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<ul><li>Though <keyword id="552967" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="tech-stocks">tech stocks</keyword>' rally has outpaced most other sectors, the sector is far from returning to dot-com era levels of overvaluation, <keyword id="4881099" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="keith-lerner">Keith Lerner</keyword>, chief market strategist at <keyword id="320452" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="SunTrust">SunTrust</keyword> Advisory Services, said.</li><li>The tech sector is currently up 35% over the past 12 months. At the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000, the same sector was up more than 100% over the same period.</li><li>The small group of tech giants also contributes a greater share of the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500_500">S&amp;P 500's</a> profits and cash flow, Lerner said. Where the index's top five stocks once counted for just 2% of its free cash flow, they now contribute 22%.</li><li>Tech stocks' rally is largely supported by strong profit growth "rather than the speculative excess that accompanied the 2000 tech bubble," Lerner added.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestutm_source=msn.com&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_content=msn-slideshow&amp;utm_campaign=bodyurlutm_campaign=bodyurl">Visit the Business Insider homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>Investors fearing another tech bubble need not worry, Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at SunTrust Advisory Services, said in a note.Investors continue to drive cash into tech giants, betting the companies are best positioned to ride out the coronavirus pandemic's fallout. The top five tech stocks — <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aapl-stock">Apple</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amzn-stock">Amazon</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/goog-stock">Alphabet</a>, and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/fb-stock">Facebook</a> — now make up roughly 22% of the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500_500">S&amp;P 500</a>. "Concerns of another technology bubble are rising," Lerner said, yet those comparing the current market to that seen during the late-1990s dot-com era are mistaken.To start, the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite is nowhere near the lofty valuations seen just before the tech bubble burst in 2000. The index currently trades 22% above its long-term price trend, well below the 280% deviation seen two decades ago.The tech sector itself also trades more modestly than before. While included stocks traded more than 100% higher year-over-year in 2000, the sector is currently up 35% over the past 12 months."Absolute valuations are elevated but are less than half of the levels reached back then," Lerner added.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-800-million-bank-america-likely-winner-bill-brewster-2020-7">Warren Buffett's $800 million bet on Bank of America is almost a guaranteed winner, Berkshire Hathaway investor Bill Brewster says</a>Tech giants' weighting in major indexes presents a risk for the market, the strategist warned. Should Apple, Amazon, or Facebook disappoint with an upcoming earnings report, the broader market will likely plunge on the news.Still, the small group of stocks currently comprise a greater share of the index's profits and cash flow, Lerner said. The S&amp;P 500's five biggest components comprised 14% of the index in 2000 but only contributed 2% of its overall cash flow. Today, the top five picks take up 22% of the S&amp;P 500 and contribute the same share of free cash flow.Judging tech stocks by their price-earnings ratios also suggests they're far from reaching dot-com-bubble levels. The height of the tech boom saw shares trade with a 2.3x premium to the S&amp;P 500 on a trailing price-earnings basis, Lerner highlighted. The sector currently trades at a 1.3x premium by the same metric. Forward-looking multiples tell a similar story. Tech stocks trade at a lower premium than at any point during the pre-financial crisis bull market.Lastly, tech giants largely boast stronger fundamentals amid the coronavirus pandemic than the rest of the S&amp;P 500. Where the index's forward earnings-per-share guidance tanked at the start of the outbreak, the tech sector's largely held strong and is close to retaking record highs. The group's weekslong rally is mostly backed up by resilient profit growth "rather than the speculative excess that accompanied the 2000 tech bubble," Lerner said.Now read more <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword> coverage from Markets Insider and Business Insider:<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/gold-price-record-inflation-fears-safe-haven-demand-recession-analyst-2020-7-1029434179">Gold prices can soar to a record $2,000 on inflation fears and safe-haven demand, analyst says</a><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-5-reasons-prices-jump-further-coronavirus-economy-2020-7-1029430241">A top Wall Street analyst lays out 5 reasons why stocks can climb another 5% before year-end, even in a choppy market</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picks-to-buy-cheap-ways-to-invest-economic-recovery-2020-7">Jefferies is telling investors to buy these 13 cheap, under-the-radar stocks in order to bet on an economic recovery</a>

Tech stock rally is far from repeating the 1990s dot-com bubble, SunTrust says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks stumbled heading into the election, but a rebound should be in order.</li><li>The S&amp;P 500 has an outstanding track record after major rallies in the first 10 months.</li></ul>More than seven decades' worth of data suggest that US stocks will end 2024 on a high note.Investors have been locked in on what's certain to be <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-watch-for-election-day-harris-trump-congress-2024-11">a consequential election</a>, though the outcome is unlikely to keep equities from charging higher — if history is any indication.The S&amp;P 500 rose about 20% through October, which was its best performance in an election year since at least 1952, according to a new report from Truist. That gain was fueled by resilient economic growth, lower inflation, and interest rates that fell to less burdensome levels.<div type="image" title="Truist election year returns" height="990" width="1640" msid="115015356" hostid="261" sizebytes="31762"></div>Stocks have had a rather smooth ride for much of the year, except for a pair of short pullbacks. However, volatility has, predictably, risen substantially in the weeks leading up to the election.But even after an outstanding run and a recent bout of choppy trading, past precedent implies that the market's path of least resistance is higher.<h2 id="ca0b86ce-c524-40f4-920b-3e5d5659c070">Why another year-end rally is ahead</h2>November and December have historically been kind to stocks, as they're both among the five best months in markets, <a target="_blank" href="https://yardeni.com/charts/sp-500-historical-monthly-annual-returns/">based on average returns</a>. Equities rally across those two final months 77% of the time, Truist's research shows, and election years aren't much different."The final two months of the year tend to be positive, whether that's an election year or not," wrote Keith Lerner, the chief market strategist at Truist, in a November 4 note.Even more encouraging for investors is what usually happens after massive market surges.When the S&amp;P 500 rises at least 15% through October, as it did this year, the index has built on that gain in the next two months in 19 of the 20 previous such instances — or 95% of the time — since 1950, Truist found. The typical gain in those scenarios was close to 5%.<div type="image" title="Truist year-end rally returns" height="998" width="1310" msid="115015348" hostid="261" sizebytes="22514"></div>Contrary to what bears might say, record highs usually continue to bequeath more record highs, according to Truist. That flies in the face of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-why-sp500-decade-weak-returns-goldman-jpmorgan-2024-11">the belief that stocks are overdue for a downturn</a>.<div type="image" title="Highs on highs" height="990" width="1640" msid="115015351" hostid="261" sizebytes="41676"></div>Of course, US stocks can't steadily rise forever. Drawdowns are inevitable, as Lerner noted that the S&amp;P 500 typically pulls back by 5% or more three times per year. There have only been two such selloffs this year, which is why the strategy chief is watching for another after the election."The weight of the evidence suggests the primary market trends remain positive, even while we expect to see periodic pullbacks along the way," Lerner wrote.<h2 id="c0f461cd-cb83-42a3-89f0-354c06d249e6">Examining the evidence behind the bull case</h2>The market's strong track record in November and December isn't the only reason Lerner and his colleagues feel confident.One key catalyst is another successful earnings season. With nearly 80% of third-quarter results in the books, Bank of America found that corporate profits have risen about 6% year-over-year. Earnings growth topped expectations by 2% as of early November, according to the firm.<div type="image" title="Truist Q3 2024 earnings" height="838" width="1640" msid="115015354" hostid="261" sizebytes="41834"></div>Higher profits can lay the groundwork for further gains by helping justify the market's ambitious valuation. The S&amp;P 500's forward earnings multiple is north of 21x — well above its long-term average of 15.8x. However, neither the equal-weight index <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-small-mid-caps-market-rotation-outlook-bmo-2024-10">nor smaller stocks</a> are overly pricey.<div type="image" title="Truist stock vals" height="1022" width="1640" msid="115015358" hostid="261" sizebytes="46062"></div>History teaches that earnings — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-election-strategy-trump-harris-stock-market-outlook-2024-10">not politicians</a> — ultimately determine where stocks go.<div type="image" title="Truist returns by president" height="994" width="1640" msid="115015360" hostid="261" sizebytes="53160"></div>"Despite election noise, the US continues to lead in innovation and earnings, built on the foundation laid by resilient and inclusive institutions," Lerner wrote.The strategy chief later said: "Technology has been toward the top [of sector returns] under all three [of the most recent] presidents, likely because that's where the earnings growth has been."Lower interest rates should be another significant tailwind for stocks. In the last 35 years, the S&amp;P 500 has logged a double-digit gain 12 months after the Federal Reserve's first rate cut every time unless the economy was in a recession.<div type="image" title="Truist lower interest rates rally" height="992" width="1640" msid="115015349" hostid="261" sizebytes="40540"></div><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-outlook-tariffs-trump-trade-war-slowdown-jpmorgan-david-kelly-2024-10">Economic growth looks strong</a>, so an imminent contraction shouldn't be a concern. Inflation is also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">heading in the right direction, albeit slowly</a>. And there are other reasons for excitement, in Lerner's view, including the productivity benefits that artificial intelligence can bring.Pair those present drivers with strong past returns, and the future doesn't look so scary."Our view is the ability of the Fed to engineer a soft economic landing and the path of inflation and interest rates as well as artificial intelligence will have a greater impact on markets than the results of the 2024 election," Lerner wrote.

