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<ul class="summary-list"><li>President Biden's spending plans are shaking up how people think about <keyword id="35043" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="economic-policy">economic policy</keyword>.</li><li>Debt fears are out, full employment and direct benefits are in, and inflation is the new big risk.</li><li>Here are 7 major shifts in thinking on government aid, according to a top economics professor.</li></ul><p>Though he was labeled as more moderate than some of his opponents in the Democratic primary, President Joe Biden frequently mentioned on the campaign trail that he'd be the most progressive president in history.</p><p>As far as economic policy goes, that claim is quickly proving true.</p><p>The $1.9 trillion <keyword id="45304" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Stimulus">stimulus</keyword> package championed by Biden and approved earlier this month was the second-largest stimulus passed in US history, behind only the CARES Act, passed at the start of the pandemic. The administration is now <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-advisers-3-trillion-proposal-boost-economy-infrastructure-climate-change-2021-3">eyeing another $3 trillion in spending</a> on infrastructure, childcare, and education, a price tag that was practically unthinkable just a decade ago.</p><p>It's not just the plans' sizes that set Biden apart. The White House's views toward the national debt, unemployment, and stimulus delivery also mark a shift from past administrations, and economic thinking. And while the <keyword id="6355253" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="federal-reserve">Federal Reserve</keyword> enjoys independence from the executive branch, it too has adopted new manners of pursuing healthy economic growth.</p><p>The changes signal "a big move in the center of gravity of economic policy debates," <keyword id="10989278" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="jw-mason">JW Mason</keyword>, an associate professor of economics at the City University of New York and a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, wrote in a March blog post. Here are the seven shifts that Mason see taking place in how the government pursues economic policy.</p><h2>(1) The headline unemployment rate isn't everything</h2><p>The health of the labor market has long been summarized by the U-3 unemployment rate. The gauge, updated each month, measures the number of people who are jobless but actively seeking work. While helpful, policymakers are paying more attention to alternative measures like the broader U-6 rate and the labor force participation rate to get a truer look at how the <keyword id="34412" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy">economy</keyword> is performing.</p><p>For one, the U-3 rate doesn't account for those discouraged from looking for work or those who work part-time but want a full-time job. There's also not a "well-defined labor force, but a smooth gradient of proximity to employment," Mason said, with the short-term unemployed the closest to the labor force and retired people furthest away. </p><p>The Fed hinted at the U-3 rate's ineffectiveness when it rolled out its new policy framework in August. Gone was its goal of pursuing full employment, replaced with a target of maximum employment. Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that, though baseline unemployment has fallen considerably, other gauges <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-jerome-powell-inflation-patient-stimulus-treasury-yields-reopening-monetarypolicy-2021-3">have made considerably less progress</a> toward reaching pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>Greater employment is necessary for the Fed to pull back on its accommodative monetary policy, but improved wage growth and gains across racial and gender lines are similarly critical, Powell said.</p><p>"Yes, 4% would be a nice unemployment rate, but it would take more than that to get to maximum employment," he added.</p><h2>(2) Weaker spending is the real enemy, not inflation</h2><p>Recessions are part of the natural economic growth cycle, and not random shocks to production or consumer spending, Mason said. </p><p>"Economic activity is a complex coordination problem," the professor said. "There are many ways it can break down or be interrupted that result in a fall in  spending, but not really any way it can abruptly accelerate."</p><p>Accordingly, it's demand shortfalls that pose a greater risk to long-term growth than unexpected bouts of overheating. Conservatives and moderate Democrats raised concerns that the latest stimulus plan <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-stimulus-debate-economic-growth-spending-federal-reserve-larry-summers-2021-3">will overfill the hole in the economy</a> and kickstart a period of stifling inflation. More progressive Democrats countered with the argument that passing too little stimulus could leave demand below levels needed for a full recovery.</p><p>When overheating occurs, it's "much easier to interrupt the flow of spending than to restart it," Mason said.</p><h2>(3) Keeping demand robust avoids a spiraling recession</h2><p>Another critical factor in the "demand vs overheating" fight is a term called "hysteresis," used to describe when effects borne of initial causes persist after those causes are removed.</p><p>Overheating may drive stronger inflation, but it usually gives way to higher productive capacity, Mason said. Conversely, weak demand drags on potential output and can spark a repeating cycle of ever-lower potential output.</p><p>"Big falls in demand may persist indefinitely unless they are offset by some large exogenous boost to demand," Mason added.