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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Global trade is rapidly slowing after a rapid post-pandemic recovery in 2021 and 2022.</li><li>Fitch Ratings said trade will expand 1.9% this year, down sharply from 2022's growth rate of 5.5%.</li></ul><p>The post-pandemic recovery in global trade that spanned the last two years is slowing dramatically, <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/world-trade-now-slowing-sharply-01-06-2023">Fitch Ratings</a> said Thursday.</p><p>The ratings agency expects international trade to grow by 1.9% this year, down from the 5.5% growth rate seen in 2022, and sees world GDP rising by 2%, down from last year's 2.7%. </p><p>"Trade growth seems unlikely to outpace GDP in the medium term, as globalization stalls," Fitch said.</p><p>Factors for the trade slowdown include tighter monetary policy, declining fiscal support, and the resurgence of the services sector, which contributes less to trade than the goods sector does.</p><p>In fact, the volume of the trade in goods is actually falling, with gains in services trade only partially offsetting that dip as tourism and transportation recover, according to Fitch.</p><p>Meanwhile, supply-chain bottlenecks that held back trade earlier have been largely resolved, while services are becoming less internationally specialized and only account for 22% of all trade.</p><p>The declining demand for goods has caused industrial production to cool rapidly, Fitch added. The deceleration has become evident in the softer prices of commodities such as <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/copper-price-economic-bellwether-growth-china-reopening-inventory-manufacturing-metal-2023-5">copper</a> and falling <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-economy-market-alarms-wall-street-demand-investment-semiconductors-growth-2023-5">manufacturing output</a> in China. </p><p>"Our forecast of a flattening in the ratio of trade/GDP contrasts with the steady rise seen from the early 1990s to the middle of the last decade," Fitch said. "But while some evidence of trade redirection is emerging, there is no evidence at this stage that globalization is going into reverse."</p><p>The forecast comes as global trade has seen major upheaval since Russia invaded Ukraine last year. In particular, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-india-russian-oil-crude-moscow-war-ukraine-volumes-kpler-2023-4">Russian energy exports</a> have shifted toward Asia and away from Europe.</p><p>Meanwhile, the US and China have escalated their trade war, with chipmakers and other high-tech sectors being targeted.</p>

International trade is slowing rapidly as the COVID recovery fizzles and globalization stalls, Fitch says

<ul><li><strong>Among the group of top 10 economies, the most positive prospects in terms of international trade are related to India, said an S&amp;P report. </strong></li><li><strong>It also said that the country does not seem to be impacted by the global economic slowdown to a large extent.</strong></li></ul>New Delhi [India], November 18 (ANI): Among the group of top 10 economies, the most positive prospects in terms of international trade are related to India and the country does not seem to be impacted by the global economic slowdown to a large extent, S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence said in its latest Global Trade Monitor report.<br /><br /> The top 10 economies by GDP in 202, according to the report, include the US, EU27, mainland China, Japan, the UK, India, Brazil, South Korea, Canada, and Russia. These countries are responsible for approximately four-fifths of the world GDP and three-quarters of global exports, with most trade carried out within the group.<br /><br /> The section in the report on expectations for international trade in the next months said the global economic slowdown now is more and more visible.<br /><br /> Monthly historical data clearly shows that in the top 10 economies exports are primarily impacted slowing down in the majority of economies within the group.<br /><br /> "The picture is slightly more optimistic for imports, yet the situation is expected to deteriorate in the forthcoming months for both exports and imports, which is reflected in the most recent PMI NExO readouts," the report said.<br /><br /> The consequences of the global economic slowdown are not that apparent in the monthly data for 2022 as in the first three quarters of the year, the dynamics of exports and imports were relatively strong in the top 10 economies.<br /><br /> "This should translate in still positive growth in 2022 from the yearly perspective, yet in 2023 global trade contraction may be expected. GTAS Forecasting expects trade recovery to start in 2024, returning to the long-term stable growth path," it added.<br /><br /> On economic growth, the report said the months ahead will likely bring recessions in Europe, the US, Canada, and parts of Latin America. With moderate growth in Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa, the world economy can avoid a downturn, but growth will be minimal.<br /><br /> Global real GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.9 per cent in 2021 to 2.8 per cent current year and 1.4 per cent in 2023. Notably, S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence revised down the 2023 growth rate 0.6 percentage point from the last month's forecast. (ANI)<br /><br />