History says US stocks have a 95% chance of finishing the year strong — no matter who gets elected

Hi! Forget flying cars, we've got laser beams! The UK has tested a laser weapon that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-says-tested-laser-beam-weapon-multiple-targets-neutralize-drones-2024-7">eliminates targets for $0.12 a shot</a>.In today's big story, we're looking at another Tesla earnings report that was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-tsla-earnings-call-report-live-updates-2024-7">light on details about big future plans</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: How the "Zynpocalypse" is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-wall-street-is-handling-the-zyn-shortage-2024-7">shaking Wall Street to its core</a>.</li><li>Tech: The key people who helped Nvidia evolve from a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-power-players-leaders-ai-chip-giant-success-2024-7">niche video game graphics company to an AI giant</a>.</li><li>Business: Overcoming an outdated building code could be key <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/single-stair-apartments-condos-housing-crisis-solution-rent-home-prices-2024-7">in the fight to fix the housing crisis</a>.</li></ul>But first, we're talking big picture.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="307d450f-196f-4c0f-9cf7-e9a4914f77d3">The big story</h3><h2 id="b89690b2-4c69-46bd-bb8d-3586150f1521">Tesla's unspecific future</h2><div type="image" title="Elon musk shattered glass" height="900" width="1200" msid="111992680" hostid="261" sizebytes="109960"></div>Like a magic trick seen too many times, Tesla's strategy of touting future plans in the face of difficult fundamentals is losing its luster with investors.The EV maker's earnings per share <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-tsla-earnings-call-report-live-updates-2024-7">missed estimates for the fourth straight quarter</a> on Tuesday. But Elon Musk can often <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-meta-earnings-prove-power-of-musk-word-despite-promises-2024-4">help the market overlook bad numbers</a> by shifting focus to what's next.The approach worked well last quarter when Tesla's earnings report <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-earnings-wall-street-ev-elon-musk-disappointing-hybrids-robotaxis-2024-4">was even worse than expected</a>. Talk of the Robotaxi, full self-driving technology, and a cheaper Tesla vehicle helped the EV maker enjoy <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-elon-musk-turnaround-ev-maker-market-rally-2024-7">a nice market rally the past few months</a> after a difficult start to the year.However, big-picture plans without concrete details fell flat for investors this time around. Tesla's shares dropped more than 8% at one point in after-hours trading Tuesday. As Business Insider's Katherine Tangalakis-Lippert and Hannah Getahun write, that's probably got <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-seemed-nervous-during-tesla-earnings-call-2024-7">Musk feeling a little nervous</a>.Even one of the big takeaways from last quarter — a Robotaxi event in August — was confirmed by Musk to be delayed to October 10.Meanwhile, Musk was light on specifics about when Robotaxi trips will be possible (he'll be "shocked" if the first ride doesn't happen next year) or what a more affordable Tesla model would look like.Musk somewhat acknowledged his tendency to make big promises for plans without backing them up."My predictions on this have been overly optimistic in the past," he said in response to a question about the first Robotaxi ride.<div type="image" title="elon musk side by side" height="1000" width="2000" msid="111992685" hostid="261" sizebytes="176062"></div>It wasn't all bad news for Tesla.The EV maker beat revenue estimates, posting $25.5 billion for the quarter. But that was buoyed by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-earnings-regulatory-credit-sales-2024-7">doubling its regulatory credit revenues</a> from the first quarter to $890 million, writes BI's Nora Naughton.It's Tesla's silver lining amid the EV market slowdown. With fewer EV sales, car makers rely on buying Tesla's excess credits or facing hefty penalties.But as beneficial as competitors were to Tesla this quarter, others seem to be gearing up for battle. Alphabet announced a "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/alphabet-is-pouring-billions-into-waymos-self-driving-vehicles-2024-7">multi-year investment of $5 billion</a>" in Waymo, its self-driving car service, writes BI's Jordan Hart.Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said Waymo has provided over 50,000 paid autonomous rides each week in San Francisco and Phoenix.Waymo has had its own issues, including <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/alphabet-is-pouring-billions-into-waymos-self-driving-vehicles-2024-7">issuing a recall earlier this year</a>. But the tech giant's intention to focus on the space could pose more problems for Tesla.<h2 id="ad6978a0-139b-48cf-a063-6102bf761a5c">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo collage of Zyn and the workplace." height="975" width="1300" msid="111992682" hostid="261" sizebytes="93524"></div><ol><li>Supply and demand, under the Zynfluence. Wall Street's favorite nicotine pouch hit a supply-chain snag earlier this year. To cope with the shortage, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-wall-street-is-handling-the-zyn-shortage-2024-7">some bankers tested out alternatives</a>, while others quit the drug completely</li><li>A playbook for navigating market chaos. Truist's investment chief and chief market strategist sees US stocks getting choppier in the months ahead as the tech sector cools. But Keith Lerner says there are opportunities in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-stock-market-outlook-election-investing-strategy-truist-2024-7">communication services and utilities</a>, among other areas.</li><li>More data to give the economy a boost. The release of second-quarter GDP data on Thursday and the June PCE index on Friday could <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-q2-gdp-pce-earnings-drive-stocks-higher-2024-7">keep the market rally going</a>, according to market vet Ed Yardeni. More strong earnings reports will also help quiet bearish investors.</li></ol><h2 id="1d293a33-94db-4070-a924-daded3f2a999">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Nvidia CEO with the wall street bull" height="1500" width="2000" msid="111992675" hostid="261" sizebytes="162924"></div><ol><li>These 13 people transformed Nvidia into the powerhouse chipmaker it is today. Nvidia grew from a video game graphics company to an AI giant dominating the semiconductor market. BI profiled <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-power-players-leaders-ai-chip-giant-success-2024-7">Jensen Huang and 12 other people instrumental in its rise</a>.</li><li>Big Tech execs discuss the use of AI in Hollywood. Executives from Nvidia, AWS, Microsoft, and Paramount convened at the Digital Hollywood summit to talk about how to use AI — and the use cases go beyond <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-change-hollywood-industrial-light-magic-rob-bredow-star-wars-2023-10">reverse-aging famous actors</a>. BI rounded up <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hollywood-execs-embrace-ai-startups-nvidia-microsoft-paramount-amazon-2024-7">seven of the startups AI and entertainment leaders have their eyes on</a>.</li><li>Google really wants its workers to find AI's "golden prompts." The company held a competition for employees to pitch prompts for its new Workspace product. The prize? <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-workspace-ai-prompts-gemini-2024-7">Gold bomber jackets and spot bonuses</a> for workers with the best ideas.</li></ol><h2 id="83144a90-91dc-41c6-917d-0480b877affb">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="A collage of a picture of money in the shape of a staircase over a photo of an apartment building" height="1500" width="2000" msid="111992673" hostid="261" sizebytes="265992"></div><ol><li>A small change in building codes could revolutionize US housing. Most US apartment buildings require two sets of stairs for buildings more than three stories tall. But do we really need two stairwells? Some industry experts argue a one-stairwell requirement would suffice, and lead to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/single-stair-apartments-condos-housing-crisis-solution-rent-home-prices-2024-7">more units, lower prices, and better design</a>.</li><li>The superrich are renters just like the rest of us. It just costs them a lot more. Two residential buildings in New York charge more than $100,000 a month for some apartments, a sign of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/super-luxury-apartments-rent-rentals-2024-7">shifting preferences among the ultra-wealthy</a>. These buildings offer hotel-like amenities, designer furnishings, and a perfect match for the billionaire commitment-phobe.</li><li>Google won't kill off cookies, but the ad industry shouldn't celebrate just yet. This week, Google abandoned its plan to eliminate third-party cookies. While the announcement initially sparked relief, some in the ad industry wonder if <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-admits-defeat-cookie-plan-relief-could-be-short-lived-2024-7">Google still intends to effectively deprecate cookies</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="fe22a3b3-d64e-4cc6-a776-3b821898c340">In other news</h2><ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/secret-service-director-resigns-trump-assassination-attempt-kimberly-cheatle-2024-7">Embattled Secret Service director resigns after Trump assassination attempt</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-tech-issues-ai-big-tech-crypto-silicon-valley-2024-7">Here's where Kamala Harris stands on tech issues including AI, Big Tech, and crypto</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/review-working-amazon-software-engineer-pros-cons-2024-7">My honest review of working at Amazon for 7 1/2 years as a software engineer</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/heres-how-much-it-costs-to-be-hot-beauty-cosmetics-2024-7">It's expensive to be 'hot' in 2024</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/spotify-stock-price-record-profit-2nd-quarter-subscriber-growth-streaming-2024-7">Spotify jumps 14% after the music-streaming giant reports record profit in the 2nd quarter</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pablos-holman-vc-inventor-deep-future-tech-2024-7">This scientist who worked for Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates is now a VC funding other 'mad scientists.'</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/peacock-subscriber-loss-first-comcast-churn-olympics-nfl-2024-7">Peacock's NFL subscriber bump looks like it's over</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-billionaires-pause-800-million-utopian-city-california-forever-2024-7">Silicon Valley billionaires press pause on plans for $800 million utopian city amid growing tensions with county</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-leads-for-new-agents-tiktok-speed-tours-2024-7">A 19-year-old real-estate agent has found an ingenious new way to sell homes and make money</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="12eebe16-b452-45f1-9a08-aa047d032b9e">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>President Biden gives his first speech since dropping out of the presidential race at 8 p.m. EDT.</li><li>Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses US Congress.</li><li>Some Olympic sporting events begin, two days before the Paris opening ceremony.</li><li>IBM, AT&amp;T, Ford Motors, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar">other companies</a> are reporting.</li><li>New <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/samsung-copies-look-apple-watch-ultra-airpods-2024-7">Samsung devices</a>, including <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech/samsung-galaxy-z-fold-6-flip-6-release-date-price-features-specs">foldable smartphones</a> and the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/samsung-galaxy-ring-ai-finger-wearables-apple-intelligence-iphone-2024-7">Galaxy Ring fitness tracker</a>, are available for purchase in the US.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Annie Smith, associate producer, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

