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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks have rallied since Trump won the election as traders expect his policies to drive growth.</li><li>But the market is confusing positive conditions from Trump's first term with current reality, a research firm said.</li></ul>The market is wrong to expect another period of outsize growth under Donald Trump, and should dial back risk as a result, BCA Research says.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11?_gl=1*ovl9fb*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTkzMzI0Ny40MTcuMS4xNzMxOTM1MTQ1LjQyLjAuMA..">Stocks have rallied</a> nearly across the board since <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">Trump</a> won the election earlier this month, with the S&amp;P 500 up nearly 2% since Election Day and stock exposure hitting an 11-year high. Traders are betting Trump's proposals for broad deregulation and corporate tax cuts will boost corporate earnings, particularly among so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-trump-win-election-financials-energy-rbc-2024-10?_gl=1*1hmjfnh*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTkzMzI0Ny40MTcuMS4xNzMxOTM1MTkxLjYwLjAuMA..">Trump trades</a> like bank stocks.But the research firm says those proposed policies might not prove as big of a boost to the market as they did when Trump first entered the White House."The market is expecting Trump to enact a flurry of policies that will unleash a year of growth like 2017. But we believe the consensus is wrong," strategist Juan Correa said, pointing to a starkly different economic backdrop this time around versus at the start of his first term.When Trump entered the White House in 2017, he was met with rising inflation and the start of a hiking cycle from the Federal Reserve. This time, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stanley-druckenmiller-fed-rate-cuts-inflation-1970s-trump-election-fomc-2024-11">inflation</a> is coming down, as has rates. That makes the Fed's focus pinned on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://businessinsider.com/next-fed-rate-cut-forecast-jumbo-unemployment-labor-market-citi-2024-11">labor market</a>, which has started showing signs of deterioration, Correa says.Meanwhile, global growth appears to be on the downward slide. China's stimulus hasn't been enough to boost its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-housing-property-stimulus-economic-growth-goldman-sachs-2024-10">property sector</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-is-experiencing-factory-boom-but-finding-workers-is-difficult-2023-7">manufacturing employment</a> remains tepid with the ISM manufacturing index under 50, while in 2017 it neared 60 and was already beginning to accelerate well before Trump's win."Those betting on a 2017 scenario are doing so based on data from eight years ago," Correa said.Some investors may argue that Trump's policies could reverse those macro trends, with pro-growth and inflationary policies like he implemented in his first term, and that those might be especially possible to enact with a Republican-controlled Congress.But that is likely an overestimate, Correa says. In his mind, it isn't clear that Trump's tax cuts were actually at the heart of economic growth in 2017. He thinks that generating additional growth through government spending will be harder this time around. With such large deficits already, it's unlikely there will be such a big increase from current levels, and projections for fiscal force next year are already negative, he said.In short, traders are looking at Trump through the lens of his past term, rather than the odds stacked against him now."Investors are playing the man and not the macro. Even worse, they are playing not the man today but the man from eight years ago. As a result, several assets are overextended in our view," Correa said, pointing to small caps, the dollar and risk assets.Correa recommends positioning defensively instead, out of stocks and into bonds."We remain underweight equities and are defensively positioned. Bonds are offering outstanding value. Even in the event of a soft landing, 10-year Treasurys would return 12% from current levels over the next year," he said.

The market is too confident about Trump, and investors should play defense instead, research firm says

