU bank counters were up by 1.84%, private banks surged ahead with a 1.94% growth during the day. Metals were amidst the highest gainers, rising 2.84% during the day. All broad market indices closed the day in green, except for India VIX, which tumbled 4.08%.

Sensex, and Nifty rebound to greens, metals and banks lead the rally on bourses today

<ul><li>Equity benchmark Sensex rallied nearly 500 points to reclaim the 74,000 mark while the <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> closed above the 22,550 level on Thursday.</li><li>The 30-share <keyword id="19950208" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BSE-Sensex" source="keywords">BSE Sensex</keyword> climbed 486.50 points or 0.66 per cent to settle at 74,339.44.</li><li>SBI, NTPC, Nestle, Sun Pharma, JSW Steel, ITC, and HCL Tech were among the other major gainers.</li></ul>Rising for the fifth straight session, equity benchmark Sensex rallied nearly 500 points to reclaim the 74,000 mark while the Nifty closed above the 22,550 level on Thursday, driven by heavy buying in banking, financial and metal stocks. Recovering after a sell-off in early trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 486.50 points or 0.66 per cent to settle at 74,339.44. During the day, it surged 718.31 points or 0.97 per cent to 74,571.25. The NSE Nifty advanced 167.95 points or 0.75 per cent to 22,570.35. From the Sensex basket, Axis Bank jumped 6 per cent after the company reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 7,599 crore during the March 2024 quarter. State Bank of India, NTPC, Nestle, Sun Pharma, JSW Steel, ITC, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra and HCL Technologies were among the other major gainers. <keyword id="19938495" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kotak-Mahindra-Bank" source="keywords">Kotak Mahindra Bank</keyword> tanked 10.85 per cent after the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> barred the company from onboarding customers online and issuing credit cards. Cracking down on repeated non-compliance with IT norms, the RBI on Wednesday barred Kotak Mahindra Bank from onboarding new customers through its online and mobile banking channels and issuing fresh credit cards with immediate effect after the regulator found "serious deficiencies" in the lender's IT risk management. "The market breadth was strong, with oil prices correcting due to easing conflict in the Middle East and weakening US demand. Domestic broader market was buoyed by the PMI data, with an improvement in discretionary spending. Further, the RBI's regulatory ecosystem on private banks led the PSU banks to outperform. The global market largely traded on a mixed note and is now focused on earning reports, with initial reports suggesting a disappointing outlook for technology stocks, which led to the US yield inching higher," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services. Hindustan Unilever, Titan, Bajaj Finance, Maruti and Asian Paints were the other laggards. In Asian markets, Seoul and Tokyo settled lower while Shanghai and Hong Kong ended in the positive territory. European markets were trading on a mixed note. Wall Street ended on a mixed note on Wednesday. "The Nifty gained 168 points over the day to close at 22,570. Expectedly a volatile expiry today as the Nifty witnessed a swing of 125 points from around the level of 22,500. The going has been tough both for the bulls and bears as the market has been unable to move in a free flowing manner. This is applicable mainly for the frontline indices as the strength in the broader markets has been far more cleaner &amp; stronger. The Nifty Small Cap 100 Index once again hit a new lifetime high (16,899) in today’s trading session. The broader markets outperformed as compared to the mainline indices," said Tejas Shah, Technical Research, JM Financial &amp; BlinkX. Global oil benchmark Brent crude climbed 0.06 per cent to USD 88.07 a barrel. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 2,511.74 crore on Wednesday, according to exchange data. The BSE benchmark rose 114.49 points or 0.16 per cent to settle at 73,852.94 on Wednesday. The NSE Nifty advanced 34.40 points or 0.15 per cent to 22,402.40. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/jiocinema-introduces-new-ad-free-premium-plans-starting-at-29/articleshow/109581033.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/jiocinema-introduces-new-ad-free-premium-plans-starting-at-29/articleshow/109581033.cms" target="_blank">An Ambani disruption in OTT: At just ₹1 per day, you can now enjoy ad-free content on JioCinema</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/realme-narzo-70-narzo-70x-5g-smartphones-launched-in-india-starting-at-11999/articleshow/109557895.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/realme-narzo-70-narzo-70x-5g-smartphones-launched-in-india-starting-at-11999/articleshow/109557895.cms" target="_blank">Realme Narzo 70, Narzo 70X 5G smartphones launched in India starting at ₹11,999</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/apple-let-loose-event-scheduled-for-may-7-ipads-expected-to-be-launched/articleshow/109553148.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/apple-let-loose-event-scheduled-for-may-7-ipads-expected-to-be-launched/articleshow/109553148.cms" target="_blank">Apple Let Loose event scheduled for May 7 – New iPad models expected to be launched</a>

