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The Congress coalition government in Karnataka is facing the risk of losing its majority in the state assembly since as many as 13 Congress MLAs and 3 JD MLAs submit their resignations to the Speaker. The total strength of the JD(S)-Congress coalition in Karnataka including those who have submitted their resignations is 118 (Congress-78, JD(S)-37, BSP-1 and Independents-2), in addition to the Speaker. On the other hand, the BJP has a strength of 105 MLAs in the State Assembly. The list of Congress MLAs who were spotted at the Speaker’s office for submitting their resignations are Ramesh Jarkiholi (elected from Gokak), Pratap Gowda Patil (won from Maski), Shivram Hebbar (won from Yellapur), Mahesh Kumathalli (voted from Athani), B C Patil (won from Hirekerur), Byratibasavaraj (elected from K R Puram), S T Soma Shekar (from Yashwanthpur constituency) and Ramalinga Reddy (BTM Layout constituency). The JD(S) MLAs who have resigned are: A H Vishwanath (won from Hunsur), who recently quit his position as the party’s state chief, Narayana Gowda (elected from K R Pet), and Gopalaiah (won from Mahalakshmi Layout). Commenting on the repercussions of the situation, Assembly Speaker Ramesh Kumar said, “Whether the government will fall or survive would be decided in the Assembly“. He also added, “11 of them have submitted resignation letters. I told officials to take the letters and issue acknowledgement...on Tuesday I will go to office and take further action in accordance with rules.” Later, Congress MLA Munirathna who was elected from Rajarajeshwari Nagar also submitted his papers as per the sources of the Assembly Secretariat.

Karnataka rebel MLA list 2019: Know the names of all the MLAs who have resigned from Karnataka assembly

One of the most important constitutional mechanisms, a floor test is a kind of motion through which the executive head of the state is put to test if he or she still has the confidence of the legislation. As per the mandates of the Indian Constitution, the Governor appoints the Chief Minister of a State. When a floor test is called for during some critical situations in the state assembly, The Chief Minister of the State has the responsibility to prove that he has the support of the majority of members in the legislature bypassing the floor test. Why a floor test is necessitated If a single party gets the majority of seats in the Assembly that is sufficient to form the government as per the guidelines issued by the Constitution, the Governor invites the person recommended by the winning candidates of the party to take charge as the Chief Minister. If no party is in a position to form the government due to the lacking majority, the Governor appoints the leader heading the single largest party or coalition to pass a vote of confidence to be able to continue as the executive leader of the house. When the Governor orders for a floor test, the chief minister is required to prove that he or she has the support of the majority members and hence has successfully retained the confidence of the house. The floor test is conducted with the participation of the members present and voting. If the floor test or confidence motion fails, the Chief Minister will have to resign his position. Composite floor test Composite floor test happens when more than one person makes a claim to form the government under circumstances when the majority is not clear. A composite floor test is a special session that will assess who has the majority based on the voting of those present and voted and at times, it happens via voice voting also. What happens in a floor test The Chief Minister is expected to move a motion of confidence and win the majority among the members present and voted. The objective of the floor test is to ensure the constitutional process happens in a transparent manner. How voting is conducted in a floor test There are three modes in which the floor test can be administered. In a voice vote, the legislators are asked to respond orally. In case a division vote is ordered for, the voting is done with the use of electronic gadgets, ballot box or slips. A ballot vote is done if secret voting is necessitated. This is similar to how the general elections are conducted. The outcome of a floor test If the floor test fails, the Chief Minister has to resign. If a composite floor test happens and more than one member takes up the floor test, the winning person with the majority will be asked to form the government. If there is a tie, the speaker can cast his or her vote. The role of the pro-tem speaker Before a floor test is conducted, the Governor of the State appoints the longest-serving member of the house as the pro tem speaker who will conduct the floor test.

karnataka politics: What happens when a party fails the floor test

<ul><li>Karnataka confidence motion has got delayed till 11 am today after the house was adjourned yesterday without any <keyword id="6361732" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Trust-Vote">trust vote</keyword>.</li><li>Governor Vajubhai Vala yesterday wrote a letter to CM <keyword id="6358967" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="kumaraswamy">Kumaraswamy</keyword>, directing him to prove his majority in the assembly by 1:30 pm today. </li><li>BJP had announced a night long strike till the voting was not done and stayed overnight in the assembly itself. </li></ul><keyword id="1135113" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Karnataka-political-crisis">Karnataka political crisis</keyword> may finally end today after a day-long drama. The ruling government has managed to dodge the trust vote which requires them to prove majority, by an entire day. But they might not get any more time. The Governor of the state Vajubhai Vala set a deadline today. Vala directed Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy and Speaker of the assembly, KR Ramesh Kumar to conduct the floor test either before or by 1:30 pm, <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/karnataka-crisis-live-updates-trust-vote-1571106-2019-07-19">as per reports</a>. The trust vote which was supposed to happen yesterday, was relentlessly delayed by the ruling Congress-JD(S) coalition which might be facing an end of its run. Kumaraswamy will have to prove that his government has majority to carry on, as MLAs have been leaving his fold. BJP party members had staged an overnight dharna or protest over the delay of trust vote. Accusations, speeches and allegations between both Congress and BJP managed to delay the vote, yesterday. Finally, the state’s Governor wrote a letter to CM Kumaraswamy regarding the trust vote after senior BJP MLAs met him at the Raj Bhawan. The case of a kidnapped legislator Yesterday, the Speaker had refused to conduct the trust vote amid allegations by the Congress against the BJP for kidnapping its MLA Shreemant Patil, who had decided to take his resignation back. Speaker Ramesh Kumar had asked home minister MB Patil to give a detailed report of Shreemant after talking to his family. The Speaker said that he had received a letter in this regard named in Patil’s name, saying he would abstain from coming to the house due to health related issues. However, the Speaker asked the present Home Minister of Karnataka, MB Patil to contact Shreemath Pati’s family and give a detailed report by tomorrow. “What kind of a Speaker would I be if I proceed with a document which has no date or letterhead,” said K R Ramesh Kumar. The house was disrupted throughout the day on the issue of trust vote and when it was finally adjourned till today, BJP announced a night long strike in the assembly itself till the voting was not done. “We are demanding voting on the motion but the chief minister is reluctant to take it up as he has confirmed himself that he has lost confidence of the House and the people. Everybody knows Congress-JD(S) coalition has only 98 MLAs, we have 105,” said B S Yeddyurappa, BJP party president. Crisis mode The Karnataka state government went into a crisis mode earlier this month, after 16 of its MLAs from both the parties of the coalition government resigned. For the last two weeks, the political crisis in the state raged on, as Speaker of the Assembly refused to accept them, taking them to court. One of the rebel MLAs, Roshan Baig was also detained at Bengaluru airport and questioned, as he was stopped from taking a chartered flight, a few days back. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/karnataka-trust-voting-is-delayed-by-the-ruling-congress-jds-government-and-the-speaker/articleshow/70278303.cms">Karnataka Chief Minister is hanging on to power by a thread and endless speeches</a>

Karnataka’s trust vote to happen today by 1:30 pm, after relentless overnight drama