In recent years, <keyword id="19902194" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anil-Ambani" source="keywords">Anil Ambani</keyword>'s <keyword id="20479923" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reliance-Group" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reliance Group" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Reliance Group">Reliance Group</keyword> has seen marquee firms being auctioned in insolvency proceedings and piling debt-fold businesses. But the group has, in the week gone by, made announcements that investors believe may mark its transformation. In three days -- from September 18 to September 20 -- the group announced it has turned into nearly zero debt and is implementing long-term fundraising plans that are said to solidify its financial position. <keyword id="20144587" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reliance-Infrastructure" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reliance Infrastructure" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Reliance Infrastructure">Reliance Infrastructure</keyword>'s board approved <keyword id="20431799" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fund-raising" source="keywords">fund raising</keyword> of up to Rs 6,000 crore via preferential issue and QIP, while <keyword id="20024191" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reliance-Power" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reliance Power" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Reliance Power">Reliance Power</keyword> board is meeting on September 23 to consider and approve the fundraise via multiple routes. The speed at which Anil Ambani moved to clear the debt of his companies, and simultaneously announce and execute the fund raising plans for future expansion of his companies, has surprised the investors. Shares of both firms surged on stock markets. The announcement to invest Rs 1,100 crore by the promoters group in Anil Ambani's flagship company, Reliance Infrastructure, has further boosted the confidence of investors in the group's revival plans and its long-term growth story, investors said. Anil Ambani's twin strategy of <keyword id="21440133" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="debt-reduction" source="keywords">debt reduction</keyword>, coupled with fresh capital raising, has set the stage for a long-term transformation of the Reliance Group, they feel. Reliance Infrastructure's <keyword id="20000950" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="market-capitalisation" source="keywords">market capitalisation</keyword> by the end of this week surged nearly 50%, rising from Rs 8,500 crore to Rs 12,500 crore. Similarly, Reliance Power's market capitalisation increased over 25%, moving from Rs 11,500 crore to Rs 14,600 crore. Reliance Infra announced a significant reduction in standalone external debt, lowering it from Rs 3,831 crore to just Rs 475 crore. This was achieved by clearing outstanding dues to prominent lenders such as Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), Edelweiss ARC, ICICI Bank, and Union Bank, according to company filings. The move signals a robust financial recovery and enhances Reliance Infra's financial flexibility. Also, Reliance Infra board approved a preferential issue to raise Rs 3,014 crore, increasing the stake of Risee Infinity Pvt Ltd, a promoter group entity, along with other investors such as Florintree Innovation LLP and Fortune Financial &amp; Equities Services Pvt Ltd. The board also approved seeking shareholder authorization to raise an additional Rs 3,000 crore via a qualified institutional placement. This will provide further capital to strengthen the balance sheet and invest in new growth opportunities. With these fund infusions, Reliance Infra's net worth is set to rise from over Rs 9,000 crore to more than Rs 12,000 crore, according to the filings. The company is now well-positioned to invest in high-growth sectors, investors said.

Anil Ambani's Reliance Group starts transformation journey, achieves near zero-debt

Both <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> and <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> regained their mojo back on the final trading session of the week. While Sensex zoomed 1,330.96 points to close the week at over 80,000 (80,436.84 points), Nifty inched up 1.65% to close the day at 24,541.15 points. Out of the 50 Nifty stocks, 47 saw advances, while only 3 declined as of August 16th, 2024. <keyword id="19945574" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Wipro" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Wipro" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Wipro">Wipro</keyword> (up by 4.23%), Tech Mahindra (up by 3.98%), Grasim (up by 3.65%), Mahindra and Mahindra (up by 3.45%) and Tata Motors (up by 3.36%) were amongst the biggest gainers during the day. On the other hand, Divis Labs (down by 0.62%), SBI Life (down by 0.07%) and Dr. Reddy (down by 0.02%) were amidst the leading laggards. Out of the 2,797 stocks traded during the day, 1,872 saw advances, while 845 declined and another 80 remained unchanged. 95 stocks hit their 52-week high price, while 31 stocks also hit their 52-week lows. 112 stocks hit the upper circuit, or the maximum permissible trading price of a security during a single trading session. This included <keyword id="19945904" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ola" source="keywords">Ola</keyword>, which was up by 20%, Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (up by 10%) and Jindal Poly Films (up by 17.75%). 76 stocks also hit the lower circuit, which included names like MTNL, Dolphin, DCX Systems and more. Most broad market indices closed the day in green, with Nifty Next 50 inching up by 1.82%, Nifty 100 up by 1.66%, Nifty mid cap 50 up by 2.03%, Nifty small cap 50 up by 2.24% and micro caps up by 2.07%. The only exception to this was India VIX, which slipped by 6.68%. Amidst sectoral indices, banks rose by 1.59%, auto was up by 2.01%, financial services was up by 1.7% and FMCG was up by 1.48%. IT (up by 2.89%), media (up by 2.09%) and realty (up by 2.49%) inched up over 2% during the day, while metals and consumer durables moved up by 1% each. Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd notes that Indian markets joined the <keyword id="21476120" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-rally" source="keywords">global rally</keyword> today, rebounding after a brief period of underperformance driven by <keyword id="19950996" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FIIs" source="keywords">FIIs</keyword>' selling in both the cash and F&amp;O segments. Concerns over slightly weaker earnings, high valuations, and the Hindenburg issue had weighed on the market recently. However, a shift in global sentiment from panic to optimism has fueled today's upturn. "Several factors have contributed to this <keyword id="20016146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bullish-momentum" source="keywords">bullish momentum</keyword>. The fear of a reversal in the yen carry trade has subsided, and strong retail sales figures, along with better-than-expected job data, have alleviated concerns about a potential U.S. recession. Additionally, the market is now fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September, further boosting <keyword id="20322632" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investor-confidence" source="keywords">investor confidence</keyword>. If the Nifty can sustain above its 20-DMA, around 24,500, the bullish momentum could extend towards the 24,800-25,000 zone. On the downside, the 24,200 level now serves as a key support", he continued. Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd noted that markets staged a robust recovery on Friday, gaining nearly 1.5%, driven by positive global cues. After opening with a gap-up, the Nifty initially lost all its gains in the early hours but rebounded due to strong buying interest in select heavyweight stocks. As a result, the Nifty decisively crossed the resistance at 24,400, closing near the day's high at 24,541.15. The rally was broad-based across sectors, with IT, realty, and auto stocks leading the gains. The broader indices also showed a solid recovery, each advancing nearly 2%. "With the Nifty breaking out of its consolidation phase, it appears poised to close the gap around the 24,700 level. If there is any dip, the 24,300-24,400 zone should provide support. We recommend aligning trades with a focus on stock picking. In the absence of any major domestic triggers, attention will remain on global market performance for further cues", said Mishra.

