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<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19918985" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Donald-Trump" source="keywords">Donald Trump</keyword> won the election with the help of personalities like <keyword id="20341465" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Joe-Rogan" source="keywords">Joe Rogan</keyword>.</li><li>Rogan is a podcaster, right? Well, yes, but he's also a YouTuber.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-joe-rogan-tony-hinchcliffe-rally-election-campaign-2024-10">Podcasts played a huge role in getting Donald Trump re-elected</a> this week. Right? Or maybe it was Twitter. Or TikTok. Could be all of them. And it could also be that people interested in those mediums and platforms have reasons to want to believe they were important. But if you're going to look at the way the internet played a role in the election and you're not talking about YouTube, you're doing it wrong. So, once again: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/youtube-valuation-mrbeast-how-much-worth-2024-3">YouTube is massive</a> — so massive <a target="_blank" href="https://abc.xyz/assets/71/a5/78197a7540c987f13d247728a371/2024q3-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf">it generated $50 billion in revenue over the last year</a>, with the majority of that coming from advertising. Advertisers are spending that money because that's where the eyeballs are. And certainly, some of those eyeballs consumed a lot of political/election content over the last year. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/fact-sheet/social-media-and-news-fact-sheet/">Pew Research</a> says 32% of American adults regularly get their news from YouTube — more than any other social media platform except for Facebook, at 33%. And I'm very confident — based on my non-scientific poll of my teenage sons, who inhale YouTube — that those numbers are way, way bigger for young people. What do people who watch political stuff watch on YouTube? In some cases, it's just another version of TV: Fox News reportedly drew as many as 1.1 million concurrent viewers for its election-day livestream on YouTube. That was about 10% of its conventional TV audience, but still notable for a platform that skews very young. Overall, YouTube viewers consumed 67 million hours of live streams on Election Day, per <a target="_blank" href="https://fortune.com/2024/11/06/youtube-election-news-trump-harris-twitch-rumble-stream-fox-nbc/">Streams Charts</a>. But what was most interesting about the election was the way the Trump campaign spent the summer embracing YouTube personalities. Starting with people you've heard of, like Joe Rogan, down to ones you may have never heard of before this year, like the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/FULLSENDPODCAST">Nelk Boys</a>. Wait a minute! I can hear you saying. Isn't Joe Rogan a podcaster? Absolutely. But Rogan, like many other creators/influencers/personalities, creates content that lives on multiple platforms at the same time. You can listen to his <keyword id="20677488" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="podcasts" source="keywords">podcasts</keyword> on Spotify, but you can listen to them — and watch them — on YouTube. And that happens way more often than you might think. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.edisonresearch.com/youtube-is-the-preferred-podcast-listening-service/">Edison Research</a> says YouTube — including both regular, free YouTube and YouTube's paid YouTube Music service — is the most popular way for people to listen to (or watch) podcasts. You can see it in some of the numbers. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBMoPUAeLnY">Rogan's October interview with Trump</a> has drawn a staggering 47 million views (note: Don't try comparing this to a TV rating, since YouTube reportedly counts a "view" as 30 seconds of watching — and someone who watches for a bit, stops and comes back to the same video later in the day, will count as a second view). <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRyyTAs1XY8">The one he did with JD Vance</a> this month is now above 15 million. But even <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/@joerogan">a standard-issue Rogan interview</a> can generate 2 million views or more. And there is a universe of conservative podcasts, or podcasts that aren't political but are open to conservative guests that do big numbers on YouTube, from former Fox hosts Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly to former reality TV star Theo Von. Trump visited all of them. You can also find bits of their shows on places like Instagram and TikTok. But they focus their efforts on YouTube, for the reasons many creators do. For starters, you can find a big audience there. And YouTube's algorithmic discovery mechanism means creators can get themselves in front of audiences that weren't looking for them. Podcast audiences, by contrast, grow slowly — but tend to stick around once they connect with someone they like, says Chris Balfe, CEO of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.redseatventures.com/clients">Red Seat Ventures</a>, a company that helps the likes of Carlson, Kelly and The Free Press' Bari Weiss sell ads for their shows. And, unlike platforms like Instagram and TikTok — podcasters can get a meaningful share of the <keyword id="20015770" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="advertising-revenue" source="keywords">advertising revenue</keyword> generated by their YouTube audiences. (There are also liberal/left podcasters/YouTubers, like Crooked Media, the company behind Pod Save America. But there aren't nearly as many of them, and they don't have the same kind of reach, as journalist <a target="_blank" href="https://www.usermag.co/p/why-democrats-wont-build-their-own">Taylor Lorenz notes</a>.) So should we be calling these folks podcasters? Or YouTubers? Yes, says Balfe. "I think they're the same thing. We should think about it as a podcast plus a <keyword id="23944857" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="YouTube-election" source="keywords">YouTube election</keyword>," he says. "Or a <keyword id="20437786" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="creator-economy" source="keywords">creator economy</keyword> election. The best-performing talents do well everywhere." Correction: November 11, 2024 — Streams Charts is the name of the company that tallied Election Day YouTube live-stream viewing, not Stream Charts.

