<ul class="summary-list"><li>The deployment of the US Army's 1st <keyword id="9313148" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="security-force-assistance-brigade">Security Force Assistance Brigade</keyword> was touted by both the US and <keyword id="15385" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Colombia">Colombia</keyword> as a milestone and a sign of strong bilateral relations.</li><li>But the otherwise normal deployment sparked political backlash in Colombia, and in the months since, the Army has been less vocal about the new unit's whereabouts.</li></ul><p>The US and Colombia <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-army-security-force-assistance-brigades-deploying-to-colombia-2020-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">touted the deployment</a> of the Army's new advisor unit in June but have been much quieter after the otherwise normal mission sparked political backlash in Colombia.</p><p>The 1st Security Force Assistance Brigade's rotation <a href="https://www.army.mil/article/236306/sfab_unit_ready_for_first_mission_in_south_america" target="_blank" rel="noopener">was its first</a> in Latin America and "reaffirm[ed]" US commitment to Colombia, the US's "best ally and friend in the region," the US Embassy there <a href="https://co.usembassy.gov/sfab-mission-arrives-in-colombia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> in late May.</p><p>But the fanfare that greeted the roughly 50 soldiers, who joined Colombian troops after a two-week quarantine, concerned Colombian lawmakers.</p><p>"Usually these trainers, they come to Colombia and leave Colombia. It shouldn't be a big deal, but procedurally, it's expected that the executive ask for consent from the Congress," said Sergio Guzmán, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, a political risk consulting firm in Bogotá.</p><p>"Because the government made a huge deal ... members of the Senate were like, 'Huh? Were we consulted for this?'" Guzmán told Insider. "They checked the paperwork — no, they hadn't been."</p><div type="image" title="Donald Trump Ivan Duque Colombia UN General Assembly" height="1011" width="1400" msid="78921473" hostid="261"></div><p>For Presidents <keyword id="6565099" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="ivan-duque">Ivan Duque</keyword> and Donald Trump the deployment was a chance to highlight their countries' ties and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-army-security-force-assistance-brigades-deploying-to-colombia-2020-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">send a message to Venezuela</a>, a mutual foe. It was also a military milestone for the US, which sees SFABs as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/army-training-brigade-prepares-for-new-worldwide-deployments-2019-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a way</a> to build relationships around the world.</p><p>In early July, however, a Colombian judge <a href="https://www.webinfomil.com/2020/07/tribunal-ordeno-suspender-las.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ordered</a> the US trainers to halt their operations in response to a complaint from opposition senators.</p><p>"Their pretext was the Constitution says that the Senate has to approve any transit of foreign troops," said Adam Isacson, director for defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America, a research and advocacy group.</p><p>"The result was this big back and forth, in the courts and elsewhere, between the Defense Ministry and the opposition about whether this was a 'transit of troops' or whether it was ... this non-operational presence of trainers that is covered by agreements going back in 1974," Isacson told Insider.</p><p>In late August, Colombian Defense Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo said advisors <a href="https://www.eltiempo.com/justicia/conflicto-y-narcotrafico/desde-el-20-de-julio-se-reanudaron-las-actividades-de-militares-de-ee-uu-en-colombia-533918" target="_blank" rel="noopener">resumed work</a> on July 20, after the government complied with the court's requests.</p><p>Col. Kimeisha McCullum, director of public affairs for US Army South, told Insider on Wednesday that training and exchanges "were halted until Colombian government gave ... the green light to continue."</p><p>But senators <a href="https://www.eltiempo.com/politica/congreso/congreso-dice-que-no-hay-autorizacion-para-militares-en-ee-uu-en-colombia-535123" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disputed</a> Trujillo's claim that they gave authorization and moved to hold a no-confidence vote for the minister this month. The Senate's president <a href="https://colombiareports.com/colombias-senate-chief-denies-opposition-right-to-file-motion-of-no-confidence/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">blocked that vote</a>, a move decried by the opposition.</p><p>"If the government had the votes to overcome this vote of no confidence, they should have just gone ahead with it. But instead, they decided to upend the whole congressional order to dismiss this motion," Guzmán said.</p><h2>Internal dynamics</h2><div type="image" title="Army Security Force Assistance brigade" height="1365" width="2048" msid="78921476" hostid="261"></div><p>US advisors left Colombia on October 1, Isacson said, citing Defense Ministry documents. On Wednesday, McCullum said "SFAB personnel rotated as planned" in early October.</p><p>At a media event on October 13, Col. Thomas Hough, commander of 1st Security Force Assistance Brigade, said he recently returned from Colombia, where he'd spent "the last week and a half or so," but didn't mention the advisors' departure.</p><p>"There was a moment there where our host nation did ask us to pause for a bit as they were working internally with some political issues," Hough said. "After a couple weeks, they ... said, 'Look, we want you to reengage with our forces.' And so we've been out for the last couple months advising them."</p><p>On October 14, the 1st SFAB announced <a href="https://www.facebook.com/1SFAB/posts/2517803235186233?__tn__=-R" target="_blank" rel="noopener">on Facebook</a> that its advisors returned the previous week.</p><p>Security Force Assistance Command spokesperson Maj. Christina Wright said the return wasn't mentioned at the October 13 event because officials present weren't asked about it. "If the topic was brought up we would have addressed it," Wright said.</p><p>Asked at the October 13 event about lessons from recent deployments, Brig. Gen. Scott Jackson, commander of 1st Security Force Assistance Command, said "things have worked out great" but noted that "the political stand down" in Colombia was "something we didn't predict."</p><p>"But we obviously learned from it, about understanding the internal dynamics inside of a partner force country before we can proceed," Jackson added.</p><p>The Colombian Defense Ministry has said another group of about 50 advisors will deploy there, but it's not clear when, Isacson said, citing the documents. At least one Colombian outlet <a href="https://noticias.caracoltv.com/colombia/tropas-de-estados-unidos-que-habian-llegado-a-colombia-salieron-bajo-total-hermetismo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has reported</a> that they're already there.</p><div type="image" title="Demonstrators take part in a protest against the government of Colombia's President Ivan Duque, in Bogota, Colombia, January 21, 2020. REUTERS/Luisa Gonzalez" height="524" width="800" msid="78921478" hostid="261"></div><p>Guzmán and Isacson said the backlash was about Colombian politics more than the US.</p><p>"They had <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/parachute-with-82nd-airborne-in-first-person-colombia-exercise-video-2020-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne</a> in Tolima in January, and nobody seemed to care," Isacson said. "But for some reason this one really struck a chord."</p><p>Colombia's government "grew cocky," Guzmán said. "They didn't follow the book ... and this came to kick them in the butt."</p><p>Trujillo now faces another no-confidence vote. The minister is also a frontrunner for the governing party's presidential nomination in 2022. "This extra attention doesn't really help" Trujillo, Guzmán said. "The opposition is going to try to hammer this home."</p><p>Colombia's security policies, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/progressive-democrats-warn-colombia-in-ndaa-defense-spending-bill-2020-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">and US involvement in them</a>, have <a href="https://www.dpa-international.com/topic/colombia-defence-minister-trujillo-survives-confidence-vote-urn%3Anewsml%3Adpa.com%3A20090101%3A201014-99-935191" target="_blank" rel="noopener">faced increasing scrutiny</a>, however, suggesting the political left there is growing more vocal after <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/colombias-congress-ratifies-peace-accord-with-rebels-2016-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a 2016 peace deal</a> allowing left-wing rebels to demobilize, according to Toby Muse, who has <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-coca-leaves-are-made-into-coca-paste-cocaine-colombia-2020-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported on Colombia</a> for much of the past 20 years.</p><p>"I do think there is this kind of natural balance emerging in Colombia, to have the right wing, which is more open to having to [US] troops there, and to have a left wing, which is more skeptical," Muse told Insider.</p>

How the deployment of the Army's brand-new training unit became a headache for one of the US's closest allies

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Drug trafficker Dairo Antonio Usuga, 50, was arrested in a military raid. </li><li>The president has said that this is the "biggest blow to drug trafficking since the fall of <keyword id="12323292" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="pablo-escobar" source="Orion">Pablo Escobar</keyword>."</li></ul><p>Colombia's military has captured drug lord Dairo Antonio Usuga, known as Otoniel, in what has been called "the biggest blow to drug trafficking in the Andean country since the death of <a href="https://www.insider.com/pablo-escobars-cocaine-hippos-recognised-as-people-in-legal-first-2021-10">Pablo Escobar</a>," according to President Ivan Duque.</p><p>Otoniel, 50, has been accused of sending dozens of shipments of <keyword id="12054962" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="cocaine" source="Orion">cocaine</keyword> to the United States, killing police officers, recruiting minors, and sexually abusing children, among other crimes, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/colombia-armed-forces-capture-top-drug-trafficker-otoniel-sources-2021-10-23/">Reuters reports.</a> He imported 73 metric tons of cocaine into the US between 2003-2014, say Miami and Brooklyn indictments, according to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/colombia-announces-capture-of-one-of-most-wanted-traffickers/2021/10/23/9803fed0-3459-11ec-8036-7db255bff176_story.html?utm_source=feedly&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=wp_homepagehomepage">The Washington Post.</a></p><p>He was captured during 'operation Osiris' in Colombia's Uraba region, located in Antioquia province, on October 23. He had been living the life of a fugitive for many years and supposedly slept in a different rural location every night, according to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/colombia-announces-capture-of-one-of-most-wanted-traffickers/2021/10/23/9803fed0-3459-11ec-8036-7db255bff176_story.html?utm_source=feedly&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=wp_homepagehomepage">The Washington Post.</a></p><p>Otoniel was the leader of the Los Urabeños or the Autodefensas Gaitanistas, which the US Department of Justice website describes as "a heavily armed, extremely violent criminal organization composed of former members of terrorist organizations."</p><div type="image" title="Dairo Antonio Usuga, drug lord who has been captured by Colombian military." height="4000" width="5334" msid="87239727" hostid="261"></div><p>They add that "the organization uses violence and intimidation to control the narcotics trafficking routes, cocaine processing laboratories, speedboat departure points, and clandestine landing strips."</p><p>Before he was captured, the Colombian government offered 3 billion pesos (roughly $800,000) for information concerning Otoniel's whereabouts. The US government had offered a $5 million reward for locating him. </p><p>"This blow is only comparable to the fall of Pablo Escobar in the 1990s," said President Duque said during a broadcast video message. "</p><p>One police officer died during the operation, Duque said.</p><p>The take-down operation involved more than 500 members of Colombia's special forces and 22 helicopters, according to defense minister Diego Molano, <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/colombian-kingpin-otoniel-arrested-in-biggest-blow-to-drug-trafficking-since-fall-of-pablo-escobar-12442968">Sky News reports</a>.</p><p>Though government officials have said Otoniel's capture represented the end of the Clan del Golfo, Colombia Risk Analysis director Sergio Guzman has pleaded caution, saying a new leader would surely be waiting to take over.</p><p>"It's a big deal because he's the biggest drug kingpin in Colombia," Guzman told Reuters, adding that the capture would not change the fundamentals of drug trafficking. "Otoniel is bound to be replaced."</p>