Tesla keeps touting future plans. But without specific details, investors aren't buying it. 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Hello! My last name might end in a vowel, but I still learned something from this Michelin-starred chef pointing out <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/red-flags-how-to-spot-good-italian-restaurant-from-chef">red flags to look for at nice Italian restaurants</a>. (Although, I take issue with calling it "sauce" instead of "gravy.")In today's big story, we're looking at President Joe Biden <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-debate-democrats-family-meeting-swing-states-election-2024-7">showing no signs of giving up his reelection campaign</a> while former President Donald Trump <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/supreme-court-trump-immunity-january-6-election-ruling-decision-2024-5">secured a win from the Supreme Court</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: One bank strategist <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/truist-downgrade-tech-sector-overweight-neutral-overvalued-communication-services-utilites-2024-7">downgrades the red-hot tech sector</a>.</li><li>Tech: OpenAI thinks it has a solution to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-searching-bugs-code-generated-chatgpt-criticgpt-sam-altman-2024-7">ChatGPT's coding mistakes</a>.</li><li>Business: There's a problem with new homes in America: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-are-new-homes-ugly-construction-builders-design-materials-architecture-2024-7">They are all ugly</a>.</li></ul>But first, he's not leaving.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="ccecc670-5b2a-4f34-89f2-e6ed8ec4fd0a">The big story</h3><h2 id="074aa24c-45f3-4a6f-a954-dc734726f339">Biden won't back down</h2><div type="image" title="President Biden" height="1500" width="2000" msid="111436395" hostid="261" sizebytes="116022"></div>President Joe Biden knew he'd have to put up a fight this year to keep his seat, but he likely didn't realize it'd come before November's election.Despite a growing chorus of doubters, the president is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-debate-democrats-family-meeting-swing-states-election-2024-7">digging in his heels over his decision to run for reelection</a>, writes Business Insider's John L. Dorman.Biden's campaign has been in full-blown crisis mode after <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-biden-trump-debate-takeaways-2024-6">the president's disastrous debate</a> against former President Donald Trump last week.Criticism about Biden's age and ability to serve another four years, previously <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-house-biden-debate-concerns-step-down-2024-6">only whispered about by supporters behind closed doors</a>, was loud and public in the immediate aftermath.Biden's aides have done their best to defend the president's performance, with one report suggesting the debate was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-debate-aides-struggles-function-after-4-p-m-2024-7">held outside the hours when he's usually at his best</a>. But experts said spinning Biden's struggles as a one-off to voters <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-defense-disaster-debate-backfire-experts-say-2024-7">will ultimately backfire</a>.Still, the president seems intent on staying put. Despite the increased pressure to drop out, Biden's family has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jill-biden-vows-continue-fighting-reelection-2024-7">reportedly urged him to stay in the race</a>. If he did give up the nomination, it would only be if he was offered a "dignified way out," <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-only-step-aside-offered-dignified-way-out-trump-nyt-2024-7">according to The New York Times</a>.<div type="image" title="Donald Trump and the Supreme Court" height="1000" width="2000" msid="111436398" hostid="261" sizebytes="115658"></div>Biden bowing out wouldn't alleviate Democrats' problems.Who would fill in for Biden on the Democrats' 2024 presidential ticket comes with its own issues.A Biden campaign manager reportedly said if the president steps aside <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-aide-top-donors-cash-kamala-harris-if-he-quits-2024-7?utm_source=Iterable&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=campaign_Insider%20Today,%20July%201,%202024">his war chest would mostly go to Vice President Kamala Harris</a>. But in some Democratic circles, the VP isn't being pitched as the best substitute for Biden.Governors Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer are among the Democrats who have been floated <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-reelection-democrats-harris-newsom-whitmer-klobuchar-booker-cooper-moore-2024-2">to fill in for Biden</a>. That chatter has reportedly left Harris' camp frustrated that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-biden-debate-newsom-whitmer-reaction-2024-6">she isn't considered the obvious pick</a>.Meanwhile, Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/supreme-court-trump-immunity-january-6-election-ruling-decision-2024-5">secured a big win in his immunity case</a>. The Supreme Court ruled that former presidents don't get absolute immunity from criminal charges related to actions under the scope of the presidency, but they do get some.That decision is set to be pivotal in Trump's January 6-related indictment, with the court making clear <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jack-smith-donald-trump-presidential-immunity-prosecutions-survive-scotus-barely-2024-7">some areas of the case can't proceed</a>. The president is also looking to use the ruling to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tests-limits-scotus-immunity-ruling-wants-manhattan-conviction-tossed-2024-7">throw out his Manhattan conviction</a>.But the case could have bigger implications than just Trump. Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote in a dissenting opinion that the ruling created a "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-immunity-supreme-court-sotomayor-president-assassinate-rival-2024-7">law-free zone around the President</a>" whereby they could order the assassination of a political rival without facing prosecution.<h2 id="3e65b010-5517-4ec1-8006-f431db78b6c1">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Donald Trump in front of a red downward-trending line" height="900" width="1200" msid="111436393" hostid="261" sizebytes="74616"></div><ol><li>Trump's policies are an "elixir for stagflation," JPMorgan's strategy chief warns. David Kelly sounded the alarm on the potential shocks Trump's trade and immigration policies could have on the economy. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-recession-trump-policy-tariff-immigration-deportation-economy-outlook-jpmorgan-2024-7">Sweeping tariffs and mass deportations could trigger a recession</a>, he said.</li><li>How a new $1 billion hedge fund is looking to stand out. Former Millennium exec Jonathan Xiong <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/asia-based-arrowpoint-investment-partners-launches-with-1-billion-2024-6">has his work cut out for him with the launch of Arrowpoint</a>. The Asia-based multistrategy fund has big-name backers, like Blackstone and Canada's largest pension, but faces a crowded field where heavyweights like Citadel and Millennium dominate.</li><li>Truist cools on tech. Keith Lerner, Truist Wealth's chief strategist and co-chief investment officer, downgraded the firm's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/truist-downgrade-tech-sector-overweight-neutral-overvalued-communication-services-utilites-2024-7">rating on the tech sector from overweight to neutral</a>. He's still bullish on the space but views valuations as overvalued, seeing value in communication services and utilities instead.</li></ol><h2 id="ead46f3f-ea35-4469-964f-fe68946b7b5c">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="supreme court at twilight" height="736" width="1106" msid="111436394" hostid="261" sizebytes="36290"></div><ol><li>Big Tech gets a big win from the Supreme Court. The court kicked two cases dealing with social media content moderation back down to lower courts. A legal expert explained <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/supreme-court-ruling-netchoice-big-tech-analysis-2024-7">why the decision is a de facto win for social media companies</a>.</li><li>Humans need another bot's help to fix ChatGPT's blunders. OpenAI unveiled CriticGPT, a tool designed to help human AI trainers spot errors in code produced by ChatGPT. As the chatbot has grown more sophisticated, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-searching-bugs-code-generated-chatgpt-criticgpt-sam-altman-2024-7">its mistakes have become harder for humans to spot</a>.</li><li>Abnormal Security is set to be valued at $5 billion with new funding round. It's raised $374 million in venture funding, but it's unclear how much it will raise with the new round. The startup, which <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abnormal-security-valued-at-5-billion-in-new-funding-round-2024-6">uses AI to guard users from cyber threats across email and apps</a>, was valued at $4 billion in 2022</li></ol><h2 id="8862aa8c-5cae-4ea4-8114-f26061757777">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Older man looking with disgust at a row of nearly identical houses" height="900" width="1200" msid="111436396" hostid="261" sizebytes="53684"></div><ol><li>We just can't stop building these hideous houses. Most people agree America needs more houses, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-are-new-homes-ugly-construction-builders-design-materials-architecture-2024-7">but why are the ones being built so ugly</a>? A mix of soaring development costs, local rules, and changing homeowners' attitudes may be to blame.</li><li>How much money would you need to feel financially secure? For Gen Z, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-200k-give-them-financial-security-inflation-costs-survey-2024-6">it's $200,000 a year</a> — more than any other generation. Gen Zers, contending with rising costs, are feeling financially vulnerable. According to a previous BI poll, they're the most stressed generation when it comes to saving money.</li><li>Kevin Costner's bad real-estate bet. Kevin Costner mortgaged his home to put $38 million of his own money into his latest film venture, the western "Horizon." <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kevin-costner-horizon-box-office-numbers-yellowstone-analysis-2024-7">Box-office numbers suggest this was a terrible idea</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="523d6b9e-71b7-4181-96ca-387a6c0ecfe1">In other news</h2><ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/world-economic-forum-managers-said-n-word-davos-dei-wsj-2024-7">2 managers at the World Economic Forum, which hosts the glitzy Davos conference, said the N-word in front of staff: report</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rak-garg-bain-capital-ventures-youngest-partner-2024-7">How Rak Garg became Bain Capital Ventures' youngest partner at just 27 years old in less than 3 years</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-takeaways-from-vidcon-creator-economy-conference-2024-6">VidCon 2024 showcased the internet's hottest stars you may never have heard of. Here are 7 top takeaways from the annual creator industry conference</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/linkedin-qr-codes-are-the-new-business-cards-networking-2024-7">Business cards are out. Instead, I use a QR code that directs to my LinkedIn profile when networking</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-facebook-european-commission-eu-digital-markets-act-dma-advertising-2024-7">Mark Zuckerberg's Meta just got some bad news</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/moelis-banker-arrested-assault-charges-after-viral-punching-video-2024-7">Ex-Moelis banker arrested on assault charges after viral punching video</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/solar-careers-in-demand-workforce-shortage-2024-7">Hot sector: solar careers are in demand</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apples-iphone-16-heres-what-we-know-ai-battery-i2024-7">The iPhone 16 is less than 3 months away — here's what to expect</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="4ca09107-1e83-4dc6-a360-328857aac16f">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Major Hurricane Beryl is forecast to barrel northwest across the Caribbean islands. It's the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record for the Atlantic hurricane season.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Annie Smith, associate producer, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