India has the best international trade prospects among top 10 economies: S&P

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks traded near record highs as investors are optimistic about US employment data. </li><li>Chinese and German trade data beat predictions, signalling a stronger-than-expected economic rebound. </li><li>The Bank of England revised economic growth forecasts up and confirmed its current monetary policies. </li></ul><p>Global stocks traded near record highs on Friday, as traders and investors remained optimistic about US  employment data due later in the day. Initial jobless claims in the US fell in the latest week to a post-COVID 19 low point, further underscoring the resilience of the economic recovery. </p><p>"Our US economists are looking for strong nonfarm payrolls growth of +1.275 million, and a decline in the unemployment rate to a post-pandemic low of 5.7%," Jim Reid, research strategist at Deutsche Bank wrote ahead of the US job data release. "Though of course, even job growth at that level would still leave the total number of nonfarm payrolls more than 7 million beneath the pre-Covid peak," he pointed out. </p><p><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestm=ingest">Dow Jones</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestm=ingest">Nasdaq</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestedium=ingest">S&amp;P 500</a> futures were flat on Friday morning after the S&amp;P closed just below a record high on Thursday and the Nasdaq made gains after its longest series of daily losses since October. </p><p>US 10-year bond yields inched higher and were last at 1.575% ahead of the jobs data release. </p><p>European equities rose after the Bank of England revised its economic growth forecasts upwards the previous day and confirmed that it would maintain its current monetary policies, and following strong regional trade and manufacturing activity data. </p><p>The British <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/ftse_100?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestm=ingest">FTSE 100</a> was last up 0.42% on Friday morning, whilst the pan-European <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/euro_stoxx_50?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestm=ingest">Euro Stoxx 50</a> had gained 0.34% and the German <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dax?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestm=ingest">DAX</a> was up 1%. </p><p>"The dilemma investors are facing right now is that while strong US economic data is positive news, the accelerating growth is increasing the risk of an overheating economy and the Federal Reserve being forced to hike rates early," Milan Cutkovic, market analyst at Axi said. </p><p>Chinese trade data showed a jump in exports in April that pushed the country's trade surplus to $42.86 billion, a 32.3% year on year increase. This comfortably beat the expected surplus of $28.1 billion. </p><p>A separate survey showed that China's service industry performed strongly in April, as the Caixin Services PMI rose to 56.30. Analysts had expected 54.2. A reading of 50 separates growth from contraction. </p><p>"It indicated that the directional of travel for China's domestic recovery continues in the right direction. It has also dampened any negative feedback on the tense geopolitical front between China, and seemingly, the rest of the entire planet this week.", Jeffrey Halley, senior <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword> analyst at OANDA, said. </p><p>Nevertheless, the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/shanghai_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestgest">Shanghai composite</a> closed 0.56% down. Elsewhere in Asia, the Japanese <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nikkei_225?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestgest">Nikkei 225</a> rose 0.1% and Hong Kong's <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/hang_seng?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestm=ingest">Hang Seng</a> index gained 0.14%. </p><p><keyword id="35149" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="commodities">Commodities</keyword> continued to soar, as rising demand was reflected in global trade data, with copper reaching its highest in at least a decade. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestm=ingest">WTI</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=brent?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingestm=ingest">Brent crude</a> <keyword id="6359072" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil">oil</keyword> futures were flat on Friday morning, trading at $64.67 and $68.09 per barrel, respectively. </p>

Global stocks near record highs ahead of key US jobs data and as international trade accelerates

