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<ul class="summary-list"><li>When Putin invaded Ukraine, experts speculated his ultimate goal was to restore the Russian Empire. </li><li>But as the war drags on, Putin's attention and military power have been fixated on Ukraine.</li></ul>When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked attack on Ukraine in February, experts said he was expecting a swift victory and potentially setting off on an effort to restore the Russian Empire or the USSR.Instead, seven months later, Putin's power over the post-Soviet region may be shakier than ever as his attention and military power remain fixated on Ukraine.The lack of Russian leadership in Central Asia and the Caucasus, which spans between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, has led to violent border clashes and frustration from Putin's allies in the region, according to a new report published in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/08/world/asia/russia-putin-soviet.html">The New York Times</a>.Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, and even before Putin rose to power, Russia has insisted on maintaining influence over post-Soviet states, according to Taras Kuzio, a professor of political science at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy."Moscow never truly accepted the verdict of 1991 and has always sought to retain its imperial influence throughout the former USSR," Kuzio wrote in a piece for the <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-russian-empire-is-collapsing-like-its-soviet-predecessor/">Atlantic Council</a>.Putin's desire for the West to stay out of the former Soviet Union has been clear, especially in Ukraine. One of the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-russia-is-attacking-ukraine-putin-justification-for-invasion-2022-2">reasons Putin gave for invading was the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization</a>. He has demanded that Ukraine — considered an aspiring NATO member — not be allowed to join the alliance.Experts have speculated Putin was driven by a deeper desire: <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/10/europe/russia-putin-empire-restoration-endgame-intl-cmd/index.html">to restore the USSR or the historic Russian Empire</a>, which predated the Soviet Union and at one point or another <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-wants-world-travel-back-time-empires-us-un-ambassador-2022-2">included Ukraine, Finland, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, among other nations</a>.But now "evidence of Russia's declining influence can be seen throughout the post-Soviet world," Kuzio said. "On the frontlines in Ukraine, Putin's invasion force is suffering from increasingly obvious manpower shortages that make a mockery of attempts to portray Russia as the world's number two military power."A violent border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, both members of a military alliance with Putin, has gone largely unaddressed by Russia. "Of course, they are distracted by Ukraine," Sadyr Japarov, the president of Kyrgyzstan, recently said, according to The Times.Armenia, another member of the military alliance, has been in conflict with Azerbaijan and calling for aid from Moscow, but without success, The Times reported.The alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, is made up of six post-Soviet states and has been propped up by Putin as NATO's counterpart. But it too appears to be at risk, as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is furious with Moscow's lack of help and has threatened to leave the alliance, The Times reported.To make up for major losses, Russia has also had to withdraw forces stationed in some post-Soviet states to redirect them to the frontlines in Ukraine, again signaling to those states that Moscow's power is on the decline, Kuzio said.Meanwhile, the lack of Kremlin leadership in the region has left an opening for other states to step in."Russia's humiliating military setbacks in Ukraine and economic isolation from the Western world have confirmed its status as China's junior partner," Kuzio wrote, adding: "China has replaced Russia as the preeminent power in Central Asia."In addition to declining influence over post-Soviet states, Russia's relationships with powerful partners are also on uncertain ground after the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-allies-china-india-pushed-putin-escalate-ukraine-war-experts-2022-9">leaders of both China and India last month publicly acknowledged concerns about the war in Ukraine</a>.Putin has escalated the war since, but Russia has continued to suffer humiliating defeats, such as the explosion on Saturday of a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-hints-sabotage-russia-crimea-kerch-bridge-putins-70th-birthday-2022-10">key bridge connecting Crimea to the Russian mainland</a>.Have a news tip? Contact this reporter at <a href="mailto:kvlamis@insider.com?inline-read-more">kvlamis@insider.com</a>.