</p><p>Biden's stimulus plan aims to be that large boost. The massive plan contrasts with the lone $831 billion recovery package passed during the Great Recession by President Barack Obama in 2009. While that package was the largest ever passed at the time, many economists have since <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-stimulus-outlook-state-local-government-aid-needed-risks-experts-2020-12">blamed its lack of adequate funding</a> for a slower-than-necessary rebound.</p><h2>(4) Maximum employment forms a more equitable economy</h2><p>Democrats' push to fuel a rapid recovery and supercharge demand will do more than lift incomes and overall output, Mason said. Maximum employment encourages innovation and faster productivity growth, and it evens out the distribution of income to benefit the country's lowest earners. </p><p>"Those who are most disadvantaged in the labor market, are the ones who benefit most from very low unemployment," Mason wrote. The Fed's updated mandate and the Biden administration's push for full and diverse employment suggest policy may soon target such gains.</p><h2>(5) Debt fears can wait, the recovery can't</h2><p>Notably absent from Democrats' push for the American Rescue Plan Act were squabbles over how much it would add to the federal debt pile. Neither the White House nor Congressional leadership "made even a gesture" toward cutting down the bill's price tag, Mason said. That's a stark difference from the Obama years when parties haggled over how the government would pay off the massive debt.</p><p>That's not to say the bill - and the relief packages that came before - don't have a major impact. The Congressional Budget Office estimated before the latest stimulus measure was approved that the federal debt would reach 102% of GDP by year end. The debt would then surge to 202% of GDP by 2051 unless laws changed, the office added.</p><p>So far in 2021, fears of runaway inflation have quickly become the biggest risk to the government's policy strategy, eclipsing decades of worrying about the rising federal debt. The Fed has said it plans to let inflation rise above 2% through the recovery, but <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-stimulus-debate-economic-growth-spending-federal-reserve-larry-summers-2021-3">critics charge</a> that overshooting the target could spark an economic crisis not seen since the 1960s.</p><p>Those projections did little to dissuade Democrats. The White House has since suggested it will pursue higher taxes, but its plans to spend trillions more on infrastructure and other improvements stand to offset those income gains.</p><h2>(6) Weekly payments for the unemployed</h2><p>US welfare measures have hinged on maintaining work incentives for decades. That changed with pandemic-era stimulus.</p><p>Federal supplements to unemployment benefits lifted those who lost work during the health crisis. For the first time in years, helping those left jobless took priority over ensuring that nobody was left better off for being unemployed, Mason said.</p><p>The federal benefit has shrunk from $600 per week to $300 per week, but remains in place into the fall. This policy, when coupled with the latest plan's child tax credit, "effectively abandons work incentives as a design principle" and might usher in a new era of jobless aid, Mason added.</p><h2>(7) Replacing government-guided aid with direct-to-consumer stimulus</h2><p>Compared to financial-crisis aid packages, ARPA does far more to push cash directly to Americans. The $1,400 direct payment, bolstered unemployment benefit, and child tax credit all give households cash to spend as they please. This differs drastically from previous stimulus plans, which included indirect spending aimed at altering incentives, Mason said.</p><p>"What's interesting here is that it reflects a view that making the payments more salient is a good thing, not a bad thing," he added.</p>

7 ways America's economy could change forever under Biden, from a top economics professor

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US could reach even higher than expected levels of full <keyword id="6355127" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="employment">employment</keyword> over the next decade.</li><li>A new paper from the <keyword id="280481" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Roosevelt-Institute">Roosevelt Institute</keyword> finds the employment-population ratio could be 68% by 2031.</li><li>To do this, the authors looked at gaps in employment by race, gender, and education.</li></ul><p>As the US continues to recover from the pandemic, a new paper finds the number of Americans with jobs could potentially eventually be far higher than before the crisis took a toll on workers and businesses. </p><p>The Roosevelt Institute just released <a href="https://rooseveltinstitute.org/publications/reimagining-full-employment-28-million-more-jobs-and-a-more-equal-economy/">a paper </a>that looks at what full employment could look like in a decade by looking at how much additional job growth is needed to close gaps by age, race, education, and gender.</p><p>Based on their research, the authors find the employment-population ratio could be 68% by 2031, higher than ratios <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO#0">reported since 1948</a>. The authors note this is about 10 points higher than the Congressional Budget Office's projections of maximum employment.</p><p>Closing the employment gaps for race, gender, and education could mean the US reaches 190 million workers by 2031, or about 28 million more jobs than CBO's projections, the authors found.