New Delhi, Nov 14 () The fourteen-day India International Trade Fair opened here on Thursday albeit with lesser availability of space this year owing to Pragati Maidan's ongoing make-over.
<p> Union Transport and MSME Minister Nitin Gadkari inaugurated the fair and suggested that the ITPO (India Trade Promotion Organisation) should explore public-private-partnership model to build 30 to 40 mega exhibition-cum-convention centres across the country.
</p><p> "By supporting government as a facilitator we can make atleast 30 to 40 centres like Pragati Maidan in the country. This country needs and the government's capacity is limited, budgetary constraints are there but this activity by supporting some government equity, we can make it economically viable," Gadkari said adding that this type of activity is going to create more employment opportunities.
</p><p> Besides, Gadkari highlighted that the World Bank, ADB and KfW are ready to provide a credit line for MSMEs at a low interest cost and, he wants to provide this credit line to the poor and economically backward entrepreneurs in backward areas.
</p><p> Organisers of the fair ITPO expressed confidence that the redevelopment of Pragati Maidan into a state-of-the-art integrated exhibition cum convention centre (IECC) shall be completed before the end of next year.
</p><p> The ITPO is the nodal agency under the administrative control of the Commerce Ministry entrusted with the redevelopment of Pragati Maidan.
</p><p> In his address, ITPO CMD L C Goyal gave an assurance that the IITF 2020 would be five times bigger than the scale on which the fair is being held this year.
</p><p> "I am quite confident that before the end of next year would deliver this project (IECC)," Goyal said.
</p><p> Several countries, including Australia, Iran, the UK and Vietnam will participate in the 14-days fair.
</p><p> The theme for the 39th edition of the fair (November 14-27, 2019) is 'Ease of Doing Business' inspired by the unique achievement of India for rising to the 63rd rank on the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index from 142nd rank in year 2014.
</p><p> This year the status of 'Partner Country' has been accorded to 'the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan' and 'the Republic of Korea' will be the 'Focus Country'.
</p><p> Bihar and Jharkhand will be the focus states in this edition of the fair. Entry tickets for business days per person will be available for Rs 500 and season ticket for Rs 1,800.
</p> For all visitors during public days (November 19-27, 2019), ticket charges will be Rs 60 (adult) and Rs 40 (child) on working days and on Saturday or Sunday or Public Holiday the tickets will be Rs 120 (adult) and Rs 60 (child).  RSN SHW
SHW

India International Trade Fair opens with ease of doing business theme

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul><li><strong>International trade is an important part of the US economy and of the economies of the 50 states and Washington, DC.</strong></li><li><strong>The US Census Bureau tracks imports and exports of goods, broken down by state.</strong></li><li><strong>Business Insider made two maps showing the biggest import and export trade partners for each state.</strong></li></ul><p><br />The US economy is an enormous behemoth, made up of the 51 component economies of the states and Washington, DC.</p><p>As international trade is an important part of the national economy, it's also a big part of many state economies as well.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/index.html">US Census Bureau tracks imports and exports of goods</a>, broken down by state. Using that data, Business Insider made two maps showing the biggest import and export trade partners for each state by dollar value of goods traded in 2016.</p><p>Looming large in both exports and imports are the US's NAFTA partner nations and neighbors of Canada and Mexico. Many states imported more goods from China than any other country.</p><p>Here's every state's biggest goods export trading partner. 33 states exported the most goods to Canada in 2016: </p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from US Census Bureau" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5a0a1a8e35876ea2008b5c38-960/export-countries-state-map.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span></a><p class="source"><span>Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from US Census Bureau</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>And the biggest trade partner for imported goods. Just 15 states imported more goods from Canada than any other country, while 22 states had China as their biggest import partner:</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from US Census Bureau</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-battery-model-3-production-issues-slow-battery-assembly-2017-11">Tesla's biggest problem is one nobody saw coming</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