Let's call it the YouTube election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>How big is Joe Rogan? So big that he can launch Tony Hinchcliffe, the comedian who appeared at Trump's rally.</li><li>Not coincidentally, Rogan is so big that Trump spent three hours — three hours! — on Rogan's podcast last week.</li></ul>Last Friday, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-3-hours-late-to-own-rally-joe-rogan-interview-2024-10">Joe Rogan hosted Donald Trump on his podcast</a>, which was a coup for both men: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBMoPUAeLnY">The three-hour interview/conversation</a> has since racked up more than 34 million views on YouTube.That wasn't the only prominent Rogan-Trump tie-up this weekend. On Sunday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-rally-elon-musk-save-department-government-efficiency-2024-10">Trump's New York City rally</a> at Madison Square Garden featured a set from comedian Tony Hinchcliffe — a prominent member of the Roganverse.If the words in the paragraph above don't make much sense to you, you're not alone: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/puerto-rican-stars-support-kamala-harris-amid-trump-rally-controversy-2024-10">The internet is full of items Monday trying to explain who Hinchcliffe is</a>, and how a guy best known for scabrous "roast" comedy ended up onstage stumping for Trump, and whether <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/puerto-rican-stars-support-kamala-harris-amid-trump-rally-controversy-2024-10">Hinchcliffe's joke insulting everyone who lives in or comes from Puerto Rico was a good idea</a>.<div type="image" title="Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at Donald Trump's Madison Square Garden rally" height="3551" width="4998" msid="114705591" hostid="261" sizebytes="321898"></div>But back to Rogan and Hinchcliffe. How, exactly, are they connected?You can read all about it in this <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-07-25/how-joe-rogan-s-comedy-club-made-austin-texas-a-comedy-hub">excellent Bloomberg story</a> from this summer, which explains how Rogan moved from Los Angeles to Austin in 2020 and created an influential comedy hub there.Hinchcliffe was one of several comedians who followed Rogan there and has since seen his career take off — "Exhibit A of the Rogan flywheel," as Bloomberg's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/AQBn9sCdLL0/felix-gillette">Felix Gillette</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/AVqLhKvqFik/ashley-carman">Ashley Carman</a> put it. Hinchcliffe hosts his weekly "Kill Tony" show at the comedy club Rogan opened in Austin, and his show features a variety of comics Rogan and his fans love, as well as a cast of aspiring comics who are in Austin specifically because Rogan is there.All of this has helped Hinchcliffe become so big that this wasn't the first time this year he's told jokes at Madison Square Garden — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.msg.com/calendar/madison-square-garden-august-2024-kill-tony#about-the-event">he headlined two nights</a> at the famous arena in August.But back to you, the person who had never heard of Hinchcliffe until Sunday. Maybe you're one of many people <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/thestalwart/status/1850917580828971491?s=46&amp;t=xhuXMba3HM4poWm9CQq-PA">Googling him on Monday</a>.The main thing you need to know about Hinchcliffe is simply this: He's both very popular and under-the-radar. Which is something you can still say about Rogan himself: He has so much reach he can launch new stars like Hinchcliffe. But if you're not tuned to his frequency you might never hear or see him yourself.All of which is a feature, not a bug, for Donald Trump. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-targets-young-men-theo-von-logan-paul-adin-ross-2024-8">His campaign has made a big point of engaging with the Hinchcliffes and Rogans of the world — and the Adin Rosses and Theo Vons</a> — and hoping that their audiences — lots of young men who are hard to find via conventional media — will turn up for him in the election. We're a few days away from finding out if that worked.