Biden digs his heels in while Trump secures another win

<ul><li>The investment strategist that nailed the stock market bottom in mid-June sees reason for turning cautious. </li><li>Truist co-CIO Keith Lerner told Insider that risks are skewed to the downside as the S&amp;P 500 runs into technical resistance.</li><li>"What's holding us back is central bank tightening and that valuations are not that compelling," Lerner said.</li></ul>Navigating the ups and downs of the stock market is no easy task, especially amid a bear market that has already seen three separate rallies of as much as 10% that ultimately failed and led to lower lows.In mid-June, Truist Bank co-CIO Keith Lerner <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-cheap-stocks-to-buy-recession-inflation-top-strategist-truist-2022-6">told Insider that the stock market presented a rare buying opportunity</a> after the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> flashed one of the most extreme oversold readings in 30 years when measured by the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average. Now, after a 14% rally in the S&amp;P 500 and a 20% rally in the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100</a> since mid-June, investors are wondering if this is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/post/preview?post_id=62ebcbdc26c4907c6738f034&amp;mode=desktop">another head-fake rally or the start of a new, sustainable bull market.</a>For now, it's probably another head-fake rally as the risk-reward profile of the stock market slightly favors the downside, according to Lerner.In an interview on Thursday, Lerner told Insider that he sees the S&amp;P 500 consolidating sideways, sandwiched between its rising 50-day moving average and falling 200-day moving average as a likely scenario in the short-term.At the same time the S&amp;P 500 is running up against technical resistance, valuations are "pretty full" and the Federal Reserve is still expected to continue tightening monetary conditions via interest rate hikes and a reduction in its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, which is just starting to get underway, Lerner said.And <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/july-jobs-report-528000-payrolls-unemployment-rate-hiring-trends-recovery-2022-8">Friday's strong jobs report</a> only reinforces the idea that the Fed is likely to continue hiking rates for the foreseeable future, despite some interpreting Chairman Jerome Powell's comments at July's FOMC meeting as a potential pivot. "What's holding us back is central bank tightening and that valuations are not that compelling," Lerner said, adding that ongoing interest rate hikes means the V-shaped recovery in stock prices investors have grown used to in recent years is unlikely to happen this time around.But Lerner's approach of combining both fundamental and technical analysis in his research process means he's not oblivious to the possibility that resilient corporate earnings and improving economic data could ultimately pave the way for a breakout move higher."Where could we be wrong? Really, more than a Fed pivot is that chances of a recession is a lot less than 50% and ultimately doesn't materialize," Lerner said.Essentially, a successful soft landing by the Fed. "We sidestep a recession and a lot of the weakness we've seen is really more of a symptom of the unwind of this huge stimulus, and it's still strong growth. I think that's the bull case, that earnings are going to stay much stronger than expected," Lerner said.On a sector basis, Lerner recently upgraded technology to neutral as it shows signs of a comeback amid easing inflation expectations and a considerable decline in interest rates from their cycle peak reached in June."We're looking for more of a digestion period for the big cap tech stocks for an opportunity to upgrade again," Lerner said.Truist is bullish on the healthcare sector, as it's "an attractive area that has growth and value characteristics and tends to do well in a choppy market environment," Lerner said.Ultimately, as investors navigate the ongoing volatility in markets, there's no reason to be a hero at current levels betting for a big move higher, according to Lerner."For investors who are over allocated to equities relative to their long-term targets, our view is this would be a more reasonable place to trim exposure," Lerner said.

The investment strategist that nailed the stock market bottom in June says risks are skewed to the downside as investors fight the Fed

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US government is more likely than not to shutdown by the end of the month, Goldman Sachs warned.</li><li>But stocks could rebound quickly from any ensuing volatility, stock market experts say.</li></ul>The US government looks it's headed for a shutdown as policymakers reach an impasse on the nation's budget for the next fiscal year. But the stock market's top strategists aren't much fazed by that possibility and there's a high chance investors could come out of the situation doing just fine, experts say.To avoid a shutdown, Congress needs to pass all 12 of its spending bills for the next fiscal year by September 30, something it's historically been quite bad at. The last time it passed all of its spending bills on time was in 1997, according to an analysis from Charles Schwab.The odds of a shutdown have already surpassed 50%, according to Goldman Sachs Research chief political economist Alec Phillips, with so far zero spending bills passed as policymakers spar over government budget constraints.That can spell trouble for the market, which could take an immediate hit from a shutdown event. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-sp500-worst-monthly-losses-interest-rates-2023-9?_gl=1*7zvudx*_ga*MjMxMzA1Mzg2LjE2NTY0NDQxNTU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTY5NTY2MjgzOC42NzAuMS4xNjk1NjY0MjMwLjYwLjAuMA..">Stocks in September are already on track to post their worst monthly losses</a> since the start of the year. And the last time Congress failed to strike a deal over the budget in time, the S&amp;P 500 dropped 2.7% on the first day of the shutdown, according to Renaissance Macro data.But there are promising signs that investors will be able to quickly recover any losses.In the past 20 government shutdowns, the S&amp;P 500 stayed relatively flat, with the benchmark index losing an average 0.4% the week before a shutdown and gaining .1% by the end of a shutdown, according to a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/potential-us-government-shutdown-could-dent-investor-confidence-2023-09-08/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters analysis</a> of CFRA Research data.And in some cases, stocks actually ended the shutdown period higher, with the market gaining a net 10% following the 2018-19 shutdown, according to Renaissance Macro.Shutdowns lasting five days or more have also been known to see a quick market rebound, according to a 2021 Dow Jones analysis. On average, the S&amp;P 500 had already moved into positive territory within one month of the shutdown. Shutdowns themselves are also relatively short. The last government shutdown, which was the longest-ever, lasted for 35 days. "In our view, any stock market pullback likely would be muted by the knowledge that the direct impact of past government shutdowns has been quickly reversed after the reopening," Wells Fargo strategists said in a recent note.<h2>Rising recession risk</h2>Though a shutdown might not be a significant drag on the market, analysts are concerned it could exacerbate other factors <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-risks-government-shutdown-student-loans-housing-market-2023-9">weighing on the US economy in the coming quarter.</a> That includes a weakening labor market, rising interest rates, and the resumption of student loan payments, which could pinch American consumers and hike the chances of a downturn.A shutdown could weigh on economic growth, dragging down year-over-year quarterly GDP by 0.2 percentage points per each week it lasts, Goldman Sachs estimated. The bank said it expected a shutdown to last two to three weeks. "I think the government shutdown itself isn't a major issue from a stock market perspective," Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner said to CNBC on Monday. "But I think the challenge for the market right now isn't any one thing, it's all the obvious things we're talking about," he said, adding that stock right now are lacking "upside" catalysts."[W]e encourage investors to look beyond the market's twists and turns in the weeks before, during, and immediately following a potential shutdown by aligning with our more defensive portfolio guidance, positioning for an economy approaching an anticipated recession," Wells Fargo strategists wrote in their note.