Stock market closing: Sensex climbs over 1,000 points to close the week, Nifty ends the day at over 24k mark

Rupee appreciated 7 paise to 84.22 against the US dollar in morning trade on Tuesday, on a sharp rebound in domestic equities amid improved investor risk appetite. Forex traders said the <keyword id="21663515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MSCI-equity-index" source="keywords">MSCI equity index</keyword> rebalancing significantly boosted sentiment for Indian equity markets as <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword> broke a 40-session streak of net selling by purchasing Rs 9,947 crores on Monday, lending robust support to the rupee. Moreover, the win by the incumbent government in Maharashtra, further fueled investor confidence in economic stability, sparking a rally in equity markets. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.27 and moved in a tight range and touched an early high of 84.22 against the greenback, registering a gain of 7 paise over its previous close. On Monday, the rupee appreciated 12 paise to close at 84.29 against US dollar. "While Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies loom large, the rupee's outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s projection of a GDP growth rebound to 7.6 per cent in Q3 has infused fresh confidence in India's economic trajectory. Additionally, a surge in capital inflows is likely to provide robust support," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further said that the RBI's vigilant stance will be critical in managing volatility, with interventions likely at key levels to maintain stability. "Given the factors, the USDINR pair appears to face resistance around the 84.50 level, with expectations of trading within a range of 83.80 to 84.50, leaning toward a downside bias," he said. On the global front, US Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent's fiscal deficit reduction agenda capped US Treasury yields, Pabari said. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.28 per cent at 107.11. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.33 per cent to USD 73.25 per barrel in futures trade. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share equity benchmark Sensex jumped 167.76 points or 0.21 per cent to 80,277.61 points in early trade, while Nifty jumped 55.80 points or 0.23 per cent to 24,277.70 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, purchasing shares worth Rs 9,947.55 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank">OnePlus Open OxygenOS 15 update now rolling out with Flux Themes, improved AI features and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank">Microsoft’s AI-powered Recall feature is now rolling out to Copilot+ PCs</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank">Jio, Airtel and Vi lost nearly 11 million subscribers in September 2024</a>