<ul><li>Tamil Nadu is going to poll for the first time in the second phase of the 2019 Parliamentary elections in India.</li></ul><ul><li>The Neduvasal hydrocarbon project and Chennai-Salem expressway project driven by the central government have faced severe public outrage. </li></ul><ul><li>The Narendra Modi government’s stance on imposing a central exam for medical college admissions has further tilted the scales in favour of its rivals.</li></ul><ul><li>While the country’s largest copper smelter operated by Sterlite has been shut by court order, the police firing that killed 14 protestors in 2018 is still fresh in the voters’ minds. </li></ul><ul><li>The blame for the shootout in Tuticorin fell on the ruling state government under AIADMK, which is now fighting the Parliamentary elections in alliance with the BJP. </li></ul>The voters of one of India’s <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/himachal-pradesh-tamil-nadu-and-kerala-top-ranking-in-sdg-index-niti-aayog/articleshow/67192585.cms">relatively developed states</a>, Tamil Nadu, are an angry lot. A series of missteps by the Narendra Modi government meant that their indignation has been directed towards the incumbent alliance between the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). On the other side is the coalition between the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the Indian National Congress, the Left Front, and a set of other local parties that significance within certain segments-- either geographically or among specific sections of the electorate. While there are other regional outfits and smaller coalitions in the fray, including the iconic movie star Kamal Hasan who is making his electoral debut, almost <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections-2019/tamil-nadu/news/tamil-nadu-poll-survey-says-dmk-front-to-get-30-33-lok-sabha-seats/articleshow/68784727.cms">all opinion polls</a> in the run up to the elections have handed a landslide to the challengers led by the DMK and Congress. There are at least four big decisions that work against the incumbent <keyword id="5013725" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="AIADMK-BJP-Alliance">AIADMK-BJP alliance</keyword>. A small oil field In 2015, the <a href="https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/energy/no-noble-gases-57750">Modi government approved a project to dig</a> for oil and natural gas from a 10 square kilometre field in Neduvasal, in Pudukottai district. The reason being the oil field was located in one of the more fertile parts of Tamil Nadu’s delta region around the Cauvery river. The proposal to dig for oil in the region scratched the wounds of an existing wound in the minds of the local farmers. A standoff with the neighbouring state of Karnataka over <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/a-brief-history-of-the-cauvery-dispute/tale-of-two-states/slideshow/63698683.cms">the sharing of Cauvery’s water</a> is decades old. Even after a settlement ordered by the Supreme Court, the farmers’ in Tamil Nadu’s rice bowl feel parched as well as wronged by the system. Farmers were caught by surprise when they were asked to give up their land to extract oil, while they were still hoping to their share of water to till the land. A big highway Farmers have been up in arms in five other districts too, far away from Neduvasal. The point of contention is an eight-lane expressway stretching nearly 280 kilometres west from the state capital Chennai to the industrial town of Salem. Once again the BJP has found itself in the firing line of the voters as it continues to push for the project despite stiff resistance that the party’s rivals have capitalised on. The Madras High Court on April 8 quashed the land acquisition process for the Chennai-Salem Expressway project. The challenging coalition led by Congress and the DMK have vowed to scrap the project if voted to power. A medical entrance test Seventeen-year-old Anitha, an aspiring medical student, committed suicide in September 2017 after she failed to clear the then newly-introduced medical entrance exam, that goes by the acronym NEET. The National Eligibility Entrance Test (NEET) replaced the admission tests for medical colleges across the country with a centralised process. The <a href="https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/why-neet-election-issue-tamil-nadu-98604">people’s resentment against NEET</a> stems from the view that it puts local students, even the high-scorers, at a disadvantage because the curriculum is structured based on the Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE), which is different from the state syllabus. The state administration’s high-handed approach in the wake of protests, and <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/piyush-goyal-neet-tamil-nadu-bjp-aiadmk-1500468-2019-04-12">the BJP’s persistence</a> on imposing NEET, has only hurt the alliance’s chances in the state. Once again, BJP’s rivals have promised to let states decide the mode of admission into medical colleges. The <a href="https://www.livemint.com/Politics/QgYD6W50rev6VcHmGs9GKP/NEET-protests-More-states-join-the-fight.html">protests against NEET was not unique</a> to Tamil Nadu, but the outrage in the southern state was the most severe. Tamil Nadu is known for its huge population of aspiring doctors. The state has 22 medical colleges, among the highest in the country, and 4 doctors for every 1,000 people, <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/6-states-have-more-doctors-than-whos-11000-guideline/articleshow/65640694.cms">nearly at par with</a> developed countries like Norway and Sweden. Despite the enduring resentment, Tamil Nadu had the <a href="http://www.newindianexpress.com/education/2019/feb/03/tamil-nadu-has-the-highest-number-of-doctors-who-cleared-pg-neet-1933745.html">maximum number of students</a> clearing the NEET exam in 2019. The shootout In May 2018, The Tamil Nadu Police <a href="https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/sterlite-violence-video-shows-policemen-taking-aim-and-shooting-protesters-81744">opened fire at a sea of protestors</a> outside the country’s largest copper smelter, operated by Sterlite, a Vedanta Group company. More than 10 people died in the shootout and the public anger that swelled further poured on the ruling state government led by the AIADMK. Sterlite’s plant was accused of violating pollution norms, causing fatal health issues to its workers and the population in its vicinity. Local protests against the plant have been underway in patches since 1996, and they escalated once again in 2018 leading up to the <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/editorials/tuticorin-massacre/594415.html">‘Tuticorin Massacre’</a>. Subsequent probe and judicial inquiry revealed gaping regulatory lapses, eventually leading to the closure of the plant pending investigations and corrections. The London-based Vedanta Group has been a big donor to <a href="https://www.thequint.com/news/india/sterlite-congress-bjp-fcra-violation-finance-bill-amendments">both the BJP and the Congress</a> between 2004 and 2015. However, BJP also found itself further on the wrong side of the debate soon after the issue came to the fore, as some of its leaders tried to colour some of the protestors as anti-social elements. 
	
	<div type="twitter" handle="HRajaBJP" handlename="Chowkidar H Raja" image="http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/690063070870241280/uH8lVPNK_normal.jpg" favoritecount="668" retweetcount="333" status="Not only Thoothukudi even the protest against the 8 way highway is orchestrated by the same anti social elements. https://t.co/UcjvxjiDsV" createdat="1530593499000" id="1014008749197946880"></div>





 Going into the 2019 elections, the party is in alliance with the regional party, AIADMK, which bore the brunt of the public anger. A year on, the memory of the lethal attack on protestors is still fresh among voters, particularly in the region. As is the outrage against NEET, the Chennai-Salem expressway, and the proposed oil field in Neduvasal. The odds are heavily stacked against the AIADMK-BJP alliance. This is the first-time in decades that Tamil Nadu is going to polls without a strong, regional leader to back. Over decades, a series of larger-than-life leaders, with their share of taints, from <a href="https://www.firstpost.com/india/cn-annadurai-legacy-of-a-dravidian-stalwart-6007351.html">CN Annadurai</a> to <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/cover-story/story/19880115-m.g.-ramachandran-death-marks-the-passing-of-an-era-of-stability-in-tamil-nadu-796866-1988-01-15">MG Ramachandran</a> to <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/karunanidhi-1924-2018/newslist/65311339.cms">M Karunanidhi</a> and <a href="https://frontline.thehindu.com/cover-story/jayalalithaas-legacy/article9435860.ece">J Jayalalitha</a> had turned Tamil Nadu into a politically unbreachable fortress for national parties. The mandate kept passing between the DMK and AIADMK for years. However, the passing away of Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha in recent years has left a political vacuum that the national parties intended to capitalise on. Neither the BJP nor the Congress by itself has made any significant headway so far.