</p><p>"Moving toward true full employment will have tremendous benefits - not just more growth, but a more equal <keyword id="34412" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy">economy</keyword>," Lauren Melodia, deputy director of macroeconomic analysis at the Roosevelt Institute and one of the authors, said in a press release. "With strong public investment, we can greatly reduce the employment gaps between Black and white workers, women and men, and those with more and less formal education." </p><p>"If full employment means that everybody who wants to work and is able to work has a job, we were very far from that in 2019. And that suggests that we potentially have space for much faster growth if we can sustain demand over the next decade than a lot of people are expecting," J.W. Mason, a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute and one of the report's authors, told Insider. "So the larger story here is the possibility of a real historic boom in the coming years."</p><p>The employment-population ratio took a hit during the pandemic, reaching a record low of 51.3% in April 2020 as people left the labor force or had their jobs cut. The ratio is now back up to 58.0% as of June 2021, still below pre-pandemic rates. </p><p>But the new paper argues that there needs to be "sufficient demand" to help get more Black Americans, women, and less-educated Americans into jobs and to reach full employment.</p><p>For example, take the employment gap over time for Black and white workers. The authors write that gap widens during recessions but narrows during tight labor <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword>.</p><p>"Because less-favored groups - Black workers, women, those with less formal education, those just entering the labor market - are generally last hired and first fired, the gaps between more- and less-favored groups vary systematically over the business cycle," the authors wrote.</p><p>There aren't enough jobs for everyone, Mason said, so some people don't get hired while some are more "systematically favored in the labor market," making it harder for some Americans to get hired even if they're a qualified candidate.</p><p>"The data shows employment prospects for disadvantaged groups are more dependent on labor market conditions than for more privileged groups," the authors wrote. "Employment gaps by age, education, and especially race are strongly responsive to current labor market conditions, as reflected in the unemployment rate."</p><p>The unemployment rate for Black workers is 9.2% and 5.2% for white workers as of June 2021. Right before the pandemic, the difference between these two unemployment rates was three percentage points.</p><p>"When there aren't enough jobs to go around, the people at the front of the line get hired and the people at the back of the line don't," Mason said. Historically, this includes Black Americans, women, and less educated workers. Mason notes we also need to improve childcare to get women back in the labor market, as care disproportionately falls on women.</p>

The US economy could have 28 million more jobs over the next decade than the federal government thinks

<ul class="summary-list"><li>More than 26 million people have applied for <keyword id="156351" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="unemployment-insurance">unemployment insurance</keyword> since the <keyword id="1754604" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="coronavirus">coronavirus</keyword> pandemic began. But millions more have been ignored.</li><li>That figure doesn't count an estimated 13.9 million Americans who have not been able to file for unemployment benefits, according to a new survey by the <keyword id="184751" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Economic-Policy-Institute">Economic Policy Institute</keyword> (EPI).</li><li>The economic downturn will be "even worse" without immediate further aid, said Elise Gould, an EPI economist. Other economists agreed.</li><li>"There's no question that even when the immediate public health crisis is over, we're going to be looking at the worst depression that the US has experienced at least since the Great Depression of the 1930s," said JW Mason, an economist at CUNY's John Jay College of Criminal Justice.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul><p>The coronavirus pandemic has left record-breaking numbers of Americans unemployed. Since mid-March, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/u-s-jobless-claims-reach-26-million-coronavirus-hit-wiping-n1190296">more than 26 million workers</a> have filed for unemployment insurance.</p><p>But that figure is an undercount: Up to 13.9 million more Americans could not file for the benefits, according to a new survey from the Economic Policy Institute (EPI).</p><p>"We're missing data on millions more people who have lost their job and have unsuccessful with unable to apply or haven't applied yet," Elise Gould, an EPI economist, told Business Insider. </p><p>Policymakers have "made great headway" in expanding unemployment benefits during the crisis, Gould said, but the assistance is not coming quickly enough since state unemployment offices are overwhelmed with applications.</p><p>More importantly, Gould said, there's too little funding at the state and local level. </p><p>"That has been under-appreciated and will continue to cause problems that would be avoidable," Gould said. </p><p>For every 10 jobless Americans who applied for unemployment insurance, four tried to but "could not get through the system to make a claim," <a href="https://www.epi.org/blog/unemployment-filing-failures-new-survey-confirms-that-millions-of-jobless-were-unable-to-file-an-unemployment-insurance-claim/">the EPI found</a>. "Two additional people did not try to apply because it was too difficult to do so."</p><p>Since March 15,  "an additional 8.9 [million to] 13.9 million people could have filed for benefits had the process been easier," wrote EPI economists Ben Zipperer and Gould. </p><p>"We want to do whatever we can to help state and localities get through that period – and not clamp down on the recovery," Gould said.</p><p>JW Mason, an economist at CUNY's John Jay College of Criminal Justice, agreed.