Markets extend gains for 5th session; Sensex revisits 74k

In a recent notification, the <keyword id="20004725" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="NSE" source="keywords">NSE</keyword> (National Stock Exchange) noted that markets will remain closed on Wednesday, November 20, 2024, on account of state elections taking place in Maharashtra. However, <keyword id="19895774" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BSE" source="keywords">BSE</keyword> has issued no notification on this matter so far. However, given how both the exchanges largely operate in sync, BSE is likely to declare a holiday as well. Before the elections, both BSE and NSE will be shut for trading on November 15 as well, on account of <keyword id="23718443" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Guru-Nanak-Jayanti" source="keywords">Guru Nanak Jayanti</keyword>. Next month, the bourses will remain closed for regular trade on Christmas, i.e., December 25. Earlier this week, Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) mandated that all businesses and workplaces in Mumbai should grant paid leave on November 20, 2024, to all its employees so that they can participate in state elections. Failure to do so could mean penalties for employers. All the 288 states in the Maharashtra state assembly are set to go to polls in a single phase on November 20. <h2>Markets close the week on muted note </h2>Both Nifty and Sensex closed the week on a damp note, with Nifty dipping 0.21% to close at 24,148.20 points. On the other hand, Sensex also slipped below the 80,000 mark to close the week at 79,486.32 points. Of the 50 stocks that constitute Nifty, 23 stocks advanced during the day, while 27 saw declines. However, this week has not been all that bad for the markets, with Nifty rising 0.31% and Sensex inching up 0.65% during the last 5 days. All broad market indices fell during today's trade, with smallcaps falling by over 1.5%, while midcaps also closed the day over 1% down. As for sectoral indices, most of them ended the week in reds, with realty and media losing over 2% during trading today. Pharmaceuticals, healthcare, and consumer durables recorded marginal upticks during the day, inching up by 0.07%, 0.22%, and 0.41%, respectively. FIIs (<keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword>) continued their selling spree today as well. In this month so far, FIIs have been net cash sellers, offloading around Rs 16,445.49 crore. DIIs (domestic institutional investors) have stepped in to maintain some balance by becoming net buyers worth Rs 12,265.74 crore in November till date. Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities, explains that global market sentiment saw sharp volatility in the aftermath of Republicans winning all three branches of the US government, resulting in rising US bond yields and the dollar, as well as the US equity markets beating most EMs. Meanwhile, the Q2 FY25 earnings season continued to remain weak, with more misses than hits observed. <keyword id="20993056" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FPI-flows" source="keywords">FPI flows</keyword> are expected to remain volatile for some time to come. Amidst emerging markets, only Brazil saw inflows worth $115 million between November 1 and 7, 2024.

Markets to remain shut on November 20 due to Maharashtra elections

Benchmark <keyword id="19963565" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-indices" source="keywords">equity indices</keyword> <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> and <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> hit their fresh all-time closing high levels on Monday, tracking <keyword id="20072947" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-fund-inflows" source="keywords">foreign fund inflows</keyword> and a rally in the <keyword id="20577663" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-markets" source="keywords">US markets</keyword>. The US rate cut hopes and renewed foreign fund inflows are fuelling the recent rally in domestic equities, traders said. Surging for the 10th straight session, the 30-share <keyword id="19950208" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BSE-Sensex" source="keywords">BSE Sensex</keyword> jumped 194.07 points or 0.24 % to settle at an all-time closing high of 82,559.84. During the day, it surged 359.51 points or 0.43 % to reach a new intra-day record peak of 82,725.28. The <keyword id="19950205" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSE-Nifty" source="keywords">NSE Nifty</keyword> climbed 42.80 points or 0.17 % to settle at a lifetime closing high of 25,278.70, taking its winning run to the 13th day in a row. During the day, it soared 97.75 points or 0.38 % to hit a fresh all-time intra-day peak of 25,333.65. Among the 30 Sensex firms, <keyword id="19950210" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bajaj-Finserv" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bajaj Finserv" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bajaj Finserv">Bajaj Finserv</keyword>, Bajaj Finance, HCL Tech, IndusInd Bank, ITC, UltraTech Cement, Axis Bank and Infosys were the biggest gainers. On the other hand, Tata Motors, NTPC, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, Larsen &amp; Toubro and Power Grid were among the laggards. In Asian markets, Seoul and Tokyo settled in the positive territory, while Shanghai and Hong Kong ended lower. European markets were trading in the negative territory. The US markets ended higher on Friday. Foreign Institutional Investors (<keyword id="19950996" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FIIs" source="keywords">FIIs</keyword>) bought equities worth Rs 5,318.14 crore on Friday, according to exchange data. "The market has entered a zone of steady but mild up-move caused by the accumulation of quality large-caps. FIIs turning buyers last week mainly due to some large bulk deals also has improved sentiments in the market," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services. Global oil benchmark <keyword id="20025497" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Brent-crude" source="keywords">Brent crude</keyword> climbed 0.14 % to USD 77.04 a barrel. Gross GST collections in August grew 10 % to about Rs 1.75 lakh crore, reflecting higher domestic consumption. In its best winning streak since its launch in 1996, the NSE Nifty soared 83.95 points or 0.33 % to hit a new lifetime closing high of 25,235.90, taking its victorious run to the 12th day in a row. Said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities, "today, the benchmark indices registered a fresh all time high of 25,333.65/82,725.28, the Nifty ends 43 points higher while the Sensex was up by 194 points. Among Sectors, FMCG index rallied 0.88% whereas Metal index shed over 1%. Technically, after gap up opening market witnessed some intraday profit booking at higher levels. "However, the short-term texture of the market is still in to the positive side. Additionally, on intraday charts market is still holding higher high and higher low series formation, which supports further uptrend from the current levels. We are of the view that, 25200/82350 would act as a sacrosanct support zone for the day traders. As long as it is trading above the same, the bullish sentiment is likely to continue. On the higher side, it could move up till 25,400-25,425/82800-83000. On the flip side, below 25,200/82,350 traders may prefer to exit out from the trading long positions. Below the same, the market could slip till 25,100-25,050/82,000-81,800", he continued.