Tamil Nadu’s angry voters have a small oil field, a big highway, a medical entrance test, and a police shootout in mind

<ul><li><keyword id="6354780" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Karnataka">Karnataka</keyword> trust voting is delayed by the ruling Congress-JD(S) government and the Speaker. </li><li>The governor of the state has sent word to the Speaker directing him to hold the trust vote, today itself. </li><li>Congress alleged that BJP had kidnapped its MLA Shreemath Patil from Mumbai resort, who had decided to take back his resignation and vote in Congress’ favour. </li><li>Speaker KR Ramesh Kumar has asked home minister MB Patil to contact Shreemath’s family and give a detailed report tomorrow. </li></ul>The political crisis of Karnataka is not ending, not soon anyways. Since morning today, both the ruling party and opposition have been exchanging a war of words at the state’s assembly, which is delaying the trust vote by over six hours. The governor of the state has sent word to the Speaker directing him to hold the trust vote, today itself. Congress delayed the vote as it alleged that BJP kidnapped the Congress MLA Shreemath Patil, who had decided to take his resignation back and vote in favour of the ruling party. BJP state president B S Yeddyurappa said that they are willing to wait till midnight till the voting starts. Speaker’s Dilemma The Speaker had received a letter in this regard named in Patil’s name, saying he would abstain from coming to the house due to health related issues. However, the Speaker asked the present Home Minister of Karnataka, MB Patil to contact Shreemath Pati’s family and give a detailed report by tomorrow. “What kind of a Speaker would I be if I proceed with a document which has no date or letterhead,” said K R Ramesh Kumar. The house was adjourned for half an hour till 4:30 pm, after ruckus raged at the Vidhan Soudha in Bengaluru. Previously in the day, a delegation of senior BJP leaders Jagadish Shettar, Arvind Limbavalli and Baravraj Bommai met the Governor of Karnataka, Vajubhai Vala and submitted a complaint on the proceedings of the house and requested him to intervene and ask the Speaker to conduct the confidence motion today itself. The Karnataka state government went into a crisis mode after 16 of its MLAs from both the parties of the coalition government resigned early this month. For the last two weeks, the political crisis in the state raged on, as Speaker of the Assembly refused to accept them, taking them to court. One of the rebel MLAs Roshan Baig was also detained at Bengaluru airport and questioned, as he was stopped from taking a chartered flight, yesterday.

Karnataka Chief Minister is hanging on to power by a thread and endless speeches

<ul><li>Governor Vajubhai Vala has given fresh deadline till 6 pm for HDK to prove majority. </li><li>Karnataka assembly has resumed after it was adjourned till 3 pm. </li><li>BJP President says that the trust vote might not be held today. </li><li>Karnataka legislative assembly is continuously being adjourned amid BJP’s demand for trust vote. </li><li>Karnataka CM HD Kumaraswamy said that he will move to the Supreme Court against the Governor’s order. </li></ul>The governor of Karnataka gave a fresh deadline to the ruling government to prove it majority by 6 pm. The CM H D Kumaraswamy has been exhaustively delaying the process, hanging on to power. BJP President Siddaramaiah had earlier said that the trust vote probably won’t be held today. The assembly has resumed after it was adjourned till 3 pm, with no progress on the much awaited trust vote. Kumaraswamy said today that he will move to the Supreme Court against the vote. Governor Vala had earlier directed the Speaker to hold the trust vote by 1:30 pm today. Also, the Congress state President was seen heading to the Supreme Court, possibly delaying it further. Kumaraswamy said, “It (trust vote) is crucial and cannot be completed by 1:30 pm. This needs to be discussed.” The opposition, BJP, has been alleging that the ruling party is delaying it, as it does not have the requisite majority. They had also staged an overnight protest by ‘sleeping’ in the Assembly. Governor is interfering: Cong JD(S) spokesman Ramesh Babu said that the CM’s counsel will move the Supreme Court today for a stay on the Governor's Thursday’s order asking him to prove majority by the deadline. “The Governor is interfering in the workings of the Legislative Assembly, which is the domain of the Speaker under the provisions of the Constitution,” Babu said. Congress-JD(S) alliance is to petition on the basis that CM Kumaraswamy had moved the confidence motion in the house on Thursday and the debate had started and so setting a deadline should be stayed by the court. In the meanwhile, one of the Congress MLAs Shreemant Patil is admitted in a hospital in Mumbai, after he complained of chest pains. Yesterday, Congress alleged that BJP has kidnapped them. Delayed Trust The trust vote which was supposed to happen yesterday, was relentlessly delayed by the ruling Congress-JD(S) coalition which might be facing an end of its run. Kumaraswamy will have to prove that his government has majority to carry on, as MLAs have been leaving his fold. BJP party members had staged an overnight dharna or protest over the delay of trust vote. Accusations, speeches and allegations between both Congress and BJP managed to delay the vote, yesterday. Finally, the state’s Governor wrote a letter to CM Kumaraswamy regarding the trust vote after senior BJP MLAs met him at the Raj Bhawan. The case of a kidnapped legislator Yesterday, the Speaker had refused to conduct the trust vote amid allegations by the Congress against the BJP for kidnapping its MLA Shreemant Patil, who had decided to take his resignation back. Speaker Ramesh Kumar had asked home minister MB Patil to give a detailed report of Shreemant after talking to his family. The Speaker said that he had received a letter in this regard named in Patil’s name, saying he would abstain from coming to the house due to health related issues. However, the Speaker asked the present Home Minister of Karnataka, MB Patil to contact Shreemath Pati’s family and give a detailed report by tomorrow. “What kind of a Speaker would I be if I proceed with a document which has no date or letterhead,” said K R Ramesh Kumar. The house was disrupted throughout the day on the issue of trust vote and when it was finally adjourned till today, BJP announced a night long strike in the assembly itself till the voting was not done. “We are demanding voting on the motion but the chief minister is reluctant to take it up as he has confirmed himself that he has lost confidence of the House and the people. Everybody knows Congress-JD(S) coalition has only 98 MLAs, we have 105,” said B S Yeddyurappa, BJP party president. Crisis mode The Karnataka state government went into a crisis mode earlier this month, after 16 of its MLAs from both the parties of the coalition government resigned. For the last two weeks, the political crisis in the state raged on, as Speaker of the Assembly refused to accept them, taking them to court. One of the rebel MLAs, Roshan Baig was also detained at Bengaluru airport and questioned, as he was stopped from taking a chartered flight, a few days back.