Colombian drug lord 'Otoniel' arrested in biggest blow to drug trafficking 'since the fall of Pablo Escobar,' said president

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="12185376" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="colombia" source="Orion">Colombia</keyword>'s president compared the recent capture of the kingpin known as <keyword id="12520711" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="otoniel" source="Orion">Otoniel</keyword> to that of <keyword id="12323292" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="pablo-escobar" source="Orion">Pablo Escobar</keyword>.</li><li>Escobar's death was a blow to his cartel, but many smuggling groups have emerged to replace him.</li></ul><p>Mexico City - The same day Colombia's armed forces <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/colombia-armed-forces-capture-top-drug-trafficker-otoniel-sources-2021-10-23/">captured</a> Dario Antonio Usuga, known as Otoniel, Colombian President Ivan Duque said the arrest was "only comparable to the fall of Pablo Escobar."</p><p>Otoniel's capture is a major blow to a powerful drug-trafficking group, but many feel it is not something to brag about and fear that, as after other major arrests, the country could plunge into something worse.</p><p>Otoniel, first a member of the guerrilla organization Ejercito Popular de Liberación and later a prominent paramilitary leader, rose to be the most wanted cartel boss in Colombia, with the US offering a <a href="https://www.state.gov/narcotics-rewards-program-target-information-wanted/dario-antonio-usuga-david/">$5 million</a> reward for him.</p><p>Otoniel led <a href="https://www.insider.com/r-colombias-gulf-clan-crime-gang-declares-holiday-ceasefire-2018-12">Clan del Golfo</a>, also called Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia (AGC), considered by Colombian authorities to be a "<a href="https://www.redalyc.org/journal/4978/497864669008/html/">Class A Organized Armed Group</a>."</p><p>US authorities say the group is the main Colombian ally of Mexico's powerful Sinaloa Cartel, partnering with it to profit from drug-trafficking and human-smuggling rings worth millions of dollars.</p><p>He now faces charges related to <keyword id="12306054" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="drug-trafficking" source="Orion">drug trafficking</keyword>, the killing of police officers, recruitment of minors, and sexually abusing children, <a href="https://www.state.gov/narcotics-rewards-program-target-information-wanted/dario-antonio-usuga-david/">according</a> to US and Colombian authorities.</p><h2>Who's next</h2><div type="image" title="Colombia cocaine drug bust seizure" height="1285" width="2000" msid="87670018" hostid="261"></div><p>The vast quantities of cocaine that Otoniel smuggled drew comparisons to Escobar and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cartels-took-medellin-cartel-place-after-pablo-escobars-death-2017-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the infamous Medellin Cartel</a>, but many Colombians saw Duque's pronouncement as a media stunt, as Escobar's involvement in terrorism and national politics sets him apart.</p><p>"It was a political stunt to get some press attention and legitimize [his] administration," Carlos Bohorquez, a Medellin resident, said of Duque.</p><p>"To me, having lived through the Escobar years, Otoniel has nothing to do [with it]. But it doesn't mean it was not a good thing that he was arrested and put behind bars," Bohorquez said.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/internacional/alias-otoniel-fue-capturado-en-colombia-con-un-operativo-de-500-uniformados-y-22-helicopteros-nota/">operation</a> that led to the arrest - which involved 500 Colombian special-forces personnel and 22 helicopters and in which one police officer died - received major attention from Colombian politicians and diplomats.</p><p>"Congratulations! To our Police and to our Military Force. Many years of persecution of this individual who has done so much damage to the country," Juan Carlos Pinzón, Colombia's ambassador to the US, <a href="https://twitter.com/pinzonbueno/status/1452051611895877641?s=21">wrote</a> on Twitter.</p><div type="image" title="Los Urabenos Colombia drug gang cartels Medellin" height="3264" width="4912" msid="87670019" hostid="261"></div><p>While many in Colombia celebrated Otoniel's arrest, others now expect rough times.</p><p>"The market has diversified immediately after Otoniel's arrest. His detention has thrown away a monopoly, opening the doors to new players," said Sergio Guzmán, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, a Colombia-based security and risk-analysis firm.</p><p>Guzmán said this has happened in the past, first with former <keyword id="12520713" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="medellin-cartel" source="Orion">Medellin cartel</keyword> boss <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/carlos-lehder-medellin-cartel-drug-smuggler-released-after-33-years-2020-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Carlos Lehder</a> and later with Pablo Escobar.</p><p><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-killed-notorious-colombian-drug-kingpin-pablo-escobar-2016-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Escobar's death</a> and the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cali-cartel-learned-from-escobar-according-to-dea-agent-javier-pena-2017-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">collapse of the rival Cali Cartel</a> allowed paramilitary groups to expand into drug trafficking while also conducting robberies, extortion, and kidnapping. Those groups were followed by "bandas criminales," which are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/colombia-criminal-cartel-world-changes-after-pablo-escobar-was-killed-2017-2">generally more dispersed and compartmentalized</a> - making them harder to root out and more resilient.</p><p>The AGC was the most powerful of those latter groups, and Otoniel was a demonstration of their resilience. Pinzon <a href="https://twitter.com/PinzonBueno/status/1452051611895877641?s=20">noted</a> that Otoniel took over when his brother was killed in 2012.</p><p>"What is worrisome after the arrest of Otoniel is not if he was bigger than Pablo Escobar or not. [It] is who is next," Guzmán said.</p><h2>'Progressive fragmentation'</h2><div type="image" title="Dairo Antonio Usuga, drug lord who has been captured by Colombian military." height="4121" width="5334" msid="87670021" hostid="261"></div><p>Otoniel's arrest and the power vacuum it creates could lead to more violence as criminal groups fracture and compete, according to Colombian government officials. </p><p>Such <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mexico-war-on-cartels-failure-violence-defense-intelligence-agency-chief-2018-2">fragmentation is visible in Mexico</a>, where a decade of targeting top kingpins has caused major cartels <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fragmentation-in-mexico-war-on-drugs-created-400-new-gangs-2021-10">to fracture into hundreds of gangs</a>.</p><p>Currently there are about 10 major criminal organizations operating in Colombia, <a href="https://colombiareports.com/agc-gulf-clan/">according</a> to Indepaz, a nongovernmental group that promotes peace and justice.</p><p>"A progressive fragmentation of the criminal organization is expected, since Otoniel … was the only leader with total command and control," Gen. Fernando Murillo, who leads Colombia's judicial police, part of the National Police force, said in an <a href="https://www.elnuevosiglo.com.co/articulos/11-01-2021-se-proyecta-una-atomizacion-del-clan-del-golfo-general-fernando-vallejo">interview</a> with local media.</p><p>Differences that "transcend" internal disputes could arise among AGC members seeking control, Murillo added, predicting the group's "atomization" into smaller, less capable factions.</p><div type="image" title="Colombia cocaine submarine" height="2336" width="3500" msid="87670022" hostid="261"></div><p>Murillo listed Wilmer "Siopas" Giraldo Quiroz; Jobanis de Jesus Avila, aka "Chiquito Malo"; Jose "Gonzalito" Sanchez; and Orozman Osten Blanco, aka "Rodrigo Flechas" as Otoniel's potential successors.</p><p>"Siopas" is considered AGC's second-in-command and is wanted for his involvement in organized crime. "Chiquito Malo" is in charge of production and shipment of AGC's tons of cocaine to the US. Colombian authorities have a bounty of $133,000 for his capture.</p><p>"Gonzalito" is considered "a brother" to Otoniel, according to <a href="https://www.larazon.es/internacional/20211026/vu5knaftjfbu5ooe7t3xucfroe.html">media reports</a> and a prominent member of the AGC. "Rodrigo Flechas" is one of the most violent criminals in Colombia, responsible for killings and kidnapping in the Cordoba municipality.</p><p>The AGC's main business is cocaine - cocaine production in Colombia rose 8% between 2019 and 2020, <a href="https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Colombia/Colombia_Monitoreo_de_territorios_afectados_por_cultivos_ilicitos_2020.pdf">according</a> to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime - and its main blocs <a href="https://insightcrime.org/news/otoniel-arrest-really-mean-for-colombia/">still control</a> some of Colombia's most important cocaine-producing regions.</p><p>But the group has found other lucrative enterprises.</p><div type="image" title="Haiti migrants in Necocli Colombia" height="1313" width="2000" msid="87670023" hostid="261"></div><p>Before his arrest, Otoniel was <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/colombian-cartel-profiting-off-of-migrants-going-through-deadly-jungle-2021-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">making millions from smuggling US-bound migrants</a> through Colombia. His smuggling ring out of Necoclí in northern Colombia transported migrants toward the border with Panama, demanding payment for all sorts of things along the way.</p><p>An AGC operative said after Otoniel's arrest that his capture hadn't affected business, telling Insider that "the organization has continued working under a new administration."</p><p>Colombian officials have said they're working on extraditing Otoniel to the US and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/arrest-colombian-crime-lord-unlikely-turn-tide-drug-war-2021-10-25/">made clear</a> they will keep going after whoever replaces him.</p><p>"We will continue to combat the Clan del Golfo and will not rest until this organization is finished. We're going for Siopas, for Gonzalito, for Chiquito Malo," Murillo said.</p>