Here's what analysts see in store for stocks as the US government barrels towards a shutdown

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks end Thursday's session lower and capped monthly losses for February. </li><li>Yields climbed this month as inflation remains too hot for the Fed's comfort. </li></ul>Stocks ended Tuesday's session and February with losses, as investors during the month scrambled to reassess how high the Federal Reserve will take interest rates as inflationary pressures remain a problem for policymakers. The S&amp;P 500 was dragged lower in the daily session as seven of its 11 sectors slumped, led by utilities. More earnings reports rolled out as well, and among them was <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tgt-stock">Target</a>. The retailer's holiday-quarter sales came out ahead of Wall Street's expectations, but the company signaled slowing sales. The S&amp;P 500 fell for the month alongside the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, "The biggest change in February was a repricing of interest rates on the short-end and the long-end [of bonds] and basically put downward pressure on equity valuations," Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, told Insider in an interview Tuesday.The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-2-years">2-year Treasury yield </a>rushed beyond 4.8% for the first time since 2007 following upside surprises in January consumer and wholesale inflation data. Still-hot inflation, while below peak levels, has stoked speculation the Federal Reserve will jack up its benchmark interest rate to perhaps as high as 6%.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday: <ul><li> <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">S&amp;P 500</a>: 3,970.14, down 0.30%</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 32,656.70, down 0.71% (232.39 points)</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">Nasdaq Composite</a>: 11,455.54, down 0.10%</li></ul>The S&amp;P 500 has dropped about 5% from its 2023 peak of 4,195 that was reached on February 2. "Short-term, there's a tug-of-war that's going on where we are," said Lerner, noting the S&amp;P 500 has been chopping around its 200-day moving average of 3,940."We went from an overbought condition to a moderately oversold condition. I think there's a standstill between the bulls and the bears after this pullback and that likely leads to further consolidation in the market, which is actually not a bad thing."Lerner said his shop is overweight fixed-income, cash, and in equities, the industrials sector on a planned pickup in federal infrastructure spending and prospects for defense outlays related to China and Europe. Here's what else is happening today:<ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/binance-crypto-exchange-customer-funds-compares-ftx-crisis-report-crisis-2023-2">Crypto exchange Binance</a> reportedly used customer funds for its own purposes in a move similar to FTX. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/leon-cooperman-stock-market-outlook-spx-inflation-recession-fed-rates-2023-2">Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman</a> predicted the S&amp;P 500 will sink 22%.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/visa-mastercard-pause-new-crypto-partnerships-industry-collapses-ftx-bankruptcy-2023-2">Visa and Mastercard</a> are reportedly pausing new crypto partnerships in the wake of industry collapses.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-recession-indicator-october-low-sp500-evercore-2023-2">Stocks could retest October lows by midyear</a> as a looming recession hits the US economy, Evercore's Julian Emanuel said.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-elon-musk-sued-shareholders-stock-losses-self-driving-risks-2023-2">Tesla and Elon Musk were reportedly sued</a> by shareholders over Autopilot safety risks after a $38 billion drop in market value. </li><li style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/robinhood-subpoenaed-sec-ftx-crash-cryptocurrencies-regulatory-crackdown-2023-2">Robinhood said it was subpoenaed</a> by the SEC soon after FTX crashed.</li><li style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-twitter-stock-performance-awards-employees-layoffs-spacex-shares-2023-2">Elon Musk promised "very significant" Twitter stock awards</a> for remaining employees after layoffs. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-energy-commodities-federal-reserve-china-zero-covid-2023-2">Oil prices notched a fourth monthly loss</a> on the prospect the Federal Reserve will keep hiking interest rates.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wtisource=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> tacked on 1.8% at $77.03 per barrel. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude,</a> the international benchmark, rose 1.7% to $83.77. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> picked up 0.6% to $1,836.60 per ounce. </li><li>The<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years"> 10-year Treasury yield</a> turned lower, slipping one basis point to 3.91%.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> fell 0.2% to $23,297.25.</li></ul>

US stocks end lower to cap off losing month of February

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks closed higher Thursday, leaving the S&amp;P 500 to land a second straight win. </li><li>Investors took on some risk before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on Friday. </li></ul>US stocks rose Thursday as investors embraced some risk before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell grabs the attention of global financial markets with a speech on monetary policy at the central bank's marquee annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The S&amp;P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average each rose for a second consecutive session after losing ground for three days prior. All 11 of the S&amp;P 500's sectors moved higher. Among individual stocks, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock">Tesla </a>moved lower as the electric vehicle maker's <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-stock-split-china-production-volume-recovers-wedbush-2022-8">3-for-1 stock split went into effect</a>.Stocks rose after China unexpectedly announced billions of dollars worth of stimulus measures to help slumping growth in the world's second-largest economy. Investors also sifted through US economic data that featured a decline in weekly jobless claims. A second reading of second-quarter gross domestic product suggested the economy contracted by 0.6% compared with a contraction of 0.9% in the preliminary reading. Federal Reserve officials gathered Thursday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for their annual symposium. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern time. Here's where US indexes stood at 4:00 p.m. on Thursday: <ul><li> <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">S&amp;P 500</a>: 4,199.15, up 1.41% </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 33,291.78, up 0.98% (322.55 points)</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">Nasdaq Composite</a>: 12,639.27, up 1.67%</li></ul>The S&amp;P 500 has trimmed its year-to-date decline to 12%. Stocks currently are in a consolidation area, Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, told Insider. "At the June lows, investors were pricing in a recession, at least by historical metrics," as the S&amp;P 500 had fallen by 24%, he said. A stronger-than-expected jobs report and easing headline inflation for July each helped push the S&amp;P off those lows and "investors were just caught off-sides as far as positioning." "Our view is that investors priced with that recession too soon. We still think there's some recession risk as we look into next year," Lerner said. "We think that monetary policy is still becoming tighter and that is still going to be a concern."Around the markets, Alibaba and other <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-stocks-alibaba-jd-baiudu-audit-accounting-deal-dispute-inspections-2022-8">US-listed Chinese stocks jumped</a> following a Wall Street Journal report the US is nearing a deal related to audits of Chinese firms.The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bridgewater-asset-declines-fed-rate-hikes-tightening-2022-8">CIO of Ray Dalio's Bridgewater</a> says asset markets will tumble 20%-25% as the Fed's tightening has yet to be fully priced in. Meanwhile, markets guru Harry Dent<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/harry-dent-stock-market-bubble-asset-prices-crash-economy-depression-2022-8"> foresees a 40% drop in the Nasdaq</a> and an economic depression. Warren Buffett's<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/brk-b-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets"> Berkshire Hathaway</a> logged a $4 billion gain on<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/oxy-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets"> Occidental Petroleum</a> in under six months as the energy stock surged to nearly a four-year high.Oil prices turned lower.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wtisource=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest"> West Texas Intermediate crude</a> fell 1.7% to $93.25 per barrel.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price"> Brent crude,</a> the international benchmark, lost 1% to trade at $100.17. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">Gold</a> rose 0.4% to $1,768.50 per ounce.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd"> Bitcoin</a> slipped 0.5% to $21,598.11.