Karnataka Governor sets another deadline at 6 pm for Kumaraswamy to prove majority

<ul><li>The total count of state government’s rebel MPs has now is currently at 15, after one defector had joined them back. </li><li>One of the rebel Congress MLAs, Roshan Baig was detained at the Bengaluru airport while he was taking a chartered flight, as per IANS. </li><li>State government’s opposition <keyword id="58687" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bharatiya-Janata-Party">Bharatiya Janata Party</keyword> (BJP) also claimed that it has the required number in its favour. </li></ul>As a trust vote has become inevitable, the chief minister of <keyword id="6354780" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Karnataka">Karnataka</keyword> said that he is confident of providing that he has enough MLAs on his side to keep the government. The Congress and JD-S coalition government will have to face a vote on June 18, after as many as 16 MLAs of the both the parties resigned throwing it into a <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/hdk-trust-vote-on-thursday-bjp-confident/articleshow/70236938.cms">state of crisis</a>. The total count of rebel MPs is currently at 15, after one defector had joined the ruling party. ‘Rebels can’t be forced’ The rebel MLAs too are continuing their legal battle on their right to resign. Their lawyer and country’s top lawyer Mukul Rohatgi <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/karnataka-news/karnataka-coalitions-survival-hinges-on-supreme-court-decision-today-2070147">told the Supreme Court </a>today that the MLAs cannot be forced to attend the state assembly. "This government is in a minority and that's simple math," Rohatgi told the court. CM Kumaraswamy, on July 12 had said, that he is ready to face a trust vote on the floor of the house. In the meanwhile, the state government’s opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also claimed that it has the required number in its favour to possibly form a government. One rebel MLA held at airport The ballooning issue has many interesting developments, today. One of the rebel Congress MLAs, Roshan Baig was detained at the Bengaluru airport while he was trying to take a chartered flight, as per IANS. “Baig was detained for questioning at the Kempegowda International Airport (KIA) when he was about to take off in a private aircraft to an unconfirmed destination from <keyword id="6355033" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="bangalore">Bangalore</keyword>,” Joint Commissioner of Police (Crime) B.R. Ravikantha Gowda was <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/karnataka-congress-mla-roshan-baig-detained-in-bengaluru-1569785-2019-07-16">reported saying</a>. Baig had kickstarted the crisis by tendering his resignation on June 10. After that, 15 MLAs across both the coalition parties followed suit, shaking up the state government. Karnataka politics had turned into a battle ground after MLAs resigned from the ruling government. However, the speaker did not accept the resignations terming saying that it violates constitutional rights. The MLAs had accused the Speaker Ramesh Kumar of not accepting their resignations, even when they were in accordance with the Indian constitution. “We are now 15 MLAs who want to resign but there is no formal acceptance by Speaker. Idea is not to defect, but resign so that we can go back to public and contest,” said Mukul Rohatagi, earlier told a Supreme Court bench which includes Chief Justice <keyword id="245445" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ranjan-Gogoi">Ranjan Gogoi</keyword>.

Karnataka CM Kumaraswamy puts up a brave front, but rebel MLAs lawyer says government is in a minority

(Image: BCCL) 
 <keyword id="6354780" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="100" keywordseo="Karnataka">Karnataka</keyword> is going through a rough phase. There has been curfew, deaths, protests and crores of rupees loss of public property over last 24 hours. 
 
It’s been more than hundred years and yet the distribution of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/The-Drought-Series-Nearly-3-1-crore-people-in-Karnataka-are-hit-by-the-drought-and-migration-is-intensifying/articleshow/51979749.cms">Cauvery River’s</a> water is in a mess. Given the present situations, it’s far from getting resolved. It’s not the first time that two states are fighting over a river. The history has seen it all. The war of water between <keyword id="6354759" type="COUNTRY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bangladesh">Bangladesh</keyword> and <keyword id="6357783" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="West-Bengal">West Bengal</keyword> over Farakka barrage and now the <keyword id="763269" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Teesta-river">Teesta River</keyword> and the Punjab- <keyword id="41646" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Haryana">Haryana</keyword> conflict over Sutlej-Yamuna link are similar in nature as the <keyword id="6354543" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Cauvery">Cauvery</keyword> issue.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/The-Drought-Series-Nearly-3-1-crore-people-in-Karnataka-are-hit-by-the-drought-and-migration-is-intensifying/articleshow/51979749.cms"> Agriculture</a> of both Karnataka and <keyword id="20154" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="tamil-nadu">Tamil Nadu</keyword> are dependent on the river that originates at <keyword id="65856" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kodagu">Kodagu</keyword> in Karnataka and flows for 765 km before meeting the <keyword id="55869" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bay-of-Bengal">Bay of Bengal</keyword> in Tamil Nadu. The strategic course that the river takes during its flow has made it a villain for many years on the distribution of water issue. 
 
Current scenario If Karnataka decides to distribute water to Tamil Nadu as per their demand, the former wont have much left. According to the data provided by <keyword id="6357283" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Central-Water-Commission">Central Water Commission</keyword> (<keyword id="54702" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="CWC">CWC</keyword>), Karnataka’s reservoirs this year were 30% below the normal water level compared to Tamil Nadu’s shortage of 49%. 
 The main reservoirs in the two states’ catchment areas include <keyword id="864488" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Krishna-Raja-Sagara">Krishna Raja Sagara</keyword> dam in <keyword id="6355147" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mandya">Mandya</keyword> district, <keyword id="891106" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kabini">Kabini</keyword> in Mysore, Harangi in Kodagu and <keyword id="279522" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hemavathi">Hemavathi</keyword> in Hassan; Mettur dam in <keyword id="6357470" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Salem">Salem</keyword> and <keyword id="3003304" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bhavanisagar-dam">Bhavanisagar Dam</keyword> in Erode. All these reservoirs have reportedly 46% less water than normal and 27% lesser water than last year. In short, the situation is quite grim for both states, as per the CWC report. 
 
A third party needs to intervene 
No matter how much these two states fight, there would be no solid solution ever. There needs to be a third party intervention to resolve this issue. A third party can solve things like nobody else. A good example of third party intervention can be the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan. This was brokered by <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/The-Drought-Series-Nearly-3-1-crore-people-in-Karnataka-are-hit-by-the-drought-and-migration-is-intensifying/articleshow/51979749.cms">World Bank</a>, which was signed on September 19, 1960 by Indian Prime Minister <keyword id="6360386" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jawaharlal-Nehru">Jawaharlal Nehru</keyword> and President of Pakistan <keyword id="27721" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="ayub-khan">Ayub Khan</keyword>. 
 
Since the ratification of the treaty in 1960, India and Pakistan have not engaged in any water wars. Most disagreements and disputes have been settled via legal procedures, provided for within the framework of the treaty. The treaty is considered to be one of the most successful water-sharing endeavours in the world today even though analysts acknowledge the need to update certain technical specifications and expand the scope of the document to include climate change. As per the provisions in the treaty, India can use only 20% of the total water carried by the Indus River. 
 
Weapon of politics 
As things get murkier the in Karnataka, it’s a hint that the issue wouldn’t get settled as easily as expected. When a crisis becomes a weapon of politics, it is no longer an issue to be solved. Rather it becomes more of a chance for the political parties to milk the situation. In this political game, the crisis has surpassed the actual need of water, the need of the agriculture and become a war of egos between the two states. It’s a motive of victory than a solution that matters to the common people caught in the crossfire. The threat of not sharing a drop of water would gain more brownies for the parties in both the states rather than finding a lighted avenue to the dead end. 
 
It’s a murderous rage 
If media reports are to be believed, Tamil channels and movies have been unofficially banned in Karnataka. This gives proof to the fact that the fight over Cauvery’s water has actually delineated to become a war between two states. Even if the situation can be solved by the two ruling parties of the states through dialogue, there is no indication for the public rage incited by these parties subsiding anytime soon. 
 
Where lies the solution? <keyword id="2262165" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sanjeev-Kumar-Balyan">Sanjeev Kumar Balyan</keyword>, Minister of State for <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/The-Drought-Series-Nearly-3-1-crore-people-in-Karnataka-are-hit-by-the-drought-and-migration-is-intensifying/articleshow/51979749.cms">Water Resources</a> has proposed that issue of river water distribution needs to be scrapped from the State list of constitution and added to the Concurrent List so that the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/The-Drought-Series-Nearly-3-1-crore-people-in-Karnataka-are-hit-by-the-drought-and-migration-is-intensifying/articleshow/51979749.cms">Centre </a>has its say as well. 
 The <keyword id="155317" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Republican">republican</keyword> set up of India has often been blamed for the centre hijacking power from the states to use it to dictate its own benefit. That is definitely something not so praiseworthy. However in the water distribution issue, the centre needs to have a say. 
 