Donald Trump is running in the Joe Rogan election

Joe Rogan endorsed former President Donald Trump hours ahead of Election Day in a Monday-evening podcast and social-media post. The influential podcaster cited the billionaire Elon Musk in his X post announcing the endorsement, saying the Tesla CEO made "the most compelling case for Trump." "The great and powerful @elonmusk. If it wasn't for him we'd be fucked," Rogan wrote. "For the record, yes, that's an endorsement of Trump," Rogan added. The endorsement accompanied a two-hour-and-40-minute podcast on which Musk appeared. The billionaire has poured millions of dollars into the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-donald-trump-support-reflects-business-approach-tesla-2024-10">effort to elect Trump</a>. Rogan's endorsement came after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-joe-rogan-interview-podcast-young-male-voters-2024-10">Trump appeared on "The Joe Rogan Experience"</a> last month, a major win for the Republican candidate, who had the chance to speak directly with Rogan's more than 14 million Spotify listeners. In less than two weeks, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-3-hours-late-to-own-rally-joe-rogan-interview-2024-10">the three-hour conversation</a> has racked up more than 45 million views on YouTube. Trump has been working hard to win over — and mobilize — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-targets-young-men-theo-von-logan-paul-adin-ross-2024-8">young male voters</a>, who comprise the bulk of Rogan's listening demographic. In 2022, Rogan said he wasn't a Trump supporter, adding that he'd turned down opportunities to have the former president on his show. "I don't want to help him. I'm not interested in helping him," Rogan said at the time. Rogan said he also tried to pursue an interview with Vice President Kamala Harris, but her campaign requested he travel to conduct the conversation. "I strongly feel the best way to do it is in the studio in Austin," he said on X. "My sincere wish is to just have a nice conversation and get to know her as a human being. I really hope we can make it happen." Correction: November 5, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated when Trump appeared on "<keyword id="23143121" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="The-Joe-Rogan-Experience" source="keywords">The Joe Rogan Experience</keyword>." It was last month, not earlier this month.

Joe Rogan endorsed Donald Trump, saying Elon Musk made a 'compelling case' for the former president

The vulnerable GOP congressman convinced that economic interest voters will save him from the Trump and abortion backlash