</p><p>"There's no question that even when the immediate public health crisis is over, we're going to be looking at the worst depression that the US has experienced at least since the Great Depression of the 1930s," Mason said. </p><h2>'Policymakers really need to step up'</h2><p>Millions of newly jobless Americans are already withstanding severe economic pain, like Sandra Dickson, a small-business owner in Oklahoma who is still waiting on unemployment insurance.</p><p>"I'm not quite sure how long I can hold up financially without having to seek help" beyond government aid, Dickson told Business Insider earlier in April. "I'm really struggling with that issue and I've been starting to call others in similar situations and just struggling with when do I open my doors for finances versus the health net for me."</p><p>But financial and personal well-being should not be mutually exclusive, Gould said.</p><p>"People are under the false impression that there's this dichotomy between protecting people's health and protecting people's economic wellbeing," she said.</p><p><div type="image" title="Food bank" height="3381" width="4508" msid="75437418" hostid="261"></div></p><p>"That's where policymakers really need to step up more," she continued. "We can get through this economic devastation if we provide sufficient funding to households and to state and local governments to get through this." </p><p>Without swift further action, Gould said, the looming economic recession will get "even worse." </p><p>Policymakers have all the tools they need to keep households and state and local governments afloat, the economists said. The key is simple: More funding.</p><p>The scale of stimulus funding, they said, needs to address the evictions sure to come from people unable to pay rent, and other economic ripple effects from the crisis.</p><p>"If we can get enough spending at the federal level, we can stop this from turning into a deep depression," Mason told Business Insider. "But it's going to take a stimulus well beyond what we've already seen." </p><p>"We can get through this economic devastation if we provide sufficient funding to households and to state and local governments to get through this," Gould added.</p>Read the original article on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-pandemic-job-losses-14-million-unable-to-apply-unemployment-2020-4">Business Insider</a>

America's real coronavirus job losses could be worse than we thought. Nearly 14 million people haven't been able to apply to unemployment since the pandemic began.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Housing organizers and tenants across the United States plan to hold <keyword id="9148489" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="rent-strike">rent strike</keyword> Friday, May 1.</li><li>Landlords say a rent strike would disrupt "the entire financial ecosystem."</li><li>But renters say they have no choice: Since the pandemic began, tens of millions of Americans have lost their jobs, leaving them without a steady income.</li><li>Without government intervention, "we're looking at a huge wave of evictions coming down the road," said economist J.W. Mason.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul><p>"Before the COVID-19 virus, 70% of our income went toward rent," said Vanessa Bulnes, 61, her voice crackling over a Zoom call with housing organizers and media on Thursday. </p><p>Like tens of millions of tenants around the country, Bulnes and her 71-year-old husband, who live in Oakland, California, are out of work.</p><p>Even before the crisis, housing was not affordable, she said. Her husband suffered a stroke just before the 2009 financial crisis, and she's been the sole breadwinner ever since.</p><p>"We've always been on the edge of homelessness," Bulnes said.</p><p>On Friday, May 1, Bulnes will join the legion of tenants unable to pay rent. It's not clear exactly how many renters will go on strike, but organized efforts in New York, Pennsylvania, California, Missouri, Washington state, and elsewhere point to the largest rent strike in decades.</p><p>"We need our rent canceled," Bulnes said. "We need forgiveness. We need it gone."</p><h2>Millions of Americans face 'economically devastating' bills and costs</h2><p>This week, the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) <a href="https://www.epi.org/blog/unemployment-filing-failures-new-survey-confirms-that-millions-of-jobless-were-unable-to-file-an-unemployment-insurance-claim/">announced</a> that although some 26 million Americans have filed for <keyword id="6358907" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="unemployment">unemployment</keyword> benefits since the crisis began — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unemployment-filings-labor-market-recession-coronavirus-2020-4">a number that rose to 30 million since its study was published</a> — that number drastically understates the economic devastation in the US.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-pandemic-job-losses-14-million-unable-to-apply-unemployment-2020-4">a survey published on Tuesday</a>, the think tank found that up to 13.9 million other Americans were eligible for the benefits. A portion of those people applied but never had their documents processed. Others "did not try to apply because it was too difficult to do so." </p><p>In other words, only around half of Americans who are eligible for benefits actually received them. EPI's research signals looming economic pain for millions, according to Elise Gould, an EPI economist who co-wrote the study.</p><p>"People are going to have to pay their rent and their mortgage and all of their other bills," Gould told Business Insider. "And these weights are economically devastating for them."</p><p>Already, an enormous number of people haven't paid rent on time. This month, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/08/829850505/millions-didnt-pay-rent-last-week-amid-pandemic-woes">nearly one-in-three tenants</a> did not pay rent by the end of the first week of April.