Colombia's president says the latest kingpin to be captured is as big as Escobar. That may not be a good sign.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Democrats are warning the US and Colombian governments about how they've conducted their decades-long wars on drugs and crime.</li><li>Two amendments to the annual US defense-spending bill rein in the use of <keyword id="9654049" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="aerial-fumigation">aerial fumigation</keyword> to eradicate <keyword id="14727" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="60" keywordseo="cocaine">cocaine</keyword> and require reporting on allegations of abuses by <keyword id="15385" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Colombia">Colombia</keyword>'s military.</li></ul><p>The $740 billion National Defense Authorization Act passed by the US House of Representatives last week includes a warning from progressive Democrats to the US and Colombia over the decades-long fight against drugs and crime.</p><p>Amendments from Reps. <keyword id="203608" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Jim-McGovern">Jim McGovern</keyword> and <keyword id="7018494" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</keyword> require reporting on the use of US military assistance to commit abuses and restrict funding for aerial fumigation to eradicate coca crops. Senate and House versions of the NDAA still have to reconciled before the bill can go the White House.</p><p>"Over the last 20 years, we have seen reports that illegal surveillance against human-rights defenders and journalists and judicial authorities and the political opposition have become commonplace," McGovern told Insider on Thursday.</p><p>"The point of this amendment is to make it very clear to the Colombian government that people are fed up," McGovern said. "None of us want to be supporting institutions that do this kind of stuff. So this is a warning signal."</p><h2>'A first step'</h2><p><div type="image" title="US troops Colombia explosive ordnance disposal" height="933" width="1400" msid="77208663" hostid="261"></div></p><p>The latest scandal for Colombia's military — which has received billions in aid and decades of training from the US — stems from <a href="https://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/espionaje-del-ejercito-nacional-las-carpetas-secretas-investigacion-semana/667616" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a May 1 report</a> that army intelligence units <a href="https://www.wola.org/analysis/scandal-colombia-military-intelligence-spying/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">were compiling dossiers</a> on possible whistleblowers, politicians, judges, activists, and <a href="https://cpj.org/2019/05/colombia-nytimes-journalist-nicholas-casey-harassed-uribe-senators/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">journalists</a>, including US citizens.</p><p>Such allegations led Colombia to disband its intelligence agency, known as DAS, in 2011. By then, at least 20 current and former DAS officials <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-15533091" target="_blank" rel="noopener">had been jailed</a>.</p><p>"At some point, you can't buy the ... excuse that this is just a few bad apples," Robert Karl, a historian of conflict in Colombia, said in an interview earlier this year. "These kinds of abuses are systematic. They're tied into other patterns of illegality and violence within the military."</p><p>McGovern's <a href="https://amendments-rules.house.gov/amendments/MCGOVE_048_xml_IntelCol_V3716201810401040.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">amendment</a> states that no military or intelligence aid provided through US security assistance programs should be used for "unlawful surveillance or intelligence gathering" against civilians and that the US "should consistently and at all times promote the protection of internationally-recognized human rights in Colombia."</p><p>It also directs the State Department and other agencies to submit a report within four months of the NDAA's passage that details whether and how US assistance was used in illegal activity.</p><p><div type="image" title="Joseph Dunford Colombia" height="1585" width="2500" msid="77208665" hostid="261"></div></p><p>"This is probably one of the most comprehensive requests of a report on Colombia that I can ever remember," McGovern said. "This report is a first step. We need to see what happened, and we need to figure out what to do in response, but clearly there's something wrong here."</p><p>The report will also detail what the US and Colombian governments have done in response to that misconduct.</p><p>"If it was up to me, I would end security assistance to Colombia right now," McGovern said. "Those who are responsible for illegal acts ought to be held accountable ... Clearly that doesn't happen in Colombia."</p><p>"When you surveil human-rights defenders, for example, or journalists, they're doing it not just to monitor and find out information," McGovern added. "We know that those very journalists and those very human-rights defenders become targets."</p><p>Killings of social leaders and former rebels have intensified since a 2016 peace deal between the government and the left-wing FARC rebel group. More than 100 social leaders and activists <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/06/lideres-sociales-nos-siguen-matando-durante-cuarentena/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">have been killed</a> so far this year.</p><p>"Neither our judicial authorities, the military, or any government has a good track record when it comes to holding our men in uniform accountable," said Sergio Guzmán, director of advisory firm Colombia Risk Analysis. "So I think [more scrutiny is] welcome, but its success is seen with skepticism."</p><h2>'A destructive tactic'</h2><p><div type="image" title="Colombia glyphosate aerial fumigation spraying cocaine coca" height="925" width="1400" msid="77208668" hostid="261"></div></p><p>Ocasio-Cortez's <a href="https://amendments-rules.house.gov/amendments/OCASNY_085_Final71720172808288.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">amendment</a> prohibits use of NDAA funds for aerial fumigation in Colombia without "demonstrated actions by the Government of Colombia to adhere to national and local laws and regulations."</p><p>Colombia halted US-backed aerial fumigation to eradicate coca, cocaine's base ingredient, in 2015 over <a href="https://www.wola.org/2020/03/usa-colombia-anti-drug-plan-failed-aerial-fumigation/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">public-health concerns</a>.</p><p>Colombian President Ivan Duque, at <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-officials-missing-most-of-the-picture-over-cocaine-in-colombia-2017-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trump's urging</a>, seeks to restart fumigation and is <a href="https://www.wola.org/analysis/restarting-aerial-fumigation-of-drug-crops-in-colombia-is-a-mistake/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">navigating</a> court-imposed restrictions, including consultations with communities living where it wants to spray, to do so.</p><p>"Aerial fumigation was a destructive tactic of the US's failed drug war. It negatively impacted the yield of many farmers and the public health of many Colombians," and Ocasio-Cortez was "pleased that the amendment was passed by a voice vote," a spokesperson said.</p><p>The measure seems welcomed by Colombians who've long opposed fumigation, Guzmán said, noting that consultations will be hindered by the coronavirus and that Trump's threats to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/4-reasons-trump-could-decertify-colombia-over-coca-cocaine-production-2019-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">decertify Colombia as counter-drug partner</a> puts more pressure on Duque.</p><p>Karl said continued emphasis on aerial fumigation reflects a lack of commitment to the 2016 peace accord, and McGovern said that instead of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-army-security-force-assistance-brigades-deploying-to-colombia-2020-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more counter-drug training for Colombia's military</a>, he'd prefer US actions "supporting the implementation of the peace process."</p><p>"We finally have a peace agreement that has a lot of good things in it — that, if in fact the agreement were implemented, would provide Colombians a better future," McGovern said. "I think our focus ought to be on that."</p>

In latest $740 billion defense bill, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and a progressive ally send a warning to one of the US's closest allies