Rupee rises 7 paise to 84.22 against US dollar in early trade

Recently, the National Stock Exchange (<keyword id="20004725" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="NSE" source="keywords">NSE</keyword>) announced that its total <keyword id="21953893" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="client-accounts" source="keywords">client accounts</keyword> exceeded 20 crore, a remarkable growth from the 16.9 crore figure it was at just eight months ago. The achievement underscores India's rapidly evolving investment landscape and growing <keyword id="20031464" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-participation" source="keywords">retail participation</keyword> in <keyword id="20033427" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="capital-markets" source="keywords">capital markets</keyword>. "This expansion reflects strong investor confidence in India's growth story," said Sriram Krishnan, Chief Business Development Officer at NSE. He attributed this growth to the widespread adoption of mobile trading applications and increasing <keyword id="22504349" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investor-awareness" source="keywords">investor awareness</keyword>, aptly supported by government <keyword id="20327350" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-initiatives" source="keywords">digital initiatives</keyword> that have democratized market access, particularly benefiting investors from Tier 2, 3, and 4 cities. While Maharashtra led the list with 3.6 crore accounts, UP was next with 2.2 crore accounts, followed by Gujarat with 1.8 crore accounts. Rajasthan and West Bengal also made it to the list with 1.2 crore accounts each. Notably, these five states collectively account for approximately 50% of total client accounts, while the top ten states represent about three-quarters of the total registrations. Additionally, the unique registered investor base on NSE stood at 10.5 crore, having crossed the 10-crore mark on August 8, 2024. <h2><keyword id="20849031" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="young-investors" source="keywords">Young investors</keyword> take the lead</h2>Another notable trend that emerged from NSE's latest report is the significant increase in young investor participation. The proportion of investors under 30 years has nearly doubled, rising from 22.9% in March 2018 to 40% by September 2024. Middle-aged investors, aged between 30 and 39, have maintained their participation in the markets, albeit with a slight hit. On the other hand, investors aged between 40 and 49 have witnessed a dip in market participation, dipping to 15.5% in September 2024, as opposed to 20.3% as of March 2018. Similar downtrends were noticed in other age brackets as well, namely 50-59 and 60+ age cohorts. Financial analysts suggest that younger investors bring a new dynamic to the market, often favoring high-growth, technology-driven investments. In contrast, older investors have traditionally leaned toward more stable and conservative options.

NSE client base surges past 20 crore mark; young investors lead market growth

<keyword id="19900617" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stock-markets" source="keywords">Stock markets</keyword> showed resilience on Monday, closing in green after a flat and negative start to the trading day. The benchmark indices, <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> and <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword>, rebounded from intraday lows, driven by significant gains in the auto and pharmaceutical sectors. The BSE Sensex ended the day with an uptick of 131.18 points closing at 77,341.08. Meanwhile, the broader NSE Nifty 50 climbed 36.75 points to finish at 23,537.85. Both indices initially opened on a cautious note but gathered momentum as the day progressed, reflecting renewed <keyword id="20322632" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investor-confidence" source="keywords">investor confidence</keyword>. Throughout the trading session, volatility was a defining feature, with sectors like Auto, <keyword id="19933821" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pharma" source="keywords">Pharma</keyword>, and FMCG showing notable strength. The Nifty <keyword id="19979339" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="auto-sector" source="keywords">Auto sector</keyword> registered gains of 0.44 per cent, while the Pharma sector increased by 0.39 per cent, and FMCG surged by 0.53 per cent. These sectors' performance was instrumental in counterbalancing the losses experienced in the Media sector, which faced a steep decline of over 1 per cent. In the broader markets, the Nifty SmallCap index edged up by a modest 0.06 per cent, and the Nifty MidCap index saw a more robust increase of 0.18 per cent. These movements underscore a cautiously optimistic sentiment among investors, who are showing a selective preference for mid and small-cap stocks amidst broader market uncertainties. The Nifty 50 index saw 30 stocks advancing while 20 declined, indicating a mixed yet overall positive <keyword id="20127603" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="market-sentiment" source="keywords">market sentiment</keyword>. Among the top performers were <keyword id="19993913" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mahindra-Mahindra" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Mahindra &amp; Mahindra" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Mahindra &amp; Mahindra">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra</keyword> (M&amp;M), Shriram Finance, Grasim Industries, Power Grid Corporation, and Sun Pharma. M&amp;M benefited from a buoyant auto sector, while Shriram Finance posted strong gains, contributing to the positive momentum in financial services. Grasim Industries gained due to optimism in the industrial and chemical sectors, and Power Grid Corporation saw a boost from expectations of increased infrastructure spending. Sun Pharma, a key player in the <keyword id="20598346" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pharmaceutical-sector" source="keywords">pharmaceutical sector</keyword>, ended the day on a high note, reflecting the sector's overall strength. On the downside, notable laggards included IndusInd Bank, Cipla, AdPorts and SEZ, Coal India, and Tata Steel. IndusInd Bank suffered from profit-taking and sector-specific challenges, while Cipla faced selling pressure despite the sector's gains. Adani Ports and SEZ experienced a downturn due to broader market concerns over port operations, Coal India declined amid global pressures on fossil fuels, and Tata Steel faced challenges in the metals and mining sector. Technical analysis suggests that the Nifty has been consolidating within a range of 23,300 to 23,600, indicating a phase of indecisiveness among investors. Market analysts predict that a breakout above 23,600 could propel the index towards the 24,000 mark in the short term, signaling a bullish sentiment. Conversely, a drop below 23,300 might lead to a downside correction towards 22,750. Globally, markets presented mixed cues with European shares posting gains, driven by strength in the automobile and banking sectors. In contrast, Bitcoin experienced a sudden 4 per cent decline, trading at $61,094, highlighting ongoing volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Varun Aggarwal, founder and managing director, Profit Idea, said, "Oil prices edged higher, fueled by expectations of increased demand during the summer months and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Investor sentiment was bolstered by positive economic indicators, including stable industrial output and optimistic forecasts for the upcoming monsoon season. However, concerns over a potential global economic slowdown and rising inflation continue to loom, keeping investors cautious." Despite a rocky start, Indian stock markets managed to close on a positive note, driven by sector-specific gains and encouraging global cues. Investors will be closely monitoring further market signals and <keyword id="22037163" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-developments" source="keywords">economic developments</keyword> in the coming days.