</p><p><div type="image" title="Tenants end a three-day hunger strike outside City Hall, New York City, New York, on June 1, 2018." height="2003" width="2671" msid="75482257" hostid="261"></div></p><p>Landlords, however, say that a rent strike would just worsen economic conditions. A nationwide rent strike is "counterproductive," Bob Pinnegar, CEO of the National Apartment Association, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/survival-tenants-landlords-brace-largest-rent-strike-decades-n1195751">told NBC News</a>.</p><p>"There's definitely growing concerns," he said. "Everyone anticipates that there's going to be distress, and it's going to be more pronounced than April."</p><p>Doug Bibby, head of the National Multifamily Housing Council, which represents apartment owners and managers, called a rent strike "reckless."</p><p>"These people don't think through who they're hurting, and they're disrupting the entire financial ecosystem in doing this," Bibby told NBC <keyword id="6355005" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="news">News</keyword>. "They think they're hurting the big, bad landlord, and what they're really hurting are all kinds of people just like themselves, and they are spreading the economic malaise more broadly in the <keyword id="34412" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="economy">economy</keyword>."</p><h2>Advocates and tenants say they have no choice</h2><p>But advocates and tenants see it differently disagree. They don't have a choice of whether to pay rent, said Winsome Pendegrass, a housing organizer based in New York City.</p><p>"Since the 18th of March, I am not working," Pendegrass said on the Zoom call, organized by a group of grassroots organizations representing working-class people, led by the Action Center for Race and the Economy.</p><p>Pendegrass said she managed to pay her landlord that month. But "in May, they're not going to get it – not because I don't want to pay, but because I can't pay," she said.</p><p>Policymakers need to help tenants, J.W. Mason, an economist at CUNY's John Jay College of Criminal Justice, told Business Insider.</p><p>"Otherwise we're looking at a huge wave of evictions coming down the road," Mason said, praising Minnesota <a href="https://omar.house.gov/sites/omar.house.gov/files/Omar%20-%20Rent%20%26%20Mortgage%20Cancellation%20Act%20-One%20Pager%20and%20Legislative%20Framework.pdf">Rep. Ilhan Omar's recent rent cancellation bill proposal</a>. "And that's an incredibly socially disruptive process."</p><p><div type="image" title="rent strike" height="2049" width="2732" msid="75482259" hostid="261"></div></p><p>The economic devastation will be most acute for black and brown communities, <a href="https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/aclu-calls-state-officials-prevent-mass-evictions-amid-covid-19">the ACLU has warned</a>.</p><p>"Evictions and utility shut-offs will disproportionately harm communities of color, and particularly, women of color. All residents — regardless of their circumstances or background — should have access to safe and stable housing throughout the course of this ongoing public health crisis," said Sandra Park, senior staff attorney at the ACLU.</p><p>Seventeen states, plus Washington, D.C., Guam, and the Virgin Islands, have fully suspended eviction cases and enforcement, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/e/2PACX-1vTH8dUIbfnt3X52TrY3dEHQCAm60e5nqo0Rn1rNCf15dPGeXxM9QN9UdxUfEjxwvfTKzbCbZxJMdR7X/pubhtml">according to researchers</a> at Columbia University Law School and the University of Pennsylvania Law School.</p><p>Organizers and tenants praise the moratoria. And they also fear the day they're gone. </p><p>"My landlord may not be able to evict my right now," Tiana Caldwell, an organizer based in Kansas City, Missouri, said on the media call. "But what's stopping him from evicting us as soon as the moratorium lifts?"</p><p>"I can't pay rent and it's not my fault," she added. "I need my governor and my federal government to use their extended power in this crisis to do their job: Protect tenants and cancel rent."</p>Read the original article on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rent-strike-us-tenants-landlords-may-2020-4">Business Insider</a>

Tenants in the US are planning the largest rent strike in decades as the coronavirus cuts off more than 30 million people from their incomes

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">U.S. President Trump departs on travel to the Texas from the White House in Washington</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul class="summary-list"><li>George Mason University Law Professor J.W. Verret went viral on Twitter for stating that he supports impeachment after reading the Mueller report. </li></ul><ul class="summary-list"><li>Verret, who briefly advised the Trump pre-transition team in 2016, said he viewed the Mueller report as a "tipping point" and the Republican party's current standing by Trump as verging into "<span>a blind devotion that serves to enable criminal conduct."</span></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.</a></li></ul><p>Democrats are facing heightened pressure to take a stand on whether to impeach President in the wake of special counsel Robert Mueller's report, with Senators and 2020 presidential candidates <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elizabeth-warren-no-political-convenience-exception-to-impeachment-2019-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Elizabeth Warren</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-trump-impeachment-2020-democrat-president-candidate-2019-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kamala Harris</a> voicing support for the move. </p><p>And now, a longtime Republican lawyer is also voicing support for Congress to initiate impeachment proceedings. </p><p>This past weekend, George Mason University Law Professor J.W. Verret - who's advised every Republican presidential pre-transition team for the last 10 years and served as counsel