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5db09ec6cc4a0a4f532a0066-1400/gettyimages-1160851894.jpg" border="0" alt="Venezuela Caracas militia Trump" data-mce-source="Carolina Cabral/Getty Images" data-mce-caption="A militia member with a banner reading &amp;quotNo More Trump Venezuela&quot; during an anti-Trump demonstration in Caracas, August 10, 2019." /></div></div></div></p><ul class="summary-list"><li>Venezuela has been butting heads with its neighbor, Colombia, since August - tensions punctuated by Venezuelan military exercises along their shared border.</li><li>The US is working with Colombia and others to isolate and remove Venezuela's embattled president, who is backed by Russia.</li><li>Moscow's and Washington's outreach in the region has a military dimension, with Russian maintaining Venezuela's weapons and the US offering to sell some its latest hardware to Colombia.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul><p>Tensions have simmered between Venezuela and its neighbors, Colombia in particular, for months as a US-led international effort tries to isolate and remove embattled Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.</p><p>Venezuela-Colombia relations have been fraught for nearly two decades, and their 1,300-mile border has been closed for long stretches during that period. But the latest tensions have an international dimension, with the US and Russia backing different sides as part of a broader competition for influence.</p><p>Colombia has received <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-colombia-is-handling-influx-of-venezuelan-migrants-2019-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">millions of Venezuelans</a> who have left their country since 2015, and President Ivan Duque has taken a hard line against Maduro.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5d6fdbc02e22af1d2a704b43-1400/2019-08-29t194418z1626382976rc17c53dafa0rtrmadp3colombia-peace.jpg" border="0" alt="FARC dissident rebel Ivan Marquez" data-mce-source="FORMER FARC DISSIDENCE HANDOUT via REUTERS" data-mce-caption="A former FARC Commander known by his alias Ivan Marquez reads a statement that they will take up their insurgency once again, in this undated screen grab obtained from a video released on August 29, 2019." /></div></div></div></p><p>One of Duque's main issues, Colombian criminal and rebels groups operating in Venezuela, became <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28233/the-oas-ramps-up-regional-pressure-on-venezuela-through-the-rio-treaty" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more heated</a> at the end of August, when former members of the FARC rebel group released a video, which appeared to have been filmed in Venezuela, announcing a return to arms three years after signing a peace deal with Duque's predecessor.</p><p>Colombia has <a href="https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1986874-colombia-venezuela-locked-in-vitriol-over-frontier" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presented evidence</a> of Colombian armed groups active in Venezuela (though photos Duque presented at the UN in September were actually taken in Colombia), but that isn't a controversial allegation, according to Geoff Ramsey, assistant director for Venezuela at the human-rights advocacy group Washington Office on Latin America.</p><p>"I think the more controversial element of Duque's claims is that Venezuela is a state sponsor of terror and that there is overt cooperation between the Maduro government and armed groups in Colombia," Ramsey said. "The trickiest thing to prove is to what extent is the Maduro government itself coordinating actions with Colombian guerrillas, and that's difficult to prove in part because of the complete break down of law and order in Venezuela."</p><p>Colombia has stuck to its assertions. At the end of August, Foreign Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo said there was "<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-politics/colombias-fight-against-rebels-would-be-easier-without-maduro-minister-idUSKCN1VL0HP" target="_blank" rel="noopener">no doubt</a>" it would be easier to fight those groups if Maduro were gone.</p><h2>A special alert</h2><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5db09fd24af9095fb44d1192-1400/gettyimages-1167271740.jpg" border="0" alt="Venezuela army national guard missiles military exercise" data-mce-source="SCHNEYDER MENDOZA/AFP/Getty Images" data-mce-caption="A military vehicle carrying missiles during a military exercise at Garcia Hevia airport in La Fria, Tachira state, September 10, 2019." /></div></div></div></p><p>Those tensions increased in September, when Maduro said military exercises would take place along the border and ordered the armed forces to be alert for a potential attack by Colombia.</p><p>The exercises kicked off on September 10. Remigio Ceballos, the Venezuelan military's Strategic Operational Commander, said 150,000 troops and police were conducting activities "related to security ... and the interception of any invasion."</p><p>Along with the soldiers, armored vehicles, and aircraft Venezuela <a href="https://www.dw.com/es/venezuela-inicia-ejercicios-militares-con-despliegue-de-tropa-en-la-frontera-con-colombia/a-50376029" target="_blank" rel="noopener">deployed</a> for the exercises were mobile rocket launchers and anti-aircraft systems, among them the Russian-made S-300, considered the <a href="https://www.infobae.com/america/venezuela/2019/03/25/que-es-y-como-funciona-el-sistema-antiaereo-ruso-s-300-desplegado-por-el-regimen-de-nicolas-maduro-alrededor-de-caracas/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">most advanced</a> air-defense system in Latin America.</p><p>Trujillo <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/venezuela-military-exercises-on-border-a-threat-colombia-minister-2019-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">called</a> the drills "a threat" reflecting "the consistent bad actions of a [Maduro] government which creates crisis situations."</p><p>A senior military commander said on September 11 that Colombia's forces were "<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-venezuela/colombias-armed-forces-on-alert-over-venezuela-military-exercises-idUSKCN1VW2YD" target="_blank" rel="noopener">on a special alert</a>" in response to the exercises. "We have been openly threatened," the commander said.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5db09fd2cc4a0a50372892b5-1400/gettyimages-1167271769.jpg" border="0" alt="Venezuela army national guard military exercise troops soldiers" data-mce-source="SCHNEYDER MENDOZA/AFP/Getty Images" data-mce-caption="National Guard members during in a military exercise at Garcia Hevia airport in La Fria, Tachira state, September 10, 2019." /></div></div></div></p><p>"Maduro and his cronies, they've always had an annual exercise regime, so part of this is the annual regime just continuing," US Navy Adm. Craig Faller, head of US Southern Command, said at a Defense Writers Group breakfast in early October, when asked about those exercises, which ended on September 28.</p><p>Maduro's government is "spending money on moving their forces around to make a statement to the neighbors," Faller said, calling Maduro "an illegitimate leader" propped up by Russia, Cuba, and, to a lesser extent, China.</p><p>"Some of it's [Maduro's] attempt to show that he's still capable and has military forces," Faller added. "We always are concerned about a nation's military. I would never discount or discredit somebody's forces as being incapable. That's not the right approach for planning."</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5db09fd24af9095fb06c8403-1400/gettyimages-1167271749.jpg" border="0" alt="Venezuela army national guard military exercise troops soldiers" data-mce-source="SCHNEYDER MENDOZA/AFP/Getty Images" data-mce-caption="Venezuelan National Guard members during a military exercise at Garcia Hevia airport in La Fria, Tachira state, September 10, 2019." /></div></div></div></p><p>The US will "look at what [Venezuelans] have or what they could have, and we work through that continuously and share that assessment with our partners," Faller said. "So we're monitoring that and sharing information on that, and it also gives us an indication of the readiness of those forces."</p><p>Faller didn't elaborate on that readiness, but in an email, US Southern Command said Venezuela's "security capabilities continue to decline steadily."</p><p>Venezuela's "inability to address pressing internal security challenges and continued desertions indicate low levels of operational readiness and professionalism," it added. "Transnational criminal and narco-terrorist groups operate virtually unchallenged inside Venezuela, vividly demonstrating the security force's current ineffectiveness."</p><h2>'A threat to the region'</h2><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5db0a08d4af90960830a7482-1400/gettyimages-839667192.jpg" border="0" alt="Venezuela militia rocket launcher" data-mce-source="Carlos Becerra/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images" data-mce-caption="A woman with a rocket launcher during military drills in Caracas, August 26, 2017." /></div></div></div></p><p>Venezuela's military has been strained in 2019. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/venezuelan-soldiers-reasons-explain-why-they-desert-and-turn-on-nicolas-maduro-2019-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hundreds of members have defected</a> this year, and discontent is widespread among those who remain, particularly lower-ranking troops.</p><p>"The Venezuelan military has definitely shown a fraying at the edges," Ramsey said. "But I've also been surprised at their cohesiveness. I think there was an expectation in January that this whole thing was just going to fall apart."</p><p>Late President Hugo Chavez and his successor, Maduro, have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/special-report-why-the-military-still-stands-by-venezuelas-beleaguered-president-2019-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cultivated loyalty</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/special-report-how-cuba-taught-venezuela-to-quash-military-dissent-2019-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">punished dissent</a> in the ranks, which has helped keep Maduro in power despite deepening disdain for his government.</p><p>"There's definitely been a breakdown in terms of professionalism, resources [and] chain of command ... but I don't think it's necessarily a 'Mad Max' scenario ... they have functioning equipment, [and] they have a military structure in place that goes beyond the formal standing army," Ramsey said, referring to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/troops-colectivos-militias-keep-nicolas-maduro-in-power-in-venezuela-2019-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">militias and other armed groups</a> backing Maduro.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5db0a08dcc4a0a51215c6735-1400/gettyimages-809405310.jpg" border="0" alt="Venezuela military fighter jet Su-30" data-mce-source="FEDERICO PARRA/AFP/Getty Images" data-mce-caption="Russian-made Venezuelan air force Sukhoi Su-30MKV multirole strike fighters fly over a military parade to celebrate Venezuela's 206th anniversary of its independence in Caracas, July 5, 2017." /></div></div></div></p><p>The functioning of that equipment, like those S-300s, is owed largely to Russian support, including repeated deployments of technicians to Venezuela, including <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-military-specialists-arrive-in-venezuela-to-service-equipment-interfax-2019-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a contingent that arrived</a> on September 25.</p><p>"There are hundreds of Russians in Venezuela," and Venezuela has "a significant amount of Russian arms ... and Russian support to maintaining [and] upgrading those arms," Faller said. "That's a primary line of effort for Russia."</p><p>Those technicians, like Maduro's meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-bombers-visiting-venezuela-did-drills-over-the-caribbean-2018-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">deployment of Russian bombers to Venezuela</a> in December, have taken the current tensions beyond a regional dispute.</p><p>"There's no denying that Venezuela's crisis has been increasingly shaped by broader geopolitical trends," Ramsey said. "Russia is definitely deepening its foothold in Venezuela, both through oil contracts as well as military contracts."</p><p>Those military contracts include Russian Su-30 fighter jets, 24 of which Venezuela ordered in 2006 and now operates alongside US-made F-16 fighters acquired earlier. (At least two Su-30s have been lost in <a href="https://www.infodefensa.com/latam/2019/10/17/noticia-fallecidos-estrellarse-su30mk2-fuerza-aerea-venezuela.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fatal crashes</a>, including one this month.)</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5db0a1f44af90961d70562c3-1400/5616680.jpg" border="0" alt="Colombia air force Kfir fighter jet" data-mce-source="US Air Force/Tech. Sgt. Danny Rangel" data-mce-caption="Colombian air force personnel perform maintenance checks on a Kfir fighter jet during Exercise Relámpago in Barranquilla, Colombia, July 17, 2019." /></div></div></div></p><p>Those Russian jets are "a threat to the region," Maj. Gen. Andrew Croft, head of Air Forces Southern, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/18/alarmed-by-venezuela-u-s-military-seeks-to-sell-arms-to-colombia/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told Foreign Policy</a> earlier this year. Faller, in his remarks this month, said hundreds of Russian mercenaries were in Venezuela.</p><p>That's part of the reason the US has offered to sell Colombia 15 of the latest version of the F-16, according to Foreign Policy. Those jets would be "a great advancement" for Colombia's "capability to defend their sovereign air space," Croft said at the time.</p><p>In addition to a commercial victory, the US would benefit from that sale by offsetting support Maduro has gotten from Russia and China, Sergio Guzman, director of advisory firm <a href="https://www.colombiariskanalysis.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Colombia Risk Analysis</a>, wrote in a note in late August.</p><p>But for now Colombia seems unlikely to go for the sale, Guzmán told Business Insider. Bogotá has been restrained and has sought to build a case against Venezuela internationally. Budgetary restrictions and a lack of public support for major defense expenditures also make that purchase less likely.</p><p>"Colombia will always be interested in that hardware," Guzmán said, "but it will be difficult to justify from a fiscal point of view in the current juncture."</p><h2>A deal for Maduro</h2><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5db0a2eecc4a0a53b919ea42-1400/2019-06-09t182626z1201084029rc1353a0ddf0rtrmadp3venezuela-politics-colombia.jpg" border="0" alt="Colombia Venezuela border soldier troops" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Carlos Eduardo Ramirez" data-mce-caption="A member of the Colombian security forces on guard as people cross the Colombian-Venezuelan border over the partially opened Simon Bolivar international bridge in Cucuta, Colombia, June 9, 2019." /></div></div></div></p><p>Venezuela's military exercises have concluded, but tensions in the region remain elevated, and there's still a chance an incident along the border could escalate, especially given command-and-control issues among Venezuela's armed forces and the panoply of armed groups and illicit activity going on there.</p><p>Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, an influential adviser on Latin America to President Donald Trump, <a href="https://es.panampost.com/emmanuel-rincon/2019/10/19/marco-rubio-ningun-pais-ha-pedido-solucion-militar-en-venezuela/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> this month that no one in the region has requested US military action and that he wouldn't support it, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/diplomat-says-us-does-not-want-military-intervention-in-venezuela-report-2019-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">echoing</a> the US envoy to Venezuela.</p><p>Duque and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who has also taken a hardline on Venezuela, have both also rejected military intervention.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/536ceea869bedd71593e69c2-2400/rtx11a0q.jpg" border="0" alt="putin russia maduro venezuela" data-mce-source="Maxim Shemetov/Reuters" /></div></div></div></p><p>China and Russia, knowing Maduro has few options other than threatening conflict, are also likely urging restraint, Guzman said.</p><p>Moscow may even be open to a new arrangement in Venezuela if it can hang on to investments it already has there.</p><p>"Russia, I'm convinced, is out to make the United States look bad at every turn of the corner and hang on to some of their traditional alliances," Faller said.</p><p>"I think ultimately Putin is interested in providing a nuisance for the United States in its own hemisphere, but I suspect he's not particularly married to Maduro," Ramsey said.</p>