Stock markets end on positive note despite early setbacks

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stock indexes rose on Thursday as investors took in the latest jobless claims data. </li><li>Jobless claims from last week dropped 17,000, marking the biggest fall in claims in almost a year.</li></ul>US stocks rose Thursday as investors were met with better-than-expected jobs data.Last week's jobless claims fell 17,000 to 233,000, down from an 11-month high of 250,000 the week prior, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf">Labor Department data</a> released Thursday.That's the biggest fall in unemployment filings in almost a year, clocking in below estimates of 240,000. The reading should give investors greater confidence in the labor market after last week's weak nonfarm payroll report for July sparked fresh concerns about a looming recession. The data "could provide a boost for the market," Chris Zaccarelli, CIO for Independent Advisor Alliance, said in a Thursday note."The signs of slowing growth are obvious to all who care to look, but with a starting point of +2.8% GDP growth, it's hard to believe a recession has already begun. We are exercising caution but think that the panic that started earlier in the month was overblown," he added.The 10-year Treasury yield rose after the report, increasing three basis points rise above 4%. The data comes after last week's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-job-growth-july-labor-market-economic-data-2024-7">disappointing jobs report</a> and a surprise rate hike from the Bank of Japan fueled a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-picks-up-recession-fears-carry-trade-unwind-2024-8?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">historic three-day sell-off</a> through Monday.Investors remain focused on the Fed's next move and are currently pricing in a 100% chance of rate cuts in September, according to the<a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html"> CME FedWatch tool</a>. Some economists called for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-recession-outlook-economy-job-market-interest-rates-2024-8">emergency rate cuts</a> earlier this week, but <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/emergency-rate-cut-fed-recession-july-jobs-report-unemployment-powell-2024-8">experts say the Fed will likely wait</a> until September.Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts said they expect a 35% chance of a recession by the end of the year, up from their earlier figure of 25% at the start of July.The next big data point for investors will be next week's inflation reading, with the July consumer price index report set to be released on August 14. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,252.13, up 1.10%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,039.91, up 0.71% (+276 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 16,371.53, up 1.08%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li>After a historic sell-off rocked markets earlier this week, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-economy-recession-yen-nvidia-jobs-fed-rates-2024-8">some experts expect the market turmoil to continue, while others say it was a blip</a>.</li><li>Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway now <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/warren-buffett-owns-more-t-bills-yields-federal-reserve-berkshire-2024-8">owns more short-term Treasurys than the Fed</a>. </li><li>US oil production <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-production-record-high-wti-crude-prices-energy-gas-2024-8">hit a record of 13.4 million barrels per day last week</a>, up from 12.6 million barrels each day a year ago.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures were lower. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">WTI crude</a> was down slightly to $75.20 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 0.1% to $78.18 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose 1.23% to $2,412.05 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield increased three basis points to 4.003%. </li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 0.37% to $57,592.39.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes climb as drop in jobless claims boosts investors' confidence