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hamas carried out a devastating attack on <keyword id="19900599" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="israel" source="keywords">Israel</keyword> one year ago, killing about 1,200 people.</li><li>The terror attack has helped push the Middle East to the brink of a wider regional war.</li></ul>On the early morning of October 7, 2023, air raid sirens began blaring in Israel, warning its citizens that an attack was in progress. Hamas, a militant group much of the West has designated a terrorist organization, launched a highly coordinated strike that the Israel Defense Forces would later say killed about 1,200 people. One year after the massacre, the Middle East has only plunged deeper into violence and is on the brink of a broader war. Paths to de-escalation, largely facilitated by the US, have repeatedly failed. And Israel appears to be inching closer to a direct conflict with Iran, a grim prospect that has been avoided for years as the two countries limited their fight to proxies in a shadow war. The results of the yearlong conflict, with origins that date back decades, have been costly for both Israel and the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance," noted Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security advisor who served for over 20 years in Israel's security establishment. "Israel has turned the tide and has the Axis of Resistance on the defensive. Hamas has been defeated militarily, though not politically, and remains in political control in Gaza," Freilich told Business Insider, adding that Iran had come to be in a vulnerable position. "Conversely, Israel was in the midst of a multi-front war which may result in significant damage to its homefront and is deeply isolated in the world," he added. <h2>A year of bloodshed</h2>Israel's response to Hamas' attack on October 7 was a massive bombardment campaign and later ground incursion in Gaza, which Palestinian authorities say have left about 42,000 people dead. Amid the early stages of that campaign, the first high-profile <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/yemen-navy-warship-missiles-intercepted-2f5fc9c8a3737f762b29d5c53ec08a5b">expansion of the greater conflict blew open in late October,</a> when Yemen's Houthi rebels <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-iran-idf-houthi-rebels-hijack-ship-red-sea-2023-11">began attacking commercial ships</a> seeking passage through the Suez Canal and the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis, historically backed and armed by Iran, said they were declaring a show of support for Hamas by attacking ships linked to Israel, though they were often found to have used drones, missiles, and raiding parties to harass vessels with no direct relation to it. <div type="image" title="Houthi supporters in Yemen brandish rifles and Yemeni and Palestinian flags in July." height="3840" width="5760" msid="114014767" hostid="261"></div>With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-are-houthis-yemen-rebels-attacking-ships-red-sea-2024-1">Houthi attacks</a> threatening to close off a vital international shipping lane, the US and its allies and partners established a heavy military presence in the Red Sea to fend off the rebels. January saw the West's most direct and overt military involvement in the conflict, when the US, UK, and their allies <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">barraged Houthi targets</a> with airborne, surface, and subsurface-launched strikes after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">warning the rebels repeatedly</a> to cease their attacks. The campaign has dragged on for almost a year with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-west-cant-stop-houthi-missile-attacks-on-ships-2024-1">no end in sight</a>, and the US has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-carrier-left-middle-east-ending-show-force-2024-9">rotating multiple aircraft carrier groups</a> into the region while carrying out further strikes on Houthi territory. To the north, Syria became the site of further conflict in April, when Israel launched a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/deadly-israeli-strike-syria-could-put-us-forces-crosshairs-iran-2024-4" target="_blank">strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus</a>, killing several senior officials of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals. Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, previously told BI that the strike was significant because it was the "first time Israel struck an official Iranian government-affiliated site with high-ranking people inside." <div type="image" title="Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad, and other officials check the site of Israeli attack on Iran consulate in Damascus in April," height="2080" width="3040" msid="114014764" hostid="261"></div>Iran followed up with a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-forces-destroyed-iran-missiles-drones-massive-air-defense-battle-2024-4">long-range attack on Israel at an unprecedented scale</a>, launching what Israeli authorities said were 170 attack drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles — almost all of which were intercepted. Israel then responded with its<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/explosion-heard-in-iran-according-to-state-media-2024-4"> own strikes on multiple cities in Iran</a>. And in July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">Ismail Haniyeh</a>, the political leader of Hamas, was killed just after he attended the swearing-in of Iran's new president. <keyword id="20394829" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="haniyeh" source="keywords">Haniyeh</keyword> was widely reported to have been killed by a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html?smid=tw-share">remotely detonated explosive device</a> that was planted months before his death in a guesthouse he was using in Tehran. Israel also claimed responsibility that week for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7" target="_blank">killing the Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr</a>, a senior advisor to the Lebanese militant organization's top leader, Hassan <keyword id="20081934" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nasrallah" source="keywords">Nasrallah</keyword>, via an air-launched strike in Beirut. <div type="image" title="A billboard in Beirut. depicts Ismail Haniyeh, Qasem Soleimani, and Fuad Shukr." height="3067" width="4600" msid="114014762" hostid="261"></div>Meanwhile, Hezbollah, a longtime enemy of Israel, has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-lebanon-israeli-positions-gaza-hamas-2023-10">exchanging fire</a> with Israel on its southern border since the October 7 attack, forcing hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides to flee. In one of the most dramatic attacks the region has yet seen, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-backed-hezbollah-members-hurt-after-pagers-just-weirdly-exploded-2024-9">thousands of pagers and communication devices</a> used by Hezbollah detonated in September, injuring more than 2,800 people and killing at least