US stocks rise as investors await policy clues from Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks moved higher Thursday as Federal Reserve officials prepare to kick off their Jackson Hole symposium. </li><li>The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite could mark a second straight session of gains. </li></ul>US stocks were mixed Thursday, with investors setting up the S&amp;P 500 for a second straight advance as China unexpectedly outlined billions of dollars worth of stimulus measures while US monetary policy makers prepared to kick off their annual economic symposium. The Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also looked poised to rise for a second consecutive session after losing ground for three days prior. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock">Tesla</a> was in focus as its 3-for-1 stock split went into effect.Investors entered Thursday's trade with news that China's State Council will increase stimulus efforts by 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) through 19 policies as China fights its slowest growth in decades.They also waded through US economic updates including a decline in weekly jobless claims, by 2,000 to 243,000, highlighting strength in the labor market. A second reading of second-quarter gross domestic product suggested the economy contracted by 0.6% compared with a contraction of 0.9% in the preliminary reading. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials were gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to host the central bank's marquee annual conference. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern time. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Thursday: <ul><li> <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">S&amp;P 500</a>: 4,151.12, up 0.25%</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 32,894.03 , down 0.23% (75.20 points)</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">Nasdaq Composite</a>: 12,503.82, up 0.58%</li></ul>"I think he's going to say, 'Our view is that the Fed has some scar tissue,' Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, told Insider. "The last two decades they haven't had to worry about inflation, really," he said. "Just like they were slow to increase rates, I think they're going to be slow to pivot to the other side in a meaningful way," he said. Lerner said the S&amp;P 500 is in a period of consolidation after its summer bear-market rally. "Short-term rates may stay higher. Enemy number one today is inflation," for the Fed. "[Powell] could say something that the market likes but our bigger point of view is that the Fed in the first half of 2023 is still unlikely to cut rates and if they do, that's probably more of a sign that the economy is deteriorating at a fast pace." The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-2-years">2-year yield</a>, a short-term rate sensitive to Fed policy changes, slipped to 3.37%. The longer-term <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years">10-year Treasury yield</a> nudged up to <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-10-year-yield-bonds-declines-sp500-powell-2022-8">3.11%</a>. Yield curve inversion is widely seen as a recession indicator. Around the markets, markets guru Harry Dent <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/harry-dent-stock-market-bubble-asset-prices-crash-economy-depression-2022-8">foresees a 40% drop in the Nasdaq</a> and an economic depression. Warren Buffett's <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/brk-b-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Berkshire Hathaway</a> logged a $4 billion gain on <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/oxy-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Occidental Petroleum</a> in under six months as the energy stock surged to nearly a four-year high.Oil prices increased. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wtisource=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> rose 0.6% to $95.46 per barrel.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price"> Brent crude,</a> the international benchmark, picked up 0.8% to $101.13. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">Gold</a> rose 0.7% to $1,773.50 per ounce. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was 0.1% higher at $21,712.04.

US stocks trade mixed as investors weigh economic data and China stimulus ahead of Fed's Jackson Hole gathering

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The S&amp;P 500 is likely to extend a historic run of positive returns after midterm elections, market strategists say. </li><li>The S&amp;P 500 in has posted positive returns in the 12 months after midterm elections since the end of World War II. </li></ul>A historic run of positive returns for stocks following midterm elections in the US is likely to remain intact even as investors face the challenge of a hawkish Federal Reserve that's determined to cool down scorching inflation, market analysts say. Democrats' control of Congress is in question with the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-ultimate-voter-guide-for-the-2022-midterm-elections-2022-11">November 8 midterms</a>, with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the Senate's 100 seats on ballots across the country. One historical certainty is the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500's</a> performance 12 months after a midterm election. The broad equity index has posted positive returns after each mid-term since 1946–after World War II ended in September 1945. The S&amp;P 500 is entering this year's electoral contest in a bear market, down roughly 20% from its all-time closing high of 4,796.56 reached in early January. Stocks have been hammered by a quick ascent in borrowing costs, with the Federal Reserve aggressively raising interest rates to pull inflation down from a four-decade high.The central bank is poised to deliver even more rate hikes that could push up its benchmark lending rate to 5% or more next year, driving fears of a looming recession. Still, there's hope for the stock market if history is any guide. "We think the stage is still set for a pretty substantial end-of-year rally," Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at investment firm Carson Group, told Insider. Looking at seasonality, October is the strongest month of a mid-term year followed by November and December, on average. The S&amp;P 500 has, on average, posted a positive return of 14.1% in the 12 months after mid-term contests, he said. "It's not abnormal to see mid-term years struggle early and then see strength late. Once we can get past the uncertainty of the election … that could just be one more catalyst, one less thing for the market to worry about - and there are a lot of things to worry about," he said. High on the list of worries for investors is inflation. The CPI report for October is due on Thursday and economists polled by Bloomberg generally see just a slight edge downward in core and headline inflation, to 6.5% and 8%, respectively. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jerome-powell-fed-inflation-recession-interest-rates-hikes-housing-labor-2022-11">Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said</a> last week it's still "very premature" for policymakers to consider pausing rate increases and that the path to a soft landing for the economy has "narrowed."The S&amp;P 500 will likely hold onto its run of positive post-mid-term returns but the gain for 2023 may be limited, Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, told Insider. "Historically, there tends to be a lot of stimulus right as you move into a third year of a presidential cycle, which is part of the reason why markets have gone up 100% of the time 12 months later," Lerner said. "But I will tell you we are not looking for monetary stimulus or fiscal stimulus next year. The best thing going for the market is that the starting points have corrected a lot," he said. The S&amp;P 500 has come off its bear-market lows. Its October gain of roughly 8% - the best October performance ever - helped lift the index from around 3,573 to 3,845 by midday Tuesday. 'Floor of support'The Fed was tightening monetary policy in the midterm years of 1946, 1958, 1994, and 2018, and stocks over those next 12 months posted total returns averaging 12.8%, Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, told Insider. He said heading into the year-end it appears that the S&amp;P 500 has found a "very strong floor of support," at 3,500. "If we get a Santa Claus rally, it will be because the market once again is anticipating that the Fed will ease off of the brake and raise rates by 50 basis points in December," Stovall said.Stovall said stocks could also draw support from investors anticipating two smaller-sized rate hikes in 2023 of 25 basis points each. The move could bring the fed funds rate to a peak between 5% and 5.25%. Detrick said his team is optimistic that inflation has peaked. "That could also allow the Fed to be a little less hawkish," he said. "We'd be optimistic that can be a real positive for the stock market," he said. Detrick said dovish signals from the Fed could leave the S&amp;P 500 in 2023 with a higher post-midterm election return than the 14.1% average he had found. Stovall said stocks have risen in price 84% of the time in the fourth quarter of election years. Of course, nothing is guaranteed when it comes to market action, he said. "We've got to realize that history is a great guide, but it's never gospel," Stovall said.

Stocks have gained in the year after every midterm election since World War II - and investors can expect that run to continue even as the Fed keeps hiking rates

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The market in 2022 was rocked by the crypto crash, Russia's war on Ukraine, and massive Fed rate hikes. </li><li>And some forecasts see even more tumult ahead in 2023.</li></ul>In the past year, investors have been rocked by a bear market, the crypto crash, Russia's war on Ukraine and massive Fed rate hikes — and some forecasts see even more tumult in 2023. Here are some of the boldest predictions for the new year.Tesla stock will plunge further Long-time Tesla bear Gordon Johnson, head of investment research at GLJ Research, expects more downside for Elon Musk's EV company. In fact, he said that shares of Tesla could drop as low as $23, per <a href="https://fortune.com/2022/12/22/tesla-stock-prediction-demand-problems-analyst/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fortune</a>.That's down from about $120 now and would follow a dive of more than 60% in 2022.Tesla is facing demand issues, increasing competition, and an overblown valuation, Johnson said, adding that Musk is hurting the stock price by selling billions of dollars worth of his shares and creating drama with his Twitter antics. "They're just a car company that has built too much capacity that they can't sell," he <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3g4aA0nR88" target="_self" rel="">told CNBC</a>.Gold skyrockets to $3,000 an ounceIn <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/markets-saxo-bank-outrageous-predictions-2023-gold-yen-japan-fed-2022-12">Saxo Bank's view</a>, the precious metal could be slated for a banner year even after the classic inflation hedge failed to find its footing in 2022. Once markets realize inflation won't be tapering off anytime soon, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">gold</a> will surge to $3,000 per ounce, the bank wrote. Currently, it's around $1,800.The S&amp;P 500 crashes againAfter losing 20% in 2022, the index could keep falling. Strategists at Truist say the S&amp;P 500 could fall as low as 3,400 next year as bleak near-term outlooks for corporate earnings keep stocks muted. While a 7.5% gain is possible, stock valuations remain "far from compelling," co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner previously told <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2023-outlook-stock-market-investing-forecast-economy-recession-wall-street-2022-12#11-truist-11">Insider</a>.Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Deutsche Bank expect the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-2023-outlook-morgan-stanley-bofa-deutsche-bank-2022-12">S&amp;P 500 to tank over 20%</a> at some point next year. US risks another Great DepressionWith the Fed "ignoring deflationary signals," Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood said in a series of November tweets that the economy could slow further to the point where it resembles the landscape before the Great Depression."The Fed raised rates in 1929 to squelch financial speculation and then, in 1930, Congress passed Smoot-Hawley, putting 50%+ tariffs on more than 20,000 goods and pushing the global economy into the Great Depression," Wood warned. "If the Fed does not pivot, the set-up will be more like 1929."A country will ban meat productionSaxo Bank again makes the list of <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/markets-saxo-bank-outrageous-predictions-2023-gold-yen-japan-fed-2022-12">boldest predictions</a>, as its analysts forecasted that net-zero targets will compel a nation in 2023 to commit to going meatless. Next year, "at least one country looking to front-run others in marking out its lead in the race for most aggressive climate policy, moves to heavily tax meat on a rising scale beginning in 2025," the bank said.Home sales will sink to their lowest level in more than a decadeThat's according to Redfin, which said persistent inflation, recession fears, and housing unaffordability will make would-be buyers slow to sign mortgages, causing home sales will slide. The company expects roughly 16% fewer existing home sales next year compared to 2022, at about 4.3 million. "Mortgage rates will take center stage in 2023, with high rates likely to make it the slowest housing-market year since 2011," Redfin wrote in a year-ahead <a href="https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-predictions-2023/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">outlook</a>.