Union Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> highlighted India's significant progress in electrification, <keyword id="23692737" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="water-accessibility" source="keywords">water accessibility</keyword>, and <keyword id="20879840" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-empowerment" source="keywords">economic empowerment</keyword> during a fireside chat with John J Hamre, President and CEO of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in Washington, DC. Highlighting the progress made in <keyword id="23003732" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-electrification" source="keywords">rural electrification</keyword>, <keyword id="19916494" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sitharaman" source="keywords">Sitharaman</keyword> highlighted that every village in India now has access to electricity. She noted that in 2014, many villages across India, including those near state capitals, lacked even basic infrastructure for electrification. She said "I don't think any village in India is unelectrified today. Households have received the connections. So, if I remember the situation in 2014, there were still many villages in many parts of India, some even very close to the state capital, provincial headquarters, without even a pole to receive the electric wires. Now, all that has been overcome. Houses have got their electricity." The Finance Minister also discussed the <keyword id="19971121" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jal-Jeevan-Mission" source="keywords">Jal Jeevan Mission</keyword>, a program initiated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to provide tap water connections to every household. She explained, "Earlier, one tap water connection was provided to a village, from where everyone would take water to their home. But under the 'Jal Jeevan Mission,' each and every house gets a tap water connection." Sitharaman emphasized the positive impact of this initiative on health, sanitation, and convenience for millions of Indian families. Turning to the economic empowerment of <keyword id="20101496" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="municipalities" source="keywords">municipalities</keyword> and urban centers, Sitharaman noted that these local governments are receiving increased autonomy and financial support. She explained that municipalities receive a portion of taxes collected by the central government, along with additional funds based on the Finance Commission's recommendations. "Over and above, today, we are enhancing their capacities to raise resources from the market. Municipalities are a very powerful instrument of economic development and they, on their own, are raising a lot of resources," she added. Sitharaman also expressed confidence in India's economic growth and its appeal to <keyword id="20632552" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-investors" source="keywords">global investors</keyword>. "The policies are working, reforms are happening, and they shall continue to happen," she stated, adding that "greater liberalisation of the economy will be there and, in a way, we are accessing newer markets and speaking about the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword> in more avenues and platforms that will attract more investors." With ongoing reforms and increased global engagement, Sitharaman noted, India is solidifying its position as a significant player on the world stage, expanding its economic reach and inviting foreign investment.

No village in India left without access to electricity, claims FM Nirmala Sitharaman

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The market is underestimating how much the Federal Reserve's will cut rates in 2025, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li>The Fed fund rate will drop to 3.25-3.50% by the end of 2025, the bank estimates.</li></ul>Markets are underestimating how much the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates next year, Goldman Sachs predicted.In the bank's latest macro outlook, it estimated that the Fed funds rate could drop to 3.25%-3.5% in 2025.That's considerably below what investors see as the highest-probability outcome, as calculated by the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">CME FedWatch Tool</a>. It currently sees a 30% chance of rates being in the 3.75%-4.0% range by the end of next year.The disconnect reflects the degree to which investors are wary about the potentially <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">inflationary effect</a> President-elect Donald Trump's policies could have. The Fed generally tackles inflation by raising interest rates, which is seen challenging the central bank's plan for further easing.But Goldman forecasts that Trump's tariffs might actually justify rate cuts by prompting an economic slowdown in the early going. In these situations, the Fed eases monetary policy to revive activity."If anything, the threat of a near-term growth drag from tariffs and the Fed leadership's continued preference for frontloaded policy normalization have strengthened our confidence in sequential cuts through early next year," Goldman analysts led by chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote on Thursday.As for reinflation concerns, Goldman assumes that Trump's tariffs will only target China and auto exports coming from Europe and Mexico. In this scenario, US core inflation would reach a "benign" level of 2.4% by late 2025.However, if the incoming president follows through on a pledge to implement across-the-board 10% tariffs on all US trade, that figure would rise to 3.1% by early 2026.Still, Goldman noted that disinflation has been ongoing globally, and is a trend that is likely to keep up."Against this backdrop, we do not expect the US election outcome to derail the policy normalization process that is currently underway, and see most major central banks easing significantly further through 2025," the note said.To be sure, Goldman acknowledged that Trump's policies remain uncertain, creating the risk of an earlier stopping point for the Fed's cutting cycle. Much of this will depend on the Fed's willingness to respond preemptively to future inflation boosts.But for now, growth risks are the Fed's key priority, Goldman noted.