for Republicans on the House Financial Services committee - went viral on Twitter for stating that he supports impeachment after reading the Mueller report. </p><p><span>"Finished a second read through the Mueller Report. I don't say this lightly, as a lifelong Republican, former [Republican] Hill staffer, and someone who has worked on every [Republican] campaign and pre-transition team for the last ten years. There is enough here to begin impeachment proceedings," <a href="https://twitter.com/JWVerret/status/1119690984173056001" target="_blank" rel="noopener">he wrote. </a></span></p><p><em><strong>Read more: </strong></em><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elizabeth-warren-no-political-convenience-exception-to-impeachment-2019-4" data-analytics-position="1">Elizabeth Warren says 'there's no political-convenience exception to the US constitution' when it comes to impeaching Trump</a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/gop-staffer-advocates-trumps-impeachment/587785/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a follow-up piece for The Atlantic</a>, Verret, who teaches corporate and securities law, said he joined Trump's pre-transition team (each major party presidential candidate sets up a team before the election to get a head start on the transition) despite misgivings about the then-Republican nominee.</p><p>Verret explained that even after leaving his post as an economic policy advisor on the Trump pre-transition effort in October 2016 over "awkward" policy disagreements, he didn't join the so-called "Never Trump" movement.</p><p>He wrote that while "<keyword id="6358883" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="politics">politics</keyword> is a team sport" where people can be reasonably expected to follow their leader even if they sometimes disagree with them, he viewed the Mueller report as a "tipping point" and the Republican party's current standing by Trump as verging into "<span>a blind devotion that serves to enable criminal conduct."</span></p><p>While the report documented extensive contacts between the Trump campaign and Russia, Mueller did not find sufficient evidence to charge Trump or anyone associated with his campaign with criminal conspiracy related to Russia's efforts to interfere in the 2016 election.</p><p>On the question of obstruction, the Mueller report laid out 11 different areas of Trump's conduct they examined for potential obstruction but said the office could not come to a "traditional prosecutorial decision"<span> </span><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-mueller-didnt-charge-trump-with-obstruction-of-justice-2019-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">as to whether Trump obstructed justice.</a></p><p><em><strong>Read more: </strong></em><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-americans-think-about-obstruction-of-justice-2019-4" data-analytics-position="1">Bad news for Trump: 64% of Americans think attempting and failing to obstruct justice is as bad as obstructing justice</a></p><p><span>The report said that while they could not indict the president on charges of obstruction of justice, they were also unable to "reach a judgment" that "the President clearly did not commit obstruction of justice" - leaving the next steps up to Congress to determine whether Trump's actions warrant impeachment.</span></p><p>Some have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-battle-brewing-over-impeaching-trump-2019-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">questioned the political feasibility of impeachment</a>, given that Trump would need to be not only impeached by the House but convicted by a two-thirds majority of the currently Republican-controlled Senate. </p><p>But Verret argued that the House opening up impeachment hearings, which he compared to a grand jury hearing, could bring more information to light and the resulting shift in popular opinion could result in congressional Republicans feeling "emboldened" to convict. </p><p><span>"Republicans who stand up to Trump today may face some friendly fire," Verret said. "Yet, in time, we can help rebuild the Republican Party, enabling it to rise from the ashes of the post-Trump apocalypse into a party with renewed commitment to principles of liberty, opportunity, and the rule of law."</span></p><h3><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/gop-staffer-advocates-trumps-impeachment/587785/">Read the full op-ed at the Atlantic»</a></h3>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mueller-report-trump-takeaways-from-redacted-version-russia-investigation-2019-4">Here are 7 takeaways from special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

'I realized enough was enough': A law professor and former Trump transition staffer says Congress should impeach Trump

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">A recruiter talks with a job seeker at the Construction Careers Now! hiring event in Denver</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul><li><strong>Forecasts for America's economic growth potential have been slashed post-crisis.</strong></li><li><strong>US GDP remains 15% below the pre-Great Recession trend, according to a study.</strong></li><li><strong>This helps explain the lack of wage growth, and the sense of exclusion from the recovery.</strong></li></ul><p>Expectations are everything, especially in economics.</p><p>That's why a distinct lack of progress in a few basic measures of economic progress, particularly relative to pre-crisis expectations, has left many Americans questioning how much they have personally benefitted from the economic recovery.<br /><span></span></p><p>A new report from the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal think tank in Washington, highlights a number of ways in which "the recovery since 2009 is, in a sense, a statistical illusion."