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2 mins read

Here's why the inverted yield curve isn't as bad for the stock market as many fear, Leuthold Group's Jim Paulsen says

Despite the inverted yield curve's notoriety as a recession bellwether, stocks still could perform …

Jennifer Sor   


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Recession signals are flashing again in the bond market as closely watched Treasury yields invert for the first time since April

A key recessionary signal flashed Monday, with the 2-year US treasury yield moving to its highest l…

Phil Rosen   


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3 mins read

BANK OF AMERICA: One of Wall Street's most dreaded recession signals is being wildly distorted - here's what really matters and what may happen next

Short-term rates are rising (and pushing the yield curve closer to inversion) partly because the Fe…

Akin Oyedele   


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US stocks slip as the 10-year Treasury yield continues to climb and nears a 3-year high

US stocks were mostly lower on Tuesday as the yield on the 10-year Treasury continued to rise and o…

Phil Rosen   


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Here's why history's most reliable recession indicator no longer works

Banks' high level of cash reserves means they are less reliant on borrowing for the short term to f…

Matthew Fox   


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The most accurate sign of a coming recession is not what you think it is - and it's on the verge of flashing

"While the inversion says trouble is coming in the medium term, the un-inversion says trouble is co…

Matthew Fox   


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One of the most accurate recession predictors is only half right. Here's what the yield curve is actually saying, according to a market veteran

"But we certainly had a recession in housing. We certainly had a recession in retailing, as consume…

Filip De Mott   


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The inventor of the market's most famous recession indicator is confident the inverted yield curve is accurately calling a slowdown in 2024

Campbell Harvey's famous inverted yield curve indicator has preceded every recession for the last 5…

Phil Rosen   


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1 min read

This classic recession signal has been flashing red, but Goldman Sachs is unfazed

The inverted yield curve has been historically predictive of an imminent economic downturn – …

Joseph Wilkins   


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A majority of strategists no longer think the most famous recession indicator is reliable, new survey shows

22 of 34 strategists polled by Reuters now consider the inverted yield curve to be less reliable th…

Filip De Mott   


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A closely watched recession indicator is flashing again after the Fed minutes reveal another big rate hike could be on the way

The Treasury yield curve deepened its inversion after the release of the Fed's June minutes, signal…

Jennifer Sor   


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Saloni Sardana   


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All the signs are pointing to a recession that'll cost Americans their jobs, veteran bond investor Jeff Gundlach says: 'Layoffs are coming'

The rising unemployment rate and a de-inverted yield curve are signs that an economic slump is comi…

George Glover   


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Here's why an inverted yield curve is bad news for America

At the other end of the spectrum, a flattening yield curve occurs when short-term rates are increas…

Jonathan Garber   


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ROSENBERG: My favorite predictive tool nailed what happened in 1987

Back in that antsy period in 1987, the one thing that did not happen was that the yield curve did n…

Akin Oyedele   


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What people get wrong about the market's favorite recession signal, according to a Wall Street strategist

David Kelly: I think the Fed will keep on tightening. I mean, the economy's doing very well. We've …

Kara Chin,Jacqui Frank,Sara S…   


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1 min read

The Treasury yield curve inversion is deepening as a key warning of a coming recession flashes its strongest signal since 2007

A deeper yield curve inversion is an expression of investors' expectations for a recession in the n…

Phil Rosen   


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A notorious recession indicator says that an economic downturn will begin this quarter, Bank of America says

Bank of America strategists pointed to a highly-watched indicator that predicted the recessions of …

Jennifer Sor   


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A part of the Treasury yield curve has just seen its steepest inversion since 2000 as bond markets flash recession warnings

The gap between the two-year and 30-year notes is the widest in 22 years. An inverted yield curve h…

Brian Evans   


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3 mins read

A closely followed recession indicator just flashed red for the 2nd time this year

"Every U.S. recession in the past 60 years was preceded by a negative term spread, that is, an inve…

Arjun Reddy