Investors are underestimating how deep rate cuts will be in 2025, Goldman says

<keyword id="19900795" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-investors" source="keywords">Foreign investors</keyword> are currently making a beeline for <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword>, enthused by the gush of <keyword id="23496485" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-stimulus" source="keywords">financial stimulus</keyword> injected by the government into the Chinese economy. While this may have temporarily sent their stock markets soaring, a recent report by the <keyword id="19899824" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="World Bank">World Bank</keyword> notes that this might not be enough to push back the <keyword id="19904090" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-slowdown" source="keywords">economic slowdown</keyword> that has already set in. China's growth rate is projected to slack further to 4.3% in 2025, down from its present rate of 4.8%. The <keyword id="19916574" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="OECD" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="OECD" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="OECD">OECD</keyword> also expects the country's growth to slow down to 4.5% in 2025 Experts believe that the recent economic push by the government, which includes lowering reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5% to 6.6%, lowering mortgage rates, injecting $142 billion into banks, among others, are too little to sustain long-term recovery. Notably, lowering RRR frees up $140 billion for banks to lend, while reducing mortgages and minimum down payments for housing purchases are directed to spur up the Chinese real estate segment. Per <keyword id="19906485" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Goldman-Sachs" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Goldman Sachs" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Goldman Sachs">Goldman Sachs</keyword>, weak domestic demand, dwindling consumer confidence and spending and an endless real-estate crisis are some of the main reasons for the slowdown.The average Chinese citizen still grapples with job insecurity, stagnant salaries, and depreciating real estate and equity values. For instance, China's last public holiday of the year, the Golden Week, which ended on October 7 and commemorates the nation's founding, saw 2% less spending per domestic trip, as compared to pre-pandemic levels. "Low tourism spending per head and subdued services prices highlight the still weak domestic demand and continued consumption downgrading in the country,” the analysts at GS noted. <h2>Its all temporary</h2>The <keyword id="21360606" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hang-Seng-index" source="keywords">Hang Seng index</keyword>, which is up by 4.22% today, has been seeing a meteoric rise over the past few weeks. Inching up by a little over 24% over the last month, the Chinese markets have been seeing an significant influx of foreign investment, largely at the expense of other emerging markets like India. Foreign investors had offloaded shares worth Rs 27,142 crore between the first and third of this month, after foreign investments reached a staggering record-high of Rs 93,538 crore in September, as per NSDL data. Over the last 10 days, FIIs have constantly been net sellers, while DIIs have been net buyers. As of October 10th, DII (Domestic Institutional Investors) have put in Rs 50,183 crores in Indian markets, almost balancing out Rs 49,305.29 crore withdrawn by foreign investors. But whether this trend of FII inflow in China continues will largely depend on the fundamentals their economy, an area where India has an edge, thanks to strong confidence of domestic investors. Viram Shah, CEO of Vested Finance highlights that while the Hang Seng index's recent 26% surge over the last month has caught investors' attention, and while this bullish trend is expected to continue, driven by low Chinese stock valuations and hopes for economic improvement from government stimulus, there lies a long road ahead. "Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulled out $5.4 billion from Indian equities over five consecutive sessions, ending Monday, October 7. While this suggests a possible rotation of funds from India to China, how long this shift will last will depend on the Chinese government’s ability to resolve the structural economic issues. While the market rally is encouraging, more policy steps are needed to boost economic activity and confidence in China", he added.

All eyes on China: Rush of foreign investors can do little to stave off a slowdown, says World Bank