The Cauvery issue keeps on recurring. 70 odd years have passed and the states couldn’t come up with a solution. Both the states are well aware of the fact that being adamant and sticking to illogical reasoning wouldn’t fetch any result. But for the game to be played in a gentleman’s way, the rules call for a quick change of perspective.

Hey Karnataka, why so angry?

Every year has its own share of controversies and interesting twists and turns play a crucial role in the events. The year 2015 was no exception either. This year too, the country had its incidents, incidences and things that cropped up as aftermath, making some of them hot cakes in terms of news this year. 
 
As we close in on wrapping up the year, here’s what made the headlines in 2015 and shaped the country’s opinion both, socially and politically, sometimes ushering in major change in perception about the country in the world’s eyes. 
 
<keyword id="3119826" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Award-Wapsi">Award Wapsi</keyword> This must have been the most significant event of the year and happened right before the <keyword id="175111" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bihar-elections">Bihar elections</keyword>. Award wapsi, a movement of sorts, was started a little while after murder of rationalist thinker and writer M M Kalburgi in Karnataka. Writers Nayantara Sehgal and Uday Prakash were among those who set the tone. This year, the biggest literary event was not a book release or something, but more like a writer standing up for his right to speak what he sees as truth. The writers were chided for siding with Congress party since most of them received awards during the tenure of Congress government. 
 
National Herald case 
Apart from Award Wapsi, this was another headline grabber which almost made demi gods out of Congress first line leaders. AICC Chairperson Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul Gandhi made an appearance in court over murky National Herald assets usurping case, which cost the country quite dearly since Congress stalled the discussions over some crucial issues such as GST in parliament, over ‘vendetta’ politics. 
 
Modi Pakistan-Afghan visit 
Towards the end of the year, the Prime Minister who has been jocularly targeted for his trips aboard sprang up a surprise and visited his counterpart in Pakistan absolutely out of turn, thus catching everyone by surprise. His move was both appreciated and criticized in equal measures by those who love him, and by those who simply didn’t like this approach. But, it looks like the White House seems to have welcomed this new found bonhomie between neighbours who have been sworn enemies over several issues. 
 
Shah Rukh, Aamir Khan’s (controversial) intolerance remarks 
This year when people spoke of social and cultural differences, they were targeted on social media and how! Shah Rukh Khan and Aamir Khan who spoke against the rising incidents of ‘intolerance’ and the subsequent fear that has been the result of this, they were targeted badly for everything they said and did. Many from Bollywood including Raveena Tandon, Madhur Bhandarkar and Anupam Kher condemned these remarks made by the two Khans. The issue still simmers on. 
 
No women in temples, so what! 
It started with Ayyappan temple in Sabarimala, Kerala where a trustee said they would put scanners soon to keep menstruating women from visiting temples and angering the gods. Soon after, BJP leader Pankaja Munde in Mumbai seemed to have agreed with this line of thought. She asked, in all calm tone, yes women have not been allowed to visit temples in particular days. So what?! This irked feminists and people across the social media, who ensured their spoke their minds against this medieval stance against menstruating women. 
 
Meat ban during Paryushan Parva 
The BJP government in Maharashtra banned meat during the Jain fasting period called Paryushan Parva. This angered people from across social strata, who were sure that the BJP was driving a wedge between communities that ate meat and those that didn’t consume meat. This was called a social experiment of the worst kind, which would have repercussions on people’s food habits where forced opinions would mean democracy had ceased to exist even in people food habits. 
 
Sadhvi Prachi 
In keeping with the continued tradition of letting lose a volley of abuses and irrational statements, asking people to go to Pakistan if they were opposed to the ideologies of BJP government which predominantly upheld Hindu values and the way of life, that an alternate faith was next to impossible. Sadhvi Prachi being just a representative of all those medieval thoughts and barbaric mindset, kept the newspapers busy with her idiosyncrasies while BJP leadership failed to rein her in. 
 
Yakub Memon 
Hanging of 1997 Mumbai blast main accused Yakub Memon, who was held guilty by courts in 2007 the country witnessed some tense moments and swift working by the courts even on the previous night he was to be hanged on July 30. 
 
Though his death didn’t create a law and order situation, international media lost no opportunity to ensure this incident was bracketed under ‘intolerance’ towards Muslim brethren. 
 
Bihar elections 
This was the single most significant incident that probably indicated the image of BJP was on a journey downhill. Having doled out goodies in form of packages, and most engaging and intense campaigning by the who’s who of BJP including Amit Shah and PM Narendra Modi, the MahagatBandhan with Nitish Kumar and Lalu at the helm held people’s hopes. That is where exactly their votes went too. But in the run up to event, there was a lot of bad blood that spilled forth. 
 
(Image: Indiatimes)

Political controversies that made headlines in 2015

The current BJP-led administration takes its <keyword id="68945" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Toilets">toilets</keyword> seriously. In its quest to eliminate public defecation by 2019, the <keyword id="26362" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Government">government</keyword> claims to have constructed <a href="http://sbm.gov.in/sbmdashboard/IHHL.aspx">70.5 million household toilets </a>- around 83% of its intended target - under the <keyword id="2312336" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Swachh-Bharat-Mission">Swachh Bharat Mission</keyword> - in villages. It has also constructed <a href="http://www.swachhbharaturban.in/sbm/home/#/SBM">4.6 million toilets</a> in urban areas. The program was launched in October 2014. Earlier this month, Parameswaran Iyer, the secretary of the Water and Sanitation ministry, said that the number of rural Indians defecating in the open had fallen from 550 million when the mission was launched, <a href="https://www.livemint.com/Politics/Fn5P83dnUwSD7T6mHXakuJ/Rural-India-will-reach-100-toilet-coverage-by-December-2018.html">to 200 million</a> by early 2018. This information was based on “government surveys”, which count on a random sample of participants to answer questions with utmost honesty. In February, a video of Janardan Mishra, a <keyword id="14666" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP">BJP</keyword> member of Parliament from Madhya Pradesh, was seen <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/watch-bjp-mp-unclogs-toilet-with-bare-hands-promotes-pm-narendra-modis-swachh-bharat-mission/1070526/">unclogging a toilet with his bare hands</a> went viral online. Like most political parties do ahead of an election, the BJP seems to be raking in the grandstanding and declaring its achievements. However, yesterday, as part of its campaign in Karnataka, it chose a rather questionable statistic to boast. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 If the facts are right, over the course of the BJP-led government’s tenure, 70% more toilets were constructed but with 6 times the total funding that the <keyword id="1575" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress">Congress</keyword>-led government had. The Congress responded accordingly, pointing out that it had built each toilet at a fraction of the amount it cost the BJP. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 Surprisingly, the original tweet by the BJP is still up, perhaps because deleting the tweet would have been an admission that it was an error to begin with. But it seems that the government does not make mistakes. The medium is the message Social media is all about brevity and soundbites. Statistics are cherry-picked. Opinions are made to sound definitive. The more eyebrow raising the claim, the greater the reach. The truth is what an organisation can get its supporters to believe. The ruling party at the Centre has been quite effective at harnessing social media to disseminate information to the Indian public as part of a concerted effort at winning an ideological war against the Opposition parties. In anticipation of the upcoming elections in Karnataka, both the BJP and Congress have dedicated social media teams working round the clock on outreach and on highlighting the work their respective rivals have not done. Inevitably, social media platforms have turned into becoming battlegrounds where barbs and ad hominem remarks are traded at the drop of a hat . Until very recently, the world faced a legitimate threat of nuclear war as a result of a Twitter spat between the leader of a world superpower and a rogue nation. Back at home, India’s two national parties - the protectors and enforcers of the country’s democracy, our leaders in these troubling times marked by rising public debt, toxic air, farmer suicides and communal violence - are currently squabbling over toilet statistics. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 So, now the BJP is trying to reframe the tweet as evidence of its generosity and portray the Siddaramaiah government as corrupt and inefficient. However, the BJP does not finance the construction of toilets with its own funds but with the taxes each and every Indian pays as Swachh Bharat cess - which totalled <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/25-of-swachh-bharat-cess-hasnt-reached-dedicated-fund/articleshow/62259934.cms">₹164 billion</a> in 2016 and 2017. In all fairness, the president of the Congress, Rahul Gandhi, is no stranger to the mathematical gaffe. In December 2017, he posted a table from his Twitter account that contained information about the rise in prices of essential items like cooking gas, tomatoes, onions and pulses from 2014 to 2017 under the BJP regime. However, he overstated each price rise by <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/rahul-gandhi-goofs-up-basic-math-in-a-tweet-corrects-it-later-2454791.html">100 percentage points</a>. The BJP fired back by referring to him as an<a href="http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/bjp-calls-rahul-immature-shehzada-for-math-blooper-117120700171_1.html"> “immature prince”.</a> Gandhi later deleted the tweet and uploaded a revised table, but not without thanking the BJP for pointing out his mistake. Development, not division As campaigning for the state elections in Karnataka enters its final phases, the barbs and finger-pointing will likely escalate. As is usually the case, development has become the focal issue of each party’s campaign. The BJP was rather straightforward about its three aims- development, development and more development. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 Soon after it posted the tweet above, the BJP’s social media team retweeted another development-related tweet from its Karnataka unit. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 It seems that the BJP is the only party comfortable with proffering development data. Oh, the irony. Maybe it would have paid for the BJP to concentrate on the mathematical process of division instead of the kind that involves polarisation.