The US and Russia, and their fighter jets, are looming over Venezuela's latest dispute

<p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5baaac0c8cec63c9648b456b-1400/2018-09-25t000000z2023964735rc18bb122b90rtrmadp3un-assembly.jpg" border="0" alt="Donald Trump Ivan Duque Colombia UN General Assembly" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Carlos Barria" data-mce-caption="President Donald Trump with Colombian President Ivan Duque during the 73rd session of the UN General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York City, September 25, 2018."><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Carlos Barria</span></p><p class="caption">President Donald Trump with Colombian President Ivan Duque during the 73rd session of the UN General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York City, September 25, 2018.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div><ul class="summary-list"><li><strong>US-led military action to address the situation in Venezuela has been floated several times by US officials.</strong></li><li><strong>At the UN General Assembly, President Donald Trump was asked about what threat Venezuela poses.</strong></li><li><strong>In his response, Trump joked about an August attack on Venezuela's president, when two exploding drones sent assembled troops scattering.</strong></li></ul><p>Since President Donald Trump first mentioned <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-discussion-of-venezuela-intervention-compared-to-iraq-war-2018-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">potential US military action</a> in response to ongoing crises in Venezuela, the idea of US-led intervention has been raised by policymakers in the US and around the region.</p><p>The subject returned to the fore in recent weeks, as several officials, including Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, stressed that no option should be ruled out.</p><p>During a meeting with Colombian President Ivan Duque at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, Trump found an opportunity to make light of the tension.</p><p>While taking questions alongside Duque, Trump was asked how dangerous the Maduro government was to national security and what, if anything, he would do to address that threat.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5b71f0e5e361c019008b4df0-1400/2018-08-04t234814z1907730535rc1274700c20rtrmadp3venezuela-maduro.jpg" border="0" alt="Venezuela Caracas Maduro assassination attempt crowd drone attack" data-mce-source="Venezuelan government/ via Reuters" data-mce-caption="Venezuelan National Guard soldiers scatter after an incident at an event in Caracas on August 4, 2018."><p class="source"><span>Venezuelan government/ via Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Venezuelan National Guard soldiers scatter after an incident at an event in Caracas on August 4, 2018.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div><p>"Well, it's dangerous for their security. It's dangerous for their people's security," Trump said, according to <a href="https://twitter.com/lareveron10/status/1044635575037431808" target="_blank" rel="noopener">footage recorded</a> by Venezuelan journalist Lohena Reveron. "It's a regime that frankly could be toppled very quickly by the military, if the military decides to do that."</p><p>"And you saw how the military spread as soon as they heard a bomb go off way above their head," Trump added in apparent reference to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/drone-attack-on-venezuela-nicolas-maduro-may-be-first-against-leader-2018-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an August attack on Maduro by bomb-laden drones</a>. The drones detonated overhead while Maduro was giving a speech to commemorate the country's national guard.</p><p>"That military was running for cover. That's not good," Trump said. "I don't think the Marines would've run," Trump said, referring to American service members.</p><p>Trump then turned to White House chief of staff and retired Marine general John Kelly: "What do you think, Gen. Kelly? Do the marines run when they hear a bomb go off?"</p><p>"They don't know how to run," Kelly replied, drawing chuckles from the room.</p><p>"You know what they do? They run toward the bomb, right? That's even better," Trump said, eliciting more laughter.</p><p>Trump made the unexpected declaration that he would not "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-discussion-of-venezuela-intervention-compared-to-iraq-war-2018-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rule out a military option</a>" in Venezuela in August 2017.</p><p>In the months since, his administration has kept pressure on Venezuelan officials through targeted sanctions, and Trump himself has reportedly broached the subject of intervention several times with US and foreign officials.</p><p>In August, Rubio <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-discussion-of-venezuela-intervention-compared-to-iraq-war-2018-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said he believed</a> there was a "very strong" argument that "Venezuela and the Maduro regime have become a threat to the region and to the United States."</p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5aff269d1ae66236008b4799-1500/2018-05-18t183409z1lynxnpee4h1mcrtroptp4venezuela-election-military.jpg" border="0" alt="Venezuela soldiers" data-mce-source="Reuters" data-mce-caption="Soldiers standing in formation before the start of a ceremony to kick off the distribution of security forcers and voting materials to be used in the upcoming presidential elections, at Fort Tiuna military base in Caracas, Venezuela May 15, 2018."><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Venezuelan soldiers in formation at Fort Tiuna military base in Caracas, May 15, 2018.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p><span>His comments were followed this month by Organization of American States Secretary General Luis Almagro saying that "with respect to a military intervention" to oust Maduro, he didn't "think any option should be ruled out." </span></p><p><span>Almagro cited the Rwandan genocide as an example of a failure to act.</span></p><p>The idea of US intervention has been dismissed throughout the region. After Almagro's comments, most of the members of the Lima Group, a 14-country bloc formed in 2017 to address the situation in Venezuela, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-discussion-of-venezuela-intervention-compared-to-iraq-war-2018-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said it rejected military action</a> and reiterated a commitment to a "peaceful and negotiated" solution.</p><p>Despite Trump's numerous references to military action, the nominee to lead US Southern Command, which oversees South America, said on Tuesday that no planning was underway for any kind of military option.</p><p><span>"We are not doing anything other than normal prudent planning that a combatant command would do to prepare for a range of contingencies," Navy Vice Adm. Craig Faller <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-defense-venezuela/u-s-military-official-no-plans-for-venezuela-military-intervention-idUSKCN1M52C7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said when asked</a> during his Senate confirmation hearing if Trump or other US officials had suggested preparing military options.</span></p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5aa856573be59f20008b4835-1400/rtx4z10m.jpg" border="0" alt="Venezuela Colombia Cucuta migrants refugees" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Carlos Eduardo Ramirez" data-mce-caption="Venezuelans line the street at the border between Venezuela and Colombia, in Cucuta, Colombia, February 21, 2018."><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Carlos Eduardo Ramirez</span></p><p class="caption">Venezuelans line the street at the border with Venezuela in Cucuta, Colombia, February 21, 2018.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p><span>Fernando Cutz, who was acting senior director for Western Hemisphere Affairs on the National Security Council until earlier this year, said Monday that while he was in that job, the administration never discussed a military option, except for last-resort scenarios that would warrant a response, such as an attack on the US embassy or, he said, a "massacre."</span></p><p><span>But, he said, the administration was willing to listen to parties in Venezuela, such as military leaders, who wanted to talk. (Reports surfaced earlier this year that US officials met with Venezuelans who wanted support for a coup, but the US declined to offer it.) </span></p><p><span>Cutz also noted the Lima Group's statement specifically, saying the region needed to discuss what it is willing to do to resolve the crisis.</span><span></span></p><p><span>"I think we need to have solutions, not just more 'no's,'" Cutz said during an event at the Wilson Center. </span></p><p><span>"And I think we need to sit down and actually think about a multilateral military option before we just knee-jerk say 'no.'"</span></p><div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Trump <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/EEUU?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#EEUU</a> se burla de militares venezolanos tras reunión con Duque <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Colombia?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Colombia</a> "Yo no creo nuestros infantes de marina correrían así, ¿Verdad, General Kelly? // Gral Kelly: No, los marines no habrían corrido.<br>Esto a propósito del atentado contra Maduro. Video: <a href="https://twitter.com/carlaangola?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@carlaangola</a> <a href="https://t.co/fssmeb1sKb">pic.twitter.com/fssmeb1sKb</a></br></p>- Lohena Reverón  (@lareveron10) <a href="https://twitter.com/mims/statuses/1044635575037431808?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 25, 2018</a></blockquote><script async="" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/helima-croft-rbc-commodities-oil-market-venezuela-2017-7">RBC commodity chief: The oil market has a lot riding on Venezuela</a></h3>        <div>            <iframe class="bijwplayerclass" data-player="jwplayer" src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/to2TBSFf-xjRU7l6Z.html" width="100%" height="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="auto" style="margin:0px;" allowfullscreen=""></iframe><script>function receiveMessage(event){ console.log(event.data.fullscreen); Android.fullscreen(event.data.fullscreen); }window.addEventListener("message", receiveMessage, false);</script>        </div>    </div>

Trump and John Kelly joked about the suspected drone attack on Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro

