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Revenues of organised <keyword id="21758362" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-jewellery-retailers" source="keywords">gold jewellery retailers</keyword> are expected to surge by 22-25% this fiscal year, driven by the sharp reduction in import duties on <keyword id="18712" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold" source="Orion">gold</keyword> in the July Budget, according to a <keyword id="20874793" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CRISIL-report" source="keywords">CRISIL report</keyword>. A recent analysis by CRISIL Ratings, which examined 58 gold jewellery retailers representing a third of the <keyword id="21165181" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="organised-sector" source="keywords">organised sector</keyword>'s revenues, indicates that the sector will benefit from improved <keyword id="19900859" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="working-capital" source="keywords">working capital</keyword> management. Although many retailers plan significant store expansions--estimated at 12-14% of existing stores--lower gold prices will reduce inventory costs, providing working capital relief. The organised jewellery sector, which accounts for just over a third of the overall market, is poised for a stronger financial performance compared to its unorganised counterpart. The steep reduction in <keyword id="20069572" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="import-duty" source="keywords">import duty</keyword> has come at a crucial time for the industry, as retailers prepare for the festive and marriage seasons. Following the price decline, volumes are expected to grow by 3-5% this fiscal year, reversing earlier projections of stagnant demand. Gold prices had been steadily rising since February 2024, which had subdued consumer demand and led to revenue growth driven solely by higher realisations rather than increased sales volumes. Himank Sharma, Director at CRISIL Ratings, highlighted the timely impact of the duty cut and said, "The duty cuts to their decadal lows have come at an opportune time for the gold jewellery retailers as they start stocking for the festive and marriage seasons from the latter half of August." He added, "However, the inventory losses on the existing stock due to the price cuts will be partially mitigated by the reduced spends on marketing and discounts, as demand revives. All said <keyword id="19957745" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="profitability" source="keywords">profitability</keyword> will see a marginal dip on-year to 7.1-7.2%." Despite the pressure on profitability, retailers' cash flows will improve due to higher revenues, enabling them to pursue expansion plans. Store expansions, expected to increase by 12-14%, will require higher inventory levels. However, the lower input costs resulting from reduced gold prices will balance out the additional working capital requirements. Gaurav Arora, Associate Director at CRISIL Ratings, added, "Gold jewellery retailers will maintain comfortable financial metrics this fiscal, with total outside liabilities to tangible net worth (TOL/TNW) and interest coverage ratios remaining around 1.0 and 9 times, respectively. These will be moderately better than our earlier expectations, keeping credit profiles stable." As the festive season approaches, gold prices remain around 17% higher than last year's average, which is expected to sustain demand and further drive revenues in the second half of the fiscal year. However, potential volatility in gold prices, changes in government regulations, and shifts in consumer sentiment will need to be closely monitored. The combination of reduced prices, increased demand, and improved working capital management is expected to keep the financial outlook for gold jewellery retailers positive, despite the slight dip in profitability. The reduced duty has caused retail gold prices to fall by Rs 4,500-5,000 per 10 grams, leading to increased demand for gold jewellery. The growth projection, 500-600 basis points higher than earlier estimates of 17-19%, is fuelled by higher volumes as more consumers are enticed by the lower prices.

Budget import duty cut will boost gold jewellery retailers' revenues by 22-25% this fiscal, notes CRISIL report