The top two political parties in India are bickering over who’s better at building toilets

With over a billion people in the country, it's always been difficult to gauge the public's mood in <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="20" keywordseo="India">India</keyword>, as far as elections are concerned. Take the 2014 elections for instance. While everyone had an inkling that the BJP would take the cake, no one expected the sweeping victory the party pulled off. But what if you could marry voting with one of the fastest growing sectors in the country? Would that help gauge the public's reactions better? An app called Neta aims to do just that. Created by Pratham Mittal, a Wharton alumnus, the app lets you "review" politicians, just like you do Uber drivers. The idea is to create a ‘Zomato of politicians’. Mittal argues that ratings on apps like Zomato and Yelp are major drivers for service quality in a restaurant, just like Uber drivers care about the rating you give to them. So, why shouldn't politicians? Mittal and his team have created a database of constituencies in the country, including the politicians who are competing from these places. After signing up, users can find their constituency using the pin code and cast a vote for a neta (Hindi for politician). While this is not an official vote, it helps gauge what users in a particular area think of their leaders. The votes can be changed at will, which means if a politician isn't performing after an election, the public can change their vote. 
	
	<div type="image" title="Screenshot_20180531-161956" msid="64410352" hostid="261"></div>





(<keyword id="6579226" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="neta-app">Neta app</keyword>) Mittal says he wants the app to be a watchdog for politicians in the country. The votes are displayed in the form of a leaderboard, that ranks politicians based on the votes they receive. There's also a separate area for discussions and polls. The app allows users to run polls and add issues in their area. That gets even more feedback from users, providing better insight into what's happening on the ground. In the 2014 elections, 540 million Indians voted in the central elections. That was 66.4% of the electorate, up 8.4% from the 58% turnout in the 2009 elections. Yet, India doesn't have an easy method to gauge the public's mood. Once the app is launched across the country, Mittal says he can take the data to political parties and sell it to them. His app has 100,000 downloads on the Play Store right now, most of which were acquired during the recent Karnataka elections. It can also be accessed through the web, while Mittal's team also sends mass WhatsApp messages to people and makes IVR-driven calls to get votes from users. In fact, Mittal claims that through the data in his app, he was able to predict the eventually hung assembly beforehand. He says he has received over 2.5 million votes on the platform so far, despite only being in Ajmer, Alwar and Karnataka. Fake votes While that's an impressive number, there seems to be a very real chance of fake votes being cast. To battle that, the app takes the user's phone number when signing up. It uses this to tap into telecom operators' databases and get your name. It then tallies this to voter databases and decides which constituency you belong to. There's also Aadhaar. Since most numbers today are being attached to Aadhaar cards, the app taps into the UIDAI's APIs to verify users using their Aadhaar numbers. It doesn't actually see your Aadhaar number here but uses the mobile number and name to verify what constituency you belong to. Mittal says that his app will still have a 4% margin for error, but argues that this margin won't matter when it's reaching millions of users. What's the end game? While Mittal's goal is to make his app a watchdog, he has business opportunities in the analytics he can sell to political parties. But more importantly, he wants to sell this data to media outlets, making him a direct competitor to election research firms like Cvoter, Today's Chanakya and more. Further, Mittal says that he can also access user data if he wants to, but he's wary of doing so in the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal. He says he can extrapolate caste and religion from a person's name, while data about birth and some other information can be obtained from the election commission. Having started less than six months ago, this is a long-term plan. The app is yet to launch in all cities, though databases are being built for all of them. The hook here is in transparency, the fact that the votes come from real users. Mittal’s users aren’t obtained from Facebook ads alone, he says he sends real people down to villages etc. to put the app directly on people’s phones.