<p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5b33a1ee1ae6621d008b54fc-2400/rtr36vsd.jpg" border="0" alt="Colombia coca cocaine crops eradication war on drugs" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Fredy Builes" data-mce-caption="An antidrug policeman escorts workers during an eradication operation at a coca-leaf plantation near San Miguel, southern Putumayo province, August 15 2012."><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Fredy Builes</span></p><p class="caption">An Colombian antidrug policeman escorts workers during an eradication operation at a coca-leaf plantation near San Miguel, in southern Putumayo province, August 15 2012.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div><ul><li><strong>Coca cultivation in Colombia rose again in 2017, though the increase was lower than past years.</strong></li><li><strong>The US government also connected increased production to increased cocaine use in the US.</strong></li><li><strong>Colombia's president-elect is expected to pursue more aggressive security and counter-drug policies.</strong></li></ul><hr><p>The consistent increase in coca cultivation that Colombia has seen in recent years continued in 2017, although at a slightly slower pace, the US Office of National Drug Control Policy said on June 25.</p><p>Cultivation of coca, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-cocaine-is-made-2017-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cocaine's base ingredient</a>, went up 11% in 2017, rising from 188,000 hectares, or 464,558 acres, in 2016 to 209,000 hectares, or 516,450 acres, last year - "reaching an all-time high," the ONDCP said in a release.</p><p>Colombia's potential pure cocaine production also went up 19%, from 772 metric tons to 921 metric tons last year, though other estimates put the potential production <a href="https://www.insightcrime.org/news/brief/colombia-coca-production-hits-new-record-high-us-figures-say/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">much higher</a>.</p><p>The area under cultivation has steadily risen. The 42% spike between 2014 and 2015 was the largest single-year increase on record, but the growth as slowed over the past two years. The area under cultivation grew 18% between 2015 and 2016 and just 11% between 2016 and 2017. (Though the ONDCP has in the past <a href="https://twitter.com/SanhoTree/status/1011348973129555968" target="_blank" rel="noopener">discouraged</a> year-to-year to comparisons, as its methodology can change.)</p><p>"There's no sugarcoating things here," said Jim Carroll, deputy director of the ONDCP. "This is just not where we want cocaine production to be."</p><p>"Even though Colombian eradication efforts improved in 2017, they were outstripped by the acceleration in production. The Government of Colombia must do more to address this increase. The steep upward trajectory is unacceptable," Carroll said in the release, adding that the US would continue working with Colombia to reduce coca cultivation and cocaine production.</p><p>The ONDCP also connected rising cocaine production in Colombia to increased cocaine use and drug-related violence in the US, though analysts have <a href="https://www.insightcrime.org/news/analysis/cocaine-consumption-rise-think-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disputed that link</a>.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/577ecf2a88e4a71b008b699e-2400/ap16188860831201.jpg" border="0" alt="Colombia cocaine production" data-mce-source="AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd" data-mce-caption="In this January 6, 2016, photo, Edgar mulches coca leaves with a weed eater as the first step in making coca paste at a small makeshift lab in the mountain region of Antioquia, Colombia. Next to him the laborers who harvested the leaves eat their breakfast."><p class="source"><span>AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd</span></p><p class="caption">A Colombian farmer mulches coca leaves with a weed eater in the first step in making coca paste at a small makeshift lab in the mountain region of Antioquia, Colombia, January 6, 2016.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div><p>"The number of new cocaine users in the United States has increased by 81% since 2013 and overdose deaths involving cocaine have more than doubled during that same timeframe," the release said. "When cocaine was used in some combination with opioids, overdose deaths increased 110%."</p><p>While the area under cultivation hit a new level, eradication was also at one of the highest levels on record, according to Adam Isacson, director of <keyword id="6354810" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="defense">defense</keyword> oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America.</p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">"Fifty-three thousand hectares is what they forcibly manually eradicated last year, not even counting the feeble substitution programs, and that's the fourth-most in a year that you've ever had for manual eradication," Isacson said on Monday.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">"If it continued that level or greater of manual eradication, and if they can really step up the crop substitution, then I think they can start getting some reductions pretty soon."</span></p><h2>'The Trump people will be delighted'</h2><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/59e51cda1f84891e008b61c5-2400/rtxchk6.jpg" border="0" alt="Colombia Tumaco coca crops cocaine eradication" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Eliana Aponte" data-mce-caption="Colombian anti-narcotics police spray herbicide on a coca plantation in La Espriella, near Tumaco, Nariño province, March 7, 2009."><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Eliana Aponte</span></p><p class="caption">Colombian anti-narcotics police spray herbicide on a coca plantation in La Espriella, near Tumaco in Nariño province, March 7, 2009.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div><p>The US has long supported the Colombian governments' fight against the drug trade, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-colombia-to-use-drones-to-fumigate-coca-leaf-with-herbicide-2018-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">providing</a> some $10 billion for military and social programs between 2000 and 2015. That aid has fallen to about $400 million annually, and in recent years US officials have been dismayed by coca's rebound from a low point in 2012.</p><p>In 2013, the US government began <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/coca-cultivation-in-colombia-reaches-new-high-1529954782?mod=e2twp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reducing</a> the aerial spraying used to eradicate coca crops, and the Colombian government suspended the practice <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-colombia-govt-confirms-suspension-of-aerial-coca-spraying-2015-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in mid-2015</a>, due to health concerns about the herbicides that were used.</p><p>President Juan Manuel Santos, who will leave office on August 7, has also been criticized for a peace accord signed with left-wing rebel group the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia in late 2016.</p><p>Officials in the US and Colombia say the deal doesn't do enough to confront the drug trade, while others on the ground in Colombia say the government has been <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/farmers-in-colombia-relying-on-economic-benefits-of-cocaine-production-2018-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">slow to fulfill its obligations</a>, allowing other criminal groups to pick up FARC's slack and leaving civilians in the lurch.</p><p>Over the past year and a half, the Trump administration has <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-officials-missing-most-of-the-picture-over-cocaine-in-colombia-2017-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pressured Bogota to do more to fight coca production</a> - threatening to decertify Colombia as a partner in the war on drugs in 2017 - while also <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/coca-cultivation-in-colombia-reaches-new-high-1529954782?mod=e2twp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">courting</a> the Colombian government to support the effort to confront the Venezuelan government.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/59bd637c9803c524008b6aa5-2400/rtx36h51.jpg" border="0" alt="Donald Trump Juan Manuel Santos Colombia" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Yuri Gripas" data-mce-caption="President Donald Trump welcomes Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos at the White House, May 18, 2017."><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Yuri Gripas</span></p><p class="caption">President Donald Trump with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos at the White House, May 18, 2017.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div><p>Ivan Duque, a right-winger who won a June 16 presidential run-off, is seen as a hardliner likely to adopt more aggressive security and anti-drug policies.</p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">"I think he wants to go back to the future," Isacson said of Duque's approach to counter-drug efforts. "The Trump people will be delighted." </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Duque "has spoken openly about the need to not cut deals with coca growers" and has referred to the section of the accord regarding crop substitution as "that disastrous chapter," Isacson said on Monday, adding that Duque wanted to increase eradication and was likely to use drones to do it.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Santos has already decided to reintroduce aerial spraying, however, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-colombia-to-use-drones-to-fumigate-coca-leaf-with-herbicide-2018-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">authorizing</a> on Tuesday the use of drones to carry out low-altitude fumigation using the herbicide glyphosate.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Santos said the drones' low altitude would simulate ground eradication and limit the dangers of glyphosate, which has been linked to cancer. And while others are concerned that Duque's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-santos-sees-colombia-peace-deal-safe-under-hawkish-successor-2018-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">harsh criticism</a> of the peace accord means its future is in peril, Santos said the deal is safe.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><span>"The accord is bulletproofed," Santos <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-santos-sees-colombia-peace-deal-safe-under-hawkish-successor-2018-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told</a> the Associated Press. A constitutional court ruled the deal was binding on the next three governments, he said, adding that political and legal hurdles that leave little room to change the deal.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><span>"This accord wasn't made for the FARC," Santos said. "It was made for the local communities."</span></span></p><div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Here's the story of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Colombia?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Colombia</a> coca cultivation and eradication over the past 24 years, in one frustrating chart. (The UN 2017 coca estimate is unofficial, as reported in local media.) <a href="https://t.co/H1iO6OUgyl">pic.twitter.com/H1iO6OUgyl</a></p>- Adam Isacson  (@adam_wola) <a href="https://twitter.com/mims/statuses/1011325000631115776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 25, 2018</a></blockquote><script async="" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-coast-guard-bust-1-billion-worth-cocaine-2017-3">Here's what $1 billion worth of cocaine looks like</a></h3>        <div>            <iframe class="bijwplayerclass" data-player="jwplayer" src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/ot6bkK0T-CEZHWCBG.html" width="100%" height="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="auto" style="margin:0px;" allowfullscreen=""></iframe><script>function receiveMessage(event){ console.log(event.data.fullscreen); Android.fullscreen(event.data.fullscreen); }window.addEventListener("message", receiveMessage, false);</script>        </div>    </div></hr>

In the world's biggest cocaine producer, cultivation has hit an 'all time high' and the new president is vowing harsh measures that will please Trump