Every US state's most important international trading partners

<strong><br /></strong><ul><li><strong>The World Trade Organisation (WTO), the <keyword id="6354424" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-bank">World Bank</keyword>, and the <keyword id="6366068" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="international-monetary-fund">International Monetary Fund</keyword> (IMF) all came together to ask for urgent reforms in international trade. </strong></li><li><strong>In a joint report, the institutions focused on modernising the WTO regulations to focus on the digital arena in order to ‘harness the unique strength’ of the organisation in changing times.<br /></strong></li><li><strong>The Director General of the WTO, has earlier stated that the current global trade tensions have the potential to undermine the economic order that was established after <keyword id="6357515" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-War-II">World War II</keyword>.</strong></li></ul>The functions of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank may vary, but the three institutions came together to publish a joint report expressing the urgency to reform international trade. <br /><br />They expressed the importance of ‘harnessing the unique strength of the WTO’ by focusing on global e-commerce regulations, improved negotiating mechanisms, and increased transparency in trade policies around the world.<br /><br />The report titled, ‘<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2018/09/28/093018-reinvigorating-trade-and-inclusive-growth">Reinvigorating Trade and Inclusive Growth</a>’ comes right after the president of the United States, <keyword id="6354484" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Donald-Trump">Donald Trump</keyword>, harshly questioned America’s involvement in global institutions like the WTO.<br /><br /><strong>The question for India<br /></strong><br />Ordinarily, the WTO has seven judges in its Dispute Settlement Court, but currently, only four are in positions of appointment. Reports indicate that the US has been blocking more people from coming on board. If the number of judges gets any lower, the WTO won’t have enough people on the panel to deliver rulings. <br /><br />It’s <a href="https://www.dailyo.in/business/wto-donald-trump-trade-wars-world-bank-agriculture-subsidies/story/1/26544.html">popular</a> opinion is that the organisation is currently failing its role and being used as an instrument for retaliatory tariff wars. <br /><br />The question for India is a little more complicated than just being protectionist or pro-globalisation because the WTO, though a global institution, has often been accused of being biased against developing nations. <br /><br />Last year India even <a href="https://www.livemint.com/Politics/z5KwdAVralEF8wAsSxfTaL/India-accuses-WTO-of-raking-up-new-issues.html">told the WTO</a> that, “Such presentations by the secretariat within or outside the WTO go far beyond the remit of the functions of the WTO secretariat, and violate the letter and spirit of the agreement establishing the WTO,” when the organisation was seeking outcomes on e-commerce and investment facilitation initiatives.<br /><br />Director General, Roberto Azevedo, had earlier <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/The-man-in-charge-of-overseeing-global-trade-says-the-first-shots-have-been-fired-in-a-trade-war-and-the-situation-is-extremely-serious/articleshow/65344601.cms">warned</a> world leaders that the current trade tensions have the potential to cause great harm to the world economy and it undermines the trading order that was established after World War II. <br /><br />The ripple events will cause job loss and hit economic growth, with the under-developed and developing nations bearing the brunt.<br />

Three of the world’s leading financial institutions band together for international trade reforms