Domestic <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">gold prices</keyword> have risen by 10% on a year-to-date basis on the back of the strength in global gold prices, which have surged by 18% year-to-date, driven by robust <keyword id="19894998" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-bank" source="keywords">central bank</keyword> purchases, heightened geopolitical risks, and growing expectations of a monetary policy pivot from the <keyword id="19901377" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-federal-reserve" source="keywords">US Federal Reserve</keyword>, according to the <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Gold-Council" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Gold Council" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="World Gold Council">World Gold Council</keyword>. The reduction in <keyword id="20069572" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="import-duty" source="keywords">import duty</keyword> has ignited a resurgence in gold demand across <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. Reports from the recently concluded India International Jewellery Show indicate a substantial increase in order bookings from retailers, particularly in preparation for the upcoming festive and wedding season. Manufacturers have noted that in some cases, orders have reached levels not seen in several years, underscoring the strong buying interest among <keyword id="21595593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jewellery-retailers" source="keywords">jewellery retailers</keyword> and consumers alike. The trend of bar and coin buying has also remained robust, with both consumers and jewellers capitalizing on the more attractive prices to stock up for future manufacturing needs. Historical analysis suggests that Indian consumer demand, encompassing jewellery and bar and coin demand, could see an additional 50 tonnes or more in the second half of 2024. This potential increase is fueled by a combination of an initial boost in consumer appetite due to the more attractive prices and a longer-term alignment of local prices with international rates. In a notable shift, domestic gold prices, which had been trading at a discount to international prices for five consecutive months, have now started trading at a premium following the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> announcement. The discount had widened significantly in July, reaching a peak of around $80 per ounce in the third week of the month, driven by subdued demand and an increased supply of gold through various preferential trade agreements and unofficial channels. However, wholesalers who had inventory purchased under the old customs duty regime began selling gold at a premium to the landed cost to mitigate their losses, further supported by increased consumer demand. While the premiums have moderated recently, from $28 per ounce to around USD 5 per ounce, this shift highlights the changing market sentiment and the impact of rising international gold prices and potential inventory valuation adjustments. The changes introduced in the Union Budget, including a reduction in the long-term investment holding period and a lower tax rate, have made gold ETFs a more attractive investment option. Data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) reveals that net inflows into gold ETFs in July amounted to Rs 13.4 billion (approximately USD 160 million), marking the highest monthly inflows since February 2020 and an 84% increase compared to June 2024. Despite these inflows, the total assets under management (AUM) for Indian gold ETFs grew marginally by 0.3% from the previous month, reaching Rs 345 billion ($4.1 billion). This modest increase can be attributed to the 8 % fall in domestic gold prices following the import duty reduction. Year-to-date, net inflows into Indian gold ETFs have totalled Rs 45 billion ($543 million), with total AUMs rising by 48 % from a year ago. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has continued its gold purchasing trend, although at a slower pace following a significant increase in June, when purchases reached 9.3 tonnes--the highest monthly total in nearly two years. Year-to-date, the RBI's gold acquisitions have totaled 44.3 tonnes, surpassing the total purchases of the past two years combined. The RBI's gold reserves have now reached a record 849 tonnes, representing 8.8% of total foreign reserves, compared to 7.5 % a year ago. In July, gold imports remained steady at $3.1 billion, maintaining the stable trend observed over the previous three months. Between April and July, imports averaged $3.2 billion, with volumes ranging between 43 and 47 tonnes during this period. The gold import bill for July 2024 was 11 % lower than the previous year, with an estimated 26% decrease in volume terms, around 47 tonnes. Despite a surge in international gold prices, domestic gold prices in India have experienced a notable decline, primarily due to the 9 % reduction in import duty announced in the Union Budget 2024-25. This policy change has led to a 6% decrease in the landed cost of gold, marking a shift in the domestic gold market dynamics.

Domestic gold prices surge 10% amid global price rally, central bank buying: World Gold Council

The overall <keyword id="20150666" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gem" source="keywords">gem</keyword> and <keyword id="20243747" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jewellery-exports" source="keywords">jewellery exports</keyword> witnessed a 21.93 per cent year-on-year <keyword id="19959767" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="decline" source="keywords">decline</keyword> in July to $1.67 billion (Rs 13,922.03 crore) on account of dampening of consumer demand following global unrest, Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (<keyword id="19995719" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GJEPC" source="keywords">GJEPC</keyword>) has said. According to data released by GJEPC -- the apex body for the gems and jewellery industry in India -- the overall <keyword id="19916774" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports" source="keywords">exports</keyword> in the category in July 2023 stood at Rs $ 2,170.71 million. "The exports are mainly affected due to decline in demand following geopolitical disturbance in key markets like the US and China. The demand in the China market has drastically slowed down due to a struggling economy," GJEPC Chairman Vipul Shah told PTI. The overall export of cut and polished diamonds (CPD) declined 21.34 per cent in July to $907.67 million from $1.17 billion in the year-ago period. Gold jewellery exports also witnessed a 10.53 per cent decline in July to $530.38 million compared to $603.12 million in the same period of last year. Meanwhile, the apex trade body said during the recent six-day India International Jewellery Show (IIJS) Premiere 2024, held from August 9-13, business worth about $12 billion (approximately Rs 1 lakh crore) was generated. IIJS Premiere 2024 attracted over 50,000 buyers and international delegations from over 13 countries, including Cambodia, Iran, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, and Uzbekistan. "IIJS Premiere 2024 was a tremendous success, generating over $12 billion in business for our exhibitors. The business was mainly dominated by gold jewellery following weakness in prices of the yellow metal," Shah said. The show featured an array of products that highlighted the brilliance in designs and clearly reflected the shift towards catering to millennials and Gen Z, he said. "IIJS Premiere 2024 played a crucial role in boosting exports and expanding our global footprint. The presence of these international participants underscores the importance of IIJS as a premier platform for connecting with global markets and enhancing trade opportunities," he added. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/reliance-jio-and-airtel-gained-over-3-million-subscribers-in-june-vi-lost-nearly-a-million/articleshow/112670406.cms">Reliance Jio and Airtel gained over 3 million subscribers in June, Vi lost nearly a million</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/the-iphone-pro-models-will-be-made-in-india-for-the-first-time-this-year/articleshow/112653019.cms">The iPhone Pro models will be made in India for the first time this year</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/orient-technologies-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/112646237.cms">Orient Technologies IPO – Price band to risk factors, all you need to know</a>