Following six consecutive days of losses, Indian stock indices surged back into positive territory on Tuesday. Analysts attribute this recovery to a combination of bottom-fishing by investors and a boost in market sentiment driven by the <keyword id="19931558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bharatiya-Janata-Party" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bharatiya Janata Party" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bharatiya Janata Party">Bharatiya Janata Party</keyword> (BJP) heading for a third straight term in the Haryana assembly elections. The <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> closed at 81,634.81 points, gaining 584.81 points, or 0.72 percent, while the <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> ended at 25,013.15 points, up 217.40 points, or 0.88 percent. All sectoral indices posted gains, with the notable exception of Nifty Metal. Nifty Media, Auto, <keyword id="19933821" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pharma" source="keywords">Pharma</keyword>, and Oil &amp; Gas emerged as top performers for the day. Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President of Research at Religare Broking Ltd, noted a shift in investor strategy amid the <keyword id="20964705" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="market-recovery" source="keywords">market recovery</keyword>. “Traders should consider using this recovery to lighten positions and remain selective for long trades. We continue to favor IT and pharma stocks for their resilience and recommend careful stock selection in other sectors,” Mishra said. The recent string of losses, spanning six sessions, saw the Sensex and Nifty plummet by 4 to 5 percent. Market watchers attributed the dip to a correction phase following a recent bullish run, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly following a fresh wave of violence between Israel and Iran. <keyword id="19931025" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="V-K-Vijayakumar" source="keywords">V K Vijayakumar</keyword>, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, highlighted a cautious approach for investors navigating the current market landscape. “The best strategy now is to accumulate high-quality, fairly valued bluechips like the leading financials and IT stocks,” Vijayakumar advised. Despite the recent downturn, Indian stocks had previously benefited from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates by a steep 50 basis points, a move that has been supporting capital inflows into emerging markets like India. <keyword id="20015748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-portfolio-investors" source="keywords">Foreign portfolio investors</keyword> (FPIs), who have been net buyers for four consecutive months, continued to offer some support to the Indian markets through September. Looking ahead, investors are focused on upcoming policy announcements and corporate earnings reports. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>’s (RBI) monetary policy outcome on Wednesday is expected to provide additional market cues. The RBI has maintained the repo rate at 6.5 percent for nine consecutive meetings, a policy stance that is closely watched by both domestic and international investors. As the market gears up for the release of India Inc.’s second-quarter earnings, analysts suggest that investor sentiment may further stabilise if results meet or exceed expectations. The BJP's continued strength in Haryana has lent a boost to market confidence, signaling political stability and continuity that many view as favorable for India’s economic trajectory. (With inputs from agencies)

Stocks rebound as BJP's Haryana win spurs optimism in Indian markets

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued their bullish stance on <keyword id="19965036" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-stocks" source="keywords">Indian stocks</keyword>, infusing Rs 16,881.03 crore in the second week of September, according to data from the <keyword id="20070086" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="National-Securities-Depository-Limited" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="National Securities Depository Limited" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="National Securities Depository Limited">National Securities Depository Limited</keyword> (<keyword id="20519694" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSDL" source="keywords">NSDL</keyword>). The data covers investments made between September 9 and September 13, 2024. The highest inflow was recorded on Wednesday, September 11, when FPIs invested a substantial Rs 2,962.44 crore into Indian stocks, signalling strong confidence in the country's <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword>. This week's <keyword id="19895437" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment" source="keywords">investment</keyword> marked a continuation of the positive trend seen in the first week of September, during which FPIs made net investments totaling Rs 10,980 crore. With the latest inflows, the total foreign investment in Indian equities for September now stands at Rs 27,861 crore, indicating robust interest from global investors. The experts noted that the upcoming US federal meeting on rate cuts will remain a key focus point along with <keyword id="20052796" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="corporate-earnings" source="keywords">corporate earnings</keyword> for both domestic and <keyword id="19900795" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Foreign-investors" source="keywords">foreign investors</keyword>. "Indian markets overcame last week's negative sentiments stirred by SEBI's deadline over FII's disclosure norms and recession fears in the US. Despite volatility, DIIs and FIIs flows remained positive as a strong monsoon, and an expectation of an uptick in demand during the festive season drove investor sentiment. Going ahead, market focus will be on the upcoming FOMC meeting next week, while domestic market direction will also be influenced by domestic corporate earnings" said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, <keyword id="19933343" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Geojit-Financial-Services" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Geojit Financial Services" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Geojit Financial Services">Geojit Financial Services</keyword>. The consistent <keyword id="21008975" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FPI-inflows" source="keywords">FPI inflows</keyword> reflect the increasing attractiveness of Indian markets, driven by strong economic fundamentals, improving corporate earnings, and positive global sentiment towards emerging markets. Earlier, the net foreign investment in August in the Indian equity market declined to Rs 7,322 crore, marking the lowest monthly investment in the past three months. This drop is particularly stark when compared to July, where foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) had invested Rs 32,359 crore, according to data from the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL). As per the data by NSDL, throughout August, foreign investors were largely net sellers in the Indian equity market.

You Searched For "investor confidence" and got 12 results

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