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd"><html><body><p><strong><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><a href="http://bs.serving-sys.com/BurstingPipe/adServer.bs?cn=tf&amp;c=20&amp;mc=click&amp;pli=17871972&amp;PluID=0&amp;ord=%5Btimestamp%5D" target="_blank"></a><p class="source"><span>UPS</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></strong></p><p>Going global presents significant opportunities, but it also brings about many challenges. In today's increasingly complex global environment, businesses in all industries must be prepared for everything from counterfeiting and theft to the impact of widely differing country regulations. To help ensure that end customers are not affected by these complexities, here are some actions that companies can take to secure their supply chain and make cross-border business a safer bet.</p><h2><strong>Collaborate</strong></h2><p>Don't go it alone. Instead, consider teaming up with domestically based services, such as a third-party logistics provider. You'll get the benefit of global reach without having to arrange matters remotely - and in a different language. Following in-country quality and regulatory requirements is one of the first lines of defense against supply chain disruption when operating globally. Collaborating with knowledgeable international distributors, logistics, and transportation providers will make sure your products reach your customers.</p><h2><strong>Find the right partners</strong></h2><p>Collaboration is great, but it's important that you're working with a partner that has the experience you need.</p><p>"Many smaller companies don't have the employees and the bandwidth to conduct due diligence on potential partners they're considering engaging," says Mark Quinlan, director of healthcare strategy at UPS. Jumping in too early with the wrong partners can be a crucial misstep.</p><p>When choosing a logistics provider, make sure they have strength in quality assurance and regulatory assistance (QA/RA). In addition, work with a provider that operates a global platform so that you can be sure its QA/RA team will understand the supply-chain complexities in each of your target markets. The ideal fit, Quinlan notes, would be having a resource in your home country that understands local requirements globally.</p><p>Sometimes, larger companies make the mistake of selecting partners on a procurement basis alone, with cost being the primary deciding factor. This can eventually lead to many different logistics players involved in individual markets - increasing complexity, adding more to your plate, and creating additional risk.</p><p>Companies should also use a carrier that has GPS capability to ensure that shipments are hitting specific checkpoints and arriving on time and intact. Some providers can supply monitoring and intervention services that can alert manufacturers to problems in transit, and can even take predetermined corrective action.</p><h2><strong>Enact safety measures</strong></h2><p>When it comes to cargo theft, criminals are getting more sophisticated. Supply-chain executives must stay one step ahead, frequently reevaluating current security protocols and implementing of stronger measures where necessary to protect goods in.</p><p>It makes sense to choose a logistics partner that thoroughly investigates small breaches and inventory "shrinkage," since what seems to be insignificant loss may in fact reveal gaps in security. If there's documented product loss, it's important to make sure your provider conducts an investigation.</p><p>In addition, Quinlan suggests not moving high-value freight on holidays. Transporting product during this time often means it will sit idle in a distribution yard or hand-off point, such as a border crossing where it is more likely to fall prey to theft.</p><p>In the end, moving into international markets could mean a tremendous uptick in business. But starting up global trade without doing due diligence can result in greater risk and possible loss. International waters can be tough to navigate, but collaborating with the right partners and being especially thorough can help ensure smooth journeys and safe arrivals.</p><p><a href="http://bs.serving-sys.com/BurstingPipe/adServer.bs?cn=tf&amp;c=20&amp;mc=click&amp;pli=17871972&amp;PluID=0&amp;ord=%5Btimestamp%5D" target="_blank"><strong>To read more from UPS, click here. </strong></a></p><p><em>This post is sponsored by <a href="http://bs.serving-sys.com/BurstingPipe/adServer.bs?cn=tf&amp;c=20&amp;mc=click&amp;pli=17942773&amp;PluID=0&amp;ord=%5Btimestamp%5D">UPS</a>.</em></p></body></html><p class="tagline">Find out <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/sponsor-posts">more about Sponsored Content</a>.</p>