eight. Mossad, Israel's spy agency, is widely believed to have orchestrated the attack by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-pagers-had-dark-feature-made-them-more-gruesome-2024-10">planting explosives inside the devices</a> before they were distributed, but Israel has not claimed responsibility. <div type="image" title="This picture shows a fire that emerged after an Israeli bombardment in south Lebanon." height="1588" width="2408" msid="114014770" hostid="261"></div>Later in September, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9" target="_blank">Israel launched a strike</a> that killed Nasrallah at Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut, bringing an end to his 32-year leadership of the militant group. Then, at the start of this month Israel began what it called a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-launches-ground-offensive-into-lebanon-destroy-hezbollah-targets-2024-9" target="_blank">limited ground incursion into Lebanon</a>, saying it sought to dismantle Hezbollah's positions and artillery in the south. Iran moved soon after to launch a second major attack on Israel. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles, including its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10" target="_blank">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach 5. It's unclear whether Israel might expand its scope in Lebanon, where it faces difficult terrain and Hezbollah troops who have had years to embed and prepare. Lebanon's health ministry has said more than 2,000 people have been killed so far in the ensuing strikes and raids. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles at Israel on October 2, including its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach-5. <h2>Escalations don't bode well for the Middle East</h2>History shows there's little chance that Israel will let that attack pass without a response, as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin <keyword id="19934489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="netanyahu" source="keywords">Netanyahu</keyword> indicated in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUSI5tQuXys">a speech to the United Nations General Assembly</a> on September 27. "If you strike us, we will strike you. There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that's true of the entire Middle East," he said. Meanwhile, last month saw<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-fed-up-massive-protest-strike-demanding-gaza-deal-hostages-2024-9"> hundreds of thousands of Israeli protesters</a> rallying against Netanyahu's failure to secure some sort of cease-fire deal that could lead to the release of the hostages remaining in Gaza after the attack one year ago. Gili Roman, whose sister was kidnapped on October 7 and later released and whose relative Carmel Gat was among the six slain hostages recovered by the IDF in early September, told BI last month that Netanyahu and his government were "prioritizing themselves" over the hostages. The anticipation of yet another cycle of escalating retaliation has set the world on edge, amid fears that an all-out war between Iran and Israel will destabilize the entire region. Globally, the immediate concern is that oil supplies will diminish significantly should conflict spill over to the rest of the Middle East. Last week, Citigroup analysts estimated that a major strike on Iranian oil infrastructure could reduce global oil supplies by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-oct-3">1.5 million barrels per day.</a> <h2>Israel ignores US red lines</h2>US President <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword> has for a year been trying to avoid the war growing into a wider regional conflict that could pull in the US and other world powers. He has repeatedly sought to broker a cease-fire in Gaza, organize more humanitarian support for civilians, and limit Israel's campaign. But Netanyahu has repeatedly ignored Biden's red lines and has continued to push forward against Hamas even as the civilian death toll spiraled and international opposition to Israel's campaign mounted. The US has also helped shield Israel against Iranian missile attacks sparked by the April killings and recent attacks on Hezbollah, and has positioned troops in the area to deter further Iranian aggression, while also seeking to tamp down the conflict. Meanwhile, as Israel intensified its attacks against Hezbollah two weeks ago, the US announced that it had brokered a possible cease-fire agreement — only for Israel to assassinate Nasrallah one day later. Critics of US policy believe that Netanyahu is acting in his own self-interest to try to hold together his fragile coalition government, whose far-right members support intensifying the war against Iran and its allies. "Netanyahu doesn't care about his friendship with Biden, or even about Israel's dependence on the United States. He cares only about his near-term political interests. Everyone but Biden can see this," wrote Andrew Exum, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/10/israel-war-biden-iran/680155/">in The Atlantic</a> last week. <h2>The global economy on edge</h2>When the conflict began a year ago, there were fears that wider conflict in the Middle East could impact the global economy. Oil prices did rise in the days after the October 7 attacks and Brent crude peaked above $92 a barrel later that month, but then started declining to about $73 in mid-December. In contrast, oil hit about $130 a barrel after <keyword id="19900702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vladimir-putin" source="keywords">Vladimir Putin</keyword> invaded Ukraine in February 2022. However, experts recently told Business Insider that a wider war in the region could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-economy-israel-iran-war-oil-growth-inflation-hurricane-china-2024-10">choke global economic growth and reignite inflation</a>. The Bank of Israel estimated in May that the costs arising from the war would total about $66 billion through the end of next year — equivalent to roughly 12% of Israel's GDP, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/year-war-creates-cracks-israels-borrowing-strength-2024-10-06/">according to Reuters</a>. And in June, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/05/scars-of-conflict-are-deeper-and-longer-lasting-in-middle-east-and-central-asia">the IMF noted</a> that the long-term economic effects of severe conflict on real GDP per capita in the Middle East were particularly pronounced, compared to other regions. It said that countries in the Middle East can expect to experience a roughly 10% decline in real GDP per capita a decade after the onset of a conflict, compared to pre-conflict levels. Correction: October 7, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated when Israel launched its strike that killed Hassan Nasrallah. That attack took place before Israel's ground incursion into Lebanon, not after, and the subsequent Iranian missile strike came soon after the Israeli ground assault, not hours after Nasrallah's killing. The story also misspelled the name of the former deputy national security advisor in Israel. He is Chuck Freilich, not Chuck Frielich.