Here are the boldest predictions for 2023: Crashing stocks, another Great Depression, and a meatless nation.

Welcome back. This weekend saw the finale of Bitcoin 2022, one of the largest crypto events in history. From splashy predictions to downright tomfoolery, we have a rundown of everything you might've missed.Plus, Shark Tank investor Kevin O'Leary told Insider what's in his crypto portfolio.Buckle up. If this was forwarded to you, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/10-things-opening-bell">sign up here</a>. Download Insider's app <a href="https://www.insider.com/app">here.</a><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-2022-conference-wrap-cathie-wood-peter-thiel-michael-saylor-2022-4"></a>1. Bitcoin 2022 had plenty of wild moments. For starters, billionaire Peter Thiel called Warren Buffett a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-2022-conference-wrap-cathie-wood-peter-thiel-michael-saylor-2022-4">"sociopathic grandpa from Omaha"</a> as he presented a slideshow that included criticisms of top figures who he said are trying to prevent the adoption of crypto. Then, star stock-picker Cathie Wood sat down with bitcoin bull Michael Saylor, with both voicing their support for the token. Wood reiterated a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-2022-conference-wrap-cathie-wood-peter-thiel-michael-saylor-2022-4">$1 million price prediction</a> for the world's most popular crypto.And to cap it all off, there was a 3,000-pound, robotic <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-2022-conference-wrap-cathie-wood-peter-thiel-michael-saylor-2022-4">"Miami Bull" statue with laser eyes</a> that stood guard as the mascot of the conference. Here's what else happened:<ul><li>Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salina Pliego said bitcoin <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-mexican-billionaire-liquid-portfolio-ricardo-salinas-pliego-crypto-investment-2022-4">makes up 60% of his liquid portfolio</a>.</li><li>Robinhood announced it would roll out its WenWallets <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/robinhood-crypto-wallets-roll-out-to-2-million-strong-waitlist-2022-4">crypto wallets</a> to its 2 million-strong wait list.</li><li>eToro announced a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/etoro-crypto-retail-investors-nft-blockchain-technology-fund-2022-4">$20 million fund</a> to buy, support, and fund NFTs and their creators.</li></ul><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/kevin-oleary-shark-tank-crypto-metaverse-investing-strategy-portfolio-web3-2022-4"></a><div type="image" title="kevin o'leary" height="550" width="1100" msid="90778701" hostid="261"></div>In other news:2. Global shares are in the red this morning. Concern about surging inflation and bond yields, coupled with the threat of COVID to the Chinese economy has put stocks under pressure. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-markets-today-shares-inflation-fed-ecb-talks-china-covid-2022-4">Here's what's happening today.</a>3. Earnings on deck: Allied Esports Entertainment, Bloom Energy, and Lifeway Foods, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar">all reporting</a>.4. A long-time bull shared why he just downgraded small, economically sensitive stocks but is still betting against a recession. Higher inflation and slower growth have made a recession more likely, but there's other factors involved, Keith Lerner said. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-recession-small-caps-economy-energy-oil-truist-2022-4">He named three sectors investors can target right now. </a>5. Shark Tank investor Kevin O'Leary sat down with Insider to talk about how he invests in digital assets. He revealed how he arranges his crypto portfolio, what he looks for when investing in a company, and whether he owns any metaverse property. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/kevin-oleary-shark-tank-crypto-metaverse-investing-strategy-portfolio-web3-2022-4">Plus, he explained how economic value determines where he places his bets. </a>6. Europe is banning imports of Russian coal, but has stopped short of banning oil and gas. An outright ban on Russian fossil fuel imports would be difficult because of the sheer volume of foreign energy Europe relies on. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/eu-russia-oil-coal-natural-gas-fossil-fuels-energy-sanctions-2022-4">These three charts explain the situation.</a>7. Russia is poised for a bond default that could unleash years of courtroom chaos. Bondholders could be facing a brutal battle with the government as part of the fallout. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/russia-debt-default-what-next-lawyer-explains-bonds-sanctions-ukraine-2022-4">A debt expert broke down what could happen next. </a>8. The co-founder of a $10 billion crypto finance firm breaks down why she remains bullish on the "long-term price appreciation" of major tokens. Recent price volatility isn't scaring off BlockFi's Flori Marquez. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/crypto-market-forecast-price-appreciation-volatility-bullish-blockfi-flori-marquez-2022-4">Plus, she shared an out-of-the-box way to get involved in the $2 trillion sector.</a>9. Two agriculture investors shared which stocks could rise along with global food prices as the Russia-Ukraine conflict threatens wheat and crop supplies. The two warring nations produce 30% of the world's wheat exports, and investors say the mounting conflict could spur a food crisis. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/agricultural-stocks-rise-global-food-prices-wheat-fertilizer-russia-ukraine-2022-4">See the list of 8 stocks these investors are watching. </a><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/food-inflation-outlook-kroger-stock-price-grocery-prices-supermarkets-2022-4"></a><div type="image" title="Kroger" height="1053" width="1526" msid="90778704" hostid="261"></div>10. Kroger stock is a buy because food prices will keep rising. Bank of America upgraded the grocery chain company to "buy" based on how the bank expects inflation to impact the broader food sector. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/food-inflation-outlook-kroger-stock-price-grocery-prices-supermarkets-2022-4">Analysts expect food price inflation to surge through 2023 and to be passed on to consumers. </a>Keep up with the latest <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword> news throughout your day by checking out<a href="https://www.insider.com/therefresh"> The Refresh from Insider,</a> a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. <a href="https://www.insider.com/therefresh">Listen here.</a>Event invite: Join us on April 12 at 12 p.m. ET for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/free-virtual-event-experts-discuss-the-net-zero-transition-2022-3">'Accelerate the Net-Zero Transition,'</a> in partnership with Bank of America. Sustainable finance experts will discuss how the net-zero transition is being financed. <a href="https://events.insider.com/financing-a-sustainable-future">Register here.</a>Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email <a href="mailto:prosen@insider.com">prosen@insider.com</a> or tweet <a href="https://twitter.com/philrosenn">@philrosenn</a>.)