How to reduce international trade risks

<p><strong><br /><br /><keyword id="35028" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="international-trade">International trade</keyword> could be about to take a hit.<br /><br /></strong></p><ul><li><strong>Global trade tensions continue to escalate, with a trade war between the US and China looming.</strong></li><li><strong>China, Mexico, and Canada are likely to be directly impacted by any trade conflict.</strong></li><li><strong>Other major economies will also be hit, with analysts at Citi analysing ripple effects in a recent note.</strong></li><li><strong>Thailand, Taiwan, and Switzerland are among nations that could be damaged by rising <keyword id="44380" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="protectionism">protectionism</keyword>.</strong></li></ul> <br /><br /><br /><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/stock-market-news-global-markets-fight-back-as-trump-trade-war-fears-calm-2018-4">As global trade tensions continue to rise</a>, economists continue to worry about what a full-scale trade war will mean for the global economy and for individual economies around the world.<br /><br />President Trump is leading the protectionist surge and his trade-based aggression has so far largely been focused on China, Mexico, and Canada. Earlier this week the President announced an initial list of Chinese products that will be <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-imposes-china-tariffs-start-trade-war-hurt-stocks-dow-futures-2018-3">subject to roughl</a><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-imposes-china-tariffs-start-trade-war-hurt-stocks-dow-futures-2018-3">y $50 billion in new tariffs, </a><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-china-tariff-product-list-trade-war-2018-4"></a>including raw materials, construction machinery, agricultural equipment, electronics, medical devices, and consumer goods.<br /><br /><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/china-tariffs-on-usa-trump-trade-war-escalates-2018-4">China quickly hit back with </a><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/china-tariffs-on-usa-trump-trade-war-escalates-2018-4">plans to impose tariffs on more than 100 American products</a> with a combined trading value of over $50 billion.<br /><br />It remains unclear whether the tariffs will ever actually be imposed, but if they are it would likely have a major impact on both economies.<br /><br />Beyond the obvious nations that will be directly impacted by US tariffs - the likes of China, Mexico, and Canada - other countries around the world are also likely to suffer in the face of increased import and export costs.<br /><br />Quantifying the exact impacts on a country-by-country basis is difficult, but analysts at Citi have had a go, using individual country data on the percentage of GDP that comes from exports to the US, as well as stock market exposure to the US.<br /><br />You can see the chart below mapping likely exposure:<a class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5ac5dcc287826b2c008b45cd-960/screen shot 2018-04-05 at 085942.png"></a><p>Citi<br /><br /><br />A team of Citi analysts led by Robert Buckland wrote: "The direct economic impact of recently announced tariffs is small. But a further rise in protectionism is a downside risk for growth and upside risk for inflation.<br /><br />"Export-oriented (especially to the US) stock markets (Korea, Taiwan) and sectors (Industrials, Autos, Tech) are most exposed."<br /><br />While Citi has worries about growing trade tensions, it does not believe that a full-scale trade war is likely to materialise.<br /><br />"Citi economists' base case remains for moderate tightening of trade and investment rules, not a full blown trade war," the analysts wrote.<br /><br />            </p><h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/earnings-growth-can-rescue-stocks-from-trade-war-disaster-2018-3">There's only one thing that can rescue stocks from a trade war disaster</a></h3>        <pre style="display: none;">function receiveMessage(event){ console.log(event.data.fullscreen); Android.fullscreen(event.data.fullscreen); }window.addEventListener("message", receiveMessage, false);</pre>        <br />

This chart shows the countries most at risk from Trump's trade war with China

<p>As we move into the final stages of the US presidential election, in which both Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-tpp-2016-9">have questioned the merits of free trade agreements</a>, it's worth taking a look at who the US trades with.</p><p>The US Census Bureau releases <a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/index.html">annual statistics on international trade in goods (not services) at the state level</a>. The Bureau's most recent release, covering data from 2015, includes a breakdown of the top countries each state exports to and imports from, as measured by total dollar trade value.</p><p>Business Insider took a look at each state's biggest import and export trading partner.</p><p>For imports, China and Canada loom large. 23 states import more goods from China than any other country, and 15 import the most from our northern neighbor:</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from US Census Bureau" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5807cf28c5240220008b590e-960/import-countries-map.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span></a><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/index.html">Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from US Census Bureau</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Exports tend to be more focused on North America. A full 36 states export more goods to Canada than any other nation, while the four states that share a land border with Mexico send the lion's share of their exports there:</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from US Census Bureau" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5807cfce8d83b40f218b5624-960/export-countries-map-2016.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span></a><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/index.html">Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from US Census Bureau</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/waffle-house-index-used-track-hurricanes-fema-matthew-2016-10">FEMA is tracking Hurricane Matthew using the 'Waffle House Index'</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="RqdTJkNjE6P7Zz1ngH-16GYRNnLnymBd" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