One year on, the Middle East is spiraling deeper into violence

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Vice President <keyword id="20307089" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kamala-Harris" source="keywords">Kamala Harris</keyword> looks set to secure the Democratic presidential nomination.</li><li>Her campaign has gained momentum with high-profile endorsements and donations from tech leaders.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-tech-issues-ai-big-tech-crypto-silicon-valley-2024-7">Vice President Kamala Harris</a> is shaking up the 2024 election. Harris looks set to secure the Democratic presidential nomination amid a burst of popularity following <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race</a>. The <keyword id="15548" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-President" source="Orion">US President</keyword> endorsed his current vice president, and many prominent Democrats, <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-link--focus-visible" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/barack-obama-endorses-kamala-harris-for-president-after-a-delay-2024-7">including Barack Obama</a>, have followed his lead. Money has been pouring into Harris's campaign, and the vice president has already <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHky_Xopyrw">begun campaigning against</a> former president <keyword id="19918985" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Donald-Trump" source="keywords">Donald Trump</keyword>. While several <keyword id="19915272" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Silicon-Valley" source="keywords">Silicon Valley</keyword> veterans, including former Meta exec Sheryl Sandberg, have voiced their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-business-leaders-billionaires-backing-kamala-harris-president-2024-7">support for Harris</a>, others have spent the last few months throwing considerable weight behind Trump and his running mate <keyword id="22168234" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="JD-Vance" source="keywords">JD Vance</keyword>. Also read: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/world/news/these-6-house-democrats-voted-for-gop-resolution-condemning-kamala-harriss-failure-to-secure-the-border/articleshow/112023285.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">These 6 House Democrats voted for GOP resolution condemning Kamala Harris's 'failure to secure' the border</a> David Sacks, an old PayPal colleague of <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-jd-vance-veep-trump-election-kingmaker-2024-7">Peter Thiel</a>, donated $1 million to a pro-Vance Super PAC, while Thiel gave $15 million to his campaign, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/03/jd-vance-win-ohio-primary-00029881">Politico</a> reported. Tesla CEO <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk">Elon Musk</a> has also been enthusiastic about Vance, reportedly participating in a secret lobbying campaign for the former VC. The billionaire <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-campaign-says-musk-trying-to-control-country-with-money-2024-7">officially endorsed Trump for President after </a>an assassination attempt against him in July. With Vance by his side, Trump has been trying to woo Silicon Valley away from Biden. But with Harris at the helm, it's a whole new race. "Momentum has certainly shifted in the tech industry, and many —including myself — are now optimistic that Harris can take the reins and drive the Democratic party into the future," Aaron Levie, CEO of Box cloud company, told Business Insider. <h2>A California candidate</h2>In Harris, techies have a candidate from their home turf. Born in Oakland, Harris has served as a California senator and as the state's attorney general. She has roots and high-profile friends in the Bay Area. She reportedly attended the 2013 wedding of former Facebook president and investor <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sean-parker-life-career-napster-facebook-billionaire-pictures-2020-3">Sean Parker,</a> and her brother-in-law,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-west-life-career-uber-maya-harris-kamala-harris-2020-11"> Tony West</a>, is Uber's chief legal officer. Many in the Valley view Harris as a much-needed breath of fresh air. "I have known Kamala for decades, and she's been a fighter, a leader, and an advocate for the tech ecosystem," Silicon Valley "super angel" investor Ron Conway <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/RonConway/status/1815466335612399778">said </a>in an X post calling on the tech community rally around Harris. Chiente Hsu, cofounder and CEO of bitcoin platform ALEX, told BI that Harris is "generally viewed more favorably among tech leaders" than Biden. She cited Harris' closer ties to the tech community and favorable stance toward innovation for the renewed enthusiasm. Harris has also shown a willingness to take on Big Tech when needed. During her time as attorney general, she tackled issues such as the distribution of explicit content on social media platforms, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/02/01/kamala-harris-porn-california-attorney-general-facebook-twitter-silicon-valley-224534/">with a particular focus on "revenge porn."</a> During the Biden Administration, Harris played an active role in AI regulation. She's <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/11/01/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-on-the-future-of-artificial-intelligence-london-united-kingdom/">previously stated</a> she rejects the "false choice that suggests we can either protect the public, or advance innovation." "Her work on tech-related legal issues and proactive stance on innovation further bolster her reputation," Hsu said. "Harris has been vocal about the need for ethical AI development and robust oversight of Big Tech, reflecting a nuanced approach to tech regulation." <h2>A lucrative opportunity</h2>Several business elites have already expressed their support for Harris. Some, like Netflix's cofounder Reed Hastings, have been putting their money where their mouth is with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reed-hastings-all-in-on-kamala-harris-7-million-donation-2024-7">hefty donations.</a> If Harris does win over tech executives, it could mean significant financial contributions and strategic support. Levie said Harris represented a "unique opportunity" for the Democratic Party to position itself as pro-tech, pro-AI, and pro-science. "Biden stepping down and the party aligning around Harris has reenergized the community, and many who were previously neutral are now excited about the direction Harris can drive," he said. Harris's stance on some tech issues is still a bit uncertain. Notably, the vice president hasn't taken a strong stance on cryptocurrency, but some expect her to become more pro-crypto than Biden. The Biden administration has been increasing its scrutiny of the sector following the collapse of FTX in 2022. Meanwhile, with support from pro-crypto running mate JD Vance, Trump has announced he plans to be the first <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/trump-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-election-outlook-crypto-funding-regulation-biden-novogratz-2024-7#:~:text=Donald%20Trump%20was%20not%20always,Trump%20trade%2C%22%20Bernstein%20said.">"crypto president."</a> Nigel Green, CEO of financial services company deVere Group, previously told BI that Harris's views "reflect a cautious approach" to the sector. However, he said he expected Harris to become more pro-crypto to compete effectively with Donald Trump. "This regulatory clarity could bring greater legitimacy to the industry, potentially attracting more institutional investors and mainstream adoption," he added.