Gem, jewellery exports drop 21.9% to $1.67 billion in July

Global <keyword id="19978688" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-demand" source="keywords">gold demand</keyword> in Q2 2024, excluding over-the-counter (OTC) transactions declined by 6% year-on-year to 929 tonnes, primarily due to a sharp fall in jewelry consumption, according to the latest report of the <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Gold-Council" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Gold Council" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="World Gold Council">World Gold Council</keyword>. However, when including <keyword id="22654356" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="OTC-investment" source="keywords">OTC investment</keyword>, total gold demand increased by 4% YoY to 1,258 tonnes, marking the highest Q2 figure since data collection began in 2000. The record-high <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">gold prices</keyword> took a significant toll on jewelry consumption. Volumes fell 19% YoY to 391 tonnes, the lowest in four years. The report reveals a mixed picture for the Indian market in the second quarter of 2024. While overall gold demand showed a modest increase due to investment in OTC markets and central bank purchases, India witnessed trends that reflect broader market shifts. This decline reflects the impact of elevated gold prices on consumer purchasing behaviour, particularly in markets sensitive to price fluctuations, including India. <keyword id="19946830" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-banks" source="keywords">Central banks</keyword> continued to be significant players in the gold market, with net gold buying increasing by 6% YoY to 184 tonnes. This rise is attributed to the need for portfolio protection and diversification in a volatile economic environment. In June alone, central banks reported net purchases of 12 tonnes, with key contributors including the Central Bank of Uzbekistan and the Reserve Bank of India, both adding 9 tonnes to their reserves. The Monetary Authority of Singapore was noted as the largest seller, offloading 12 tonnes in the same month. The LBMA (PM) gold price averaged a record $ 2,338 per ounce in Q2 2024, up 18% YoY and 13% QoQ. Gold prices peaked at a new high of $2,427 per ounce in May. This environment drove significant investment and production trends, with total gold supply growing by 4% YoY to 1,258 tonnes. Mine production reached a record 929 tonnes for a second quarter, while recycling supply was the highest since 2012, reflecting the response to rising prices. OTC investment was a major component of the Q2 total gold demand, amounting to 329 tonnes. This, along with continued central bank buying, contributed to pushing gold prices to record highs during the quarter. Despite a minor 7-tonne decline in global gold <keyword id="19930506" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="etf" source="keywords">ETF</keyword> holdings in Q2, this was an improvement compared to the 21-tonne drop in Q2 2023. The decline in ETF holdings was followed by early outflows and nascent inflows later in the quarter. Retail bar and coin investment experienced a 5% decline to 261 tonnes, mainly due to weakened demand from Western markets. Conversely, gold used in technology saw an 11% YoY increase, driven by the continued growth in <keyword id="19904566" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="artificial-intelligence" source="keywords">artificial intelligence</keyword> (AI) applications. <keyword id="21088407" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment-trends" source="keywords">Investment trends</keyword> continued to diverge regionally. Eastern markets exhibited robust demand for bars, coins, and ETFs, while Western markets saw marked declines. However, Western ETF investment flows have shown signs of recovery in early Q3 2024. Looking ahead to the full year of 2024, it is expected that revived Western investment flows will help balance out weaker consumer demand, and potentially slower central bank buying, compared to 2023.