This app lets you 'review' politicians in India

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image">REUTERS/Amit Dave</div></div></div>India's elections are in the final stages and votes will be counted on May 16. With 814 million Indians eligible to vote, this has been the biggest election in history - understandably, the world has been watching to see how this plays out
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-narendra-modi-2014-4#!JziwF">Opposition leader Narendra Modi</a> is widely expected to be India's next prime minister and the ruling Congress party is expected to lose. Modi is currently the Chief Minister of Gujarat, a region known for economic progress but <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Gujarat_violence">also violent riots</a>.
While he has managed to position himself as a champion of economic growth, his plans remain largely unclear.
"He's selling a dream," said Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets and global macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. "We don't have specifics as yet."
We spoke with Sharma, author of "<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Breakout-Nations-Pursuit-Economic-Miracles/dp/0393345408">Breakout Nations</a>," on the Indian elections. 
Here are some highlights from the interview:
<ul>
<li>Sharma thinks the elections have had an 'anybody but Congress' theme to it. Modi has planned his campaign like a U.S. presidential election. </li>
<li>Modi could win the election comfortably even if two-thirds of the country didn't vote for him because India has a very fragmented polity.</li>
<li>Gujarat has had two advantages, an entrepreneurial population and its coastline, but its performance has improved a bit under Modi. Modi has positioned himself "as a connoisseur of all of India's problems."</li>
<li><keyword id="6358883" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Politics">Politics</keyword> have helped drive Indian equities in the past five to six months. But the bigger picture is that the Indian market is the most highly correlated to other emerging markets.</li>
<li>India's investment cycle has many problems that Modi might not be able to solve.</li>
<li>India has largely fallen off the map but we're still in a low growth world. If India could revive growth again it could offer an interesting opportunity for investors.</li>
<li>The emerging world is seeing a large anti-incumbency wave.</li>
</ul>
Here's the entire interview:
Business Insider: What would a Modi term mean for India?
Ruchir Sharma: I've been traveling in India, although I'm based in New York, what really strikes me here is the fact that this campaign started out, as what I described, as an 'anybody but Congress' campaign. It was quite apparent over the last 24 to 36 months that people were quite disgusted with the ruling Congress government because they thought it was inept on every front, whether it was inflation, corruption, or getting anything executed. It was seen as incompetent.
Modi has very smartly - this is the first time that I've seen this in India - been planning this like a U.S. presidential election. That is to say that ever since the BJP lost the election in 2009, five years ago, he has been sensing that the next election he really wants to take a shot at it. He has been behind the scenes working at it, in his own state of Gujarat. He's offered a complete contrast in terms of economic performance and governance, and the way the government runs there. He has systematically been planning this for five years in a U.S. presidential election style way.
As I've been traveling what's been very apparent is that, I was in the interiors of Uttar Pradesh, one of India's poorest states and what I find remarkable is that in the villages, people would speak about how they think their problems could be fixed by Modi. From the depths of despair they've come to see Modi as the man who will come and change things. I don't know whether this feeling is irrational, because none of the people have ever been to Gujarat or possibly been outside their state and yet this feeling exists that he's going to come and change things. The whole Muslim issue is controversial, and it is baggage for Modi, and people understand that but think what the hell, things look so bad let's give this guy a shot. <div class="KonaFilter image-container float_left click-to-enlarge"><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/536913dcecad040702c385bb-960/narendra-modi-4.jpg"></a>Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)</div></div>BI: Do you give credence to the talk of the emergence of a messy coalition, or what some folks are calling the third front, with the rise of regional parties?
RS: The current trend in India, and as you rightly pointed out the polls can be quite unreliable, really seems to suggest that Modi has made it all about himself, that he's succeeded in doing so, and that he's not going to need much outside help. That seems the way this election is headed currently, unless something dramatic happens this week or unless there's a voice out there that we're not picking up.
The rise of the regional parties has been one of my favorite themes as well. I think that's a train that's continuing, but this is about the decimation of the Congress party. The Congress party in this election is likely to fall to its lowest tally ever in post-independence India. Its vote share has plummeted, so this is as much about Congress being completely decimated. And the regional parties are still doing what they have to do.
One of the most fascinating statistics I find, which people can't quite appreciate, is that even if Modi wins this election quite comfortably, two-thirds of India would not have voted for him in this election. India remains a multiparty system, its polity is very fragmented. The regional parties are here to stay and possibly rise but Modi's real big gain is coming at the cost of the Congress party.
The reason behind that statement is that the polity in India is very fragmented with strong regional identities...there are many states where the national parties such as the BJP only have a marginal presence and the regional or state level parties call the shots...that's why even in what is being described as a 'wave election' for Modi, his party is unlikely to win more than a third of the vote with the regional parties still cornering significant vote shares in states where the BJP and the Congress only have a marginal presence. BI: There are loads of publications that have pointed out that Gujarat was doing quite well before Modi came to power too. It isn't necessarily that's kept economic growth going in that state… RS: That's true. Gujarat has two advantages, one: the population is quite entrepreneurial and industrial and so Gujarat has been doing well for a longer period of time. And two: the geographical sweet spot - that it's basically located on the Western coast, and has good coastline, and that helps Gujarat a lot.
Having said that, a look at the history of economic performance of Indian states, and what it shows typically is that many of the other states that were doing well in the previous decade, often tend to fade in the subsequent decade, so often we've seen examples of states, like some of the southern states, like Karnataka or Andhra Pradesh, they'll do well for five or 10 years, and then they won't do that well. In Gujarat, what's been remarkable is that it's continued to do well for long periods of time, under Modi, in fact the performance has improved a bit at the state level.
But I really feel that this debate about what Gujarat has done, and how things have stayed in Gujarat has almost become a bit irrelevant because the perception which has spread like wildfire, is the fact that India needs a tough, decisive leader, at a time when it's going through a lot of economic turmoil - where inflation is really high, growth is really low - that we need a really decisive leader to come cut through this mess. Modi has been able to effectively position himself as just the answer to India's problem. We can spend a lot of time parsing through the data, and that's true of most debates, but the key here is that - and I can't understand whether it's rational or irrational - he has been able to position himself as a connoisseur of all of India's problems, including inflation which has been so high for five years now. 
<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_left click-to-enlarge"><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="REUTERS/Anindito Mukherjee" title_caption="Polling officials leave for their assigned stations after collecting the electronic voting machines from a distribution centre. " class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/536908c4ecad044552c385b7-960/india-elections-4.jpg"></a>REUTERS/Anindito MukherjeePolling officials leave for their assigned stations after collecting the electronic voting machines from a distribution centre. </div></div>BI: What are the big reforms we should expect from Modi and what reforms does India need? 
RS: Here's the thing about Modi, he's selling a dream. We don't have specifics as yet. Indian campaigns are very different from U.S. campaigns where polices are debated a lot. In India the debate on policies, or even what they say in the manifesto, just doesn't mean much because those things aren't followed through. Or, the manifesto could be drafted by somebody who is not even supposed to that relevant in the next administration. It's very difficult for me to know what they're going to do. This election is about selling an economic dream, it's not about what the specifics are.
What he will come [to power] and do, I don't know. What should he do? I think we all know - India needs better labor laws, the labor laws are much too rigid; Indian fiscal spending is out of control, spending needs to be put under check; you can't have wage inflation which is running way higher than productivity levels; we can't have subsidies for so many essential items in India; and similarly we can't have retroactive taxes; we can't have regulation which is unclear for so many critical sectors in India from power to coal. So the list of what needs to be done is long, and expectations are high, but specifics of what have been offered in the campaign so far, as is true of most Indian election campaigns, has been low. BI: After a pretty terrible run, Indian equities have been doing well recently. Are they just riding on the sentiment of Modi? 
RS: I've seen in emerging markets over the past five to six months, all the emerging markets where you're expecting political change, markets have rallied quite a bit. We're seeing that in Indonesia, in India, and we're seeing that now in Brazil. Every time the polls show a drop for the incumbent there, the markets tend to rally.
There's a real feeling among investors in all these emerging markets, that economic change is required and reforms are required, because the old model is not delivering results anymore. Whether the incumbents are tired and out of energy or they got too complacent. So yes, politics has been playing a role in influencing the Indian market direction over the last five to six months.
Having said that I think the bigger picture is that the Indian market is one of the most highly correlated emerging markets in the world. In fact it's possibly the highest over a five, 10, 15 year period - there's no other emerging market that has a correlation as high, to other emerging markets, as India has. That still remains the dominant story but yeah, from a short-term stand point, it has been very driven by politics.
BI: Some have argued that it doesn't matter who comes to power, India's investment cycle is going to languish for a while. Do you agree with that? 
RS: I do sort of agree with the statement in that India's investment cycle has many problems which Modi may not be able to solve. For example a lot of stalled projects are at the state level, and not at the center. But having said that, I think the issue is that if he does carry out some of the critical reforms that we've spoken about - labor market reform, reducing government spending which allows interest rates to start coming down - I think those kinds of things will help investment.
That's economics 101, if you do manage to get lower interest rates because inflation is brought under control, you do manage to get some sort of labor market reforms that will help the investment cycle. 
<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_left click-to-enlarge"><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="AP Photo /Manish Swarup" title_caption="An Indian woman shows her finger marked with indelible ink after casting her vote at a village near Sawai Madhopur in Rajasthan." class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5369091d6da811231a673a78-960/indian-voter-blue.jpg"></a>AP Photo /Manish SwarupAn Indian woman shows her finger marked with indelible ink after casting her vote at a village near Sawai Madhopur in Rajasthan.</div></div>BI: Why should the rest of the world be watching the Indian elections? What are the implications for U.S. investors for instance?
RS: For U.S. investors, the key thing is that India has fallen off the map. After all the talk about China and India in the same breath, interest in India in general has faded a lot. Having said that, it is still a low-growth world, there are few growth opportunities out there. So if India manages to get its growth rate up to 6 to 7% or so, it becomes a meaningful thing because it's a $2 trillion economy, and if it starts growing again at 7%, rather than the 4.5% we're currently down to, it becomes an interesting opportunity for lots of people because it means the pie is growing faster. Without getting something to shake the system up it will be difficult to get growth again.
India, on the international stage, is a power that keeps punching below its weight. I don't think geopolitics is a factor at all. It's almost as if the world has told India go sort out your own problems in terms of the political and economic mess that we have. And in terms of geopolitics we're just not featuring much anymore. The focus in Asia, the pivot as you know, is basically about the rise of China and how that disturbs the relationship of other countries in the region. India is really out of that equation. Geopolitics isn't where India is featuring at the moment, it's really abut China and that west. 
BI: Is there anything else you'd like to add that I haven't asked you about?
RS: This is a big year for political change across the emerging world. Forty percent of all democracies in the emerging world are going to the polls this year. And there's a big anti-incumbency wave which is sweeping through the emerging world, where people want political change because they're fed up with the poor economic performance of the last two or three years. 
Even in India this was very different from five years ago when investors were rooting for the Congress party to come back to power. And on the first day when the party returned to power, on the first day the stock market had to be shutdown because it lost 15% in a day or something which is the maximum upper limit. That should also remind investors that initial reaction can be quite impulsive and you've got to look at things over a period of time and how things play themselves out. The initial reaction can be quite impulsive, up or down, when you get the results, but it's worth remembering back in 2009, how quickly expectations were disappointed after that initial burst of enthusiasm.