</p><p><a href="http://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Monetary-Policy-Report-070617-2.pdf">The study finds the nation's total economic output</a>, its gross domestic product, "remains about 15% below the pre-recession trend, a larger gap than at the bottom of the recession." The first chart below shows that lag, while the second offers insights into just how badly the crisis dented expectations about the future. </p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Roosevelt Institute</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Roosevelt Institute</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>Strong employment gains in recent months have <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-jobs-report-july-2017-8">brought the jobless rate down to a historically-low 4.3%.</a> However, this decline has not been accompanied by rising incomes or consumer prices, generally associated with a sustainable economic boom. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/slow-wage-growth-from-demographics-and-employers-2017-5">Some Federal Reserve policymakers have found this trend puzzling</a>, while many labor economists point to underlying weaknesses in the job market, including high levels of underemployment and long-term joblessness, as drags on income.</span><span> </span></p><p>Stagnant wages amid rising profits have meant that the wage share in US national income has fallen from 63% to 57% in the last 15 years, according to the report.</p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Roosevelt Institute</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p><span>"It is impossible for the wage share to ever rise if the central bank will not allow a period of 'excessive' wage growth," writes J.W. Mason, who authored the report. "A rise in the wage share necessarily requires a period in which wages rise faster than would be consistent with longterm macroeconomic stability."</span></p><p>In other words, if Fed officials tighten monetary policy at the first sign of wage increases, they will never allow the imbalances that have built up, including deep income disparities, to be torn down. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-jobs-report-july-2017-8">Average hourly earnings rose just 2.5% on a yearly basis in July</a>, nothing to write home about and certainly not enough to begin the ground lost over the last decade and more. <br /><span></span></p><p>Business investment, which is key to long-run economic growth, has also been dismal during the now eight-year expansion.</p><p>"There is no precedent for the weakness of investment in the current cycle. Nearly ten years later, real investment spending remains less than 10% above its 2007 peak," Mason writes.</p><p>"This is slow even relative to the anemic pace of GDP growth, and extremely low by historical standards. In the three previous [economic] cycles lasting that long, real investment spending had increased anywhere from 30 to 80 percent. Even shorter cycles saw substantially greater investment growth." <span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Roosevelt Institute</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>Finally, Mason looks at whether the economy is at risk of running hot, generating inflation, which central bank officials cite to justify interest rate increases. The Fed has raised interest rates three times since December 2015 to a range of 1% to 1.25%. </span></p><p>"On the contrary, we argue, while a myopic focus on one or another data series might support a story of binding supply constraints, the behavior of the economy as a whole is much more consistent with a situation of depressed demand-an extended recession," the report concludes.</p><p>"The overall picture also makes it unclear what actual danger is posed by overheating in the conventional sense. Most of the obvious costs of overheating - higher inflation, higher interest rates, a rising wage share - would be desirable under current circumstances."</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-bottom-line-stock-market-records-apple-tesla-tech-earnings-jim-glassman-economy-2017-8">THE BOTTOM LINE: New record highs for stocks and a deep dive into Apple's iPhone</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

4 depressing charts that show why many Americans don't feel the economy has recovered

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><ul class="summary-list"><li><span style="color: #000000;">Jessyn Farrell is the senior vice president at Civic Ventures and co-host of this week's Pitchfork Economics episode. </span></li><li><span style="color: #000000;">In this opinion piece, she argues that the Green New Deal policy is effective because it directly counters the narrative of trickle-down economics. It promises to create a new economy and jobs, fighting the narrative that climate measures require austerity and cutting back.</span></li><li>The plan would stimulate the economy - and spending. It would also directly benefit women and people of color, coupling economic and climate growth with societal change.</li><li>For more on this topic, listen to the latest episode of <a href="http://www.pitchforkeconomics.com/episode/will-bad-economics-kill-the-green-new-deal-with-naomi-klein-and-j-w-mason/">Pitchfork Economics</a><span style="color: #222222;">. </span></li><li><strong style="color: #222222;"><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</strong></li></ul><p>The debate is over. Every reasonable person now understands that climate change is a human-made problem and a crisis that must be averted. In some parts of the country, like my home state of Washington, the debate has been over for some time. Our governor, Jay Inslee, heroically inserted climate change as a topic into the Democratic presidential campaign earlier this year, and our voters roundly prefer climate-friendly candidates on the national, statewide, and local levels.