Kamala Harris has a golden opportunity to pull Silicon Valley away from Trump and Vance

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Time has officially run out for House Republicans to impeach Biden before the election.</li><li>Lawmakers took their last votes of the week on Wednesday and won't return until mid-November.</li></ul>After nearly two years, the Republican effort to impeach President Joe Biden can be declared dead.Lawmakers took their last votes of the week on Wednesday afternoon and are not scheduled to return to session until November 12, the week after the 2024 election.While it's technically possible Republicans would attempt to impeach Biden in the final months of his presidency, it's highly unlikely. By that point, either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will be president-elect, and the bulk of Washington's attention will be on preparing for the new administration. Plus, Biden's decision to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-what-happens-next-2024-7">drop out of the race</a> had already rendered the president a lame duck."I think it's too late," said Republican Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee, a member of the House Oversight Committee that led the impeachment inquiry. "I think he's impeached himself."The impeachment effort, based on the notion that Biden financially benefited from his son Hunter's business dealings, had long <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-biden-impeachment-effort-is-dying-a-slow-painful-death-2024-9">petered out</a> before this month.While Republicans were able to maintain unanimity in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/every-house-republican-votes-for-biden-impeachment-inquiry-ken-buck-2023-12">voting to authorize an impeachment inquiry</a> last December, they never appeared to have the necessary votes to impeach Biden. Along the way, key aspects of the investigation were discredited, including when a former FBI informant whose testimony had been widely cited was charged in February with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/house-republicans-biden-impeachment-fbi-indictment-hunter-bribes-2024-2">lying to the agency</a>.In August, a trio of House committees released a nearly 300-page report on the inquiry. It ultimately garnered little attention, with House Speaker Mike Johnson issuing a statement that simply encouraged "all Americans to read this report."Despite that, it seemed possible that Republicans may be forced to vote on impeachment before the election. Last year, Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado tried to use a procedural maneuver to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lauren-boebert-al-green-donald-trump-impeachment-biden-2023-6">force an impeachment vote</a> over Biden's handling of the southern border, and it didn't seem out of the question for another hard-right lawmaker to pull such a move.Republicans have been trying to impeach Biden — for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cory-mills-vote-israel-aid-impeach-biden-rafah-2024-5">various reasons</a> — since the first year of his administration, and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-are-over-biden-impeachment-independents-poll-result-2023-12">vast majority of GOP voters</a> supported the inquiry. But Republicans are headed into November without having gotten it done."I think it's disappointing. I'm disappointed," said Rep. Eric Burlison of Missouri, another GOP member of the Oversight Committee. "Sadly, our side of the aisle seems to pull our punches."What remains unclear, however, is whether Republicans will face any backlash from their base in the long term for the lack of an impeachment. After all, Biden's about to be out of the picture, and Trump could win the election in November."I think Republican voters want to make sure that we get Trump in office," said Rep. Michael Cloud, a Republican from Texas. "That's their focus at the moment."