Top Emerging Markets Economist Tells Us India's Modi Is 'Selling A Dream'

New Delhi: In the world's largest democracy, every five years, a spectacular theatrical performance unfolds, captivating crores of people with its vibrancy, diversity, and sheer scale. Yes, we're talking about the <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lok-sabha-elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha Elections</keyword> in India. And we have the dates now for the grand finale: June 4! The Election Commission of India on Saturday announced the dates for the general elections to be held from April 19 to June 1 in seven phases. Chief Election Commissioner <keyword id="20110344" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rajiv-kumar" source="keywords">Rajiv Kumar</keyword> announced today that the results will be announced on June 4. Phase 1 voting will be held on April 19, Phase 2 on April 26, Phase 3 on May 7, Phase 4 on May 13, Phase 5 on May 20, Phase 6 on May 25, and Phase 7 on June 1. “We will take democracy to every corner of the country. It is our promise to deliver a national election in a manner that we... remain a beacon for democracy around the world,” said the Chief Election Commissioner. <div type="image" title="Polling schedule" agency="ANI" msid="108550459" hostid="261" sizebytes="17144" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Polling schedule (ANI)&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> The tenure of the present <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> ends on June 16 and a new House will have to be constituted before that. As the tenure of Andhra Pradesh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, and Odisha assemblies will also end in June, these states will get an early taste of the ‘one nation, one election’ process, wherein voters will be casting votes for both Lok Sabha and assembly elections. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="subhead" text="Model code of conduct kicks in">Model code of conduct kicks in</cmsannotation> With the announcement of election dates, the model code of conduct comes into immediate effect. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar asked all political parties and their leaders to strictly adhere to the poll code. The Model Code of Conduct (MCC) mandates that no party or candidate shall indulge in any activity which may aggravate existing differences, create mutual hatred or cause tension between different castes and communities, religious or linguistic, according to the set of guidelines issued by the EC. It lists out the dos and don'ts regarding general conduct, meetings, processions, conduct of parties and their candidates on polling day, polling booth, observers, party in power and guidelines on election manifestos. According to the guidelines, all parties and candidates shall avoid scrupulously all activities which are "corrupt practices" and offences under the election law, such as bribing of voters, intimidation of voters, impersonation of voters, canvassing within 100 meters of polling stations, holding public meetings during the period of 48 hours ending with the hour fixed for the close of the poll, and the transport and conveyance of voters to and from the polling station. Political parties and candidates shall ensure that their supporters do not create obstructions in or break up meetings and processions organized by other parties. As soon as the poll code comes into effect, the party in power be it at the Centre or in the State or states concerned, shall ensure that no cause is given for any complaint that it has used its official position for the purposes of its election campaign. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="subhead" text="Major players and issues">Major players and issues</cmsannotation> Undoubtedly, the scale and magnitude of a nationwide election in a country like India involve numerous complex considerations. However, the major political parties are hoping to narrow down the voter’s priorities to a few major foundational aspirations on which powerful campaigns can be built. Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword>, and his party <keyword id="19931558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bharatiya-janata-party" source="keywords">Bharatiya Janata Party</keyword> (BJP), are confident of reelection for a third consecutive term. They have pitched 'Modi Ki Guarantee' as the main theme of his campaign. PM's website describes it as a guarantee for the development of youth, empowerment of women, welfare of farmers, and all those marginalised and vulnerable who have been ignored for decades. In a letter to the citizens of India on March 15, the Prime Minister noted, “The trust and support of 140 crore Indians inspires and motivates me. The transformation that has taken place in the lives of the people is the biggest achievement of our government over the last 10 years. These transformative outcomes are the result of the sincere efforts made by a determined government to improve the quality of life for the poor, farmers, youth and women.” BJP is building its campaign by highlighting the welfare schemes of the government, infrastructural development across the country, and the rejuvenation of the country’s cultural heritage. The major opposition party <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="congress" source="keywords">Congress</keyword>, on the other hand, is banking on its <keyword id="20366194" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nyay" source="keywords">Nyay</keyword> guarantees to woo voters. The grand old party saw some success in the state elections of Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana when it pitched such 'Nyay' guarantees to the people. For the Lok Sabha polls, the party has put forward its 5 guarantees aimed at ensuring justice for youth, farmers, women, labourers, and participatory justice. The INDIA bloc, including the Congress, has been raising the issue of unemployment and rising prices of essential commodities. They have stated repeatedly that the lack of jobs is the single biggest issue and sought to corner the government over the issue. The BJP has hit back citing job growth and a fast-growing economy. Other major poll issues include electoral bonds, abrogation of Article 370, <keyword id="19963301" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="caa" source="keywords">CAA</keyword>, Uniform Civil Code, Ayodhya Ram Mandir, farmer protests for legal guarantee of MSP, and the Viksit Bharat vision of the government. Overall, India is poised to see an enthralling clash of ideologies, ideas, and personalities throughout the election season as the EC has opened the race for ruling the most populous country on Earth. (With inputs from ANI and PTI)

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