</p><p>Though all that is true, in 2016 and in 2018 Washington state voters decisively rejected carbon tax initiatives that would have strengthened our environmental credentials. Stranger still, some internal polling indicated that the carbon tax was popular with the electorate before support largely evaporated.</p><p>What happened? Why did arguably the most climate-friendly electorate in the US turn its back on positive environmental policy? As soon as Big Oil and other opponents started using the familiar framing of trickle-down economics - warning voters, falsely, that more responsible regulation would result in higher costs for them and fewer jobs for everyone - voters turned on the carbon tax. It's a textbook example of how trickle-down economics coaxes the middle class into voting against its own interests.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><p>That's why I'm so inspired by the success of the Green New Deal as a policy - it flips the trickle-down narrative on its head. Instead of the tired argument that environmental regulations kill jobs, the Green New Deal promises to create millions of good-paying jobs. Rather than arguing that the fight against climate change will require sacrifice and austerity, the Green New Deal promises a prosperous new clean economy, built from the middle out.</p><p><a href="http://www.pitchforkeconomics.com/episode/will-bad-economics-kill-the-green-new-deal-with-naomi-klein-and-j-w-mason/">In the latest episode of the Pitchfork Economics podcast</a>, Nick Hanauer and I got to talk with environmental leaders Naomi Klein and J.W. Mason about the success of the Green New Deal as an idea and what it would look like in practice.</p><p>Klein has been at the forefront of the environmental conversation for years, and this episode perfectly demonstrates why: she's one of our sharpest and most compelling thinkers on environmental policy. In her latest book, "On Fire," Klein makes an argument for the Green New Deal that helped expand my thinking about what is possible. This passage in particular, is a distillation of her thinking:</p><p><em>When we talk about "green jobs" - and we talk about them a lot - most of us picture a guy in a hard hat putting up a solar array. Sure, that is one kind of green job, and we need lots of them. But there are plenty of other jobs that are already low-carbon. For instance, looking after elderly and sick people doesn't burn a lot of carbon. Making art doesn't burn a lot of carbon. Teaching kids is low-carbon. Day care is low-carbon. And yet this work, overwhelmingly done by women, tends to be undervalued, underpaid, and is frequently the target of government cutbacks.</em></p><p>This realization, Klein writes, "extend[s] the usual definition of a green job to anything useful and enriching to our communities that doesn't burn a lot of fossil fuels."</p><p>When you expand the idea of what a Green New Deal encompasses, the plan becomes much more exciting, and its immediate benefits touch everyone in the nation. Consumer spending by people in these high-wage low-carbon-impact jobs will stimulate the economy, creating value that will finally quiet the eternal complaining of the <em>how-will-you-pay-for-it</em> crowd. And as Klein noted, the demographics that will see the biggest benefits from the expansion of these sectors are women and people of color, who tend to earn markedly less than their neighbors on average.</p><p>By encouraging workers to pursue low-carbon fields of employment, we will be protecting the environment, meeting our societal needs, and strengthening the economy - all at the same time.  Best of all, there's a clear historical precedent for this: the Works Progress Administration in Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal, which employed not just construction workers and engineers to build much-needed infrastructure projects but also actors and painters and writers and all kinds of artists to create public art that buoyed spirits and reminded Americans of our common cause - something that we desperately need right now. Imagine, for instance, a "Civilian Care Corps" that provides much-needed child care, shores up elder care for an aging populace, and addresses the widening geographic and economic inequalities in our national health and child care sectors.</p><p>For too long, trickle-downers have argued against environmental jobs on a balance-sheet basis, claiming that job losses and business closures will accompany any responsible carbon legislation. The only way they could turn voters to their side was by threatening your livelihoods and communities. It's hard to argue with someone when they threaten your children's future. </p><p>Progressives finally have a response to these threats that is compelling, optimistic, and - best of all - entirely true. By bringing everyone into the climate fight, progressives will create massive political change the same way we did with same-sex marriage and gun responsibility: by swaying one neighbor at a time with personal stories and an appeal to our better natures. This is the optimistic call that promises a cleaner, safer, more economically sound future for everyone - a call to save the world by changing the world.</p><p><strong><em>Listen to the Podcast: </em></strong><em>In 2014, venture capitalist Nick Hanauer warned his fellow plutocrats that our growing crisis of economic inequality would lead to an uprising or a dictatorship. Two years later, angry voters elected Donald Trump. In </em><em><a href="http://www.pitchforkeconomics.com/">Pitchfork Economics</a>, Nick explores why the pitchforks are coming, who they're coming for, and how the stories we tell about the economy can change the economy itself.</em></p><p class="tagline">This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author(s).</p>

The Green New Deal is the perfect retort to trickle-down fear-mongers: Finally, progressives have the game-changing argument that can swing a majority of Americans toward a better future

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