Global gold demand drops 6% in Q2 2024 due to slump in jewelry consumption, OTC investment pushes the total to record high

<keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">Gold prices</keyword> have corrected sharply by 7% or Rs 5,000 per 10 grams in the local markets after the government slashed the basic customs duty on gold. Lower costs will encourage more people to invest in the yellow metal, both as a commodity and as a financial asset, experts say. Analysts said customs duty cut has made gold imports cheaper. The move will help curb the rampant issue of gold smuggling, leading to growth in the organised <keyword id="22107284" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jewellery-sector" source="keywords">jewellery sector</keyword>. "The cut in basic <keyword id="20330317" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="custom-duty" source="keywords">custom duty</keyword> on gold prices makes the yellow metal cheaper. While this can lead to weaker market sentiments due to the sudden change, <keyword id="19972907" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-investors" source="keywords">retail investors</keyword> stand to benefit from the new, more attractive pricing for gold," said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst of Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities Echoing similar sentiments, Krishnan R, Director &amp; CEO of Unimoni Financial Services said lower costs will encourage more people to invest in gold, both as a commodity and as a financial asset, which is often seen as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Following the <keyword id="19936553" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="budget" source="keywords">budget</keyword> announcement by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman that the government has slashed basic customs duties on gold and silver from 15 per cent to 6 per cent, gold prices crashed by Rs 3,350 to Rs 72,300 per 10 grams in the national capital on Tuesday. The precious metal prices continued the downtrend and plunged by Rs 650 on Wednesday. The yellow metal rates saw another steep fall on Thursday, nosediving by Rs 1,000 to settle at Rs 70,650 per 10 grams, as per the All India Sarafa Association. After the duty cut, the yellow metal has declined Rs 5,000 per 10 grams or 7.1% in the past three sessions, since July 23 when it had fallen Rs 3,350 to end at Rs 72,300 per kg. Also, gold of 99.5% purity declined by Rs 1,000 to Rs 70,300 per 10 grams on Thursday. It had also lost ground by Rs 5,000 per 10 grams in the previous three sessions. On Thursday, silver rates also lost ground by Rs 3,500 per kg to Rs 84,000 per kg. In the past three sessions, the rates of the bright metal fell sharply by Rs 7,000 or 8.3% to Rs 84,000 per kg from Rs 91,000 per kg. Traders also said that a sharp correction in gold prices have revived the demand for jewellery among consumers as they flocked to jewellery outlets to take advantage of lower prices. "The reduction in basic custom duties have spurted the demand for jewellery in the domestic markets. Further, this will act as a sales booster for jewellers before the festive seasons, encouraging fresh buying by the consumers due to lower prices," PC Jeweller's Managing Director Balram Garg. Low gold prices will help domestic jewellers, particularly the organised ones, Garg said. According to MP Ahammed, Chairman, Malabar Group, the reduction has been a long-standing demand of traders in the gold sector, as it is expected to curb the rampant issue of gold smuggling, which poses a substantial threat to the Indian economy. "With the new rates, the duty on one kilogram of gold drops from Rs 9.82 lakh to Rs 3.93 lakh, making smuggling less attractive and more manageable. "This move will help dismantle the mafia chain involved in smuggling, leading to growth in the organised jewellery sector and increasing government revenue through GST and income tax," Ahammed said. Meanwhile, in futures trade on the <keyword id="20316358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="multi-commodity-exchange" source="keywords">Multi Commodity Exchange</keyword> (MCX), gold futures have partially recovered on Friday, after three days of slump. The most traded August contract jumped Rs 288 to Rs 67,750 per 10 grams on the MCX. It had settled at Rs 67,462 per 10 grams in the previous session on Thursday. However, silver contracts for September delivery continued its downward trend by declining Rs 241 to Rs 81,090 per kg. It had closed at Rs 81,331 per kg in the previous session on Thursday. Experts anticipate stability in bullion prices once there is clarity on several economic and political factors such as interest rate cut by the <keyword id="19901377" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-federal-reserve" source="keywords">US Federal Reserve</keyword>. "Stability in gold prices is expected once there is clarity on several economic and political factors including, potential interest rate cuts in the US and India, and the outcome of the US Presidential elections will provide a clear direction for gold prices," Trivedi said.

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Budget import duty cut will boost gold jewellery retailers' revenues by 22-25% this fiscal, notes CRISIL report

ANI

Domestic gold prices surge 10% amid global price rally, central bank buying: World Gold Council

ANI

Gem, jewellery exports drop 21.9% to $1.67 billion in July

PTI

Global gold demand drops 6% in Q2 2024 due to slump in jewelry consumption, OTC investment pushes the total to record high

ANI

Gold prices drop by Rs 5,000/10gm post Budget; bring cheers to retail investors

PTI

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