Putin may have wanted to restore the Russian Empire, but his power over former Soviet states is waning as his invasion of Ukraine flounders

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China has re-emerged as the second-biggest bitcoin miner after the US, despite Beijing's ban on <keyword id="11893898" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="crypto" source="Orion">crypto</keyword> activity.</li><li>A surge in covert operations has made it a major mining hub again, the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance found.</li></ul>China has made a comeback as a global <keyword id="11971141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="bitcoin-mining" source="Orion">bitcoin mining</keyword> powerhouse, despite Beijing's crypto crackdown.Research by the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance found a surge in covert mining operations post-ban means the country is now the world's second-largest location for bitcoin mining, behind the US."In China, following a sudden uptick in covert mining operations after the June 2021 government-mandated ban on Bitcoin mining, the country has re-emerged as a major mining hub," the CCAF said in its <a href="https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/insight/2022/bitcoin-mining-new-data-reveal-a-surprising-resurgence/">report</a> published Tuesday.China was the leading bitcoin miner until its government in October completely <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-crypto-ban-bitcoin-golden-opportunity-us-blockchain-regulation-2021-10?r=US&amp;IR=T">banned</a> mining by making all cryptocurrency-related business activity illegal in the country.But Beijing's efforts to clamp down on bitcoin mining prompted a sharp rise in underground activity, according to the research.Chinese bitcoin miners were the source of 21.11% of the global hashrate, the researchers noted in their study of the period between September 2021 and January 2022."This strongly suggests that significant underground mining activity has formed in the country, which empirically confirms what industry insiders have long been assuming," the report said."Access to off-grid electricity and geographically scattered, small-scale operations are among the major means used by underground miners to hide their operations from authorities and circumvent the ban."In <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/bitcoin-price-btc-china-mining-crackdown-sichuan-cryptocurrencies-ether-2021-6-1030538480">bitcoin mining</a>, high-powered computers solve complex puzzles to mint new coins and secure the network. The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/hash-rate?r=US&amp;IR=T">hashrate</a> reflects the computational power used by a proof-of-work cryptocurrency network, like bitcoin, to process transactions in a blockchain. It can also reflect how fast a cryptocurrency miner's machines complete computations.The Chinese government ban resulted in an immediate decline in the global hashrate total, but this quickly reversed as miners shifted abroad, according to the report."By the end of 2021, total network hashrate had almost fully recovered to pre-ban levels," it said. "The upward trajectory continued in early 2022, and culminated in a new all-time hashrate high."The research found the US accounted for 37.84% of the hashrate. Russia has seen a substantial drop in its share, from 11.23% in August to 4.66% by January. Kazakhstan became a destination for crypto miners fleeing the Chinese ban, driving a rise in hashrate share to 18.10% in August. But strict rules introduced by its government to counter power shortages drove its share down to 13.22%.China's harsh clamp down on crypto reverberated across the industry, and provided the US with the opportunity to get ahead and become the world's biggest bitcoin miner for the first time.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/crypto-crash-altcoins-watch-winter-terra-ust-stablecoins-oversold-jpmorgan-2022-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">JPMorgan analysts say the crypto crash isn't a repeat of the 2018 winter yet. They explain why market conditions could still bring 'significant upside' despite reverting institutional demand — and share tokens benefiting from terra's collapse</a>

China is now the world's 2nd-biggest bitcoin miner after activity bounced back from the government's crackdown

Rapid changes in the financial markets and the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/rouble-strengthens-after-russian-central-bank-hikes-rates-2014-12">Russian economy</a>&#xa0;are forcing Vladimir Putin to change his calculus. 
Now the Russian president has a choice between doubling down on his aggressive foreign policy or concentrate on putting Russia in order.
This week's plunge in the value of the ruble adds another layer of uncertainty to the ongoing faceoff between Russia and the West.
The currency crisis, precipitated by US and EU sanctions against Moscow and a global decline in oil prices, threatens to crater the country's lucrative state-owned enterprises and send the economy into a nosedive.
The question is how an ever-unpredictable Vladimir Putin will <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bremmer-putin-now-needs-scapegoats-2014-12">respond</a>.
Putin's nationalistic and often-aggressive policies have appealed to Russians' post-Cold War sense of grievance and won him <a href="http://www.forbes.com/fdc/welcome_mjx.shtml">soaring approval ratings</a> at a time when the Russian president is loathed in most western capitals.
But the ruble dive threatens to radically shift the conditions that have allowed Putin to maintain his internal popularity in spite of the western powers' opposition to him.&#xa0;
As New York University professor and Russia expert Mark Galeotti explained to Business Insider, Putin's rule is predicated on a "social contract" that most Russians have found acceptable: "You stay out of <keyword id="6358883" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Politics">politics</keyword>. You show enthusiasm but don't think you actually get a meaningful say in government. In return for that your life will improve and continue to improve."
Under Putin, Russia achieved <a href="http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/paper.cfm?ResearchID=974">perhaps the highest standard of living in the country's history</a> while the government was able to replenish its coffers after periods of actual bankruptcy under Boris Yeltsin in the 1990s. Weaknesses remained: The new prosperity was largely distributed <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/dec/18/how-he-and-his-cronies-stole-russia/">through Putin's hand-picked former KGB colleagues</a> and much of the country's wealth depended upon robust oil prices and access to European markets. <a href="http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russian-defense-budget-to-hit-record-81bln-in-2015/509536.html">Record military spending</a> also threatens to sap resources and hamstring any government response to a future economic crisis.
The recent decline in oil prices, along with the economic consequences of <keyword id="6356001" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> sanctions, could bring Putin's arrangement crashing down around him. "This social contract is being torn up," says Galeotti. "But Putin could tear it up more quickly and more assiduously if he's still determined to maintain his aggressive geopolitical stance. It really is one of those guns or butter moments."