Sensex, Nifty hit fresh all-time high levels, as Sensex closes over 82k, Nifty crosses 25k mark

Benchmark <keyword id="21922275" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stock-indices" source="keywords">stock indices</keyword> <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> and <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> retracted from lifetime highs to settle lower on Friday due to profit-taking in frontline stocks <keyword id="19895995" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HDFC-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HDFC Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="HDFC Bank">HDFC Bank</keyword> and <keyword id="19900482" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICICI-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ICICI Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ICICI Bank">ICICI Bank</keyword>. The BSE Sensex declined 264.27 points or 0.31 per cent to settle at 85,571.85. During the day, it climbed 142.13 points or 0.16 per cent to reach a new record intra-day peak of 85,978.25. The NSE Nifty dipped 37.10 points or 0.14 per cent to 26,178.95 after rising 61.3 points or 0.23 per cent to an all-time intra-day high of 26,277.35 during the day. From the 30 Sensex firms, Power Grid, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Larsen &amp; Toubro, Adani Ports and UltraTech Cement were among the laggards. Sun Pharma, Reliance Industries, Titan, HCL Technologies and Bajaj Finserv were among the biggest gainers. "Following the recent impressive surge, the benchmark indices experienced a sideways movement today as investors engaged in profit booking at elevated levels," Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services said. In <keyword id="20155107" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Asian-markets" source="keywords">Asian markets</keyword>, Tokyo, Shanghai, and Hong Kong settled sharply higher while Seoul ended lower. European markets were trading in the green. The US markets ended in positive territory on Thursday. <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Foreign-Institutional-Investors" source="keywords">Foreign Institutional Investors</keyword> (FIIs) turned buyers on Thursday as they bought equities worth Rs 629.96 crore, according to exchange data. <keyword id="20234284" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Domestic-Institutional-Investors" source="keywords">Domestic Institutional Investors</keyword> (DIIs) also bought equities worth Rs 2,405.12 crore. Global oil benchmark <keyword id="20025497" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Brent-crude" source="keywords">Brent crude</keyword> dipped 0.03 per cent to USD 71.58 a barrel. The BSE benchmark jumped 666.25 points or 0.78 per cent to settle at an all-time high of 85,836.12 on Thursday. During the day, it reached a record intra-day peak of 85,930.43, surging 760.56 points or 0.89 per cent. The Nifty climbed 211.90 points or 0.81 per cent to close at a record high of 26,216.05. During the day, it soared 246.75 points or 0.94 per cent to hit a fresh intra-day lifetime peak of 26,250.90.