Here's every state's biggest international trading partner

<p><strong><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</span></p><p class="caption">President Donald Trump</p></div><p></p></div></div></strong></p><ul><li><strong>President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested pulling the US out of the World Trade Organization, according to a report.</strong></li><li><strong>Such a move would upend the international trade system and throw economies into chaos.</strong></li><li><strong>It is unlikely that Trump will ultimately pull the US out of the WTO, the report said, and White House officials said there is currently no plan to do so.</strong></li></ul><p>President Donald Trump reportedly wants to yank the US out of the World Trade Organization, a move that would upend the decades-old international trading order.</p><p>According to Jonathan Swan <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-threat-withdraw-wto-world-trade-organization-f6ca180e-47d6-42aa-a3a3-f3228e97d715.html">at news website Axios</a>, Trump has repeatedly asked his advisers about pulling the US out fo the WTO and said that the rest of the world uses the organization to "<span>screw the United States."</span></p><p><span>Thr WTO is the international body that helps to settle trade disputes using a rules-based system, theoretically ending unfair trade practices and tamping down the threat of trade wars. The organization grew out of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and was officially founded in 1995.</span></p><p><span>Removing the US from the WTO would undermine the legitimacy of the organization, remove the largest economy from it, and ignite the possibility that countries would no longer follow the system of trade rules created by the international community.</span></p><p><span>According to Axios, White House officials push back on Trump's suggestions to leave the WTO and typically dismiss the suggestion despite Trump bringing up the idea multiple times. </span></p><p><span>To pull the US out of the WTO, Congress would have to approve the decision, so it is unlikely that Trump will resort to the move.</span></p><p><span>Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Business Insider that given Trump's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-trade-change-global-economy-landscape-2018-3">disregard for WTO rules</a> in the implementation of the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-what-is-a-tariff-meaning-for-prices-consumer-2018-3">steel and aluminum tariffs</a>, pulling the US out of the WTO is almost unnecessary for the president.</span></p><p><span>"</span>While you never know with this president, I consider it unlikely that Trump will try to pull the US out of the WTO," Alden said. "He has already shown that he can pursue the policies he wants without regard to WTO rules. The WTO has not been a constraint on this administration."</p><p>But, Alden said, if Trump did pull the plug it would be a serious negative for the global economy.</p><p>"Obviously if he did try to pull out that would create greater trade uncertainty, which is not good for the economy," he said. "But there is plenty of uncertainty as it is already."</p><p>Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin denied the report, saying that it was "an exaggeration" to say that Trump wants to pull the US out of the WTO. He called the Axios report "fake news." White House legislative director Marc Short said that Trump was frustrated with the WTO, but he was not aware of any plan to get the US out of the organization.</p><p><span>Swan defended the report on Twitter following Mnuchin's denial.</span></p><p><span>"Aka - for the Twitter users going berserk - Mnuchin LIED," Swan tweeted. "Trump has explicitly told his adviser he wants to withdraw from the WTO many times. Mnuchin has been in the room when he has said this. Every sentence in our story is accurate, including the way we framed the plausibility."</span></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-at-the-trump-north-korea-summit-2018-6">Why the North Korea summit mattered even if it was 'mostly a photo op'</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

Trump reportedly wants to pull the US out of the WTO, a move that would wreck the international trade system

<p>International trade is a big part of America's economy, and a factor in each of the fifty state economies that constitute it.</p><p>The Census Bureau publishes<a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/index.html"> annual figures on each state's international trade</a>. In addition to the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-top-export-and-import-in-every-us-state-2015-5">top 25 goods imported and exported by each state</a>, the Bureau reports the 25 countries each state imports the most from and exports the most to. We took a look at the biggest trade partners by dollar value of goods imported and exported for each state in 2014.</p><p>Here's the country that each state imports the most from. Canada and China loom large:</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image"><a title_source="Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from US Census Bureau" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/55b680a92acae700448b7d68-960/state-imports-map.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span></a><p class="source"><span>Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from US Census Bureau</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Here's the country each state exports the most to. The states that border Mexico send a lot of goods there, and a full 35 states have Canada as their biggest export partner:</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image"><a title_source="Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from US Census Bureau" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/55b680d22acae78b0e8ba340-960/exports-state-map.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span></a><p class="source"><span>Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from US Census Bureau</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/colombian-police-seized-1713-pounds-of-cocaine-2015-7">Police in Colombia just seized $240 million worth of cocaine</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="Q0NjZndjqsa9fN41PPdLRX9RTy4kuCqc" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