<p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5c7d0fab26289812795413d6-1800/ap19061021819698.jpg" border="0" alt="Guaidó in Argentina" data-mce-source="(Natacha Pisarenko/AP)" data-mce-caption="Venezuela's self-proclaimed interim president Juan Guaidó talks to supporters during his self-imposed exile in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Friday, March 1, 2019."><p class="source"><span>(Natacha Pisarenko/AP)</span></p><p class="caption">Venezuela's self-proclaimed interim president Juan Guaidó talks to supporters during his self-imposed exile in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on March 1, 2019.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div><ul class="summary-list"><li><strong>Venezuela's opposition leader and self-declared interim president, Juan Guaidó, is re-entering the country after a ten-day exile.</strong></li><li><strong>He risks arrest upon his return, and could face up to 30 years in prison.</strong></li><li><strong>Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's government put a travel ban on Guaidó after he declared himself interim president.</strong></li><li><strong>During his exile, Guaidó met with world leaders who support his opposition against Maduro.</strong></li></ul><p>Juan Guaidó, Venezuela's opposition leader and self-styled interim president, plans to return to his country on Monday, risking arrest and a 30-year prison term for breaking a government-ordered travel ban.</p><p>Guaidó told supporters in a <a href="https://twitter.com/jguaido/status/1102368341140926466">Periscope livestream on Sunday</a> that he will return to Venezuela on Monday, and to prepare for a new round of protests at 11 a.m. on Monday (10 a.m. EST).</p><p>Guaidó left Venezuela on February 22 and traveled around South America to meet world leaders who have pledged their support for him, including US Vice President Mike Pence and the presidents of Colombia, Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina and Ecuador.</p><p>He told <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/juan-guaido-if-maduro-arrests-me-it-would-be-a-coup-detat/2019/03/03/653acbae-3df9-11e9-9361-301ffb5bd5e6_story.html?utm_term=.11edccbef46a">The Washington Post</a> on Sunday that he left to organize the entry of humanitarian aid to Venezuela and to strategize with Latin American leaders.</p><p>It's not clear where he is now or how he will re-enter the country.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5c7d19da262898100a54d1f5-1200/venezuela%20guaido%20pence.jpg" border="0" alt="venezuela guaido pence" data-mce-source="Official White House Photo by D. Myles" data-mce-caption="Venezuela's Juan Guaidó, Colombian President Ivan Duque Marquez, and US Vice President Mike Pence meet at the Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores in Bogota, Colombia. on February 25, 2019."><p class="source"><span>Official White House Photo by D. Myles</span></p><p class="caption">Guaidó, Colombian President Ivan Duque Marquez, and US Vice President Mike Pence meet at the Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores in Bogota, Colombia. on February 25, 2019.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div><p>The beleaguered Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who has for weeks been facing calls for his resignation, has suggested that Guaidó could be returned upon entry. <span>"He will have to face justice, and justice prohibited him from leaving the country," he told <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/venezuelan-president-nicolas-maduros-defiant-interview-tom-llamas/story?id=61318540">ABC News</a> last week.</span></p><p><span>Juan Carlos Valdez, deputy judge of Venezuela's supreme court, also told <a href="https://sputniknews.com/latam/201902261072772000-guaido-may-face-30-years-for-breaching-travel-ban-supreme-court/">Sputnik News</a> that Guaidó may face up to 30 years in prison if he returns to Venezuela.</span></p><p>Guaidó acknowledged that his self-imposed exile could have consequences.&#xa0;&#xa0;</p><p>"If the regime dares to kidnap us, that will be the last mistake they make," Guaidó said in his Periscope video.</p><p>In his livestream, Guaidó said he had instructions in place to deal with an arrest. But he assured that no matter the outcome, his attempt to return will spark momentum.&#xa0;</p><p>"They can cut a flower but they will never stop the spring from coming," he said.</p><p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bio-juan-guaido-self-proclaimed-interim-president-of-venezuela-2019-1?r=US&amp;IR=T">Meet Juan Guaidó, the self-proclaimed interim president of Venezuela who's challenging Nicolás Maduro for power</a> &#xa0;</em></p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5c7d10f626289805fe262ae8-1600/ap19062654073597.jpg" border="0" alt="Colombia Venezuela migrants" data-mce-source="(Martin Mejia/AP)" data-mce-caption="A youth helps an elderly woman walk across the Tachira River into Colombia as people are forced to cross the border illegally due to the closure of the bridge by Venezuelan authorities near Cucuta, Colombia, Sunday, March 3, 2019."><p class="source"><span>(Martin Mejia/AP)</span></p><p class="caption">People walk across the Tachira River from Venezuela into Colombia. People have been forced to cross the Venezuela-Colombia border illegally after Venezuelan authorities closed a bridge into Cucuta, Colombia.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div><p>The threats mark the latest standoff between Maduro's socialist regime and its opposition in an increasingly tense tug-of-war to control the government. Venezuela is engulfed in a humanitarian crisis, with severe food and medicine shortages driving <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/02/1033361">millions of refugees</a> abroad.</p><p>In January, Guaidó, the virtually unknown leader of the opposition-controlled National Assembly, declared himself the interim president of Venezuela, saying Maduro's reelection was <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bio-juan-guaido-self-proclaimed-interim-president-of-venezuela-2019-1?r=US&amp;IR=T">fraudulent</a>.</p><p>The US and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/venezuela-almost-all-latin-america-like-trump-supports-maduro-rival-2019-1">most of Latin America</a> immediately recognized Guaidó Venezuela's official interim president, and most countries in the Western hemisphere followed suit.</p><p>Maduro responded by <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nicolas-maduro-tells-us-diplomats-leave-venezuela-24-hours-2019-1">severing all diplomatic ties with the US</a>. He also prohibited Guaidó from leaving the country and froze his assets, saying that the government was investigating him for trying to "usurp" power, <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2019/01/29/actualidad/1548778972_796341.html">El Pais reported</a>.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5c66bb761631a3748c12b897-1200/venezuela%20nicolas%20maduro.jpg" border="0" alt="venezuela nicolas maduro" data-mce-source="Ariana Cubillos/AP" data-mce-caption="Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro speaks during an interview with The Associated Press at Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela, on February 14, 2019."><p class="source"><span>Ariana Cubillos/AP</span></p><p class="caption">Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro at Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela, on February 14, 2019.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div><p>&#xa0;</p><h2>Guaidó's plans to take over Venezuela</h2><p>In his Sunday interview with The Washington Post, Guaidó suggested three possible scenarios to take control of the government: Through free elections; a sui-generis transition in which the opposition relies on the constitution to gain control; or a military rebellion.</p><p>Guaidó refused to call military intervention a "military coup," but said it "ceasing the usurpation."</p><p>While Venezuelan military leaders declared their loyalty to Maduro last month, more than 500 soldiers mostly from lower and middle ranks defected to Colombia last week <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/venezuela-soldiers-defect-to-colombia-threaten-maduro-power-2019-3">in a sign that Maduro's once rock-solid power base is crumbling</a>.</p><p><strong><em>Read more: </em></strong><em><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/venezuelan-soldiers-reasons-explain-why-they-desert-and-turn-on-nicolas-maduro-2019-3">The 'king-maker' keeping Nicolas Maduro in power is starting to crack - here's why Venezuela's soldiers are breaking ranks, in their own words</a></em></p><p>The US doubled down on its support for Guaidó on Sunday, with National Security Advisor John Bolton <a href="https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton/status/1102388069846663169">tweeting</a>: "Any threats or acts against his safe return will be met a strong and significant response from the United States and the international community."</p><div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Rendición de cuentas. Próximas acciones.z1@ <a href="https://t.co/gOZvMInJZS">https://t.co/gOZvMInJZS</a></p>- Juan Guaidó  (@jguaido) <a href="https://twitter.com/mims/statuses/1102368341140926466?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 4, 2019</a></blockquote><script async="" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/twin-brothers-chicago-helped-take-down-el-chapo-margarito-pedro-flores-wives-cocaine-traffickers2017-6">The wives of high-level cocaine traffickers reveal how their husbands took down 'El Chapo'</a></h3>        <div>            <iframe class="bijwplayerclass" data-player="jwplayer" src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/itx8IEnZ-CEZHWCBG.html" width="100%" height="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="auto" style="margin:0px;" allowfullscreen=""></iframe><script>function receiveMessage(event){ console.log(event.data.fullscreen); Android.fullscreen(event.data.fullscreen); }window.addEventListener("message", receiveMessage, false);</script>        </div>    </div>

Juan Guaido is heading back to Venezuela after a 10-day exile - despite threats of arrest and 30 years in jail if he crosses the border