Sensex, Nifty draw back from lifetime highs on profit taking; HDFC Bank, ICICI major drag

<ul><li>Correction in consumption stocks likely as revenue growth could moderate in 2HFY24 once pricing benefits fade.</li><li>While the valuations of outsourcing sectors appear reasonable compared to history, companies in the sector face both short- and medium-term challenges.</li><li>Foreign capital flows over the last two months largely on account of investments by passive funds due to MSCI rebalancing.</li></ul> The sharp rally in the market has left stock pickers in a quandary as they are struggling to find sectors and stocks that are worth buying. Two months can be a long time in the market. After struggling for months, the rally in stocks in the last two months has made the going difficult for equity strategists and fund houses. Equity strategists say that they are unable to fathom why stocks have been rallying in the last few months. The risks to consumption, especially in rural markets, slowing further are real and that the markets are not currently factoring in the impact that global disruptions can have on India. In its strategy note, <keyword id="152996" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="Kotak-Institutional-Equities" source="Orion">Kotak Institutional Equities</keyword> says, “We struggle to find ideas in the consumption, investment and outsourcing sectors after the sharp run-up in several of our favored sectors and stocks in the past two months. The BFSI sector is the only sector that offers value although even insurance stocks have rallied in the past few days.” Kotak is not alone in its assessment. BNP Paribas is also underweight on the FMCG sector and expects correction. While correction in raw material prices could come to the rescue in the first half of FY24, in 2HFY24 BNP Paribas expects revenue growth to moderate as pricing benefits would fade and growth would have to be volume-led. In addition, El Nino could be a risk and may derail a rural recovery. The secular rally across sectors in the last two months has resulted in rich valuations for the consumption and investment sectors primarily. Most stocks in these sectors are trading at close to or above 12-month fair values, says Kotak Institutional Equities. The strategy report further says: “Valuations of outsourcing sectors may look reasonable versus history but the IT services sector faces both short- and medium-term challenges. Valuations of most BFSI stocks are still attractive despite the recent run-up in insurance stocks.” Why then are the markets rallying, one should ask. After selling India heavily last year, foreign investors have made a comeback and they have helped keep the flag flying high. Foreign portfolio investors who have pumped in Rs 43,000 crore in Indian equities since the start of 2023. In the first two weeks of June, FPIs have invested Rs 16400 crore in stocks. Despite this, the valuations of benchmarks have remained in the fair value zone. Another reason for the benchmark valuation remaining fair is also because some of the heavyweights have not participated in the rally at all. On a headline basis, Indian equities do not look too expensive, but specific stocks are trading at expensive valuations. One of the arguments that equity strategists give is that the money flowing into India is largely passive and, therefore, not much should be read into these flows. Stocks have been rallying on optimism and not necessarily fundamentals. A lot of small and midcap companies in the consumption, investment and financial sectors, but market experts believe that the risks to their earnings and growth are not adequately priced in. Says Kotak, “We struggle to understand the rally in smaller consumption and IT services stocks given continued weak domestic demand (valid for consumption sectors) and weakening global (valid for IT services) demand.” Kotak Institutional Equities is cautious while analysing capital flows into India as it is not a secular return of the prodigal FPIs. In a report, Kotak says, “Equity flows show that the bulk of inflows into India in 2023 could be passive (ETF) flows. Net ETF inflows stood at $3.3 bn in 4MCY23 versus cumulative net FPI inflows of $6 bn in CYTD23. We assume the trend of passive flows would have continued in May and June, given the large net FPI inflows (around US$400 mn) on the MSCI rebalancing day (May 31). Passive inflows would be significantly higher than this figure given the US$3 bn of gross purchases by FPIs on May 31 alone. We assume ‘smart’ (active) investors would have bought ahead of rebalancing day and sold on rebalancing day.”

Are markets losing steam? Kotak Institutional Equities says it’s a struggle to find investment ideas as valuations are not so fair