Galeotti believes that Moscow may send additional troops to eastern Ukraine in the hopes of pressuring Kiev into a settlement that would result in the lifting of international sanctions. But the immediate of escalation - beyond the Kremlin's current spate of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/lithuanias-military-is-on-alert-over-russian-moves-2014-12">military mobilizations</a> and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-flies-provocative-aerial-operations-2014-11">provocative military flights</a> near and even in European airspace - remain low.
Putin has nothing to gain from fresh geopolitical turmoil, especially now. "If we assume that Putin and company want to maximize their chances of exiting this crisis with their fortunes and, ideally, their political power mostly intact, then they need to worry about how NATO and the markets will respond to fresh aggression," Jay Ulfedler, a political scientist and director of the <a href="https://cpgearlywarning.wordpress.com/tag/jay-ulfelder/">Early Warning Project</a>, told Business Insider. "At this point, I don't see many options for new aggression that carry serious domestic benefits for Russia and don't risk huge new costs, perhaps including a direct war with NATO."
But that's only in the short term. The Russian state has enough money to backstop the ruble for the time being and Moscow has the ability to bail out some of the state's vital assets. "The country's strategic reserves may be (and I think will be) dispatched to help save some of the industries and businesses that are considered strategic (RosNeft and GazProm are first in that list), but others may be sacrificed," Hannah Thoburn, a Eurasia analyst at the Foreign Policy Initiative, told Business Insider.&#xa0;
The alternative is economic collapse and the severing of Putin's social contract - a scenario that could lead to internal disruptions serious enough to put Russia on an even more more aggressive footing.
In an economic worst-case scenario, Russia could see "an increasing tide of protest" and "an accretion of signs of concern" as popular discontent grows, Galeotti explains. In that situation, "the elite may also start to wonder if Putin is really the guy they want in charge."&#xa0;
In the face of public backlash and internal revolt, the long-serving Russian president may feel he has little choice but to rally nationalistic sentiment and push his advantage over his western rivals, which currently resides in the Kremlin's willingness to violently impose its will and violate the sovereignty of Russia's European neighbors.&#xa0;

Geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer&#xa0;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bremmer-putin-now-needs-scapegoats-2014-12#ixzz3M5xh1Sel">told Business Insider</a>&#xa0;that if he feels he's backed into a corner, Putin's options include more cyberattacks, "more aggression/incursion around NATO borders, excuses found for expansion of military engagement beyond present zone in Russia, [and] closer ties/integration with China."
And then there's the worst-case scenario, an economic meltdown bad enough to convince Putin that the continuity of his rule is under threat. Galeotti says that complete Russian economic collapse is "a possibility but not a probability." But as he notes, "imperial adventurism" in the face of political or social crisis is a Kremlin tactic dating back to the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1899-1913/portsmouth-treaty">disastrous Russo-Japanese war in 1905</a>.&#xa0;
It's one that Putin could resort to if things get worse. And between eastern Moldova, eastern Ukraine, and parts of Kazakhstan, former Soviet possessions that many Russians believe to be part of the national patrimony, Putin wouldn't have a shortage of obvious targets.&#xa0;

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Putin may have wanted to restore the Russian Empire, but his power over former Soviet states is waning as his invasion of Ukraine flounders

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China is now the world's 2nd-biggest bitcoin miner after activity bounced back from the government's crackdown

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Putin Now Faces 'One Of Those Guns Or Butter Moments'

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