Republicans officially miss their chance to impeach Biden before the election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>President Joe Biden is dropping out of the 2024 presidential race.</li><li>The president's disastrous <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-biden-trump-debate-takeaways-2024-6">debate performance</a> in late June sent shockwaves through the party.</li></ul>In a stunning turnaround, President Joe Biden on Sunday announced he would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-what-happens-next-2024-7">withdraw his candidacy for reelection</a> in 2024."While it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term," Biden wrote in a letter posted on social media. "I will speak to the Nation later this week in more detail about my decision."Biden on Sunday also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-endorses-kamala-harris-after-dropping-out-2024-7">endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris</a> to succeed him in the Oval Office.The president's decision to forgo his reelection came weeks after his disastrous debate performance against former President Donald Trump in late June.Biden struggled to deliver coherent answers to numerous questions, reigniting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-age-2020-election-voters-too-old-presidency-trump-2024-3">concerns about his age</a> that had been simmering among Democrats for months. In the days following the debate, Biden faced growing pressure to step aside, with an increasing number of Democratic politicians urging the 81-year-old president to do so.The White House looked to have stymied a massive outcry from members of Congress, but as lawmakers returned to Washington, more seemed unwilling to accept Biden's decision to stay in the race.Earlier this month, former House Speaker <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pelosi-biden-presidential-race-democrats-debate-2024-7">Nancy Pelosi</a> said it was "up to the president to decide if he is going to run," which was odd as Biden had already declared he wasn't going anywhere and had committed to staying in the race.Polling had long shown Biden trailing Trump both nationally and in key swing states, and the debate represented a key opportunity for the president to turn the race around. Instead, some national polls showed that the former president cemented his lead. Election prognosticators also moved Minnesota and New Hampshire closer to Trump with the possibility that even a state like New Mexico could become competitive.On Thursday, Biden's top campaign officials conceded that the president had taken a small step back since the debate but emphasized that Trump was still beatable."There is a long way to go between now and Election Day with considerable uncertainty and polls in July should not be overestimated, but the data shows we have a clear path to win," Biden's campaign chair, Jen O'Malley Dillon, and campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in a memo to staffers.It's the first time in recent American history that a major party has had to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-if-biden-ends-his-reelection-bid-1968-dnc-2024-2">finalize a nominee</a> so close to a general election.President Lyndon B. Johnson dropped out of the 1968 race amid widespread protests over his handling of the Vietnam War, though he did so in the midst of the primary season, giving Democrats plenty of time to rally around another candidate.Vice President Hubert Humphrey ultimately claimed that year's Democratic nomination amid a chaotic convention in Chicago, only to lose to Richard Nixon.

Joe Biden is dropping out of the presidential race

Can Kamala Harris win over Democrats after Joe Biden drops out of 2024 presidential election?

Former president Donald Trump has said Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> will meet him next week during his upcoming three-day visit to the US. While the Republican presidential candidate slammed India as an "abuser" on the issue of import tariffs, he described Modi as a "fantastic man". PM Modi will be visiting the US from September 21 to 23. Speaking on Tuesday at his first public appearance following the recent apparent assassination attempt, Trump said Modi will meet him next week when he is in the US. "So when India, which is a very big abuser. He (Modi) happens to be coming to meet me next week, and Modi, he's fantastic. I mean, fantastic man. A lot of these leaders are fantastic," Trump said, reiterating that India imposes heavy tariffs on imports. The former president revealed the information as he spoke about trade and tariffs while responding to a question at a town hall meeting in Flint, Michigan. He went on to say, "These people are the sharpest people. They're not a little bit backwards...You know the expression, they're at the top of their game, and they use it against us. But India is very tough. Brazil is very tough....China is the toughest of all, but we were taking care of China with the tariffs." "So we're going to do a reciprocal trade. If anybody charges us 10 cents, if they charge us USD 2, if they charge us a hundred per cent, 250, we charge them the same thing. And what's going to happen? Everything's going to disappear, and we're going to end up having free trade again. And if it doesn't disappear, we're going to take in a lot of money," he said. Modi will begin his trip with the <keyword id="23214075" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Quad-Leaders-Summit" source="keywords">Quad Leaders' Summit</keyword> being hosted by President Joe Biden in Wilmington, Delaware. The summit will be attended by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan. Modi will then travel to New York and address a mega community event in Long Island on September 22. He will address world leaders at the landmark Summit of the Future event at the UN headquarters the next day. Modi's visit comes less than two months before the US heads into presidential elections with Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the top job. The US general elections will take place on November 5.

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