Here's each US state's most important international trading partner

<br /> <keyword id="2974268" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="80" keywordseo="Illicit-market">Illicit market</keyword>, with respect to seven sectors of the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=manufacturing">manufacturing</a> industry, had led to a loss of Rs 32,239 crore to the exchequer during 2014, according to a report released by <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=FICCI">FICCI</a>.<br />
 <br /> The <keyword id="6355001" type="CITY" weightage="80" keywordseo="FICCI">FICCI</keyword> report prepared by its Committee Against Smuggling and Counterfeiting Activities Destroying the <keyword id="34412" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="economy">Economy</keyword> and titled “Illicit Market: A Threat to Our National Interest” released said the loss was inclusive of both indirect and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=direct+taxes+">direct taxes</a> -- Rs 34,020 crore and Rs 5,218 crore, respectively.<br />
 <br />
According to the report, there was a loss of Rs 26,190 crore in 2012. <br />
 <br /> FICCI released its nine sector report titled 'Illicit Market: A Threat to Our National Interest' in Guwahati on Tuesday. This is a quantitative study evaluating the impact of illicit markets on various economic aspects of the <keyword id="6362048" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="Manufacturing">manufacturing</keyword> industry, including sectors like <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=FMCG">FMCG</a>, packaged foods and personal goods, computer hardware, automobiles, mobile phones, tobacco &amp; alcohol, and media and entertainment industry.<br />
 <br />
The study found that the revenue loss to the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=central+government+">central government</a> due to illicit trade increased 49.8% to Rs 13,049 crore from 2011-12 to 2013-14.<br />
 <br />
Amongst the various sectors, the maximum revenue loss was from counterfeiting and illicit trade is tobacco products—23% and Rs 9,139 crore.<br />
 <br /> When it comes to states, <keyword id="6354915" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Assam">Assam</keyword> saw a significant growth in illicit trade in these sectors in the last couple of years. It was one of the fastest growing markets for illegal cigarettes and alcohol in the country.<br />
 <br />
In 2014, illegal cigarettes accounted for more than 25% of the total cigarette market in the state.<br />
 <br />
Assam's illegal market for alcohol too grew significantly in value terms, especially for IMFL and imported liquor.<br />
 <br /> "During the last twenty years, the volume of the counterfeiting activity has increased 100 times and the size of trade in counterfeited goods is 10% of the legal <keyword id="35028" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="international-trade">international trade</keyword> (around 2% of the world's overall economic output)," said PC Jha, adviser, <keyword id="2974267" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="FICCI-CASCADE">FICCI CASCADE</keyword>, and former chairman of the <keyword id="514301" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="Central-Board-of-Excise-Customs">Central Board of Excise &amp; Customs</keyword>.<br />
 <br />
Deep Chand, advisor to FICCI CASCADE and former Special Commissioner of Police, New Delhi, said: "In the past few decades, leading intelligence and law-enforcement agencies around the world have found conclusive evidence of the increasing involvement of terrorist organizations in counterfeiting, piracy and smuggling activities to fund their activities…The need of the hour is tangible actions to increase enforcement and to impose increased punishments."<br />
 <br />
The study said that high state-level taxes like VAT and imposition of health cess on the legal cigarette industry is resulting in high prices for legal cigarettes, and this is the key reason for such an alarming growth of illegal cigarette industry in the state.<br />
 <br />
Most of the manufacturers of such illegal <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=cigarettes+">cigarettes</a> (mostly based in the surrounding states and in some northern states) evade the high central <keyword id="6356916" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="80" keywordseo="excise-duty">excise duty</keyword> and state taxes/cess and thus are able to offer their products to consumers at rock-bottom prices. Price of an illegal cigarette pack in Assam is a fifth of the price of a legal packet.<br />
 <br />
According to the study, smuggled international contraband cigarettes contribute significantly to the alarming growth of the illegal cigarette industry in Assam. Assam shares a porous international border with Bangladesh. In addition, other states in the north-east also share a similar border with Myanmar, Bangladesh and China. Therefore, there is a sizeable influx of cheap king-sized smuggled cigarettes from across the border into Assam.<br />
 <br />
These smuggled cigarettes are transported from Assam and other north eastern states to the rest of the country by air, bus and train, the report said.<br />
 <br />
"Such illegal cigarettes defeat the tobacco control objectives of the government as they neither bear any health warnings required as per Indian laws nor have other mandatory declarations like MRP, date of manufacture or place of Manufacture. High VAT compared to the rest of the country and the recent imposition of health cess on cigarettes have also resulted in large-scale diversion of the cigarettes trade into the state," the report pointed out.<br />
 <br />
(Image: Indiatimes) <br />

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