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5ba688f14e353e582d8b456c-1400/ap17318722854952.jpg" border="0" alt="Venezuela Donald Trump graffiti Nazi swastika" data-mce-source="AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos" data-mce-caption="A mural of US President Donald Trump depicting him wearing a Nazi swastika on a wall along a sidewalk in Caracas, Venezuela, next to the Spanish message: &amp;quotWe are those of peace,&quot; November 14, 2017." /><p class="source"><span>AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos</span></p><p class="caption">A mural of President Donald Trump, showing him wearing a Nazi swastika, in Caracas, next to the Spanish message: "We are those of peace," November 14, 2017.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul class="summary-list"><li><strong>Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in taking military action in Venezuela.</strong></li><li><strong>Experts and officials from around the region have rebuffed such action, with some comparing it to the invasion of Iraq.</strong></li><li><strong>But others have held out military action, as part of a collective response, as an option of last resort.</strong></li></ul><p><br />President Donald Trump's unexpected declaration in August 2017 that he was "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-im-not-going-to-rule-out-a-military-option-for-venezuela-2017-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">not going to rule out a military option</a><span>" in Venezuela <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-military-action-on-venezuela-could-be-counterproductive-2017-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">earned swift rebuke</a> both inside and outside the US.</span></p><p><span>But in the year since the US has kept pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government, punishing dozens of officials with sanctions but sparing others <a href="https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/white-house/article215251450.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in a gambit</a> to stoke tensions in Caracas.</span></p><p><span>Trump has <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ap-us-official-trump-pressed-aides-about-venezuela-invasion-2018-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly pressed</a> his advisers and Latin American leaders about military action, citing what he believed to be past successful US-led interventions, and officials from his administration met with, but ultimately <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-administration-met-with-but-rebuffed-venezuelan-officers-who-said-they-were-plotting-a-coup-officials-say/2018/09/08/aa7a2804-b398-11e8-a20b-5f4f84429666_story.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rebuffed</a>, Venezuelan officials looking for help to depose Maduro.</span></p><p><span>In recent weeks, voices outside the White House have invoked US military action an option to address a crisis that has only worsened.</span></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5a838ff25124c9683333cbcf-800/lima-group-countries-criticize-venezuela-election-date.jpg" border="0" alt="FILE PHOTO: Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro speaks during an event with supporters of Somos Venezuela (We are Venezuela) movement in Caracas, Venezuela February 7, 2018. REUTERS/Marco Bello" data-mce-source="Thomson Reuters" data-mce-caption="Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro speaks during an event with supporters of Somos Venezuela (We are Venezuela) movement in Caracas" /><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro at an event in Caracas, February 7, 2018.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p><span>In late August, a day after meeting with national-security adviser John Bolton, Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio - a close Trump adviser on Latin American issues - <a href="https://www.infobae.com/america/venezuela/2018/08/30/marco-rubio-no-descarto-la-opcion-militar-de-eeuu-en-venezuela-las-circunstancias-han-cambiado/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said he believed</a> Venezuela had become a destabilizing force.</span></p><p><span>"I believe that the armed forces of the United States are only used in the case of a threat to national security," Rubio said, adding that he believed there was a "very strong" argument that "Venezuela and the Maduro regime have become a threat to the region and to the United States."</span></p><p><span>The region has taken some action to isolate Maduro, but the idea of US intervention has been widely rejected.</span></p><p><span>Government repression and deepening misery in Venezuela warrant a push for political change, according to Shannon O'Neil, a senior fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.</span></p><p>"But US military intervention is not the way to do it," O'Neil <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-17/a-u-s-military-intervention-in-venezuela-would-be-a-disaster" target="_blank" rel="noopener">argued</a> this month. "Venezuela isn't Grenada or Panama, the two Latin American countries invaded by the US during the closing days of the Cold War."</p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5a1ff6495124c9c2198b84c6-800/year-of-protests-and-crisis-in-volatile-venezuela.jpg" border="0" alt="A demonstrator is detained at a rally during a strike called to protest against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government in Caracas, Venezuela, July 27, 2017. Ueslei Marcelino: " name="" data-mce-source="Thomson Reuters" data-mce-caption="Pictures of the Year: Venezuela crisis" /><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">A demonstrator is detained at protest against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government in Caracas, July 27, 2017.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p>Such action would require a US commitment on the scale of the invasion of Iraq, a country half the size of Venezuela with slightly more people.</p><p>"<span>Any invasion requires preparations on a similar scale, meaning a 100,000-plus force," O'Neil writes.<br /></span></p><p>Polling indicates US troops wouldn't be welcomed in Venezuela, O'Neil said, and political divides and deteriorated infrastructure mean any recovery effort would be a long one.</p><p>Retired US Navy Adm. James Stavridis, who led US Southern Command, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-12/suffering-venezuelans-need-the-u-s-to-stay-hands-off" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> this month that the "Trump administration needs to avoid anything that smacks of unilateral US military action."</p><p>The US should instead boost interagency coordination and encourage greater involvement by other countries, Stavridis said.</p><p><span>"All of the major countries of the hemisphere, particularly Venezuela's immediate neighbors, need to coordinate and come to an agreement on an appropriate response today and if and how to escalate that response if necessary in the future," James Bosworth, founder of political-risk-analysis firm Hxagon, told Business Insider. </span></p><p><span>"The US should definitely not act alone."</span></p><h2><span>'Too late and too innocent'</span></h2><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5a81ff3bd0307225008b463c-1400/rtx4jgj4.jpg" border="0" alt="Colombia Venezuela border migrants" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins" data-mce-caption="Colombian police officers stand in front of people queueing to try to cross into Colombia from Venezuela through Simon Bolivar international bridge in Cucuta, Colombia, January 24, 2018." /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins</span></p><p class="caption">Colombian police officers stand in front of people queueing to try to cross into Colombia from Venezuela through Simon Bolivar international bridge in Cucuta, Colombia, January 24, 2018.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p>While many argue against unilateral US action, military action in some form has been held out as an option.</p><p>During a visit this month to Cucuta - <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/venezuelans-fleeing-hardship-at-home-are-finding-more-struggles-abroad-2018-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ground zero for Venezuelan migration into Colombia</a> - Luis Almargo, head of the Organization of American States, accused Maduro of crimes against humanity and argued for keeping military action on the table.</p><p><span>"With respect to a military intervention to overthrow Nicolas Maduro's regime, I don't think any option should be ruled out," Almargo <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/oas-chief-threatens-military-force-against-venezuela/2018/09/15/158e5b3e-b8a7-11e8-ae4f-2c1439c96d79_story.html?utm_term=.b1207c7c9b7c" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a>. "Diplomatic actions should be the first priority but we shouldn't rule out any action."</span></p><p><span>Almargo <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/luis-almagro-venezuela-cant-become-another-rwanda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">later acknowledged</a> there was little appetite for intervention but stressed that the responsibility-to-protect doctrine obligated the international community to respond, citing the case of Rwanda as a failure do so.</span><span></span></p><p><span>Francisco Santos, Colombia's ambassador to the US, <a href="https://www.elespectador.com/noticias/el-mundo/las-polemicas-declaraciones-de-pacho-santos-en-washington-sobre-venezuela-articulo-812888" target="_blank" rel="noopener">echoed</a> Almargo a few days later, stressing the need for a collective response</span>. (Colombian President Ivan Duque, a hardliner on Venezuela, has said US intervention "<a href="http://www.notimerica.com/politica/noticia-duque-cree-intervencion-militar-eeuu-venezuela-no-camino-solucionar-crisis-20180904131040.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is not the way</a>.")</p><p>"But we believe, and let me be very clear, that all the options should be considered," Santos said, calling for more pressure on Maduro. "It is already too late and too innocent to think that this will be solved without a change of regime."</p><h2><span>'Almost nobody wants a military intervention'</span></h2><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5b7a9dd48ea82fa1278b4dc5-1566/2018-08-18t175013z331931267rc1376c82670rtrmadp3venezuela-economy.jpg" border="0" alt="People walk past a graffiti that reads: " data-mce-source="REUTERS/Marco Bello" data-mce-caption="People walk past a graffiti that reads: &amp;quotMaduro, misery&quot; in Caracas, Venezuela August 18, 2018." data-link="https://www.reutersconnect.com/all?id=tag%3Areuters.com%2C2018%3Anewsml_RC1376C82670%3A331931267&amp;search=all%3Avenezuela" /><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.reutersconnect.com/all?id=tag%3Areuters.com%2C2018%3Anewsml_RC1376C82670%3A331931267&amp;search=all%3Avenezuela">REUTERS/Marco Bello</a></span></p><p class="caption">People walk past a graffiti that says "Maduro, misery" in Caracas, August 18, 2018.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p><span>Given Maduro's abuses - including repressing peaceful protest and using access to food to control the public - Almargo was correct to say the responsibility-to-protect doctrine held out military action if other responses fail, Bosworth said.</span></p><p>But that doctrine calls for a "collectively coordinated effort" and is clear that non-military options to protect Venezuelans "are preferred and must be attempted first," he added.</p><p><span>"Almost nobody wants a military intervention in Venezuela. It's unfortunate that we've wasted the last few weeks arguing over whether intervention is 'on the table' ... rather than discussing other non-military ways to pressure Maduro," Bosworth said. </span></p><p><span>"Those non-military options are where we should be focused right now."</span></p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5a81f68dd030721b008b4623-1400/rtx4u3w6.jpg" border="0" alt="Colombia soldier border Venezuela" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Javier Andres Rojas" data-mce-caption="A Colombian soldier guards the border with Venezuela in Cucuta, Colombia, February 9, 2018." /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Javier Andres Rojas</span></p><p class="caption">A Colombian soldier guards the border with Venezuela in Cucuta, Colombia, February 9, 2018.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p><span>Others in the region have expressed a continued commitment to a peaceful solution.</span></p><p><span>In a statement issued after Almargo's comments, 11 of </span><span>14 members of the Lima Group, formed in 2017 to address the situation in Venezuela, rejected military action and reiterated its commitment to a "<a href="https://www.gob.pe/institucion/rree/noticias/19021-declaracion-del-grupo-de-lima" target="_blank" rel="noopener">peaceful and negotiated</a>" resolution. (Colombia did not sign the statement, thought it said it agreed with its "<a href="https://twitter.com/GRamsey_LatAm/status/1041442287639830528" target="_blank" rel="noopener">purposes</a>.")</span></p><p><span>In Uruguay, where Almargo was foreign minister, the government and the opposition united to reject intervention. </span></p><p><span>"If there is a word that Uruguay detests," <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2018/09/20/america/1537465809_295673.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> Foreign Minister Rodolfo Nin Novoa, "it's intervention."</span></p><p><span>Brazil also distanced itself from Almargo. </span></p><p><span>"We don't see [as] viable any other type of mechanism, like the use of military means or force, in order to solve the problem of Venezuela," Brazil's <keyword id="6354810" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="defense">defense</keyword> minister <a href="http://www.eluniversal.com/politica/21244/brasil-descarto-intervencion-en-venezuela-y-sigue-apostando-en-el-dialogo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> this week.</span></p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/591e1f4e63914721008b4de2-2400/rtx36huh.jpg" border="0" alt="Juan Manuel Santos Donald Trump" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Yuri Gripas" data-mce-caption="President Donald Trump and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos speak during a joint news conference at the White House in Washington, May 18, 2017." /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Yuri Gripas</span></p><p class="caption">President Donald Trump and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos speak during a joint news conference at the White House in Washington, May 18, 2017.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p><span>Geoff Ramsey, assistant director of the Venezuela program at the Washington Office on Latin America, said discussing intervention was likely to change little in Caracas.</span></p><p><span>"I think those pushing this rhetoric know it's an empty threat, but for some reason think it's a useful pressure tactic," Ramsey <a href="https://twitter.com/GRamsey_LatAm/status/1042812447638413312" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said on Twitter</a>.</span></p><p><span>Venezuela's government likely doesn't buy into US threats, as Caracas "is not ignorant" of how unpopular such action would be at home, he added.</span></p><p><span>While resistance to action on the ground in Venezuela remains widespread, the Trump administration has promised more action to isolate Maduro's government.</span></p><p><span>"You'll see in the coming days a series of actions that continue to increase the pressure level against the Venezuelan leadership folks, who are working directly against the best interest of the Venezuelan people," Secretary of State Mike Pompeo <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/r-us-preparing-actions-in-coming-days-against-venezuela-pompeo-to-fox-news-2018-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said on Friday</a>.</span></p><p><span>Pompeo did not elaborate but said the US is "</span><span>determined to ensure that the Venezuelan people get their say."</span></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/venezuela-was-latin-americas-richest-country-heres-how-it-fell-apart-2017-7">Venezuela was Latin America's richest country and now it is in complete crisis - here's how it fell apart</a></h3>        <div>            <iframe class="bijwplayerclass" data-player="jwplayer" src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/OYA3woRt-CEZHWCBG.html" width="100%" height="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="auto" style="margin:0px;" allowfullscreen=""></iframe><script>function receiveMessage(event){ console.log(event.data.fullscreen); Android.fullscreen(event.data.fullscreen); }window.addEventListener("message", receiveMessage, false);</script>        </div>    </div>

You Searched For "ivan duque" and got 10 results

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