10 things before the opening bell

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Bryan Bedder/Getty Images for The New York TimesGoldman Sachs Group chairman and CEO Lloyd Blankfein.</div></div></div><section><article><div><div><section data-share-hash=""><div>Goldman Sachs just announed a new class of managing directors.</div><div></div><div>Here's the statement:</div></section></div>NEW YORK, November 8, 2017 -- The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) today announced that it has selected a new class of Managing Directors, effective from January 1, 2018, the start of the firm's next fiscal year."Our new Managing Directors have demonstrated an outstanding commitment to our people, clients and culture during their tenures at the firm, and we wish them continued success as they take this important next step in their careers," said Lloyd C. Blankfein, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs.The following individuals have been promoted to Managing Director: Gregg Abramson Sanjay Acharya Khalid Albdah Amal Alibair Karthikeyan Anbalagan Rolf Andersson Volker Anger Jonathan Armstrong Ken Ashley Lavanya Ashok Sebastian Ayton Jonathan Babkow Julio Badi Amitayush Bahri Soren Balzer Robert Barlick Jr. Philip Barreca Santiago Bau David Bauer Oksana Beard Lee Becker Virender Bedi Stuart Beer Christian Beerli Amanda Beisel Yumiko Bekku David Bell Pierre Benichou Andrew Benito Marco Bensi Laura Benson Stephen Bergin Daniel Berglund Greg Berry Shital Bhatt Dipanjan Bhattacharjee Anu Bhavnani Carissa Biggie Vineet Birman Daniel Bitel Anne Black Richard Blore Emmanuel Bodenstein Timothy Braude Sean Brenan Hugh Briscoe Nathaniel Bristol Leo Brito Troy Broderick Levee Brooks Eric Brothers Robert Bruns III Anthony Bunnell Meg Burke Susan Burt Sean Butkus Russell Byrne Edward Byun Adam Cahill Alessandro Calace Cristiano Camargo Ken Cawley Swapan Chaddha Patrick Chamberlain Richard Chambers Daphne Chan Lily Chan Ben Chance Ginger Chang Vikram Chavali Alex Cheek Jae Joon Choi Ken Choi Paul Choi David Clark Denis Cleary Daniel Cleland-James Ayanna Clunis Pamela Codo-Lotti Jesse Cohen Paul Coles Simon Coombes Jenny Cosco Philip Coureau Nathan Cowen Matthew Cox (Securities) Shaun Cullinan Christine D'Agostino Emile Daher Hiren Dasani Russell Day Pierre De Belen Merche del Valle Caitlin DeSantis Jack Devaney Thomas Devos Mats Dewitte Hristo Dimitrov Tim Dinsdale Isabella Disler Christian Ditullio Terence Doherty Yakut Donat Nicola Dondi Brian Dong Jason D'Silva Stefan Duffner Jane Dunlevie Marie Duval Julien Dyon Rohini Eapen Zach Eckler Sayaka Eda Jason Eisenstadt Chris Emmerson Tiffany Eng Chendan Esvaran Erkko Etula Liz Ewing Michael Fargher Matteo Farina Leigh Farris Sarah Faulkner Tom Favia Brett Feldman Jennifer Feng Jon Ferguson Alex Field Herbert Filho Alex Finston Dean Flanagan Greg Flynn Trip Foley Andrew Ho Kwon Fong Moran Forman Michael Fox Caroline Fraser Daniel Freckleton Tim Freeman Reto Frei Giles French Kirsten Frivold Michael Fu Rob Fuentes Kenji Fujimoto Carrie Gannon Chantal Garcia Akhil Garg Alex Garner Nick Gelber Andrew Gent Gizelle George-Joseph Andrea Gift Sean Gilbride Andreas Glaser Yong Suan Goh Sona Gohel Amir Gold Jeremy Goldstein Steven Gonzalez Jeff Gowen Adam Greene Tom Groothaert Hannes Gsell Ashwin Gupta Ali Haji Ayaz Haji Robert Hamilton Kelly Victoria Hampson Raja Harb Andy Harding Ryan Harster Selma Hassan Stephen Hawinkels Jacqueline Haynes Jason He* Craig Hempstead David Herrmann David Hickey Thomas Hilger Mitch Hochberg Jodi Hochberger Jane Hodges Peter Hodgkinson Dylan Hogarty Tim Holliday Naftali Holtz Amy Hong Jason Hudes Earl Hunt Joseph Hwang Yoshinori Ide Kazuya Iketani Daniel Jackson Ankit Jain (Risk) Gaurav Jaitly Jan Janssen David Jeria Alnawaz Jiwa Kim Johns Scott Johnson Elis Jones Neil Jones Robert Jones Philip Joseph Anand Joshi Shawn Joshi Ritu Kalra Michael Kaprelian Nadeem Kayani Alicia Keenan Neil Kelleher Tom Kennedy Aqil Khan Sarah Kiernan Daniel Kim Eugene Kim (IMD) Jason Kim (GIR) Sora Kim Kristy Kinahan Eugene King Laura Kirk Kunal Kishore Elliot Klapper Jayee Koffey Jason Koon Jennifer Kopylov Daniel Korich Ichiro Kosuge Vladimir Kotlyar Samuel Krasnik Katherine Krause David Kraut Sergey Kraytman Nitin Kulkarni Ram Kulkarni Dileep Kumar (Securities) Santosh Kunnakkat Wendy Kwong JP Lall Bill Lambert David Landman Yi Larson Niccolo Laudiero Nick Laux David Lee Phillip Lee Samuel Lee Shawn Lee Michael Leister David Lerner Naomi Leslie Matt Levine Na Li Haining Liang Nancy Licul Monica Lim Michelle Ling Srujan Linga Philip Linton Alan Liu Daniel Liu Eric Liu Heiman Lo Juan Lorenzo Tian Lu Wayne Lu James Lucas Dennis Luebcke Martin Luehrmann John Lynch Gina Lytle Leo Ma* Caesar Maasry Geoff MacDonald Robert Magnuson Toshiyuki Makabe Mariano Mallol Geydar Mamedov Kara Mangone Donna Mansfield Ajit Marathe Gilberto Marcheggiano James Marchese Michael Marcus Joshua Matheus Ann Mathews Chris Mathie Brian McCallion Graham McClelland Anne McCosker Michael Meehan (Compliance) Taylor Mefford Neil Mehta Adam Meister David Mericle Vitali Meschoulam Eric Meyers Alex Mignotte Andras Mikite Christopher Milligan Rahul Mistry Mike Mitchell Neil Moge Waleed Mohsin Babak Molavi Joel Monson Guy Morgan James Morris Antoine Munfa Aimee Mungovan Yuji Murata Dan Murphy Josh Murray Brian Musto Shehzad Nabi Devarajan Nambakam Ramanathan Narayanan Ganapathy Natarajan Danielle Natoli Murad Nayal Karim Nensi Scott Neu Dennis Ng Ken Ng Benjamin Ngan Joy Nguyen Salman Niaz Anders Nielsen (IMD) Howard Nifoussi Jun Niki Leah Nivison Laura Noble James Nolan Lauren Oakes Lynn Oberschmidt Allison O'Connor John O'Connor Shunil Ohrie Damian Ordish Leke Osinubi David Ossack Sathiya Padmanaban Danielle Pallin Salvador Pareja Dalmir Pasini Clorinda Pasqua Chris Pawson Paris Pender Patrick Perkins Philippe Perzi Wendy Peters Andy Phillips Flavio Picciotto Michael Pieck Sam Pirog Thomas Plank Joseph Plotkin Wade Podlich Ashish Pokharna Caitlin Pollak Charles Pollock Joe Porter Travis Potter Rohit Prabhu Richard Privorotsky Andrew Pucher Jay Rabinowitz Ankit Raj Harsha Rajamani Dmitry Rakhlin Yasser Rathore Edoardo Rava Elizabeth Reed Alexandre Reinert Stephen Reinhard Irfan Rendeci Christian Resch Andrew Rhee Riccardo Riboldi James Rinsler Caroline Riskey Helen Robinson Mark Rosen Amit Roy Joe Ryan Bernhard Rzymelka Takehiro Sakuramoto John Sales Rob Sarazen Vineeta Saxena Dominik Schaefer Andrea Scott Majid Sebti Bipin Sehgal Arseni Seregin Irma Sgarz Paulomi Shah Shreyas Shah Sunny Shah Faisal Shamsee Daniel Shapiro Mahesh Sharma Shripal Sharma Mai Shin Romy Shioda Toshimichi Shirai Mark Short Pankauz Shrestha David Shrimpton Obaid Siddiqui Mike Sidorov Scott Silverglate Stefani Silverstein Amy Silverzweig Jasdeep Singh Gabriella Skirnick Michael Sklow Maxine Sleeper Michael Slomienski Michael Sloyer Nicholas Smith (IBD) Ruth Smithson Christine Smyth Ben Snider Stacy Sonnenberg Cleaver Sower Ro Spaziani Brian Steele Johannes Steffens Duncan Stewart Stephen Stites Laurent Storoni Caroline Styant Joel Sulkes Mancy Sun Winnie Tam Nachiket Tamhane Ken Tang MK Tang Amish Tanna Melissa Teng Ross Tennenbaum Greg Thompson Fiona Thomson Justin Tobe Jason Tofsky Brad Tuthill Masahiro Uchiyama Nehal Udeshi Saad Usmani Meg Vaden Pramod Vaidyanathan Adam Van de Berghe Fred van der Wyck Suzanne van Staveren Andrew Vass Mahesh Vellanki Kadambari Verma Christopher Vilburn Iva Vukina Heng Vuong Ketan Vyas Joe Wall Jeffrey Wang Jiantao Wang Joshua Wang Lily Wang (Technology) Sherry Wang Victoria Ward (Compliance) Jeff Warren Noriko Watanabe Ramey Watkins Sam Watkins Heiko Weber Niki Webster Scott Weinstein Ryan Westmacott James Westwood Keith Wetzel Mark Wetzel James Whittingham Sabine Wick Robert Wieser Devin Wilde David Wilkins John Wilkinson Andrew Williams Ed Wong (IBD Technology) Eric Wong (Internal Audit) Kate Wood Amanda Wu Douglas Wu Joanne Xu Liang Xu** Rupam Yadav Kazushi Yamaguchi Hubert Yang Lisa Yang Basak Yavuz Zeynep Yenel David Yu Brian Zakrocki Thomas Zeppetella Yi Zhang* Adib Zouein Patrik Zumstein Piotr Zurawski Jonathan Zwart*Employee of Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities Company Limited **Employee of Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited</div></article></section>Get the latest Goldman Sachs stock price<a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/GS-Quote"> here.</a> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/interview-with-kristina-hooper-chief-investment-strategist-at-invesco-2017-11">We talked to the chief investment strategist at $920 billion fund giant Invesco about where you should invest right now</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

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