<ul><li>About ₹1.8 lakh crore of ₹2,000 banknotes have come back, said RBI governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> on Thursday. </li><li>Broadly about 85% of the ₹2,000 banknotes are coming back as bank deposits, he added. </li><li>The average system liquidity is in surplus mode and could increase as ₹2,000 banknotes get deposited in the banks, Das said. </li></ul>Half of India’s ₹2,000 bank notes in circulation are now with banks, said <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) on Thursday. The RBI withdrew <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rbi-to-withdraw-2000-currency-notes-from-circulation-will-continue-to-be-legal-tender/articleshow/100360976.cms">these banknotes on May 19</a> but unlike the demonetisation of ₹500 and ₹1,000 notes earlier, they continue to remain legal tender, and can be exchanged or deposited at banks till September 30. According to RBI, ₹3.62 lakh crore of ₹2000 banknotes were in circulation as of March 31. “After the announcement, about ₹1.8 lakh crore of ₹2,000 banknotes have come back. This is roughly about 50% of the ₹2,000 banknotes, which were in circulation on 31st March...so 50% of the banknotes have come back,” said Shaktikanta Das, the governor of RBI speaking to reporters <keyword id="6375120" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="monetary-policy-committee" source="Orion">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> decision announcement, where the repo rate has been <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rbi-mpc-holds-interest-rate-as-expected-but-stance-maintained-at-withdrawal-of-accommodation/articleshow/100839034.cms">kept unchanged at 6.5%</a>. Das also added that they are still working out as to how much of the ₹2,000 notes has come in as deposits and how much of it was exchanged for other bank notes. “That figure needs reconciling but broadly on a provisional basis about 85% are coming back as deposits into bank accounts,” Das said. Boost for banks Das mentioned in his speech that the note withdrawal could aid deposits. “The average system liquidity, however, is still in surplus mode and could increase as ₹2,000 banknotes get deposited in the banks,” he said. A <keyword id="152996" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="kotak-institutional-equities" source="Orion">Kotak Institutional Equities</keyword> report meanwhile said that it expects as much as ₹1.5-2 lakh crore to make its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/bank-deposits-gold-sales-real-estate-to-get-a-boost-with-2000-note-withdrawal-kotak/articleshow/100429411.cms">way into banks as deposit</a>s, both directly and indirectly. Reports have said that most people are attempting to spend the notes as well by <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/bank-deposits-gold-sales-real-estate-to-get-a-boost-with-2000-note-withdrawal-kotak/articleshow/100429411.cms">purchasing gold, consumer goods</a> and more – which too is expected to make its way to the banks. “Durable liquidity could increase by around ₹1 lakh crore depending on the behaviour of depositors. This should ease the credit-deposit ratio across banks,” said a report by Kotak Institutional Equities released in May. About 64% of the LocalCircles survey respondents said that they do not hold notes in the said denomination. While 6% indicated that they have ₹1 lakh or more in ₹2,000 rupee notes. Moreover, 15% said that they have up to ₹20,000 rupees – which can be exchanged at banks with no hassle.

Half of India’s ₹2,000 notes are back with banks within a month of withdrawal announcement

The foreign portfolio investors have infused Rs 15,420 crore so far this week in the Indian <keyword id="19911354" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-market" source="keywords">equity market</keyword>, according to the data from the <keyword id="20294652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="National-Securities-Depository" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="National Securities Depository" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="National Securities Depository">National Securities Depository</keyword>. The net investment by the foreign portfolio investors (<keyword id="19979726" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FPI" source="keywords">FPI</keyword>) surged to Rs 30,772 crore so far in July indicating the good buying by the <keyword id="19900795" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="foreign-investors" source="keywords">foreign investors</keyword> in the <keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword>. The foreign investors have so far bought equities worth of Rs 1,30,138 crore this year. "FPI flows are expected to remain volatile this week. The markets were strong, led by strong earnings and commentary from the large-cap. This week, the markets of India, Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and South Korea witnessed inflows, while the markets of Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam witnessed outflows" said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research, Kotak Securities. Internationally the foreign investors this week have injected around $585 million in Brazil, $300 million in Indonesia, $324 million in Malaysia and $2,085 million in South Korea. On the other hand, Taiwan witnessed an outflow of $5325 million and Vietnam witnessed a selling of $278 million of foreign investment this week. According to market experts, foreign investors are investing in Indian markets amid a weakening in <keyword id="22484170" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dollar-and-bond-yields" source="keywords">dollar and bond yields</keyword>, and if this trend continues, foreign investment will continue as well. "During the fortnight ending 15th July, FPIs were buyers in autos, capital goods, healthcare, IT, telecom, and oil and gas. A notable trend was the lack of buying in <keyword id="19976433" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-services" source="keywords">financial services</keyword>, which partly explains the poor performance of financial services in July so far. If the recent trend of weakness in dollar and bond yields persists, FPIs are likely to continue their buying in the market," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, at Geojit Financial Services. Foreign Institutional investors were sellers in January, April, and May, cumulatively selling equities worth around Rs 60,000 crores. However, they were buyers in February, March, and June, with cumulative purchases amounting to Rs 63,200 crores.

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Sensex, Nifty hit fresh all-time high levels, as Sensex closes over 82k, Nifty crosses 25k mark

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Sensex, Nifty draw back from lifetime highs on profit taking; HDFC Bank, ICICI major drag

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Are markets losing steam? Kotak Institutional Equities says it’s a struggle to find investment ideas as valuations are not so fair

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Half of India’s ₹2,000 notes are back with banks within a month of withdrawal announcement

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Foreign investors infuse Rs 15,420 crore in Indian markets this week

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